Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 31st issue: กันยายน 2557
ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน
• • • • •
จีดีพีไตรมาสสอง ฟื้ นตัว ความเชื่อมัน่ ปรับตัวดีขนึ้ วิกฤตภาคการผลิต ปั ญหาเรื่องนักท่องเที่ยว และดัชนีศก.อื่นๆอย่างรอบด้าน ภาษาไทย
Cover story
THAILAND’S MANUFACTURING 7 Revealing Charts About Its Declining Trend
สรุปภาวะเศรษฐกิจไทย ไตรมาสที่สอง ISSN: 2286‐6132
MONTHLY ECONOMIC
Current State of the Thai Economy, Visually Explained
CONTENTS All Aspects of the Economy Updating Every Month • • • • • • • • • • • • •
GDP structure Historical GDP growth Latest GDP growth drivers Production Indices Consumption and Investment Indices Confidence Indices (Consumers, Businesses) Consensus growth projections
Per capita income Share of income by group Income distribution by region Poverty rate by region Unemployment rate trend Gross Provincial Product • • • • •
Policy Interest rates Bank’s loan and NPL Bank’s capital Stock market performance Inflation (CPI, PPI)
• Government budget balance • Composition of public debt • Budget balance projection
• • • • • • •
Balance of payment, Current Account Trade balance Export/Import trend External debt International reserves Foreign direct investment Tourism
VISUAL GRAPHIC Leveraging charts to explain economic indicators Our charts give readers insights by identifying the key drivers of change
Summary of key points for each chapter
Plenty of good economic forecasts are fee, we pick the best ones and chart them
INTERACTIVES Create your own perspectives
This interactive global map and chart comparing historical GDP growth of any set of countries around the world is just one of our many interactive charts to let you create your own perspectives.
Find out export situation by each market at your fingertip.
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њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь
Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк
Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє
ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ
ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр
ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ
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ѯћіќудѧлчѬѯўєѪѠьњҕѥлѣё ҖьлѥдлѫчшѼѥѷ ѝѫчѳюѰј ҖњўјѤклѥдшѤњѯјелѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ь Ѫѷ єѤѷьъѤкѸ лѥдѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓздѶ ѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкѠѠдєѥ зњѥєѯнѠ юіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѠѕҕѥкѳідѶчю Ѩ Ѥ рўѥеѠкѯћіќудѧліѣѕѣѕѥњѕѤкзкѠѕѬҕ Cover story еѠкѯіѥѲьмэѤэьѨл Ѹ ѣёѥъҕѥьѳючѬѓѥњдѥіцҙщчщѠѕеѠк ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієдѥіяјѧшеѠкѳъѕ ъѨь ѷ ѤэдѤьліѧкѵдѶєѰ Ѩ ьњѱь Җє шҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кдѤьєѥщѩк 24 ѯчѪѠьѰј Җњ лѫчьѨщ Ѹ Ѡ Ѫ ѯюѶ ьюѤ рўѥѲўрҕўјњкъѨш ѷ ҖѠк Ѥ ѝњҕ ьѝѬкєѥдѲьлѨчё ѳч ҖіѤэдѥіѰд Җѳе ѯёіѥѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієьѤь Ѹ єѨѝч Ѩ Ѱ Ѩ јѣ єѨяјшҕѠѯћіќудѧлѲьѝњҕ ьѠѪь ѷ ѵѠѕѬє ҕ ѥд яєўњѤкњҕѥъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьлѣѳч Җюіѣѱѕньҙлѥдњѧыд Ѩ ѥіеѠкѯіѥ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьмэѤэ ўь ҖѥзіѤэ
ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com
5
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THAILAND MANUFAC
7 Revealing Charts About Its De
D’S CTURING
eclining Trend
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n
Manufacturing has and butter for the
Manufacturing share of GDP Percentage 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%
0.0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
been the bread Thai economy
03 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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o
Manufacturing is Export
Export by product group Percent of total export in Baht term (custom basis)
100% = 5.2
6.1
6.7
7.1
6.9
4.2
Others
6.9
6.2
5.6
5.8
Agriculture
8.0
8.7
10.6
7.9
4.0 8.0
4.0 7.9
Manufacturing
85.1
85.1
83.7
86.2
88.0
88.1
9FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14/7MO
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
s Thailand’s
(Trillion)
Top 10 Manufacturing export % of total export Electronics
14.2
Automotive
14.1
Agro products
12.0
Machinery
8.5
PetroͲchemical
5.9
Electrical
5.6
Petroleum Metal Chemicals Apparels
4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4
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p
After recovering from th Manufacturing has been trend
Manufacturing Production Index Annual average Year 2000 is the base month, seasonally adjusted 250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
0.00
he 2011 flood crisis, on 24-month declining
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
24-month Declining trend
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
2011 Flood crisis
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q
The declining trend hap ALL industries Change in MPI by sector Seasonally adjusted, May 2012 vs July 2014, percentage Electronic Basic Mat Wood products Rubber&Plastic Tobacco Electrical Precision instruments Textiles Paper Metal products Chemical Mineral Leather Apparel Total MPI Office automate Petroleum Furniture Machineries Food & Bev Vehicles Transport Equip
-13.6 -19.6% -20.1% -21.2% -21.8% -22.1% -26.3% -34.5%
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ppens to most but NOT
11.4% 11.3% 10.2% 9.9% 8.4% 7.3% 5.1% 4.3% 3.3% -1.1% -2.8% -3.3% -6.7% -8.9%
6%
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r
It’s NOT the Wo
Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Jun China Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Vietnam Ͳ Aug Taiwan Ͳ Jul Australia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Jul India Ͳ Jun South Korea Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Russia Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jun Euro Area Ͳ Jun Japan Ͳ Jul Thailand Ͳ Jul Brazil Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist
1 0.3 0.0 -0.9 -5.2 -6.9
orld Economy 13.3 9.0 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.0 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.1
1.6
Thailand’s MPI growth has been consistently lagging other economies
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s
It’s the country’s competitiveness
Source: World Economic Forum
s deteriorating
• Declining competitiveness ranking for Thailand since 2007 • Big improvement in competitiveness ranking for Indonesia and Philippines recently
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t
Thailand’s at the Innovate or Die
STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT Stage 1: Factor-driven (38 economies)
Characteristics
Main Factors
Transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2 (20 economies)
Sta Efficien (31 ec
• Mainly factor-driven • Compete based on primarily low-skilled labor and natural resources • Low productivity reflected in low wages
• Becomes • Productivi and wage • Compete efficiency process
1. Public and Private institutions 2. Infrastructure 3. Macroeconomic environment 4. Health and primary education
5. Higher e training 6. Goods m 7. Labor m 8. Financia develop 9. Technol 10.Market s
Source: World Economic Forum
e crossroad:
age 2: ncy-driven conomies)
Transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3 (22 economies)
Stage 3: Innovation-driven (37 economies)
more competitive ity will increase s will rise by increasing in production
• Wages will have risen by so much • Must compete by producing new and different goods through new technologies or business models
education and
11.Business sophistication 12.Innovation
market efficiency market efficiency al market ment ogical readiness size
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บทสรุ ปผู ้บริหาร การเติบโต
ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ к ѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰјѣдѥіјчјкеѠк дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзіѤу ѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш ѝњҕ ьѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзк ѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю ѲьецѣъѨя ѷ јяјѧш ѓѥзѯдќшіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨлѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯіѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњ ѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ Ѱє Җњҕѥдѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥдшюъ.лѣ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѱшҕєј Ѭ зҕѥеѠкѱзікдѥіјкъѫь BOI дѶјчјк ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙ ѝњҕ ьѲўрҕѯшѧэѱшјчјкѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ Ѳь 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш 8% ѲьецѣъѨѷ ѯшѧэѱшшѧчјэѲьіѬюѯкѧьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Ѱѝчкщѩкѝщѥьдѥіцҙдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдъѨѕ ѷ Ѥкѳєҕч Ѩ еѩь Ѹ ьѤд ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥшѧчјэъѤкѸ ѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѰјѣчѠјјѥіҙ лѥддѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥ ѷ њѕѤкьҕѥѯюѶ ьўҕњкѯёіѥѣѕѠчдѥіѯе ҖѥєѥъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њ њѤшщѫчэ ѧ ъѨј ѷ чјк ч ҖѥььѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ јчјк 10% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь Җѥьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѯь Җьдіѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѠѤшіѥ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк ѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ ҖьѯћіќудѧліѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕ Ѫѷ єѤѷьъѤкѸ ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзюіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зњѥєѯнѠ ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
การจ้างงานและการกระจายรายได้
ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэ ѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 103 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч Җєѥддњҕѥзь ѯњѨѕчьѥєѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ь Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤк ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013 ѯіѶњъѼѥѲў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє
เสถียรภาพทางเศรษฐกิจ
ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% ѰшҕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠь Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікшѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җ ыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ.ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјк дњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѱшҕ Ѥ шіѥѕ ѕѤкѳєҕѠь ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨеь ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫјдѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶк зҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
16
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
50
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
57
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
63
19 25 34 41 44 47
53
67 73 80
15
Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É ° ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¢Ê Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 7.1% 6.3% 5.3%
CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5%
-2.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
¢º ´ªÃ ¥Á · à Šo 0.4% µ nª
7.8% 6.5%
2.9%
0.4%
0.1% -0.5%
3%
09 2010 2011 2012 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
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µ¦ ³¨° ´ª ° £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ Á È ¸É ° εÉ
´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 0.4
GDP
6.1
Financial
5.3
Transport 4.0
PublicAdmin
3.4
Utilities Agriculture
