130331 Thai emag

Charting Thailand’s Economy®

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน • • • • • •

เงินบาทเข็งตอเนื่อง สงออกทรุด ภาคอุตสาหกรรมชะลอตัว ความเชื่อมั่นภาคธุรกิจที่ดขี ึ้น งบประมาณขาดดุลนอยลง และมุมมองดานอื่นๆอยางรอบดาน

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 14th issue: เมษายน 2556

ภาษาไทย

วิกฤต กับ โอกาส

ตรวจสุขภาพ ธุรกิจประกันภัย 1 ปี หลังจากวิกฤตอุทกภัย ISSN: 2286‐6132

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Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

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Charting Thailand’s Economy чѼѥѯьѧьдѥіѱчѕэіѧќѤънѥіҙшѯєзѯдѠіҙлѼѥдѤч

лчъѣѯэѨѕьѯјеъѨѷ 0135555002491 ъѨѠ ѷ ѕѬ:ҕ 19 ўєѬҕ 11, щььјѼѥјѬддѥ шѼѥэјјѼѥјѬддѥ ѠѼѥѯѓѠјѼѥјѬддѥ юъѫєыѥьѨ 12150 Ѥ ъҙ: +662 987 0919, ѱъіѝѥі: +662 987 0917, ѱъіћё Email: admin@chartingthailandeconomy.com

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ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь, ѲьњѧдїшѕҕѠєёэѱѠдѥѝ зѼѥдјҕѥњьѨѲѸ ьіѣѕѣўјѤкєѤдлѣєѨзьѕдєѥёѬчэҕѠѕѵ Ѩ льўєчзњѥєејѤкѳюёѠѝєзњі Cover story еѠкѯіѥѲьѯјҕєьѨе ѯѝѕ Ѹ ѠѯѝьѠ ѯіѪѠ ѷ кіѥњѲьыѫідѧлюіѣдѤьњѧьѥћѓѤѕъѨѳѷ ч ҖіѤэяјдіѣъэлѥдњѧдїшѠѫъдѓѤѕѯєѪѠ ѷ Ѫѷ нє юјѥѕюѨ 2554 ѰшҕѯёѨѕкѰзҕюѨѯчѨѕњдѶѝѥєѥіщдјѤэєѥєѨдѼѥѳіѳч ҖѠѕҕѥкьҕѥнь ҕ ьѨѰ ѰјѣъѨѝ ѷ ѼѥзѤрѕѠчдѥіъѼѥюіѣдѤьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкѝѬкєѥд ѯнь Ѹ ј ҖњлѣѳєҕѲў Җѯіѥ Җ ҕ ѳізіѤэ ѲнюіѣѱѕзъѨ њѷ ѥҕ ѲьњѧдїшѕҕѠєёэѱѠдѥѝѳч Җѯнь Ѥ Ѹ ѵѝѼѥўіѤэѯчѪѠььѨз ѝѼѥўіѤэч ҖѥьшѤњѯјеѯћіќудѧл щ Җѥлѣѝіѫюѝь Ѹ кш ҖѠкэѠдњҕѥ ѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶк ѝкҕ ѠѠдўчшѤњ дѥіяјѧшјчјк ѰјѣѰьҕьѠьњҕѥьѨѯѷ юѶ ьюѤ рўѥѲўрҕ Ѩѷ кѰьҕьѠь Ѱшҕ ъѨіѷ Ѥуэѥјш ҖѠкѰд Җ ѯкѧьэѥъъѨѰ ѷ еѶкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кьѤь Ѹ ѯюѶ ьзњѥєѯѝѕ лѣѰд Җч ҖњѕњѧыѲѨ чьѤь Ѹ ѯюѶ ьѝкѧѷ ъѨш ѷ ҖѠкшѧчшѥєчѬзіѤэ ѱчѕѯмёѥѣѯіѪѠ ѷ къѨњѷ ѥҕ зцѣдіієдѥіьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧь (ъѨѯѷ юѶ ьѠѧѝіѣлѥдіѤуэѥј) лѣјчѠѤшіѥ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕўіѪѠѳєҕѲьдѥіюіѣнѫєѯчѪѠьѯєќѥѕььѨѸ яєўњѤкњҕѥњѧыд Ѩ ѥіеѠкѯіѥлѣнњҕ ѕѲў ҖъҕѥьюіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѧчшѥє ѯћіќудѧлѳч ҖѳєҕєѥддѶь ҖѠѕ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьѯчѪѠьўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

2

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µ ° ¨µ ¦³ ´ ª· µ«£´¥°¥¼n ¸ É ¦³¤ à ¥ ¦³ ´ ¦£¥ r¤¸­ ´ ­nª ­¼ ¹ Á º° 3 NONͲLIFE INSURANCE MARKET SIZE 2012, Million Baht

47,657 13,918

179,459 131,802

Direct Premiums

Net Premiums to Reinsuarance*

Net Written Premiums

Change in Unearned Premiums Reserve

Note: (*) Equal Premiums from Reinsurance Assumed Ͳ Premiums from Rein

Source: OIC; Charting Thailand’s analysis

¤µ 118 ¡´ ¨oµ µ Á¤º°É ª´ à ¥¦µ¥Å o Ä 4 ­nª

n d s

Marine & Transportation Industrial 3% 2% Health Fire 4% 4%

All Others 3%

P.A. 10% 74%

Automobile

117,884

Net Earned Premiums

nsurance Ceded Ͳ Retrocession Premiums

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¨µ ¦³ ´ ª· µ«£´¥Á · à Šo­¼ ªnµÁ«¦nµ ¤µÁ¤º°É ª´ µ Á ¸Ê ¥ ¦³ ´ £´¥...

