MONTHLY ECONOMIC
February 2015
Executive summary Growth Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14. On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver. On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth.
Confidence in private sector seemed to improve. Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐ 1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015.
In December, both Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level. On the expenditure side, Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover. BOI net application doubled.
Employment and wealth distribution Unemployment rate increased slightly to 0.56% in December. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies.
For the full year 2014, Export grew 5.9% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 7%.
Thailand’s per capita income was at USD 5,370 in 2013, ranked 103rd in the world. An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese.
Looking forward, Monetary policies are pro‐ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%. Government spending was recovered with the new government.
Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok. Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013.
Stability In January, In January 2015, Core inflation decreased slightly to 1.64% while Headline dropped heavily to ‐0.4%, entering deflation zone. Producer Price Index also dropped from a year ago, creating a deflation at the producer level. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. Total system’s NPL as percentage of loan unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Improved Balance of Payment in 2014, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated against key currencies for 9‐ month in a row in January.
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
3
Growth seemed to pick up but at a very low pace
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.8% 7.1% 6.5%
6.3% 5.3%
CAGR* 2002‐2013 = 4.1%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0%
2.9%
2.5%
0.4% 0.6%
0.1% -0.5%
-2.3% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
4 www.ChartingAsean.com
GDP grew 0.6% in 3Q14 thanks to Transport, Financials and Utilities Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 3Q14
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q14
Year‐on‐Year percentage change
Contributions to total Real GDP growth
GDP
GDP
0.6
Utilities
4.5
Transport
Financial
4.1
Financial
Transport
3.7
0.6 0.4 0.2
Utilities
0.2
Education
2.9
Agriculture
PublicAdmin
2.8
Education
0.1
Trading
0.1
PublicAdmin
0.1
Agriculture
2.0
Private HH
1.1
Trading
0.6
0.1
RealEstate
0.0
Health&Social
0.2
Health&Social
0.0
RealEstate
0.2
Private HH
0.0
Fishing
-0.1
Fishing
0.0
Other social
-0.2
Other social
0.0
Manufacture
-0.7
Mining
-1.7
Construction Hotel&Res
-2.7 -4.6
Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis
Mining
0.0
Construction Hotel&Res Manufacture
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3
5 www.ChartingAsean.com
Domestic demand drove GDP growth in 3Q14 Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 3Q14 Year‐on‐Year percentage change GDP
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
0.6
I
6.7
0.6
C
1.1
I (capital)
2.9
M (goods)
0.8
C
2.2
I (Inventory)
0.8
M (services)
1.3
G
0.4
I (capital) Discrpncy
X (goods)
-1.4
G
M (goods)
-1.6
M (services)
X (services)
-12.4
0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1
X (goods) X (services)
-0.8 -2.3
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services
Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
7
Manufacturing production remained flat and trailing last year’s level Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100)
Monthly Average 250.0
CAGR
2.7% 200.0
2013 194.2 174.6
182.9
161.1
170.0
177.6 181.6 175.7
150.0
2014
152.1 138.6 100.0
Y-o-Y
50.0
-0.3%
M-o-M
+1.3%
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
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Food and Beverage has the highest growth in production from a year ago Chart 1.12a – Y‐on‐Y change in MPI by sector
Chart 1.12b – M‐on‐M change in MPI by sector
Dec 2014, percent
Dec 2014, percent
Apparel
16.3
Electronic
13.3
Tobacco
12.5
Paper
9.0
Food & Bev
11.8
Electronic
10.2
Petroleum
8.0
Metal products
3.6
Rubber&Plastic
4.7
Paper
2.2
Metal products
4.5
Apparel
2.0
Machineries
4.4
Office automate
1.3
Chemical
4.0
Transport Equip
-0.5
Food & Bev
3.9
Tobacco
-0.7
Precision instru
2.3
Textiles
0.5
Basic Mat
-2.0
Furniture
-2.3
Textiles
-2.9
Vehicles
-3.9
Vehicles
-3.4
Chemical
-5.4
Petroleum
-3.5
Machineries
-6.2
Leather
-3.8
Leather
-6.2
Rubber&Plastic
-6.4
Mineral
-4.8
Office automate
-7.0
Electrical
-8.0
Mineral Precision instru
