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MONTHLY ECONOMIC

January 2015


Executive summary Growth Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14. On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver. On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth. In November, both Manufacturing and Agriculture production recovered but were still below a year ago. On the expenditure side, Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover. BOI net application dropped. Export grew 6% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 9% in the first 11 months. Looking forward, Monetary policies are pro‐ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%. Government spending was recovered with the new government.

Confidence in private sector was mixed. Businesses and Consumers were more pessimistic in November. Industries were less pessimistic. The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015. Employment and wealth distribution Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies. Thailand’s per capita income was at USD 5,370 in 2013, ranked 103rd in the world. An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese. Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok. Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013.

Stability In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. Producer Price Index dropped from a year ago, creating a deflation. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 47% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated against key currencies for 8‐ month in a row in December.

2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

3


Growth seemed to pick up but at a very low pace

Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.8% 7.1% 6.5%

6.3% 5.3%

CAGR* 2002‐2013 = 4.1%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0%

2.9%

2.5%

0.4% 0.6%

0.1% -0.5%

-2.3% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


GDP grew 0.6% in 3Q14 thanks to Transport, Financials and Utilities Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 3Q14

Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q14

Year‐on‐Year percentage change

Contributions to total Real GDP growth

GDP

GDP

0.6

Utilities

4.5

Transport

Financial

4.1

Financial

Transport

3.7

0.6 0.4 0.2

Utilities

0.2

Education

2.9

Agriculture

PublicAdmin

2.8

Education

0.1

Trading

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Agriculture

2.0

Private HH

1.1

Trading

0.6

0.1

RealEstate

0.0

Health&Social

0.2

Health&Social

0.0

RealEstate

0.2

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

-0.1

Fishing

0.0

Other social

-0.2

Other social

0.0

Manufacture

-0.7

Mining

-1.7

Construction Hotel&Res Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

-2.7 -4.6

Mining

0.0

Construction Hotel&Res Manufacture

-0.1 -0.2 -0.3

5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Domestic demand drove GDP growth in 3Q14 Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 3Q14 Year‐on‐Year percentage change GDP

Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP

0.6

I

6.7

0.6

C

1.1

I (capital)

2.9

M (goods)

0.8

C

2.2

I (Inventory)

0.8

M (services)

1.3

G

0.4

I (capital) Discrpncy

X (goods)

-1.4

G

M (goods)

-1.6

M (services)

X (services)

-12.4

0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1

X (goods) X (services)

-0.8 -2.3

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

7


Manufacturing production remained flat and trailing last year’s level Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100)

Monthly Average 250.0

CAGR

2.7% 200.0

2013 194.2 174.6

182.9

161.1

170.0

177.6 181.6 175.7

150.0

2014

152.1 138.6 100.0

50.0

Y-o-Y

M-o-M

-3.5%

-0.1%

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Tobacco has a highest growth in production from a year ago

Chart 1.12a – Y‐on‐Y change in MPI by sector

Chart 1.12b – M‐on‐M change in MPI by sector

Nov 2014, percent

Nov 2014, percent

Tobacco

24.5

Precision instru

13.9

Wood products

10.0

Basic Mat

12.6

Petroleum

10.3

Apparel

10.0

Apparel

8.3

Food & Bev

Paper

7.5

Precision instru

Chemical

7.5

Textiles

4.4 2.4 1.6

Electronic

5.8

Vehicles

Basic Mat

5.0

Transport Equip

-0.6

Machineries

4.3

Office automate

-1.2

Leather

-1.6

Food & Bev

0.4

0.0

Leather

-0.5

Electrical

-1.7

Textiles

-1.0

Mineral

-1.7

Furniture

-2.1

Mineral

-4.3

Petroleum

-5.6

Rubber&Plastic

-5.0

Rubber&Plastic

-6.0

Paper

-5.5

Metal products

-7.4

Chemical

-5.8

Office automate

-7.7

Machineries

-6.1

Electrical

-9.5

Vehicles

-11.1

Transport Equip Furniture

-14.5 -27.7

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

Tobacco

-7.9

Electronic

-9.3

Wood products

-9.3

Metal products

-11.0

9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capacity utilization rate decreased slightly in November

Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate

Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector

Percent

November 2014, percent

100% 90% 80% 70%

Seasonally adjusted

60% Normal

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14

Rubber&Plastic Textiles Wood products Electrical Electronic Furniture Basic Mat Metal products Chemical Food & Bev Office automate Precision instru Leather Mineral Paper Vehicles Transport Equip Machineries Petroleum Tobacco Apparel

85% 77% 77% 76% 76% 70% 66% 64% 61% 60% 60% 59% 58% 57% 52% 48% 46% 45% 42% 35% 26%

10 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’s among the economies whose MPI dropped from a year ago Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Vietnam ‐ Dec

9.6

Indonesia ‐ Oct

8.3

Philippines ‐ Oct

7.6

China ‐ Nov

7.2

Taiwan ‐ Nov

6.9

US ‐ Nov

5.2

Malaysia ‐ Oct

5.0

Australia ‐ Q3

3.8

Pakistan ‐ Oct

1.8

Euro Area ‐ Oct

0.7

Russia ‐ Nov

-0.3

Hong Kong ‐ Q3

-1.8

Singapore ‐ Nov

-2.8

South Korea ‐ Nov

-3.4

Thailand ‐ Nov

-3.5

Brazil ‐ Oct

-3.6

Japan ‐ Nov

-3.8

India ‐ Oct -4.2 11 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Agriculture production increased from last month but is still lower than a year ago in November Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)

Monthly Average 300.0

2013

CAGR

3.2%

131.7 125.5

105.9

128.3

250.0

113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2

100.0

200.0

150.0

2014 100.0 Y-o-Y

-13.9% 50.0

M-o-M +123.6%

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

12 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

13


Private consumption recovered slightly in November

Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption Index* (2000=100)

Monthly Average 150.0

CAGR

2.5%

117.8

126.1 121.9 124.2

130.6

147.0 147.5 134.2

149.0

139.2

127.2

148.0

2013 147.0

146.0

2014 145.0 M-o-M

Y-o-Y

+0.0%

+0.7%

144.0

143.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Vehicle consumption expenditures were the biggest decliners so far this year Chart 1.16a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.16b – M‐on‐M change

First 11 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

Nov vs Oct 2014, percent

NGV (kg.)*

3.7

0.8

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

3.0

0.9

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

2.5

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

0.7

Diesel (litre)

0.4

LPG (litre)*

0.2

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

0.5 -1.0 -0.4

-2.9

Motocycle (Unit)

-15.8

Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)

0.3

-0.8 -2.5

-27.8 -42.9

Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

2.5 -2.4

15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Private Investment recovered well from last month in November

Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)

Monthly Average 260.0 255.0

M-o-M +1.4%

CAGR 250.0

4.9% 240.8 240.1 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0

193.5

183.9

Y-o-Y

-0.4% 245.0 240.0

2013

235.0

161.2 230.0

2014 225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Commercial car sales took the biggest hit so far this year

Chart 1.18a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.18b – M‐on‐M change

First 11 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

Nov vs Oct 2014, percent

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

0.1

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

-0.9

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

3.0

-2.8

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

0.4

1.0

-4.1

-28.1

Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

3.1

0.3

17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


FDI value increased almost by 7% during the first 10 months

Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD

Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000

12,807

2013

12,000

11,331 10,699

10,000

9,112 8,547 8,000

6,000

4,853

2014

4,000

3,861

2,000

0

07FY

08FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


BOI’s net application decreased 11% during the first 9 months of 2014

Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment* Billion Baht 648

525

396 351

351 311 236

09FY

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY

13FY

2013/9M

2014/9M

19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has been declining in recent years Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country group Percent of total