2.7
Education
2.6 1.5
Private HH
0.9
Health&Social
0.3
Trading -0.7
RealEstate
-1.2
Fishing Manufacture
-1.6
Mining
-1.7 -2.6
Other social Construction
-3.2
Hotel&Res-4.2
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
nª ε ´ ¸ É ÎµÄ®o µ¦Á · Ã Ä Å ¦¤µ
4
´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 0.4
GDP
0.5
Transport 0.3
Financial
0.2
Agriculture Utilities
0.1
PublicAdmin
0.1
Education
0.1
Trading
0.0
Health&Social
0.0
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
0.0
RealEstate
0.0
Mining
0.0
Other social
-0.1
Construction
-0.1 -0.2
Hotel&Res Manufacture
-0.6
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µ¦¨ ¨ ° µ¦ εÁ oµ¤¸nª ¦³ » o µ¦Á ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ
G
1.9
X (goods)
1.5
GDP
0.4
M (services)
0.2
C
0.2
I (capital)
-6.9
X (services)
-8.4
M (goods) I
-10.8 -20.4
Note: (*) C = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь, I = дѥіјкъѫь ѰэҕкѯюѶ ь I (capital) = дѥіѝѣѝєъѫь Ѱјѣ I (inve ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕѳч ҖлѥддѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ G = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзіѤу, X = дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѝь ѷ њ
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡¤¸ µ ¸É » Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É ° ´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ
M (goods)
5.7
X (goods)
0.8
GDP
0.4
G
0.2
C
0.1
Discrpncy
0.1
M (services)
0.0
X (services)
-1.3
I (capital) I (Inventory)
-1.7 -3.6
ѧ з ҖѥзкѯўјѪѠ entory) = дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкеѠкѝь ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѳюѯъѨѕ њ), M = дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѝь ѷ њшюъ.)
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
19
¨ ¨· £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ ® ´ªÄ Á
´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR
2.7%
194.2 174.6 152.1
182.9
161.1
170.0
177.6
138.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
° . .
 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0
200.0
2013
181.6
175.7
150.0
2014
M-o-M
100.0
-2.2%
Y-o-Y
50.0
-5.2%
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
20
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Ä Á º° . . °» µ® ¦¦¤nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, д.з. 2014 Electronic
17.6
Precision instru
17.3 13.6
Wood products Leather
9.2
Basic Mat
9.1
Rubber&Plastic
8.9 5.8
Metal products
3.1
Office automate
1.0
Paper Chemical
-2.3
Machineries
-3.4
Textiles
-3.4
Apparel
-4.6
Food & Bev
-4.9
Mineral
-5.2 -6.7
Furniture
-9.8
Electrical
-13.3
Tobacco Petroleum
-19.7
Transport Equip
-23.8
Vehicles
-24.2
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
¨· ¨ ¨ °¥nµ ¤µ µ Á º° n° ® oµ ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014 5.6 2.3 0.9 -0.9 -6.0 2.8 -1.8 -3.0 -0.5 0.8 -2.6 1.6 -1.4 -5.4 2.6 0.2 7.6 -21.2 -3.7 -12.9 -5.4
21
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°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· à ¥¦ª¤¨ ¨ µ ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
Seasonally adjusted Normal
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Jul-14
µ¤Â ªÃ o¤Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, д.з. 2014 Rubber&Plastic Wood products Electrical Textiles Chemical Basic Mat Metal products Furniture Office automate Leather Electronic Food & Bev Precision instru Mineral Paper Vehicles Transport Equip Petroleum Machineries Tobacco Apparel
86% 84% 81% 75% 74% 73% 71% 71% 65% 64% 63% 60% 59% 58% 51% 45% 44% 42% 41% 34% 29%
22
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°´ ¦µ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» µ® ¦¦¤ Á«¦¬ · ε ´ ° è ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Philippines Ͳ Jun China Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Vietnam Ͳ Aug Taiwan Ͳ Jul Australia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Jul India Ͳ Jun South Korea Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Russia Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jun
0
Euro Area Ͳ Jun -0.9
Japan Ͳ Jul -5.2
Thailand Ͳ Jul Brazil Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist
-6.9
¤ ° Å ¥ 뵃 Á º° ¸É » Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´
13.3 9.0 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.0 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.1 1.6 0.3
0.0
23
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Ä Á º° . . ¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦ ¦´ Á¡·¤É
´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´  « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR
3.0% 122.5
100.0
105.9
113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°
 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0 Y-o-Y
128.4 126.6
+4.3% 200.0 M-o-M
-11.5% 150.0
2014 2013 100.0
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
and Cooperatives
J F M A M J J A S O N D
24
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¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦
´¥Â ¶ Ä
´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n
¬ ·¤¥¢´
• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
25
Ä Á º° . . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ¦³Á Ê Á ¸¥ª ´ ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯ (2000 = 100)
CAGR
2.5%
117.8
126.1 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2
139.2
127.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted
Source: Bank of Thailand
º° ¹Ê µ ´Ê Á º° n° ® oµÂ¨³ nª
147.0 147.5
12-Avg 13-Avg
 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 150.0
149.0
148.0
2013 147.0
2014 146.0
145.0
144.0
Y-o-Y
M-o-M
+0.2%
+0.9%
143.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
26
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µ¦ ¦·Ã£ ³¨° ´ªÄ ®¨µ¥ oµ Ä nª ¸ É ¥µ ¡µ® ³ ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 NGV (kg.)* LPG (litre)*
