Monthly Economic Brief April 2013 issue
Executive summary Growth Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the growth for the whole year of 2012 was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. On the expenditure side, the growth was driven by all key expenditures. On the production side, the growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing.
Confidence in private s Businesses were more more pessimistic and C pessimistic.
The Economist poll rev 2013 ; consensus proje 4.4Ͳ5.0% for 2013 and
A slow down in Manufacturing and Agriculture production in February. Private consumption and investment continue their strong growth in 2013, even with a dip in February
Employment and wea Unemployment rate in January to 0.83%, still unemployment level a emerging economies.
Export decreased 0.1% in the first 2 months of 2013, with “Other export” the main drag. Decrease in export to Japan, Middle East and Rest of the World. On the other hand, Import grew at a whopping rate of 17.5%. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 19% in the period.
Thailand’s per capita in 4,420 in 2011, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
Looking forward, both Fiscal and Monetary policies are proͲgrowth. Policy rate remains at 2.75%, a rather low level, while other interest rates in the market hardly change in March.
sector was a mixed one. e optimistic, Industries Consumers less
vised down theirs for ection is now between 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 2014.
alth distribution ncreased slightly in the lowest among major and
ncome was at USD 83rd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low level by historical and international standards. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January, still a rather high level. Total system’s NPL decreased in amount and as percent to total loan in 2012. Budget deficit for the first 2 months of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period last year. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly in January 2013 due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 44% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment in the first 2 months of 2013 is positive thanks to improvement in net service income. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. Thai Baht continued to appreciate fast against a basket of key currencies in March .
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
Page 4
9 15 21 29 31 34
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
37
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
40
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
50
44
54 60 67
3
2012 ended impressively with the significantly higher than consensu Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent
7.1%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3%
5.3%
6.3% 4.6%
2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
e real growth of 6.4%, us projections
18.9%
7.8% 6.4% 4.4% 3.0%
5%
0.1%
0.4%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing recovery compare behind impressive 4Q12 GDP grow Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 4Q12 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 18.9
GDP
37
Manufacture 25.4
Hotel&Res 15.3
Other social
14.1
Construction Utilities
13.2
Transport
12.8 11.9
Mining
9.9
Financial Education
8.7
RealEstate
8.0
Trading
7.6
PublicAdmin
4.6
Health&Social
4.6
Agriculture
2.2
Private HH
1.6
Fishing
-5.8
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ed to 4Q11 was the real reason wth
7.4
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 4Q12 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 18.9
GDP 12.8
Manufacture Transport
1.3
Hotel&Res
1.1
Trading
1.1
Utilities
0.5
Financial
0.5
Other social
0.3
RealEstate
0.3
Construction
0.3
Mining
0.3
Education
0.2
Agriculture
0.2
PublicAdmin
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
-0.1
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Manufacturing recovery was the GDP growth Chart 1.07a – Real growth by sector, 2012 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 6.4
GDP
11.5
Hotel&Res 9.6
Utilities Transport
8.0
Construction
7.8 7.4
Mining
7.0
Manufacture
6.6
Financial Trading
5.2
Education
5.0
Health&Social
4.6
Agriculture
4.4
Other social
4.1
RealEstate
3.9
PublicAdmin
3.6
Private HH Fishing -3.0 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
2.3
main reason for impressive 2012
Chart 1.07b – Sectoral contributions, 2012 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 6.4
GDP 2.7
Manufacture Transport
0.8
Trading
0.7
Hotel&Res
0.5
Utilities
0.3
Agriculture
0.3
Financial
0.3
Construction
0.2
Mining
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
Education
0.1
PublicAdmin
0.1
Other social
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
0.0
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export contributed the most to to
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 4Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
18.9
I
28
X
19.0
ͲM
14.7
C
12.2
G
12.1
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
otal real GDP growth in 4Q12
Q12 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 4Q12
8.2
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
18.9
X
13.6
C
6.7
I
6.2
G
1.2
Discrpncy
ͲM
0.1
-8.9
