Charting Thailand’s Economy
MONTHLY
กันยายน 2558 ISSN: 2286-6132
Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, September 2015 (Thai) Publication Date: September 3rd, 2015 Number of pages: 69 DISCLAIMER
All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or tra form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwis prior permission of the publisher, ChartingASEAN™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but c guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations th ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith f primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a positio As such ChartingASEAN™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken ba information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
ASK THE EDITOR ChartingASEAN™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any comments about this report, you can contact the chief editor directly at editor@chartingasean.com.
ansmitted in any se, without the
cannot be hat from both n to guarantee. ased on any
questions and
+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m 6' 7+! ; # + 7 ++ ! 6 1!m5 / 1 7+ ; #/Æ6 1F 0 +(,m /8 $0 5 1# 8 F7#6 0 +n #+! m + + : 1 E1#0 0 Å1 ? +(,m /8 Å1 + ' 15 +! Ç
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Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · à ¨ ¨ Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É °
´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.5%
7.2%
7.3%
6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.2%
2.8% 1.7% 0.8%
0.9%
-0.7%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis
! + m + E 9 F1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 + / /8 8# 175! 10 5 ! + m + E + 8 F16 Æ +0 65$ 6 ( / 8 m! + 0 6 8 m!1? m$ 171# ) Å1m +6 /# 1n m + ?8 8 ! ? + +(,m F1 $5 C$ 5 F1 Å1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + DÆ #1' ;5? 1 :# m 5# ! 5? ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 2 m++0m + 9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6
Last 5 Quarters
! + m + E 9 ? /8F1
3.0%
2.8%
2.1% 0.9% 1.0%
! + m + E / Æ /# + >5 Æ8 ! Ç $ 2003 n 2014 /$ m! 3.4% F1C$ 10 /Æ; $ 10 0 9 8 2009 8 / Æ ! + m + E 5 m + E F1 2010 1! $ 6 0 m 5 6 /# 1n m +: Ç 1 ! ? +(,m / Æ0m! + 8mm!1 $ 0 5!m(2 70 1 ! (V) mV /mo!86+# ;5m+ / 8$ 71!m $ 9 F1 +0 6/ Æ6Æ 2011 /' F7#/ ! Ç / 0$0m + E $ + / /8mG: Ç1 ! # +G m /mo!8 E 8 9 F1 2012 E 6 n 6.5% 6' 7+! 2013 +(,m /8 E 2.8% 9+ #+! ;5m+ / m 6n 1m +2& 0 $1 8/ m + 0 F1C$ +0 6/ Æ6Æ $ 1 Æ 0 1n +0 6 +m? 2014 $ + 0Æ : Ç 1 ! F1 +0 6/ Æ6 Å1 #10 /' F7#/ ! Ç 2014 E # 0.7% 5 8! : Ç 1 ! $ 1 Æ F1 2015
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
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£µ ¦· µ¦¤¸nª nª¥ µ¦Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ Å ¦¤µ ¸É ° ¨³°» µ® ¦¦¤ µ¦ ¨· ¥´ nª µ¦Á · à ´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q15
´¥q 1.06b –
% m + 5 Æ81 5 $
% m + 5 Æ81 5
Hotel&Res
18.7
GDP
Construction
17.3
Transport
Financial
8.6
Hotel&Res
Transport
8.6
Financial
Other social
6.3
Trading
Health&Social
5.5
Construction
Private HH
5.5
RealEstate
Trading
3.7
Other social
GDP
2.8
Utilities
Utilities
2.7
Health&Social
RealEstate
2.5
Education
Education
2.2
PublicAdmin
PublicAdmin
1.3
Manufacture
-0.7
Fishing Mining Agriculture
-1.6 -3.9 -6.3
Private HH Fishing Mining Manufacture Agriculture Stat diff
Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis
°Š¤¾„š¸ÂÉ — ÂnÂŞÂœÂŁÂľÂ‡Ă Â„ÂŹÂ˜ÂŚ ! + m + E 9 + 8o m +;5 +0 6 5$ 6
– ÂžÂ§ÂƒÂĽÂ˛Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒÂ´ÂĽĂ‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠÂˇÂ–ÂˇÂ Âˇ 2Q15
$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 mo $ I 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2
F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 0 5 $ 9 0Æ ? ;5;5 F1o $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 + 0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5? m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 71 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 8 6' 1!m 1 2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Ă&#x2020; m +;5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 7+ 5 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; 0 ! 5?5$ 6 F1 +0 6 2 2015 7G1 # $ o E+ +0 5 +# 1 7 + 0 m + E 6 6 6$ 1o m( +0 ! + m + E 5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; o + m +0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E ? 9 F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 6$ 1o m( + 5 6 7m++0m +;5 8! n$ m + E
-0.3 -0.5 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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Œ¾¼Â&#x2039;n ¾¼Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x161;n°Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Ă&#x2030; ª¤¸ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Â?nÂŞÂĽÂ&#x201E;¾Œà Â&#x2DC;¡Â?Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x2DC;Œ¤¾ Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.08a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;¡Â&#x2013;¡ ¡Â&#x2013;n´Â&#x203A;¼´¤Â&#x160;m´¤ 2Q15
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.08b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5
X (services)
25.1
G
4.6
GDP X (services)
GDP
2.8
Discrpncy
I (capital)
2.5
C
I
1.9
G
C
1.5
I (capital)
M (services)
-0.2
M (goods)
M (goods)
-0.3
M (services)
X (goods)
-4.0
I (Inventory) X (goods)
Note: (*) C = m + + Eo mC1, I = m +5 / 1 $ Ă&#x2026;1 I (capital) = m +6 60/ 1 5 I (inventory) = m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? 6 1 # 75 G = m + + Eo o +!,, X = m +6$ m6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0+ 8 # mm +/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 ), M = m +1' ?# 6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0 Source: NESDB; ChartingASEAN analysis
ÂÂ&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; °Â&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; ÂťÂ&#x2014;
â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Â&#x17E;§Â&#x192;¼²Â&#x2122;Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;¡Â&#x2013;¡ ¡ 2Q15
! + m + E 9 # 1+ 8 $ 8 +0 65$ 6
0.8
F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Ă&#x2020; /# + ? + 8 $ 8 $ IDĂ&#x2020; n m1' 0 + m m!1 Ă&#x2026;1 9 Ă&#x2026;1m + ! m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 +0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5 ? m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? + 8 $ 8 $ I 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ă&#x2021; C FĂ&#x2021; 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ 8 $ 871 Ă&#x2020; I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ 8 $ 8 $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1
2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6
0.6
! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Ă&#x2020; + 8 $ 8
$ ? 9 + 0/ Ă&#x2020;0 m+ 8 $ 8 $ I 2.8 3.3 3.0 0.8
0.1 0.0 -0.2
C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 7+ 5 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; 0 ! 5? 5$ 6 F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6 7G1 # $ + 8 $ 8m +/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 0 ! + m + E 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; 7G1 # $ m +/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6
-2.5
0+ 8 $ 8m + / Ă&#x2020;8 /.) Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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´ ¸ ¨ ¨· £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ 뵃 ªnµ¦³ ´ ° ¸ n°
´¥q 1.10 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100)
2
1
1
194.2 182.9 174.6
170.0
161.1
177.6 181.6 175.7
1
167.7
152.1
1
1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
°Â&#x153;Â&#x2DC;n°Ă&#x2026;Â&#x17E;
Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2039;§¡Ă&#x160;¤¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A;
!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0
200.0
!C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0+ 0m +;5 F1 o 6 7m++0/ Ă&#x2020;6' !. n$ 1' Ă&#x2021; 71!m 00 5 $ 9 0Ă&#x2020; E 8FC# 2000 Ă&#x2026;1 , 1E 8F7#0 $ /$ m! 100 !C1 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1
180.0
160.0
140.0
2014 2015
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
F1+ 8 5 10 /Ă&#x2020;; $ 10 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0 0 m + E / / m 8m #1 8 $ 9 8 2009 / Ă&#x2020; m mV D ! 9+0&F1+ +(,m E5m 2011 / Ă&#x2020; m mV /mo!8 F1 + / 5 5$ 6 F1 2013 m 7 m +2& 0 0$6 / m + 0 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++08! ' Ă&#x2020; m $ + ! ? m$ 1 $ 6 /# 1n o C 5 ! ? +(,m
120.0
100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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°Â&#x2DC;¾ŽÂ&#x201E;ŒŒ¤ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;ÂŽÂ?n¤¸Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â&#x2DC;¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Ă Â&#x2014;¸¼ªÂ&#x201E;´Â&#x153;Â&#x2026;° Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x17E;§Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤¯ºÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.11b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , m. . 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5
Petroleum
29.2
Chemical
9.6
Vehicles
6.1
Chemical Electrical Electronic
Paper
3.7
Vehicles
Metal products
3.0
Metal products
Food & Bev
2.1
Apparel
Tobacco
2.0
Precision instru
Furniture
-0.2
Food & Bev
Apparel
-2.4
Paper
Rubber&Plastic
-2.5
Leather
Machineries
-2.8
Furniture
Mineral
-4.3
Rubber&Plastic
Wood products
-4.6
Basic Mat
Precision instru
-5.7
Petroleum
Leather
-5.8
Mineral
Electrical
-6.5
Textiles
Textiles
-6.9
Wood products
Basic Mat
-7.7
Office automate
Transport Equip Electronic Office automate
-11.0 -17.8 -27.6
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis
Machineries Tobacco Transport Equip -
Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x201E;n°Â&#x153;
â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x17E;§Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤¯ºÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ
m 1m$ 1, m. . 2015 13.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 7.6 5.8 5.1
!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1 8 m!1 m$ 171# C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1m$ 171#
3.2
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
2.9
F1 1m. . 6 7m++06$ 1F7.$0 ;5;5 5 5 m C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 8$ +mG 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! F1 10 .8. 6 7m++06$ 1F7.$0 ;5;5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; / C$ 1 0 + Ă&#x2020; FC# ::# 6 1 # 5 /+ 1 6& 5 8 181 & Ă&#x2026;1 #1
2.6 2.6 2.0 1.6 0.4 -3.2 -3.4 -8.4 -10.3 -10.5 -12.2
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°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ªnµ 1% Ä Á º° . . ´¥q 1.12a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n Ï´§³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£
´¥q 1.12b –
% ? m' 5! m +;5 /! Ç 70
% ? m' 5! m +;5
70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60%
Normal
58% Seasonally adjusted
56% 54% 52% 50% Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Jun-15
Jul-15
Rubber&Plastic Electronic Textiles Wood products Electrical Furniture Basic Mat Metal products Leather Office automate Food & Bev Precision instru Paper Chemical Vehicles Transport Equip Machineries Mineral Petroleum Tobacco Apparel
ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x2026;Â&#x152;nÂ&#x192;Ă?´§³Â&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤¯ºÂ&#x2014;Âą
/! Ă&#x2021; 70 , m. . 2015 89% 83% 80% 79% 78% 74% 69% 68% 66% 64% 59% 49% 48% 47%
! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 + 0? 6 7m++0 $ I ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 E 8+ 0 F1+ 8 5 7m 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 2 15$ 6 Ă&#x2026;1+ 8 6 7m++0
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; m $ 1% F1 1 m. . E 88 5 95 6 0 ! + m +FC# ) 6 / Ă&#x2020;6
00 # 86 1 # 5 /+ 1 6& 6$ 16 1 # + Ă&#x2020; 1 $ 7$0 0 ! + m +FC# ) ' Ă&#x2020; / Ă&#x2020;6
46% 45% 43% 42% 39% 31% 26% Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â&#x2DC;°Â&#x2DC;¾ŽÂ&#x201E;ŒŒ¤Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x161;ÂĽÂ&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â?Ă&#x201A;¨³°¼ŸnĂ Â&#x201E;º°Â?ΫĂ&#x160;Â&#x160;Â&#x161;o¾¼à ¤ Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.13 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x17E;§Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;ÂŻÂşÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ % m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 5$ 6
Vietnam Ͳ Aug China Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Pakistan Ͳ Jun India Ͳ Jun Australia Ͳ Q1 Japan Ͳ Jun
2
US Ͳ Jul
1.3
Euro Area Ͳ Jun
1.2
South Korea Ͳ Jun
1.2
Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
-1.6
Taiwan Ͳ Jul
-3.0
Brazil Ͳ Jun
-3.2
Philippines Ͳ Jun
-3.6
Russia Ͳ Jul Thailand Ͳ Jul Singapore Ͳ Jul Source: The Economist
-4.6 -5.3 -6.1
¤º°Ă&#x2030; Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â?Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;°ºĂ&#x2030;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2021;
9.0 6.0 5.8 4.4 3.9 3.8
!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1E5m ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1F1 m$ 171# ? !C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1 + / $ I ?# 0 55$ 6 + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
2.8
+ 8 5' ! 0 ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1 + / $ I m0 m 1# 8 ;5;5 6 7m++0? /8 Ă&#x2026;171 Ă&#x2020; F1 + / / Ă&#x2020;7 ! F1 15$ 6
2.3
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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Ä Á º° . . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ¥´ ® ´ªÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ´¥q 1.14a – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯
´¥q 1.1
(2010 = 100)
% m + 5 Æ81
125.0
NonͲre
120.0
2014 115.0
Se 110.0
2015
NonͲdu
105.0 100.0
SemiͲdu 95.0
Composite
90.0 85.0
Du 80.0
J
F
M
A
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted
Source: Bank of Thailand
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Â?Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x201E;n°Â&#x153; Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;ÂĽĂ Â&#x152;¥¾³Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2021;oÂľ
4b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼´¤Â&#x160;m´¤Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x153;ÂĽÂśĂ&#x201E;¢Â&#x2020;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160; Ă?´Â&#x2020;ÂłÂ?
