Monthly Economic Brief May 2013 issue
Executive summary Growth Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the growth for the whole year of 2012 was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. On the expenditure side, the growth was driven by all key expenditures. On the production side, the growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing. A recovery in Manufacturing and Agriculture production in March. Private consumption and investment continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March. Export recovered to register growth in the first 3 months of 2013, driven by Metal and Automotive. NAFTA, Japan, and Rest of the World are still problem markets. On the other hand, Import grew at a lower rate of 4.8%. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 19% in the period. Looking forward, both Fiscal and Monetary policies are proͲgrowth, but less so this year. Policy rate remains at 2.75%, a rather low level, while other interest rates in the market hardly change in March. Government expenditure so far this year is almost 20% lower than the same period last year.
Confidence in private s Businesses were more more pessimistic and C pessimistic.
BOT and Fiscal Policy O growth projections; co now between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2014.
Employment and wea Unemployment rate d February, still the lowe among major and eme
Thailand’s per capita in 4,420 in 2011, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector was a mixed one. e optimistic, Industries Consumers less
Stability Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low level by historical and international standards.
Office revised up their onsensus projection is % for 2013 and 4.6Ͳ5.0%
Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February, still a rather high level. Total system’s NPL decreased as percent to total loan in 1Q13.
alth distribution ecreased to 0.62% in est unemployment level erging economies.
Budget deficit for the first 3 months of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period last year. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 44% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.
ncome was at USD 83rd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Balance of Payment in the first 3 months of 2013 is positive thanks to improvement in net service income. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. Thai Baht continued to appreciate fast against a basket of key currencies in April.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
Page 4
9 15 21 31 34 37
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
40
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
43
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
53
47
57 63 70
3
2012 ended impressively with the significantly higher than consensu Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent
7.1%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3%
5.3%
6.3% 4.6%
2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
e real growth of 6.4%, us projections
18.9%
7.8% 6.4% 4.4% 3.0%
5%
0.1%
0.4%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing recovery compare behind impressive 4Q12 GDP grow Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 4Q12 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 18.9
GDP
37
Manufacture 25.4
Hotel&Res 15.3
Other social
14.1
Construction Utilities
13.2
Transport
12.8 11.9
Mining
9.9
Financial Education
8.7
RealEstate
8.0
Trading
7.6
PublicAdmin
4.6
Health&Social
4.6
Agriculture
2.2
Private HH
1.6
Fishing
-5.8
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ed to 4Q11 was the real reason wth
7.4
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 4Q12 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 18.9
GDP 12.8
Manufacture Transport
1.3
Hotel&Res
1.1
Trading
1.1
Utilities
0.5
Financial
0.5
Other social
0.3
RealEstate
0.3
Construction
0.3
Mining
0.3
Education
0.2
Agriculture
0.2
PublicAdmin
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
-0.1
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Manufacturing recovery was the GDP growth Chart 1.07a – Real growth by sector, 2012 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 6.4
GDP
11.5
Hotel&Res 9.6
Utilities Transport
8.0
Construction
7.8 7.4
Mining
7.0
Manufacture
6.6
Financial Trading
5.2
Education
5.0
Health&Social
4.6
Agriculture
4.4
Other social
4.1
RealEstate
3.9
PublicAdmin
3.6
Private HH Fishing -3.0 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
2.3
main reason for impressive 2012
Chart 1.07b – Sectoral contributions, 2012 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 6.4
GDP 2.7
Manufacture Transport
0.8
Trading
0.7
Hotel&Res
0.5
Utilities
0.3
Agriculture
0.3
Financial
0.3
Construction
0.2
Mining
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
Education
0.1
PublicAdmin
0.1
Other social
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
0.0
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Export contributed the most to to
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 4Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
18.9
I
28
X
19.0