7 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
For the whole year of 2012, grow domestic demand (I and C)
Chart 1.09a – Real growth by expenditure, 20 YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
6.4
I
17.0
G
7.4
C
6.6
ͲM
X
6.2
2.9
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
wth was driven mainly by
012 Chart 1.09b – Expenditure Contributions, 2012 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
6.4
I
3.7
C
3.4
X
2.2
G
0.7
Discrpncy
ͲM
0.0
-3.7
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 4.4Ͳ5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between r 2014
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
9
A slow down in Manufacturing pr
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.1% 190.1 172.4 159.5
179.1 166.3
149.9 137.6 123.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
roduction in February
Monthly Average 250.0
172.9
177.2
200.0
2012
2013 150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ3.5% YͲoͲY Ͳ1.2%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
The slowdown happened in most
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector February 2013, percent 39.1
Vehicles Tobacco
9.9
Machineries
9.5
Textiles
3.2
Furniture
2.1
Leather
1.9
Electrical
1.1
Mineral
-0.6
Rubber&Plastic
-1.4
Electronic
-4.9
Basic Mat
-5.4
Chemical
-6.9
Food & Bev
-7.4
Metal products
-9.4
Office automate
-9.6
Paper
-10.9
Wood products
-12.0
Petroleum
-13.4
Precision instru
-17.5
Apparel
-18.1
Transport Equip
-18.2
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
t sectors
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector February 2013, percent -4.8 7.8 -1.8 -3.0 4.3 -7.4 -13.7 -0.4 -1.2 -3.7 2.2 -12.0 -11.1 3.7 3.5 -9.3 -10.8 -4.7 -14.5 -1.1 -5.8
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Capacity utilization rate decrease instrument and Vehicles still runn Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent
68.4
69.0
67.0 63.5
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
62.9
Jan-13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Feb-13
ed in February, Precision ning over normal capacities Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector February 2013, percent Vehicles Precision instru Chemical Machineries Mineral Petroleum Electrical Rubber&Plastic Transport Equip Paper Office automate Metal products Basic Mat Food & Bev Electronic Tobacco Textiles Apparel Furniture Leather Wood products
103.4 101.5 79.6 75.7 72.1 70.6 68.2 66.7 63.6 63.3 62.6 57.8 52.4 52.3 49.2 47.9 39.6 36.6 32.9 30.1 18.5
12 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the countries w a year ago
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Indonesia Ͳ Jan China Ͳ Feb South Korea Ͳ Jan Brazil Ͳ Jan Australia Ͳ Q4 Malaysia Ͳ Jan US Ͳ Feb India Ͳ Jan Hong Kong Ͳ Q4 Pakistan Ͳ Dec Thailand Ͳ Feb Euro Area Ͳ Jan Russia Ͳ Feb -5.8
Japan Ͳ Jan -11.4
Taiwan Ͳ Feb Singapore Ͳ Feb Source: The Economist
-16.5
whose latest MPI decreased from
x 11.5 9.9 7.3 5.6 4.8 4.5 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.8 -1.2 -1.3 -2.3
13 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A little dip in Agriculture producti
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.4%
106.1
113.3 112.3 109.3 110.9
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
ion in February
Monthly Average 250.0
YͲoͲY Ͳ0.2%
129.4
122.8
200.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ9.5% 150.0
100.0
2013
2012
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
15
Private consumption continues it with a dip in February
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
111.2
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.3
130.7
134.3 127.3
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
s strong growth into 2013, even
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.1
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
2013
2012 145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.5%
135.0
YͲoͲY
3.3% 130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most consumption expenditures year even with a dip in February Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 2 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent 102.5
Passenger Car (Unit) 26.1
Commercial Car (Unit) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
17.1
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
11.3
Motocycle (Unit)
10.1
Diesel (litre)
5.3
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
3.8
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
3.1
NGV (kg.) N.A. LPG (litre) N.A. Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
grew impressively so far this
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Feb vs Jan 2013, percent 4.5 -7.1 -9.5 1.2 0.8 -2.8 0.0 -3.1
N.A. N.A. 17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment still growing t February Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.8%
173.4 176.1 176.1 156.8
192.6
183.3 160.6
133.7
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
his year, even with a dip in
Monthly Average 300.0
2013 250.0
2012 241.5 200.0
209.7
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ2.4%
YͲoͲY
9.5% 50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key private investment expend far this year Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 2 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