NONͲLIFE INSURANCE MARKET GROWTH Index 2008 = 100

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2008

2009

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

Source: OIC, NESDB; Charting Thailand’s analysis

2010

¬ · à ¥¦ª¤ ªnµÁ nµ ´ªÄ ¦³¥³ 5 ¸ ¸É

CAGR* 2008Ͳ2012

2011

2012

Direct Premium

14.0%

Earned Premium

10.3%

Nominal GDP

5.7%

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...¦ª¤ ¹ ´ ¸°ºÉ ÇÁ n Î µ ª ¦¤ ¦¦¤r  NO. OF POLICY

SUM INSURE

Million Units

Trillion Baht

60

120

50

100

40

80

CAGR* = 10.2% 30

60

CAGR 20

40

10

20

0

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

Source: OIC, NESDB; Charting Thailand’s analysis

2008 2009 20

¨³ Î µ ª Á · Á°µ ¦³ ´ £´¥

ED

R* = 16.8%

010 2011 2012

PREMIUMS Billion Baht 200 180 160

Direct Premiums CAGR* = 14.0%

140 120 100 80 60

Earned Premiums CAGR* = 10.3%

40 20 0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

´¥Â ¶ Ä ¥´¤ ¥²Â¢

Á¤º°É ª´ µ¦Á · à ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¦³ ´ £´¥¦´ ¦ °» ´ ·Á® »­nª » ¨ ¨³­» £µ¡ ¤¸ µ¦Á · DIRECT PREMIUM BY SEGMENT Billion Baht

13 4 3 8 9 6

12 4 4 8 10 7

64

65

2008

2009

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

Source: OIC; Charting Thailand’s analysis

11 4 4 8 13 10

75

2010

³Á®È Å o ´ ªnµ ªµ¤Á­¸¥É £´¥ ¦´¡¥r­· à ¸­É ¼ ¤µ

Total

11 4 5 8

CAGR* 2008Ͳ2012 14.0% 0%

13 5 6 10

All Others

21

P.A.

24.5%

21

Industrial

38.3%

Automobile

12.8%

Marine & Transport 5.5% Health 19.1% Fire 6.8%

16 12

104 83

2011

2012

Ï´Æ¥ ´ ´¥ ¥² ³ ¢³¤

°» ­µ® ¦¦¤ ¦³ ´ ª· µ«£´¥ ¨´ ¤µ¤¸ µÎ Å UNDER WRITING PROFIT Percent of Earned Premium

5%

3%

2%

4%

-118%

2008

2009

2010

Source: OIC; Charting Thailand’s analysis

2011

2012

¦ µ µ¦¦´ ¦³ ´ £´¥°¸ ¦´Ê Ä ¸ 2012 Losses (% of earned premium) 180%

53%

54%

56%

2008

2009

2010

55% 2011

2012

Commission, Brokerage, UW (% of earned premium)

=1-

21% 18%

19%

2008

2009

20%

2010

19% 2011

2012

Operating expenses (% of earned premium)

23%

24%

23%

2008

2009

2010

20%

20%

2011

2012

§ ¥² ´ ©¶ ¦ ¯º ¢³¤

¨ ¦³ µ ª· § °» £´¥Á · ŤnÁ nµ ´ Ä ¦´¡¥r­· ¼ ¦³ ¤µ ¸É­» ¨³­n ¨ ¹ UNDER WRITING PROFIT BY SEGMENT Percent of Earned Premium, 2011

16%

7%

6% -91%

-97%

-118%

-5093%

P.A.

Auto

Health

Fire

Marine

Source: OIC; Charting Thailand’s analysis

Overall

Industrial

Ä Â n¨³ ¦³Á£ à ¥ ¦³ ´ ªµ¤Á­¸¥É εŦ¦ª¤ ° ´Ê °» ­µ® ¦¦¤Å oª¥ Losses (% of earned premium)

5143% 44%

57%

57%

P.A.

Auto

Health

142% 169% 180% Fire

Marine

Overall

Industrial

Commission, Brokerage, UW (% of earned premium)

=115% P.A.

20%

21%

26% 19% 7%

Auto

Health

Fire

Marine

5% Overall Industrial

Operating expenses (% of earned premium) 45% 25%

P.A.

17%

15%

Auto

Health

23%

21%

Fire

Marine

20% Overall Industrial

©´£Â¬·Ê¤ ¢³¤ ¥³ ¤q¬¶

µ¦ ¦³ ´ ªµ¤Á­¸¥É £´¥ ¦´¡¥r­· Á · à ­ NO. OF POLICY

SUM INSURED

Million Units

Trillion Baht

0.6

18 16

0.5

CAGR*

14 0.4

12 10

0.3 8 0.2

6 4

0.1 2 0.0

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

Source: OIC, NESDB; Charting Thailand’s analysis

2008 2009 201

­¼ ¤µ à ¥Á ¡µ³®¨´ Á · ª· § °» £´¥ PREMIUMS Billion Baht 25

= 18.8%

10 2011 2012

20

Direct Premium CAGR* = 38.3%

15

10

5

Earned Premium CAGR* = 21.9%

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

©´£Â¬·Ê¤ ¢³¤ ¥³ ¤q¬¶

¦³ ´ ªµ¤Á­¸¥É £´¥ ¦´¡¥r­· ¨´ ¤µ¤¸ µÎ UNDER WRITING PROFIT Percent of Earned Premium

115%

7% -7%

-29%

-5093%

2008

2009

2010

Source: OIC; Charting Thailand’s analysis

2011

2012

µÅ¦ µ µ¦ ¦³ ´ £´¥Ä ¸ 2012 Losses (% of earned premium) 5143% 48%

50%

84% -59%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Commission, Brokerage, UW (% of earned premium) 5%

=1-4%

-1%

-2%

-7%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Operating expenses (% of earned premium)