-9.7 -9.8
Transport Equip
-11.4
Electrical
Furniture
-11.9
Basic Mat
Wood products -17.8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis
-7.8
Wood products
-16.1 -27.0
9 www.ChartingAsean.com
Capacity utilization rate increased slightly in December
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector
Percent
December 2014, percent
100% 90% 80% 70%
Seasonally adjusted
60% Normal
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jul-14
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Rubber&Plastic Electronic Textiles Wood products Furniture Electrical Basic Mat Chemical Metal products Leather Food & Bev Office automate Precision instru Mineral Vehicles Transport Equip Machineries Paper Petroleum Tobacco Apparel
84% 82% 73% 72% 71% 69% 64% 62% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 58% 52% 46% 45% 44% 41% 33% 26%
10 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
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Thailand’s among the economies whose MPI dropped from a year ago Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Vietnam ‐ Jan
17.5
Philippines ‐ Nov
8.2
China ‐ Dec
7.9
Indonesia ‐ Nov
7.8
Taiwan ‐ Dec
7.3
US ‐ Dec
4.9
Pakistan ‐ Nov
4.9
Malaysia ‐ Nov
4.7
Russia ‐ Dec
4.0
Australia ‐ Q3
3.8
India ‐ Nov
3.8
South Korea ‐ Dec
0.4
Japan ‐ Dec
0.3
Euro Area ‐ Nov
-0.4
Thailand ‐ Dec
-0.4
Hong Kong ‐ Q3
-1.7
Singapore ‐ Dec
-1.9
Brazil ‐ Nov
-5.7
11 Source: The Economist
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Agriculture production decreased from a year ago in December
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)
Monthly Average 300.0
2013
CAGR
3.2%
131.7 125.5
105.9
128.3
250.0
113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2
100.0
200.0
150.0
2014 100.0 Y-o-Y
M-o-M
-4.8%
-50.1%
50.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
13
Private consumption retreated slightly in December
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption Index* (2000=100)
Monthly Average 150.0
CAGR
2.5%
117.8
126.1 121.9 124.2
130.6
147.0 147.5 134.2
149.0
139.2
127.2
148.0
2013 147.0
146.0
2014 145.0 Y-o-Y
M-o-M
-0.6%
-0.7%
144.0
143.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 www.ChartingAsean.com
Vehicle consumption expenditures were the biggest decliners so far this year Chart 1.16a – Y‐on‐Y change
Chart 1.16b – M‐on‐M change
2014 vs 2013, percent
Dec vs Nov 2014, percent
NGV (kg.)*
3.5
-0.1
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
3.4
-0.2
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
3.2
Diesel (litre)
0.8
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
0.3
LPG (litre)*
0.0
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
0.5 -2.9 0.1
-2.3
Motocycle (Unit)
0.3
-15.1
Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)
2.1
0.3
-26.7 -41.9
Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
0.3 -2.9
15 www.ChartingAsean.com
Private Investment continued to recover
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
Monthly Average 260.0 255.0
M-o-M
+0.1%
CAGR 250.0
4.9% 240.8 240.1 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0
193.5
183.9
Y-o-Y
245.0
+1.2%
240.0
2013
235.0
161.2 230.0
2014 225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 Source: Bank of Thailand
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Commercial car sales took the biggest hit so far this year
Chart 1.18a – Y‐on‐Y change
Chart 1.18b – M‐on‐M change
2014 vs 2013, percent
Nov vs Oct 2014, percent
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
0.9
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
-0.1
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
-2.9
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
-3.6
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
-27.2
Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
6.0
-0.3
1.2
-0.7
1.2
17 www.ChartingAsean.com
FDI value decreased by 4% during the first 11 months
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
12,807
2013
12,000
11,331 10,699
10,000
9,112 8,547 8,000
6,000
4,853
2014
4,000
3,861
2,000
0
07FY
08FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
18 www.ChartingAsean.com
BOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment* Billion Baht
1,023
648 525 396 236
10FY
11FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
12FY
13FY
14FY
19 www.ChartingAsean.com
FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declined sharply in 2014
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country group Percent of total
11%
Others
23%
USA ANIEs ASEAN
3% 6% 6%
Europe
17%
27%
4% 10%
2% 7% 8%
7% 10%
21%
25%
2% 6% 10%
13%
7%
7%
7%
10% 17% 58%
Japan
44%
49%
54% 29%
10FY
11FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis
12FY
13FY
14FY 20 www.ChartingAsean.com
Most key Property indicators have decreased so far in 2014
Chart 1.19a – Y‐on‐Y change
Chart 1.19b – M‐on‐M change
First 11 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent
Nov vs Oct 2014, percent
Condo unit registered
8.3
New housing unit
-4.8
Constr. Area in municipal
-5.3
Value of land transaction
-13.4
-26.9
-15.5
-30.9
-5.0
21 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
22
Improved trade balance in 2014 is a combination of weaker THB and lower import Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD
2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht
2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 300
9,000 8,000
250
7,000 6,000
200
5,000 2013 4,000 3,000
2014
150
-3.2%
+5.9%
-0.4%
-9.0%
100 2,000 1,000
50
0 0
-1,000 -2,000
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
-50
Export
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
–
Import
=
Trade balance
23 www.ChartingAsean.com
Export grew 5.9% in 2014, thanks mainly to machinery, automotive and electronics Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export Re‐exports Machinery Petro‐chemical Footware Optical instru Jewellery Other manufacturing Electrical Electronics Forestry Fishery Aircrafts Automotive Apparels Agriculture Agro products Toiletries Furniture Chemicals Metal -5.4 Petroleum -6.7 Other export -6.8 Photo instru -10.1 Mining -36.1
Contributions to total export growth 5.9 >100.0 15.4 14.3 14.2 13.4 13.4 12.3 11.3 8.1 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.4 6.1 4.8 3.8 2.1 1.7 0.1
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Total export Machinery Electronics Automotive Petro‐chemical Electrical Agro products Other manufacturing Jewellery Agriculture Apparels Optical instru Re‐exports Aircrafts Fishery Footware Forestry Toiletries Furniture Chemicals Photo instru Other export Mining Metal Petroleum
5.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
24 www.ChartingAsean.com
THB export value increased in all markets in 2014
Chart 5.07a – Export by country
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export
Percent of total export in THB term
In THB term, 2014 vs 2013
100% =
Rest of the world
฿ 6.1
฿ 6.7
฿ 7.1
฿ 6.9
฿ 7.3 (Trillion)
18.1
16.7
16.5
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
5.2
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
9.6 10.3
18.1
17.4
Middle East Japan
EU
10.7%
NAFTA
10.6%
ASEAN
6.5%
6.5%
EU
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
NAFTA
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
12.0
Middle East
East Asia ex‐Japan
20.4
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.3
Rest of the world
ASEAN
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
26.1
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
4.9%
Japan East Asia ex Japan
4.4%
1.5%
25 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
THB Import value decreased 3.2% in 2014, due mainly to the decrease in Others (mainly gold and vehicle parts) Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions 2014 vs 2013, percent
Contributions to total import growth
Total import
Consumer goods
-3.2
4.4 Intermediate ‐ Non fuel
Intermediate ‐ Non fuel
3.7
Capital goods
0.4
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
Others
Total import
-3.2
-3.0
-35.9
1.3
Consumer goods
0.4
Capital goods
0.1
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
Others
-0.6
-4.4
26 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
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Intermediate goods has gained more share this year
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classification Percent of total import in Baht term ฿ 4.6
฿ 5.9
฿ 7.0
฿ 7.8
฿ 7.7
฿ 7.4
Others
7.8
10.2
12.4
11.4
12.2
8.1
Capital goods
22.3
20.9
21.3
24.4
23.3
100% =
(Trillion)
24.2
Intermediate – Non‐Fuel
43.0
44.0
40.0
37.5
35.7
38.3
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
18.6
17.4
18.9
18.9
20.8
20.8
Consumer goods
8.3
7.5
7.5
7.8
8.0
8.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY 27
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
Tourist arrivals dropped 7% in 2014
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
Monthly cumulative 30.0
26.5
CAGR
10.6%
24.8
25.0
22.4
2013 20.0
19.2 15.9 14.5 11.7
15.0
14.1
11.5
10.0
10.0
2014 5.0
Y-o-Y
-7% 0.0
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
28 Source: Department of Tourism
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Cambodia and Myanmar have been the two highest growing markets for tourists in 2014 Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality
Percent of total
2014 vs 2013, Thousands
Rest of world
15.6
14.7
13.8
