150131 eng emag

MONTHLY ECONOMIC

February 2015

Executive summary Growth Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14. On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver. On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth.

Confidence in private sector seemed to improve. Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐ 1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015.

In December, both Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level. On the expenditure side, Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover. BOI net application doubled.

Employment and wealth distribution Unemployment rate increased slightly to 0.56% in December. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies.

For the full year 2014, Export grew 5.9% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 7%.

Thailand’s per capita income was at USD 5,370 in 2013, ranked 103rd in the world. An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese.

Looking forward, Monetary policies are pro‐ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%.

Government spending was recovered with the new government.

Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok. Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013.

Stability In January, In January 2015, Core inflation decreased slightly to 1.64% while Headline dropped heavily to ‐0.4%, entering deflation zone. Producer Price Index also dropped from a year ago, creating a deflation at the producer level.

Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. Total system’s NPL as percentage of loan unchanged in 2014.

Liquidity improved.

Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.

Improved Balance of Payment in 2014, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated against key currencies for 9‐ month in a row in January.

2

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

3

Growth seemed to pick up but at a very low pace

Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.8% 7.1% 6.5%

6.3% 5.3%

CAGR* 2002‐2013 = 4.1%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0%

2.9%

2.5%

0.4% 0.6%

0.1% -0.5%

-2.3% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

4 www.ChartingAsean.com

GDP grew 0.6% in 3Q14 thanks to Transport, Financials and Utilities Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 3Q14

Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q14

Year‐on‐Year percentage change

Contributions to total Real GDP growth

GDP

GDP

0.6

Utilities

4.5

Transport

Financial

4.1

Financial

Transport

3.7

0.6 0.4 0.2

Utilities

0.2

Education

2.9

Agriculture

PublicAdmin

2.8

Education

0.1

Trading

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Agriculture

2.0

Private HH

1.1

Trading

0.6

0.1

RealEstate

0.0

Health&Social

0.2

Health&Social

0.0

RealEstate

0.2

Private HH

0.0

Fishing

-0.1

Fishing

0.0

Other social

-0.2

Other social

0.0

Manufacture

-0.7

Mining

-1.7

Construction Hotel&Res

-2.7 -4.6

Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis

Mining

0.0

Construction Hotel&Res Manufacture

-0.1 -0.2 -0.3

5 www.ChartingAsean.com

Domestic demand drove GDP growth in 3Q14 Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 3Q14 Year‐on‐Year percentage change GDP

Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP

0.6

I

6.7

0.6

C

1.1

I (capital)

2.9

M (goods)

0.8

C

2.2

I (Inventory)

0.8

M (services)

1.3

G

0.4

I (capital) Discrpncy

X (goods)

-1.4

G

M (goods)

-1.6

M (services)

X (services)

-12.4

0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1

X (goods) X (services)

-0.8 -2.3

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services

Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis

6 www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

7

Manufacturing production remained flat and trailing last year’s level Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100)

Monthly Average 250.0

CAGR

2.7% 200.0

2013 194.2 174.6

182.9

161.1

170.0

177.6 181.6 175.7

150.0

2014

152.1 138.6 100.0

Y-o-Y

50.0

-0.3%

M-o-M

+1.3%

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

www.ChartingAsean.com

Food and Beverage has the highest growth in production from a year ago Chart 1.12a – Y‐on‐Y change in MPI by sector

