140831 emag thai split

Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 31st issue: กันยายน 2557

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน

• • • • •

จีดีพีไตรมาสสอง ฟื้ นตัว ความเชื่อมัน่ ปรับตัวดีขนึ้ วิกฤตภาคการผลิต ปั ญหาเรื่องนักท่องเที่ยว และดัชนีศก.อื่นๆอย่างรอบด้าน ภาษาไทย

Cover story

THAILAND’S MANUFACTURING 7 Revealing Charts About Its Declining Trend

สรุปภาวะเศรษฐกิจไทย ไตรมาสที่สอง ISSN: 2286‐6132

MONTHLY ECONOMIC

Current State of the Thai Economy, Visually Explained

CONTENTS All Aspects of the Economy Updating Every Month • • • • • • • • • • • • •

GDP structure Historical GDP growth Latest GDP growth drivers Production Indices Consumption and Investment Indices Confidence Indices (Consumers, Businesses) Consensus growth projections

Per capita income Share of income by group Income distribution by region Poverty rate by region Unemployment rate trend Gross Provincial Product • • • • •

Policy Interest rates Bank’s loan and NPL Bank’s capital Stock market performance Inflation (CPI, PPI)

• Government budget balance • Composition of public debt • Budget balance projection

• • • • • • •

Balance of payment, Current Account Trade balance Export/Import trend External debt International reserves Foreign direct investment Tourism

VISUAL GRAPHIC Leveraging charts to explain economic indicators Our charts give readers insights by identifying the key drivers of change

Summary of key points for each chapter

Plenty of good economic forecasts are fee, we pick the best ones and chart them

INTERACTIVES Create your own perspectives

This interactive global map and chart comparing historical GDP growth of any set of countries around the world is just one of our many interactive charts to let you create your own perspectives.

Find out export situation by each market at your fingertip.

24/7 ACCESS Read it online from any device

REGISTER AT www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 10 ASEAN Economies 11 Reports 1 Access for 1 Year  All for

US$ 1,000

 ·Ê¤© ³ Â¥´

­§´¤©¶ · ·Ê ²Æ n ¥²Ä¤ q ´ Â¥´

Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Charting Thailand’s Economy чѼѥѯьѧьдѥіѱчѕэіѧќѤънѥіҙшѯєзѯдѠіҙлѼѥдѤч

лчъѣѯэѨѕьѯјеъѨѷ 0135555002491 ъѨѠ ѷ ѕѬ:ҕ 19 ўєѬҕ 11, щььјѼѥјѬддѥ шѼѥэјјѼѥјѬддѥ ѠѼѥѯѓѠјѼѥјѬддѥ юъѫєыѥьѨ 12150 Ѥ ъҙ: +662 987 0919, ѱъіѝѥі: +662 987 0917, ѱъіћё Email: admin@chartingthailandeconomy.com

´ Å ¥¥ ´ ¶ ´¥

ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь,

ѯћіќудѧлчѬѯўєѪѠьњҕѥлѣё ҖьлѥдлѫчшѼѥѷ ѝѫчѳюѰј ҖњўјѤклѥдшѤњѯјелѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ь Ѫѷ єѤѷьъѤкѸ лѥдѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓздѶ ѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкѠѠдєѥ зњѥєѯнѠ юіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѠѕҕѥкѳідѶчю Ѩ Ѥ рўѥеѠкѯћіќудѧліѣѕѣѕѥњѕѤкзкѠѕѬҕ Cover story еѠкѯіѥѲьмэѤэьѨл Ѹ ѣёѥъҕѥьѳючѬѓѥњдѥіцҙщчщѠѕеѠк ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієдѥіяјѧшеѠкѳъѕ ъѨь ѷ ѤэдѤьліѧкѵдѶєѰ Ѩ ьњѱь Җє шҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кдѤьєѥщѩк 24 ѯчѪѠьѰј Җњ лѫчьѨщ Ѹ Ѡ Ѫ ѯюѶ ьюѤ рўѥѲўрҕўјњкъѨш ѷ ҖѠк Ѥ ѝњҕ ьѝѬкєѥдѲьлѨчё ѳч ҖіѤэдѥіѰд Җѳе ѯёіѥѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієьѤь Ѹ єѨѝч Ѩ Ѱ Ѩ јѣ єѨяјшҕѠѯћіќудѧлѲьѝњҕ ьѠѪь ѷ ѵѠѕѬє ҕ ѥд яєўњѤкњҕѥъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьлѣѳч Җюіѣѱѕньҙлѥдњѧыд Ѩ ѥіеѠкѯіѥ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьмэѤэ ўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

5

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

THAILAND MANUFAC

7 Revealing Charts About Its De

D’S CTURING

eclining Trend

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

n

Manufacturing has and butter for the

Manufacturing share of GDP Percentage 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%

