140930 emag eng

MONTHLY ECONOMIC

October 2014 issue

Feature: Assessing Thailand’s FDI situation

Executive summary Growth Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14. On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth. On the production side, contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth.

In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago . On the other hand, Agriculture production increased impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline. BOI net application dropped.

Export grew 7% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 11% in the first 8 months.

Looking forward, Monetary policies are pro‐ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%.

Government spending was recovered with the new government.

Confidence in private sector was mixed.

Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐ 2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015.

Employment and wealth distribution Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies.

Thailand’s per capita income was at USD 5,370 in 2013, ranked 103rd in the world. An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese. Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok. Poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade.

Stability In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago. Producer Price Index dropped from a year ago, creating a deflation.

Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted for the first time in three years.

Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is almost 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.

Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

3

Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth in 2Q14

Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.8% 7.1% 6.5%

6.3% 5.3%

CAGR* 2002‐2013 = 4.1%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0%

2.9%

2.5%

0.4%

0.1% -0.5%

-2.3% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

GDP grew 0.4% in 2Q14 despite contraction in Manufacturing

Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 2Q14

Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 2Q14

Year‐on‐Year percentage change

Contributions to total Real GDP growth

GDP

GDP

0.4

Financial

6.1

Transport

5.3

PublicAdmin

4.0

Utilities

3.4

0.4

Transport

0.5

Financial

0.3

Agriculture

0.2

Utilities

0.1 0.1

Agriculture

2.7

PublicAdmin

Education

2.6

Education

0.1

Trading

0.0

Private HH

1.5

Health&Social

0.9

Trading

0.3

RealEstate

-0.7

Fishing

-1.2

Health&Social

0.0

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

0.0

RealEstate

0.0

Manufacture

-1.6

Mining

0.0

Mining

-1.7

Other social

-0.1

Construction

-0.1

Other social Construction

-2.6 -3.2

Hotel&Res-4.2 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Hotel&Res Manufacture

-0.2 -0.6

5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall 2Q14 GDP growth Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 2Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 2Q14 Year‐on‐Year percentage change

Contributions to total Real GDP growth

G

1.9

M (goods)

X (goods)

1.5

X (goods)

5.7 0.8

GDP

0.4

GDP

0.4

M (services)

0.2

G

0.2

C

0.2

C

0.1

Discrpncy

0.1

I (capital)

-6.9

X (services)

-8.4

M (goods) I

-10.8 -20.4

M (services)

0.0

X (services)

-1.3

I (capital) I (Inventory)

-1.7 -3.6

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

7

Manufacturing production picked up from last month but was still lower than a year ago Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100)

Monthly Average 250.0

CAGR

2.7% 200.0

2013 194.2 174.6

182.9

161.1

170.0

177.6 181.6 175.7

150.0

2014

152.1 138.6 100.0

M-o-M

+2.6%

Y-o-Y

50.0

-2.7%

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Most sectors had their production decreased substantially from last month Chart 1.12a – Y‐on‐Y change in MPI by sector

Chart 1.12b – M‐on‐M change in MPI by sector

August 2014, percent

August 2014, percent

Office automate

13.5

Electronic

10.0

Wood products

8.3

Precision instru

6.2

Basic Mat

3.9

Petroleum

18.1

Office automate

17.2

Paper

6.0

Apparel

5.9

Transport Equip

4.2

Leather

2.1

Basic Mat

3.9

Electrical

1.8

Chemical

3.7

Paper

1.7

Furniture

Chemical

1.3

Leather

-0.7

Textiles

-1.1

Rubber&Plastic

0.1

0.0

Metal products

-1.9

Mineral

-2.4

Textiles

-2.4

Wood products

-2.6

Tobacco

-3.1

Tobacco

-2.7

Mineral

-4.1

Rubber&Plastic

-4.3

Petroleum

-4.5

Food & Bev

-4.5

Machineries

-5.0

Precision instru

Food & Bev

-5.8

Metal products

Apparel

-6.1

Electrical

Transport Equip

-15.0

Vehicles

Furniture

-26.1

Electronic

Vehicles

-26.7

Machineries

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

-5.4 -6.1 -7.4 -8.4 -10.0 -11.0

9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Capacity utilization rate almost unchanged in August

Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate

Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector

Percent

August 2014, percent

100% 90% 80% 70%

Seasonally adjusted

60% Normal

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Rubber&Plastic Wood products Electronic Furniture Electrical Basic Mat Textiles Mineral Chemical Metal products Food & Bev Office automate Leather Precision instru Paper Vehicles Machineries Transport Equip Petroleum Tobacco Apparel

88% 77% 75% 75% 74% 70% 69% 68% 68% 64% 60% 60% 60% 58% 53% 48% 44% 43% 42% 34% 28%

10 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Thailand’s among the economies whose MPI dropped from a year ago Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines ‐ Jul

9.6

Taiwan ‐ Aug

7.0

China ‐ Aug

6.9

Vietnam ‐ Sep

6.7

Australia ‐ Q2

4.6

Singapore ‐ Aug

4.2

US ‐ Aug

4.1

Hong Kong ‐ Q2

2.2

Euro Area ‐ Jul

2.2

Indonesia ‐ Jul

1.4

Pakistan ‐ Jul

1.2

Malaysia ‐ Jul

0.5

India ‐ Jul

0.5

Russia ‐ Aug

0.1

Thailand ‐ Aug

-2.7

South Korea ‐ Aug

-2.8

Japan ‐ Aug

-2.9

Brazil ‐ Jul

-3.5

11 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Agriculture production still grew healthily from a year ago

Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)

Monthly Average 250.0

CAGR Y-o-Y

3.0% 122.5 105.9

128.4 126.6

+2.1% 200.0

113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2

M-o-M

+12.8%

100.0 150.0

2014 2013 100.0

50.0

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

12 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

13

Private consumption was down in August

Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption Index* (2000=100)

Monthly Average 150.0

CAGR

2.5%

117.8

126.1 121.9 124.2

130.6

147.0 147.5 134.2

149.0

139.2

127.2

148.0

2013 147.0

146.0

2014 145.0

144.0

Y-o-Y

M-o-M

-0.8%

-0.2%

143.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Vehicle consumption expenditures were the biggest decliners so far this year Chart 1.16a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.16b – M‐on‐M change

First 8 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

August vs July 2014, percent

NGV (kg.)*

3.9

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

1.2

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

1.0

LPG (litre)*

0.7

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

0.6

Diesel (litre)

0.3

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

-6.7

Motocycle (Unit)

-18.0

Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)

-31.1 -45.9

Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

2.2 -2.4 0.1 -2.8 1.3 0.1 -8.4 -3.1 -1.6 3.5

15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Private Investment continues its declining trend in August

Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)

Monthly Average 255.0 M-o-M

-1.2%

250.0

CAGR

4.9%

245.0

Y-o-Y

-5.6%

240.8 240.1 240.0

209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0

193.5

183.9 161.2

235.0

2013

230.0

2014 225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Commercial car sales took the biggest hit so far this year

Chart 1.18a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.18b – M‐on‐M change

First 8 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

August vs July 2014, percent

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

1.2

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

1.2

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

Domestic commercial car -31.0 sales (unit)

Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-0.7

-0.4

-1.4

-5.8

-1.5

-2.2

-0.8

17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

FDI value increased almost by 30% during the first 7 months

Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD

Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000

12,807 12,000

11,331

2013

10,699 10,000

9,112 8,547 8,000

6,000

4,853 4,000

3,861

2014 2,000

0

07FY

08FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

BOI’s net application decreased 9% during the first 8 months of 2014

Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment* Billion Baht 648

525

396 351 316

288

236

09FY

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY

13FY

2013/8M

2014/8M

19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has been declining in recent years Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country group Percent of total

11%

11%

Others

23%

27%

4% 10%

USA ANIEs ASEAN

3% 6% 6%

Europe

17%

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

21% 2% 6% 10%

14% 8% 6%

7%

7% 26%

58%

Japan

44%

49%

54% 35%

10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

11FY

12FY

13FY

2014/8M 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

All key Property indicators have decreased so far in 2014

Chart 1.19a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.19b – M‐on‐M change

First 7 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

July vs June 2014, percent

Condo unit registered

-7.6

Constr. Area in municipal

New housing unit

-48.7

-9.4

30.4

-12.6

Value of land transaction -17.2

32.5

-11.6

21 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

22

Improvement in trade balance is a combination of weaker THB and lower import Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB

Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD

First 8 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht

First 8 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion USD

6,000

200

5,000 150 4,000 2013

3,000

100

2014 -5.7%

+6.6%

-1.4%

-12.7%

2,000 50 1,000 0

0

-1,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

-50

Export

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

–

Import

=

Trade balance

23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Export grew 6.6% in the first 8 months of 2014, thanks mainly to machinery, automotive and electronics Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions First 8 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export Re‐exports Machinery Petro‐chemical Other manufacturing Jewellery Electrical Footware Agriculture Optical instru Automotive Electronics Furniture Apparels Fishery Toiletries Forestry Agro products Chemicals Other export Petroleum -2.5 Photo instru -9.4 Metal -10.7 Aircrafts -13.4 Mining-31.3

Contributions to total export growth

6.6 >100.0 17.0 15.4 15.1 12.1 11.2 11.0 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.5 7.6 7.2 6.5 5.0 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.6

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Total export Machinery Electronics Automotive Petro‐chemical Agriculture Electrical Other manufacturing Agro products Jewellery Apparels Re‐exports Optical instru Fishery Toiletries Furniture Footware Chemicals Forestry Other export Photo instru Petroleum Aircrafts Mining Metal

6.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Positive growth in all export markets so far this year

Chart 5.07a – Export by country

Chart 5.07b – Change in Export

Percent of total export in THB term

In THB term, First 8 months of 2014 vs those of 2013

฿ 5.2

฿ 6.1

฿ 6.7

฿ 7.1

Middle East

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

EU

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

Japan

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

Middle East

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

NAFTA

NAFTA

12.2

17.4

18.1

18.4

18.1

16.7

Rest of the world East Asia ex‐Japan

20.1

20.4

21.0

21.0

100% =

฿ 6.9 (Trillion)

EU

ASEAN

21.3

09FY

23.0

10FY

24.3

11FY

24.6

12FY

14.2%

11.4%

10.5%

Japan 21.2

ASEAN

25.9

East Asia ex Japan

13FY

Rest of the world

6.4%

5.4%

4.3%

3.2%

25 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Import has decreased 5.7% so far in 2014, due mainly to the decrease in Others (mainly vehicle parts) Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions First 8 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent

Total import

Contributions to total import growth

Total import -5.7

-5.7

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

2.6

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

Consumer goods

1.2

Consumer goods

Intermediate ‐ Non fuel

-0.1

Intermediate ‐ Non fuel

Capital goods

-1.6

Capital goods

Others

-45.3

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.4

Others -5.9

26 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Intermediate goods has gained more share this year

Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classification Percent of total import in Baht term ฿ 4.6

฿ 5.9

฿ 7.0

฿ 7.8

฿ 7.7

Others

7.8

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.1

Capital goods

22.3

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.2

100% =

฿ 4.9

(Trillion)

7.6

24.0

Intermediate – Non‐Fuel

43.0

44.0

40.0

37.5

36.0

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

18.6

17.4

18.9

18.9

20.6

22.0

Consumer goods

8.3

7.5

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.4

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/8MO

38.0

27 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Tourist arrivals dropped 11% in the first 8 months of this year compared to the same period last year Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits

Monthly cumulative 30.0

26.7

CAGR

25.0

10.6% 22.4

2013 20.0

19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8

11.7

15.0

14.1

11.5

10.0

10.0

2014 5.0

0.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

28 Source: Department of Tourism

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Laos and Russia have been the two highest growing market for tourists so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Percent of total

First 8 month of 2014 vs 2013, Thousands

Rest of world

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.8

Americas

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

Europe

28.7

27.9

26.5

25.3

11.8

Laos

4.4

Russia

23.6

85.6 49.8

Cambodia

31.1

France

24.1

United Kingdom

18.7

Myanmar

East Asia

50.0

09FY

51.2

10FY

53.8

11FY

56.0

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

60.2

13FY

Italy

12.6 9.1

Brazil

5.9

Finland

5.7

Switzerland

4.9

29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

30

Policy interest rate unchanged in September

Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate

Oct-13

Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Sep-14

Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate*

2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Sep-14

Oct-13

Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* 10.00%

Max

7.50%

10.00% 7.50%

Min Max

5.00%

5.00%

2.50%

2.50%

Min Oct-13

0.00% Sep-14

Oct-13

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.00% Sep-14

31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Government spending recovered

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2000

2013 1500

1000

2014

500

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

32 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

33

Recently improving business confidence seemed to end in August

Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100

Chart 1.21b – Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200

Better

Better

49.4 50

48.6 44.3

48.0

49.6

49.1 100

Worse

84.7

84.0

85.1

88.4

89.7

88.7

Worse

0

0 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14 Aug-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