1
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
0
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
0
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
0
Diesel (litre)
0
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
-6.4 -18.9
Motocycle (Unit) -32.4
Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)
-46.5
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê à ¥Á ¡µ³¥° µ¦ ºÊ ° ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014 3.9
-0.7 0.5
1.1
5.7
0.9 -1.1
0.8
2.8
0.5 -0.1
0.1
3.7 6.7 0.7 -4.3
27
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µ¦¨ » Á° ¥´ ¨ ¨ °¥nµ n°Á º°É
´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯ (2000 = 100)
CAGR
4.9% 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0
193.5
183.9 161.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 260.0 M-o-M
255.0
-0.4%
250.0 Y-o-Y
240.8 240.1
12-Avg 13-Avg
-3.4% 245.0
2013
240.0 235.0 230.0
2014 225.0 220.0 215.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
28
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¥° µ¥¦ ¥ rÁ¡º°É µ¦¡µ · ¥rÅ o¦ ´ ¨
´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
1.8
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
1.7
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car -31.9 sales (unit)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-1.1
-5.9
¦³ ¤µ ¸É» Ä ¸ ¸Ê
´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014
-0.4
-0.2
-0.8
-0.5
-0.7
29
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É Á º° 50
´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ
1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547
4,853 3,861
07FY
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
0% Ä nª 6 Á º° ¦ ° ¸
´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 14,000
12,807
13FY
12,000
2013 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2014 2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ¨ ¨ 12%
´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ
648
396 351 236
09FY
10FY
11FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
12FY
· · ø °Å°Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê
.¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯
525
298 261
13FY
2013/7M
2014/7M
31
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
´ ¸°´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥rnª Ä® n® ´ªÄ nª
´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 6 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2014
-1.2
Condo unit registered
-8.3
Constr. Area in municipal
New housing unit
Value of land transaction -16.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-12.6
¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸
´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, єѧ.ѕ. 2014
-9.7
-14.0
-34.1
17.6
32
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦
´¥Â ¶ Ä
´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
33
»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ
´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´ нњҕ к 5 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ , ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 5,000
4,000
3,000
2 2,000
2
-4.9%
+8.4%
1,000
0
-1,000
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjust (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
¨ ¨ ¨³Á · µ ¸°É n° nµ
2013
´¥q 5.03b – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ¯§§´¥q¬¥³ ± нњҕ к 5 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ , ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 140 120 100 80
2014 60
-0.4%
-12.5%
40 20 0 -20 -40
Export
tments and exchange rate conversion and exchange rate conversion
–
Import
=
Trade balance
34
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
µ¦n °° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ ° · oµn °° nª Ä® nà ¥Á ¡µ³Á ¦º°É ´ ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 Total export ReͲexports Other export Machinery PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Jewellery Electrical Automotive Footware Furniture Optical instru Apparels Agriculture Electronics Fishery Toiletries Forestry Agro products Chemicals Petroleum -0.1 Photo instru -11.1 Metal -11.9 Aircrafts -13.6 Mining-33.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
8.4 >100.0 59.1 19.2 18.1 16.8 13.6 13.2 11.1 10.6 9.7 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 7.2 5.4 4.6 3.3 0.7
¸ à ¥Å o°µ · r µ µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ¦Â¨³¥µ ¥ r ´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Automotive Machinery Electronics PetroͲchemical Other export Electrical Agriculture Other manufacturing Agro products Jewellery Apparels ReͲexports Optical instru Fishery Toiletries Furniture Footware Chemicals Forestry Petroleum Photo instru Aircrafts Mining Metal
8.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6
35
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
µ¦n °° Ä ¦¼ Á · µ Á · Ã Ä » ¨µ ¨³°µÁ ¸¥ ¨´ ¤¸ µ¦Á · Ã ÎµÉ » ´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч 100% =
6.9 (Trilli
5.2
6.1
6.7
7.1
Middle East
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
EU
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
Japan
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
12.2
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
17.4
18.1
16.7
18.4
18.1
East Asia exͲJapan
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
NAFTA Rest of the world
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê  n ¨µ Á°Á ¸¥
´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014
ion) 16.9%
EU Middle East
13.8%
11.7%
NAFTA
Japan
8.0%
Rest of the world
6.5%
East Asia ex Japan
6.5%
ASEAN
5.7%
36
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
µ¦ εÁ oµ¨ ¨ 5% Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ °ºÉ ¸¨É ¨ ¤µ ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014
-4.9
Total import
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
4
Consumer goods
2.