ͲM
14.7
C
12.2
G
12.1
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
otal real GDP growth in 4Q12
Q12 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 4Q12
8.2
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
18.9
X
13.6
C
6.7
I
6.2
G
1.2
Discrpncy
ͲM
0.1
-8.9
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For the whole year of 2012, grow domestic demand (I and C)
Chart 1.09a – Real growth by expenditure, 20 YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
6.4
I
17.0
G
7.4
C
6.6
ͲM
X
6.2
2.9
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
wth was driven mainly by
012 Chart 1.09b – Expenditure Contributions, 2012 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
6.4
I
3.7
C
3.4
X
2.2
G
0.7
Discrpncy
ͲM
0.0
-3.7
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
9
Quick recovery in Manufacturing
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.1% 190.1 172.4 159.5
179.1 166.3
149.9 137.6 123.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
production in March
Monthly Average 250.0
172.9
177.2
200.0
2012
2013 150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM 14.4% YͲoͲY 0.5%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All sectors, but Leather, recovered
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector March 2013, percent
36
Vehicles 11.0
Tobacco Furniture
6.8
Textiles
6.3 3.8
Machineries Electrical
1.6
Chemical
1.6
Rubber&Plastic
1.4
Food & Bev
0.5
Mineral
0.2
Basic Mat
-0.1
Wood products
-0.3
Metal products
-4.6
Petroleum
-4.8
Leather
-4.8 -6.0
Paper Apparel
-8.6
Office automate -11.5 Transport Equip -13.7 Electronic-14.4 Precision instru -16.8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
d well from February dip
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector March 2013, percent
6.3
13.4 22.0 1.3 6.0 11.2 10.8 13.3 8.0 20.3 10.2 6.6 13.6 14.3 11.5 -1.0 1.4 1.7 22.0 16.2 8.1 23.2
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Capacity utilization rate picked up instrument and Vehicles still runn Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent
68.4
70.4
69.0
67.0 63.5
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
62.9
Jan-13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Feb-13
Mar-13
p strongly in March, Precision ning over normal capacities Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector March 2013, percent Vehicles Precision instru Chemical Machineries Mineral Petroleum Office automate Electrical Transport Equip Rubber&Plastic Paper Metal products Food & Bev Tobacco Basic Mat Electronic Textiles Apparel Furniture Leather Wood products
117.7 112.3 87.4 86.1 79.8 78.6 76.4 74.6 73.9 71.2 67.9 66.7 61.7 58.4 56.0 50.3 43.8 37.3 34.3 29.7 21.4
12 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the countries w a year ago
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago China Ͳ Mar Indonesia Ͳ Feb Australia Ͳ Q4 Pakistan Ͳ Feb US Ͳ Mar Russia Ͳ Mar Hong Kong Ͳ Q4 India Ͳ Feb Thailand Ͳ Mar Euro Area Ͳ Feb Brazil Ͳ Feb Taiwan Ͳ Mar
-4.
Malaysia Ͳ Feb -9.3
South Korea Ͳ Feb
-10.5
Japan Ͳ Feb Singapore Ͳ Feb Source: The Economist
-16.5
whose latest MPI increased from
x 8.9 5.6 4.8 3.9 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.5 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3
.5
13 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Pick up in Agriculture production still slightly lower than a year ago Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.3%
106.1
113.3 112.3 109.3 110.9
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
from last month in March, but o
Monthly Average 250.0
129.1
122.8
YͲoͲY Ͳ0.5%
200.0
MͲoͲM 3.3% 150.0
100.0
2013
2012
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
15
Private consumption dropped slig higher than a year ago
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
111.2
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2 127.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
ghtly from February but still
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.0
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
2013
2012 145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ1.1%
135.0
YͲoͲY
1.4% 130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most consumption expenditures year even with a dip in March Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 3 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
99
Passenger Car (Unit) 21.4
Commercial Car (Unit) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
10.4
NGV (kg.)*
9.7
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
7.8
Motocycle (Unit)
7.4
LPG (litre)*
6.3
Diesel (litre)
6.0
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
5.8
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
2.9
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
grew impressively so far this
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Mar vs Feb 2013, percent
9.9
9.7 0.8 -7.2 0.3 -3.7 -2.0 2.3 2.4 3.3 3.1
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment still growing t March Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.9%
172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8