1 5 m 1m$ 1, m. . 2015
sident
53.1
ervices
8.6
rables
4.0
rables
0.1
!C1 m + + Eo mC1 Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 C /Ă&#x2021; / m + Eo + Eo ? o mC1 E 8
' 1 2 m 5 & + m 75!m # m$ !C1 m +FC# $ 8 6 1 # 0$ /1 ( + m # 8 !C1 # 5 m Nielsenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s FMCG + 0 2m +FC# C Ă&#x2021; 95 + o/ $ I 5 + 0 2 m +FC# ::# o
+! + 1) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ă&#x2021; m Ă&#x2020; /1 ( + m # 88
# 5 m6 Ă&#x2020; / + Ă&#x2020; 1 $ 7$0 5 + 0 2 m +1' ?# 6 Ă&#x2020; / + Ă&#x2020; 1 $ 7$0) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ă&#x2021; /1 ( + m # 8 8 ' 71$ 8+n81 &1 !Ă&#x2020; +n !m+8 181 & 5 +n81 & C 9 2 C8&) !C1 m +FC# $ 8o + m + ( + m # 8 o ( 0 5 $ 9 0Ă&#x2020; m5 $0E+ +0 5 o! + 5 8 ? 8 + m +o
01 0?16$ ) 5 !C1 m +FC# $ 8? 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 $ C ( + m # 8 ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 $ C ) ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2010 Ă&#x2026;1 , 1 0 m + ;8 9+$ Ă&#x2026;1+ 8 1 5 $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Ă&#x2020; +! V m 5 5#
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
Index
rables
-2.1
F1 1m. . m + + Eo o mC18! 7 ! E 8 >9 F16 1 # /1
-13.0
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µ¦¨ » £µ Á° Á¦·¤É ¢ºÊ ´ª
´¥q 1.15a – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯
´¥q 1.15b
(2010 = 100)
% m + 5 Æ81
121.0
Domestic M (2010
120.0
2014 119.0
2015
C p
118.0
117.0
Constructio
116.0
Import (201 115.0
Domestic Sa
114.0
J
F
M
A
M
J
Note: (*) figures are 1-month delayed
Source: Bank of Thailand
J
A
S
O
N
D
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼´¤Â&#x160;m´¤Â&#x192;´¼§Â&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;ÂŹĂ?´Â&#x2020;ÂłÂ?
!C1 m +5 / 1o mC1
5 m 1m$ 1, m. . 2015
Machinery sales* prices, Baht)
13.8
Composite Index
0.5
onstruction Area permitted (sqm)
0.4
Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 C /Ă&#x2021; / m +5 / 1o mC1 !C1 + m # 8 5 & + m # m$ 9 1Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; #+! 1 . m$ 6+# /! Ă&#x2020; + / !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 !6 m$ 6+# F1 + / m + 1' ?# 6 1 # / 1 2 + / Ă&#x2020; 2553 + 0 2m + ' 71$ 8 + Ă&#x2020; !m+ 5 m+2&F1 + / 2 + / Ă&#x2020; 2553 5 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8+n81 & 9 Ă&#x2020; m +5 / 1F1 + / $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Ă&#x2020; +! V m 5 5 >5 Ă&#x2020;8 5 Ă&#x2020; 1/ Ă&#x2020; 3 1 8m #19 1Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020;+! 1 . m$ 6+# DĂ&#x2020; >5 Ă&#x2020;8 5 Ă&#x2020; 1/ Ă&#x2020; 9 1 ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2553 Ă&#x2026;1 , 1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
on Material Sales Index
of Capital Goods 0 prices, Baht)
-0.2
-6.0
6' 7+! F1 1m Ă&#x2021; +5 / 1 6 6!.. 2: Ă&#x2021; 1 ! E 8 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 + Ă&#x2020; !m+F1 + / 0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 $+n81 & 9 Ă&#x2020; m +9 2 C8&DĂ&#x2020; $ 1?# m Ă&#x2020;8 1 Ă&#x2020; m! - +m ?1 5Gm 8! 7 !
c Commercial Car -12.8 ales Index
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µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °
´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª 5# 1 55 +&67+!,)
´¥§ º 14,000
14,416 12,000
12,899
12,728 10,000
9,112
8,000
8,547
6,000
4,853
4,000
2,000
2,474
0
08FY
Source: BOT
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
°Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸
m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + /
Â&#x203A;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2013;¤Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;´Â&#x192;Â&#x2014;Â?Â&#x2122;.²£¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A;
2014
m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / (Foreign Direct Investment : FDI) Ă&#x2026;1- +m++0m +5 / 1/ Ă&#x2020;; #5 / 1/ Ă&#x2020;0n 1 Ă&#x2020; , 1 m $ + / 0 $ - +m / Ă&#x2020;0n 1 Ă&#x2020; , 1F1 + / + m # 8 15 / 1F1/ 1 + 17 #1 (Equity capital) DĂ&#x2020; 70 8n m +5 / 1 # 8m +n 7 #1/ Ă&#x2020;06 /- Ă&#x160;+$ 0F1m + + 7 + m m + ! Ă&#x2021; $+# 85 10 ? 1Ă&#x2021; m +m #8 0+ 7 $ + (!/F1 + 5 m' +/ Ă&#x2020;1' m5! 0 5 / 1 ! /' E 8- /. C +& D# 8 6 0 5 $ m +5 / 1E 8 + m /.+ 8 C +& ? 6 0 5 $ 6 60+ 8 1F1 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +5 / 1E 8 + m /. 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 0 mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 1 0 ?
2015
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ · · ø °Å°Â Á ° ¸
´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ 9!15# 1 /
1,023
648 525 396 236
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
14FY
Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;ÂŤÂźÂ&#x153;ÂĽrĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Â&#x161;¸Â&#x;Ă&#x2030; nÂľÂ&#x153;¤¾
Â&#x153;ÂŹÂśÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161;œ œĂ&#x201A;ÂŞÂŤÂ&#x153;¡Ă&#x201E;ÂŻĂ&#x2020;ÂŻ 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1E 8 + m /.6 /- /Ă&#x2020; 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 ( E m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / / Ă&#x2020;6 /# 1F16n m + 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 (6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 m
2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 0 1 8 0 $ Ă&#x2026;1E + m + / Ă&#x2020;0 ; #n 7 #1 Ă&#x2026;1C $ + / 0$1 # 8m $ 10% ? / 1
/ 81
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0 5 $ m +5 / 1E 8 + m /./ Ă&#x2020;? +! 6 /- E / Ă&#x2026;1 18&F1C$ / Ă&#x2020;; $ 10 ? 230
14
2014/5M
2015/5M
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Â?¸Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2030; Âťn Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤÂ&#x161;¸¤Ă&#x2030; ¾¨Â&#x160;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x2DC;ÂŚÂ&#x160;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x161;¼¤¾Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; ÂťÂ&#x2014;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2DC;nÂŚ °¼nÂľÂ&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.16 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; £§Â&#x2020;m´Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2020;ÂĽÂ&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼§Â&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2013;¤Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;´Â&#x192;Â&#x2014;Â?Â&#x2122;.Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;ÂŹÂŁÂłÂ&#x2020;ÂĽĂ&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´¼³Â&#x153;ÂŹÂśÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161; 6! 6$ 1 m0 5 $ 5 / 1/! Ă&#x2021; 70
11%
Others
27%
4% 10%
USA ANIEs ASEAN Europe
2% 7% 8%
7% 10%
21%
2
2% 6% 10%
1
7%
7
7%
1
1 58%
Japan
49%
54%
2
11FY
12FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis
13FY
14
Œ³¼³Ž¨´Â&#x160;´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;¨Â&#x2014;Â&#x153;o°¼¨Â&#x160;
Â&#x161;œ œĂ&#x201A;ÂŞÂŤÂ&#x153;¡Ă&#x201E;ÂŻĂ&#x2020;ÂŻ 6! 6$ 1m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / 8m + 8 + /
1%
6! 6$ 1? 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1 m $ + / / Ă&#x2020;n m 61 ? +! 6 /- 9 ( m 2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 $ 0+ 8 + / / Ă&#x2020;0 8$ +mG ! 5?/ Ă&#x2020; 6 1!1Ă&#x2021; 0 m +1! DĂ&#x2039;Ă&#x2021; F1E + m +/ Ă&#x2020;0 ; #n 7 #1 $ C m 171 Ă&#x2020; 6!.C
21%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
25% 34%
3%
7% 0% 7%
2% 5%
. Ă&#x2020; $ 1 Ă&#x2026;1 + / / Ă&#x2020;0 5 / 1E 8 + F1 /80 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 0# $ F1 5$ 6 0 6! 6$ 15 5
38%
29%
4FY
2015/5M
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20
Â&#x2021;°Â&#x153;Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;¤¡à Â&#x153;¸¼¤à Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x153;¸à Â&#x2014;¸¼ªĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;¨n¤°Â´Â&#x160;Ž¾Œ¡¤Â&#x161;Œ´¥¼rÂ&#x161;¸à Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2DC;¡Â?