Capital goods
0.9
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
0.7
Others
-47.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
° ¸ ¸Ê µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ· oµ
´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь
-4.9
Total import
4.5
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
.7
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
0.2
9
Consumer goods
0.2
7
Capital goods
0.2
0.9
Others-6.4
37
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª¨ ¨ 10% Ä nª 7
´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ
CAGR
10.6%
19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8
11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY Source: Department of Tourism
Á º° ¦ ° ¸
³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 30.0
26.7 25.0
22.4
Y 12FY 13FY
2013 20.0
15.0
10.0
2014 5.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
38
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ ¨µªÂ¨³¦´Á ¸¥Á oµ¤µÁ¡·¤É ´¥q 5.19a
Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© à m ´£¬³ ´ ¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч
Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.3 6.0
28.7
15.6 5.3
27.9
14.7
13.8
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.3
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
11.8 4.4
23.6
60.2
13FY
¤ ¹Ê ¤µ ¸É » Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 5.19b
10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â ª ·Ê£ · Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ ·Ê¬º £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·Êçn© нњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014, ёѤьзіѤкѸ 121.6
Laos 69.9
Russia 28.0
France
22.5
United Kingdom Cambodia
13.8
Italy
9.0
Myanmar
7.8
Finland
7.5
Brazil
5.6
Switzerland
5.5
39
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦
´¥Â ¶ Ä
´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
40
° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ´ª ¸É 2% Á n Á ·¤Ä Á
´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë Ĥ ´¤ . 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Aug-14
Sep-13
´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max Min Sep-13 Note: (*) Bangkok Inter Bank Offer Rate
Source: Bank of Thailand
2.50%
0.00% Aug-14
º° . .
´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ BIBOR*
Sep-13
2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Aug-14
´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Sep-13
0.00% Aug-14
41
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¦³¤µ ¦´ ²Á¦·¤É ¼ Á · n µ¥Å o¤µ ¹Ê
´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2014
0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
2013
J
A
S
O
N
D
42
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¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦
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¬ ·¤¥¢´
• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
43
»¦ · ¨³£µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¤° è Ä Â n¦ ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100
Better
50
46.5
49.4 44.3
48.6
48.0
49.6
Worse
0 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Source: Bank of Thailand
¦oµ¥¨ ¨ ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£** 200
Better
100
85.7
84.7
84.0
85.1
88.4
89.7
Worse
0 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° è Ä Â n¦µo ¥¨ ¨ Ä Á º°
´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Jan-14
Mar-1
(*) มีค่าอยู ่ระหว่าง 0-100 ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่สูงกว่า 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆจะดีขนึ้ หรืออยู ่ในระดับดี ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่ในระดับ 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง หรือทรงตัวอยู ่ในร ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่ในตํา่ กว่า 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆจะแย่ลงหรืออยู ่ในระดับไม่ดี
Source: Ministry of Commerce
. .
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 4
May-14
Jul-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
ระดับปานกลาง
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
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´¥Â ¶ Ä
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
46
£µ¡´ r² ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50
FPO The Economist poll
3.00 2.50
NESDB
2.00 1.50
BOT 1.00 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom
Ã Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¨
ist
´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 6.00 5.50
BOT
5.00 4.50
The Economist poll
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Forecast as of, month ending 47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
宦´ ¸ 2014 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 29/8/2014 7.5
China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Pakistan Indonesia Singapore South Korea Taiwan
6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.4
Australia Hong Kong US Thailand Japan Euro Area Brazil Russia
Source: The Economist
2.0 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.2
¦ rªnµ ³Á · à 1.9% ¹É º°ªnµ 뵃 ¸É » Ä ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 29/8/2014 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.5 5.6 4.1 6.0 4.4 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.0 4.5 1.2 1.6 1.8 0.7 48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
49
°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ 뵃 ¨ ªnµ 1% °¸ ¦´Ê ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
0.68
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
Ä Á º° . .