0.0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

been the bread Thai economy

03 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

o

Manufacturing is Export

Export by product group Percent of total export in Baht term (custom basis)

100% = ᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

᪛ 6.9

᪛ 4.2

Others

6.9

6.2

5.6

5.8

Agriculture

8.0

8.7

10.6

7.9

4.0 8.0

4.0 7.9

Manufacturing

85.1

85.1

83.7

86.2

88.0

88.1

9FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/7MO

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

s Thailand’s

(Trillion)

Top 10 Manufacturing export % of total export Electronics

14.2

Automotive

14.1

Agro products

12.0

Machinery

8.5

PetroͲchemical

5.9

Electrical

5.6

Petroleum Metal Chemicals Apparels

4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

p

After recovering from th Manufacturing has been trend

Manufacturing Production Index Annual average Year 2000 is the base month, seasonally adjusted 250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Oct-07

Jul-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

Oct-06

Jul-06

Apr-06

Jan-06

0.00

he 2011 flood crisis, on 24-month declining

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

24-month Declining trend

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

2011 Flood crisis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

q

The declining trend hap ALL industries Change in MPI by sector Seasonally adjusted, May 2012 vs July 2014, percentage Electronic Basic Mat Wood products Rubber&Plastic Tobacco Electrical Precision instruments Textiles Paper Metal products Chemical Mineral Leather Apparel Total MPI Office automate Petroleum Furniture Machineries Food & Bev Vehicles Transport Equip

-13.6 -19.6% -20.1% -21.2% -21.8% -22.1% -26.3% -34.5%

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

ppens to most but NOT

11.4% 11.3% 10.2% 9.9% 8.4% 7.3% 5.1% 4.3% 3.3% -1.1% -2.8% -3.3% -6.7% -8.9%

6%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

r

It’s NOT the Wo

Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Jun China Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Vietnam Ͳ Aug Taiwan Ͳ Jul Australia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Jul India Ͳ Jun South Korea Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Russia Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jun Euro Area Ͳ Jun Japan Ͳ Jul Thailand Ͳ Jul Brazil Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist

1 0.3 0.0 -0.9 -5.2 -6.9

orld Economy 13.3 9.0 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.0 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.1

1.6

Thailand’s MPI growth has been consistently lagging other economies

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

s

It’s the country’s competitiveness

Source: World Economic Forum

s deteriorating

• Declining competitiveness ranking for Thailand since 2007 • Big improvement in competitiveness ranking for Indonesia and Philippines recently

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

t

Thailand’s at the Innovate or Die

STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT Stage 1: Factor-driven (38 economies)

Characteristics

Main Factors

Transition from Stage 1 to Stage 2 (20 economies)

Sta Efficien (31 ec

• Mainly factor-driven • Compete based on primarily low-skilled labor and natural resources • Low productivity reflected in low wages

• Becomes • Productivi and wage • Compete efficiency process

1. Public and Private institutions 2. Infrastructure 3. Macroeconomic environment 4. Health and primary education

5. Higher e training 6. Goods m 7. Labor m 8. Financia develop 9. Technol 10.Market s

Source: World Economic Forum

e crossroad:

age 2: ncy-driven conomies)

Transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3 (22 economies)

Stage 3: Innovation-driven (37 economies)

more competitive ity will increase s will rise by increasing in production

• Wages will have risen by so much • Must compete by producing new and different goods through new technologies or business models

education and

11.Business sophistication 12.Innovation

market efficiency market efficiency al market ment ogical readiness size

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

บทสรุ ปผู ้บริหาร การเติบโต

ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ к ѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰјѣдѥіјчјкеѠк дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзіѤу ѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш ѝњҕ ьѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзк ѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю ѲьецѣъѨя ѷ јяјѧш ѓѥзѯдќшіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨлѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯіѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњ ѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ Ѱє Җњҕѥдѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥдшюъ.лѣ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѱшҕєј Ѭ зҕѥеѠкѱзікдѥіјкъѫь BOI дѶјчјк ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙ ѝњҕ ьѲўрҕѯшѧэѱшјчјкѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ Ѳь 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш 8% ѲьецѣъѨѷ ѯшѧэѱшшѧчјэѲьіѬюѯкѧьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Ѱѝчкщѩкѝщѥьдѥіцҙдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдъѨѕ ѷ Ѥкѳєҕч Ѩ еѩь Ѹ ьѤд ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥшѧчјэъѤкѸ ѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѰјѣчѠјјѥіҙ лѥддѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥ ѷ њѕѤкьҕѥѯюѶ ьўҕњкѯёіѥѣѕѠчдѥіѯе ҖѥєѥъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њ њѤшщѫчэ ѧ ъѨј ѷ чјк ч ҖѥььѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ јчјк 10% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь Җѥьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѯь Җьдіѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѠѤшіѥ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк ѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ ҖьѯћіќудѧліѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕ Ѫѷ єѤѷьъѤкѸ ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзюіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зњѥєѯнѠ ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