192.9
183.3 160.8
133.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
his year, even with a dip in
Monthly Average 300.0
2013 250.0
2012 242.0 200.0
210.1
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.7%
YͲoͲY
3.4% 50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key private investment expend far this year Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 3 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
52
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
27.7
14.9
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
9.0
2.7
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ditures had impressive growth so
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Mar vs Feb 2013, percent
2.8
4.9
-0.3
1.7
-1.8
1.7
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Property indicators have largely b
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 2 months of 2013 vs those of 2012, percent
32
Value of land transaction
10.7
Condo unit registered
1.5
Constr. Area in municipal
New housing unit
-38.6
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
been positive so far this year
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Feb vs Jan 2013, percent
2.8
-0.8
-67.6
1.9
39.1
20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
21
Export has increased slightly in th by Metal and Automotive
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 3 months of 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export Metal Optical instru Automotive Chemicals Electrical PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Toiletries Machinery Furniture Electronics Aircrafts Agriculture Apparels Forestry Jewellery Footware Agro products Photo instru Petroleum Mining Fishery Other export ReͲexports
0.4 50.4 15.2 12.5 11.7 9.3 7.9 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.3 -3.5 -3.9 -4.6 -5.3 -5.6 -9.7 -19.3 -20.5 -80.0 -99.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
he first 3 months, driven mainly Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Metal Automotive Electrical Chemicals PetroͲchemical Optical instru Other manufacturing Machinery Toiletries Furniture Aircrafts Electronics ReͲexports Footware Forestry Agriculture Photo instru Apparels Jewellery Mining Fishery Petroleum Agro products Other export
0.4 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -2.6
22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Decrease in export to NAFTA, Jap of this year Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
7.1 (Trilli
100% =
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
Middle East
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
EU
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
11.3
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
11.7
11.1
11.3
12.7
12.2 18.4
18.1
17.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
an and ROW in the first 3 months
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 3 months of 2013 vs 2012
ion)
East Asia ex Japan
2.8%
EU
2.8%
ASEAN
2.0%
Middle East
1.5%
NAFTA
-0.4%
Japan
-2.1%
Rest of the world
-4.2%
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has gained more sh
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 6.0
Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Others
8.0
7.8
10.2
Capital goods
19.3
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
44.8
43.0
44.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
20.7
18.6
17.4
Consumer goods
7.1
8.3
7.5
08FY
09FY
10FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
hare this year
n
4
Y
Ѯ 7.0
Ѯ 7.7
12.4
10.9
21.3
24.6
Ѯ 2.0
(Trillion)
16.5
23.3
40.0
37.6
18.9
19.1
17.4
7.5
7.8
7.9
11FY
12FY
13/3MO
35.0
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has contributed m 2013
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 3 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
4.8
Total import
43.0
Others
Consumer goods
6.4
Capital goods
3.5
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-1.4
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
-6.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ost to import growth so far in
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
4.8
Total import
5.2
Others
0.8
Capital goods
0.5
Consumer goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
-0.5
-1.2
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Cumulative FDI in the first 2 mont same period last year Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
9,460
9,112 8,547 7,778
4,853
06FY
07FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
ths of 2013 is still lower than the
Monthly cumulative FDI* 10,000 9,000
2012 8,000
8,617
12FY
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
2013
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application for the first slightly less than the average ann
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
CAGR
21.5%
396 351 297 236
08FY
09FY
10FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
11FY
3 months of 2013 grew 18%, nual growth over the past 5 years
irect investment*
648
18%
158
134
12FY
2012/3M
2013/3M