Chart 1.12b – M‐on‐M change in MPI by sector

Dec 2014, percent

Dec 2014, percent

Apparel

16.3

Electronic

13.3

Tobacco

12.5

Paper

9.0

Food & Bev

11.8

Electronic

10.2

Petroleum

8.0

Metal products

3.6

Rubber&Plastic

4.7

Paper

2.2

Metal products

4.5

Apparel

2.0

Machineries

4.4

Office automate

1.3

Chemical

4.0

Transport Equip

-0.5

Food & Bev

3.9

Tobacco

-0.7

Precision instru

2.3

Textiles

0.5

Basic Mat

-2.0

Furniture

-2.3

Textiles

-2.9

Vehicles

-3.9

Vehicles

-3.4

Chemical

-5.4

Petroleum

-3.5

Machineries

-6.2

Leather

-3.8

Leather

-6.2

Rubber&Plastic

-6.4

Mineral

-4.8

Office automate

-7.0

Electrical

-8.0

Mineral Precision instru

-9.7 -9.8

Transport Equip

-11.4

Electrical

Furniture

-11.9

Basic Mat

Wood products -17.8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis

-7.8

Wood products

-16.1 -27.0

9 www.ChartingAsean.com

Capacity utilization rate increased slightly in December

Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate

Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector

Percent

December 2014, percent

100% 90% 80% 70%

Seasonally adjusted

60% Normal

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Rubber&Plastic Electronic Textiles Wood products Furniture Electrical Basic Mat Chemical Metal products Leather Food & Bev Office automate Precision instru Mineral Vehicles Transport Equip Machineries Paper Petroleum Tobacco Apparel

84% 82% 73% 72% 71% 69% 64% 62% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 58% 52% 46% 45% 44% 41% 33% 26%

10 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

www.ChartingAsean.com

Thailand’s among the economies whose MPI dropped from a year ago Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Vietnam ‐ Jan

17.5

Philippines ‐ Nov

8.2

China ‐ Dec

7.9

Indonesia ‐ Nov

7.8

Taiwan ‐ Dec

7.3

US ‐ Dec

4.9

Pakistan ‐ Nov

4.9

Malaysia ‐ Nov

4.7

Russia ‐ Dec

4.0

Australia ‐ Q3

3.8

India ‐ Nov

3.8

South Korea ‐ Dec

0.4

Japan ‐ Dec

0.3

Euro Area ‐ Nov

-0.4

Thailand ‐ Dec

-0.4

Hong Kong ‐ Q3

-1.7

Singapore ‐ Dec

-1.9

Brazil ‐ Nov

-5.7

11 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingAsean.com

Agriculture production decreased from a year ago in December

Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)

Monthly Average 300.0

2013

CAGR

3.2%

131.7 125.5

105.9

128.3

250.0

113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2

100.0

200.0

150.0

2014 100.0 Y-o-Y

M-o-M

-4.8%

-50.1%

50.0

0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

12 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

13

Private consumption retreated slightly in December

Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption Index* (2000=100)

Monthly Average 150.0

CAGR

2.5%

117.8

126.1 121.9 124.2

130.6

147.0 147.5 134.2

149.0

139.2

127.2

148.0

2013 147.0

146.0

2014 145.0 Y-o-Y

M-o-M

-0.6%

-0.7%

144.0

143.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 www.ChartingAsean.com

Vehicle consumption expenditures were the biggest decliners so far this year Chart 1.16a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.16b – M‐on‐M change

2014 vs 2013, percent

Dec vs Nov 2014, percent

NGV (kg.)*

3.5

-0.1

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

3.4

-0.2

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

3.2

Diesel (litre)

0.8

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

0.3

LPG (litre)*

0.0

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

0.5 -2.9 0.1

-2.3

Motocycle (Unit)

0.3

-15.1

Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)

2.1

0.3

-26.7 -41.9

Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

0.3 -2.9

15 www.ChartingAsean.com

Private Investment continued to recover

Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)

Monthly Average 260.0 255.0

M-o-M

+0.1%

CAGR 250.0

4.9% 240.8 240.1 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0

193.5

183.9

Y-o-Y

245.0

+1.2%

240.0

2013

235.0

161.2 230.0

2014 225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingAsean.com

Commercial car sales took the biggest hit so far this year

Chart 1.18a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.18b – M‐on‐M change

2014 vs 2013, percent

Nov vs Oct 2014, percent

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

0.9

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

-0.1

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

-2.9

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

-3.6

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

-27.2

Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

6.0

-0.3

1.2

-0.7

1.2

17 www.ChartingAsean.com

FDI value decreased by 4% during the first 11 months

Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD

Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000

12,807

2013

12,000

11,331 10,699

10,000

9,112 8,547 8,000

6,000

4,853

2014

4,000

3,861

2,000

0

07FY

08FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

18 www.ChartingAsean.com

BOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014

Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment* Billion Baht

1,023

648 525 396 236

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY

13FY

14FY

19 www.ChartingAsean.com

FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declined sharply in 2014

Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country group Percent of total

