Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief ตุลาคม 2558

Page 1

Charting Thailand’s Economy

MONTHLY

ตุลาคม 2558 ISSN: 2286-6132

Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, October 2015 (Thai) Publication Date: October 2nd, 2015 Number of pages: 71 DISCLAIMER

All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or tra form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwis prior permission of the publisher, ChartingTHAILAND™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but c guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations th ChartingTHAILAND™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good fa primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a positio As such ChartingTHAILAND™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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ansmitted in any se, without the

cannot be hat aith from both n to guarantee. n based on any

any questions

+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m 6' 7+! ; # + 7 ++ ! 6 1!m5 / 1 7+ ; #/Æ6 1F 0 +(,m /8 $0 5 1# 8 F7#6 0 +n #+! m + + : 1 E1#0 0 Å1 ? +(,m /8 Å1 + ' 15 +! Ç

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hailand/register

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ε­´ µ

°·­¦£µ¡Ä

Á¦µÁ È ¦·¬ ´ ¸ÅÉ ¤n ʹ ¦ ´ ® nª¥ µ Ä ´ ´ Ê ¹ ¤¸°­· ¦³Á Ȥ ¸ÄÉ Å¤n¤ ¸ ªµ¤ εÁ È Á¨¥ ¸ÁÉ ¦µ ³ o° Â

¢¦¸ ¨

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à ¬ µ ¸ÉÁ È

 n ° ªnµÄ  n ¦» · Á¦µ°¥  nÁ¦µ­´ µªnµ ³ ´ Á¨º° Á ¡µ³Ã ¬ µ ¸¤É Á¸ ºÊ°

µ µ Á¦µ

µ¦ εÁ­ °

µ¦Á­ ° o°¤¼¨Â¨³ µ¦ª·Á ¦µ³®r­£µª³Á«¦¬ · °¥nµ ¸¤É ´ Á È ³ εĮo µn º°Ê µ¥ ®¦º°¨ » Ä Ç

° Å

³Á ¸¥ ¸É Ǥ Ǥ Ȁ µÂ ³ 妵¥ µ ¸Ê ´ Á¡º°É ° »

¦³Ã¥ r Á nµ ´ Ê

¥¼Ån o ªo ¥¦µ¥Å o µ à ¬ µ ®µÁ È ¦³Ã¥ r ®¦º° ¸¤É ¦¸ ¼  ­ª¥ µ¤Á nµ ´ Ê

4

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Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · à ¨ ¨ Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É °

´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.5%

7.2%

7.3%

6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.2%

2.8% 1.7% 0.8%

0.9%

-0.7% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

! + m + E 9 F1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 + / /8 8# 175! 10 5 ! + m + E + 8 F16 Æ +0 65$ 6 ( / 8 m! + 0 6 8 m!1? m$ 171# ) Å1m +6 /# 1n m + ?8 8 ! ? + +(,m F1 $5 C$ 5 F1 Å1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + DÆ #1' ;5? 1 :# m 5# ! 5? ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 2 m++0m + 9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

Last 5 Quarters

! + m + E 9 ? /8F1

3.0%

2.8%

2.1% 0.9% 1.0%

! + m + E / Æ /# + >5 Æ8 ! Ç $ 2003 n 2014 /$ m! 3.4% F1C$ 10 /Æ; $ 10 0 9 8 2009 8 / Æ ! + m + E 5 m + E F1 2010 1! $ 6 0 m 5 6 /# 1n m +: Ç 1 ! ? +(,m / Æ0m! + 8mm!1 $ 0 5!m(2 70 1 ! (V) mV /mo!86+# ;5m+ / 8$ 71!m $ 9 F1 +0 6/ Æ6Æ 2011 /' F7#/ ! Ç / 0$0m + E $ + / /8mG: Ç1 ! # +G m /mo!8 E 8 9 F1 2012 E 6 n 6.5% 6' 7+! 2013 +(,m /8 E 2.8% 9+ #+! ;5m+ / m 6n 1m +2& 0 $1 8/ m + 0 F1C$ +0 6/ Æ6Æ $ 1 Æ 0 1n +0 6 +m? 2014 $ + 0Æ : Ç 1 ! F1 +0 6/ Æ6 Å1 #10 /' F7#/ ! Ç 2014 E # 0.7% 5 8! : Ç 1 ! $ 1 Æ F1 2015

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

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£µ ¦· µ¦¤¸­nª nª¥ µ¦Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É ° ¨³°» ­µ® ¦¦¤ µ¦ ¨· ¥´ nª µ¦Á · à ´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q15

´¥q 1.06b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Hotel&Res

18.7

GDP

Construction

17.3

Transport

Financial

8.6

Hotel&Res

Transport

8.6

Financial

Other social

6.3

Trading

Health&Social

5.5

Construction

Private HH

5.5

RealEstate

Trading

3.7

Other social

GDP

2.8

Utilities

Utilities

2.7

Health&Social

RealEstate

2.5

Education

Education

2.2

PublicAdmin

PublicAdmin

1.3

Manufacture

-0.7

Fishing Mining Agriculture

-1.6 -3.9 -6.3

Private HH Fishing Mining Manufacture Agriculture Stat diff

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

°ÂŠ¤¾Â„š¸­Ă‰ — ­nÂŞÂœÂŁÂľÂ‡Ă Â„ÂŹÂ˜ÂŚ ! + m + E 9 + 8o m +;5 +0 6 5$ 6

– ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡ 2Q15

$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 mo $ I 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2