51%

2008

61%

2009

47%

45%

45%

2010

2011

2012

¬¥º »n ¥¶­´¥ ´¥Â ¶ Ä лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥд ѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕєѨ яјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥі яјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ьеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќшіѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲь ѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙѲьѯчѪѠьє.з. ѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨлѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѰшҕўчшѤњѠѕҕѥкєѥдлѥдѯчѪѠьы.з. 2012 чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэѲьнњҕ к 2 ѷ ѝѬк ч ҖѥььѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѕѤкзкѯёѧє чѨѱчѕнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідѯшѧэѱшѝѬкщѩк 19% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь ҖѥъѤкѸ ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧь ѰјѣьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьѝщѥьѣъѨѷ ѝкҕ ѯѝіѧєдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѱчѕѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 2.75% окѩѷ єѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў Җѝь еѠкыьѥзѥіёѥцѧнѕҙеѕѥѕшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ к Ѳьч ҖѥььѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкєѨдѥіѯэѧдлҕѥѕ Ѩ ўѥѕлѥдѠѫъдѓѤѕѰјѣјкъѫь ъѼѥ іѥѕлҕѥѕёѧѯћќеѠкіѤуэѥјѯёѪѠ ѷ нчѯнѕзњѥєѯѝѕ Ѳў ҖіѥѕлҕѥѕеѠкіѤуэѥјеѕѥѕшѤњєѥѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. 2013 Ѹ ѲьецѣъѨѓ ѷ ѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієдјѤэєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕ ѓѥзыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчѯѨ ёѧє ѷ еѩь і Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕь ҖѠѕјк ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫччѧ Ѡѧѱзѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙѳч ҖюіѤэјчдѥізѥчдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 јҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

´¥ n´ ´ ç² ´¥ ¥² ´¤¥´¤Æ n ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з. ѯюѶ ь 0.83% ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэ ѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 83 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч ҖєѥддњҕѥзьѠѧьѯчѨѕ ѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲь Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ Җь дъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥ юјѠчўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

¬ ·¤¥¢´ ´ ª¥« ¶ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. ѲьецѣъѨѯѷ кѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјк ѯюѶ ь 1.2% окѩѷ щѪѠњҕѥзҕѠье ҖѥкшѼѥѷ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэюіѣѯъћѠѪь ѷ ѵ ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ ч Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥі ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъікшѤњѱчѕѝч Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲь јчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ юѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥд Ѳьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэєѥшіуѥь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲь ѯчѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕщѠ Ѫ њҕѥѝѬкьѤдѯєѪѠ ьѥьѥнѥшѧ ѱчѕѯл ҖѥўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѝњҕ ьѲўрҕѠѕѬѲҕ ьюіѣѯъћ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨеь ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨш Ѹ юъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫјѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

11

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

13

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

46

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

53

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

59

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

63

18 24 30 38 40 43

49

69 76

12

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´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

7.1%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3%

5.3%

6.3% 4.6%

2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

È Â¦ à ¥Á · à ­¼ ¹ 6.4% Ä ¸ 2012

18.9%

7.8% 6.4% 4.4% 3.0%

5%

0.1%

0.4%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12

13

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µ¦¢ºÊ ´ª ° £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ¸­É ¼ Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸É 4 ° ¸ 2012

´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 4Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ GDP

18.9

Manufacture

37

Hotel&Res

25.4

Other social

15.3

Construction

14.1

Utilities

13.2

Transport

12.8

Mining

11.9

Financial

9.9

Education

8.7

RealEstate

8.0

Trading

7.6

PublicAdmin

4.6

Health&Social

4.6

Agriculture

2.2

Private HH

1.6

Fishing

-5.8

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

´ ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oªÁ È Á® » ¨®¨´ ° µ¦Á · Ã

2

7.4

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 4Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ GDP

18.9

Manufacture

12.8

Transport

1.3

Hotel&Res

1.1

Trading

1.1

Utilities

0.5

Financial

0.5

Other social

0.3

RealEstate

0.3

Construction

0.3

Mining

0.3

Education

0.2

Agriculture

0.2

PublicAdmin

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

-0.1

14

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¢ºÊ ´ª ° £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤ È¥ ´ Á È ´ª

´¥q 1.07a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2012 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ GDP

6.4

Hotel&Res

11.5

Utilities

9.6

Transport

8.0

Construction

7.8

Mining

7.4

Manufacture

7.0

Financial

6.6

Trading

5.2

Education

5.0

Health&Social

4.6

Agriculture

4.4

Other social

4.1

RealEstate

3.9

PublicAdmin

3.6

Private HH Fishing -3.0

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

2.3

ª nª¥®¨´ Ä µ¦Á · à ° ´Ê ¸ 2012

2

´¥q 1.07b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2012 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ GDP

6.4

Manufacture

2.7

Transport

0.8

Trading

0.7

Hotel&Res

0.5

Utilities

0.3

Agriculture

0.3

Financial

0.3

Construction

0.2

Mining

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

Education

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Other social

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

0.0

15

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥®¨´ ¸É ¦³ » o µ¦Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 4Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

18.9

I

28

X

19.0

ͲM

14.7

C

12.2

G

12.1

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ¸¤É µ µ µ¦­n °°

8.2

´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 4Q12 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

18.9

X

13.6

C

6.7

I

6.2

G

1.2

Discrpncy

ͲM

0.1

-8.9

16

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¸ ¸¡Â¸ Ťn¤¸ µ¦Á · à Á º°É µ ¦µ¥ n µ¥ ¹É Ťn ´ ¦ª¤Ä ¸ ¸¡¸ ´¥q 1.09a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 2012 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

6.4

I

17.0

G

7.4

C

6.6

ͲM

X

6.2

2.9

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

¥ ¸ÁÉ ¡·¤É ¹Ê Á º° ´Ê ®¤ ¤µ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ ´¥q 1.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2012 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

6.4

I

3.7

C

3.4

X

2.2

G

0.7

Discrpncy

ͲM

0.0

-3.7

17

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

18

¨ ¨· £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤ Ȩ ¨ Á n ´ Ä

´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

4.1% 190.1 172.4 159.5

179.1 166.3

149.9 137.6 123.9

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Á º° .¡.

