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Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 32nd issue: ตุลาคม 2557

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน

• • • • •

การบริโภค การลงทุนหดตัว ความเชื่อมัน่ ธุ รกิจถดถอย วิกฤตภาคการผลิต สินเชื่อธนาคารหดตัวในรอบสามปี และดัชนีศก.อื่นๆอย่างรอบด้าน ภาษาไทย

Assessing FDI situation ISSN: 2286‐6132

Charting

MYANMAR’S ECONOMY Myanmar’s Economy Profile Visually Explained

CONTENTS Covering All Aspects of the Economy • • • • •

• • • •

Long‐term growth in Per capita income Historical GDP growth Latest annual GDP growth drivers GDP growth projections

• • • •

• • • • •

Size of the economy Structure of GDP Trade Openness Key trading partners Key production sectors

Stage of development of the economy Global competitiveness ranking Global competitiveness score comparison Most problematic factors for doing business

Per capita income Poverty / Unemployment rate Income distribution Human Development Index ranking Quality of life

• • • • •

Inflation trend Stability in the Banking sector Fiscal situation Current Account, Int’l reserves situation Exchange rate * Contents in general are updated annually

VISUAL GRAPHIC Leveraging charts to explain economic indicators Our charts give readers both historical and international perspectives of the indicators

Summary of key points for each chapter

Plenty of good economic forecasts are fee, we pick the best ones and chart them

INTERACTIVES Create your own perspectives

This interactive global map and chart comparing historical GDP growth of any set of countries around the world is just one of our many interactive charts to let you create your own perspectives.

Comparing head�to�head of competitive factors between any ASEAN countries is just at your fingertip.

24/7 ACCESS Read it online from any device

REGISTER AT www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 10 ASEAN Economies 11 Flagship Reports 1 Access for 1 Year  All for

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Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

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лѥдъѨч ѷ ѯѬ ўєѪѠьњҕѥѯћіќудѧлѳч Җё ҖьлѥдлѫчшѼѥѷ ѝѫчѳюѰј ҖњьѤь Ѹ јҕѥѝѫчлѥдшѤњ ҕ ѥьѠѕѬъ ѯјеъѨѠ ѷ Ѡдєѥ дјѥѕѯюѶ ьюѤ рўѥњҕѥлѣѰнь ҕ Ѩѷ “д Җь” нѥєѠѨдьѥь ѯёѨѕкѲч дѥіэіѧѱѓзъѨч ѷ ѯѬ ўєѪѠьлѣђѪѸ ьшѤњѳч ҖдѶдјѤэўчшѤњјкѠѨд дѥіјкъѫь Ѥ ѯль ѲьецѣъѨд ьѤь Ѹ ѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјкѠѕҕѥкнч ѷ ѥіяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє ьѤь Ѹ ђѪѸ ьшѤњлѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰшҕѕѤкзкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѫѷ єѤѷьѓѥзыѫідѧлѯіѧє зњѥєѯнѠ ѷ щчщѠѕ Cover story еѠкѯіѥѲьмэѤэьѨл Ѹ ѣёѥъҕѥьѳючѬѝщѥьдѥіцҙдѥіјкъѫь ѱчѕшіклѥдшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ъҕѥєдјѥкзњѥє њѫь ҕ њѥѕъѥкдѥіѯєѪѠкѰјѣіѤуюіѣўѥі ѰјѣеҕѥњдѥіщѠѕъѤёеѠкьѤдјкъѫь лѥдрѨю ѷ ь ѫҕ яєўњѤкњҕѥъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьлѣѳч Җюіѣѱѕньҙлѥдњѧыд Ѩ ѥіеѠкѯіѥ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьмэѤэ ўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

5

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THAILAND’S ASSESSING THE SITUATION IN 5 CHARTS

S FDI

Two main indicators f Direct Investment Foreign Direct Investment defined by BOT Definitions

Comments

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) reflects the lasting interests of non-residents of an economy in a resident entity.

• A direct investor may invest in equity capital, lending to affiliates, or reinvested earnings.

• Investment in equity is treated as a direct investment when the direct investors own 10 per cent or more of the voting shares for an enterprise or the equivalent for an unincorporated enterprise.

• Data is compiled by Bank of Thailand

• Theoretical sound • Exhaustive • A lot of assumptions and subsequent revisions in compiling data

Source: Bank of Thailand, Board of Investment

for Foreign BOI net application value of FDI projects • BOI net application for projects defined as FDI. • Value is derived from total investment of all projects which have foreign equity participation (shown by registered capital amount) of one particular nation or the sum of all foreign registered capital from more than two nations of at least 10%.

• No assumptions in compiling data • Indicative for movement in big FDI projects • Not exhaustive

1

Foreign Direct Investm has increased so far t Monthly cumulative FDI Million USD 14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

2013 2014

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

J

F

M

Source: Bank of Thailand

A

M

J

J

ment in overall this year

2

• A lot of assumptions and subsequent revisions in compiling data • Numbers after the next revision might be totally different • Include a lot of items that are not indicative of “fresh” investment such as retained earning etc.