11%

Others

23%

USA ANIEs ASEAN

3% 6% 6%

Europe

17%

27%

4% 10%

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

21%

25%

2% 6% 10%

13%

7%

7%

7%

10% 17% 58%

Japan

44%

49%

54% 29%

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis

12FY

13FY

14FY 20 www.ChartingAsean.com

Most key Property indicators have decreased so far in 2014

Chart 1.19a – Y‐on‐Y change

Chart 1.19b – M‐on‐M change

First 11 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent

Nov vs Oct 2014, percent

Condo unit registered

8.3

New housing unit

-4.8

Constr. Area in municipal

-5.3

Value of land transaction

-13.4

-26.9

-15.5

-30.9

-5.0

21 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

22

Improved trade balance in 2014 is a combination of weaker THB and lower import Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB

Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD

2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht

2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 300

9,000 8,000

250

7,000 6,000

200

5,000 2013 4,000 3,000

2014

150

-3.2%

+5.9%

-0.4%

-9.0%

100 2,000 1,000

50

0 0

-1,000 -2,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

-50

Export

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

–

Import

=

Trade balance

23 www.ChartingAsean.com

Export grew 5.9% in 2014, thanks mainly to machinery, automotive and electronics Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export Re‐exports Machinery Petro‐chemical Footware Optical instru Jewellery Other manufacturing Electrical Electronics Forestry Fishery Aircrafts Automotive Apparels Agriculture Agro products Toiletries Furniture Chemicals Metal -5.4 Petroleum -6.7 Other export -6.8 Photo instru -10.1 Mining -36.1

Contributions to total export growth 5.9 >100.0 15.4 14.3 14.2 13.4 13.4 12.3 11.3 8.1 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.4 6.1 4.8 3.8 2.1 1.7 0.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

Total export Machinery Electronics Automotive Petro‐chemical Electrical Agro products Other manufacturing Jewellery Agriculture Apparels Optical instru Re‐exports Aircrafts Fishery Footware Forestry Toiletries Furniture Chemicals Photo instru Other export Mining Metal Petroleum

5.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4

24 www.ChartingAsean.com

THB export value increased in all markets in 2014

Chart 5.07a – Export by country

Chart 5.07b – Change in Export

Percent of total export in THB term

In THB term, 2014 vs 2013

100% =

Rest of the world

฿ 6.1

฿ 6.7

฿ 7.1

฿ 6.9

฿ 7.3 (Trillion)

18.1

16.7

16.5

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.2

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

9.6 10.3

18.1

17.4

Middle East Japan

EU

10.7%

NAFTA

10.6%

ASEAN

6.5%

6.5%

EU

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

NAFTA

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

12.0

Middle East

East Asia ex‐Japan

20.4

21.0

21.0

21.2

20.3

Rest of the world

ASEAN

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

26.1

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

4.9%

Japan East Asia ex Japan

4.4%

1.5%

25 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

THB Import value decreased 3.2% in 2014, due mainly to the decrease in Others (mainly gold and vehicle parts) Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions 2014 vs 2013, percent

Contributions to total import growth

Total import

Consumer goods

-3.2

4.4 Intermediate ‐ Non fuel

Intermediate ‐ Non fuel

3.7

Capital goods

0.4

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

Others

Total import

-3.2

-3.0

-35.9

1.3

Consumer goods

0.4

Capital goods

0.1

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

Others

-0.6

-4.4

26 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

Intermediate goods has gained more share this year

Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classification Percent of total import in Baht term ฿ 4.6

฿ 5.9

฿ 7.0

฿ 7.8

฿ 7.7

฿ 7.4

Others

7.8

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.2

8.1

Capital goods

22.3

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.3

100% =

(Trillion)

24.2

Intermediate – Non‐Fuel

43.0

44.0

40.0

37.5

35.7

38.3

Intermediate ‐ Fuel

18.6

17.4

18.9

18.9

20.8

20.8

Consumer goods

8.3

7.5

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY 27

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

Tourist arrivals dropped 7% in 2014

Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits

Monthly cumulative 30.0

26.5

CAGR

10.6%

24.8

25.0

22.4

2013 20.0

19.2 15.9 14.5 11.7

15.0

14.1

11.5

10.0

10.0

2014 5.0

Y-o-Y

-7% 0.0

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

28 Source: Department of Tourism

www.ChartingAsean.com

Cambodia and Myanmar have been the two highest growing markets for tourists in 2014 Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Percent of total