F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 0 5 $ 9 0Æ ? ;5;5 F1o $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 + 0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5? m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 71 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 8 6' 1!m 1 2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Æ m +;5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 7+ 5 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Æ6 DÆ 0 ! 5?5$ 6 F1 +0 6 2 2015 7G1 # $ o E+ +0 5 +# 1 7 + 0 m + E 6 6 6$ 1o m( +0 ! + m + E 5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Æ6 DÆ o + m +0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E ? 9 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 0 m/ Æ6 6$ 1o m( + 5 6 7m++0m +;5 8! n$ m + E

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Œ¾¼Â‹n ¾¼Â‹ÂľÂ„„¾ŒÂšn°ÂŠĂ š¸¼Ă‰ ª¤¸­nÂŞÂœÂ?nª¼„¾Œà ˜¡Â?ĂƒÂ˜Ă„ÂœĂ…Â˜Œ¤¾­ ÂŒ´¼q— 1.08a – ƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡Â–n´Â›¼´¤ÂŠm´¤ 2Q15

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.08b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

% m + 5 Æ81 5

X (services)

25.1

G

4.6

GDP X (services)

GDP

2.8

Discrpncy

I (capital)

2.5

C

I

1.9

G

C

1.5

I (capital)

M (services)

-0.2

M (goods)

M (goods)

-0.3

M (services)

X (goods)

-4.0

I (Inventory) X (goods)

Note: (*) C = m + + Eo mC1, I = m +5 / 1 $ Å1 I (capital) = m +6 60/ 1 5 I (inventory) = m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 6 1 # 75 G = m + + Eo o +!,, X = m +6$ m6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0+ 8 # mm +/$ / Æ8 ), M = m +1' ?# 6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0 Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

­Âš¸­Ă‰ °ÂŠ¤¾Â„š¸­Ă‰ —

–ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡ 2Q15

! + m + E 9 # 1+ 8 $ 8 +0 65$ 6

0.8

F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? + 8 $ 8 $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 +0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5 ? m + 5 Æ81 5 ? + 8 $ 8 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 871 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 8 $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1

2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

0.6

! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Æ + 8 $ 8

$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 m+ 8 $ 8 $ I 2.8 3.3 3.0 0.8

0.1 0.0 -0.2

C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 7+ 5 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Æ6 DÆ 0 ! 5? 5$ 6 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 7G1 # $ + 8 $ 8m +/$ / Æ8 0 ! + m + E 6 / Æ6 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Æ6 DÆ 7G1 # $ m +/$ / Æ8 0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E 0 m/ Æ6

-2.5

0+ 8 $ 8m + / Æ8 /.) Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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´ ¸ ¨ ¨· £µ °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¥´ 뵃 ªnµ¦³ ´ ° ¸ n°

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100)

2

194.2 182.9 174.6

170.0

161.1

177.6 181.6 175.7

167.7

152.1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

°ÂœÂ˜n°Ă…ž

‹§¡ĂŠ¤¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0

200.0

!C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0+ 0m +;5 F1 o 6 7m++0/ Æ6' !. n$ 1' Ç 71!m 00 5 $ 9 0Æ E 8FC# 2000 Å1 , 1E 8F7#0 $ /$ m! 100 !C1 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1

180.0

160.0

140.0

2014 2015

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

F1+ 8 5 10 /Æ; $ 10 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0 0 m + E / / m 8m #1 8 $ 9 8 2009 / Æ m mV D ! 9+0&F1+ +(,m E5m 2011 / Æ m mV /mo!8 F1 + / 5 5$ 6 F1 2013 m 7 m +2& 0 0$6 / m + 0 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++08! ' Æ m $ + ! ? m$ 1 $ 6 /# 1n o C 5 ! ? +(,m

120.0

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

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°Â˜­¾ŽÂ„ŒŒ¤­nÂŞÂœĂ„ÂŽÂ?n¤¸Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â˜¨Â—¨ÂŠÂ‹ÂľÂ„Â?nªŠà —¸¼ªÂ„´ÂœÂ…° ÂŒ´¼q— 1.11a – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Âž§Âž§œÂ—¼´¤¯ºÂ—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.11b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 6. . 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Vehicles

13.6

Petroleum

9.1

Office automate Transport Equip

Chemical

4.7

Apparel

Electrical

3.9

Electrical

Food & Bev

1.9

Furniture

Apparel

-1.3

Paper

Rubber&Plastic

-1.4

Petroleum

Paper

-1.9

Chemical

Metal products

-3.1

Textiles

Machineries

-3.2

Vehicles

Precision instru

-4.0

Mineral

Tobacco

-4.3

Rubber&Plastic

Mineral

-4.8

Precision instru

Furniture

-6.4

Food & Bev

Wood products

-8.6

Wood products

Textiles

-8.9

Electronic

Transport Equip

-9.5

Leather

Leather

-10.9

Electronic Basic Mat

-14.0 -24.5

Office automate -32.1 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Metal products Tobacco Machineries

Basic Mat -1

Šž¸ „n°Âœ

– Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Âž§Âž§œÂ—¼´¤¯ºÂ—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ

m 1m$ 1, 6. . 2015 17.0 6.5 4.1 3.0 1.0 0.5 -0.3 -0.9 -1.7 -2.0 -3.0 -3.1 -3.7 -4.5

!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1 8 m!1 m$ 171# C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 ?