A

S

O

N

D

But BOI’s FDI value ha

BOI net application of foreign direct investmen Billion Baht

648

525

396 351 236

09FY

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY

13FY

as decreased

3

nt*

• More indicative of “fresh” investment

316

2013/8M

• Value decreased 9% during the first 8 months of 2014 compared to the same period last year 288

2014/8M

• Declining trend started in 2013, likely caused by political uncertainty

Japan, the largest inv shifting away BOI net application of FDI breakdown by Percent of total

11%

Others

23%

USA ANIEs ASEAN

3% 6% 6%

Europe

Japan

27% 2% 7% 8%

17%

7%

44%

49%

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

4% 10% 7% 10%

21

2% 6%

10

7%

58%

54

12FY

13F

vestor, is

4

country group

%

% %

0%

11% 14% 8% 6%

% 26%

4%

FY

35%

2014/8M

• Japan has long been the single largest foreign direct investor for Thailand • Since 2013, Japan’s share of BOI’s FDI value has decreased and the speed is faster in 2014 • Likely caused by political uncertainty and the new “Thailand plus one” policy

EU and USA have potent Japan but can Thailand Change in BOI net application of FDI* First 8 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht

55.5 32.5 0.2 -4.2 -8.6 -15.2 -104.5 Note: (*) double counting projects with more than one nations involved

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

tial to replace lure them in?

5

Europe USA ANIES

• BOI’s FDI value from Europe and USA has increased impressively in the first 8 months of 2014 • Given the size, both have potential to replace the loss of Japan’s FDI

Others China ASEAN Japan

• Problem is can Thailand lure more investment from both given its current political scheme?

บทสรุ ปผู ้บริหาร การเติบโต

ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ к ѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰјѣдѥіјчјкеѠк дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзіѤу ѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш ѝњҕ ьѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзк ѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѲьецѣъѨя ѷ јяјѧш ѓѥзѯдќшіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨлѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньдјѤэєѥўч шѤњ ѝњҕ ьдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю Ѱє Җњҕѥдѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥд шюъ.лѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѱшҕєј Ѭ зҕѥеѠкѱзікдѥіјкъѫь BOI дѶјчјк ѝњҕ ьѓѥз ѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙѝњҕ ьѲўрҕѯшѧэѱшјчјкѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ Ѳь 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш 7% ѲьецѣъѨѷ ѯшѧэѱшшѧчјэѲьіѬюѯкѧьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Ѱѝчкщѩкѝщѥьдѥіцҙдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдъѨѕ ѷ Ѥкѳєҕч Ѩ еѩь Ѹ ьѤд ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥшѧчјэъѤкѸ ѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѰјѣчѠјјѥіҙ лѥддѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥ ѷ чјк ч ҖѥььѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкьҕѥѯюѶ ьўҕњкѯёіѥѣѕѠчдѥіѯе ҖѥєѥъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њ њѤшщѫчэ ѧ ъѨј јчјк 11% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь Җѥьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѯь Җьдіѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѠѤшіѥ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк ѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ ҖьѯћіќудѧліѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕ Ѫѷ єѤѷьъѤкѸ ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰѕҕјкѰшҕч ҖѥьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзюіѤэшѤњчѨеь ѩѸ ѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зњѥєѯнѠ ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчыюъ. юіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьюѨ 2015 ѯўјѪѠ 4.8% ъѼѥѲў ҖдѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ е Ѩ ѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.52.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

การจ้างงานและการกระจายรายได้

ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэ дѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 103 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч Җєѥддњҕѥзь ѯњѨѕчьѥєѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ь Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤк ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013 ѯіѶњъѼѥѲў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь

เสถียรภาพทางเศรษฐกิจ

ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ ѯдѧч ѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікшѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җ ыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з.ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјк дњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѩѸ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨеь ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫјдѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥъѰеѶк зҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

14

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

49

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

56

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

62

17 23 32 40 43 46

52

66 72 79

13

Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¢Ê Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 7.1% 6.3% 5.3%

CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5%

-2.3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

¢º ´ªÃ ¥Á · à Šo 0.4% µ nª

7.8% 6.5%

2.9%

0.4%

0.1% -0.5%

3%

09 2010 2011 2012 2013

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

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µ¦ ³¨° ´ª ° £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¥´ Á È ¸­É ° εÉ

´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 0.4

GDP

6.1

Financial

5.3

Transport 4.0

PublicAdmin

3.4

Utilities Agriculture

2.7

Education

2.6 1.5

Private HH

0.9

Health&Social

0.3

Trading -0.7

RealEstate

-1.2

Fishing Manufacture

-1.6

Mining

-1.7 -2.6

Other social Construction

-3.2

Hotel&Res-4.2

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

­nª ­Îµ ´ ¸ É ÎµÄ®o µ¦Á · Ã Ä Å ¦¤µ­

4

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 0.4

GDP

0.5

Transport 0.3

Financial

0.2

Agriculture Utilities

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Education

0.1

Trading

0.0

Health&Social

0.0

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

0.0

RealEstate

0.0

Mining

0.0

Other social

-0.1

Construction

-0.1 -0.2

Hotel&Res Manufacture

-0.6

15

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µ¦¨ ¨ ° µ¦ εÁ oµ¤¸­nª ¦³ » o µ¦Á ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

G

1.9

X (goods)

1.5

GDP

0.4

M (services)

0.2

C

0.2

I (capital)

-6.9

X (services)

-8.4

M (goods) I

-10.8 -20.4

Note: (*) C = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь, I = дѥіјкъѫь ѰэҕкѯюѶ ь I (capital) = дѥіѝѣѝєъѫь Ѱјѣ I (inve ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕѳч ҖлѥддѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ G = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзіѤу, X = дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѝь ѷ њ

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡¤¸ µ ¸­É » Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q14 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

M (goods)

5.7

X (goods)

0.8

GDP

0.4

G

0.2

C

0.1

Discrpncy

0.1

M (services)

0.0

X (services)

-1.3

I (capital) I (Inventory)

-1.7 -3.6

ѧ з ҖѥзкѯўјѪѠ entory) = дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкеѠкѝь ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѳюѯъѨѕ њ), M = дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѝь ѷ њшюъ.)