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.16a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¯³Â&#x2030;´¼œ£Â&#x2122;¼³ ¤q
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.16b
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 6 1 +m? 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81
Condo unit registered
13.0
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
Value of land transaction
-2.9
-9.1
-10.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
-19.5
-38.2
Â?Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x2014;oĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160;
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¯³Â&#x2030;´¼œ£Â&#x2122;¼³ ¤q
5 m 1m$ 1, 0 .8. 2015
!C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !. ! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.F1C$ #1 n 1 ! !1 / 8 m! + 8 $ 8 8 m!1F1C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# ! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.F1C$ 15$ 6 / 8 m! 1m$ 171#
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
1E 0 1 80 Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 8 F1m5 $0 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020; E #F1 1 Ă&#x2021; E 80 5 $ m +D Ă&#x2021; ? 8/ Ă&#x2020; 1 5 6 Ă&#x2020; m$ 6+# 7 ! 5# m $ 10% F1C$ + Ă&#x2020; +m
5.6
17.2
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ ¸É¨ ¨ ¤µ ªnµ
´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´
´¥q 5.03b
7 1 +m, 9!15# 1 /
7 1 +m, 9!1 140
5,000 4,500
120 4,000 100
3,500 3,000 2014 2,500
80
2015 -3.4%
-7.4%
60
2,000 1,500
-4.7%
40
1,000 20
500 0
0
-500
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
-20
Expo
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂnÂ&#x160;°°Â&#x201E;
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;º§Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2020;n´Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2020;m´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2013;¯§§´¼qÂŹÂÂĽÂłÂ&#x2019;Âą
15# 1 55 +&67+!,)
%
ort
5m + # Ă&#x2026;1?# 0 5m + # + 7 $ + / / Ă&#x2020; #+! mm+0 5m m+ m+ /+ m + 5! ! /' F1+ 6n /Ă&#x2020; 6 n - +m++0m + 5 Ă&#x2020; 18# 86 1 # m ? +(,m ? + C 2 !m+ /8 1 m + C 2 !m+ 7+ 5 Ă&#x2020; 18# 86 1 # m1 m + C 2 !m+ ?# 0 F1+ C 2 !m+ /8 F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Ă&#x2020; E 8 + 5 06 1 # / m+ 8m +
5m + # F1+ 1 Ă&#x2021; 0$ /$ m! F1+ / Ă&#x2020; 6 F1C +& ?
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 1 Ă&#x2020; m0 - ' 1 2/ Ă&#x2020; $ m!1F1 + 8m + C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? 5m + # # m$m +1' 0 5 $ m +6$ m6 1 # 5 # 80 5 $ m +1' ?# 6 1 #
-8.6%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
5m + # ?1 Ă&#x2021; 6 7 75!m mm +1' ?# / Ă&#x2020;5 5 0 mm $ m +6$ m
â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
Import
=
Trade balance
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Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂnÂ&#x160;°°Â&#x201E;¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160; 3.4% Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; 7 Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160; 2015 Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;ÂĽ ¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2021;o¾à Â&#x201E;ÂŹÂ&#x2DC;ÂŚĂ Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x2DC;´ªÂ&#x152;Âť Â&#x2014;Ž¨´Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.05a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;Â&#x2014;´£Â&#x192;§ºmÂŁÂŹÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.05b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 7 1 +m? 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5
Total export Optical instru Jewellery Photo instru Machinery Other manufacturing Automotive Forestry Metal Electrical Electronics Agro products Apparels Footware Agriculture Toiletries Furniture Aircrafts PetroͲchemical Other export Fishery Petroleum Chemicals ReͲexports Mining
-3.4 12.4 6.4 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -3.5 -5.9 -6.7 -6.7 -7.0 -8.9 -9.0 -9.6 -14.3 -14.4 -19.2 -20.3 -27.7 -52.0
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Total export Automotive Machinery Jewellery Optical instru Other manufacturing Photo instru Metal Forestry Electrical Footware ReͲexports Furniture Electronics Toiletries Aircrafts Fishery Apparels Mining Other export Agro products Agriculture PetroͲchemical Chemicals Petroleum
ÂĽÂ&#x17E;¡ Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;Œà ¨¸¼¤Ă&#x201A;¨³à Â&#x2021;¤¸Œª¤Â&#x161;´Ă&#x160;Â&#x160; Â&#x17E;§Â&#x192;¼²Â&#x2122;Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;
$ ? m +6$ m+ 0/ Ă&#x2020;0 m6 1 # $ I -3.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? m +6$ mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 1 0 ? C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ 1 /? m +6$ mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# C +& # 1? 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E ? m +6$ mE 8+ 0 / Ă&#x2020;0 mm +6$ m 0m5 $06 1 # $ I
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +6$ m5 5 3.4% F1 7 1 +m? 2015 E 8 E + 5 80 5 0 + 0/! Ă&#x2021; 6 1 # m( + Ă&#x2026;1 ! >
75!m
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Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂnÂ&#x160;°°Â&#x201E;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;ÂŚÂźÂ&#x17E;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â?ÂľÂ&#x161;ÂŽÂ&#x2014;Â&#x2DC;´ªĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x201E;º°Â?Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2DC;¨¾Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x201E;Ă ÂŞoÂ&#x153;Â&#x153;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.07a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;Â&#x2014;´£Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ?§´¤Â&#x2122;´Â&#x2030;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5
6! 6$ 1 $ m +6$ m+ 0F1+ 1 /
% m + 5 áŞ&#x203A; 7.3 (Trillion)
áŞ&#x203A; 6.1
áŞ&#x203A; 6.7
áŞ&#x203A; 7.1
áŞ&#x203A; 6.9
Rest of the world
18.1
17.4
18.1
16.7
16.5
Middle East
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
5.2
Japan
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
9.6
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
10.3
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
12.0
20.4
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.3
100% =
EU NAFTA East Asia ex-Japan
ASEAN
23.0
24.3
Rest of
25.9
24.6
26.1
East Asi
M 10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
14FY
Â&#x153;¾¢Â&#x2DC;oÂľ
5.07b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;
5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 7 1 +m? 2015 NAFTA
7.2%
ASEAN
-3.3%
f the world
-3.5%
C +& 6 0 5 $ m +6$ m (F1+ 1 /) $ 6! 6$ 1 0 + / 5 8/ C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? m +6$ m6 $ $5 5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +6$ mF1+ 1 /7 ! F1 m / m 5 8m #1 1 : #
Japan
-5.7%
EU
-6.2%
a ex Japan
-7.0%
Middle East
5 8/ m +6$ m
-13.8%
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Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x153;Ă&#x17D;¾à Â&#x2026;o¾¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160; 7% Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; 7 Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160; 2015 Â¾à ŽÂ&#x2DC;Ž ¥¨´Â&#x160;Â&#x160;ÂľÂ&#x153;Â&#x161;¸¨Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.09a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x203A;Ă?´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´Â&#x2014;´£Â&#x192;§ºmÂŁÂŹÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.09b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 7 1 +m? 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $
Total import
Others
7.7
Consumer goods
5.0
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-0.2
Capital goods
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Total imp
-7.4
-4.2
-33.3
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Oth
Consumer goo
Intermediate Ͳ Non f
Capital goo
Intermediate Ͳ F
Ž¨´Â&#x201E;¤¾Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x153;Ă&#x17D;¾à Â&#x2026;oÂľ
Â&#x17E;§Â&#x192;¼²Â&#x2122;Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x203A;Ă?´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´
? m +1' ?# + 0/ Ă&#x2020;0 m6 1 # $ I
ort
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? m +1' ?# F1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ?