Americas
5.3
5.0
4.8
Europe
27.9
26.5
25.3
11.9
11.9
4.4
4.5
23.8
24.8
Cambodia
72.2
Myanmar
36.4
France
20.7
Philippines
16.5
Italy
12.8
Brazil
East Asia
51.2
53.8
56.0
59.9
58.8
Bangladesh United Kingdom Israel Switzerland
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis
9.3 6.0 4.3 3.1 0.7
29 www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
30
Policy interest rate unchanged again in January
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Feb-14
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.30%
2.30%
2.20%
2.20%
2.10%
2.10%
2.00%
2.00%
1.90%
1.90%
1.80% Jan-15
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate*
1.80% Jan-15
Feb-14
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* 10.00%
Max
7.50%
10.00% 7.50%
Min Max
5.00%
5.00%
2.50%
2.50%
Min Feb-14
0.00% Jan-15
Feb-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
Source: Bank of Thailand
0.00% Jan-15
31 www.ChartingAsean.com
Government spending recovered
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2013 2000
1500
1000
2014
500
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
32 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
33
Business and Industry were both less pessimistic in December
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Chart 1.21b – Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
49.6 50
Better
49.1
48.9
48.7
48.6
49.0 100
Worse
0
89.7
88.7
86.1
87.5
89.7
92.7
Worse
0 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
34 Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
www.ChartingAsean.com
Consumers were still pessimistic in December
Chart 1.20a – Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
On job
100
Better
Better
50
Better
50 Worse
50 Worse
0
Worse
0 Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
0 Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month Source: Ministry of Commerce
On future income
100
Dec-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
35 www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
36
FPO lowered its growth projection for both 2014 and 2015
Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections
Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections
For 2014, Annual percentage change
For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00
6.00
5.00
5.00 The Economist poll
BOT
4.00
4.00
NESDB
FPO
3.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
FPO BOT NESDB The Economist poll
0.00
0.00
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15
Forecast as of, month ending
Forecast as of, month ending 37
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
www.ChartingAsean.com
Low growth prospect for Thailand in 2014
Chart 1.04a – Real GDP growth projections
Chart 1.04b – Real GDP growth projections
2014, Annual % change, as of Jan 31st
2015, Annual % change, as of Jan 31st 2015
China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Pakistan Indonesia South Korea Taiwan Singapore Australia Hong Kong US Euro Area Thailand Russia Japan Brazil
2015
7.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.0 3.6 3.6 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Pakistan Thailand South Korea Taiwan Singapore US Australia Hong Kong Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia-3.5
7.1 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.6 1.1 1.0 0.5
38 Source: The Economist
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
39
Unemployment rate remained low in December
Chart 2.08 – Unemployment rate Percent
Monthly Average 1.40
1.20
2.07
2014 1.83
1.00
1.51
1.49 1.38
0.80
1.38 0.60
1.04
0.68
0.66
0.72
2013
0.40
0.20
0.00 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg
J F M A M J J A S O N D
40 Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
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Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comparing to other leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand ‐ Dec Singapore ‐ Q4 Malaysia ‐ Nov Hong Kong ‐ Dec
0.6 1.9 2.7 3.3
South Korea ‐ Dec
3.4
Japan ‐ Dec
3.4
Vietnam ‐ 2013 Taiwan ‐ Dec China ‐ Q4 Brazil ‐ Dec Russia ‐ Dec US ‐ Dec Indonesia ‐ Q3 Philippines ‐ Q4 Australia ‐ Dec Pakistan ‐ 2013 India ‐ 2013 Euro Area ‐ Dec
3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 8.8 11.4
41 Source: The Economist
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
42
Overall improvement in income distribution in Thailand, except for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 – Thailand’s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South North East
0.45
North Central Bangkok
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution of income. It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution.