34 Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Consumers are optimistic on future income

Chart 1.20a – Consumer Confidence Index Overall

100

On job

100

Better

Better

50

Better

50 Worse

50 Worse

0

Worse

0 Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

0 Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month Source: Ministry of Commerce

On future income

100

Aug-14

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

36

BOT lowered its growth projection for next year

Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections

For 2014, Annual percentage change

For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00

6.00

5.50

5.50

5.00

BOT

4.50

5.00 4.50

The Economist poll

4.00

4.00

3.50

3.50

3.00

3.00

2.50

2.50

2.00

2.00

1.50

1.50

NESDB FPO

The Economist poll

BOT 1.00 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Forecast as of, month ending

1.00 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Forecast as of, month ending 37

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Low growth prospect for Thailand in 2014

Chart 1.04a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.04b – Real GDP growth projections

2014, Annual % change, as of Sep 30th

2015, Annual % change, as of Sep 30th 2014

China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Pakistan Indonesia South Korea 3.6 Singapore 3.5 Taiwan 3.5 Australia 3.0 Hong Kong 2.4 US 2.0 Thailand 1.9 Japan 1.3 Euro Area 0.9 Brazil 0.4 Russia 0.4

2014 7.5 6.4 6.0 6.0 6.0

5.4 5.2

China Vietnam India Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Pakistan Singapore South Korea Taiwan US Australia Hong Kong Brazil Euro Area Japan Russia

7.0 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 38

Source: The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

39

Unemployment rate dropped significantly in August

Chart 2.08 – Unemployment rate Percent

Monthly Average 1.40

1.20

2.07

2014 1.83

1.00

1.51

1.49 1.38

0.80

2013

1.38 0.60

1.04

0.68

0.66

0.72

0.40

0.20

0.00 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

J F M A M J J A S O N D

40 Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comparing to other leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand ‐ Aug Singapore ‐ Q2 Malaysia ‐ Jul

0.7 2.0 2.8

Hong Kong ‐ Aug

3.3

South Korea ‐ Aug

3.3

Japan ‐ Aug

3.5

Vietnam ‐ 2013

3.6

Taiwan ‐ Aug China ‐ Q2 Russia ‐ Aug Brazil ‐ Aug Indonesia ‐ Q1

3.9 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.7

US ‐ Aug

6.1

Australia ‐ Aug

6.1

Pakistan ‐ 2013

6.2

Philippines ‐ Q3 India ‐ 2013 Euro Area ‐ Aug

6.7 8.8 11.5

41 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

42

Overall improvement in income distribution in Thailand, except for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 – Thailand’s GINI coefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South North East

0.45

North Central Bangkok

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution of income.

It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income).

Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution.

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

43

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Slight improvement of income distribution when compared the top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 – Quintile by income Percent of total income

Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

19.7

19.9

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

18.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.3

7.3 4.0

7.7

Bottom 20%

7.1 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 44

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Data from World Bank suggests that income equality problem in Thailand is not as bad as in Malaysia or China Chart 2.03 – Income equality in the world Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% to the share of the poorest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

29.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

46

Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade Chart 2.04a

Chart 2.04b

Chart 2.04c

Thailand Poverty Line

Number of poor people

Percent of Poor people

Baht/ month/ person

Million

Percentage of total population

3,500

25

60%

3,000

50% 20

2,500 40% 15

2,000

30% 1,500

10 20%

1,000 5

10%

500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legend color:

'11

Overall

0% '01

'03

Bangkok

'05

'07

Central

'09

North

'11

'01

'03

North East

South

'05

'07

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the missing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

Source: NESDB

'09

'11

47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Many countries in Asia and especially ASEAN, still have majority of their populations earning less than $2.00 a day Chart 2.05 – Poverty in the world, selected countries Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), Latest Congo, Dem. Rep.

95.2

Madagascar

92.6

Nigeria

84.5

Ethiopia

77.6

Bangladesh

76.5

Timor‐Leste

72.8

India

68.7

Lao PDR

66.0

Pakistan

60.2

Nepal

57.3

Cambodia

53.3

Indonesia

46.1

Vietnam

43.4

Philippines

41.5

South Africa

31.3

Egypt, Arab Rep.

15.4

Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7

Brazil

10.8

Iran, Islamic Rep.