-7.4
ers
0.6
ods
0.4
uel
-0.1
ods
uel
C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1? 0 5 $ m +1' ?# F1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 71# C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E E 8+ 0 / Ă&#x2020;0 ;50 mm + E F1m5 $06 1 # $ I
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +1' ?# 5 5 7% F1 7 1 +m? 2015 6 7 75!m0 mm +1' ?# 95! 1/ Ă&#x2020;5 5 0 m
-1.0
-7.3
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¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2021;oÂľÂ&#x2026;´Ă&#x160;Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;¨¾Â&#x160;Ă&#x201A;¨³Â¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2021;oÂľÂ&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;¤¸ÂÂ&#x2014;´ ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;ÂÂźÂ&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E;Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂŹÂłÂ&#x2013;ÂŹmŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x203A;Ă?´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´ 6! 6$ 1 $ m +1' ?# + 0F1+ 1 / 100% =
ŃŽ 5.9
ŃŽ 7.0
ŃŽ 7.8
ŃŽ 7.7
Others
10.2
12.4
11.4
12.2
Capital goods
20.9
21.3
24.4
23.3
Intermediate â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Non-Fuel
44.0
40.0
37.5
35.7
Intermediate - Fuel
17.4
18.9
18.9
20.8
Consumer goods
7.5
7.5
7.8
8.0
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
ŃŽ 7.4
ŃŽ 4.0
8.1
8.8
(Trillion)
6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# 24.2
25.1
0 5 $ m +1' ?# (F1+ 1 /) $ 06! 6$ 1 0 5!m(2 / +(,m ? m5 0$ 6 1 #
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
6 1 # ?!1Ă&#x2021; m5 5 6 1 # / 10 6! 6$ 16 0 m? 1Ă&#x2021; 38.3
40.7
20.8
15.8
8.7
9.6
14FY
15/7MO
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Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 30% Ä 7 Á º° ¦
´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ 5# 1 +! Ç
26.5
CAGR
10.6%
24.8 22.4 19.2 15.9
14.5 11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Source: Department of Tourism
¤¯Â&#x2013;¥´¤Ã&#x201A;Â&#x2013;¹¯Â&#x203A;
' 1 11!m/$ / 8Ã&#x2020;
3.0
C +& D# 80 6 ' 1 1 +! Ã&#x2021; F1m + ?# 0 F1 + / /8? 1!m/$ / Ã&#x2020;8 $ C + 8 C +& ? 0 6 8 6 60+ 8 1? ! !1 5 m$ 171# + 0 5E 8m+0m +/$ / Ã&#x2020;8 E 8FC# ?# 0 5 m 6' 1!m 1 + 1 ?# 0
2015 2.5
2.0
2014 1.5
m + 5 Ã&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
' 1 11!m/$ / Ã&#x2020;8 9 0Ã&#x2020; ? 1Ã&#x2021; 30% F1 7 1 +m 8$ +mG 75! m 7 m +2&+ / Ã&#x2020;+ C + 6 & Ã&#x2026;1 #/Ã&#x2020; 1 E1#0m + ?# 0 ? 1!m/$ / Ã&#x2020;8 5 5
1.0
0.5
0.0
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Â&#x153;´Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;n°Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Ă&#x2030; ÂŞÂ&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2039;¸ Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;¨³¤¾à ¨à Â&#x17D;¸¼à Â&#x2026;o¾¤¾à ¥¡¤Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153;¤¾Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;¸Ă&#x2030;ÂÂťÂ&#x2014;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.19a
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.19b
Â&#x160;Ă?´Â&#x203A;ŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;ÂĽÂłĂ&#x2039;Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´£´Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x203A;ÂłÂ&#x192;Â&#x2122;mÂŻÂ&#x2030;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;¤Š Ă&#x192;Â&#x153;mÂ&#x2030;Â&#x2014;´£³Â?Â&#x152;´Â&#x2014;Âś
10 ÂŻÂłÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x153;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122; £´Â&#x192;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;ÂŹÂşÂ&#x2013;Ă&#x201A;£šĂ&#x160;ÂŻĂ&#x201A;Â&#x2122;¡¤Â&#x153;Â&#x192;
6! 6$ 1? /! Ă&#x2021; 70
7 1 +m 2015, 9!1
Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.6 5.3
27.9
51.2
14.7 5.0
26.5
53.8
13.8 4.8
25.3
56.0
11.9
11.9
China
4.4
4.5
Malaysia
23.8
59.9
24.8
58.8
Hong Kong Taiwan
155.2
Korea
141.6
Vietnam
131.6
Singapore
131.3
Japan
112.1
India USA 10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis
191.8
95.2 57.6
Â&#x153;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Â&#x161;¸Â&#x;Ă&#x2030; nÂľÂ&#x153;¤¾Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160;
Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;£¡Â&#x160;Ă?´Â&#x203A;ŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´£´Â&#x2122;mÂŻÂ&#x2030;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;¤ŠĂ&#x201A; œĂ&#x160;ÂŁ Â&#x192;ÂłÂ&#x153;Â&#x152;mŠÂ&#x2030;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;¡¤ŠÂ&#x192;ÂłÂ&#x203A;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â?dÂ&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;Ă&#x192;§nŠ
+! Ă&#x2021; 2,458.2 765.8
' 1 11!m/$ / 8Ă&#x2020; 06!.C 6! 6$ 1? 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 06!.C m ' 1 1 +! Ă&#x2021; F1 m + ?# 0 /$ / Ă&#x2020;8 /! Ă&#x2021; 70
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
8
6! 6$ 11!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 06!.C 0$ 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 0 m1!mF1 + 8 7m 75! 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 m C 8 !1 m ?# 0 Ă&#x2026;1 6! 6$ 16 / Ă&#x2020;6 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; + Ă&#x2020; 8I F1+ 8 7m 75! 6' 7+! F1 11 Ă&#x2021; !m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 m 1 5 0 5 D 8 ?# 0 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 0 m / Ă&#x2020;6
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ ¨ °¸ Ä Á º° . . ¨³¥´ °¥¼n 뵃 ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70
1
1.83
1
1.51
1.49 1.38
1
1.38
0
1.04 0.84 0.68
0.66
0
0.72
0
0
0 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
ÂŞnÂľ 1% ! + m + $ 1
' 1 2 mm +m +6' + o m +/' 1? + C m+ DĂ&#x2020; 6' 1!m 16n 7$ C Ă&#x2026;1; # ' 1 1m +6' + 5 + 0 5;5 ! + m + $ 1 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 1 7 + # 8 ' 1 1m' 5! + 1 ; # $ 1 70 8n
5/ Ă&#x2020;0 8 15 ?1 Ă&#x2021; 5 F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + 0 5!m(2 8$ 71 Ă&#x2020; 8$ F ! $ 1 Ă&#x2021; 0$ #/' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' $ #7 1 60! + 17+ + m + ++ F1 + 7 $ 30 !1 m$ 1 !16!0o (2& 0$ #/ ' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' 5 0$ #7 1/' F1+ 7 $ 30 !1m$ 1 !1 6!0o (2& $9+# 0/ Ă&#x2020; /' 1F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + m' 5! + 1+ 0 70 8n
5/ m 1/ Ă&#x2020;0 8 15 ?1 Ă&#x2021; F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + Ă&#x2026;1; # 8 $F1m' 5! + 1 ! !1 7+ Ă&#x2026;1; #n m ! ' 1m 8 $F1 + o/m' 5! + 1 / Ă&#x2020;+ V m 5
Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2039;§¡Ă&#x160;¤¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A;
1.40
1.20
1.00
2015
0.80
0.60
2014
0.40
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
! + m + $ 15 5 mF1 1m. . 5 8! 8 $ ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 1%
0.20
0.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D
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°´Â&#x2DC;ÂŚÂľÂ&#x201E;¾ŒªnÂľÂ&#x160;Â&#x160;ÂľÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤĂ&#x2026;Â&#x161;ÂĽÂ&#x2DC;Ă&#x17D;ÂľĂ&#x2030; ¤¾Â&#x201E;à ¤º°Ă&#x2030; Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â?Â&#x17E;ÂŚÂł Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 2.09 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Â&#x192;´¼Šm´Â&#x2030;Â&#x2030;´Â&#x203A;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ&#x2014;m´Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2C6; mm +6' + 5$ 6 , % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ă&#x2021; 70
Thailand Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jun
0.8 2.0 3.1
Hong Kong Ͳ Jul
3.3
Japan Ͳ Jul
3.3
Vietnam Ͳ 2014
3.4
Taiwan Ͳ Jul
3.7
South Korea Ͳ Jul
3.7
China Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2013
4.0 4.9
US Ͳ Jul
5.3
Russia Ͳ Jul
5.3
Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Pakistan Ͳ 2014 Australia Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Q2 Brazil Ͳ Jul Euro Area Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist
5.8 6.0 6.3 6.4
7
³à Â&#x161;°ºĂ&#x2030;Â&#x153;
! + m + $ 1F1 $5 + / m + + 8 / 8 ! + m + $ 1F1 + / $ I + + 0 E 81 86 + E E10 6 &
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
! + m + $ 1F1 + / /8 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! + / 1Ă&#x2020; I 5# 8! n $ ' Ă&#x2020; / Ă&#x2020;6 F1?2 / Ă&#x2020;F1 + / 9!41 5# 0 ! + m + $ 1 $ 1?# 6 E 8 >9 F18 E+ED1
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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° Á ¸Ê ¥Ä ¨µ ¸ÄÉ Á º° . .
´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤ .
´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Aug-15
Sep-14
Sep-14
´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q
´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
Max
2.50%
Min Sep-14
0.00% Aug-15
Sep-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
Source: Bank of Thailand
! + m 8Ă&#x2021;
Â&#x2014;¼´Â&#x2013;ÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x153;¡Ă&#x2039;¤Â&#x201E;n´£Â&#x2020;šÂ&#x203A; BIBOR* 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Aug-15
Â&#x2014;¼´Â&#x2013;ÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x153;¡Ă&#x2039;¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;§n Â&#x192; Âť Â&#x2020;n´Â&#x152;ÂłÂ&#x203A; Ă&#x2039; Â&#x2013;¡ Â&#x161;. ´Â&#x2022;ÂśÂ&#x152;¤q 10.00%
Max 7.50%
Min 5.00%
C +& 6 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 1E8 8? - /. ( ! +
m 8Ă&#x2021; D Ă&#x2021; 19!1- ! + 1 !1) F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6
C +& 6 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; F1 5 m #80 1 !1+ 7 $ -1 + F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& D 6 ! +
m 8Ă&#x2021; 1< m 0/+!98&F1-1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Ă&#x2020; 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! +
m 8Ă&#x2021; 1m #5m # C!1Ă&#x2021; F1-1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Ă&#x2020; 6
F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
# 8 + m
!1 m 1 E1#0m + E / +(,m / Ă&#x2020; 0$ 1!m 5 m + ?$ m!15
$ 1? + / 1Ă&#x2020; I /' F7#F1 10 Ă&#x2021; m +5
m 8Ă&#x2021; 1E8 8 5# n 6 +! Ă&#x2021; + 0m!1 0.5% m +5 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; n Ă&#x2026;1m +FC# 1E8 8m + 1F1m + m+ #1 +(,m 7+ m1!871 Ă&#x2020; 0 # $
2 m++0m +1E8 8m + 10 $ m + E +(,m 8! # m +m +m+ #1 8$ +mG ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 1E8 8 / Ă&#x2020; 1.5% F1 ! !1 ?# Fm5# 18&0 m 5# 5 ' m! m +
' 1 11E8 85 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 9 Ă&#x2020; m+ 1# +(,m F1 1
2.50% 0.00% Aug-15 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨Á · n µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °
´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2015 0
D
J
F
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
M
A
M
J
J
A
Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160;
+ 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 +!, 58! 0 098 8 0 +$ m + m $ 8 + 0 2 9 Ă&#x2020; m +m+ #1 +(,m E 8F1C$ 7 1/ Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 0 + 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 12% 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? /Ă&#x2020; 5#
2014
m +FC# $ 8o +!,6 0 +nm+ #1m + E / +(,m # $ 7+ 8. m # 1mG 18! m + 5! DĂ&#x2020; + # F1 + Ă&#x2020; 5 + 0 2m!1 m/
S
O
N
D Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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£µ »¦ · ¨³°» µ® ¦¦¤¤° è Ä Â n¦µo ¥¥· É ¹Ê Ä Á ´¥q 1.18a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³Ê º¥ ¶ *
´¥q 1.18b
100
200
Better
Better
50
100
52.4
49.4
50.3
49.1
46.4
45.2
88.9
Worse
87
Worse
0
0 Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Feb-15
Mar
Note: (*) Below is t Index = 1 Index > 1 Index < 1
Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;.Â&#x2021;.