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Japan has been the biggest source
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
17%
USA
10%
ANIEs
12%
3% 6% 6%
ASEAN
12%
17%
Europe
27%
23%
44%
Japan
22%
09FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
10FY
e of FDI for Thailand
kdown by country group
11% 27%
4% 10%
2% 7% 8%
7% 10%
5% 3% 15% 14% 7%
7%
49%
11FY
58%
55%
12FY
2013/3M 28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 19% in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 10.8
11.7
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism
the first 3 months of 2013
Monthly cumulative 25.0
22.3 19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
20.0
2012
15.0
10.0
5.0
2013 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
China accounted for half of the to far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
otal increase in tourist arrivals so
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 3 months of 2013 vs 2012, Thousands
542.4
China 120.6
Russia Japan Korea
% of total change
73.8 57.9
50% 11% 7% 5%
Singapore
39.7
4%
Hong Kong
39.3
4%
India
38.4
4%
Indonesia
33.9
3%
Taiwan
29.5
3%
Germany
27.5
3%
30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
31
No change in key interest rates in
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% May-12
2.60% Apr-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min May-12
0.00% Apr-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
n April
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% Apr-13
May-12
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min
5.00% 2.50%
May-12
anches
0.00% Apr-13
32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Almost 20% decrease in fiscal exp 2013
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2013 0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
penditure in the first 3 months of
2012
J
A
S
O
N
D
33
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
34
Businesses were more optimistic pessimistic in March Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better 52.1
52.0
50.6
51.1
51.2
54.4
50
Worse
0 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
while Industries were more
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
93.0
95.2
98.8
97.3
95.5
93.5
Worse
0 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumers were optimistic on fut on job and over all in March Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index 200
Better
100
On future incom
Worse
0 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 200 100 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior m Over 100 means consumer confidence is better than those of th Under 100 means consumer confidence is worse than those of t
Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC
ture income and less pessimistic
me
On job Overall
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
month he prior month the prior month
CC
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
37
BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revise for 2013 in April Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00
FPO NESDB
5.50
5.00
BOT 4.50
The Economist poll
4.00
3.50
3.00 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
ed up their growth projections
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
BOT
The Economist poll
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13
Forecast as of, month ending 38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are major economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of April 27th 2013 China 6.5
India
6.3
Indonesia 4.6
Malaysia
4.4
Thailand
4.0
Pakistan Brazil
3.2
Taiwan
3.2
Hong Kong
3.1
South Korea
2.9
Russia
2.8 2.6
Australia
2.3
Singapore
2.1
US Japan Euro Area -0.5
Source: The Economist
1.3
e relatively high compared to
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of April 27th 2013 8.4
7.8 7.2 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.7 2.7 1.3 0.9 39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
40
Unemployment rate decreased to
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
o 0.62% in February
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
0.80
2012 0.60
2013
0.40
0.68
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
41 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Feb Singapore Ͳ Q4 Malaysia Ͳ Feb
0.6 1.8 3.0
Hong Kong Ͳ Mar
3.5
South Korea Ͳ Mar
3.5
China Ͳ Q4
4.1
Taiwan Ͳ Mar
4.2
Japan Ͳ Feb
4.3
Brazil Ͳ Feb Australia Ͳ Mar Russia Ͳ Mar Pakistan Ͳ 2011 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 US Ͳ Mar India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Feb Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
5.6 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 7.6 9.9 12.0
42 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
43
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
47
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
49
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, Atlas method (current US$) Norway (1) Qatar (2) Luxembourg (3) Switzerland (4) Denmark (5) Sweden (6) Netherlands (7) US (8) Finland (9) Austria (10) Belgium (11) Canada (12) Japan (13) Germany (14) Singapore (15) France (16) UAE (17) Ireland (18) UK (19) Italy (20) Hong Kong (21) Iceland (22) Spain (23) Israel (24) Greece (25)