11%

Others

23%

27%

4% 10%

USA ANIEs ASEAN

3% 6% 6%

Europe

17%

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

12% 21% 2% 6% 10%

14% 8% 6%

7%

7% 25%

58%

Japan

44%

49%

54% 35%

10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

11FY

12FY

13FY

2014/9M 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Most key Property indicators have decreased so far in 2014 but big improvement in Condominium in October Chart 1.19a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.19b – M‐on‐M change

First 10 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

Oct vs Sep 2014, percent

Condo unit registered

5.9

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

Value of land transaction -14.3

-1.9

-7.2

55.3

-38.3

-2.1

-14.4

21 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

22


Improvement in trade balance is a combination of weaker THB and lower import Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB

Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD

First 11 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht

First 11 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 250

8,000 7,000

200

6,000 5,000

150 4,000 3,000

2013 2014 -3.0%

+6.1%

100

-0.4%

-9.0%

2,000 50

1,000 0

0

-1,000 -2,000

Export

Import

=

Trade balance

-50

Export

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Import

=

Trade balance

23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Export grew 6.1% in the first 11 months, thanks mainly to machinery, automotive and electronics Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions First 11 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export Re‐exports Machinery Petro‐chemical Footware Other manufacturing Jewellery Optical instru Electrical Electronics Fishery Aircrafts Automotive Apparels Agriculture Forestry Agro products Furniture Toiletries Chemicals 0.0 Petroleum -5.4 Metal -6.4 Other export -10.0 Photo instru -10.5 Mining -35.1

Contributions to total export growth

6.1 >100.0 15.9 15.3 14.8 14.4 13.6 11.9 10.8 8.5 7.8 7.3 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.7 3.6 2.2 1.9

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Total export Machinery Electronics Automotive Petro‐chemical Electrical Other manufacturing Agriculture Agro products Jewellery Apparels Optical instru Re‐exports Aircrafts Fishery Footware Forestry Toiletries Furniture Chemicals Photo instru Other export Mining Petroleum Metal

6.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Positive growth in all export markets so far this year

Chart 5.07a – Export by country

Chart 5.07b – Change in Export

Percent of total export in THB term

In THB term, First 11 months of 2014 vs those of 2013

฿ 5.2

฿ 6.1

฿ 6.7

฿ 7.1

Middle East

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

EU

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

Japan

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

ASEAN

NAFTA

12.2

17.4

18.1

18.4

18.1

16.7

Rest of the world

Middle East

East Asia ex‐Japan

20.1

20.4

21.0

21.0

100% =

฿ 6.9 (Trillion)

EU

ASEAN

21.3

09FY

23.0

10FY

11.5%

NAFTA

24.3

11FY

24.6

12FY

21.2

9.8%

6.9%

6.2%

Japan

25.9

Rest of the world

13FY

East Asia ex Japan

4.8%

4.4%

2.3%

25 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Import has decreased 3% so far in 2014, due mainly to the decrease in Others (mainly gold and vehicle parts) Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions First 11 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent

Total import

Contributions to total import growth

Consumer goods

-3.0

3.8 Intermediate ‐ Non fuel

Intermediate ‐ Non fuel

3.0

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

0.2

Capital goods

Others

Total import

-3.0

-0.2

-35.9

1.1

Consumer goods

0.3

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

0.0

Capital goods

Others

-0.1

-4.4

26 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Intermediate goods has gained more share this year

Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classification Percent of total import in Baht term ฿ 4.6

฿ 5.9

฿ 7.0

฿ 7.8

฿ 7.7

฿ 6.8

Others

7.8

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.1

8.2

Capital goods

22.3

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.2

100% =

(Trillion)