0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; - +m
â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x2020;Š´£Ă&#x201A;Â&#x152;šĂ&#x160;ÂŻÂŁÂłĂ&#x160;Â&#x203A;¢´Â&#x2020;ÂŻÂşÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ**
7.7
r-15
86.2
85.4
84.0
83.0
C +& 6 !C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; o - +m ! /' E 8m +6' + ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 mm5 $0 ! 8$ 1,500 + 8 E 8 m +6' + + 0Ă&#x2020; 6$ 6 n 0F1C$ 6! 7&6 /# 8? 1/ Ă&#x2020;6' + 5 + + 0 + 0 5;5F16! 7&/Ă&#x2020; 3 ? 1n! !C1 0 $ /$ m! 50 70 8n 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; / - +m /+ ! ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ă&#x2021; 0 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) !C1 0 $ 0 mm $ 50 70 8n 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; / - +m ?1 Ă&#x2021; ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ă&#x2021; 0 0 mm $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$ 5 ) !C1 0 $ 1# 8m $ 50 70 8n 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; / - +m 8$ ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ă&#x2021; 0 1# 8m $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) C +& 6 !C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; o 6 7m++0 ! /' E 8 6o 6 7m++0 7$ + / /8 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0 6o 9 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020; 0$ $
!C1 8 $F1+ ! 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++0 0 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0$0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 7+ 8 $F16o 9/+ ! F1+ ! 0 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 6 m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0 6o 9 ?1 Ă&#x2021; 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020;
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
the interpretation of the index: 00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable 00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved 00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
o - +m 5 6 7m++00 E5mF1 $+# 88 Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; F1 1m. .
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Â&#x;ÂźÂ?o Œ¡Ă&#x192;ÂŁÂ&#x2021;¤°Â&#x160;Ă&#x192;¨Â&#x201E;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x160;nÂŚÂľo ¼¤¾Â&#x201E;¼¡Â&#x160;Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;.Â&#x2021;. Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.17 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x2020;Š´£Ă&#x201A;Â&#x152;šĂ&#x160;ÂŻÂŁÂłÂ&#x203A; Ă&#x160; Â&#x17E;ÂťnÂ&#x153;ÂĽÂśĂ&#x201E;¢Â&#x2020; 100
100
Overall
On job
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
(*) 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0-100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I ?1 Ă&#x2021; 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0$ 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 F$ 1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$ Source: Ministry of Commerce
!C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; ; # + Eo
Better
! /' E 8m+ /+ 9 2 C8& m 6 n 0 ! 8$ m + C C1/! Ă&#x2020; + / 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0-100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2&
# 11!1Ă&#x2021; I ?1 Ă&#x2021; 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0$ 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 $F1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $ F1 ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2&
# 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 8$5 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! 0$
Worse
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
100
On future income
50
; # + Eo 0 E5mF1 $+# 80 m8 Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; F1 1m. . E 8
!C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; ; # + Eo 75!m5 5 m 38.9 Ă&#x2026;1 33.7 F1?2 / Ă&#x2020; !C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; # 1m +7 1 5 + 8 #F1 1 mG5 5 5 8 $ 'Ă&#x2020; m $ ! / Ă&#x2020; 50
11 0 Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · à ° Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ nµ ³ ¼ ¦´ ¨ ¦³Á · ¸¦É µ ¦³ r ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·
´¥q 1.03b –
6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $
6' 7+! 2016, % m + 6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
NESDB The Economist poll
FPO
4.00
3.50
3.00
BOT 2.50
2.00 J-15
F-15
M-15
A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
J-15
F-15
M-1
Foreca
¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;°¸Â&#x201E;Ž¨´Â&#x160;Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Ă ÂŽÂ&#x2DC;ÂťÂ&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x2013;r
Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2022;qÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;¡Â&#x2013;¡ ¡
5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $
15
+ 0 2m +2&m + E ? 9
4.00
m + + 0 2m +2& ! + m + E / Ă&#x2020; /# + ? 9 F1 ! !1 5 $ E 871$ 8 1 $ I C$ 1 -1 + 7$ + / /8 (BOT) 6o 9!41&) (NESDB) 6' 1!m 1 +(,m m + 5! (FPO) 5 E955&? 1 86 + E E1 0 6 & m + + 0 2m +2& 75$ 1 0Ă&#x2021; m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 0 6n 1m +2& 5 ?# 0 55$ 6 ! 1!1Ă&#x2021; 0 m + +! 5 Ă&#x2020;81 8 $ 60 m + +! 5 Ă&#x2020;81 75$ 1 mĂ&#x2021; Gn $ 6 0 +n6 /# 10 00 $ 6o +(,m Ă&#x2021; 71# ? 6' 1!m $ I # C +& # 6 m + + 0 2m +2&? $5 6' 1!mF1 $5 C$ 5 # 9 Ă&#x2020; m + + 8 / 8 5 8 # 175!
3.50
m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6
6.00
5.50
5.00
The Economist poll
4.50
BOT
3.00
6 . +! 5 + 0 2m +2&m + E 6' 7+! 15 Ă&#x2021; m 6' 7+! m + + 0 2m +2&m + E 9 ? 6' 1!m $ I 8 $+ 7 $ 3.0-3.5% 6' 7+! 2015 5 4.1% 6' 7+! 2016
2.50
2.00 A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
ast as of, month ending
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宦´ ¸ 2015 ¨³ 2016 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ ª ¨µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·
´¥q 1.04
6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 31/8/2015
6' 7+! 2016,
India China Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Singapore South Korea Australia US Hong Kong Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia
India China 6.9 Vietnam 6.6 Philippines 6.3 Malaysia 5.7 Indonesia 5.5 Pakistan 4.9 Thailand South Korea Singapore Australia Taiwan US Hong Kong Euro Area Japan 7.6
3.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 -1.7 -3.6
Source: The Economist
Brazil Russia
0.6 0.4
ÂŞr nÂľÂ&#x2039;³à Â&#x2DC;¡Â?Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x2014;oĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;ÂŚÂłÂ&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x17E;ÂľÂ&#x153;
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2022;qÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;¡Â&#x2013;¡ ¡ % m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $ , 2 31/8/2015 7.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.6
m + + 0 2m +2&m + E m.F1 + / $ I m + m +2&m + E / Ă&#x2020; /# + ? 9 F1 ? +(,m $ I/ Ă&#x2020;6' !.? E5mE 8E955&? 1 86 + E E10 6 & 6 0 +nFC# / 8 ! + m + E F1 $5 ? +(,m # 0 m + ;8 9+$/ mI6! 7&F11 86 + E E10 6 &
5.5 4.7 4.1 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.7
m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6
6' 7+! 2015 5 2016 +(,m /8n m m +2& $ E #F1+ ! 1m5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! + / 1Ă&#x2020; I E 8 1 8n m $ E 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 F1 ++ +(,m ?1
F7.$ 6 m $ 1/ Ă&#x2020; + C0 &m + E 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 0 5 F1 + 8 75!
2.7 2.1 1.7 1.6
6
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ´ªÉ Å ¥´ Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ ¥´ °¥¼nÄ £µª³Á · º ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢
´¥q 3.07b
% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#
% m + 5 Æ81 5
Veg
1.50%
Tobacco & a
Food away from
1.00%
Recreation & Edu
Core* 0.50%
Medic
Prepared food at
Apparel and foo 0.00%
Sea -0.50%
Housing & furn
Non alcoholic bev -1.00%
Head line -1.50%
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 Aug-15
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
Eggs
Transport & C
Â&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â?Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x201E;n°Â&#x153;ÂŽÂ&#x153;oÂľ Â&#x161;Ă&#x17D;ÂľĂ&#x201E;ÂŽo
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¼´Â&#x2020;´Â&#x17E;ÂťnÂ&#x153;ÂĽÂśĂ&#x201E;¢Â&#x2020;¼´¤Â&#x192;§ºmÂŁÂŹÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
5 m m$ 171# , 6. . 2015 & fruit
8.5
alcohol
2.0
m home
1.8
ucation
1.3
al care
0.7
t home
0.7
otware
0.5
Rice
0.3
soning
0.3
nishing
0.3
verage
0.3
Meat
!C1 + ; # + Eo Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 /Ă&#x2020; m+ ! + /! Ă&#x2020; ? 6 1 # 5 + m +/ Ă&#x2020;; # + Eo FC# $ 8 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo Ă&#x2026;1/ Ă&#x2020;1 80FC# F1m + ! ! + 1 :# ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8&
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
F1 16. . !C1 + ; # + Eo /! Ă&#x2020; 8! 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5 m m$ 171# 1.2% /' F7#8! 8 $F1o 1<
E 895! 10 + ! + 5 5 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6
-0.7
& milk
-2.6
Commu
Energy
!C1 + ; # + Eo
-7.6 -17.0 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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Á n Á ¸¥ª ´ Å o®ª´ · à ¦r ¦³Á «Å ¥Á oµ¼n£µª³Á · ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Ä§ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#
Latest
Russia Ͳ Jul
15.6
Brazil Ͳ Jul
9.6
Indonesia Ͳ Aug
7.2
India Ͳ Jul
3.8
Malaysia Ͳ Jul
3.3
Hong Kong Ͳ Jul
2.5
Pakistan Ͳ Jul
1.8
China Ͳ Jul
1.6
1.
Australia Ͳ Q2
1.5
1.