Source: The World Bank
60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 88,890 80,440 78,130
76,380
Czech Republic (29) Hungary (36) Brazil (46) Turkey (47) Argentina (49) Mexico (51) Malaysia (53) South Africa (65) Colombia (69) China (78) Thailand (83) Ecuador (85) Ukraine (100) Indonesia (103) Iraq (108) Egypt (109) Sri Lanka (110) Philippines (113) Bhutan (115) India (122) Vietnam (124) Nigeria (127) Lao PDR (130) Cambodia (139) Bangladesh (142)
18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th to 81st, with GNI per capita almos
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2011, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Luxembourg (2) Norway (3) Singapore (4) Switzerland (5) Hong Kong (6) US (7) UAE (8) Netherlands (9) Sweden (10) Austria (11) Denmark (12) Germany (13) Canada (14) Belgium (15) Australia (16) Finland (17) UK (18) France (19) Japan (20) Ireland (21) Italy (22) Spain (23) Iceland (24) Korea, Rep. (25)
Source: The World Bank
64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370
hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rank improved slightly st the same as China
es
( ) = World rank 86,440
Israel (26) Greece (30) Saudi Arabia (31) Czech Republic (33) Russia (36) Croatia (40) Turkey (44) Malaysia (47) Mexico (48) Mauritius (55) Brazil (63) South Africa (68) China (80) Thailand (81) Bhutan (92) Sri Lanka (93) Indonesia (102) Philippines (106) India (112) Vietnam (116) Lao PDR (119) Cambodia (126) Bangladesh (132) Nepal (145) Ethiopia (150)
27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 51
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
52
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
53
Both Head line and Core inflation
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 4.00% 3.50%
Head line
3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50%
Core*
1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
n decreased again in April
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product April 2013, percent 13.1
Veg & fruit 7.5
Tobacco & alcohol
6.2
Meat Energy
3.1
Housing & furnishing
3.1
Eggs & milk
3.1 2.1
Prepared food at home
1.6
Non alcoholic beverage Food away from home
1.1
Medical care
1.0
Rice
0.7
Apparel and footware
0.7
Recreation & Education
0.6
Seasoning
0.5
Transport & Commu
-0.1
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Mar Russia Ͳ Mar Pakistan Ͳ Mar Brazil Ͳ Mar
5
Indonesia Ͳ Mar Hong Kong Ͳ Mar
3.6
Singapore Ͳ Mar
3.5
Australia Ͳ Q1
2.5
Thailand Ͳ Apr
2.4 2.1
China Ͳ Mar Euro Area Ͳ Mar
1.7
Malaysia Ͳ Mar
1.6
US Ͳ Mar
1.5
Taiwan Ͳ Mar
1.4
South Korea Ͳ Mar
1.3
Japan Ͳ Feb Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist
-0.6
he low side compared to other
2013* 10.4
9.4
7.0
6.3
6.6
7.2 6.3
6.6
5.7
5.9 4.3 3.8 2.6 3.1 4.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 2.3 0.1
55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Deeper deflation for Producer pri
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
ice level in April
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product April 2013, percent Livestocks Fishing Food Metal Mechinery Leather & footware Transport equip NonͲmetallic mineral Crop Wood Pulp & paper Forestry Forestry Textile -0.3 Chemical -0.6 Basic metals -4.1 Other manu goods -5.6 Petroluem products -9.8 Rubber & plastic -12.3 Energy -13.0
24.3 20.4 4.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
57
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio dropped to 15 considered high by historical stan Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
5.7% in February but still ndard
nks* Month End 16.5%
16.2%
14.8%
16.0%
2013
15.5%
2012
15.0%
14.5%
2011
anches
2012
14.0%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased in amount bu total loan in the first quarter this
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
477
05YE
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans 8.16%
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85%
3.60
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
07YE
08YE
09YE
10Y
ut decreased as percentage of year
ss NPLs Outstanding
7
YE
270
256
11YE
12YE
257
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
0%
YE
2.75%
11YE
2.26%
12YE
2.18%
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Bank’s loan continued to increase tightened in February Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Au
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95% 90.2%
92.8%
92.4%
91.9%
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Jul-12
91.7%
9
90% 85% Mar-12
Source: Bank of Thailand
A
e while liquidity in the system
MͲoͲM
1.1% YͲoͲY
14.3%
ug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
93.1%
93.1%
Feb-13
it* ratio
90.8%
91.4%
Aug-12 Sep-12
91.1%
92.2%
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
93.9%
Feb-13
60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the many coun rates Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Apr 27th 2013