24.0

Intermediate – Non‐Fuel

43.0

44.0

40.0

37.5

36.0

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

18.6

17.4

18.9

18.9

20.6

21.2

Consumer goods

8.3

7.5

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.6

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/11MO

38.1

27 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Tourist arrivals dropped 9% in the first 11 months of this year compared to the same period last year Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits

Monthly cumulative 30.0

26.7

CAGR

25.0

10.6% 22.4

2013 20.0

19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8

11.7

15.0

14.1

11.5

10.0

10.0

2014 5.0

0.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

28 Source: Department of Tourism

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Cambodia and Myanmar have been the two highest growing markets for tourists so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Percent of total

First 11 month of 2014 vs 2013, Thousands

Rest of world

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.8

Americas

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

Europe

28.7

27.9

26.5

25.3

11.8

Cambodia

4.4

Myanmar

23.6

56.4 30.7

France

19.2

Philippines

10.7

Italy

9.0

Brazil

East Asia

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.0

60.2

Finland

3.1

Bangladesh

3.1

Israel Argentina 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

13FY

7.9

1.5 0.7

29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

30


Policy interest rate unchanged in December

Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate

Jan-14

Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.30%

2.30%

2.20%

2.20%

2.10%

2.10%

2.00%

2.00%

1.90%

1.90%

1.80% Dec-14

Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate*

1.80% Dec-14

Jan-14

Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* 10.00%

Max

7.50%

10.00% 7.50%

Min Max

5.00%

5.00%

2.50%

2.50%

Min Jan-14

0.00% Dec-14

Jan-14

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.00% Dec-14

31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Government spending recovered

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2013 2000

1500

1000

2014

500

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

32 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

33


Mixed sentiments in private sectors

Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100

Chart 1.21b – Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200

Better

50

48.0

Better

49.6

49.1

48.9

48.7

48.6

100

Worse

88.4

89.7

88.7

86.1

87.5

89.7

Worse

0

0 Jun-14

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Jun-14

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

34 Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Consumers are more pessimistic in November

Chart 1.20a – Consumer Confidence Index Overall

100

On job

100

Better

Better

50

Better

50 Worse

50 Worse

0

Worse

0 May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

0 May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month Source: Ministry of Commerce

On future income

100

Nov-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

36


BOT lowered its growth projection for 2014 to almost zero

Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections

For 2014, Annual percentage change

For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

BOT

BOT The Economist poll

FPO

5.00

4.00

NESDB

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

1.00

1.00

FPO

NESDB The Economist poll

0.00 Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Forecast as of, month ending

0.00 Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Forecast as of, month ending 37

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Low growth prospect for Thailand in 2014

Chart 1.04a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.04b – Real GDP growth projections

2014, Annual % change, as of Dec 30th

2015, Annual % change, as of Dec 30th 2014

China Philippines India Malaysia Vietnam Pakistan Indonesia Taiwan South Korea Singapore Australia Hong Kong US Euro Area 0.8 Thailand 0.7 Russia 0.6 Japan 0.5 Brazil0.2

2014 7.3

6.1 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.0 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.4 2.3

China India Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Thailand South Korea Singapore Taiwan US Australia Hong Kong Japan Euro Area Brazil Russia

7.0 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.5 5.4 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 -3.5 38

Source: The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

39


Unemployment rate decreased fast in November

Chart 2.08 – Unemployment rate Percent

Monthly Average 1.40

1.20

2.07

2014 1.83

1.00

1.51

1.49 1.38

0.80

1.38 0.60

1.04

0.68

0.66

0.72

2013

0.40

0.20

0.00 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

J F M A M J J A S O N D

40 Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comparing to other leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand ‐ Nov Singapore ‐ Q3 Malaysia ‐ Oct South Korea ‐ Nov Hong Kong ‐ Nov

0.6 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.3

Japan ‐ Nov

3.5

Vietnam ‐ 2013

3.6

Taiwan ‐ Nov China ‐ Q2 Brazil ‐ Nov Russia ‐ Nov

3.9 4.1 4.8 5.2

US ‐ Nov

5.8

Indonesia ‐ Q3

5.9

Philippines ‐ Q4

6.0

Pakistan ‐ 2013

6.2

Australia ‐ Nov

6.3

India ‐ 2013 Euro Area ‐ Oct

8.8 11.5

41 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

42


Overall improvement in income distribution in Thailand, except for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 – Thailand’s GINI coefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South North East

0.45

North Central Bangkok

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution of income. It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution.