Philippines Ͳ Jul
0.8
South Korea Ͳ Aug
0.7
Vietnam Ͳ Aug
0.6
1.0
Japan Ͳ Jul
0.3
Euro Area Ͳ Aug
0.2
0.2
US Ͳ Jul
0.2
0.4
Singapore Ͳ Jul
-0.4
Taiwan Ͳ Jul Thailand Ͳ Aug
-0.7 -1.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
0.7
0.4 0.2 0.8
 º Â&#x2014;
2015* 14.8 8.7 6.3 5.4 2.6 3.1
1 :# F1E5m m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo F1 + / $ I m + m +2& ! + 1 :# ? /! Ă&#x2021; E 8 E
E10 6 &E955&
4.1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
5
C$ 1 8 m! #7 !1 6 E +& + / /8 ?# 6 $o 1 <
.7 2.6
2.8
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¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ¼ o ¨· ¥´ °¥¼nÄ £µª³Á · º °¥nµ n°Á º°É
´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶
´¥q 3.09
% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#
% m + 5 Æ81
3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0%
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 Aug-15
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
C Pulp & pa Tex NonͲmetallic min Mechin Mechin Fore Leather & footw W Other manu go M F Ene Electrical eq Chem Livesto Basic me Rubber & pla Fish Petroleum prod
9b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¼´Â&#x2020;´Â&#x17E;ÂťnÂ&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤œÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
5 m m$ 171# , 6. . 2015
Crop aper xtile neral nery nery estry ware Wood oods Metal Food ergy quip mical ocks etals astic hing ucts
5.9 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
!C1 + ; #;5 ! + 1 :# F1+ ! ; #;5 ! E 8 $ m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 + ; #;5 ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8& C +& 6 n m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1 !C1 + 0 5 8m 0+ 8 6 7m++0
-0.1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-0.1
o 1< F1+ ! ; #;5 8! 8 $ $ F1 16. . E 8+ ! + ; #;5 F1 15 ' Ă&#x2020; 5 3.8% mC$ 8 m!1? m$ 1
-0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -2.2 -3.5 -3.8 -4.1 -4.4 -5.4 -30.6
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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· Á ºÉ°¥´ ¥µ¥ ´ªÂ¤oªnµ ³ 뵃 ªnµ nª n° ® oµ ¸Ê ´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9!15# 1 / 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Ån¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 100% 97.7%
97.8%
97.2% 96.4%
95.7%
95.7% 94.9%
94.8%
Jan-15
Feb-15
95%
90% Jul-14
Aug-14
Source: Bank of Thailand
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
5
6 1 C Ă&#x2020; ? -1 +9 2 C8&
Mar-15
M-o-M
Y-o-Y
+0.5%
+4.6%
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
-1 +9 2 C8&/' 71# / Ă&#x2020;+! 1< m 5 5$ 8m # !C1 m + 5$ 8m # $ 1< m/! Ă&#x2021; 70 Ă&#x2026;16 Ă&#x2020; / Ă&#x2020;6 /# 1n m + 6!09!1-&? o +(,m / Ă&#x2020; /# + m! o
m + 1 n# !C1 0 $ 6 6 /# 1n m +/ Ă&#x2020;0 E m 6F1 m +5 / 1 ( 5$ 8m #) #0 m n# !C1 0 $ ' Ă&#x2020; mG 6 /# 1n 6n 1m +2& + m!1?# 0
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
6 1 C Ă&#x2020; 8! ?8 8 ! 0# $ ' Ă&#x2020; m $ C$ m$ 171# 1 Ă&#x2021; F1?2 / Ă&#x2020;6o 9 5$ F1+ -1 + + 0Ă&#x2020; ! 5Gm1# 8 96.5% 95.4% 94.5%
94.5%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ´Ê ®¤ ´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Ån ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 9!15# 1 /
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
270
256
267
10YE
11YE
12YE
13YE
1
2.26%
2.16%
2
12YE
13YE
1
´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Ån ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60% 2.75%
07YE
08YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
09YE
10YE
11YE
´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Â&#x2DC;n°¼°Â&#x2014;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;Âź o
71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #
278
4YE
2.16%
14YE
299
312
2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
Gross NPLs 70 8n 8
# ? 1F7#6 1 C Ă&#x2020; # 8
2o 9 # m$ 1F7#6 1 C Ă&#x2020; ! C!1Ă&#x2021; ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 0 +, 1 6 6!8 6 6!8 6 . 5 6 . 0 m2A&m + ! C!1Ă&#x2021; ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 C +& 6 71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #? /! Ă&#x2021; + 6n !1m + 1 /! Ă&#x2021; F1+ ! 1 5 6! 6$ 1? 8
5$ 8m #/ ! Ă&#x2021; 70
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; 0$m$ F7# m + 8 # 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; /! Ă&#x2021; F1 # 10 5 $ 5 F1+ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ă&#x2021; 70 F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6
2.29%
2.38%
2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;°Â&#x160;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Â&#x203A;Â&#x153;ÂľÂ&#x2021;¾Œ¥¾Â&#x2013;¡Â?ÂĽr¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;à ¨Ă&#x2C6;Â&#x201E;Â&#x153;o°¼Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă ÂŚÂłÂ&#x2014;´Â?ÂÂźÂ&#x160; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´mŠÂ&#x203A;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x161;Â&#x203A;´Â&#x2020;´¼ ´Â&#x2022;ÂśÂ&#x152;¤q 6! 6$ 1 $ 6 1/+!98& 6 Ă&#x2020;8 2 6 1Ă&#x2021;
15.8%
16.2%
16.1%
14.9%
15.7%
14.8% 14.0%
13.9% 13.3% 12.4%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
Source: Bank of Thailand
2013
Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;¤¡.ÂĽ. Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2DC;nÂĽÂ&#x160;´ Â&#x2122;º°ªn¾°¼ŸnĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;
Â&#x2022; ÂŹÂśĂ&#x2039;Â&#x203A;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A; 17.5%
! + 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8&
17.0%
2015 2014 16.5%
1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& / 81F1 + / 70 8n 6$ 1? ; #n 7 #1 6 1/+!98& 6 Ă&#x2020;8 70 8n 6 1/+!98&n$ 1# 71!m 0 0 6 Ă&#x2020;8 /! Ă&#x2021; 6 1Ă&#x2021; DĂ&#x2020; Ă&#x2026;1 8 + 0? + 8m +F1 m + 1/ Ă&#x2020; #n$ 1# 71!m 0
0 0 0 6 Ă&#x2020;8 ( 0 + m - /.) ! + 6$ 1 8 Ă&#x2020; 6 8 Ă&#x2020; 6 n 00!1Ă&#x2020; F1+ -1 +
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
16.0%
6! 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8&5 5 5Gm1# 8 F1 10 .8. $8! n $ 8 $F1+ ! 6 15.5%
15.0%
14.5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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¤¸Ž¨¾¼Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤÂ&#x161;¸¤Ă&#x2030; ¸°Â&#x2DC;´ ÂŚÂľÂ&#x2014;°Â&#x201E;Ă Â?¸Ă&#x160; ÂĽÂ&#x161;¸Ă&#x201A;Ă&#x2030; Â&#x161;oÂ&#x2039;Œ¡Â&#x160;Â&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â? Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2022;qÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Â&#x2013;ÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x153;¡Ă&#x2039;¤Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;Ă&#x192;Â&#x2122;nÂ&#x160;ÂĽÂśÂ&#x2030; 2 !1/ Ă&#x2020; 31/8/2015 3M risk-free interest rates Brazil
Ĺ&#x2020;
Expected 2015 inf
14.2
Russia
8.7
12.5
Indonesia
7.5
India
7.4
Pakistan
7.0
Vietnam
6.3 5.4 4.1 2.8
4.6
Malaysia
2.6
3.7
China
3.1
1.5
Australia
2.3
Philippines
1.8
Thailand
1.7
0.8
South Korea
1.6
1.0
Taiwan
0.9
1.7 2.6
0.2
Hong Kong
0.4
US
0.3
0.4
Japan
0.1
0.7
Euro Area
0.0
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
3.1
0.2
flation*
=
Real interest rates 5.5
14.8
-2.3 1.2 2.0 2.9
! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + F1 + / $ I C +& 6 - 71 Ă&#x2020; F1m + ' 1 2 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + E 8 + 0 2m +2& ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + F1 ! !1 = ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; - ! + 1 :# m +2&
1.8 1.1 1.6 0.6
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0 75 8 + / / Ă&#x2020;0 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + 5 6$ 1 + / /8 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + + 0 2 8 $/Ă&#x2020; m 1%
-0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 -2.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Â.Â&#x2021;. Â&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x153;¸ SET Â&#x17E;ΫÂ?¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160; 4% Â&#x161;n¾¤Â&#x201E;¨¾Â&#x160;Â&#x201E;¾ŒĂ&#x2026;ÂŽ °¼nÂľÂ&#x160;ÂŽÂ&#x153;´Â&#x201E;°¸Â&#x201E;Œ³¨°Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡ SET
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m 1m$ 171#
2 !1/ Ă&#x2020; 29/7/2015 France (CAC 40)
1.4%
0.6%
Japan (Nikkei 225) Pakistan (KSE) Germany (DAX)
-2.0% -4.3%
-5.1%
-4.0%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) China (SSEB, $ terms) US (NAScomp)
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
S Korea (KOSPI) Australia (All Ord.)
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; £§Â&#x2020;m´Â&#x192;´¼§Â&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;²£Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x2014;m´Â&#x2030;Â&#x152;´Â&#x2014;Âś SET 5 MAI, ! Ă&#x2021; $ #1 n 6 1Ă&#x2021; 1, 9!15# 1 /
US (S&P 500) India (BSE) US (DJIA) UK (FTSE 100)
0.0
China (SSEA)
-20.0
Malaysia (KLSE)
-40.0
HK (Hang Seng)
-60.0
Thailand (SET)
-80.0
Singapore (STI) Taiwan (TWI)
-100.0 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15
Source: SET, The Economist
J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15
Indonesia (JSX)
¨°°Â&#x201E;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;Â&#x2DC;nÂľÂ&#x160;Â?ÂľÂ&#x2DC;¡
´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x203A;ÂłÂ&#x153;Â&#x160;´Â&#x192;ÂŹÂśĂ&#x2039;Â&#x203A;Â?d 2014 5.3% 5.3% 4.4% 2.0% 1.8% -0.8%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 75!m/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.I C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 + 8 1? !C1 75!m/+!98& SET ? + / /8 C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ ! !C1 75!m/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.I? E5m 1! ! Ă&#x2021; $61 Ă&#x2021; m$ 1 F16m 5 1/# n 1Ă&#x2020;
-0.8% -1.1% -3.9% -5.8% -6.5% -8.6%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
F1 16. . !C1 SET +! 5 5 4% /$ 0m5 m + 75 m? 1/ 1 $ C 8$ 71!m m+ 5 m 5 C$ 1 8 m!1m! 5 7 #16$ 1F7.$/ !Ă&#x2020; E5m !C1 SET 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ?