การจ้างงานและการกระจายรายได้

ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэ ѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 103 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч Җєѥддњҕѥзь ѯњѨѕчьѥєѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ь Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤк ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013 ѯіѶњъѼѥѲў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє

เสถียรภาพทางเศรษฐกิจ

ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% ѰшҕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠь Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікшѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җ ыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ.ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјк дњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѱшҕ Ѥ шіѥѕ ѕѤкѳєҕѠь ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨеь ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫјдѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶк зҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

14

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

16

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

50

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

57

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

63

19 25 34 41 44 47

53

67 73 80

15

Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¢Ê Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 7.1% 6.3% 5.3%

CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5%

-2.3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

¢º ´ªÃ ¥Á · à Šo 0.4% µ nª

7.8% 6.5%

2.9%

0.4%

0.1% -0.5%

3%

09 2010 2011 2012 2013

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

16

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ³¨° ´ª ° £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¥´ Á È ¸­É ° εÉ

´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 0.4

GDP

6.1

Financial

5.3

Transport 4.0

PublicAdmin

3.4

Utilities Agriculture

2.7

Education

2.6 1.5

Private HH

0.9

Health&Social

0.3

Trading -0.7

RealEstate

-1.2

Fishing Manufacture

-1.6

Mining

-1.7 -2.6

Other social Construction

-3.2

Hotel&Res-4.2

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

­nª ­Îµ ´ ¸ É ÎµÄ®o µ¦Á · Ã Ä Å ¦¤µ­

4

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 0.4

GDP

0.5

Transport 0.3

Financial

0.2

Agriculture Utilities

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Education

0.1

Trading

0.0

Health&Social

0.0

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

0.0

RealEstate

0.0

Mining

0.0

Other social

-0.1

Construction

-0.1 -0.2

Hotel&Res Manufacture

-0.6

17

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ ¨ ° µ¦ εÁ oµ¤¸­nª ¦³ » o µ¦Á ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

G

1.9

X (goods)

1.5

GDP

0.4

M (services)

0.2

C

0.2

I (capital)

-6.9

X (services)

-8.4

M (goods) I

-10.8 -20.4

Note: (*) C = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь, I = дѥіјкъѫь ѰэҕкѯюѶ ь I (capital) = дѥіѝѣѝєъѫь Ѱјѣ I (inve ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕѳч ҖлѥддѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ G = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзіѤу, X = дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѝь ѷ њ

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡¤¸ µ ¸­É » Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

M (goods)

5.7

X (goods)

0.8

GDP

0.4

G

0.2

C

0.1

Discrpncy

0.1

M (services)

0.0

X (services)

-1.3

I (capital) I (Inventory)

-1.7 -3.6

ѧ з ҖѥзкѯўјѪѠ entory) = дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкеѠкѝь ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѳюѯъѨѕ њ), M = дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѝь ѷ њшюъ.)

18

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

19

¨ ¨· £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¥´ ® ´ªÄ Á

´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

2.7%

194.2 174.6 152.1

182.9

161.1

170.0

177.6

138.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

° . .

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

200.0

2013

181.6

175.7

150.0

2014

M-o-M

100.0

-2.2%

Y-o-Y

50.0

-5.2%

0.0

2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

20

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . °» ­µ® ¦¦¤­nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, д.з. 2014 Electronic

17.6

Precision instru

17.3 13.6

Wood products Leather

9.2

Basic Mat

9.1

Rubber&Plastic

8.9 5.8

Metal products

3.1

Office automate

1.0

Paper Chemical

-2.3

Machineries

-3.4

Textiles

-3.4

Apparel

-4.6

Food & Bev

-4.9

Mineral

-5.2 -6.7

Furniture

-9.8

Electrical

-13.3

Tobacco Petroleum

-19.7

Transport Equip

-23.8

Vehicles

-24.2

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

¨· ¨ ¨ °¥nµ ¤µ µ Á º° n° ® oµ ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014 5.6 2.3 0.9 -0.9 -6.0 2.8 -1.8 -3.0 -0.5 0.8 -2.6 1.6 -1.4 -5.4 2.6 0.2 7.6 -21.2 -3.7 -12.9 -5.4

21

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· à ¥¦ª¤¨ ¨ µ ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

Seasonally adjusted Normal

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Jul-14

µ¤Â ªÃ o¤Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, д.з. 2014 Rubber&Plastic Wood products Electrical Textiles Chemical Basic Mat Metal products Furniture Office automate Leather Electronic Food & Bev Precision instru Mineral Paper Vehicles Transport Equip Petroleum Machineries Tobacco Apparel

86% 84% 81% 75% 74% 73% 71% 71% 65% 64% 63% 60% 59% 58% 51% 45% 44% 42% 41% 34% 29%