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

43

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Slight improvement of income distribution when compared the top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 – Quintile by income Percent of total income

Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

13.1

14.5

13.4

12.2

14.8

13.1

12.3

11.8

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

56.1

57.4

56.0

54.7

56.3

55.0

54.4

54.4

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

19.7

19.9

19.8

19.9

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.4

20.3

19.6

18.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.5

12.7

12.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

7.6

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.3

7.3 4.0

7.7

Bottom 20%

7.1 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.8

4.2

4.4

4.6

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 44

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Data from World Bank suggests that income equality problem in Thailand is not as bad as in Malaysia or China Chart 2.03 – Income equality in the world Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% to the share of the poorest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

29.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

46


Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South Chart 2.04a

Chart 2.04b

Chart 2.04c

Thailand Poverty Line

Number of poor people

Percent of Poor people

Baht/ month/ person

Million

Percentage of total population

3,500

25

50% 45%

3,000 40%

20 2,500

35% 30%

15

2,000

25% 1,500

20%

10

15%

1,000

10%

5 500

5% 0

0 '02

'04

'06

'08

'10

Legend color:

'12

Overall

0% '02

'04

Bangkok

'06

'08

Central

'10

North

'12

'02

'04

North East

South

'06

'08

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the missing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

Source: NESDB

'10

'12

47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Many countries in Asia and especially ASEAN, still have majority of their populations earning less than $2.00 a day Chart 2.05 – Poverty in the world, selected countries Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), Latest Congo, Dem. Rep.

95.2

Madagascar

92.6

Nigeria

84.5

Ethiopia

77.6

Bangladesh

76.5

Timor‐Leste

72.8

India

68.7

Lao PDR

66.0

Pakistan

60.2

Nepal

57.3

Cambodia

53.3

Indonesia

46.1

Vietnam

43.4

Philippines

41.5

South Africa

31.3

Egypt, Arab Rep.

15.4

Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7

Brazil

10.8

Iran, Islamic Rep.

8.0

Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

China

29.8

Poland

0.2

Bhutan

29.8

Slovak Republic

0.1

Sri Lanka

29.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese Chart 2.06 – GNI per capita, selected countries

( ) = World rank

2013 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

186,950 136,770 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110

France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,… Brunei Darussalam… Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)

42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270 49

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Using Purchasing Power Parity, Thailand’s rank improved to 82nd, with higher GNI per capita than China Chart 2.07 – GNI per capita, selected countries

( ) = World rank

2013 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)

Source: The World Bank

88,170 76,850 68,090 66,520 66,390 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630

France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation… 23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 Timor‐Leste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760 50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Increasing trend in household income, expenditure and debt, but debt service year has reduced from the recent peak in 2004 Chart 2.10a – Monthly income per household

Chart 2.10c – Debt per household

Average, Baht

Average, Baht 23,236 17,787

18,660

2006

2007

25,403 134,900 104,571

14,963

2004

159,492

2011

2013

Chart 2.10b – Monthly expenditure per household

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

2011

2013

Chart 2.10d – Debt service year*

Average, Baht 3.3 2.8 17,403 12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

2011

19,259

2.3 1.9

2013

2004

2006

2007

2011

2.2

2013

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

51

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

52


Core inflation increased slightly while Headline dropped heavily because of energy Chart 3.07a – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI

Chart 3.07b – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI by product

Percent

December 2014, percent

2.50%

2.00%

Food away from home

4.8

Prepared food at home

4.7

Meat

4.4

Seasoning

Core*

3.6

Tobacco & alcohol

2.8

Housing & furnishing

1.50%

1.00%

Head line 0.50%

1.7

Medical care

1.3

Non alcoholic beverage

1.2

Rice

0.9

Apparel and footware

0.8

Recreation & Education

0.7

Veg & fruit

0.1

Eggs & milk 0.00% Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14 Dec-14

-1.4

Transport & Commu

-4.4

Energy -7.4 Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’s inflation is rather on the low side compared to other economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change

Latest

2014*

Russia ‐ Nov

9.1

Brazil ‐ Nov

7.7

6.6

Indonesia ‐ Nov

6.3

6.2

Hong Kong ‐ Nov

6.3

5.1

India ‐ Nov

4.4

4.4

Pakistan ‐ Nov

7.3

4.0

Philippines ‐ Nov

7.3

3.7

Malaysia ‐ Nov

4.4

3.0

Japan ‐ Nov

2.4

Australia ‐ Q3

2.3

Vietnam ‐ Dec

3.1 2.7 2.5

1.8

China ‐ Nov

1.4

US ‐ Nov

1.3

4.1 2.1 1.7

South Korea ‐ Nov

1.0

1.3

Taiwan ‐ Nov

0.9

1.3

Thailand ‐ Dec Euro Area ‐ Nov Singapore ‐ Nov -0.3 Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.6 0.3

1.9 0.5 1.1

54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Deeper deflation at the producer level

Chart 3.09a – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI

Chart 3.09b – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI by product

Percent

December 2014, percent

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0% Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14 Dec-14

Livestocks Mechinery Metal Non‐metallic mineral Other manu goods Transport equip Wood Forestry Forestry Food Textile Leather & footware Electrical equip Crop Basic metals Chemical Fishing Rubber & plastic Energy Petroleum products -23.9

3.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.3 -1.6 -6.8 -11.6 -14.0

55 Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

56


Big decrease in Loan to Deposit ratio signaling a cool down in economic activities Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,000 10,900 10,800

M-o-M

10,700

+0.4%

10,600 10,500

Y-o-Y

10,400

+5.6%

10,300 Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

97.9%

97.7%

97.8%

Sep-14

Oct-14

Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratio Percent 100% 97.5% 96.6%

96.0%

95.9%

95.0%

95.0%

Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14

Feb-14 Mar-14

96.3%

97.2%

96.4%

95%

90% Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Oct-14

57 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Gross NPL continued to increase in 14/Q3 in both absolute value and percent of total loan Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Billion Baht

445

458

401

380 317

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

270

256

267

11YE

12YE

13YE

281

285

295

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3

Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Percentage of Total Loans

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

2.26%

2.29%

2.35%

2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 58

Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Banks’ capital ratio increased again in October

Chart 3.04 – Capital ratio of all commercial banks* % of risk assets, at year end

Month End 17.5%

15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

2014

15.7% 17.0%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3% 12.4%

16.5%

2013 16.0%

15.5%

15.0%

14.5% 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’s real interest rate is zero Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Dec 30th 2014

3M risk‐free interest rates Russia

5.2

China

5.1

Malaysia

3.0

Philippines

2.5

South Korea

2.2

Thailand

1.9

Taiwan

0.9

Singapore

0.4

Hong Kong

0.4

US

0.3

Japan

0.1

Euro Area

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

1.1 0.9

6.3

1.1

4.1

3.0

2.1

4.0

Australia

2.3

7.3

7.2

Vietnam

5.7 7.3

8.4

Indonesia

17.3

6.3

9.6

India

Real interest rates

7.7

12.0

Pakistan

=

Expected 2014 inflation*

25.0

Brazil

Source: The Economist

0.9

3.1

0.5

2.5 4.4

-1.9 0.9

1.3 0.0

1.9

-0.4

1.3

-0.7

1.1 4.4

-1.4

1.7 2.7 0.5

-4.0

-2.6 -0.4

60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


SET index dropped 6% in December amid heavy foreign sell off Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET index