!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

F1 16. . 6 7m++06$ 1F7.$0 ;5;5 5 5 mC$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 C$ 1 8 m!1 0 Æ / 8 m! 1m. . 6 7m++0/ Æ0 ;5;5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç / C$ 1 0 + Æ FC# ::# 6 1 # 5 /+ 1 6& 5 8 181 & Å1 #1

-5.7 -5.9 -6.0 -7.9 -8.7 -11.9 5.0 Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨·  ¦´ ¨ ° § ¼ µ¨Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 1.12a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n Ï´§³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£

´¥q 1.12b –

% ? m' 5! m +;5 /! Ç 70

% ? m' 5! m +;5

70% 68% 66% 64% 62% Seasonally adjusted

60% 58%

Normal 56% 54% 52% 50% Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Jul-15

Aug-15

Rubber&Plastic Wood products Electronic Textiles Furniture Electrical Basic Mat Metal products Office automate Leather Food & Bev Precision instru Chemical Mineral Vehicles Machineries Transport Equip Paper Petroleum Tobacco Apparel

ÂœĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°Âœ­.‡. ¯³—¼´Âƒ´¼Ă…ÂŒnƒĂ?´§³Â‰Âƒ´¼Âž§œÂ—¼´¤¯ºÂ—Âą

/! Ç 70 , 6. . 2015 92% 82% 82% 76% 74% 71% 68% 61% 61% 59% 58% 52% 47% 46%

! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 + 0? 6 7m++0 $ I ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 E 8+ 0 F1+ 8 5 7m 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 2 15$ 6 Ă…1+ 8 6 7m++0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 +! ;5? V m 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç F1 16. . E 88 5 95 6 0 ! + m +FC# ) 6 / Æ6 00 # 86 1 # m 0# 5 5 /+ 1 6& 6$ 16 1 # + Æ 1 $ 7$0 0 ! + m +FC# ) ' Æ / Æ6

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Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â˜°Â˜­¾ŽÂ„ŒŒ¤Â…°ÂŠĂ…ÂšÂĽÂ˜¡Â—¨Â?Ă‚¨³°¼Ÿnà „º°Â?Ϋʊšo¾¼à ¤ ÂŒ´¼q— 1.13 – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Âž§Âž§œÂ—¯º—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 5$ 6

Vietnam Ͳ Sep China Ͳ Aug Malaysia Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jul

5

Pakistan Ͳ Jul

4.7

India Ͳ Jul

4.2

Euro Area Ͳ Jul

1.9

Australia Ͳ Q2

1.2

US Ͳ Aug

0.9

Japan Ͳ Aug

0.2

Philippines Ͳ Jul

-0.5

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

-1.3

South Korea Ͳ Jul

-3.3

Russia Ͳ Aug

-4.2

Taiwan Ͳ Aug

-5.5

Singapore Ͳ Aug Thailand Ͳ Aug

-7.1 -8.3

Brazil Ͳ Jul -9.0 Source: The Economist

¤º°Ă‰ š¸¼Â?„´Â?žŒ³à š°ºĂ‰ÂœĂ‡

10.1 6.1 6.1

!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1E5m ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1F1 m$ 171# ? !C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1 + / $ I ?# 0 55$ 6 + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &

5.7

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ 8 5' ! 0 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 F1 + / $ I m0 m 1# 8 ;5;5 6 7m++0? /8 Å171 Æ F1 + / / Æ7 ! F1 15$ 6

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Recommended Video

oµ » ¤¸Áª¨µ 2 ´ªÃ¤ É Á¦µ °Â ³ εª¸ ø ° ¸Ê Á¡º°É ¼¡ ʺ µ Á¦º°É ´ªÁ¨ Á«¦¬ · ¹ É ³ nª¥Ä®o » °nµ ¦µ¥ µ ° Á¦µÅ o­³ ª ¥· É ¹ Ê http://goo.gl/g1oOka

15

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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16

Ä Á º° ­. . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ¥´ ® ´ªÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ´¥q 1.14a – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯

´¥q 1.1

(2010 = 100)

% m + 5 Æ81

125.0

NonͲre

120.0

2014 115.0

Se 110.0

2015

NonͲdu

105.0 100.0

SemiͲdu 95.0

Composite

90.0 85.0

Du 80.0

J

F

M

A

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Â?ž¸ „n°Âœ ĂƒÂ—ÂĽĂ ÂŒ¥¾³Ă„Âœ­¡ÂœÂ‡oÂľ

4b – ¼´¤ÂŠm´¤Âƒ´¼ÂœÂĽÂśĂ„¢Â†Â™¡ĂŠ Ă?´Â†ÂłÂ?