22

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» ­µ® ¦¦¤ Á«¦¬ · ­Îµ ´ ° è ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Philippines Ͳ Jun China Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Vietnam Ͳ Aug Taiwan Ͳ Jul Australia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Jul India Ͳ Jun South Korea Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Russia Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jun

0

Euro Area Ͳ Jun -0.9

Japan Ͳ Jul -5.2

Thailand Ͳ Jul Brazil Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist

-6.9

¤ ° Å ¥ 뵃 Á º° ¸­É » Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´

13.3 9.0 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.0 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.1 1.6 0.3

0.0

23

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . ¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦ ¦´ Á¡·¤É

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´  « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

3.0% 122.5

100.0

105.9

113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0 Y-o-Y

128.4 126.6

+4.3% 200.0 M-o-M

-11.5% 150.0

2014 2013 100.0

50.0

0.0

2012 2013

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

24

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

25

Ä Á º° . . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ¦³Á Ê Á ¸¥ª ´ ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

2.5%

117.8

126.1 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2

139.2

127.2

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

º° ¹Ê µ ´Ê Á º° n° ® oµÂ¨³ nª

147.0 147.5

12-Avg 13-Avg

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 150.0

149.0

148.0

2013 147.0

2014 146.0

145.0

144.0

Y-o-Y

M-o-M

+0.2%

+0.9%

143.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

26

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ ³¨° ´ªÄ ®¨µ¥ oµ Ä nª ¸ É ¥µ ¡µ® ³ ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 NGV (kg.)* LPG (litre)*

1

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

0

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

0

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

0

Diesel (litre)

0

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

-6.4 -18.9

Motocycle (Unit) -32.4

Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)

-46.5

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê à ¥Á ¡µ³¥° µ¦ ºÊ ° ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014 3.9

-0.7 0.5

1.1

5.7

0.9 -1.1

0.8

2.8

0.5 -0.1

0.1

3.7 6.7 0.7 -4.3

27

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Á° ¥´ ¨ ¨ °¥nµ n°Á º°É

´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

4.9% 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0

193.5

183.9 161.2

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 260.0 M-o-M

255.0

-0.4%

250.0 Y-o-Y

240.8 240.1

12-Avg 13-Avg

-3.4% 245.0

2013

240.0 235.0 230.0

2014 225.0 220.0 215.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

28

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¥° µ¥¦ ¥ rÁ¡º°É µ¦¡µ · ¥rÅ o¦ ´ ¨

´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

1.8

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

1.7

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

Domestic commercial car -31.9 sales (unit)

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-1.1

-5.9

¦³ ¤µ ¸É­» Ä ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014

-0.4

-0.2

-0.8

-0.5

-0.7

29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É Á º° 50

´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547

4,853 3,861

07FY

Source: BOT

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

0% Ä nª 6 Á º° ¦ ° ¸

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 14,000

12,807

13FY

12,000

2013 10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2014 2,000

0

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ­ ¨ ¨ 12%

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

648

396 351 236

09FY

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY

­· · ø °Å°Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê

.¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

525

298 261

13FY

2013/7M

2014/7M

31

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ ¸°­´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥r­nª Ä® n® ´ªÄ nª

´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ­´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 6 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2014

-1.2

Condo unit registered

-8.3

Constr. Area in municipal

New housing unit

Value of land transaction -16.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-12.6

¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ­´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, єѧ.ѕ. 2014

-9.7

-14.0

-34.1

17.6

32

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

33

»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ

´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´ нњҕ к 5 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ , ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 5,000

4,000

3,000

2 2,000

2

-4.9%

+8.4%

1,000

0

-1,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjust (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¨ ¨ ¨³Á · µ ¸°É n° nµ

2013

´¥q 5.03b – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ¯§§´¥q¬­¥³ ± нњҕ к 5 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ , ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 140 120 100 80

2014 60

-0.4%

-12.5%

40 20 0 -20 -40

Export

tments and exchange rate conversion and exchange rate conversion

–

Import

=

Trade balance

34

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦­n °° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ ° ­· oµ­n °° ­nª Ä® nà ¥Á ¡µ³Á ¦º°É ´ ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 Total export ReͲexports Other export Machinery PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Jewellery Electrical Automotive Footware Furniture Optical instru Apparels Agriculture Electronics Fishery Toiletries Forestry Agro products Chemicals Petroleum -0.1 Photo instru -11.1 Metal -11.9 Aircrafts -13.6 Mining-33.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

8.4 >100.0 59.1 19.2 18.1 16.8 13.6 13.2 11.1 10.6 9.7 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 7.2 5.4 4.6 3.3 0.7

¸ à ¥Å o°µ ·­ r µ µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ¦Â¨³¥µ ¥ r ´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Automotive Machinery Electronics PetroͲchemical Other export Electrical Agriculture Other manufacturing Agro products Jewellery Apparels ReͲexports Optical instru Fishery Toiletries Furniture Footware Chemicals Forestry Petroleum Photo instru Aircrafts Mining Metal