2014 vs 2013, Thousands

Rest of world

15.6

14.7

13.8

Americas

5.3

5.0

4.8

Europe

27.9

26.5

25.3

11.9

11.9

4.4

4.5

23.8

24.8

Cambodia

72.2

Myanmar

36.4

France

20.7

Philippines

16.5

Italy

12.8

Brazil

East Asia

51.2

53.8

56.0

59.9

58.8

Bangladesh United Kingdom Israel Switzerland

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis

9.3 6.0 4.3 3.1 0.7

29 www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

30

Policy interest rate unchanged again in January

Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate

Feb-14

Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.30%

2.30%

2.20%

2.20%

2.10%

2.10%

2.00%

2.00%

1.90%

1.90%

1.80% Jan-15

Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate*

1.80% Jan-15

Feb-14

Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* 10.00%

Max

7.50%

10.00% 7.50%

Min Max

5.00%

5.00%

2.50%

2.50%

Min Feb-14

0.00% Jan-15

Feb-14

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.00% Jan-15

31 www.ChartingAsean.com

Government spending recovered

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2013 2000

1500

1000

2014

500

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

32 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

33

Business and Industry were both less pessimistic in December

Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100

Chart 1.21b – Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200

Better

49.6 50

Better

49.1

48.9

48.7

48.6

49.0 100

Worse

0

89.7

88.7

86.1

87.5

89.7

92.7

Worse

0 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

34 Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

www.ChartingAsean.com

Consumers were still pessimistic in December

Chart 1.20a – Consumer Confidence Index Overall

100

On job

100

Better

Better

50

Better

50 Worse

50 Worse

0

Worse

0 Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

0 Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month Source: Ministry of Commerce

On future income

100

Dec-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

35 www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

36

FPO lowered its growth projection for both 2014 and 2015

Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections

For 2014, Annual percentage change

For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00

6.00

5.00

5.00 The Economist poll

BOT

4.00

4.00

NESDB

FPO

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

1.00

1.00

FPO BOT NESDB The Economist poll

0.00

0.00

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15

Forecast as of, month ending

Forecast as of, month ending 37

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

www.ChartingAsean.com

Low growth prospect for Thailand in 2014

Chart 1.04a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.04b – Real GDP growth projections

2014, Annual % change, as of Jan 31st

2015, Annual % change, as of Jan 31st 2015

China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Pakistan Indonesia South Korea Taiwan Singapore Australia Hong Kong US Euro Area Thailand Russia Japan Brazil

2015

7.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.0 3.6 3.6 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1

China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Pakistan Thailand South Korea Taiwan Singapore US Australia Hong Kong Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia-3.5

7.1 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.6 1.1 1.0 0.5

38 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

39

Unemployment rate remained low in December

Chart 2.08 – Unemployment rate Percent

Monthly Average 1.40

1.20

2.07

2014 1.83

1.00

1.51

1.49 1.38

0.80

1.38 0.60

1.04

0.68

0.66

0.72

2013

0.40

0.20

0.00 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg

J F M A M J J A S O N D

40 Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingAsean.com

Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comparing to other leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand ‐ Dec Singapore ‐ Q4 Malaysia ‐ Nov Hong Kong ‐ Dec

0.6 1.9 2.7 3.3

South Korea ‐ Dec

3.4

Japan ‐ Dec

3.4

Vietnam ‐ 2013 Taiwan ‐ Dec China ‐ Q4 Brazil ‐ Dec Russia ‐ Dec US ‐ Dec Indonesia ‐ Q3 Philippines ‐ Q4 Australia ‐ Dec Pakistan ‐ 2013 India ‐ 2013 Euro Area ‐ Dec

3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 8.8 11.4

41 Source: The Economist

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

42

Overall improvement in income distribution in Thailand, except for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 – Thailand’s GINI coefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South North East

0.45

North Central Bangkok

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution of income.

It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income).

Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution.