8.0

Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

China

29.8

Poland

0.2

Bhutan

29.8

Slovak Republic

0.1

Sri Lanka

29.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese Chart 2.06 – GNI per capita, selected countries

( ) = World rank

2013 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

186,950 136,770 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110

France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,…

Brunei Darussalam…

Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)

42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270 49

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Using Purchasing Power Parity, Thailand’s rank improved to 82nd, with higher GNI per capita than China Chart 2.07 – GNI per capita, selected countries

( ) = World rank

2013 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)

Source: The World Bank

88,170 76,850 68,090 66,520 66,390 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630

France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation…

23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 Timor‐Leste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760 50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Increasing trend in household income, expenditure and debt, but debt service year has reduced from the recent peak in 2004 Chart 2.10a – Monthly income per household

Chart 2.10c – Debt per household

Average, Baht

Average, Baht 23,236 17,787

18,660

2006

2007

25,403 134,900 104,571

14,963

2004

159,492

2011

2013

Chart 2.10b – Monthly expenditure per household

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

2011

2013

Chart 2.10d – Debt service year*

Average, Baht 3.3 2.8 17,403 12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

2011

19,259

2.3 1.9

2013

2004

2006

2007

2011

2.2

2013

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

51

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

52

Both Headline and Core inflation dropped in September

Chart 3.07a – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI

Chart 3.07b – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI by product

Percent

September 2014, percent

3.00%

Meat

5.6

Food away from home

5.5

Prepared food at home

2.50%

Head line 2.00%

5.1

Seasoning

5.0

Tobacco & alcohol

4.9

Housing & furnishing

Core*

1.4

Rice

1.3

Non alcoholic beverage

1.3

Medical care

1.2

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00% Apr-14

May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Apparel and footware

0.8

Recreation & Education

0.7

Energy

0.6

Veg & fruit

0.6

Eggs & milk Transport & Commu

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

0.0 -0.5

53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Thailand’s inflation is rather on the low side compared to other economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change

Latest

2014*

India ‐ Aug

7.8

Russia ‐ Aug

7.6

Pakistan ‐ Aug

6.1

4.9

Indonesia ‐ Aug

4.0

Hong Kong ‐ Aug

3.9

Vietnam ‐ Sep

2.1 8.2 4.5

3.6

Japan ‐ Aug

3.3

Malaysia ‐ Aug

3.3

Australia ‐ Q2

6.3 0.9 1.9

3.0

Taiwan ‐ Aug

2.1

China ‐ Aug

2.0

Thailand ‐ Sep

1.8

US ‐ Aug

1.7

South Korea ‐ Aug

1.5

Singapore ‐ Aug

Source: The Economist

8.5

6.5

Philippines ‐ Aug

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

6.5

7.0

Brazil ‐ Aug

Euro Area ‐ Sep

9.5

2.4 1.6 -0.8 2.6 1.5 1.5

0.9 0.3

2.0 1.1

54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Deflation at the producer level

Chart 3.09a – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI

Chart 3.09b – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI by product

Percent

September 2014, percent

3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Livestocks Metal Mechinery Basic metals Chemical Transport equip Wood Forestry Forestry Food Textile Pulp & paper Leather & footware Petroluem products Fishing Electrical equip Energy Other manu goods Crop Rubber & plastic -12.3

5.7 3.4 2.1 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -2.0 -3.4 -4.5

55 Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

56

Bank’s loan decrease for the first time in three years Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,000 10,800 M-o-M

10,600

-0.1%

10,400 Y-o-Y

10,200

+7.0%

10,000 Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratio Percent 100% 97.8% 95.7%

96.6% 95.5%

95.0%

96.3%

95.0%

96.2%

98.3%

97.7%

96.7%

95.3%

95%

90% Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14

Feb-14 Mar-14

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

57 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Gross NPL continued to increase in 14/Q2 in both absolute value and percent of total loan Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Billion Baht

445

458

401

380 317

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

270

256

267

11YE

12YE

13YE

281

285

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3

Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Percentage of Total Loans

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

2.26%

2.29%

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 58

Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Banks’ capital ratio increased slightly in July

Chart 3.04 – Capital ratio of all commercial banks* % of risk assets, at year end

Month End 16.8%

15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

16.6%

15.7%

14.8%

16.4%

14.0%

13.9% 13.3%

16.2%

12.4%

16.0%

2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%

2014

15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Thailand’s real interest rate is slightly positive Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Sep 30th 2014