3M riskͲfree interest rates 9.6
Pakistan India
7.7
Brazil
7.5
Russia
7.4 4.9
Indonesia
3.9
China Australia
3.1
Malaysia
3.1 2.8
South Korea
2.5
Thailand Taiwan
0.9
Hong Kong
0.5
Singapore
0.3
US
0.3
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
tries with negative real interest
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
7.2
2.4 9.4
-1.7
6.3
1.2
6.3
1.1
5.7
-0.8
4.3
-0.4
2.6
0.5
2.2
0.9
2.3
0.5
3.1
-0.6
1.5
-0.6 4.3 3.8
1.9 1.7 0.1
-3.8 -3.5 -1.6 -1.5 0.1
61
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SET increased in April despite net Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end
5.1%
5.9% 4.6%
1.9% Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
1.3%
2.4%
Mar-13
Apr-13
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0
E
J-13
F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13
J-13
A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
t foreign fund out flow Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of Apr 27th 2013 33.2%
Japan (Nikkei 225) 16.1%
Indonesia (JSX) US (DJIA)
12.0%
Thailand (SET)
11.6%
Pakistan (KSE)
11.1%
US (S&P 500)
10.7%
UK (FTSE 100)
9.1%
Australia (All Ord.)
9.0%
US (NAScomp)
8.3%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
6.2%
France (CAC 40)
5.5%
Singapore (STI)
4.9%
Taiwan (TWI)
4.2% 3.3%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
1.9%
Germany (DAX)
1.1%
Malaysia (KLSE) India (BSE)
-1.3%
HK (Hang Seng) -2.1% China (SSEA) -2.3% S Korea (KOSPI) -3.1%
62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
63
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1% -0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
7% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY 64
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Budget deficit for the first 3 mont significantly compared to same p Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1
Revenue 1,013
1,109
16
0
Budget balance -996
-1,109
1,241
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1,484
110 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ths of 2013 improved eriod last year
Monthly cumulative Budget balance 0.0 ,751
1,902
2,079 -50.0
2013
-100.0 -150.0
-75
-28 -410
-200.0
2012
-250.0 -300.0
1,825
-1,930
-350.0 -2,489
-400.0 -450.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from 2010 and 2011, there between budget and cash balance Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
110 16 24
0
88
8 -36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
were not much differences e
plus)
-28
-75
00 -96
-130
-137
-110
-264
-364 -401
-410 -466
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/3mo
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is GDP
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia Indonesia Taiwan China Brazil Euro Area Thailand Malaysia India
-
US
-5. -6.4
Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-8.9
expected to be around 2.9% of
ercentage of GDP 2.6 2.3 0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -1.7 -2.0 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -4.2
-5.1 4
67 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt so
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010
2011
2012
Feb-13
8%
8%
7%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Ext as
o far in 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
Feb-13
68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
69
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Real GDP in 4Q/2012, grew 18.9% y growth for the whole year of 2012 Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Ͳ On the production side, the • A recovery in Manufacturing and A • Private consumption and investme • Export has recovered, while Import • Monetary and Fiscal policies are sti • Businesses were more optimistic, I • BOT and Fiscal Policy Office revised between 4.4Ͳ5.3% for 2013 and 4.6
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.4% level by historical and internationa • Banking system is quite stable. Ban system’s NPL decreased as percent • Budget deficit for the first 3 month last year. Public debt is increasing b • Balance of Payment so far this year dangerous. THB continued to appre
yͲoͲy, a massive level, thanks to last year low base; while the was 6.4%, higher than the consensus projections. he growth was driven by all key expenditures e growth was driven by the resurgence of Manufacturing Agriculture production in March nt continue their strong growth, even with a dip in March t grew less. Tourist arrivals grew strongly. ill proͲgrowth, but less so this year ndustries more pessimistic and Consumers less pessimistic d up their growth projections; consensus projection is now 6Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.62% in February, a very low level compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
% in April, while Core inflation dropped to 1.2%, a rather low l standards nk’s capital ratio dropped slightly to 15.7% in February. Total t to total loan in 1Q13. hs of 2013 improved significantly compared to same period but not too worrying just yet. r is positive. External debt has been increasing but still not eciate in April.