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

17

¨ ¨· £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¥´ 뵃 ªnµ ¸ n° ®

´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

2.7%

194.2 174.6 152.1

182.9

161.1

170.0

177.6

138.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

® oµÄ Á º° ­. .

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

200.0

2013

181.6

175.7

150.0

100.0

2014

M-o-M

+2.6%

Y-o-Y

50.0

-2.7%

0.0

2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

18

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Ä Á º° ­. . °» ­µ® ¦¦¤­nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ѝ.з. 2014

13.

Office automate

10.0

Electronic

8.3

Wood products

6.2

Precision instru

3.9

Basic Mat Leather

2.1

Electrical

1.8

Paper

1.7

Chemical

1.3 0.1

Rubber&Plastic Metal products

-1.9

Textiles

-2.4

Tobacco

-3.1

Mineral

-4.1

Petroleum

-4.5

Machineries

-5.0

Food & Bev

-5.8

Apparel

-6.1 -15.0

Transport Equip Furniture

-26.1

Vehicles

-26.7

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

¨· ¨ ¨ °¥nµ ¤µ µ Á º° n° ® oµ ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ѝ.з. 2014 5

Petroleum

18.1

Office automate

17.2

Paper

6.0

Apparel

5.9

Transport Equip

4.2

Basic Mat

3.9

Chemical

3.7 0.0

Furniture Leather

-0.7

Textiles

-1.1

Mineral

-2.4

Wood products

-2.6

Tobacco

-2.7

Rubber&Plastic

-4.3

Food & Bev

-4.5 -5.4

Precision instru

-6.1

Metal products

-7.4

Electrical Vehicles Electronic Machineries

-8.4 -10.0 -11.0

19

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· à ¥¦ª¤ ´ªÄ ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

Seasonally adjusted Normal

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Jul-14

Aug-14

Á º° ­. .

4

´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, ѝ.з. 2014 Rubber&Plastic Wood products Electronic Furniture Electrical Basic Mat Textiles Mineral Chemical Metal products Food & Bev Office automate Leather Precision instru Paper Vehicles Machineries Transport Equip Petroleum Tobacco Apparel

88% 77% 75% 75% 74% 70% 69% 68% 68% 64% 60% 60% 60% 58% 53% 48% 44% 43% 42% 34% 28%

20

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°´ ¦µ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» ­µ® ¦¦¤ Á«¦¬ · ­Îµ ´ ° è ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Philippines Ͳ Jul Taiwan Ͳ Aug China Ͳ Aug Vietnam Ͳ Sep Australia Ͳ Q2 Singapore Ͳ Aug US Ͳ Aug Hong Kong Ͳ Q2 Euro Area Ͳ Jul 1.4

Indonesia Ͳ Jul

1.2

Pakistan Ͳ Jul Malaysia Ͳ Jul

0.5

India Ͳ Jul

0.5 0.1

Russia Ͳ Aug Thailand Ͳ Aug

-2.7

South Korea Ͳ Aug

-2.8

Japan Ͳ Aug

-2.9

Brazil Ͳ Jul Source: The Economist

-3.5

¤ ° Å ¥ 뵃 Á º° ¸­É » Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´

9.6 7.0 6.9 6.7 4.6 4.2 4.1 2.2 2.2

21

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Ä Á º° ­. . ¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦ ¦´ Á¡·¤É

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´  « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

3.0% 122.5

100.0

105.9

113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0 Y-o-Y

128.4 126.6

+2.1% 200.0 M-o-M

+12.8% 150.0

2014 2013 100.0

50.0

0.0

2012 2013

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

22

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­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

23

Ä Á º° ­. . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ¨´ ®

´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

2.5%

117.8

126.1 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2

139.2

127.2

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

´ª¨ °¸ ¦´Ê

147.0 147.5

12-Avg 13-Avg

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 150.0

149.0

148.0

2013 147.0

146.0

2014 145.0

144.0

Y-o-Y

M-o-M

-0.8%

-0.2%

143.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

24

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ ³¨° ´ªÄ ®¨µ¥ oµ Ä nª ¸ É ¥µ ¡µ® ³ ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 NGV (kg.)* HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

1

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

1

LPG (litre)*

0

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

0

Diesel (litre)

0

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

-6.7 -18.0

Motocycle (Unit) -31.1

Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)

-45.9

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê à ¥Á ¡µ³¥° µ¦ ºÊ ° ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ѝ.з. 2014 3.9

2.2 -2.4

1.2

0.1

1.0 -2.8

0.7

1.3

0.6 0.1

0.3 -8.4 -3.1 -1.6

3.5

25

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Á° ¥´ ¨ ¨ °¥nµ n°Á º°É

´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

4.9% 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0

193.5

183.9 161.2

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 255.0 M-o-M

250.0

-1.2%

245.0

Y-o-Y

-5.6%

240.8 240.1

12-Avg 13-Avg

240.0 235.0

2013

230.0

2014 225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

26

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¥° µ¥¦ ¥ rÁ¡º°É µ¦¡µ · ¥rÅ o¦ ´ ¨