1 5 m 1m$ 1, 6. . 2015

sident

38.6

ervices

6.6

rables

3.9

rables

1.8

!C1 m + + Eo mC1 Å1 !C1 C /Ç / m + Eo + Eo ? o mC1 E 8

' 1 2 m 5 & + m 75!m # m$ !C1 m +FC# $ 8 6 1 # 0$ /1 ( + m # 8 !C1 # 5 m Nielsen’s FMCG + 0 2m +FC# C Ç 95 + o/ $ I 5 + 0 2 m +FC# ::# o

+! + 1) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ç m Æ /1 ( + m # 88

# 5 m6 Æ / + Æ 1 $ 7$0 5 + 0 2 m +1' ?# 6 Æ / + Æ 1 $ 7$0) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ç /1 ( + m # 8 8 ' 71$ 8+n81 &1 !Æ +n !m+8 181 & 5 +n81 & C 9 2 C8&) !C1 m +FC# $ 8o + m + ( + m # 8 o ( 0 5 $ 9 0Æ m5 $0E+ +0 5 o! + 5 8 ? 8 + m +o

01 0?16$ ) 5 !C1 m +FC# $ 8? 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C ( + m # 8 ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C ) ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2010 Å1 , 1 0 m + ;8 9+$ Å1+ 8 1 5 $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Æ +! V m 5 5#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

Index

-1.4

F1 16. . m + + Eo o mC18! 7 ! E 8 >9 F16 1 # /1

rables -9.5

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17

µ¦¨ » £µ Á° Á¦·¤É ¢ºÊ ´ª

´¥q 1.15a – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯

´¥q 1.15b

(2010 = 100)

% m + 5 Æ81

121.0

Domestic M (2010

120.0

2015

2014

C p

119.0

118.0

117.0

Import (201

116.0

Constructio 115.0

Domestic Sa

114.0

J

F

M

A

M

J

Note: (*) figures are 1-month delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand

J

A

S

O

N

D

b – ¼´¤ÂŠm´¤Âƒ´¼§Â‰Â™ÂşÂ›Â™¡ĂŠÂŹĂ?´Â†ÂłÂ?

!C1 m +5 / 1o mC1

5 m 1m$ 1, 6. . 2015

Machinery sales* prices, Baht)

14.8

onstruction Area permitted (sqm)

3.5

Composite Index

2.7

Å1 !C1 C /Ç / m +5 / 1o mC1 !C1 + m # 8 5 & + m # m$ 9 1Ç / Æ #+! 1 . m$ 6+# /! Æ + / !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 !6 m$ 6+# F1 + / m + 1' ?# 6 1 # / 1 2 + / Æ 2553 + 0 2m + ' 71$ 8 + Æ !m+ 5 m+2&F1 + / 2 + / Æ 2553 5 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8+n81 & 9 Æ m +5 / 1F1 + / $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Æ +! V m 5 5 >5 Æ8 5 Æ 1/ Æ 3 1 8m #19 1Ç / Æ+! 1 . m$ 6+# DÆ >5 Æ8 5 Æ 1/ Æ 9 1 ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2553 Å1 , 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

of Capital Goods 0 prices, Baht)

on Material Sales Index

0.6

-0.7

6' 7+! F1 1m Ç +5 / 1 6 6!.. 2: Ç 1 ! E 8 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 + Æ !m+F1 + / 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 m/ Æ6 $+n81 & 9 Æ m +9 2 C8&DÆ $ 1?# m Æ8 1 Æ m! - +m ?1 5Gm 8! 7 !

c Commercial Car -7.9 ales Index

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18

µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °

´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª 5# 1 55 +&67+!,)

´¥§ º 6,000

15,936 14,747

5,000

12,899 4,000

3,000

8,562 6,411

2,000

3,720

1,000

2,474 0

08FY

Source: BOT

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

°ÂŠÂž¸

m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + /

›Ä–¤Â—¼‰Š´ÂƒÂ—Â?™.²£¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

2014

2015

m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / (Foreign Direct Investment : FDI) Å1- +m++0m +5 / 1/ Æ; #5 / 1/ Æ 0 n1 Æ , 1 m $ + / 0 $ - +m / Æ0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / + m # 8 15 / 1F1/ 1 + 17 #1 (Equity capital) DÆ 70 8n m +5 / 1 # 8m +n 7 #1/ Æ0 6 /- Ê +$ 0F1m + + 7 +m m + ! Ç $+# 85 10 ? 1Ç m + m #8 0+ 7 $ + (!/F1 + 5 m' +/ Æ1' m5! 0 5 / 1 ! /' E 8- /. C +& D# 8 6 0 5 $ m +5 / 1 E 8 + m /.+ 8 C +& ? 6 0 5 $ 6 60 + 8 1F1 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +5 / 1E 8 + m /. 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 1 0 ?

J

F M A M

J

J

A

S O N D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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19

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ­· · ø °Å°¨ ¨ ° ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ 9!15# 1 /

1,023

648 525 396 236

10FY

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

13FY

14FY

°¼n¾Š¤¾Â„Ă„ÂœÂ?nªŠš¸Â&#x;É nÂľÂœ¤¾

ÂœÂŹÂśÂ™Âšœ œĂ‚ÂŞÂŤÂœ¡Ă„¯Æ¯ 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1E 8 + m /.6 /- /Æ 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 ( E m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / / Æ6 /# 1F16n m + 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 (6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 m

2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 0 1 8 0 $ Å1 E + m +/ Æ0 ; #n 7 #1 Å1C $ + / 0$1# 8m $ 10% ? / 1 / 81

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0 5 $ m +5 / 1E 8 + m /./ Æ? +! 6 /- E 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? 1 Ç E 8F1 6 1 +m0 0 5 $ 9 8 45 9!15# 1 / /$ 1!1Ç

261

45

2014/6M

2015/6M

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20

Â?¸ÂžĂ‰ Âťn ÂœĂ ÂžĂˆ œžŒ³à šš¸¤Ă‰ ¾¨ÂŠÂšÂťÂœĂƒÂ—ÂĽÂ˜ÂŚÂŠĂ„ÂœĂ…Âš¼¤¾Â„š¸­Ă‰ ÂťÂ—Ă‚Â˜nÂŚ °¼n¾Š¤¾Â„