-8.9% -9.5% -10.3% -10.7% -11.9% -14.6% -17.1% -18.9% Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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Capturing The Vietnam
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m Growth Opportunity
Contact Information FinAdvice Department â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Private Fund Tel 02-635-1700 ext. 757, 771, 777 pfadmin@phillip.co.th , fa@phillip.co.th
¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ 2
´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ · · ·
5 1F1 + 0 2
5 16
1.4%
1.1%
-0.3%
-0.5%-0.6%
-0.7% -1.1%-1.1%
-0.9
-1.7% -2.0% -2.6%
-4.0% -4.4%
05FY
06FY
07FY
08FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
09FY
10FY
11FY
2014
5 + 0 2 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9
5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1 F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8+!, 5
5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 1 70 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5 C +& 6 5 1F1 + 0 2 5 5 16 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 Ă&#x2026;1+# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + /
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
9%
Y
-2.0% -2.2%
-2.4%-2.5%
/! Ă&#x2021; 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?
5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 m +?
5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 0 $ 0 m? 1Ă&#x2021; 8$ 0 m F1 2009 0 m +?
5 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9 6$ 1 2012 0 m + ?
5 + 0 26 0 m 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9 5 F1+ 10 0 9 8 2009 /$ 1!1Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020;?
50 mm $ m +?
5 + 0 2 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; F1 2014
-3.6% -4.1%
12FY
13FY
14FY Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨¤µ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ªnµ ° ¸ 2015 ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ 9!15# 1 / 2,075
¥´¤¥³ 1,241
º§ ¥²£´
1,751
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-267
-296
-2,424
-2,371
1,902
-75
-27
-364
-1,277
2,076
1,484
110
-36
2,158
-414
-1,280 -1,629
¥´¤ m´¤
-1,598 -1,849
-1,825
-1,930 -2,489
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
¾°Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x161;nÂľ Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; 7 Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;
Â&#x2013;º§Â&#x2030;Â&#x153;Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;²£¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A; 50.0
5 + 0 2
0.0
5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m + 8 $ 8+!, 5 C +& ? 0 6 5 + 0 2 6 60+ 8 1? 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#
-50.0
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-100.0
2014 -150.0
5 + 0 2?
50 mm $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 m $ 6 /$ F1 7 1 +m? 2015
2015 -200.0
-250.0
-300.0
-350.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨ 97 ¡´ ¨oµ µ nª »¨Á · µ Ä nª 7 Á º° ¦ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ¬ 9!15# 1 / º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 88
-27
-36 -45 -75
-95
-100 -96 -144 -174
-266
-364 -401
-414
-4
05FY
06FY
07FY
08FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
ÂľÂ&#x2014;Â&#x2014;¨ 148 ¥´Â&#x153;¨oÂľÂ&#x153;Â?ÂľÂ&#x161;
5 + 0 2 5 5 16
5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8 +!, 5 5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 170 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-97 -148
-242 -267 -296 -305
/! Ă&#x2021; 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?
5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 0 5 $ m +?
5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 8$ 0 m 8m #1 9 8 2010 6' 7+! F1 Ă&#x2020;1
5 16 m! 5 + 0 20!m 0$ $ m!10 m1!m F1 2012 0 m +?
5F1+ ! 16 6 Ă&#x2026;1 + ! m +2& 6' 7+! F1 7 1 +m? 2015 5 + 0 2?
5 97 9!15# 1 / 6$ 1 5 16
?
5 148 9!15# 1 /
466
Y
13FY
14FY
'15/7mo Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ° Å
´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È % $ 9 , 70 86' 7+! 2015 South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Philippines
-1.9
Indonesia Thailand
-2.0 -2.0
Euro Area Australia
-2.1 -2.4
US China
-2.6 -2.7
Russia India
-4.1
Malaysia
-4.1
-2.8
Vietnam
-4.2
Pakistan
-5.1
Brazil Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-5.8 -6.8
¼¼´Â&#x160;Â&#x2122;º°ªnÂľĂ&#x2026;¤nÂÂźÂ&#x160;
0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.1
5 + 0 2+!, 5 $ IF1E5m + 8 / 8 5 + 0 2o +!,? + / / Ă&#x2020;6' !. ? E5m ! F1+ +# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + / mm + m +2&? ; # ?# +$ 0 E E1 0 6 &E955&
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+!, 56$ 1F7.$F1E5mn m m +2& $ ?
5 + 0 2F1 2015 8m #1 9 8 m 75 F # 5 $ m ?1 ? m +?
5) 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 0 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 F1. Ă&#x2020; $ 1 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! + / Ă&#x2020;1I m + ?
5 + 0 2? /8/ Ă&#x2020; 2% ? 9 8! n $ 0$ 6
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ÂŽÂ&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; ÂÂľÂ&#x203A;¾ŒÂ&#x2013;³à ¥¡¤Ă&#x2030; ÂÂźÂ&#x160;Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;¸ 2015 Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;´Â&#x161;´¼Â&#x2022;²
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
5# 15# 1 /
6! 6$ 1 $ 9
6.0
5.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
4.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
3.0
2.0
Direct Government debt 1.0
0.0
2011 8%
2012 8%
2013 7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2014 7%
Jun-15 6%
2011
External debt as percent of total
2012
ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;´Â&#x161;´¼Â&#x2022;² 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
25% 20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
2
71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 + m # 8 71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020;+ !, 5m #E 8 + 71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; +!, 5m # 9 Ă&#x2020; C C8 0 6 87 8F7# m$m / 1 9 Ă&#x2020; m + : Ă&#x2021; 1: ) 71 Ă&#x2021; 1m #5$ 71# 9 Ă&#x2020; +! E + 6+# 71 Ă&#x2021; 71 Ă&#x2021; 6 - +2 m+!, 6 7m 5 71 Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020;1I C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 0 + o/71 Ă&#x2021; 0 ' 1 1 1 C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 0 + o/71 Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 9 0Ă&#x2020; 6 ? 1Ă&#x2021; 5Gm1# 8F1 1/ Ă&#x2021; ! Ă&#x2021; F1+ ! 1 (5.7 5# 15# 1 /) 5 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 (42%) 6 7 75!m m71 +Ă&#x2021; !, 5m #E 8 + E 871 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 6$ 1 F7.$ Ă&#x2026;171 FĂ&#x2021; 1 + / (6m 5 1 /)
5% 0%
2013
2014
Jun-15
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ÂŽÂ&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; ÂÂľÂ&#x203A;¾ŒÂ&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x161;ÂĽĂ&#x2026;¤nÂ&#x2122;°º ÂŞn¾°¼ŸnĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;ÂŚÂłÂ&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; ÂźÂ&#x160;à ¤º°Ă&#x2030; Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â? Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 4.6 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;´Â&#x161;´¼Â&#x2022;²Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Ă&#x201E;§Â&#x192; 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 , 2014 ( + 0 2m +2&) 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 4 Lebanon 5 Italy 6 Jamaica 7 Portugal 8 Cyprus 9 Ireland 10 Grenada 11 Singapore 12 Belgium 13 Eritrea 14 Barbados 15 Spain 16 France 17 Iceland 18 Egypt 19 Puerto rico 20 Canada 21 Bhutan 22 Jordan 23 Antigua and barbuda 24 UK 25 Cabo verde Source: CIA fact book
228 181 175 142 134 132 131 119 119 110 107 102 101 101 98 96 94 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 86
39 United 40 C 43 48 Ur 50 Pa 56 63 Ma 67 71 Th 72 Philip 7 80 Vie 93 M 96 Sw 101 Arg 103 South 105 Hong 108 T 126 129 N 133 Indo 137 147 149 N 164 Saudi
Â?¤¾Â&#x2DC;ÂŚÂ&#x201C;ÂľÂ&#x153;Â&#x153;ÂľÂ&#x153;ÂľÂ?ÂľÂ&#x2DC;¡
states Croatia 3 Israel ruguay akistan 6 Brazil alaysia 7 India hailand ppines 8 Laos etnam Mexico weden entina Korea g kong Turkey Nepal orway onesia 7 China Russia Nigeria arabia
71 70 67 65 64 59 54 51 49 48 46 46 41 40 38 37 37 37 30 30 24 22 13 12 2
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 F1E5m 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9 F1 + / $ I + 0 2 m +2&E 8 Central Intelligence Agency ? 67+!,)
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+ / 9!41 5# 0 6! 6$ 171 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 $ 9 6 71 Ă&#x2021; 6 - +2 ? /8 0 ! 5? m CIA 8 $/Ă&#x2020; 49% ? 9 F1 2014 DĂ&#x2020; 0$n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020;6 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 0 +, 11 1 C . Ă&#x2020; $ 10 6! 6$ 171 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 $ 9 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 / Ă&#x2020; 228% E 8 + / 6$ 1F7.$/Ă&#x2020;+ ! 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 6 0!m 8 $F18 E+
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë £´ ´ m© • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § Å Â ¹¯ . . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 3.0-3.5% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ ©m´¬¯  m´ Å ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%
·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä
² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© d ·Êçn©
Ä¢ 15 ç² 4.1% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´ Ï´Ån¤³ ¯¤»mÅ ¢´©²Â ¶ f ¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
7  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë
´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Ä 7 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2015 Á · »¨ µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F. 29.8
´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ 9!15# 1 55 +& 10FY
1
31.3
º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥
+ -19.7
5.6
5.3 1.2
10FY
-1.2
´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤
-5.0 10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
15/7mo
21.3
10FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
1
1
Â&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾Œà Â&#x201E;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x2021;oÂľ
O.B) 24.6 18.0
17.0 6.0
6.7
E + 6+# 5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
15/7mo
¼´¤Ă&#x2020;Â&#x2013;nÂŹÂşÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161;Âś
-8.1
-7.5
-3.5 -9.1
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 70 8n ;56+ ? m +/' - +m++0 / +(,m + 7 $ ; #0 n1 Ă&#x2020; , 1F1 + / m! ; #0 n1 Ă&#x2020; , 1F1 $ + / F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Ă&#x2020; + m # 8 5m + # 5 + m + 5 + 8 # 5 !.C 1/ 1 5 0 5 5 Ă&#x2020; 16 /-
-10.4
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1F1 7 1 +m? 2015 m 1 5 mm + m 1 5m + #
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
15/7mo
¤Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Ă&#x192;§²Â&#x2020;Š´£Â&#x2020;§´Â&#x2013;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2020;§šĂ&#x160;ÂŻÂ&#x203A;ÂŹÂşÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161;Âś
6.7 -2.6
-7.7
11FY
-15.4 12FY
13FY
14FY
-8.9
15/7mo
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¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2015 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2
21.3%
Taiwan Ͳ Q2
12.8%
South Korea Ͳ Jun
7.6%
Russia Ͳ Q2
5.0%
Philippines Ͳ Mar
4.1%
Malaysia Ͳ Q2
3.4%
China Ͳ Q2
3.0%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
2.8%
Vietnam Ͳ 2013
2.7%
Japan Ͳ Jun
2.6%
Euro Area Ͳ Jun
2.5%
Thailand Ͳ Q1
2.4%
Pakistan Ͳ Q2
-0.6%
India Ͳ Q1
-1.2%
US Ͳ Q1
-2.6%
Indonesia Ͳ Q2
-2.6%
Australia Ͳ Q1 Brazil Ͳ Jul
-3.1% -4.1%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-406.4
Â&#x2039;¸ Â&#x2014;¸¥Â¸ nÂŞÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;ÂŽÂ?nĂ Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Ă ÂŤÂŚÂŹÂ&#x201C;Â&#x201E;¡Â&#x2039;
Last 12 months, USD Billion 69.5
5 !.C 16 9!