´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

1.2

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

1.2

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

Domestic commercial car -31.0 sales (unit)

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-1.4

-5.8

¦³ ¤µ ¸É­» Ä ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ѝ.з. 2014

-0.7

-0.4

-1.5

-2.2

-0.8

27

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É 30% Ä

´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547

4,853 3,861

07FY

Source: BOT

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

nª 7 Á º° ¦ ° ¸

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 14,000

12,807

13FY

12,000

2013 10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2014 2,000

0

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ­ ¨ ¨ 9%

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

648

396 351 236

09FY

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY

­· · ø °Å°Ä nª 8 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê

.¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

525

316

13FY

2013/8M

288

2014/8M

29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¸ É »n Á È ¦³Á « ¸¤É µ¨ » à ¥ ¦ Ä Å ¥ ¨ ¨

´¥q 5.16 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьлѥдєѬјзҕѥјкъѫьъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Others

23%

27%

USA ANIEs ASEAN

3% 6% 6%

2% 7%

Europe

17%

Japan

44%

8%

10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

7%

49%

11FY

¥¤µ ¸­É » ¤oªnµÄ ¸ ¨nµ­» ³¤¸­ ´ ­nª

. ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

11%

11% 4% 10% 7% 10%

21% 2% 6% 10%

14% 8% 6%

7% 26%

58%

54% 35%

12FY

13FY

2014/8M 30

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´ ¸°­´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥r­nª Ä® n® ´ªÄ nª

´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ­´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2014

-7.6

Condo unit registered

-9.4

Constr. Area in municipal

New housing unit

Value of land transaction -17.2

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-12.6

¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ­´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2014

-48.7

30.4

32.5

-11.6

31

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

32

»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ

´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´ нњҕ к 5 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ , ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 6,000

5,000

4,000

2

3,000

2,000

2

-5.7%

+6.6%

1,000

0

-1,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjust (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¨ ¨ ¨³Á · µ ¸°É n° nµ

2013

´¥q 5.03b – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ¯§§´¥q¬­¥³ ± нњҕ к 5 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ , ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 200

150

100

2014

-1.4%

-12.7%

50

0

-50

Export

tments and exchange rate conversion and exchange rate conversion

–

Import

=

Trade balance

33

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦­n °° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä nª 8 Á º° ¦ ° ­· oµ­n °° ­nª Ä® nà ¥Á ¡µ³Á ¦º°É ´ ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 Total export ReͲexports Machinery PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Jewellery Electrical Footware Agriculture Optical instru Automotive Electronics Furniture Apparels Fishery Toiletries Forestry Agro products Chemicals Other export Petroleum -2.5 Photo instru -9.4 Metal -10.7 Aircrafts -13.4 Mining-31.3

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

6.6 >100.0 17.0 15.4 15.1 12.1 11.2 11.0 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.5 7.6 7.2 6.5 5.0 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.6

¸ à ¥Å o°µ ·­ r µ µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ¦Â¨³¥µ ¥ r ´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Machinery Electronics Automotive PetroͲchemical Agriculture Electrical Other manufacturing Agro products Jewellery Apparels ReͲexports Optical instru Fishery Toiletries Furniture Footware Chemicals Forestry Other export Photo instru Petroleum Aircrafts Mining Metal

6.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5

34

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦­n °° Ä ¦¼ Á · µ Á · Ã Ä » ¨µ ¨³°µÁ ¸¥ ¨´ ¤¸ µ¦Á · Ã ÎµÉ ´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч 100% =

ě 6.9 (Trilli

ě 5.2

ě 6.1

ě 6.7

ě 7.1

Middle East

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

EU

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

Japan

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

12.2

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

17.4

18.1

16.7

18.4

18.1

East Asia exͲJapan

21.0

21.0

21.2

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

NAFTA Rest of the world

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê  n ¨µ Á°Á ¸¥

´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014

ion) 14.2%

EU Middle East

11.4%

10.5%

NAFTA

6.4%

Japan

ASEAN East Asia ex Japan Rest of the world

5.4%

4.3%

3.2%

35

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ εÁ oµ¨ ¨ 5.7% Ä nª 8 Á º° ¦ ­· oµ°ºÉ ¸¨É ¨ ¤µ ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014

-5.7

Total import

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

2.

Consumer goods

1.2

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-0.1

Capital goods

-1.6

Others

-45.3

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

Total import -5.7

.6

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

2

Consumer goods

0.5

0.1

0.0

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-0.4

Capital goods

Others -5.9

36

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­· oµ ´Ê ¨µ ¦ª¤ ´Ê ¡¨´ µ ¤¸­ ´ ­nª ­¼ ¤ ´¥q 5.08 – ¬³ ¬m© ´¥ Ï´Â n´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч Ѯ 4.6

Ѯ 5.9

Ѯ 7.0

Others

7.8

10.2

12.4

Capital goods

22.3

20.9

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

43.0

44.0

40.0

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

18.6

17.4

18.9

Consumer goods

8.3

7.5

7.5

09FY

10FY

11FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

21.3

¤µ ¹Ê Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê

0

Ѯ 7.8

Ѯ 7.7

4

11.4

12.1

Y

Ѯ 4.9

(Trillion)