77.1
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
39.2
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
14.9
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
14.6
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
1.4
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ditures had impressive growth so
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Feb vs Jan 2013, percent
2.5
2.7
-6.6
0.4
-1.3
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Property picked up strongly in Jan but dropped significantly from De Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change Jan 2013 vs 2012, percent
289.4
Condo unit registered
Value of land transaction
Constr. Area in municipal
New housing unit
56.8
23.3
12.9
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
nuary compared to a year ago ecember 2012 Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Jan 2013 vs Dec 2012, percent
-35.8
-26.9
-15.5
-63.0
20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
21
Export decreased 0.1% in the first export” the main drag
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 2 months of 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export Metal Optical instru Automotive Chemicals Electronics Electrical PetroͲchemical Photo instru Furniture Other manufacturing Forestry Toiletries Apparels Machinery Agriculture Footware Agro products Petroleum Fishery Aircrafts Jewellery Mining Other export ReͲexports
-0.1 72 24.7 13.1 11.9 11.0 10.1 9.7 8.5 6.2 4.5 2.3 2.0 0.0 -1.2 -3.5 -4.9 -6.0 -14.1 -18.2 -20.1 -25.7 -27.2 -85.5 -99.9
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
t 2 months of 2013, with “Other Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions
.4
Contributions to total export growth Total export Metal Automotive Electronics PetroͲchemical Electrical Chemicals Optical instru Other manufacturing Photo instru Furniture Toiletries Forestry Apparels ReͲexports Footware Machinery Fishery Mining Agriculture Aircrafts Agro products Petroleum Jewellery Other export
-0.1 2.8 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -3.9
22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Decrease in export to Japan, Midd months of this year Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
7.1 (Trilli
100% =
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
Middle East
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
EU
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
11.3
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
11.7
11.1
11.3
12.7
12.2 18.4
18.1
17.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
dle East and ROW in the first 2
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 2 months of 2013 vs 2012
ion) 4.8%
EU
East Asia ex Japan
3.8%
NAFTA
2.5%
ASEAN
0.0%
Japan
-1.2%
Middle East
-2.8%
Rest of the world
-7.5%
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has contributed m 2013
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 2 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Total import
17.5
108.3
Others
Consumer goods
13.7
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
9.3
Capital goods
9.2
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
3.5
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ost to import growth so far in
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
17.5
Total import
11.1
Others
Capital goods
2.2
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
1.6
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
1.4
Consumer goods
1.2
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has gained more sh
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 6.0
Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Others
8.0
7.8
10.2
Capital goods
19.3
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
44.8
43.0
44.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
20.7
18.6
17.4
Consumer goods
7.1
8.3
7.5
08FY
09FY
10FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
hare this year
n
4
Y
Ѯ 7.0
Ѯ 7.7
12.4
10.9
21.3
24.6
Ѯ 1.3
(Trillion)
18.2
22.3
40.0
37.6
18.9
19.1
16.2
7.5
7.8
8.2
11FY
12FY
13/2MO
35.0
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDI went negative in January 201
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
9,460
9,112 8,547 7,778
4,853
06FY
07FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
3
Monthly cumulative FDI* 10,000 9,000
2012
8,000
8,617
12FY
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2013
-1,000
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 19% in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 10.8
11.7
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism
the first 2 months of 2013
Monthly cumulative 25.0
22.3 19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
20.0
2012
15.0
10.0
5.0
2013 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
China accounted for almost half o arrivals so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
of the total increase in tourist
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 2 months of 2013 vs 2012, Thousands
344.3
China 71.7
Russia Japan
% of total change
56.1
48% 10% 8%
Malaysia
48.1
7%
Korea
44.6
6%
Singapore
40.7
6%
India
26.0
4%
Hong Kong
23.9
3%
Taiwan
20.0
3%
Indonesia
18.5
3%
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