8.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6

35

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦­n °° Ä ¦¼ Á · µ Á · Ã Ä » ¨µ ¨³°µÁ ¸¥ ¨´ ¤¸ µ¦Á · Ã ÎµÉ ­» ´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч 100% =

᪛ 6.9 (Trilli

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

Middle East

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

EU

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

Japan

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

12.2

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

17.4

18.1

16.7

18.4

18.1

East Asia exͲJapan

21.0

21.0

21.2

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

NAFTA Rest of the world

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê  n ¨µ Á°Á ¸¥

´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014

ion) 16.9%

EU Middle East

13.8%

11.7%

NAFTA

Japan

8.0%

Rest of the world

6.5%

East Asia ex Japan

6.5%

ASEAN

5.7%

36

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ εÁ oµ¨ ¨ 5% Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ °ºÉ ¸¨É ¨ ¤µ ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014

-4.9

Total import

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

4

Consumer goods

2.

Capital goods

0.9

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

0.7

Others

-47.2

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

° ¸ ¸Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ­· oµ

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

-4.9

Total import

4.5

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

.7

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

0.2

9

Consumer goods

0.2

7

Capital goods

0.2

0.9

Others-6.4

37

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª¨ ¨ 10% Ä nª 7

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

10.6%

19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8

11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY Source: Department of Tourism

Á º° ¦ ° ¸

³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 30.0

26.7 25.0

22.4

Y 12FY 13FY

2013 20.0

15.0

10.0

2014 5.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

38

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ ¨µªÂ¨³¦´­Á ¸¥Á oµ¤µÁ¡·¤É ´¥q 5.19a

Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© à m ´£¬³ ´ ¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.3 6.0

28.7

15.6 5.3

27.9

14.7

13.8

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.3

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.0

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

11.8 4.4

23.6

60.2

13FY

¤ ¹Ê ¤µ ¸­É » Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 5.19b

10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â ª ·Ê£ · Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ ·Ê¬º £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·Êçn© нњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014, ёѤьзіѤкѸ 121.6

Laos 69.9

Russia 28.0

France

22.5

United Kingdom Cambodia

13.8

Italy

9.0

Myanmar

7.8

Finland

7.5

Brazil

5.6

Switzerland

5.5

39

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

40

° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ´ª ¸É 2% Á n Á ·¤Ä Á

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë Ĥ ´¤ .

2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Aug-14

Sep-13

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max Min Sep-13 Note: (*) Bangkok Inter Bank Offer Rate

Source: Bank of Thailand

2.50%

0.00% Aug-14

º° ­. .

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ BIBOR*

Sep-13

2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Aug-14

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Sep-13

0.00% Aug-14

41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³¤µ ¦´ ²Á¦·¤É ¼ Á · n µ¥Å o¤µ ¹Ê

´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2014

0

J

F

M

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

A

M

J

2013

J

A

S

O

N

D

42

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

43

»¦ · ¨³£µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¤° è Ä Â n¦ ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better

50

46.5

49.4 44.3

48.6

48.0

49.6

Worse

0 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

¦oµ¥¨ ¨ ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£** 200

Better

100

85.7

84.7

84.0

85.1

88.4

89.7

Worse

0 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° è Ä Â n¦µo ¥¨ ¨ Ä Á º°

´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ Overall

100

O

100

Better

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Jan-14

Mar-1

(*) มีค่าอยู ่ระหว่าง 0-100 ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่สูงกว่า 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆจะดีขนึ้ หรืออยู ่ในระดับดี ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่ในระดับ 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง หรือทรงตัวอยู ่ในร ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่ในตํา่ กว่า 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆจะแย่ลงหรืออยู ่ในระดับไม่ดี

Source: Ministry of Commerce

. .

On job

On future income

100

Better 50 Worse

0 4

May-14

Jul-14

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

ระดับปานกลาง

45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

46

­£µ¡´ r² ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50

FPO The Economist poll

3.00 2.50

NESDB

2.00 1.50

BOT 1.00 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

Ã Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¨

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 6.00 5.50

BOT

5.00 4.50

The Economist poll

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Forecast as of, month ending 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2014 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 29/8/2014 7.5

China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Pakistan Indonesia Singapore South Korea Taiwan

6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.4

Australia Hong Kong US Thailand Japan Euro Area Brazil Russia

Source: The Economist

2.0 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.2

¦ rªnµ ³Á · à 1.9% ¹É º°ªnµ 뵃 ¸­É » Ä ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 29/8/2014 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.5 5.6 4.1 6.0 4.4 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.0 4.5 1.2 1.6 1.8 0.7 48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

49

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ 뵃 ¨ ªnµ 1% °¸ ¦´Ê ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

0.68

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

Ä Á º° . .