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
43
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Slight improvement of income distribution when compared the top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 – Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
13.1
14.5
13.4
12.2
14.8
13.1
12.3
11.8
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
56.1
57.4
56.0
54.7
56.3
55.0
54.4
54.4
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
19.7
19.9
19.8
19.9
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.4
20.3
19.6
18.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.5
12.7
12.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.3
7.3 4.0
7.7
Bottom 20%
7.1 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.8
4.2
4.4
4.6
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 44
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
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Data from World Bank suggests that income equality problem in Thailand is not as bad as in Malaysia or China Chart 2.03 – Income equality in the world Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% to the share of the poorest 20% Latest, seleChartingAseand countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
29.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; ChartingAsean analysis
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
45
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
46
Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Chart 2.04c
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor people
Percent of Poor people
Baht/ month/ person
Million
Percentage of total population
3,500
25
50% 45%
3,000 40%
20 2,500
35% 30%
15
2,000
25% 1,500
20%
10
15%
1,000
10%
5 500
5% 0
0 '02
'04
'06
'08
'10
Legend color:
'12
Overall
0% '02
'04
Bangkok
'06
'08
Central
'10
North
'12
'02
North East
South
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conduChartingAseand every 2 years. For the missing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
Source: NESDB
47
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Many countries in Asia and especially ASEAN, still have majority of their populations earning less than $2.00 a day Chart 2.05 – Poverty in the world, seleChartingAseand countries Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), Latest Congo, Dem. Rep.
95.2
Madagascar
92.6
Nigeria
84.5
Ethiopia
77.6
Bangladesh
76.5
Timor‐Leste
72.8
India
68.7
Lao PDR
66.0
Pakistan
60.2
Nepal
57.3
Cambodia
53.3
Indonesia
46.1
Vietnam
43.4
Philippines
41.5
South Africa
31.3
Egypt, Arab Rep.
15.4
Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7
Brazil
10.8
Iran, Islamic Rep.
8.0
Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
China
29.8
Poland
0.2
Bhutan
29.8
Slovak Republic
0.1
Sri Lanka
29.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
48
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An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese Chart 2.06 – GNI per capita, seleChartingAseand countries
( ) = World rank
2013 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
186,950 136,770 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110
France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,… Brunei Darussalam… Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)
42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270 49
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Using Purchasing Power Parity, Thailand’s rank improved to 82nd, with higher GNI per capita than China Chart 2.07 – GNI per capita, seleChartingAseand countries 2013 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)
Source: The World Bank
88,170 76,850 68,090 66,520 66,390 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630
( ) = World rank France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation… 23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 Timor‐Leste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760 50
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Increasing trend in household income, expenditure and debt, but debt service year has reduced from the recent peak in 2004 Chart 2.10a – Monthly income per household
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household
Average, Baht
Average, Baht 23,236 17,787
18,660
2006
2007
25,403 134,900 104,571
14,963
2004
159,492
2011
2013
Chart 2.10b – Monthly expenditure per household
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
2011
2013
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year*
Average, Baht 3.3 2.8 17,403 12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
2011
19,259
2.3 1.9
2013
2004
2006
2007
2011
2.2
2013
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
51
Source: National Statistic Office survey; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
52
Headline CPI dipped into deflation zone in January
Chart 3.07a – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI
Chart 3.07b – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI by product
Percent