29
Policy rate remains at 2.75% whil moved in March Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% Apr-12
2.60% Mar-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Apr-12
0.00% Mar-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
e other interest rates rarely
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% Mar-13
Apr-12
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min
5.00% 2.50%
Apr-12
anches
0.00% Mar-13
30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
31
Businesses were more optimistic pessimistic in February Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
49.9
52.1
52.0
50.6
51.1
51.2
50
Worse
0 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
while Industries were more
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
94.1
93.0
95.2
98.8
97.3
95.5
Worse
0 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumers were optimistic on th pessimistic on job and over all in Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index 200
Better
100
On future incom
Worse
0 Mar-12
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 200 100 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior m Over 100 means consumer confidence is better than those of th Under 100 means consumer confidence is worse than those of t
Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC
e future income and less February
me
On job Overall
Sep-12
Oct-12
month he prior month the prior month
CC
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
34
Consensus growth for 2013 is bet
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
FPO 5.00
NESDB
BOT 4.50
The Economist poll
4.00
3.50
3.00 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
tween 4.4Ͳ5.0%
omist
Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
BOT The Economist poll
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
Forecast as of, month ending 35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are major economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Mar 30th 2013 China India
6.5
Indonesia
6.4 4.6
Malaysia
4.4
Thailand Brazil
3.5
Pakistan
3.4
Russia
3.3
Hong Kong
3.2
Taiwan
3.2
South Korea
2.8
Australia
2.8 2.3
Singapore
2.0
US Japan Euro Area -0.2
Source: The Economist
1.0
e relatively high compared to
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Mar 30th 2013 8.5
7.8 7.3 6.5 5.3 4.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.1 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.8 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
37
Unemployment rate increased to
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
0.83% in January
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
0.80
2013 2012
0.60
0.40
0.68
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Jan
0.8
Singapore Ͳ Q4
1.8
Malaysia Ͳ Jan
3.3
Hong Kong Ͳ Feb
3.4
South Korea Ͳ Feb
4.0
China Ͳ Q4
4.1
Japan Ͳ Jan
4.2
Taiwan Ͳ Feb
4.2
Brazil Ͳ Jan
5
Australia Ͳ Feb
5
Russia Ͳ Feb Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Feb India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Jan Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
5.4
5.4 5.8 6.0 6.1 7.7 9.9 11.9
39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
40
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
41
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
43
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
44
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, Atlas method (current US$) Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)
Source: The World Bank
60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130
76,380
Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)
18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th to 81st, with GNI per capita almos
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)
Source: The World Bank
64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370
hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rank improved slightly st the same as China
es
( ) = World rank 86,440
Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)
27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 48
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Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
49
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
50
Both Head line and Core inflation
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 4.00% 3.50%
Head line
3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50%
Core*
1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
n decreased in March
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product March 2013, percent 9.0
Veg & fruit 7.6
Tobacco & alcohol 6.6
Meat
6.2
Energy 3.1
Housing & furnishing Prepared food at home
2.0
Non alcoholic beverage
1.9
Eggs & milk
1.8 1.4
Transport & Commu Medical care
1.1
Food away from home
1.0
Recreation & Education
0.7
Rice
0.6
Apparel and footware
0.5
Seasoning
0.5
51 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from India and Pakistan an inflation in leading economies see Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Feb Pakistan Ͳ Feb Russia Ͳ Feb Brazil Ͳ Feb
5.3
Indonesia Ͳ Feb
4.9
Singapore Ͳ Feb
4.4
Hong Kong Ͳ Feb China Ͳ Feb
3.2
Taiwan Ͳ Feb
3.0 2.7
Thailand Ͳ Mar Australia Ͳ Q4
2.2
US Ͳ Feb
2.0
Euro Area Ͳ Feb
1.8
Malaysia Ͳ Feb
1.5
South Korea Ͳ Feb