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1.40

1.20

2014 1.00

0.80

2013

0.60

0.66

0.72

12-Avg 13-Avg

0.40

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ 뵃 ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jun

1.0 2.0 2.8

Hong Kong Ͳ Jul

3.3

South Korea Ͳ Jul

3.4

Vietnam Ͳ 2013 Japan Ͳ Jul

3.6 3.8

Taiwan Ͳ Jul

4.0

China Ͳ Q2

4.1

Brazil Ͳ Apr Russia Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ 2013 Australia Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2013 Euro Area Ͳ Jul Source: The Economist

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

4.9 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.4 7.0 8.8 11.5

51

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

52

 ªÃ o¤ µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oà ¥¦ª¤ ¸

´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê* 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

¹Ê  nÄ ¤. ¨´ Â¥n¨

North East North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

53

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© à m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê  n ÈŤn¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 54

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « ε¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â­§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nŠħ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥  ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

2 26.

25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨Îʵ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, §m´¬º

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

55

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

56

Î µ ª ¨³­´ ­nª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ´¥q 2.04a

´¥q 2.04b

¬n ©´£¤´

Ï´ © »n¤´

эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь

ј Җѥьзь

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legend color:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB

¨ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ Ä ¤. ´¥q 2.04c

¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

North East

South

'03

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

57

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Šħ

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

6

Lao PDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

South Africa China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

¤¸­ ´ ­nª ¥µ ­¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

58

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ Áª¸¥ µ¤Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµ­µ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ­³© 2013 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

13 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110

à ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥  n¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ

36,770

( ) = World rank 186,950

France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,…

Brunei Darussalam…

Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)

42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270

59

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

 n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É  ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ­³© Ï´ © à PPP 2013 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼ Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)

Source: The World Bank

68

66,

66, 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630

¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power ѪѸ , чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ ѥьѥлоѠ

88,170 76,850

8,090

,520

,390

( ) = World rank France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation…

23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 TimorͲLeste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760

60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê oµ ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥Â¨³ µ¦­Îµ¦ª ¨nµ­» Ä ¸ 2013 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

23,236 14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

2011

25,403

2013

´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

17,403

2011

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

19,259

2013

³® ¸Ê εĮo¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê Á¡·¤É ­¼ ¹Ê Ä ´¥q 2.10c – ­ ·Ë¬¶  §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ 159,492 104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,900

2011

2013

´¥q 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ­ ·Ë §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2011

2.2

2013

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

61

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

62

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Å ¨ ¨  nÁ · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ Á¡·¤É n° oµ 뵃 ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.00%

2.50%

Head line 2.00%

Core* 1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00% Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

¹Ê Ä Á º° ­. .  n Ê ´ ¼n¥ ´ °¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ¸É ´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2014 Meat

6.4

Tobacco & alcohol

6.2

Food away from home

5.6

Seasoning

5.6

Prepared food at home

5.5

Energy

2.9

Eggs & milk

2.7

Housing & furnishing

1.8

Rice

1.4

Non alcoholic beverage

1.2

Medical care

1.1

Recreation & Education

0.7

Apparel and footware

0.7

Transport & Commu Veg & fruit

0.3 -2.5

63

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ º°ªnµ n° oµ 뵃 Á¤ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê ħ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jul

7

Russia Ͳ Jul 6.5

Brazil Ͳ Jul 4.9

Philippines Ͳ Jul

4.5

Indonesia Ͳ Jul

4.3

Vietnam Ͳ Aug

4.1

Hong Kong Ͳ Jul 3.4

Japan Ͳ Jul

3.2

Malaysia Ͳ Jul

3.0

Australia Ͳ Q2 2.3

China Ͳ Jul Thailand Ͳ Aug

2.1

US Ͳ Jul

2.0 1.8

Taiwan Ͳ Jul

1.6

South Korea Ͳ Jul

1.2

Singapore Ͳ Jul Euro Area Ͳ Aug

0.3

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç

2013* 8.0

9.6

7.9

8.3

7.4

6.5 6.3 2.5 8.0 7.5 6.9 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.0 2.0 0.1 1.7 1.9 1.3

64

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³ ´ ¼ o ¨· ¨ ¨ Á º° «¼ ¥r

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2014 Livestocks Metal Petroluem products Chemical Mechinery Basic metals Fishing Energy Transport equip Leather & footware Pulp & paper Wood Forestry Forestry Textile Food Electrical equip Other manu goods Crop Rubber & plastic -8.3

4.3 3.6 3.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0

65

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

66

µ¦ ¥µ¥­· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ³¨°

´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

De

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Å­n¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100%

95%

94.9%

95.7%

9 95.5%

95.0%

95.0%

90% Jul-13

Source: Bank of Thailand

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13 Nov-13 D

° ´ª

ec-13

M-o-M +0.4%

Y-o-Y +7.3%

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q

96.6%

Dec-13

97.8% 96.3%

Jan-14

95.3%

96.2%

Feb-14 Mar-14

98.3%

96.7%

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ n°¥° Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤

´¥q 3.03a –­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10YE

270

11Y

´¥q 3.03b –­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч 7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

06YE

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

08YE

09YE

10YE

2.75

11Y

Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ­´ ­nª

´¥Â ¶

0

256

267

YE

12YE

13YE

2.26%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

281

285

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3

´¥Â ¶

5%

YE

2.26%

2.29%

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­´ ­nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É ¦³ ´ ­¼

´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ц ѝь Ѹѧ юѨ ѝч

15.8% 14.9% 13.3%

1

16.1% 14.8%

14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2004

2005

2006

Source: Bank of Thailand

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

¤ ¹Ê Ä Á º° ¤·.¥.¨³¥´ º°ªnµ°¥¼nÄ

¤q ¬¶Ë  ¹¯ 16.8%

16.2%

15.7%

16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%

2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%

2014

15.2% 15.0%

2012

2013

14.8%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· Á¨È o°¥ ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤ Ë ·Êà n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 1/8/2014

3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil

10.0

Pakistan

10.0 9.7

Russia

8.6

India

8.1

Indonesia 6.0

Vietnam 4.7

China

3.8

Malaysia

2.8

Australia

2.4

South Korea

1.9

Thailand

1.4

Philippines Taiwan

0.9

Hong Kong

0.4

Singapore

0.3

US

0.2

Euro Area

0.2

Japan

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

൞

· ¨ Ä ³ ¸ÄÉ ¦³Á «Å ¥Á È ¨

=

Expected 2014 inflation*

Real interest rates

6.3

3.7 8.3

1.7

6.5

3.2 9.6

-1.0

8.0 7.5

0.1 -1.5

2.7

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.4

0.4

1.7

0.7

2.0

-0.1

2.5

-1.1

0.1

0.8 6.9 1.9

-1.6

2.0

-1.8

1.3 0.7

-1.1 -0.6

70

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° ­. . ´ ¸ SET ¦´ ´ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê Á º° nµ µ · ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ 4.9% 3.9%

3.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1%

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0

D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14

Source: SET, The Economist

E

° 4% µ µ¦ ¨´ ¤µ ° ´ ¨ » ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2013 ц њѤьъѨѷ 29/8/2014 25.5%

India (BSE) Indonesia (JSX)

20.8%

Thailand (SET)

20.5% 11.8%

Pakistan (KSE)

10.2%

Taiwan (TWI)

9.4%

US (NAScomp)

8.2%

US (S&P 500)

6.9%

HK (Hang Seng) Singapore (STI)

5.5%

Australia (All Ord.)

5.5% 4.4%

China (SSEA) US (DJIA)

3.3%

S Korea (KOSPI)

3.2%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

2.3%

France (CAC 40)

2.3% 1.2%

UK (FTSE 100) Malaysia (KLSE)

0.3%

Germany (DAX)

0.2%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

-0.4%

Japan (Nikkei 225) -4.6%

71

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

72

µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ ¨

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹¯Ê  ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч

1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%

04FY

05FY

06FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

07FY

08FY

¨ ¨ Ä ¸ 2013

-0.3% -0.7%

%

-0.9% -2.0% -2.3%

-2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY 73

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

7 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2014 »¨ ¦³¤µ  ®¤º É ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³ 1,109

º§ ¥²£´

1,241

0

-1,109

1,751

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1

1,484

110

-75 -364

-1,280

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,849

-1,825

-1

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Â¥n¨ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° °¥¼n ¹ 5

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ,902

2,078

2,153

100.0

50.0

0.0

-50.0

-28 -412

-271 -100.0

2014

2013

-150.0

-200.0

1,930 -2,489

-2,424

-250.0

-300.0

1FY 12FY 13FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

74

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ ° ¦³¤µ · ¨ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ¦³¤µ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ 110

0

88

8

-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174

-3

04FY

05FY

06FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

07FY

08FY

° ¸ εĮo »¨Á · ­ µ »¨­¼ ªnµ »¨

-28 -75

-41 -74

-96

-236 -266

-271

364 -401

-412 -466

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

'14/7mo

75

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Euro Area US China Malaysia Brazil Vietnam India -7.0

Pakistan Japan

Source: The Economist

-7.8

¦³¤µ ° Å ¥¥´ º°ªnµÅ¤n­¼

È 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -2.2 -2.5 -2.9 -2.9 -3.7 -3.8 -4.7 -4.9

76

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ­µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ­¼ ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2014 ´¥q 4.5a – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 4.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

3.0

2.0

Direct Government debt

1.0

0.0 2010 10%

2011

2012

2013

Jun-14

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as

4 ´¥q 4.5b – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

25% 20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

5% 0%

2010

ternal debt percent of total

2011

2012

2013

Jun-14

77

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ­µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å ħ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2013 (юіѣєѥцдѥіцҙ) 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania

22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat

¸­É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·

26

ta

48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia

59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

78

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньѯі • Ѳьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧл ѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱ • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 5.5% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкдњҕѥ 1% ѠѨд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэш • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 2.1% Ѱшҕѯкѧьѯђ ѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 7 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ 5 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш єўчшѤњшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кшҕѠѳю іѧє ѷ ђѪѸ ьшѤњѰшҕдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњ дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ јдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

дзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѥъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэ ђѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ ѯюѶ ь 1.83% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ьўь Җѥ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшјчјкѰъэѯюѶ ьћѬьѕҙ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјкѯјѶдь ҖѠѕ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 7 ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

79

»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Á · »¨Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦

´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ

31.3 24.1

5.3 1.9

1.2

-5.0 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

13FY

14/7mo

° ¸ µ µ¦Á · »¨ µ¦ oµ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B) 32.6

29.8 17.0

09FY

10FY

11FY

14.0 6.0

6.4

12FY

13FY

-7.5

-9.1

12FY

13FY

14/7mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶

+

-10.7

-12.9

-6.1

-19.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

14/7mo

´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤ º ç² ©´£ §´  §¹Ê¯ ¬º ¶ 21.3 6.7

2.2

-2.3

-2.9 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

-6.0 14/7mo

80

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ­³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2

1

Taiwan Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Q2

6.3%

South Korea Ͳ Jul

6.0% 5.3%

Vietnam Ͳ 2013 Russia Ͳ Q2

2.9%

Philippines Ͳ Mar

2.7%

Euro Area Ͳ Jun

2.6%

Thailand Ͳ Q2

2.5%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q1

2.4% 1.7%

China Ͳ Q2

0.2%

Japan Ͳ Jun Australia Ͳ Q1

-2.0%

Pakistan Ͳ Q2

-2.2%

US Ͳ Q1

-2.5%

India Ͳ Q1

-2.8%

Indonesia Ͳ Q2

-3.5%

Brazil Ͳ Jul

-3.7%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡­¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.9%

56.5

11.8%

hailand and NESDB

64.0 18.7 87.7 9.5 51.5 9.7 297.9 12.5 4.5 163.6 -5.2 -40.9 -3.0 -405.9 -32.4 -26.3 -78.4

81

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ · Ä Å ¦¤µ ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

37.0%

05YE

38.5%

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

35.4%

07YE

µ­Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê

E

10YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

%

E

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/1Q

38.0%

38.2%

38.2%

12YE

13YE

14/1Q

82

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

à ¦ ­¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Å¤nÁ ¨¸¥É ´¥q 5.11a – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ­ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

13%

16%

87%

84%

10YE

11YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

20%

18%

18%

80%

82%

82%

12YE

13YE

14/1Q

¥  ¨ Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.11b – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£¥²¤²Â©§´­ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term

50%

50%

10YE

45%

44%

43%

43%

55%

56%

57%

57%

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/1Q

83

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤­µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѤѸ ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћіѣѕѣѝь

418% 370% 340% 312%

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

279%

279%

13YE

14/1Q

° Å ¥¥´ Ťn nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

´¥q 5.12b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© ´¥ Ï´¥²­ ·Ë . m¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯

7.6%

4.7% 4.2%

4.0%

3.9%

13FY

14/1Q

3.4%

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

84

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · ­Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥

´¥q 5.13a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª* ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

154.1 55.9

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

2009

´¥q 5.13b – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª лѼѥьњьѯчѪѠьъѨѝ ѷ ѥєѥіщѲннҖ ѥѼ іѣзҕѥдѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѳч Җ**

13.8 9.1 5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

2009

Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¨³¥´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

190.2

192.0

2013

Jul-14

1

9

8

9

2010

12.6 10.8

2010

2011

рѥ currency forward contracts

9.9

2012

9.1

2013

10.0

Jul-14

85

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · µ Â È nµ ¹Ê n°Á º°É Á È Á º° ¸É 7 ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

105.0

Baht appreciates

104.0

103.0

102.0

MͲoͲM

+0.8%

101.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

+1.2%

Baht depreciates Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

99.0

98.0 Aug-14

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

· n° ´

0

0

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§  §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 29/8/2014 IDR Ͳ 2.9481

8.4

JPY Ͳ 31.0961

6.1

CNY Ͳ 5.2628

1.1

0

EUR Ͳ 42.4113

0.9

0

USD Ͳ 32.0961

0.4

TWD Ͳ 1.0734

0.2

VND Ͳ 0.0015

0.0

0

0

SGD Ͳ 25.8264

-1.7

MXN Ͳ 2.4527

-1.7

PHP Ͳ 0.7452

-1.8

MYR Ͳ 10.2909

-4.0

AUD Ͳ 30.1602

-4.0

GBP Ͳ 53.3311

-6.1

INR Ͳ 0.5647 -8.1 KRW Ͳ 0.0316 -8.2 Baht depreciates

Baht appreciates 86

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com