 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1.40
1.20
2014 1.00
0.80
2013
0.60
0.66
0.72
12-Avg 13-Avg
0.40
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ 뵃 ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jun
1.0 2.0 2.8
Hong Kong Ͳ Jul
3.3
South Korea Ͳ Jul
3.4
Vietnam Ͳ 2013 Japan Ͳ Jul
3.6 3.8
Taiwan Ͳ Jul
4.0
China Ͳ Q2
4.1
Brazil Ͳ Apr Russia Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ 2013 Australia Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2013 Euro Area Ͳ Jul Source: The Economist
°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ
4.9 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.4 7.0 8.8 11.5
51
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
52
 ªÃ o¤ µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oà ¥¦ª¤ ¸
´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê* 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
¹Ê  nÄ ¤. ¨´ Â¥n¨
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
53
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© à m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê  n ÈŤn¤µ ´
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 54
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « ε¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nŠħ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥  ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨Îʵ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´
20%, §m´¬º
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
55
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦
´¥Â ¶ Ä
´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n
¬ ·¤¥¢´
• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
56
Î µ ª ¨³´ nª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ´¥q 2.04a
´¥q 2.04b
¬n ©´£¤´
Ï´ © »n¤´
эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь
ј Җѥьзь
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
¨ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ Ä ¤. ´¥q 2.04c
¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
North East
South
'03
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
57
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Šħ
Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
¤¸ ´ nª ¥µ ¼
ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
58
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ Áª¸¥ µ¤Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµµ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© 2013 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
13 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110
à ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥  n¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ
36,770
( ) = World rank 186,950
France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,… Brunei Darussalam… Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)
42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270
59
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 n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É  ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© Ï´ © à PPP 2013 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼ Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
66,
66, 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630
¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power ѪѸ , чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ ѥьѥлоѠ
88,170 76,850
8,090
,520
,390
( ) = World rank France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation… 23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 TimorͲLeste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760
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¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê oµ ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥Â¨³ µ¦Îµ¦ª ¨nµ» Ä ¸ 2013 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь
23,236 14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
2011
25,403
2013
´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
17,403
2011
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
19,259
2013
³® ¸Ê εĮo¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Ä ´¥q 2.10c – ·Ë¬¶  §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ 159,492 104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,900
2011
2013
´¥q 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ·Ë §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2011
2.2
2013
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
62
Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Å ¨ ¨  nÁ · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ Á¡·¤É n° oµ 뵃 ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.00%
2.50%
Head line 2.00%
Core* 1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
¹Ê Ä Á º° . .  n Ê ´ ¼n¥ ´ °¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ¸É ´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2014 Meat
6.4
Tobacco & alcohol
6.2
Food away from home
5.6
Seasoning
5.6
Prepared food at home
5.5
Energy
2.9
Eggs & milk
2.7
Housing & furnishing
1.8
Rice
1.4
Non alcoholic beverage
1.2
Medical care
1.1
Recreation & Education
0.7
Apparel and footware
0.7
Transport & Commu Veg & fruit
0.3 -2.5
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Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ º°ªnµ n° oµ 뵃 Á¤ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê ħ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ
Latest
India Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jul
7
Russia Ͳ Jul 6.5
Brazil Ͳ Jul 4.9
Philippines Ͳ Jul
4.5
Indonesia Ͳ Jul
4.3
Vietnam Ͳ Aug
4.1
Hong Kong Ͳ Jul 3.4
Japan Ͳ Jul
3.2
Malaysia Ͳ Jul
3.0
Australia Ͳ Q2 2.3
China Ͳ Jul Thailand Ͳ Aug
2.1
US Ͳ Jul
2.0 1.8
Taiwan Ͳ Jul
1.6
South Korea Ͳ Jul
1.2
Singapore Ͳ Jul Euro Area Ͳ Aug
0.3
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç
2013* 8.0
9.6
7.9
8.3
7.4
6.5 6.3 2.5 8.0 7.5 6.9 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.0 2.0 0.1 1.7 1.9 1.3
64
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Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³ ´ ¼ o ¨· ¨ ¨ Á º° «¼ ¥r
´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2014 Livestocks Metal Petroluem products Chemical Mechinery Basic metals Fishing Energy Transport equip Leather & footware Pulp & paper Wood Forestry Forestry Textile Food Electrical equip Other manu goods Crop Rubber & plastic -8.3
4.3 3.6 3.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0
65
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
66
µ¦ ¥µ¥· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ³¨°
´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
De
´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Ån¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100%
95%
94.9%
95.7%
9 95.5%
95.0%
95.0%