7.6

24.0

24.4

23.2

37.5

36.0

18.9

20.6

22.0

7.8

8.0

8.4

12FY

13FY

14/8MO

38.0

37

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª¨ ¨ 11% Ä nª 8

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

10.6%

19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8

11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY Source: Department of Tourism

Á º° ¦ ° ¸

³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 30.0

26.7 25.0

22.4

Y 12FY 13FY

2013 20.0

15.0

10.0

2014 5.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

38

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ ¨µªÂ¨³¦´­Á ¸¥Á oµ¤µÁ¡·¤É ´¥q 5.19a

Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© à m ´£¬³ ´ ¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.3 6.0

28.7

15.6 5.3

27.9

14.7

13.8

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.3

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.0

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

11.8 4.4

23.6

60.2

13FY

¤ ¹Ê ¤µ ¸­É » Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 5.19b

10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â ª ·Ê£ · Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ ·Ê¬º £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·Êçn© нњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014, ёѤьзіѤкѸ 85.6

Laos 49.8

Russia 31.1

Cambodia

24.1

France

18.7

United Kingdom

12.6

Myanmar Italy

9.1

Brazil

5.9

Finland

5.7

Switzerland

4.9

39

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

40

° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ´ª ¸É 2% Á n Á ·¤Ä Á

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë Ĥ ´¤ .

2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Sep-14

Oct-13

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max Min Oct-13 Note: (*) Bangkok Inter Bank Offer Rate

Source: Bank of Thailand

2.50%

0.00% Sep-14

º° .¥.

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ BIBOR*

Oct-13

2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Sep-14

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤Ë  ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Oct-13

0.00% Sep-14

41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³¤µ ¦´ ²Á¦·¤É ¼ Á · n µ¥Å o¤µ ¹Ê

´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2014

0

J

F

M

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

A

M

J

2013

J

A

S

O

N

D

42

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´¥Â ¶ Ä

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

43

»¦ · ¨³£µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¤° è Ä Â n¦ ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better

50

49.4 44.3

48.6

48.0

49.6

49.1

Worse

0 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14 Aug-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

¦oµ¥¤µ ¹Ê ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£** 200

Better

100

84.7

84.0

85.1

88.4

89.7

88.7

Worse

0 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14 Aug-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° è Ä Â n¦µo ¥¨ ¨ Ä Á º° ­

´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ Overall

100

O

100

Better

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Feb-14

Apr-1

(*) มีค่าอยู ่ระหว่าง 0-100 ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่สูงกว่า 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆจะดีขนึ้ หรืออยู ่ในระดับดี ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่ในระดับ 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง หรือทรงตัวอยู ่ในร ถ้าดัชนีอยู ่ในตํา่ กว่า 50 แสดงว่าผู ้บริโภคมีความเห็นว่าภาวการณ์ด้านนัน้ ๆจะแย่ลงหรืออยู ่ในระดับไม่ดี

Source: Ministry of Commerce

. .

On job

On future income

100

Better 50 Worse

0 4

Jun-14

Aug-14

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

ระดับปานกลาง

45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

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¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

46

. ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · Ã Ä ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50

NESDB FPO

3.00 2.50

The Economist poll

2.00 1.50

BOT 1.00 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

¸ 2015 Á®¨º° 4.8%

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00 5.50

BOT

5.00 4.50

The Economist poll

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Forecast as of, month ending 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2014 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 30/9/2014 7.5

China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Pakistan Indonesia South Korea Singapore Taiwan Australia Hong Kong

6.4 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.2 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.4

US 2.0 Thailand 1.9 Japan 1.3 Euro Area 0.9 Brazil 0.4 Russia 0.4

Source: The Economist

¦ rªnµ ³Á · à 1.9% ¹É º°ªnµ 뵃 ¸­É » Ä ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 30/9/2014 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.4

China Vietnam India Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Pakistan Singapore South Korea

4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0

Taiwan US Australia Hong Kong Brazil Euro Area Japan Russia

2.8 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

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¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

49

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ 뵃 ¨ °¥nµ ¦ª Á¦Èª­¼n 0 ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

0.68

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

0.7% Ä Á º° ­. .

 §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1.40

1.20

2014 1.00

0.80

2013

0.60

0.66

0.72

12-Avg 13-Avg

0.40

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ 뵃 ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Aug Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jul

0.7 2.0 2.8

Hong Kong Ͳ Aug

3.3

South Korea Ͳ Aug

3.3

Japan Ͳ Aug

3.5

Vietnam Ͳ 2013

3.6

Taiwan Ͳ Aug China Ͳ Q2 Russia Ͳ Aug Brazil Ͳ Aug Indonesia Ͳ Q1 US Ͳ Aug Australia Ͳ Aug Pakistan Ͳ 2013 Philippines Ͳ Q3 India Ͳ 2013 Euro Area Ͳ Aug Source: The Economist

3.9 4.1

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

4.8 5.0 5.7 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.7 8.8 11.5

51

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

52

 ªÃ o¤ µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oà ¥¦ª¤ ¸

´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê* 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

¹Ê  nÄ ¤. ¨´ Â¥n¨

North East North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

53

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© à m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê  n ÈŤn¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 54

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « ε¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â­§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nŠħ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥  ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

2 26.