Chart 3.06c – Change since Dec 31st 2013

Percent change from prior month, at month end

Percent, as of Dec 29th 2014

3.9% 1.1%

China (SSEA)

1.5%

0.6%

49.9%

India (BSE)

29.4%

Pakistan (KSE)

-0.1%

26.3%

Indonesia (JSX) -6.0%

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end

21.2%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

16.1%

Thailand (SET)

15.4%

US (NAScomp)

15.1%

US (S&P 500)

13.1%

US (DJIA)

8.8%

Japan (Nikkei 225)

8.8%

Taiwan (TWI)

7.8%

Singapore (STI)

0.0 -10.0

6.3%

Germany (DAX)

3.9%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

2.8%

HK (Hang Seng)

2.0%

-20.0

Australia (All Ord.)

1.8%

-30.0

France (CAC 40)

-40.0

UK (FTSE 100)

-50.0 J-14

F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14

J-14

A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14

0.5% -1.7%

S Korea (KOSPI)

-4.2%

Malaysia (KLSE)

-5.3%

61 Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

62


Lower budget and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in 2013

Chart 4.1 – Government budget and cash balance as percentage of nominal GDP Percent Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)

1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1% -0.3%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.1%-1.1%

-0.9%

-1.7% -2.0%

-2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

04FY

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY 63

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is almost 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013 Chart 4.2 – Government budget balance Billion Baht Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 2,078

Revenue 1,109

1,751 1,241

1,390

1,455

1,498

2,153

100.0

1,902 50.0

1,484 0.0

2014 0

-36

Budget balance

110 -174

-75

-100

-50.0

-28

-364

-412

-271 -100.0

-1,109 -1,277

-150.0

-1,280 -1,629

Expenditure

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-200.0

-1,930

2013 -2,489

-2,424

-250.0

-300.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

J F M A M J J A S O N D

64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Budget deficit so far in 2014

Chart 4.3 – Government cash balance Billion Baht Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) 110 88

0

8

-28

-36 -45 -75

-96

-100 -96 -144 -174

-213 -236 -266

-244

-271

-364 -401

-412 -466

04FY

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

'14/11mo

65 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’s budget deficit is expected to be around 2.2% of GDP, slightly lower than Indonesia’s Chart 4.4 – Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP 2014*, percent Hong Kong

0.8

South Korea Singapore

0.6 0.5

Russia Taiwan

0.4 -1.4

Philippines Thailand Indonesia

-1.5 -2.2 -2.3

Euro Area Australia

-2.5 -2.6

US China Malaysia

-2.8 -3.0 -3.6

India Vietnam

-4.3 -4.7

Brazil Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-5.0 -5.5 -8.1

66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2014

Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt

Chart 4.5b – Composition of Public debt

THB Trillion

As percentage of nominal GDP 50%

6.0

45%

5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises

40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35%

4.0

30% Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

3.0

25% 20%

2.0

15%

Direct Government debt

1.0

10%

Direct Government debt

5%

0.0 2010 10%

0%

2011

2012

8%

8%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2013

Oct-14

7%

6%

2010

External debt as percent of total

2011

2012

2013

Oct-14

67 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’s public debt is not high compared to international standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est. 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania

226 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s data

48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia

59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agri production increased in November but are still lower than a year ago • Private consumption remained flat while Private Investment seems to recover • Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Mixed sentiments in private sectors. Consumers in overall were more pessimistic • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1. 5% for 2014 and 4.0‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate decreased fast to 0.55% in November. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• In December, Core inflation increased slightly to 1.69% while Headline dropped heavily to 0.6% due to the collapse in energy price. • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q14. Liquidity improved. • Budget balance during the first 11 months of 2014 is 100 Billion Baht worse off than the same period in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 8‐month in a row in December.