January 2015, percent
2.50%
Food away from home
4.1
Prepared food at home
3.9
Seasoning
2.00%
Core*
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
Head line
0.00%
3.0
Tobacco & alcohol
2.7
Meat
2.6
Medical care
1.3
Non alcoholic beverage
1.3
Housing & furnishing
1.3
Rice
0.9
Apparel and footware
0.8
Recreation & Education
0.7
Veg & fruit
-0.50%
-0.8
Eggs & milk -1.00% Aug-14 Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Transport & Commu
-2.1 -6.9
Energy -13.9 Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
53 www.ChartingAsean.com
Along with Euro area and Singapore, Thailand is in deflation state Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
2014*
Russia ‐ Dec
11.4
Indonesia ‐ Dec
7.7
8.4
Brazil ‐ Dec
6.4
6.4
India ‐ Dec
5.0
Hong Kong ‐ Dec
4.8
Pakistan ‐ Dec
6.3 7.2 4.4
4.3
Philippines ‐ Dec
2.7
Malaysia ‐ Dec
2.7
Japan ‐ Dec
7.2 4.2 3.1
2.4
Australia ‐ Q4
1.7
China ‐ Dec
1.5
2.8 2.5 2.1
Vietnam ‐ Jan
0.9
US ‐ Dec
0.8
South Korea ‐ Dec
0.8
1.3
Taiwan ‐ Dec
0.6
1.3
Singapore ‐ Dec
-0.2
Thailand ‐ Jan
-0.4
Euro Area ‐ Jan
-0.6
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
4.1 1.6
1.1 1.9 0.4
54 www.ChartingAsean.com
Deeper deflation at the producer level
Chart 3.09a – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI
Chart 3.09b – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI by product
Percent
January 2015, percent
3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% Aug-14 Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Mechinery Metal Livestocks Other manu goods Non‐metallic mineral Wood Transport equip Forestry Pulp & paper Food Leather & footware Electrical equip Textile Crop Basic metals Chemical Fishing Rubber & plastic Energy Petroleum products-35.0
2.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.7 -3.2 -7.0 -9.8 -21.4
55 Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
56
Big decrease in Loan to Deposit ratio signaling a cool down in economic activities Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,200 11,100 11,000
M-o-M
10,900
+1.0%
10,800 10,700
Y-o-Y
10,600
+5.0%
10,500 Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
97.7%
97.8%
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratio Percent 100% 97.5% 96.6%
96.0%
95.9%
97.9%
96.3%
97.2%
95.0%
96.4%
95.7%
95%
90% Dec-13 Jan-14
Feb-14 Mar-14
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14 Sep-14
Oct-14 Nov-14
57 Source: Bank of Thailand
www.ChartingAsean.com
Gross NPL continued to rise in absolute value in 2014, but remained unchanged as percentage of total loan Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Billion Baht
458
401
380 317
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
270
256
267
278
11YE
12YE
13YE
14YE
2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Percentage of Total Loans
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75%
11YE
2.26%
2.16%
2.16%
12YE
13YE
14YE
2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 58
Source: Bank of Thailand
www.ChartingAsean.com
Banks’ capital ratio decreased but remained high in November
Chart 3.04 – Capital ratio of all commercial banks* % of risk assets, at year end
Month End 17.5%
15.8%
16.2%
16.1%
14.9%
2014
15.7% 17.0%
14.8% 14.0%
13.9% 13.3% 12.4%
16.5%
2013 16.0%
15.5%
15.0%
14.5% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
Source: Bank of Thailand
2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
59 www.ChartingAsean.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is almost zero Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Jan 31st 2015
─
3M risk‐free interest rates Russia
22.0
Brazil
=
Expected 2014 inflation*
Real interest rates
7.7
12.0
14.3 5.7
6.3
Pakistan
8.6
7.2
1.4
India
8.2
7.2
1.0
Indonesia
7.1
Vietnam
5.0
China
4.9
Malaysia
2.7
Philippines
2.2
South Korea
2.0
Thailand
2.0
Taiwan
0.4
Singapore
0.4
US
0.3
Japan
0.1
Euro Area
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
2.8
2.1
0.7
3.1
0.2
2.5 4.2
-2.1 0.7
1.3
0.1
1.9
0.9
Hong Kong
0.9
4.1
3.8
Australia
0.7
6.4
-0.4
1.3 4.4
-0.7
1.1
-1.4
1.6 2.8 0.4
-4.0
-2.7 -0.4
60
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SET index increased 5.6% in January despite foreign sell off Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET index
Chart 3.06c – Change since Dec 31st 2013
Percent change from prior month, at month end
Percent, as of Jan 28th 2015
5.6% 3.9% 1.5%
Oct-14
Nov-14
India (BSE)
39.6%
Dec-14
36.1%
Indonesia (JSX)
23.3%
Thailand (SET)
22.6%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
-6.0%
Sep-14
56.4%
Pakistan (KSE)
0.6% -0.1%
Aug-14
China (SSEA)
Jan-15
19.0%
Germany (DAX)
12.1%
US (NAScomp)
11.0%
Taiwan (TWI)
10.4%
Japan (Nikkei 225)
9.2%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
9.1%
US (S&P 500)
8.3%
0.0
Singapore (STI)
7.9%
-1.0
France (CAC 40)
7.3%
-2.0
HK (Hang Seng)
6.7%
Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end
-3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 D-14 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15
US (DJIA)
3.7%
Australia (All Ord.)