70
Positive Balance of Payments in t largely to net service income
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
1.2 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5.3 12FY
2.6 13/3mo
he first 3 months of 2013 due Trade Balance (F.O.B)
on
32.6
29.8
17.3
17.0
8.3 -0.2
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/3mo
Net service income & transfer 1.5
+
-15.2
-10.7
08FY
09FY
-19.7
10FY
-11.1
-5.6
11FY
12FY
13/3mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.2
2.5
1.3
12FY
13/3mo
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q4
1
Taiwan Ͳ Q4 5.9%
Malaysia Ͳ Q4
4.5%
South Korea Ͳ Feb Russia Ͳ Q1
1.9%
China Ͳ Q1
1.9%
Thailand Ͳ Q4
1.6%
Euro Area Ͳ Feb
1.6%
Japan Ͳ Feb
0.9%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q4
0.7%
Pakistan Ͳ Q1 Indonesia Ͳ Q4
-0.9% -2.1%
US Ͳ Q4
-2.8%
Brazil Ͳ Mar
-3.0%
Australia Ͳ Q4 India Ͳ Q4
-3.8% -4.3%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 51.4
19.5%
49.6
1.0%
Thailand and NESDB
19.5 48.6 63.5 193.1 2.7 173.2 53.8 2.9 -2.7 -24.2 -475.0 -67.0 -56.5 -93.4
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Negative trade balance so far in 2 export Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
593
257
-111 -263
-275
-647 8FY
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/3MO
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of p (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of p
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2013 as import grew faster than
Export**
5,851
6,113
6,708
7,091
5,195
1,700 8FY
Ͳ
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY 13/3MO
Import***
6,983
5,962
7,739
5,857 4,602 1,963
8FY
9FY
w adjustments ayment and exchange rate conversion payment and exchange rate conversion
10FY
11FY
12FY 13/3MO
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in b terms Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0 03YE
04YE
05YE
06YE
07Y
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.3%
40.9%
03YE
04YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
35.4%
07YE
both absolute and relative to GDP
YE
%
E
08YE
09YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
12/4Q
38.9%
12/4Q
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
More public debt and more longͲ composition in 2012 Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
4%
96%
08YE
8%
92%
09YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
13%
15%
20%
87%
85%
80%
10YE
11YE
12/4Q
term debt in external debt
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
44%
56%
56%
08YE
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
46%
45%
54%
55%
11YE
12/4Q
75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt 418% 372% 340%
330%
299% 257%
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12/4Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
10.3%
7.7%
07FY
08FY
7.3%
09FY
3.7%
3.8%
4.0%
10FY
11FY
12/4Q
76 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly so far this year but
191.7
206.4
205.8
201.5
2011
2012
Mar-13
10.0
9.6
2012
Mar-13
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
77 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated another 1.7% in
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
114.0
Baht appreciates
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
MͲoͲM
1.7%
Baht depreciates Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
98.0
10.0%
96.0
Jan-13
94.0 Apr-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
April
e
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of April 30th 2013 1.4
MXN Ͳ 2.4129 PHP Ͳ 0.7254
-2.0
0
KRW Ͳ 0.0267
-2.2
0
CNY Ͳ 4.8315
-2.5
0
SGD Ͳ 24.0009
-4.3
MYR Ͳ 9.8281
-4.4
USD Ͳ 29.4578
-4.6
0
0
0
0
TWD Ͳ 0.9997
-5.4
AUD Ͳ 30.6345
-5.5
EUR Ͳ 38.6646
-5.7
VND Ͳ 0.0014
-6.7
INR Ͳ 0.5822
-7.2 -9.2
GBP Ͳ 45.7317
-11.8
IDR Ͳ 3.1805 JPY Ͳ 30.2487
-21.8
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 78
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