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

172.9

177.2

200.0

2012

2013 150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ3.5% YͲoͲY Ͳ1.2%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

19

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°» ­µ® ¦¦¤­nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ¨· ¨ ¨ Ä Á ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, д.ё. 2013 Vehicles

39.1

Tobacco

9.9

Machineries

9.5

Textiles

3.2

Furniture

2.1

Leather

1.9

Electrical

1.1

Mineral

-0.6

Rubber&Plastic

-1.4

Electronic

-4.9

Basic Mat

-5.4

Chemical

-6.9

Food & Bev

-7.4

Metal products

-9.4

Office automate

-9.6

Paper

-10.9

Wood products

-12.0

Petroleum

-13.4

Precision instru

-17.5

Apparel

-18.1

Transport Equip

-18.2

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

º° .¡. ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.ё. 2013 -4.8 7.8 -1.8 -3.0 4.3 -7.4 -13.7 -0.4 -1.2 -3.7 2.2 -12.0 -11.1 3.7 3.5 -9.3 -10.8 -4.7 -14.5 -1.1 -5.8

20

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¨ ¨ Á È 62.9 ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч

68.4

69.0

67.0 63.5

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

62.9

Jan-13

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Feb-13

9% Ä Á º° .¡. ´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, д.ё. 2013 Vehicles Precision instru Chemical Machineries Mineral Petroleum Electrical Rubber&Plastic Transport Equip Paper Office automate Metal products Basic Mat Food & Bev Electronic Tobacco Textiles Apparel Furniture Leather Wood products

103.4 101.5 79.6 75.7 72.1 70.6 68.2 66.7 63.6 63.3 62.6 57.8 52.4 52.3 49.2 47.9 39.6 36.6 32.9 30.1 18.5

21

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Á È ® ¹ É Ä ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ µ¦® ´ª ° ¨nµ­» ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Indonesia Ͳ Jan China Ͳ Feb South Korea Ͳ Jan Brazil Ͳ Jan Australia Ͳ Q4 Malaysia Ͳ Jan US Ͳ Feb India Ͳ Jan Hong Kong Ͳ Q4 Pakistan Ͳ Dec Thailand Ͳ Feb Euro Area Ͳ Jan Russia Ͳ Feb Japan Ͳ Jan

-5.8

Taiwan Ͳ Feb Singapore Ͳ Feb Source: The Economist

-11.4 -16.5

¨ ¨· °» ­µ® ¦¦¤Ä nª 12 Á º°

11.5 9.9 7.3 5.6 4.8 4.5 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.8 -1.2 -1.3 -2.3

22

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º°

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´  « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

3.4%

106.1

113.3 112.3 109.3 110.9

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

.¡.

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ0.2%

129.4

122.8

200.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ9.5% 150.0

100.0

2013

2012

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

23

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

24

´ ¸ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á° ¥´ Á · à µ ¸

´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

3.2%

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.3

130.7

134.3 127.3

111.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

n° ¤oªnµÄ Á º° .¡. ³¤¸ µ¦® ´ª

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 160.0

147.1

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

2013 150.0

2012 145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.5%

135.0

YͲoͲY

3.3% 130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

25

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á · à °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Ä nª 2 Á º° ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 Passenger Car (Unit)

102.5

Commercial Car (Unit)

26.1

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

17.1

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

11.3

Motocycle (Unit)

10.1

Diesel (litre)

5.3

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

3.8

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

3.1

NGV (kg.) N.A. LPG (litre) N.A.

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

° ¦ ° ¸ ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.ё. 2013

4.5 -7.1 -9.5 1.2 0.8 -2.8 0.0 -3.1

N.A. N.A. 26

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ ¸ µ¦¨ » Á° È¥ ´ Á · à µ ¸

´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

6.8%

173.4 176.1 176.1 156.8

192.6

183.3 160.6

133.7

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

n° ¤oªnµÄ Á º° .¡. ³¤¸ µ¦® ´ª

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 300.0

2013 250.0

2012 241.5 200.0

209.7

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ2.4%

YͲoͲY

9.5% 50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

27

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥ µ¦¨ » Á° Ä nª 2 Á º° ¦ ³Á¦·¤É ³¨° ´ª¨ oµ Ä Á º° .¡. ´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

77.1

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

39.2

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

14.9

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

14.6

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

1.4

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¦ ° ¸ Á · à °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ ¤o µ ¦µ¥ n µ¥

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.ё. 2013

2.5

2.7

-6.6

0.4

-1.3

28

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°­´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥rÁ · à Šo ¸ µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ . . 2012 ´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ­´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, є.з. 2013

Condo unit registered

289.4

Value of land transaction

Constr. Area in municipal

New housing unit

56.8

23.3

12.9

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

° ¸ n°  n® ´ª°¥nµ ¤µ µ Á º°

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ­´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, є.з. 2013

-35.8

-26.9

-15.5

-63.0

29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

30

µ¦­n °° ° Å ¥¨ ¨ Ä nª 2 Á º°  ­n °° °ºÉ Ç ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 Total export Metal Optical instru Automotive Chemicals Electronics Electrical PetroͲchemical Photo instru Furniture Other manufacturing Forestry Toiletries Apparels Machinery Agriculture Footware Agro products Petroleum Fishery Aircrafts Jewellery Mining Other export ReͲexports

-0.1 72 24.7 13.1 11.9 11.0 10.1 9.7 8.5 6.2 4.5 2.3 2.0 0.0 -1.2 -3.5 -4.9 -6.0 -14.1 -18.2 -20.1 -25.7 -27.2 -85.5 -99.9

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê à ¥¤¸ ª´ nª ®¨´ º° µ¦

.4

´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Metal Automotive Electronics PetroͲchemical Electrical Chemicals Optical instru Other manufacturing Photo instru Furniture Toiletries Forestry Apparels ReͲexports Footware Machinery Fishery Mining Agriculture Aircrafts Agro products Petroleum Jewellery Other export

-0.1 2.8 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -3.9

31

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä nª 2 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ ¨µ ­n °° ¸ÁÉ