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.16 – £§Â†m´Ă„Â†ÂĽÂ‰Âƒ´¼§Â‰Â™ÂşÂ›Ă„–¤Â—¼‰Š´ÂƒÂ—Â?™.™¡ĂŠÂŹÂŁÂłÂ†ÂĽĂ‚„n´¼³ÂœÂŹÂśÂ™Âš 6! 6$ 1 m0 5 $ 5 / 1/! Ç 70

11%

Others

27%

4% 10%

USA ANIEs ASEAN Europe

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

21%

25

2% 6% 10%

13

7%

7%

7%

10

17 58%

Japan

49%

54%

29

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

13FY

14F

Œ³¼³Ž¨´ÂŠ­´Â—­nÂŞÂœ¨Â—Âœo°¼¨ÂŠ

šœ œĂ‚ÂŞÂŤÂœ¡Ă„¯Æ¯

5%

6! 6$ 1m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / 8m + 8 + / 18%

14%

3%

%

14%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0%

7%

6! 6$ 1? 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1 m $ + / / Æn m 61 ? +! 6 /- 9 ( m 2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m + 5 / 1 $ 0+ 8 + / / Æ0 8$ +mG ! 5?/ Æ 6 1!1Ç 0 m +1! DËÇ F1E + m +/ Æ0 ; #n 7 #1 $ C m 171 Æ 6!.C

31%

. Æ $ 1 Å1 + / / Æ0 5 / 1E 8 + F1 /80 m/ Æ6

0# $ F1 5$ 6 0 6! 6$ 15 5

5%

9%

FY

17%

2015/6M

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21

—´Â?Âœ¸°­´ÂŠŽ¾Œ¡¤ÂšŒ´¥¼r­nÂŞÂœĂ„ÂŽÂ?n¨Â—¨ÂŠĂ„ÂœÂ?nªŠš¸Â&#x;É nÂľÂœ¤¾Â…°ÂŠÂž „Œ³à Â˜ÂşĂŠ °ÂŠÂ…šĂŠ ÂœĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂ„.‡. ÂŒ´¼q— 1.16a – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¯³Â‰­´¼œ£Â™¼³ ¤q

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.16b

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 7 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81

Condo unit registered

17.8

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

Value of land transaction

-3.8

1

-7.0

-9.2

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

1.2

žœ¸ĂŠ Ă‚Â˜nà Œ¡¤Ă‰ ¤¸­Â? ´ Â?¾–

b – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¯³Â‰­´¼œ£Â™¼³ ¤q

5 m 1m$ 1, m. . 2015

!C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !. 17.8

41.4

! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.F1C$ #1 n 1 ! !1 / 8 m! + 8 $ 8 8 m!1F1C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# ! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.F1C$ 15$ 6 / 8 m! 1m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

!C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&6$ 1F7.$5 5 F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? 1 Ç $ + 0Æ 0 6!.. 2m+ Ç ? 1Ç F1 1m. . E 8 1E 0 1 808! E #

2.0

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22

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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23

»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ ¸É¨ ¨ ¤µ ªnµ

´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.03b

8 1 +m, 9!15# 1 /

8 1 +m, 9!1

6,000

160

5,000

140

120

4,000 2014

3,000

100

2015 -2.9%

-6.2%

80

-4.9

2,000 60 1,000 40 0 20 -1,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

0

Expo

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

„¾Œ­nŠ°°Â„

b – –º§Âƒ´¼Â†n´Ă…ݠm´Ă‚‰œ›–¯§§´¼q­¼³Â’Âą

15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

9%

ort

5m + # Å1?# 0 5m + # + 7 $ + / / Æ #+! mm+0 5m m+ m+ /+ m + 5! ! /' F1+ 6n /Æ 6 n - +m++0m + 5 Æ 18# 86 1 # m ? +(,m ? + C 2 !m+ /8 1 m + C 2 !m+ 7+ 5 Æ 18# 86 1 # m1 m + C 2 !m+ ?# 0 F1+ C 2 !m+ /8 F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Æ E 8 + 5 06 1 # / m+ 8m +

5m + # F1+ 1 Ç 0$ /$ m! F1+ / Æ 6 F1C +& ?

5m +CË + 1 1 Æ m0 - ' 1 2/ Æ $ m!1F1 + 8m + C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? 5m + # # m$m +1' 0 5 $ m +6$ m6 1 # 5 # 80 5 $ m +1' ?# 6 1 #

-8.2%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

5m + # ?1 Ç 6 7 75!m mm +1' ?# / Æ5 5 0 mm $ m +6$ m

–

Import

=

Trade balance

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24

„¾Œ­nŠ°°Â„¨Â—¨ÂŠ 2.9% Ă„Âœ 8 à —º°ÂœĂ‚Œ„…°ÂŠ 2015 ĂƒÂ—ÂĽ ­¡ÂœÂ‡o¾à Â„ÂŹÂ˜ÂŚĂ ÂžĂˆ œ˜´ªÂŒÂť —Ž¨´Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.05a – ƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒÂ—´£Âƒ§ºm£œ›†n´

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.05b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 8 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Total export Optical instru Other export Jewellery Automotive Machinery Photo instru Other manufacturing Electrical Electronics Forestry Metal Agro products Apparels Toiletries Footware Agriculture Furniture PetroͲchemical Fishery Aircrafts Chemicals Petroleum ReͲexports Mining