3.1%
UK (FTSE 100) S Korea (KOSPI) Malaysia (KLSE)
1.1% -2.5% -3.8%
61 Source: SET, The Economist; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
62
Lower budget and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in 2013
Chart 4.1 – Government budget and cash balance as percentage of nominal GDP Percent Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)
1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1% -0.3%
-0.5%-0.6%
-0.7% -1.1%-1.1%
-0.9%
-1.7% -2.0%
-2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
04FY
05FY
06FY
07FY
08FY
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY 63
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
Budget balance in 2014 was 30 billion Baht lower that in 2013 Chart 4.2 – Government budget balance Billion Baht Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 2,075
Revenue 1,109
1,751 1,241
1,390
1,455
1,498
2,158
100.0
2013
1,902 50.0
1,484 0.0
2014 0
-36
Budget balance
-50.0
110 -174
-75
-100
-27
-364
-414
-267
-100.0 -150.0
-1,109 -1,277
-1,280
-200.0 -1,629
Expenditure
-1,598 -1,849
-1,825
-1,930
-250.0 -2,489
-2,424
-300.0 -350.0
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
J F M A M J J A S O N D
64 www.ChartingAsean.com
Budget and Cash deficit worsened in 2014
Chart 4.3 – Government cash balance Billion Baht Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) 110 88
0
8
-27
-36 -45 -75
-95
-100 -96 -144 -174
-242 -266
-267 -297 -305
-364 -401
-414 -466
04FY
05FY
06FY
07FY
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
65 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
www.ChartingAsean.com
Thailand’s budget deficit is expected to be around 2.5% of GDP, slightly higher than Indonesia’s Chart 4.4 – Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP 2014*, percent Hong Kong
0.8
South Korea Singapore
0.6 0.5
Russia Philippines
0.4 -0.6
Taiwan Indonesia Thailand
-1.4 -2.3 -2.5
Euro Area Australia
-2.5 -2.6
US China Malaysia
-2.8 -3.0 -3.6
India Vietnam
-4.3 -4.7
Brazil Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-5.5 -5.5 -8.2
66 www.ChartingAsean.com
A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2014
Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt
Chart 4.5b – Composition of Public debt
THB Trillion
As percentage of nominal GDP 50%
6.0
45%
5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises
40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35%
4.0
30% Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
3.0
25% 20%
2.0
15%
Direct Government debt
1.0
10%
Direct Government debt
5%
0.0 2010 8%
0%
2011
2012
2013
Nov-14
8%
7%
7%
6%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2010
External debt as percent of total
2011
2012
2013
Nov-14
67 www.ChartingAsean.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high compared to international standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est. 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania
226 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s data
48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia
59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8
Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
68 www.ChartingAsean.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped. • Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic. • The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015
Income distribution
• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013
Stability
• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved. • Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet. • Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.