25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨Îʵ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, §m´¬º

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

55

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

56

Î µ ª ¨³­´ ­nª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ´¥q 2.04a

´¥q 2.04b

¬n ©´£¤´

Ï´ © »n¤´

эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь

ј Җѥьзь

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legend color:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB

¨ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ Ä ¤. ´¥q 2.04c

¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

North East

South

'03

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

57

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Šħ

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

6

Lao PDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

South Africa China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

¤¸­ ´ ­nª ¥µ ­¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

58

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ Áª¸¥ µ¤Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµ­µ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ­³© 2013 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

13 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110

à ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥  n¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ

36,770

( ) = World rank 186,950

France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,…

Brunei Darussalam…

Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)

42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270

59

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

 n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É  ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ­³© Ï´ © à PPP 2013 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼ Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)

Source: The World Bank

68

66,

66, 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630

¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power ѪѸ , чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ ѥьѥлоѠ

88,170 76,850

8,090

,520

,390

( ) = World rank France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation…

23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 TimorͲLeste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760

60

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¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê oµ ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥Â¨³ µ¦­Îµ¦ª ¨nµ­» Ä ¸ 2013 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

23,236 14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

2011

25,403

2013

´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯  §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

17,403

2011

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

19,259

2013

³® ¸Ê εĮo¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê Á¡·¤É ­¼ ¹Ê Ä ´¥q 2.10c – ­ ·Ë¬¶  §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ 159,492 104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,900

2011

2013

´¥q 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ­ ·Ë §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2011

2.2

2013

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

61

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­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

62

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Š¨³Á · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ ¨ ¨ ¨ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.00%

2.50%

Head line 2.00%

Core*

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00% Apr-14

May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

³°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ÎµÉ Ä Á º° .¥. ´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, д.ѕ. 2014 Meat

5.6

Food away from home

5.5

Prepared food at home

5.1

Seasoning

5.0

Tobacco & alcohol

4.9

Housing & furnishing

1.4

Rice

1.3

Non alcoholic beverage

1.3

Medical care

1.2

Apparel and footware

0.8

Recreation & Education

0.7

Energy

0.6

Veg & fruit

0.6

Eggs & milk Transport & Commu

0.0 -0.5

63

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Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ º°ªnµ n° oµ 뵃 Á¤ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê ħ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Aug Russia Ͳ Aug

7.0

Pakistan Ͳ Aug

6.5

Brazil Ͳ Aug 4.9

Philippines Ͳ Aug Indonesia Ͳ Aug

4.0

Hong Kong Ͳ Aug

3.9 3.6

Vietnam Ͳ Sep Japan Ͳ Aug

3.3

Malaysia Ͳ Aug

3.3 3.0

Australia Ͳ Q2 Taiwan Ͳ Aug

2.1

China Ͳ Aug

2.0

Thailand Ͳ Sep

1.8

US Ͳ Aug

1.7 1.5

South Korea Ͳ Aug 0.9

Singapore Ͳ Aug Euro Area Ͳ Sep

0.3

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç

2013* 7.8

9.5

7.6

6.5 8.5 6.1 2.1 8.2 4.5 6.3 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.6 -0.8 2.6 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.1

64

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · £µª³Á · º Ä ¦³ ´ ¼ o ¨·

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, д.ѕ. 2014 Livestocks Metal Mechinery Basic metals Chemical Transport equip Wood Forestry Forestry Food Textile Pulp & paper Leather & footware Petroluem products Fishing Electrical equip Energy Other manu goods Crop Rubber & plastic -12.3

5.7 3.4 2.1 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -2.0 -3.4 -4.5

65

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

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¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

66

¥° ­· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r® ´ªÁ È

´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Ja

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Å­n¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100% 95.7%

96.6% 95.5%

95.0%

9

95.0%

95%

90% Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Bank of Thailand

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 J

¦´Ê ¦ Ä ¦° ­µ¤ ¸

an-14

M-o-M

-0.1%

Y-o-Y

+7.0%

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q

96.3%

Jan-14

97.8% 95.3%

96.2%

Feb-14 Mar-14

98.3%

96.7%

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

97.7%

Jul-14

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ n°¥° Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤

´¥q 3.03a –­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10YE

270

11Y

´¥q 3.03b –­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч 7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

06YE

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

08YE

09YE

10YE

2.75

11Y

Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ­´ ­nª

´¥Â ¶

0

256

267

YE

12YE

13YE

2.26%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

281

285

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3

´¥Â ¶

5%

YE

2.26%

2.29%

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­´ ­nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É ¦³ ´ ­¼

´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ц ѝь Ѹѧ юѨ ѝч

15.8% 14.9% 13.3%

1

16.1% 14.8%

14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2004

2005

2006

Source: Bank of Thailand

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

¤ ¹Ê Ä Á º° . .¨³¥´ º°ªnµ°¥¼nÄ

¤q ¬¶Ë  ¹¯ 16.8%

16.2%

15.7%

16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%

2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%

2014

15.2% 15.0%

2012

2013

14.8%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· Á¨È o°¥ ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·¤ Ë ·Êà n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 1/8/2014

3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil

10.0

Pakistan

10.0

Russia

10.0 8.5

India

8.1

Indonesia 6.0

Vietnam 4.5

China

3.8

Malaysia

2.8

Australia

2.3

South Korea Thailand

1.8

Philippines

1.7

Taiwan

0.9

Hong Kong

0.4

Singapore

0.3

US

0.2

Japan

0.1

Euro Area

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

൞

-0.