69


Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6

Chart 5.01 – Balance of Payment decomposition

29.8 21.3

Billion USD

17.0

09FY

31.3

10FY

11FY

6.0

6.4

12FY

13FY

14/11mo

-7.5

-9.1

-9.7

12FY

13FY

14/11mo

Net service income & transfer

24.1

+

-10.7

-12.9 -19.7

5.3 1.2 09FY

-1.2 -5.0 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

10FY

11FY

Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions

14/11mo 21.3 6.7

2.2

-2.3

-2.9

-12.8 09FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/11mo

70

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge current account surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP*

Last 12 months, USD Billion

Singapore ‐ Q3

20.7%

Taiwan ‐ Q3

11.9%

Malaysia ‐ Q3

5.7%

South Korea ‐ Nov

5.7%

Vietnam ‐ 2013

2.8%

Russia ‐ Q3

2.6%

Thailand ‐ Q3

2.6%

China ‐ Q3

2.4%

Euro Area ‐ Oct

2.3%

Hong Kong ‐ Q3

88.5 9.5 10.2 60.3 10.2 196.6 334.0 7.7

0.3%

India ‐ Q3

-2.0%

US ‐ Q3

-2.3%

Pakistan ‐ Q3

-2.6%

Australia ‐ Q3

-2.8%

Indonesia ‐ Q3

-2.9%

Source: The Economist

18.0

1.8%

Japan ‐ Oct

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

65.0

5.2%

Philippines ‐ Sep

Brazil ‐ Nov

58.9

-3.8%

6.8 -23.4 -388.1 -3.4 -42.9 -24.0 -88.7

71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


External debt increased slightly so far in 2014

Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP

37.0%

05YE

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

38.2%

38.8%

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

72 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Structure of external debt does not change from end of last year

Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown

Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown

Private vs Public

Long‐Term vs Short‐Term

Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

13%

16%

20%

18%

Long term Short term

18%

50%

87%

84%

80%

82%

11YE

12YE

13YE

44%

43%

41%

55%

56%

57%

59%

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

82%

50%

10YE

45%

14/3Q

10YE

73 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capability to repay external debt deteriorated but not yet a concern as debt service ratio is low and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12a – International reserves

Chart 5.12b – Debt service ratio*

As % of ST external debt

Percent

7.6%

418% 370% 340% 312% 279%

272%

4.7%

4.6% 4.2%

4.0%

3.4%

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/3Q

74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Net International reserves increased slightly so far this year and still considered excessive Chart 5.13a – International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

190.2

182.3

2013

Nov-14

9.1

9.5

2013

Nov-14

154.1 55.9

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

2009

2010

Chart 5.13b – International reserves as number of months of import** 13.8

12.6 10.8

9.1 5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

2009

2010

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

9.9

2011

2012

75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


THB appreciated again in December

Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Chart 5.17b – Y‐o‐Y change in FX rate*

2007=100

Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Dec 31st 2014 JPY ‐ 27.6511 110.0

Baht appreciates

MXN ‐ 2.2413

12.4

108.0

EUR ‐ 40.3552

12.3

106.0

AUD ‐ 27.0788

104.0

MYR ‐ 9.5621

M‐o‐M

+1.5%

102.0 100.0

Y‐o‐Y Baht depreciates Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

GBP ‐ 51.5035

5.3

SGD ‐ 25.1274

96.0 Dec-14

INR ‐ 0.5486

USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

5.8 5.4

KRW ‐ 0.0301

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers

8.7

TWD ‐ 1.0427

98.0

+6.8%

14.2

3.9 3.3 2.6

CNY ‐ 5.3519

2.3

IDR ‐ 2.8183

2.3

PHP ‐ 0.7512

0.2

VND ‐ 0.0016

0.0

USD ‐ 33.1132

-0.5

Baht depreciates

Baht appreciates 76 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


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