69
Improved Balance of Payment in 2014, thanks to increased trade surplus Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
Chart 5.01 – Balance of Payment decomposition
29.8 24.6
Billion USD
17.0
09FY
31.3
10FY
11FY
6.0
6.7
12FY
13FY
14FY
Net service income & transfer
24.1
+
-10.7
-8.1
-7.5
-9.1
-10.4
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
-19.7
5.3 1.2 09FY
-1.2 -5.0 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
10FY
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions
14FY
21.3 6.7
2.2
-2.6
-7.7
09FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
10FY
11FY
-15.4 12FY
13FY
14FY
70
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Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge current account surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP*
Last 12 months, USD Billion
Singapore ‐ Q3
21.6%
Taiwan ‐ Q3
58.9
11.7%
South Korea ‐ Nov
65.0
5.8%
88.5
Malaysia ‐ Q3
4.2%
18.0
Vietnam ‐ 2013
4.2%
9.5
Philippines ‐ Sep
3.4%
Russia ‐ Q4
2.6%
Thailand ‐ Q3
2.6%
China ‐ Q3
2.4%
Euro Area ‐ Nov
2.4%
Hong Kong ‐ Q3 -2.0%
US ‐ Q3
-2.3%
Pakistan ‐ Q4
-2.6%
Indonesia ‐ Q3
-2.8%
Australia ‐ Q3
-3.1%
Source: The Economist
10.2 196.6 318.0 7.7
0.3%
India ‐ Q3
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
56.6
1.8%
Japan ‐ Nov
Brazil ‐ Dec
10.2
-4.0%
16.1 -23.4 -388.1 -3.5 -24.0 -42.9 -90.9
71 www.ChartingAsean.com
External debt increased slightly so far in 2014
Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/3Q
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
37.0%
05YE
38.5%
06YE
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
38.0%
38.2%
38.8%
12YE
13YE
14/3Q
72 Source: Bank of Thailand
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Structure of external debt does not change from end of last year
Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown
Private vs Public
Long‐Term vs Short‐Term
Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
13%
16%
20%
18%
Long term Short term
18%
50%
87%
84%
80%
82%
11YE
12YE
13YE
44%
43%
41%
55%
56%
57%
59%
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/3Q
82%
50%
10YE
45%
14/3Q
10YE
73 Source: Bank of Thailand
www.ChartingAsean.com
Capability to repay external debt deteriorated but not yet a concern as debt service ratio is low and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12a – International reserves
Chart 5.12b – Debt service ratio*
As % of ST external debt
Percent
7.6%
418% 370% 340% 312% 279%
272%
4.7%
4.6% 4.2%
4.0%
3.4%
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/3Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14/3Q
74 www.ChartingAsean.com
Net International reserves decreased slightly in 2014 but still considered excessive Chart 5.13a – International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
180.2
2013
2014
9.1
9.5
2013
2014
154.1 55.9
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
2009
2010
Chart 5.13b – International reserves as number of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
9.1 5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
9.9
7.9
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
2011
2012
75 www.ChartingAsean.com
THB appreciated sharply in January
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
Chart 5.17b – Y‐o‐Y change in FX rate*
2007=100
Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Jan 31st 2015 EUR ‐ 37.3634 112.0
Baht appreciates
110.0 108.0 106.0
Oct-14
MXN ‐ 2.2205
11.7
100.0
SGD ‐ 24.436
6.8
98.0
VND ‐ 0.0015
6.7
96.0
IDR ‐ 2.7524
5.5
94.0 Jan-15
TWD ‐ 1.0407
4.9
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
13.7
MYR ‐ 9.1883
+10% Jul-14
AUD ‐ 25.7537
102.0
Y‐o‐Y
Apr-14
15.8
GBP ‐ 49.6875
+1.6%
Jan-14
JPY ‐ 28.0095
104.0
M‐o‐M
Baht depreciates
20.5
10.2 9.1
CNY ‐ 5.2946
4.2
KRW ‐ 0.0299
2.7
USD ‐ 32.8677 INR ‐ 0.5621 PHP ‐ 0.7567
0.8 -0.4 -1.9
Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates 76 www.ChartingAsean.com