· ¨ Ä ³ ¸ÄÉ ¦³Á «Å ¥Á È ¨

=

Expected 2014 inflation*

Real interest rates

6.1

3.9 8.5

1.5

6.5

3.5 9.5

-1.0

8.2

-0.1

6.3

-0.3

2.6

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.4

0.4

1.5

0.8

1.6

0.2

2.1

-0.4

8

1.7 4.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.1

-4.1 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0

70

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° .¥. ´ ¸ SET ¦´ ´ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 1. ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ 4.9% 3.9% 2.8% 1.5%

1.1% 0.1%

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0

D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14

Source: SET, The Economist

E

5% µ µ¦ ¨´ ¤µ ° ´ ¨ » nµ µ · ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2013 ц њѤьъѨѷ 24/9/2014 26.3%

India (BSE)

22.6%

Thailand (SET)

21.1%

Indonesia (JSX)

19.1%

Pakistan (KSE) 10.8%

China (SSEA)

9.1%

US (NAScomp)

8.1%

US (S&P 500) Taiwan (TWI)

5.7%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

5.5%

Singapore (STI)

4.0%

US (DJIA)

3.8%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

3.6%

France (CAC 40)

2.7%

HK (Hang Seng)

2.6%

S Korea (KOSPI)

1.2%

Germany (DAX)

1.1% 0.4%

Australia (All Ord.) UK (FTSE 100)

-0.6%

Japan (Nikkei 225)

-0.8%

Malaysia (KLSE)

-1.4%

71

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

72

µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ ¨

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹¯Ê  ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч

1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%

04FY

05FY

06FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

07FY

08FY

¨ ¨ Ä ¸ 2013

-0.3% -0.7%

%

-0.9% -2.0% -2.3%

-2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY 73

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

8 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2014 »¨ ¦³¤µ  Á º° 7 ®¤º É ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³ 1,109

º§ ¥²£´

1,241

0

-1,109

1,751

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1

1,484

110

-75 -364

-1,280

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,849

-1,825

-1

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Â¥n¨ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° °¥¼n ¹

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ,902

2,078

2,153

100.0

50.0

0.0

-50.0

-28 -412

-271 -100.0

2014

2013

-150.0

-200.0

1,930 -2,489

-2,424

-250.0

-300.0

1FY 12FY 13FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

74

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ ° ¦³¤µ · ¨ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ¦³¤µ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ 110

0

88

8

-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174

-3

04FY

05FY

06FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

07FY

08FY

° ¸ εĮo »¨Á · ­ µ »¨­¼ ªnµ »¨

-28 -75

-42 -74

-96

-236 -266

-271

364 -401

-412 -466

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

'14/8mo

75

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Hong Kong South Korea Singapore Russia Taiwan Australia Philippines Thailand Indonesia Euro Area US China Malaysia Brazil Vietnam India -7.0

Pakistan Japan

Source: The Economist

-7.9

¦³¤µ ° Å ¥¥´ º°ªnµÅ¤n­¼

È 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -2.1 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.7 -4.9

76

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ­µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ­¼ ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2014 ´¥q 4.5a – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 4.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

3.0

2.0

Direct Government debt

1.0

0.0 2010 10%

2011

2012

2013

Jul-14

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as

4 ´¥q 4.5b – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

25% 20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

5% 0%

2010

ternal debt percent of total

2011

2012

2013

Jul-14

77

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® ¸Ê ­µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å ħ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2013 (юіѣєѥцдѥіцҙ) 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania

22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat

¸­É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·

26

ta

48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia

59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

78

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­¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

¬ ·¤¥¢´

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкєѨѰьњѱ • дѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥў • дѥіѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѰј ѲьецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіэіѧѱѓзъѤкѸ ѓѥзі • яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкшѼѥѷ дњҕѥюѨ д • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньд • Ѳьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд • ѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ к • ыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѱјдѲь • дѥіюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ 4.8% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2015

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчшѼѥѷ јкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњ ѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕѰшҕўьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњъѼѥѲ

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчѯюѶ ь 1.75% ѯкѧьѯђҖ Ѡ ѝѬкъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѕѤкзкъікш ѰјѣѠѕѬіҕ ѣчѤэѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкѰѕҕјк 8 ѯчѪѠь ѠѕѬщ ҕ кѩ ѯдѪѠэ 7 ўєѪь ѷ ј Җѥьэѥъ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћчѨе дѥіз Җѥ ѯкѧьъѫьѝѼѥіѠкѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥ

ѱь ҖєђѪѸ ьшѤњѱчѕѯшѧэѱшѳч Җ 0.4% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь діієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җдѥіѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖшѼѥѷ јѣдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥєѨѝњҕ ьнњҕ ѕѲў ҖѯћіќудѧлдјѤэєѥѯшѧэѱш іѤуѰјѣѯѠдньѯшѧэѱш дҕѠьўь ҖѥѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. јѤэєѥўчшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьдѶѕѤкзкєѨѰьњѱь ҖєўчшѤњшҕѠѳю дѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъѯшѧэѱш дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥјчјк ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њўчшѤњ кеѥјкѯёѪѠ ѷ діѣшѫ Җьѯћіќудѧл іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕјчјк ёѨеѠкѝѼѥьѤдшҕѥкѵѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 1.5-2.6% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014 Ѱјѣ 4.5-