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

43

www.ChartingAsean.com

Slight improvement of income distribution when compared the top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 – Quintile by income Percent of total income

Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

13.1

14.5

13.4

12.2

14.8

13.1

12.3

11.8

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

56.1

57.4

56.0

54.7

56.3

55.0

54.4

54.4

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

19.7

19.9

19.8

19.9

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.4

20.3

19.6

18.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.5

12.7

12.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

7.6

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.3

7.3 4.0

7.7

Bottom 20%

7.1 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.8

4.2

4.4

4.6

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 44

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

www.ChartingAsean.com

Data from World Bank suggests that income equality problem in Thailand is not as bad as in Malaysia or China Chart 2.03 – Income equality in the world Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% to the share of the poorest 20% Latest, seleChartingAseand countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

29.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; ChartingAsean analysis

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

45

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

46

Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South Chart 2.04a

Chart 2.04b

Chart 2.04c

Thailand Poverty Line

Number of poor people

Percent of Poor people

Baht/ month/ person

Million

Percentage of total population

3,500

25

50% 45%

3,000 40%

20 2,500

35% 30%

15

2,000

25% 1,500

20%

10

15%

1,000

10%

5 500

5% 0

0 '02

'04

'06

'08

'10

Legend color:

'12

Overall

0% '02

'04

Bangkok

'06

'08

Central

'10

North

'12

'02

North East

South

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conduChartingAseand every 2 years. For the missing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

Source: NESDB

47

www.ChartingAsean.com

Many countries in Asia and especially ASEAN, still have majority of their populations earning less than $2.00 a day Chart 2.05 – Poverty in the world, seleChartingAseand countries Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), Latest Congo, Dem. Rep.

95.2

Madagascar

92.6

Nigeria

84.5

Ethiopia

77.6

Bangladesh

76.5

Timor‐Leste

72.8

India

68.7

Lao PDR

66.0

Pakistan

60.2

Nepal

57.3

Cambodia

53.3

Indonesia

46.1

Vietnam

43.4

Philippines

41.5

South Africa

31.3

Egypt, Arab Rep.

15.4

Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7

Brazil

10.8

Iran, Islamic Rep.

8.0

Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

China

29.8

Poland

0.2

Bhutan

29.8

Slovak Republic

0.1

Sri Lanka

29.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

48

www.ChartingAsean.com

An average Thai is slightly poorer than an average Chinese but more than three times richer than an average Vietnamese Chart 2.06 – GNI per capita, seleChartingAseand countries

( ) = World rank

2013 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

186,950 136,770 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110

France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,…

Brunei Darussalam…

Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)

42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270 49

www.ChartingAsean.com

Using Purchasing Power Parity, Thailand’s rank improved to 82nd, with higher GNI per capita than China Chart 2.07 – GNI per capita, seleChartingAseand countries 2013 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)

Source: The World Bank

88,170 76,850 68,090 66,520 66,390 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630

( ) = World rank France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation…

23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 Timor‐Leste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760 50

www.ChartingAsean.com

Increasing trend in household income, expenditure and debt, but debt service year has reduced from the recent peak in 2004 Chart 2.10a – Monthly income per household

Chart 2.10c – Debt per household

Average, Baht

Average, Baht 23,236 17,787

18,660

2006

2007

25,403 134,900 104,571

14,963

2004

159,492

2011

2013

Chart 2.10b – Monthly expenditure per household

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

2011

2013

Chart 2.10d – Debt service year*

Average, Baht 3.3 2.8 17,403 12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

2011

19,259

2.3 1.9

2013

2004

2006

2007

2011

2.2

2013

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

51

Source: National Statistic Office survey; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

52

Headline CPI dipped into deflation zone in January

Chart 3.07a – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI

Chart 3.07b – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI by product

Percent

January 2015, percent

2.50%

Food away from home

4.1

Prepared food at home

3.9

Seasoning

2.00%

Core*

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

Head line

0.00%

3.0

Tobacco & alcohol

2.7

Meat

2.6

Medical care

1.3

Non alcoholic beverage

1.3

Housing & furnishing

1.3

Rice

0.9

Apparel and footware

0.8

Recreation & Education

0.7

Veg & fruit

-0.50%

-0.8

Eggs & milk -1.00% Aug-14 Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14 Dec-14

Jan-15

Transport & Commu

-2.1 -6.9

Energy -13.9 Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis

53 www.ChartingAsean.com

Along with Euro area and Singapore, Thailand is in deflation state Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change