1.4
Japan Ͳ Jan Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist
-0.3
d to certain extent Russia, ems to be manageable 2013* 10.9
8.8
7.4
7.7
7.3
6.3
6.3
6.1 5.5
3 3.8 4.3 4.3 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 0.1
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Deflation at Producer level, with
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5% Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
March PPI lower than a year ago
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product March 2013, percent Livestocks Fishing Food Metal Mechinery Leather & footware Wood Transport equip NonͲmetallic mineral Chemical Pulp & paper Electrical equip Forestry Forestry Crop Basic metals Other manu goods Petroluem products Rubber & plastic Energy
14.9 12.8 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -2.2 -2.6 -6.5 -9.7 -9.8
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 4.4Ͳ5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between r 2014
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
54
Bank’s loan continued to increase unchanged in January Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Ju
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95% 90%
89.6%
90.2%
92.8%
92.4%
9
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
J
91.7%
85% 80% Feb-12 Mar-12
Source: Bank of Thailand
e while liquidity in the system
MͲoͲM
0.5% YͲoͲY
13.6%
ul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
92.2%
93.1%
Jan-13
it* ratio
91.9%
Jul-12
90.8%
91.4%
Aug-12 Sep-12
91.1%
93.1%
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL decreased in both the loan in 2012
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht 592 477
05YE
06YE
445
458
07YE
08YE
401
09YE
380
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
10.73% 8.16%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
7.47%
07YE
7.31%
08YE
5.29%
4.85
09YE
10Y
amount and percentage of total
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
YE
317
11YE
269
12YE
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
3.60%
11YE
2.74%
12YE
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio dropped to 15
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
5.8% in January 2013
nks* Month End 16.5%
16.2%
14.8%
16.0%
2013
15.5%
2012
15.0%
14.5%
2011
anches
2012
14.0%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the many coun rates Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Mar 30th 2013
൞
3M riskͲfree interest rates
9.5
Pakistan 8.1
India
7.4
Russia
7.1
Brazil 4.9
Indonesia 3.9
China Malaysia
3.2
Australia
3.2 2.8
South Korea
2.5
Thailand Taiwan Hong Kong
0.9 0.5
US
0.3
Singapore
0.3
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
tries with negative real interest
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
7.7
1.8 8.8
-0.7
6.3
1.1
6.1
1.0
5.5
-0.6
4.3
-0.4
2.2
1.0
2.6
0.6
2.3
0.5
3.1
-0.6
1.5
-0.6 4.3
-3.8
1.8
-1.5 3.8
1.9 0.1
-3.5 -1.7 0.1
58
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
SET increased slightly in March w flow Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end
5.1% 0.0%
1.9%
Oct-12
Nov-12
5.9% 4.6% 1.3%
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 20.0 15.0
E
10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0
J-13
F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13
J-13
A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
with the return of foreign fund Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of Mar 26th 2013 20.0%
Japan (Nikkei 225) 12.2%
Indonesia (JSX) US (DJIA)
11.1%
Thailand (SET)
10.9%
US (S&P 500)
9.6%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
9.3% 8.5%
UK (FTSE 100)
7.7%
US (NAScomp)
6.4%
Australia (All Ord.)
5.7%
Pakistan (KSE) Singapore (STI)
3.8%
Germany (DAX)
3.5%
France (CAC 40)
3.0%
Taiwan (TWI)
2.0%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
1.9% 1.2%
China (SSEA) S Korea (KOSPI)
-0.7%
HK (Hang Seng)
-1.5%
Malaysia (KLSE)
-2.1%
India (BSE) -3.7%
59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
60
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1% -0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
7% -2.6% -3.6% -3.9%
-4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY 61
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Budget deficit for the first 2 mont significantly compared to same p Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1
Revenue 1,013
1,109
16
0
Budget balance -996
-1,109
1,241
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1,484
110 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ths of 2013 improved eriod last year
Monthly cumulative Budget balance 0.0 ,751
1,902
2,078 -50.0
2013
-100.0 -150.0
-75
-28 -411
-200.0
2012
-250.0 -300.0
1,825
-1,930
-350.0 -2,489
-400.0 -450.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from 2010 and 2011, there between budget and cash balance Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
110 16 24
0
88
8 -36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
were not much differences e
plus)
-28
-75
00 -96
-53 -52 -137
-264
-364 -401
-411 -446
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/2mo
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is GDP
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia Indonesia Taiwan Brazil China Euro Area Thailand Malaysia India
-5.