´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

100% =

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

Middle East

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

EU

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

10.5

10.7

10.2

11.3

10.3

11.7

11.1

11.3

12.7

12.2

17.4

18.1

18.4

18.1

21.0

21.0

Japan NAFTA Rest of the world

16.6

East Asia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

· à ¸¤¸Á¡¸¥ °¸¥¼ Á°Á ¸¥ .°. ¨³ µ¢ oµ

´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2013 ѯъѨѕэдѤэ 2012

ion)

EU

4.8%

East Asia ex Japan

3.8%

NAFTA

2.5%

ASEAN

0.0%

Japan

-1.2%

Middle East

-2.8%

Rest of the world

-7.5%

32

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ εÁ oµÃ ­¼ ¹ 17.5% ¨³ µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ­nª Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ ¸­É » ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

Total import

17.5

Others

Consumer goods

108.3

13.7

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

9.3

Capital goods

9.2

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

3.5

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤µ µ » ¨»n¤­· oµ à ¥ ¨»n¤°ºÉ Ǥµ

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

Total import

17.5

Others

Capital goods

11.1

2.2

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

1.6

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

1.4

Consumer goods

1.2

33

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ εÁ oµ°ºÉ Ǥ¸­ ´ ­nª ­¼ ¤µ ¹Ê Ä nª ´¥q 5.08 – ¬³ ¬m© ´¥ Ï´Â n´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч Ѯ 6.0

Ѯ 4.6

Ѯ 5.9

Others

8.0

7.8

10.2

Capital goods

19.3

22.3

20.9

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

44.8

43.0

44.0

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

20.7

18.6

17.4

Consumer goods

7.1

8.3

7.5

08FY

09FY

10FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê

4

Y

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 7.7

12.4

10.9

21.3

24.6

Ѯ 1.3

(Trillion)

18.2

22.3

40.0

37.6

35.0

18.9

19.1

16.2

7.5

7.8

8.2

11FY

12FY

13/2MO 34

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . · ¨ Ä Á º°

´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547 7,778

4,853

06FY

Source: BOT

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

¦ ° ¸ 2013

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 10,000 9,000

2012

8,000

8,617

12FY

7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

2013 -1,000

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 19% Ä 2 Á µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¦³¥³¥µª ªnµ 2 Á nµ

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 11.7 10.8

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism

º° ¦ ° ¸ 2013 ¹É º°ªnµ­¼ ªnµ°´ ¦µ

³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 25.0

22.3 20.0

19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

2012 15.0

10.0

5.0

2013 0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

36

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª ¸ · Á È Á º° ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª ´Ê ®¤ Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.19a

Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© à m ´£¬³ ´ ¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

° ¦¹ É ® ¹ É ° µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ´¥q 5.19b

10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â ª ·Ê£ · Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ ·Ê¬º £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·Êçn© нњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013, ёѤьзіѤкѸ China

344.3

Russia Japan

% ¯ ´¥Â ¶Ê£ ³Ë ­£

71.7 56.1

48%

10%

8%

Malaysia

48.1

7%

Korea

44.6

6%

Singapore

40.7

6%

India

26.0

4%

Hong Kong

23.9

3%

Taiwan

20.0

3%

Indonesia

18.5

3%

37

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

38

°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ´ª ¸É 2.75% ­nª

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë Ĥ ´¤ .

3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% Mar-13

Apr-12

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max 2.50% Min Apr-12 Note: (*) Bangkok Inter Bank Offer Rate

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.00% Mar-13

°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥°ºÉ Ç ŤnÁ ¨¸¥É

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ BIBOR* 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% Apr-12

2.60% Mar-13

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Apr-12

0.00% Mar-13

39

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

40

£µ »¦ · ¤° è Ä Â n ¸Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ³ ¸£É ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better

49.9

52.1

52.0

50.6

51.1

51.2

50

Worse

0 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

£µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¤° Ä Â n¦µo ¥¤µ ¹Ê ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£** 200

Better

100

94.1

93.0

95.2

98.8

97.3

95.5

Worse

0 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° è Ä Â n¦µo ¥ o°¥¨

´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ 200

· ¸Ë ч Җѥьіѥѕѳч ҖѲьѠьѥзш 100

äm§

0 Mar-12

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

(*) єѨзѥҕ ѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 0-200 щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѝ ҕ кѬ дњҕѥ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣчѨе щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵѳєҕѯ щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 100 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣ

Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTCC

ч Җѥьдѥіўѥкѥь ѱчѕіњє

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

еѩь Ѹ ўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэчѨ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ўіѪѠъікшѤњѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэюѥьдјѥк ѣѰѕҕјкўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэѳєҕч Ѩ

Feb-13

42

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

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¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

43

µ¦ µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · à ­Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2013 ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2012, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00

5.50

FPO 5.00

NESDB

BOT 4.50

The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

¨nµ­» °¥¼n ¸É 4.4-5.0%

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00

5.50

5.00

BOT The Economist poll

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

Forecast as of, month ending 44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2013 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ Á¡¸¥ ¸ °· Á ¸¥ °· à ¸Á ¸¥ ¨³¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 30/3/2013 China India

6.5

Indonesia

6.4

Malaysia

4.6

Thailand

4.4

Brazil

3.5

Pakistan

3.4

Russia

3.3

Hong Kong

3.2

Taiwan

3.2

South Korea

2.8

Australia

2.8

Singapore

2.3

US Japan Euro Area -0.2

Source: The Economist

2.0 1.0

¦ rªnµ ³Á · à ­¼ ¹ 4.4% ¹É Á È ¦° ¥Á nµ ´Ê ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 30/3/2013 8.5

7.8 7.3 6.5 5.3 4.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.1 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.8 45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

46

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º° ¤ ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч

2.16 2.07 1.83

1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

¤. .