-2.9 17.9 13.4 6.8 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.4 0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -3.2 -5.8 -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 -8.3 -8.9 -14.4 -21.5 -21.7 -22.3 -29.6 -52.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Total export Automotive Machinery Other export Jewellery Optical instru Other manufacturing Electrical Photo instru Forestry Footware ReͲexports Furniture Metal Electronics Toiletries Fishery Apparels Aircrafts Mining Agro products Agriculture PetroͲchemical Chemicals Petroleum

¼ž¡ ĂƒÂ˜Œà ¨¸¼¤Ă‚¨³à ‡¤¸Œª¤Âš´ĂŠÂŠ ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Âƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒ

$ ? m +6$ m+ 0/ Æ0 m6 1 # $ I -2.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +6$ mF1C$ / Æ;$ 1 0 ? C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 1 /? m +6$ mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# C +& # 1? 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E ? m +6$ mE 8+ 0 / Æ0 mm +6$ m 0m5 $06 1 # $ I

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +6$ m5 5 2.9% F1 8 1 +m? 2015 E 8 E + 5 80 5 0 + 0/! Ç 6 1 # m( + Å1 ! >

75!m

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„¾Œ­nŠ°°Â„Ă„ÂœÂŚÂźÂžĂ ÂŠ¡ÂœÂ?ÂľÂšÂŽÂ—Â˜´ªĂ„ÂœĂ Â„º°Â?ÂšÂťÂ„Â˜¨¾Â—¼„à ªoœœ

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.07a – ƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒÂ—´£Â?¼²Ă‚™ªÂ?§´¤Â™´Â‰

ÂŒ´¼q— 5

6! 6$ 1 $ m +6$ m+ 0F1+ 1 /

% m + 5 ᪛ 7.3 (Trillion)

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

᪛ 6.9

Rest of the world

18.1

17.4

18.1

16.7

Middle East

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.2

Japan

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

9.6

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

10.3

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

12.0

East Asia ex-Japan

20.4

21.0

21.0

21.2

20.3

ASEAN

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

26.1

100% =

EU NAFTA

16.5

Rest of

East Asi

M 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

14FY

Âœ¾¢Â˜oÂľ

5.07b – ƒ´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Â„ÂŻÂ‰Âƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒ

5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 8 1 +m? 2015 NAFTA

7.2%

f the world

-2.0%

EU

-3.6%

ASEAN

-3.7%

a ex Japan

-4.7%

Japan

-5.1%

Middle East

5 8/ m +6$ m C +& 6 0 5 $ m +6$ m (F1+ 1 /) $ 6! 6$ 1 0 + / 5 8/ C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +6$ m6 $ $5 5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +6$ mF1+ 1 /7 ! F1 m / m 5 8m #1 1 : #

-12.0%

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„¾ŒÂœĂŽ¾à Â…o¾¨Â—¨ÂŠ 6.2% Ă„Âœ 8 à —º°ÂœĂ‚Œ„…°ÂŠ 2015 ­¾à Ž ¥¨´ÂŠÂŠÂľÂœÂš¸¨Ă‰ —¨ÂŠ¤¾Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.09a – ƒ´¼Â›Ă?´Ă‚„n´Â—´£Âƒ§ºm£œ›†n´

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.09b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 8 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

Total import

Total imp

-6.2

Others

7.7

Consumer goods

7.2

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

0.8

Capital goods

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

-0.8

-34.0

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Consumer goo

Oth

Intermediate Ͳ Non f

Capital goo

Intermediate Ͳ F

Ž˜Ž¨´Â„¤¾Â‹ÂľÂ„„¾ŒÂœĂŽ¾à Â…oÂľ

ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰Âƒ´¼Â›Ă?´Ă‚„n´

? m +1' ?# + 0/ Æ0 m6 1 # $ I

ort

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +1' ?# F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ?

-6.2

ods

0.6

ers

0.6

uel

0.3

ods

uel

C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1? 0 5 $ m +1' ?# F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 71# C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E E 8+ 0 / Æ0 ;50 mm + E F1m5 $06 1 # $ I

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +1' ?# 5 5 6.2% F1 8 1 +m? 2015 6 7 75!m0 mm +1' ?# 95! 1/ Æ5 5 0 m

-0.2

-7.5

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­¡ÂœÂ‡o¾…´ĂŠÂœÂ„¨¾ÂŠĂ‚¨³­¡ÂœÂ‡oÂľÂšÂťÂœ¤¸­Â—´ ­nÂŞÂœ­ŸÂŠ¤¾Â„Â…šĂŠ Âœ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.08 – ³–mŠÂ›Âƒ´¼Â›Ă?´Ă‚„n´ 6! 6$ 1 $ m +1' ?# + 0F1+ 1 / 100% =

ŃŽ 5.9

ŃŽ 7.0

ŃŽ 7.8

ŃŽ 7.7

Others

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.2

Capital goods

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.3

Intermediate – Non-Fuel

44.0

40.0

37.5

35.7

Intermediate - Fuel

17.4

18.9

18.9

20.8

Consumer goods

7.5

7.5

7.8

8.0

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

ŃŽ 7.4

ŃŽ 4.6

8.1

8.7

(Trillion)