њѝѬҕ 0.7% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲь ѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳў ҖіѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠчўьѨѯѸ ёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2013

Ѥ њҙєіѨ ѥзѥюіѤэѯёѧє ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчѯюѶ ь 1.73% ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ. ѱчѕѯьѪѠ Ѹ ѝш ѷ ь Җѥ ѯдѧчѓѥњѣѯкѧьѐѪ чѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє шѤњѳч ҖчѨ ѱчѕѝч ѷ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. ѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкчѨеь ѩѸ ьѰідеѠкюѨ 2014 чѫјкэюіѣєѥцѰѕҕјкдњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ еѩь Ѹ чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 8 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ лѥддѥіѯдѧьчѫј ѥъѰеѶкзҕѥеѩь Ѹ шѧчшҕѠдѤьѯюѶ ьѯчѪѠьъѨѷ 5 ѲьѯчѪѠьд.ѕ.

79

»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Á · »¨Ä nª 8 Á º° ¦

´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ

31.3 24.1

5.3 1.4

1.2

-5.0 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

13FY

14/8mo

° ¸ µ µ¦Á · »¨ µ¦ oµ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B) 32.6

29.8 17.0

09FY

10FY

11FY

16.2 6.0

6.4

12FY

13FY

14/8mo

-7.5

-9.1

-8.1

12FY

13FY

14/8mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶

+

-10.7

-12.9 -19.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤ º ç² ©´£ §´  §¹Ê¯ ¬º ¶ 21.3 6.7

2.2

-2.3

-2.9 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

-6.8 14/8mo

80

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¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ­³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2 Taiwan Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Q2

6.0%

South Korea Ͳ Aug

5.8%

Vietnam Ͳ 2013

5.6%

Russia Ͳ Q2

3.3%

Philippines Ͳ Jun

3.0%

Thailand Ͳ Q2

2.6%

Euro Area Ͳ Jul

2.3%

China Ͳ Q2

2.0%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

0.5%

Japan Ͳ Jul

0.3%

Pakistan Ͳ Q2

-2.1%

Australia Ͳ Q2

-2.2%

US Ͳ Q2

-2.4%

India Ͳ Q2

-2.8%

Indonesia Ͳ Q2

-3.5%

Brazil Ͳ Aug

-3.6%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡­¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.7%

56.5

11.8%

64.0 18.7 87.8 9.5 51.5 9.9 12.5 318.2 164.8 4.4 -7.1 -2.6 -42.8 -389.2

hailand and NESDB

-18.4 -26.3 -78.4

81

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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¦¹ É Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

37.0%

05YE

38.5%

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

35.4%

07YE

E

10YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

%

E

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

38.0%

38.2%

39.2%

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

82

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à ¦ ­¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Å¤nÁ ¨¸¥É ´¥q 5.11a – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ­ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

13%

16%

87%

84%

10YE

11YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

20%

18%

17%

80%

82%

83%

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

¥  ¨ Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.11b – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£¥²¤²Â©§´­ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term

50%

50%

10YE

45%

44%

43%

43%

55%

56%

57%

57%

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/2Q

83

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ªµ¤­µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѤѸ ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћіѣѕѣѝь

418% 370% 340% 312%

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

279%

269%

13YE

14/2Q

° Å ¥¥´ Ťn nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

´¥q 5.12b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© ´¥ Ï´¥²­ ·Ë . m¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯

7.6%

4.7%

4.6% 4.2%

4.0%

3.4%

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/2Q

84

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · ­Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥

´¥q 5.13a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª* ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

154.1 55.9

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

2009

´¥q 5.13b – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª лѼѥьњьѯчѪѠьъѨѝ ѷ ѥєѥіщѲннҖ ѥѼ іѣзҕѥдѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѳч Җ**

13.8 9.1 5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

2009

Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¨³¥´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

190.2

191.2

2013

Aug-14

1

9

8

9

2010

12.6 10.8

2010

2011

рѥ currency forward contracts

9.9

2012

9.1

2013

10.0

Aug-14

85

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Á · µ Â È nµ ¹Ê n°Á º°É Á È Á º° ¸É 5 ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

106.0

Baht appreciates

105.0

104.0

103.0

102.0

MͲoͲM

+0.9%

Sep-13

Dec-13

+2.3% Mar-14

Jun-14

100.0 99.0

YͲoͲY Baht depreciates

101.0

98.0

97.0 Sep-14

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

· n° ´

0

0

0

0

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ à § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§  §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 30/9/2014 JPY Ͳ 29.8871

8.5

AUD Ͳ 28.5168

3.4

EUR Ͳ 41.3681

3.1

IDR Ͳ 2.8726

1.5

0

PHP Ͳ 0.7348

0.3

0

VND Ͳ 0.0015

0.0

0

TWD Ͳ 1.0679

0.0

MXN Ͳ 2.4088

-0.4

SGD Ͳ 25.6609

-1.7

CNY Ͳ 5.3181

-2.1

MYR Ͳ 10.0489

-2.4

USD Ͳ 32.5161

-3.0

GBP Ͳ 52.9263 INR Ͳ 0.5629 KRW Ͳ 0.0309

-3.5 -4.8 -5.2

Baht depreciates

Baht appreciates 86

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