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1.20

1.00

0.80

2013 2012

0.60

0.40

0.68

0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ 뵃 ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Jan

0.8

Singapore Ͳ Q4

1.8

Malaysia Ͳ Jan

3.3

Hong Kong Ͳ Feb

3.4

South Korea Ͳ Feb

4.0

China Ͳ Q4

4.1

Japan Ͳ Jan

4.2

Taiwan Ͳ Feb

4.2

Brazil Ͳ Jan

5

Australia Ͳ Feb

5

Russia Ͳ Feb Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Feb India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Jan Source: The Economist

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

5.4

5.4 5.8 6.0 6.1 7.7 9.9 11.9

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

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• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

49

 ªÃ o¤ µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oà ¥¦ª¤ ¸

´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê* 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

¹Ê  nÄ ¤. ¨´ Â¥n¨

North East North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© à m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê  n ÈŤn¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 51

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « ε¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â­§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nŠħ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥  ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

2 26.

25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨Îʵ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, d 2011 ­¥¹¯§m´¬º

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

52

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• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

53

Î µ ª ¨³­´ ­nª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ´¥q 2.04a

´¥q 2.04b

¬n ©´£¤´

Ï´ © »n¤´

эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь

ј Җѥьзь

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legend color:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB

¨ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ Ä ¤. ´¥q 2.04c

¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

North East

South

'03

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

54

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Šħ

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India Lao PDR

6

Pakistan

60.2

Nepal

57.3

Cambodia

53.3

Indonesia

46.1

Vietnam

43.4

Philippines

41.5

South Africa

31.3

China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

¤¸­ ´ ­nª ¥µ ­¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

Egypt, Arab Rep.

15.4

Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7

Brazil

10.8

Iran, Islamic Rep.

8.0

Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

55

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ ¤µ ªnµ °· Á ¸¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµ­µ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ­³© 2011, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)

Source: The World Bank

60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030

à ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥  n ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o µ ( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130 76,380

Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)

18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770

56

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

 n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É  ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¡°Ç ´ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ­³© Ï´ © à PPP

ѪѸ , ч 2011, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼѥьѥлоѠ Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)

Source: The World Bank

64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370

¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power

чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 86,440

( ) = World rank Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)

27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110

57

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¦Èª ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥¦ª¤ ­Îµ¦ª ¨nµ­» Ä ¸ 2011 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

23,236

14,963

2004

2009

2011

´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

17,403

12,297

2004

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

2011

¤ ´Ê ¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê ¸¨É ¨ Ä µ¦ ´¥q 2.10c – ­ ·Ë¬¶  §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

´¥q 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ­ ·Ë §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

58

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

59

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Š¨³Á · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ ¨ ¨ Ä Á ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 4.00% 3.50%

Head line

3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50%

Core*

1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

Á º° ¤¸. . 2013 ´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, єѨ.з. 2013 Veg & fruit

9.0

Tobacco & alcohol

7.6

Meat

6.6

Energy

6.2

Housing & furnishing

3.1

Prepared food at home

2.0

Non alcoholic beverage

1.9

Eggs & milk

1.8

Transport & Commu

1.4

Medical care

1.1

Food away from home

1.0

Recreation & Education

0.7

Rice

0.6

Apparel and footware

0.5

Seasoning

0.5

60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

° µ °· Á ¸¥Â¨³ µ ¸­ µ ¨³°µ ¦ª¤ Á · Á¢o ° ¸ É ÎµÉ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê ħ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Feb Pakistan Ͳ Feb Russia Ͳ Feb Brazil Ͳ Feb Indonesia Ͳ Feb

5.3

Singapore Ͳ Feb

4.9

Hong Kong Ͳ Feb

4.4

China Ͳ Feb

3.2

Taiwan Ͳ Feb

3.0

Thailand Ͳ Mar

2.7

Australia Ͳ Q4

2.2

US Ͳ Feb

2.0

Euro Area Ͳ Feb

1.8

Malaysia Ͳ Feb

1.5

South Korea Ͳ Feb

1.4

Japan Ͳ Jan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-0.3

¤Å ¹ ¦´­Á ¸¥ ¦³Á « nµ Ǩoª ¤¸° ´ ¦µ

2013* 10.9

8.8

7.4

7.7

7.3

6.3

6.3

6.1 5.5

3 3.8 4.3 4.3 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 0.1

61

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · £µª³Á · º Ä ¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ¼ o ¨·

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5% Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, єѨ.з. 2013 Livestocks Fishing Food Metal Mechinery Leather & footware Wood Transport equip NonͲmetallic mineral Chemical Pulp & paper Electrical equip Forestry Forestry Crop Basic metals Other manu goods Petroluem products Rubber & plastic Energy

14.9 12.8 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -2.2 -2.6 -6.5 -9.7 -9.8

62

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

63

­· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ¥µ¥ ´ª n°Á º°É

´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Ju

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Å­n¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100% 95% 89.6%

90.2%

92.8%

92.4%

9

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

J

91.7%

90% 85% 80% Feb-12 Mar-12

Source: Bank of Thailand

° Ä ³ ¸­É £µ¡ ¨n° ŤnÁ ¨¸¥É  ¨

ul-12

MͲoͲM

0.5% YͲoͲY

13.6% Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

92.2%

93.1%

Jan-13

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q

91.9%

Jul-12

90.8%

91.4%

Aug-12 Sep-12

91.1%

93.1%

Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

64

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å o¨ ¨ ´Ê Ä oµ ¦ Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤ Ä ¸ 2012

´¥q 3.03a –­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 592 477

05YE

06YE

445

07YE

458

08YE

401

09YE

380

10Y

´¥q 3.03b –­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

10.73% 8.16%

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

7.47%

07YE

7.31%

08YE

5.29%

4.85

09YE

10Y

¦·¤µ ¨³Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ­´ ­nª n°¥°

´¥Â ¶

0

YE

317

11YE

269

12YE

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

´¥Â ¶

5%

YE

3.60%

11YE

2.74%

12YE

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 65

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­´ ­nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r¨ ªnµ­¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ° ¸