6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# 24.2

25.4

0 5 $ m +1' ?# (F1+ 1 /) $ 06! 6$ 1 0 5!m(2 / +(,m ? m5 $06 1 #

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

6 1 # ?!1Ç m5 5 6 1 # / 10 6! 6$ 16 0 m? 1Ç 38.3

40.7

20.8

15.5

8.7

9.6

14FY

15/8MO

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Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÄ Á º° ­. .Å o¦ ´ ¨ ¦³ µ Á® »

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ 5# 1 +! Ç

26.5

CAGR

10.6%

24.8 22.4 19.2 15.9

14.5 11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

Source: Department of Tourism

„¾ŒÂ–rŒ³à Â?¡Â—

¤¯Â–¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

' 1 11!m/$ / 8Æ 3.0

C +& D# 80 6 ' 1 1 +! Ç F1m + ?# 0 F1 + / /8? 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C + 8 C +& ? 0 6 8 6 60+ 8 1? ! !1 5 m$ 171# + 0 5E 8m+0m +/$ / Æ8 E 8FC# ?# 0 5 m 6' 1!m 1 + 1 ?# 0

2015 2.5

2.0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

2014

1.5

' 1 11!m/$ / Æ8 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 25% F1 16. . 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 DÆ ! + m + 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 1 5Ç 5 mF1 1m. . DÆ E #6 n 53% m m$ 171#

1.0

0.5

0.0

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Âœ´Â„šn°ÂŠĂ š¸¼Ă‰ ª‹¾„‹¸ ÂœĂ‚¨³¤¾à ¨à ÂŽ¸¼à Â…o¾¤¾à ¥¡¤Ă‰ Â…šĂŠ Âœ¤¾Â„š¸Ă‰­Â—Ă„Âœ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.19a

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.19b

ŠĂ?´Â›ŠÂ›Â†ÂĽÂłĂ‹Â‰Ă…›ƒ´¼Ă‚„n´£´Â„ÂŻÂ‰Â›ÂłÂƒÂ™m¯‰Â™¡ĂŠ¤Š ĂƒÂœm‰—´£³Â?ÂŒ´Â—Âś

10 ÂŻÂłÂ›Â–ÂłÂœÂ„ÂŻÂ‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ £´ÂƒÂ™¡ĂŠÂŹÂşÂ–Ă‚£šĂŠÂŻĂ‚™¡¤ÂœÂƒ

6! 6$ 1? /! Ç 70

8 1 +m 2015, 9!1

Rest of world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.6 5.3

27.9

51.2

14.7 5.0

26.5

53.8

13.8 4.8

25.3

56.0

11.9

11.9

China

4.4

4.5

Malaysia

23.8

59.9

24.8

58.8

Hong Kong Korea

164.9

Taiwan

164.9

Vietnam

145.7

Singapore

127.5

Japan

122.4

India

104.8

USA 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

203.6

63.9

ÂœÂ?nªŠš¸Â&#x;É nÂľÂœ¤¾Â…°ÂŠÂž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ

™ª™¡ĂŠ£¡ÂŠĂ?´Â›ŠÂ›Âƒ´¼Ă‚„n´£´Â™m¯‰Â™¡ĂŠ¤ŠĂ‚ œĂŠÂŁ ÂƒÂłÂœÂŒmŠÂ‰Ă‚–¡¤ŠÂƒÂłÂ›Â„¯‰Â?d™¡ĂŠĂƒ§nŠ

+! Ç

' 1 11!m/$ / 8Æ 06!.C 2,809.1 850.8

6! 6$ 1? 1!m/$ / Æ8 06!.C m ' 1 1 +! Ç F1m + ?# 0 /$ / Æ8 /! Ç 70

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

6

6! 6$ 11!m/$ / Æ8 06!.C 0$ 5 Æ81 5 0 m 1!mF1+ 8 7m 75! 1!m/$ / Æ8 m C 8 !1 m ?# 0 Å16! 6$ 16 / Æ6 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç + Æ 8I F1+ 8 7m 75! 6' 7+! F1 11 Ç !m/$ / Æ8 m 1 5 0 5 D 8 ?# 0 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 m/ Æ6

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ ¨ °¸ Ä Á º° ­. . ¨³¥´ °¥¼n 뵃 ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70

1

1.83

1

1.51

1.49 1.38

1

1.38

0

1.04 0.84 0.68

0.66

0

0.72

0

0

0 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

ÂŞnÂľ 1% ! + m + $ 1

' 1 2 mm +m +6' + o m +/' 1? + C m+ DÆ 6' 1!m 16n 7$ C Å1; # ' 1 1m +6' + 5 + 0 5;5 ! + m + $ 1 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 1 7 + # 8 ' 1 1m' 5! + 1 ; # $ 1 70 8n

5/ Æ0 8 15 ?1 Ç 5 F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + 0 5!m(2 8$ 71 Æ 8$ F ! $ 1 Ç 0$ #/' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' $ #7 1 60! + 17+ + m + ++ F1 + 7 $ 30 !1 m$ 1 !16!0o (2& 0$ #/ ' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' 5 0$ #7 1/' F1+ 7 $ 30 !1m$ 1 !1 6!0o (2& $9+# 0/ Æ /' 1F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + m' 5! + 1+ 0 70 8n

5/ m 1/ Æ0 8 15 ?1 Ç F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + Å1; # 8 $F1m' 5! + 1 ! !1 7+ Å1; #n m ! ' 1m 8 $F1 + o/m' 5! + 1 / Æ+ V m 5