3M risk‐free interest rates Brazil

10.0

Pakistan

10.0

Russia

10.0

India

3.9 8.5

3.5 9.5

1.8

Philippines

1.7 0.9

Hong Kong

0.4

Singapore

0.3

US

0.2

Japan

0.1

Euro Area

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.4

2.3

Thailand

-0.3

2.6

2.8

South Korea

-0.1

6.3

3.8

Australia

-1.0

8.2

4.5

Malaysia

1.5

6.5

6.0

China

Real interest rates

6.1

8.1

Vietnam

Source: The Economist

=

Expected 2014 inflation*

8.5

Indonesia

Taiwan

─

0.4

1.5

0.8

1.6

0.2

2.1

-0.4

-0.8

1.7 4.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.1

-4.1 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0

60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

SET went up 1.5% in September amid foreign fund inflow Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET index

Chart 3.06c – Change since Dec 31st 2013

Percent change from prior month, at month end

Percent, as of Sep 24th 2014 India (BSE)

4.9%

26.3%

Thailand (SET)

3.9%

22.6%

Indonesia (JSX)

2.8%

21.1%

Pakistan (KSE) 1.5%

1.1%

19.1%

China (SSEA)

10.8%

US (NAScomp)

0.1%

9.1%

US (S&P 500) Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 0.0 -10.0

8.1%

Taiwan (TWI)

5.7%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

5.5%

Singapore (STI)

4.0%

US (DJIA)

3.8%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

3.6%

France (CAC 40)

2.7%

HK (Hang Seng)

2.6%

S Korea (KOSPI)

1.2%

-20.0

Germany (DAX)

1.1%

-30.0

Australia (All Ord.)

-40.0

UK (FTSE 100)

-0.6%

Japan (Nikkei 225)

-0.8%

-50.0 D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14

Malaysia (KLSE)

0.4%

-1.4%

61 Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

62

Lower budget and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in 2013

Chart 4.1 – Government budget and cash balance as percentage of nominal GDP Percent Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)

1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1% -0.3%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.1%-1.1%

-0.9%

-1.7% -2.0%

-2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

04FY

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY 63

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is almost 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013 Chart 4.2 – Government budget balance Billion Baht Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 2,078

Revenue 1,109

1,751 1,241

1,390

1,455

1,498

2,153

100.0

1,902 50.0

1,484 0.0

0

-36

Budget balance

110 -174

-75

-100

-50.0

-28

-364

-412

2014

-271 -100.0

2013 -1,109 -1,277

-150.0

-1,280 -1,629

Expenditure

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-200.0

-1,930 -2,489

-2,424

-250.0

-300.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

J F M A M J J A S O N D

64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Non‐budgetary deficit so far in 2014

Chart 4.3 – Government cash balance Billion Baht Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) 110 88

0

8

-28

-36 -45

-42 -74

-75 -96

-100 -96 -144 -174

-236 -266

-271

-364 -401

-412 -466

04FY

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

'14/8mo

65 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Thailand’s budget deficit is expected to be around 2.1% of GDP, slightly lower than Indonesia’s Chart 4.4 – Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP 2014*, percent Hong Kong

0.7

South Korea Singapore

0.6 0.5

Russia Taiwan

0.4 -1.4

Australia Philippines Thailand

-1.5 -1.5 -2.1

Indonesia Euro Area

-2.2 -2.6

US China Malaysia

-2.8 -2.9 -3.5

Brazil Vietnam

-3.9 -4.7

India Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-4.9 -7.0 -7.9

66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2014

Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt

Chart 4.5b – Composition of Public debt

THB Trillion

As percentage of nominal GDP 50%

6.0

45%

5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises

40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35%

4.0

30% Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

3.0

25% 20%

2.0

15%

Direct Government debt

1.0

10%

Direct Government debt

5%

0.0 2010 10%

0%

2011

2012

2013

Jul-14

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2010

External debt as percent of total

2011

2012

2013

Jul-14

67 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Thailand’s public debt is not high compared to international standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est.

1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania

226 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s data

48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia

59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Economic contraction ended with a minimal growth of 0.4% in 2Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, apart from the decrease in Import, the increase in Export contributed the most to the overall growth ‐ On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth • In August, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lower than a year ago • Private consumption was down and Private Investment continued to decline • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in August. Consumers were less pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 1.5%‐2.6% for 2014 and 4.5‐4.8% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate dropped significantly to 0.7% in August. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Except for only Bangkok, poverty headcount and poverty rate have declined over the last decade

Stability

• In September, Headline inflation dropped to 1.75% while Core inflation dropped to 1.73%.

Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago.

• Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity improved slightly as loan contracted.

• Budget balance during the first 8 months of 2014 is 70 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet.

• Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 5‐month in a row in September.

69

Year‐to‐date Balance of Payment surplus, thanks to trade surplus Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6

Chart 5.01 – Balance of Payment decomposition

29.8

Billion USD

17.0

09FY

31.3

10FY

11FY

16.2 6.0

6.4

12FY

13FY

14/8mo

-7.5

-9.1

-8.1

12FY

13FY

14/8mo

Net service income & transfer

24.1

+

-10.7

-12.9 -19.7

5.3 1.4

1.2

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

11FY

Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions

-5.0 09FY

10FY

14/8mo 21.3 6.7

2.2

-2.3

-2.9 09FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

-6.8 14/8mo

70

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge current account surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP*

Last 12 months, USD Billion

Singapore ‐ Q2

19.7%

Taiwan ‐ Q2

56.5

11.8%

Malaysia ‐ Q2

6.0%

South Korea ‐ Aug

5.8%

Vietnam ‐ 2013

5.6%

64.0 18.7 87.8 9.5

Russia ‐ Q2

3.3%

Philippines ‐ Jun

3.0%

9.9

Thailand ‐ Q2

2.6%

12.5

Euro Area ‐ Jul

2.3%

China ‐ Q2

2.0%

Hong Kong ‐ Q2

0.5%

Japan ‐ Jul

0.3%

Pakistan ‐ Q2

-2.1%

Australia ‐ Q2

-2.2%

US ‐ Q2

-2.4%

India ‐ Q2

-2.8%

Indonesia ‐ Q2

-3.5%

Brazil ‐ Aug

-3.6%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

51.5

318.2 164.8 4.4 -7.1 -2.6 -42.8 -389.2 -18.4 -26.3 -78.4

71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

External debt increased slightly in the first half of 2014

Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP

37.0%

05YE

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

38.2%

39.2%

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

72 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Structure of external debt does not change from end of last year

Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown

Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown

Private vs Public

Long‐Term vs Short‐Term

Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

13%

16%

20%

18%

Long term Short term

17%

50%

87%

84%

80%

82%

11YE

12YE

13YE

44%

43%

43%

55%

56%

57%

57%

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

83%

50%

10YE

45%

14/2Q

10YE

73 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Capability to repay external debt deteriorated but not yet a concern as debt service ratio is low and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12a – International reserves

Chart 5.12b – Debt service ratio*

As % of ST external debt

Percent

7.6%

418% 370% 340% 312% 279%

269%

4.7%

4.6% 4.2%

4.0%

3.4%

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/2Q

74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Net International reserves increased slightly so far this year and still considered excessive Chart 5.13a – International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

190.2

191.2

2013

Aug-14

154.1 55.9

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

2009

2010

Chart 5.13b – International reserves as number of months of import** 13.8

12.6 10.8

9.1 5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

2009

2010

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

9.9

2011

2012

9.1

2013

10.0

Aug-14

75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

THB appreciated again in September, making it 5 months in a row

Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Chart 5.17b – Y‐o‐Y change in FX rate*

2007=100

Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Sep 30th 2014 JPY ‐ 29.8871 106.0

Baht appreciates

105.0 104.0 103.0

Jun-14

IDR ‐ 2.8726

1.5

VND ‐ 0.0015

0.0

100.0

TWD ‐ 1.0679

99.0

MXN ‐ 2.4088

98.0

SGD ‐ 25.6609

97.0 Sep-14

CNY ‐ 5.3181

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

3.1

101.0

+2.3% Mar-14

EUR ‐ 41.3681

0.3

Y‐o‐Y

Dec-13

3.4

PHP ‐ 0.7348

+0.9%

Sep-13

AUD ‐ 28.5168

102.0

M‐o‐M

Baht depreciates

8.5

0.0 -0.4 -1.7 -2.1

MYR ‐ 10.0489

-2.4

USD ‐ 32.5161

-3.0

GBP ‐ 52.9263 INR ‐ 0.5629 KRW ‐ 0.0309

-3.5 -4.8 -5.2

Baht depreciates

Baht appreciates 76

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