90% Jul-13
Source: Bank of Thailand
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13 Nov-13 D
° ´ª
ec-13
M-o-M +0.4%
Y-o-Y +7.3%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q
96.6%
Dec-13
97.8% 96.3%
Jan-14
95.3%
96.2%
Feb-14 Mar-14
98.3%
96.7%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
67
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É ° ® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ n°¥° Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤
´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Ån ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10YE
270
11Y
´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Ån ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч 7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
06YE
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75
11Y
Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ´ nª
´¥Â ¶
0
256
267
YE
12YE
13YE
2.26%
2.16%
12YE
13YE
281
285
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3
´¥Â ¶
5%
YE
2.26%
2.29%
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 68
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´ nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É ¦³ ´ ¼
´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ц ѝь Ѹѧ юѨ ѝч
15.8% 14.9% 13.3%
1
16.1% 14.8%
14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2004
2005
2006
Source: Bank of Thailand
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
¤ ¹Ê Ä Á º° ¤·.¥.¨³¥´ º°ªnµ°¥¼nÄ
¤q ¬¶Ë  ¹¯ 16.8%
16.2%
15.7%
16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%
2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%
2014
15.2% 15.0%
2012
2013
14.8%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· Á¨È o°¥ ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤ Ë ·Êà n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 1/8/2014
3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil
10.0
Pakistan
10.0 9.7
Russia
8.6
India
8.1
Indonesia 6.0
Vietnam 4.7
China
3.8
Malaysia
2.8
Australia
2.4
South Korea
1.9
Thailand
1.4
Philippines Taiwan
0.9
Hong Kong
0.4
Singapore
0.3
US
0.2
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
· ¨ Ä ³ ¸ÄÉ ¦³Á «Å ¥Á È ¨
=
Expected 2014 inflation*
Real interest rates
6.3
3.7 8.3
1.7
6.5
3.2 9.6
-1.0
8.0 7.5
0.1 -1.5
2.7
2.0
2.0
1.8
2.4
0.4
1.7
0.7
2.0
-0.1
2.5
-1.1
0.1
0.8 6.9 1.9
-1.6
2.0
-1.8
1.3 0.7
-1.1 -0.6
70
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸ SET ¦´ ´ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê Á º° nµ µ · ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ 4.9% 3.9%
3.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0
D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14
Source: SET, The Economist
E
° 4% µ µ¦ ¨´ ¤µ ° ´ ¨ » ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2013 ц њѤьъѨѷ 29/8/2014 25.5%
India (BSE) Indonesia (JSX)
20.8%
Thailand (SET)
20.5% 11.8%
Pakistan (KSE)
10.2%
Taiwan (TWI)
9.4%
US (NAScomp)
8.2%
US (S&P 500)
6.9%
HK (Hang Seng) Singapore (STI)
5.5%
Australia (All Ord.)
5.5% 4.4%
China (SSEA) US (DJIA)
3.3%
S Korea (KOSPI)
3.2%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
2.3%
France (CAC 40)
2.3% 1.2%
UK (FTSE 100) Malaysia (KLSE)
0.3%
Germany (DAX)
0.2%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
-0.4%
Japan (Nikkei 225) -4.6%
71
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦
´¥Â ¶ Ä
´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n
¬ ·¤¥¢´
• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
72
µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ ¨
´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹¯Ê  ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч
1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
¨ ¨ Ä ¸ 2013
-0.3% -0.7%
%
-0.9% -2.0% -2.3%
-2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY 73
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
7 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2014 »¨ ¦³¤µ  ®¤º É ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ
¥´¤¥³ 1,109
º§ ¥²£´
1,241
0
-1,109
1,751
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1
1,484
110
-75 -364
-1,280
¥´¤ m´¤
-1,849
-1,825
-1
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
Â¥n¨ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° °¥¼n ¹ 5
º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ,902
2,078
2,153
100.0
50.0
0.0
-50.0
-28 -412
-271 -100.0
2014
2013
-150.0
-200.0
1,930 -2,489
-2,424
-250.0
-300.0
1FY 12FY 13FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
74
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
»¨ ° ¦³¤µ · ¨ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ¦³¤µ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ¬ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110
0
88
8
-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174
-3
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
° ¸ εĮo »¨Á · µ »¨¼ ªnµ »¨
-28 -75
-41 -74
-96
-236 -266
-271
364 -401
-412 -466
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
'14/7mo
75
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Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨
´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Euro Area US China Malaysia Brazil Vietnam India -7.0
Pakistan Japan
Source: The Economist
-7.8
¦³¤µ ° Å ¥¥´ º°ªnµÅ¤n¼
È 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -2.2 -2.5 -2.9 -2.9 -3.7 -3.8 -4.7 -4.9
76
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2014 ´¥q 4.5a – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0
5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 4.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
3.0
2.0
Direct Government debt
1.0
0.0 2010 10%
2011
2012
2013
Jun-14
8%
8%
7%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Ext as
4 ´¥q 4.5b – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
25% 20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2010
ternal debt percent of total
2011
2012
2013
Jun-14
77
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å ħ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2013 (юіѣєѥцдѥіцҙ) 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania
22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
¸É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·
26
ta
48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia
59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8
Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
78
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015
• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ
• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ
ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-
дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ
ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013
Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.