´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ц ѝь Ѹѧ юѨ ѝч

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 14.0%

13.9%

13.4%

1

13.3% 12.4%

2003

2004

2005

Source: Bank of Thailand

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

¨ Á È 15.8% Ä Á º° ¤. . Â n¥ ´ º°

¤q ¬¶Ë  ¹¯ 16.5%

16.2%

14.8%

16.0%

2013

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

14.0% 2011

2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤ Ë ·Êà n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 30/3/2013

൞

3M riskͲfree interest rates Pakistan

9.5

India

8.1

Russia

7.4

Brazil

7.1

Indonesia

4.9

China

3.9

Malaysia

3.2

Australia

3.2

South Korea

2.8

Thailand Taiwan Hong Kong

2.5 0.9 0.5

US

0.3

Singapore

0.3

Euro Area

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

· ¨ ¦ª¤ ´Ê ¦³Á «Å ¥ oª¥

=

Expected 2013 inflation*

Real interest rates

7.7

1.8 8.8

-0.7

6.3

1.1

6.1

1.0

5.5

-0.6

4.3

-0.4

2.2

1.0

2.6

0.6

2.3

0.5

3.1

-0.6

1.5

-0.6 4.3

-3.8

1.8

-1.5 3.8

1.9 0.1

-3.5 -1.7 0.1

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° ¤¸. . ´ ¸ SET Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 1.3% ¡¦ nµ µ · ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ

5.1% 0.0%

1.9%

Oct-12

Nov-12

5.9% 4.6% 1.3%

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 20.0 15.0

E

10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 J-13

F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13

Source: SET, The Economist

J-13

A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

¦o°¤ ´ µ¦Å®¨ ¨´ ¤µ ° Á · ¨ » µ ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2012 ц њѤьъѨѷ 26/3/2013 Japan (Nikkei 225)

20.0%

Indonesia (JSX)

12.2%

US (DJIA)

11.1%

Thailand (SET)

10.9%

US (S&P 500)

9.6%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

9.3%

UK (FTSE 100)

8.5%

US (NAScomp)

7.7%

Australia (All Ord.)

6.4%

Pakistan (KSE)

5.7%

Singapore (STI)

3.8%

Germany (DAX)

3.5%

France (CAC 40)

3.0%

Taiwan (TWI)

2.0%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

1.9%

China (SSEA) S Korea (KOSPI)

1.2% -0.7%

HK (Hang Seng)

-1.5%

Malaysia (KLSE)

-2.1%

India (BSE) -3.7%

68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

69

¸ 2012 ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ­¼ ¤µ 10 ¸ ¤¸Á¡¸¥ ¸ 2009 Á nµ ´Ê ¸ É µ »¨¤µ ´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹¯Ê  ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ­´ ­nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸ ¨³Ä ¦° ªnµ

-0.3% -0.7% -1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

7% -2.6% -3.6% -3.9%

-4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY 70

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨¨ o°¥¨ ¤µ Ä nª Á ¸¥ª ´ Ä ¸ n° ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³

1,013

º§ ¥²£´

1

1,109

16

0

1,241

-36

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

1,484

110 -364

-996

-1,109 -1,277

-1,280 -1,629

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,598 -1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

ª 2 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ nª

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 0.0 2,078 ,751

1,902

-50.0

2013

-100.0 -150.0

-75

-28 -411

-200.0

2012 -250.0 -300.0

1,825

-1,930

-350.0 -2,489

-400.0 -450.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

71

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¸ 2012 ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ · ­¼ ­» Á

´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬

110 16 24

0

88

8 -36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY

È ¦³ª´ · µ¦ r

-28

-53 -52

-75

00 -96

-137

-264

-364 -401

-411 -446

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/2mo

72

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Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia Indonesia Taiwan Brazil China Euro Area Thailand Malaysia India US

-5.

Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll (**) Actual

Source: The Economist

-6.4 -9.0

¦³¤µ ° Å ¥ º°ªnµÅ¤n °o ¥Â n ÈŤnÁ¥°³

È 2.6 2.3 0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0 -2.8 -2.9 -4.1 -5.0 4

73

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ­µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ­¼ ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º° ¤. ´¥q 4.5a – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0

4.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0

1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

8%

8%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2012

Jan-13

7%

7%

Ext as

. . 2013 ´¥q 4.5b – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30% 25%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

5% 0%

2009

ternal debt percent of total

2010

2011

2012

Jan-13

74

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ­µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å ħ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan Source: CIA fact book

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64

¸­É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·

9

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 69 Thailand 74 Denmark 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 44 45 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

75

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• лѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝ 4 юѨ 2012 ѯшѧэѱш 18 Ѳьнњҕ кьѼѸ ѥъҕњє ѝњҕ ьъѤкѸ юѨ 2012 лѨчё Ѩ ѯѨ ш Ͳ дѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѐѤѷ кіѥѕ Ͳ ѝњҕ ьѲьч Җѥьдѥіяјѧш дѥіђѪѸ ье • ѓѥздѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ Ѳьѝњҕ ьеѠкѓѥзѯдќш • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ ьѨѸ Ѱє ҖлѣєѨдѥінѣјѠшѤњјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё.

• чѨєѥьчҙлѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѯіѧє ѷ єѨюѤрўѥ д • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѰјѣдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьді • ыѫідѧлєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕчє Ѩ ѥдеѩь Ѹ Ѡѫшѝѥў • ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. чѧѠѱѧ зѱьєѧѝшҙѱёјјҙюіѤэ ѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣў

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯч њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 2.7% Ѱјѣѯк ѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥідѶѕѤкзкъік ѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җј • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьѲьюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ ѯкѧьшҕѥкѵ

8.9% лѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ щѪѠѯюѶ ьѠѤшіѥъѨѝ ѷ кѬ єѥдѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥдуѥьъѨш ѷ Ѽѥѷ шѧэѱш 6.4% окѩѷ ьѤэњҕѥѝѬкѯдѧьдњҕѥъѨў ѷ јѥѕѝѼѥьѤдзѥчдѥіцҙѳњ Җ ѕлҕѥѕєѨяјєѥлѥддѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкъѤкѸ чѨєѥьчҙъкѤ Ѹ ѲьѰјѣшҕѥкюіѣѯъћ еѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє щѪѠѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤреѠкдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ Ѩ іѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѨяјяјѧшјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьд.ё. ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшчѨѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ . дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠднѣјѠшѤњщѩкдѤэшѧчјэ ѰшҕьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл діієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨєє ѫ єѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк јчдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ Ѱјѣјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥі ўњҕѥк 4.4-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.6-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