Latest

2014*

Russia ‐ Dec

11.4

Indonesia ‐ Dec

7.7

8.4

Brazil ‐ Dec

6.4

6.4

India ‐ Dec

5.0

Hong Kong ‐ Dec

4.8

Pakistan ‐ Dec

6.3 7.2 4.4

4.3

Philippines ‐ Dec

2.7

Malaysia ‐ Dec

2.7

Japan ‐ Dec

7.2 4.2 3.1

2.4

Australia ‐ Q4

1.7

China ‐ Dec

1.5

2.8 2.5 2.1

Vietnam ‐ Jan

0.9

US ‐ Dec

0.8

South Korea ‐ Dec

0.8

1.3

Taiwan ‐ Dec

0.6

1.3

Singapore ‐ Dec

-0.2

Thailand ‐ Jan

-0.4

Euro Area ‐ Jan

-0.6

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

4.1 1.6

1.1 1.9 0.4

54 www.ChartingAsean.com

Deeper deflation at the producer level

Chart 3.09a – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI

Chart 3.09b – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI by product

Percent

January 2015, percent

3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% Aug-14 Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14 Dec-14

Jan-15

Mechinery Metal Livestocks Other manu goods Non‐metallic mineral Wood Transport equip Forestry Pulp & paper Food Leather & footware Electrical equip Textile Crop Basic metals Chemical Fishing Rubber & plastic Energy Petroleum products-35.0

2.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.7 -3.2 -7.0 -9.8 -21.4

55 Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

56

Big decrease in Loan to Deposit ratio signaling a cool down in economic activities Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,200 11,100 11,000

M-o-M

10,900

+1.0%

10,800 10,700

Y-o-Y

10,600

+5.0%

10,500 Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

97.7%

97.8%

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratio Percent 100% 97.5% 96.6%

96.0%

95.9%

97.9%

96.3%

97.2%

95.0%

96.4%

95.7%

95%

90% Dec-13 Jan-14

Feb-14 Mar-14

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14

Oct-14 Nov-14

57 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingAsean.com

Gross NPL continued to rise in absolute value in 2014, but remained unchanged as percentage of total loan Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Billion Baht

458

401

380 317

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

270

256

267

278

11YE

12YE

13YE

14YE

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding Percentage of Total Loans

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

2.16%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

14YE

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 58

Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingAsean.com

Banks’ capital ratio decreased but remained high in November

Chart 3.04 – Capital ratio of all commercial banks* % of risk assets, at year end

Month End 17.5%

15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

2014

15.7% 17.0%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3% 12.4%

16.5%

2013 16.0%

15.5%

15.0%

14.5% 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

59 www.ChartingAsean.com

Thailand’s real interest rate is almost zero Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Jan 31st 2015

─

3M risk‐free interest rates Russia

22.0

Brazil

=

Expected 2014 inflation*

Real interest rates

7.7

12.0

14.3 5.7

6.3

Pakistan

8.6

7.2

1.4

India

8.2

7.2

1.0

Indonesia

7.1

Vietnam

5.0

China

4.9

Malaysia

2.7

Philippines

2.2

South Korea

2.0

Thailand

2.0

Taiwan

0.4

Singapore

0.4

US

0.3

Japan

0.1

Euro Area

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

2.8

2.1

0.7

3.1

0.2

2.5 4.2

-2.1 0.7

1.3

0.1

1.9

0.9

Hong Kong

0.9

4.1

3.8

Australia

0.7

6.4

-0.4

1.3 4.4

-0.7

1.1

-1.4

1.6 2.8 0.4

-4.0

-2.7 -0.4

60

www.ChartingAsean.com

SET index increased 5.6% in January despite foreign sell off Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET index

Chart 3.06c – Change since Dec 31st 2013

Percent change from prior month, at month end

Percent, as of Jan 28th 2015

5.6% 3.9% 1.5%

Oct-14

Nov-14

India (BSE)

39.6%

Dec-14

36.1%

Indonesia (JSX)

23.3%

Thailand (SET)

22.6%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

-6.0%

Sep-14

56.4%

Pakistan (KSE)

0.6% -0.1%

Aug-14

China (SSEA)

Jan-15

19.0%

Germany (DAX)

12.1%

US (NAScomp)

11.0%

Taiwan (TWI)

10.4%

Japan (Nikkei 225)

9.2%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

9.1%

US (S&P 500)

8.3%

0.0

Singapore (STI)

7.9%

-1.0

France (CAC 40)

7.3%

-2.0

HK (Hang Seng)

6.7%

Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end

-3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 D-14 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

US (DJIA)

3.7%

Australia (All Ord.)