US -6.4
Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-9.0
expected to be around 2.9% of
ercentage of GDP 2.6 2.3 0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0 -2.8 -2.9 -4.1 -5.0 4
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt in
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010
2011
8%
8%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2012
Jan-13
7%
7%
Ext as
January 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
Jan-13
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 69 Thailand 74 Denmark 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 44 45 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
66
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A slow down in Manufacturing and • Private consumption and investme • Export has been decreasing, while • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • The Economist poll revised down th 5.0% for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ4.8% for 201
• Unemployment rate increased sligh other countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.7% low level by historical and internati • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased in amount • Budget deficit for the first 2 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in February nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in February Import growing. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic heirs for 2013 ; consensus projection is now between 4.4Ͳ 14
htly to 0.83% in January, still a very low level compared to
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in March, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather ional standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.8% in January. Total t and as percent to total loan in 2012. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in March.
67
Positive Balance of Payments in t largely to net service income
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
1.2 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5.3 12FY
2.7 13/2mo
he first 2 months of 2013 due Trade Balance (F.O.B)
on
32.6
29.8
17.3
17.0
8.3 -2.2
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/2mo
Net service income & transfer 1.6
+
-15.2
-10.7
08FY
09FY
-19.7
10FY
-11.1
-5.6
11FY
12FY
13/2mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.2
2.5
3.3
12FY
13/2mo
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q4
10.
Taiwan Ͳ Q4 6.6%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q4
6.2%
Malaysia Ͳ Q4
4.4%
South Korea Ͳ Jan Russia Ͳ Q4
1.9%
China Ͳ Q4
1.8%
Thailand Ͳ Q4
1.6%
Euro Area Ͳ Jan
1.2%
Japan Ͳ Jan
0.9%
Pakistan Ͳ Q4
-1.5%
US Ͳ Q4
-2.6%
Indonesia Ͳ Q4
-2.9%
Brazil Ͳ Feb
-3.4%
Australia Ͳ Q4
-3.8%
India Ͳ Q3
-4.1%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 51.4
19.5%
49.6
.2%
Thailand and NESDB
2.9 19.5 46.4 81.2 213.8 2.7 153.2 60.8 -2.0 -475.0 -24.2 -63.5 -56.5 -80.6
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Negative trade balance so far in 2 export Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
593
257
-111 -229
-275
-647 8FY
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/2MO
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of p (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of p
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2013 as import grew faster than
Export**
5,851
6,113
6,708
7,091
5,195
1,084 8FY
Ͳ
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/2MO
Import***
6,983 5,962
7,739
5,857 4,602 1,313
8FY
9FY
w adjustments ayment and exchange rate conversion payment and exchange rate conversion
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/2MO
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in b terms Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0 03YE
04YE
05YE
06YE
07Y
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.3%
40.9%
03YE
04YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
35.4%
07YE
both absolute and relative to GDP
YE
%
E
08YE
09YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
12/4Q
38.9%
12/4Q
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
More public debt and more longͲ composition in 2012 Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
4%
96%
08YE
8%
92%
09YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
13%
15%
20%
87%
85%
80%
10YE
11YE
12/4Q
term debt in external debt
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
44%
56%
56%
08YE
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
46%
45%
54%
55%
11YE
12/4Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt 418% 372% 340%
330%
299% 257%
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12/4Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
10.3%
7.7%
07FY
08FY
7.3%
09FY
3.7%
3.8%
4.0%
10FY
11FY
12/4Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly in February but still
191.7
206.4
205.8
202.4
2011
2012
Feb-13
10.0
9.5
2012
Feb-13
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated another 2% in M
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
112.0
Baht appreciates
110.0
108.0
106.0
MͲoͲM
2.0%
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
7.4%
Baht depreciates Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
98.0 96.0 Mar-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
March
e
0
0
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of March 29th 2013 0.0
PHP Ͳ 0.7301 -1.5
MXN Ͳ 2.3833
-2.9
KRW Ͳ 0.0264 CNY Ͳ 4.7947
-3.7
SGD Ͳ 23.8598
-3.7
AUD Ͳ 30.7933
-4.9
0
USD Ͳ 29.4476
-5.0
0
MYR Ͳ 9.6376
-5.7
TWD Ͳ 0.9858
-5.9 -6.7
VND Ͳ 0.0014 EUR Ͳ 37.8586 GBP Ͳ 44.8895 INR Ͳ 0.5799 IDR Ͳ 3.2113
-8.7 -9.6 -10.0 -10.3
JPY Ͳ 31.4463 -17.1 Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 75
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