79
»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Á · »¨Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦
´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ
31.3 24.1
5.3 1.9
1.2
-5.0 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
13FY
14/7mo
° ¸ µ µ¦Á · »¨ µ¦ oµ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B) 32.6
29.8 17.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
14.0 6.0
6.4
12FY
13FY
-7.5
-9.1
12FY
13FY
14/7mo
º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶
+
-10.7
-12.9
-6.1
-19.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
14/7mo
´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤ º ç² ©´£ §´  §¹Ê¯ ¬º ¶ 21.3 6.7
2.2
-2.3
-2.9 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
-6.0 14/7mo
80
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2
1
Taiwan Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Q2
6.3%
South Korea Ͳ Jul
6.0% 5.3%
Vietnam Ͳ 2013 Russia Ͳ Q2
2.9%
Philippines Ͳ Mar
2.7%
Euro Area Ͳ Jun
2.6%
Thailand Ͳ Q2
2.5%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
2.4% 1.7%
China Ͳ Q2
0.2%
Japan Ͳ Jun Australia Ͳ Q1
-2.0%
Pakistan Ͳ Q2
-2.2%
US Ͳ Q1
-2.5%
India Ͳ Q1
-2.8%
Indonesia Ͳ Q2
-3.5%
Brazil Ͳ Jul
-3.7%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T
ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.9%
56.5
11.8%
hailand and NESDB
64.0 18.7 87.7 9.5 51.5 9.7 297.9 12.5 4.5 163.6 -5.2 -40.9 -3.0 -405.9 -32.4 -26.3 -78.4
81
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ · Ä Å ¦¤µ ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ
37.0%
05YE
38.5%
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
µÂ¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê
E
10YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
%
E
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
38.0%
38.2%
38.2%
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
82
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
à ¦ ¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Å¤nÁ ¨¸¥É ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
13%
16%
87%
84%
10YE
11YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
20%
18%
18%
80%
82%
82%
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
¥  ¨ Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.11b – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£¥²¤²Â©§´ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term
50%
50%
10YE
45%
44%
43%
43%
55%
56%
57%
57%
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
83
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
ªµ¤µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «
´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²©m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѤѸ ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћіѣѕѣѝь
418% 370% 340% 312%
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
279%
279%
13YE
14/1Q
° Å ¥¥´ Ťn nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨
´¥q 5.12b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© ´¥ Ï´¥² ·Ë . m¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯
7.6%
4.7% 4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
13FY
14/1Q
3.4%
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
84
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Á · ε¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥
´¥q 5.13a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²©m´ ¥²Â ª* ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ
154.1 55.9
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
2009
´¥q 5.13b – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²©m´ ¥²Â ª лѼѥьњьѯчѪѠьъѨѝ ѷ ѥєѥіщѲннҖ ѥѼ іѣзҕѥдѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѳч Җ**
13.8 9.1 5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
2009
Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¨³¥´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
192.0
2013
Jul-14
1
9
8
9
2010
12.6 10.8
2010
2011
рѥ currency forward contracts
9.9
2012
9.1
2013
10.0
Jul-14
85
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Á · µ Â È nµ ¹Ê n°Á º°É Á È Á º° ¸É 7 ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100
105.0
Baht appreciates
104.0
103.0
102.0
MͲoͲM
+0.8%
101.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
+1.2%
Baht depreciates Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
99.0
98.0 Aug-14
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
· n° ´
0
0
´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§  §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 29/8/2014 IDR Ͳ 2.9481
8.4
JPY Ͳ 31.0961
6.1
CNY Ͳ 5.2628
1.1
0
EUR Ͳ 42.4113
0.9
0
USD Ͳ 32.0961
0.4
TWD Ͳ 1.0734
0.2
VND Ͳ 0.0015
0.0
0
0
SGD Ͳ 25.8264
-1.7
MXN Ͳ 2.4527
-1.7
PHP Ͳ 0.7452
-1.8
MYR Ͳ 10.2909
-4.0
AUD Ͳ 30.1602
-4.0
GBP Ͳ 53.3311
-6.1
INR Ͳ 0.5647 -8.1 KRW Ͳ 0.0316 -8.2 Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates 86
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com