3.1%

UK (FTSE 100) S Korea (KOSPI) Malaysia (KLSE)

1.1% -2.5% -3.8%

61 Source: SET, The Economist; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

62

Lower budget and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in 2013

Chart 4.1 – Government budget and cash balance as percentage of nominal GDP Percent Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)

1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1% -0.3%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.1%-1.1%

-0.9%

-1.7% -2.0%

-2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

04FY

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY 63

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

Budget balance in 2014 was 30 billion Baht lower that in 2013 Chart 4.2 – Government budget balance Billion Baht Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 2,075

Revenue 1,109

1,751 1,241

1,390

1,455

1,498

2,158

100.0

2013

1,902 50.0

1,484 0.0

2014 0

-36

Budget balance

-50.0

110 -174

-75

-100

-27

-364

-414

-267

-100.0 -150.0

-1,109 -1,277

-1,280

-200.0 -1,629

Expenditure

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-1,930

-250.0 -2,489

-2,424

-300.0 -350.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

J F M A M J J A S O N D

64 www.ChartingAsean.com

Budget and Cash deficit worsened in 2014

Chart 4.3 – Government cash balance Billion Baht Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) 110 88

0

8

-27

-36 -45 -75

-95

-100 -96 -144 -174

-242 -266

-267 -297 -305

-364 -401

-414 -466

04FY

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

65 Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

www.ChartingAsean.com

Thailand’s budget deficit is expected to be around 2.5% of GDP, slightly higher than Indonesia’s Chart 4.4 – Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP 2014*, percent Hong Kong

0.8

South Korea Singapore

0.6 0.5

Russia Philippines

0.4 -0.6

Taiwan Indonesia Thailand

-1.4 -2.3 -2.5

Euro Area Australia

-2.5 -2.6

US China Malaysia

-2.8 -3.0 -3.6

India Vietnam

-4.3 -4.7

Brazil Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-5.5 -5.5 -8.2

66 www.ChartingAsean.com

A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2014

Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt

Chart 4.5b – Composition of Public debt

THB Trillion

As percentage of nominal GDP 50%

6.0

45%

5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises

40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35%

4.0

30% Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

3.0

25% 20%

2.0

15%

Direct Government debt

1.0

10%

Direct Government debt

5%

0.0 2010 8%

0%

2011

2012

2013

Nov-14

8%

7%

7%

6%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2010

External debt as percent of total

2011

2012

2013

Nov-14

67 www.ChartingAsean.com

Thailand’s public debt is not high compared to international standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est.

1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania

226 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s data

48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia

59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

68 www.ChartingAsean.com

CONTENT

Executive summary

Growth

• Thai economy grew 0.6% in 3Q14 ‐ On the expenditure side, Domestic demand drove the growth with Private Consumption the main driver ‐ On the production side, Transport, Financials and Utilities were the key drivers for the overall growth • Manufacturing and Agriculture production still trailed last year’s level • Private consumption retreated while Private Investment seems to recover • For full year 2014, Export grew in THB term, Import decreased. Tourist arrival dropped.

• Monetary easing with policy rate on downward trend while Fiscal spending recovered • Business and Industry were less pessimistic in December. Consumers were still pessimistic.

• The consensus projection is between 0.7%‐1.0% for 2014 and 3.9‐4.1% for 2015

Income distribution

• Unemployment rate remained low in December at 0.56%. Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest amongst leading economies • Thailand’s Income distribution is among the worst in Asia but there has been overall improvement over the past two decades, except for only in Bangkok • Overall poverty rate decrease in 2012, but increased in North, North East and South. Increasing household income, expenditure, debt and debt service year in the latest survey in 2013

Stability

• Headline Consumer Price Index as well as Producer Price Index dipped into deflation zone in January • Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but was still high. NPL as percentage of total loan remain unchanged in 2014. Liquidity improved.

• Bigger budget deficit in 2014. Public debt also increased but not too worrying just yet.