72.8
5 !.C 16 9! (Current Account) ;5+ 0 6 /- ? 5m + # 5 + m + + 8 # ,0o 0 5 + 8 #/ 8o 0 C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + m +2&
5 !.C 16 9! F1+ +# 85 ? 9 E 8 E E1 0 6 &E955& C +& # 1? 6 n 5 !.C 16 9!
F1 12 15$ 6 ? $5 + / F1+ 16m 5
55 +&
102.2 68.7 14.5 8.8 291.4 5.9
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
9.5 97.1 317.6 16.1 -2.2
+ / / Ă&#x2020;0 5 !.C 16 9! m 1 50 mI 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 6$ 1F7.$ Ă&#x2026;1 +(,m m F70$F1 C 8 + / +' Ă&#x2020; + 8F1 !1 m C$ 167+!,)0 , 1 F1+ +(,m E5m Ă&#x2026;1; #D Ă&#x2021; 6 /-
-27.5
-21.6 -41.9 -89.4 Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2015 ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)
69.0
74.4
76.1
75.3
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
100.6
104.3
10YE
11YE
130.
12Y
´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 6! 6$ 1 $ 9
38.5%
06YE
35.4%
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
38.0%
12YE
71 Ã&#x2021; $ + /
.7
139.9
140.7
138.0
YE
13YE
14YE
15/1Q
71 Ã&#x2021; $ + / 70 8n 8
# 71 6Ã&#x2021; 16$ 1/ Ã&#x2020; 0$FC$ / 1 + 17 #1 / Ã&#x2020;; #0 n1 Ã&#x2020; , 1F1 + / m$ ? 1Ã&#x2021; m! ; 0# n 1 Ã&#x2020; , 1F1 $ + / /! Ã&#x2021; 71 6Ã&#x2021; 1/ Ã&#x2020;0 m 8Ã&#x2021; 7+ 0$0 m 8Ã&#x2021; E 80 o + ; m9!1/ Ã&#x2020; # CÃ&#x2039; + 1 1 #1 E 8+ 071 6Ã&#x2021; 1/ m6m 5 1 5 / m + o/? m +m #8 0 + + 0E 8- /. 5 m ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 C +& 6 F1+ 6m 5 1 55 +& C +& 6 F1+ +# 85 ? 9
m + 5 Ã&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
71 Ã&#x2021; $ + / 9 0Ã&#x2020; ? 1Ã&#x2021; 8$ 0 m75! 2009 $ + 0Ã&#x2020; 5 5 F1 1 Ã&#x2021;
%
38.2%
E
13YE
34.5%
33.7%
14YE
15/1Q
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63
à ¦ ¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ ¸ ¹Ê à ¥¤ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë
´¥q 5.11b –
6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / /! Ç 70
6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + /
o mC1 o +!,
16%
84%
11YE
71 +Ç 8 8 71 +Ç 8 6!1Ç
20%
80%
12YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
18%
82%
13YE
18%
82%
14YE
18% 45%
44
55%
56
11YE
12Y
82%
15/1Q
¤¸ÂÂ&#x2014;´ ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;ÂŽÂ&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; Œ³¼³¼¾ª
ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;Â&#x2014;m´Â&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ&#x2014;´£¼²¤²Ă&#x201A;Š§´ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;
/ /! Ă&#x2021; 70
%
6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + /
43%
40%
39%
6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / $ 0 - $ C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / 05!m(2 ? 5 m71 Ă&#x2021; C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / 05!m(2 ? + 8 5 1 1E 8+ 8 8 70 8n 0 mm $ 1 + 8 6!1Ă&#x2021; 70 8n 1# 8m $ 1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
E + 6+# 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / ? /8 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ?1 Ă&#x2021; E 80 6! 6$ 171 +Ă&#x2021; 8 8 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021;
%
57%
60%
61%
YE
13YE
14YE
15/1Q
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64
ªµ¤µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥¥´ Ťn nµ
´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²©m´ ¥²Â ª
´¥q 5.12b – ¯³
6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / + 8 6!1Ç
370% 340% 312%
4.7% 279%
277%
292%
3.4%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13YE
14YE
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
15/1Q
10FY
11FY
¾à Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x161;¸Â&#x201E;Ă&#x2030; Â&#x160;´ ª¨
Â&#x2014;¼´mŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x152;Ă?´¼²ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;Â&#x2014;Â?Â&#x2122;.Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;
06 0 +nF1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + /
4.7% 4.2%
12FY
4.9%
0 00 / Ă&#x2020;6 /# 1 06 0 +nF1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / C +& 6 + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ă&#x2021; 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ă&#x2021; C +& 6 ! + 6$ 1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / $ m +6$ m
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0# $ 5 5 m 6 6 F1 2011 + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ă&#x2021; 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ă&#x2021; mG 8! n $ 8 F$ 1+ ! / Ă&#x2020; 5 o!8 (277%) ! + 6$ 1m + CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / $ m +6$ m 0 $ ' Ă&#x2020; 8 $/Ă&#x2020; 9 8 4.7% DĂ&#x2020; 6+ # $ 06 0 +nF1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / ? /88! 0$1$ Ă&#x2026;1/ Ă&#x2020;m! 5
4.0%
13FY
14FY
15/1Q
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65
Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;ÂĂ&#x17D;¾Œ°Â&#x160;Œ³ŽªnÂľÂ&#x160;Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;à ¨Ă&#x2C6;Â&#x201E;Â&#x153;o°¼Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2DC;nÂĽÂ&#x160;´ Â&#x2021;Â&#x160;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼²Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â&#x2030;¼²ÂŠm´Â&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞ* 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)
73.9
2006
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
154.1
2009
191.7
206.4
205.8
2010
2011
2012
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼²Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â&#x2030;¼²ÂŠm´Â&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞ ' 1 1 1/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + $ m +1' ?# #** 13.8
12.6 10.8
9.1 6.9
2006
2007
9.9
7.9
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
2012
Â&#x160;¤¸à Ž¨º°à ¢º °
16' + + 7 $ + /
8
190.2
180.2
174.6
2
2013
2014
Jul-15
2
16' + + 7 $ + / 6 1/+!98& $ + / / Ă&#x2020;n
+ E 8-1 +m5 5 6 0 +n1' 0 FC# + E8C1&/!1/ /Ă&#x2020; ' Ă&#x2026;1 C$ 1 9 Ă&#x2020; m +C C8m +?
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 7+ FC# Ă&#x2026;1 + Ă&#x2020; 0 71 Ă&#x2020; F1m + ' 1 11E8 8 ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81 1! + 00 5 $ ? Net forward position / Ă&#x2020;- /.0 o + ; m9!1F16!.. currency forward contracts C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F16m 5 1
55 +&67+!,) C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ ' 1 1 1/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + $ m + 1' ?# # ( m 1 80F7#FC# CĂ&#x2039; + # m 16 0 1)
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
9.1
9.5
9.7
2013
2014
Jul-15
+ ! 16' + + 7 $ + / 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; m 4 /$ ! Ă&#x2021; $ 2005 $5 5 5Gm1# 8 ! Ă&#x2021; $ 2012 /! Ă&#x2021; 1 Ă&#x2021; 0 Ă&#x2020; ' 1 1 1/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + $ 6 1 # 1' ?# # mG9 $ 6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + #n m 10 1DĂ&#x2020; n $ 6 m 1 0 ' Ă&#x2026;1 0 m
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Ä Á º° . . Á · µ °n° nµ ªnµ 1% Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ »¨Á ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´
´¥q 5.17b –
2007 = 100
% / Æ 5 Æ81 5 m MYR Ͳ 8.7172 114.0
Baht appreciates 112.0
MXN Ͳ 2.1507
110.0
IDR Ͳ 2.7164
108.0
EUR Ͳ 40.6272
MͲoͲM 106.0
Ͳ1.4% YͲoͲY
Aug-14
Nov-14
May-15
INR Ͳ 0.5759
100.0 Aug-15
TWD Ͳ 1.1134
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingASEAN analysis
SGD Ͳ 25.6825
102.0
+2.0% Feb-15
JPY Ͳ 29.908 KRW Ͳ 0.0305
104.0
Baht depreciates
AUD Ͳ 26.0602
GBP Ͳ 55.7311 PHP Ͳ 0.7816 VND Ͳ 0.0016 CNY Ͳ 5.6752 USD Ͳ 36.0277
Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;°ºĂ&#x2030;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2021; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Ă&#x192;§Â&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;
m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 2 !1/ Ă&#x2020; 31/8/2015
! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81 18.1 15.7 14.0 8.5 4.4 4.0 3.6
0.6 -1.9
C +& 6 !C1 $ 1 / (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) 6+# m $ >5 Ă&#x2020;8n$ 1' Ă&#x2021; 71!m? ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81+ 7 $ $ 1 / 5 $ 1 23 6m 5/ Ă&#x2020;6' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ ? /8 E 81' Ă&#x2021; 71!m / Ă&#x2020;FC# ? 1Ă&#x2021; 8 $m! 06' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ m + 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; ? !C1 70 8n m + ?G $ ? 1Ă&#x2021; ? 1 / $ 10 ? C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ 1 /Ă&#x2020;; 6m 5 1 $ I/ Ă&#x2020;6' !. 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 1 /E 8 ! m ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81 >5 Ă&#x2020;8/ Ă&#x2020;-1 +9 2 C8& 61 ? 8
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
F1 16. . 1 / $ 1 $ m $ 1% $F1C$ 1 /Ă&#x2020; ;$ 10 1 / ?G $ ? 1Ă&#x2021; 2% 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Ă&#x2020;1IF1 m+# 1/ m +
-3.6 -4.3 -4.7 -6.3 -7.3 -10.9 Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates Š ChartingASEANâ&#x201E;˘
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