чѪѠьє.з. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.2% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѨ.з. 2013 ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧь

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьє.з.Ѱшҕ кшѤњѱчѕѝч јчјкѲьюѨ 2012 ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкзкшѤњ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчь ҖѠѕјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѯєѪѠ ѷ ыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 2 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ ѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠь єѨ.з. ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫј

76

»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Á È ª Ä 2 Á º° ¦ °

´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ

31.3 24.7

24.1

1.2 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

5.3 12FY

2.7 13/2mo

° ¸ ­µÁ® »®¨´ µ »¨ ¦· µ¦ ¸ É ¸ ¹Ê ¤µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B) 32.6

29.8

17.3

17.0

8.3 -2.2

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/2mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶ 1.6

+

-15.2

-10.7

08FY

09FY

-19.7

10FY

-11.1

-5.6

11FY

12FY

13/2mo

´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤ º ç² ©´£ §´  §¹Ê¯ ¬º ¶ 22.5

21.3 2.2

2.5

3.3

12FY

13/2mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

77

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ­³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q4 Taiwan Ͳ Q4

10.

Hong Kong Ͳ Q4

6.6%

Malaysia Ͳ Q4

6.2%

South Korea Ͳ Jan

4.4%

Russia Ͳ Q4

1.9%

China Ͳ Q4

1.8%

Thailand Ͳ Q4

1.6%

Euro Area Ͳ Jan

1.2%

Japan Ͳ Jan

0.9%

Pakistan Ͳ Q4

-1.5%

US Ͳ Q4

-2.6%

Indonesia Ͳ Q4

-2.9%

Brazil Ͳ Feb

-3.4%

Australia Ͳ Q4

-3.8%

India Ͳ Q3

-4.1%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡­¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 51.4

19.5%

49.6

.2%

hailand and NESDB

2.9 19.5 46.4 81.2 213.8 2.7 153.2 60.8 -2.0 -475.0 -24.2 -63.5 -56.5 -80.6

78

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ µ¦ oµÄ ¦¼ Á · µ · ¨ Ä 2 Á º°  ­¼ ªnµ µ¦­n °° ´¥q 5.03 – º§ ´¥ n´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

593

257

-111 -229

-275

-647 8FY

9FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/2MO

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition du (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balan (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balan

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¦ ° ¸ 2013 Á º°É µ µ¦ εÁ oµÃ Export**

5,851

6,113

6,708

7,091

5,195

1,084 8FY

-

9FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/2MO

Import***

6,983 5,962

7,739

5,857 4,602 1,313

8FY

9FY

10FY

11FY

ue to few adjustments nce of payment and exchange rate conversion nce of payment and exchange rate conversion

12FY

13/2MO

79

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0 03YE

04YE

05YE

06YE

07Y

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

40.3%

40.9%

03YE

04YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

35.4%

07YE

¨³­´ ­nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸

YE

%

E

08YE

09YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

12/4Q

38.9%

12/4Q

80

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­´ ­nª ° ¨¼ ® ¸Ê £µ ¦´ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ­ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

4%

96%

08YE

8%

92%

09YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

13%

15%

20%

87%

85%

80%

10YE

11YE

12/4Q

´¥q 5.11b – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£¥²¤²Â©§´­ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term

44%

44%

56%

56%

08YE

09YE

50%

50%

10YE

46%

45%

54%

55%

11YE

12/4Q

81

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤­µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѤѸ ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћіѣѕѣѝь

418% 372% 340%

330%

299% 257%

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

11YE

12/4Q

° Å ¥¥´ Ťn nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

´¥q 5.12b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© ´¥ Ï´¥²­ ·Ë . m¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯

10.3%

7.7%

07FY

08FY

7.3%

09FY

3.7%

3.8%

4.0%

10FY

11FY

12/4Q

82

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · ­Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Â

´¥q 5.13a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª* ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

´¥q 5.13b – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª лѼѥьњьѯчѪѠьъѨѝ ѷ ѥєѥіщѲннҖ ѥѼ іѣзҕѥдѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѳч Җ**

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

 n¥ ´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

191.7

206.4

205.8

202.4

2011

2012

Feb-13

10.0

9.5

2012

Feb-13

154.1

0

8

8

2009

13.8

2010

12.6 10.8

2009

2010

рѥ currency forward contracts

2011

83

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nµÁ · µ ¥´ Â È nµ ¹Ê °¸ 2%Ä Á º° ¦³ ¦oµÁ · µ µ¦ ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

112.0

Baht appreciates

110.0

108.0

106.0

104.0

MͲoͲM

2.0%

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

7.4%

Baht depreciates Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

98.0 96.0 Mar-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤¸. . Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ­ »¨Á · nµ ÇÄ

0

0

0

0

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§  §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 29/3/2013 PHP Ͳ 0.7301

0.0

MXN Ͳ 2.3833

-1.5

KRW Ͳ 0.0264

-2.9

CNY Ͳ 4.7947

-3.7

SGD Ͳ 23.8598

-3.7

0

AUD Ͳ 30.7933

-4.9

0

USD Ͳ 29.4476

-5.0

0

MYR Ͳ 9.6376

-5.7

TWD Ͳ 0.9858

-5.9

VND Ͳ 0.0014

-6.7

EUR Ͳ 37.8586

-8.7

GBP Ͳ 44.8895

-9.6

INR Ͳ 0.5799

-10.0

IDR Ͳ 3.2113

-10.3

JPY Ͳ 31.4463 -17.1 Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates 84

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