• Improved Balance of Payment, thanks to increased trade surplus. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated 9‐month in a row in January.

69

Improved Balance of Payment in 2014, thanks to increased trade surplus Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6

Chart 5.01 – Balance of Payment decomposition

29.8 24.6

Billion USD

17.0

09FY

31.3

10FY

11FY

6.0

6.7

12FY

13FY

14FY

Net service income & transfer

24.1

+

-10.7

-8.1

-7.5

-9.1

-10.4

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

-19.7

5.3 1.2 09FY

-1.2 -5.0 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

10FY

Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions

14FY

21.3 6.7

2.2

-2.6

-7.7

09FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

10FY

11FY

-15.4 12FY

13FY

14FY

70

www.ChartingAsean.com

Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge current account surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP*

Last 12 months, USD Billion

Singapore ‐ Q3

21.6%

Taiwan ‐ Q3

58.9

11.7%

South Korea ‐ Nov

65.0

5.8%

88.5

Malaysia ‐ Q3

4.2%

18.0

Vietnam ‐ 2013

4.2%

9.5

Philippines ‐ Sep

3.4%

Russia ‐ Q4

2.6%

Thailand ‐ Q3

2.6%

China ‐ Q3

2.4%

Euro Area ‐ Nov

2.4%

Hong Kong ‐ Q3 -2.0%

US ‐ Q3

-2.3%

Pakistan ‐ Q4

-2.6%

Indonesia ‐ Q3

-2.8%

Australia ‐ Q3

-3.1%

Source: The Economist

10.2 196.6 318.0 7.7

0.3%

India ‐ Q3

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

56.6

1.8%

Japan ‐ Nov

Brazil ‐ Dec

10.2

-4.0%

16.1 -23.4 -388.1 -3.5 -24.0 -42.9 -90.9

71 www.ChartingAsean.com

External debt increased slightly so far in 2014

Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP

37.0%

05YE

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

38.2%

38.8%

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

72 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingAsean.com

Structure of external debt does not change from end of last year

Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown

Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown

Private vs Public

Long‐Term vs Short‐Term

Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

13%

16%

20%

18%

Long term Short term

18%

50%

87%

84%

80%

82%

11YE

12YE

13YE

44%

43%

41%

55%

56%

57%

59%

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

82%

50%

10YE

45%

14/3Q

10YE

73 Source: Bank of Thailand

www.ChartingAsean.com

Capability to repay external debt deteriorated but not yet a concern as debt service ratio is low and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12a – International reserves

Chart 5.12b – Debt service ratio*

As % of ST external debt

Percent

7.6%

418% 370% 340% 312% 279%

272%

4.7%

4.6% 4.2%

4.0%

3.4%

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14/3Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14/3Q

74 www.ChartingAsean.com

Net International reserves decreased slightly in 2014 but still considered excessive Chart 5.13a – International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

190.2

180.2

2013

2014

9.1

9.5

2013

2014

154.1 55.9

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

2009

2010

Chart 5.13b – International reserves as number of months of import** 13.8

12.6 10.8

9.1 5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

9.9

7.9

2008

2009

2010

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

2011

2012

75 www.ChartingAsean.com

THB appreciated sharply in January

Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Chart 5.17b – Y‐o‐Y change in FX rate*

2007=100

Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Jan 31st 2015 EUR ‐ 37.3634 112.0

Baht appreciates

110.0 108.0 106.0

Oct-14

MXN ‐ 2.2205

11.7

100.0

SGD ‐ 24.436

6.8

98.0

VND ‐ 0.0015

6.7

96.0

IDR ‐ 2.7524

5.5

94.0 Jan-15

TWD ‐ 1.0407

4.9

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis

13.7

MYR ‐ 9.1883

+10% Jul-14

AUD ‐ 25.7537

102.0

Y‐o‐Y

Apr-14

15.8

GBP ‐ 49.6875

+1.6%

Jan-14

JPY ‐ 28.0095

104.0

M‐o‐M

Baht depreciates

20.5

10.2 9.1

CNY ‐ 5.2946

4.2

KRW ‐ 0.0299

2.7

USD ‐ 32.8677 INR ‐ 0.5621 PHP ‐ 0.7567

0.8 -0.4 -1.9

Baht depreciates

Baht appreciates 76 www.ChartingAsean.com