‹§¡ĂŠ¤¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

1.40

1.20

1.00

2015

0.80

0.60

2014

0.40

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + m + $ 15 5 mF1 16. . 5 8! 8 $ ' Æ m $ 1%

0.20

0.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D

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°´Â˜ÂŚÂľÂ„¾ŒªnÂľÂŠÂŠÂľÂœĂ„ÂœÂžŒ³à ÂšÂŤĂ…ÂšÂĽÂ˜ĂŽÂľĂ‰ ¤¾Â„à ¤º°Ă‰ à š¸¼Â?„´Â?žŒ³ ÂŒ´¼q— 2.09 – ¯³—¼´Âƒ´¼Šm´Â‰Â‰´Â›Ă…›Â?¼²Ă‚™ª—m´Â‰Ăˆ mm +6' + 5$ 6 , % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70

Thailand Ͳ Aug Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jul

1.0 2.0 3.2

Hong Kong Ͳ Aug

3.3

Japan Ͳ Jul

3.3

Vietnam Ͳ 2014

3.4

South Korea Ͳ Aug

3.4

Taiwan Ͳ Aug China Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2013 US Ͳ Aug Russia Ͳ Aug Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Pakistan Ͳ 2014 Australia Ͳ Aug Philippines Ͳ Q3 Brazil Ͳ Aug Euro Area Ͳ Jul Source: The Economist

3.7 4.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5

³à š°ºĂ‰Âœ

! + m + $ 1F1 $5 + / m + + 8 / 8 ! + m + $ 1F1 + / $ I + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + m + $ 1F1 + / /8 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I 5# 8! n $ ' Æ / Æ6 F1?2 / ÆF1 + / 9!41 5# 0 ! + m + $ 1 $ 1?# 6 E 8 >9 F18 E+ED1

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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° Á ¸Ê ¥Ä ¨µ ¸ÄÉ Á º° .¥.

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤ .

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Sep-15

Oct-14

Oct-14

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%

Max

2.50%

Min Oct-14

0.00% Sep-15

Oct-14

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

! + m 8Ç

—¼´Â–ÂŻÂƒĂ‚Âœ¡Ă‹¤Â„n´£Â†šÂ› BIBOR* 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Sep-15

—¼´Â–ÂŻÂƒĂ‚Âœ¡Ă‹¤Ă‚Â‰ÂśÂ›Âƒ§n ƒ Âť †n´ÂŒÂłÂ› Ă‹ –¡ š. ´Â•ÂśÂŒ¤q 10.00%

Max 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç 1E8 8? - /. ( ! +

m 8Ç D Ç 19!1- ! + 1 !1) F1+ 8 5 12 1 5$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç F1 5 m #8 0 1 !1+ 7 $ -1 + F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6

C +& D 6 ! + m 8Ç 1< m 0/+!98&F1 -1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Æ 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç 1m #5 m # C!1Ç

F1-1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Æ 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

# 8 + m

!1 m 1 E1#0m + E / +(,m / Æ 0$ 1!m 5 m + ?$ m!15

$ 1? + / Æ1I /' F7# F1 10 Ç m +5

m 8Ç 1E8 8 5# n 6 +! Ç + 0m!1 0.5% m +5 ! + m 8Ç n Å1m +FC# 1E8 8m + 1F1m +m+ #1 +(,m 7+ m1!871 Æ

0 # $ 2 m++0m +1E8 8m + 10 $ m + E +(,m 8! # m +m +m+ #1 8$ + mG ! + m 8Ç 1E8 8/ Æ 1.5% F1 ! !1 ?# Fm5# 18&0 m 5# 5 ' m! m + ' 1 11E8 85 ! +

m 8Ç 9 Æ m+ #1 +(,m F1 1

0.00% Sep-15 Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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35

¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨Á · n µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °

´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 2500

2000

2015 1500

1000

500

0

D

J

F

M

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

A

M

J

J

A

Šž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ

+ 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 +!, 58! 0 098 8 0 +$ m + m $ 8 + 0 2 9 Æ m +m+ #1 +(,m E 8F1C$ 8 1/ Æ;$ 10 0 + 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 12% 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? /Æ 5#

2014

m +FC# $ 8o +!,6 0 +nm+ #1m + E / +(,m # $ 7+ 8. m # 1mG 1!8m + 5! DÆ + # F1 + Æ 5 + 0 2m!1 m/

S

O

N

D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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36

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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37

£µ »¦ · ¨³°» ­µ® ¦¦¤¤° è Ä Â n¦µo ¥¥· É ¹Ê Ä Á ´¥q 1.18a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³Ê º¥ ¶ *

´¥q 1.18b

100

200

Better

50

Better

100

52.4

50.3

49.1

45.2

46.4

46.4

87.7

Worse

86

Worse

0

0 Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

Mar-15

Apr

Note: (*) Below is t Index = 1 Index > 1 Index < 1

—º°Âœ­.‡.

0 C Æ 0!1Æ - +m

– Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Â†Š´£Ă‚ÂŒšĂŠÂŻÂŁÂłĂŠÂ›¢´Â†ÂŻÂşÂ—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ**

6.2

85.4

84.0

83.0

82.4

C +& 6 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ o - +m ! /' E 8m +6' + ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 mm5 $0 ! 8$ 1,500 + 8 E 8 m +6' + + 0Æ 6$ 6 n 0F1C$ 6! 7&6 /# 8? 1/ Æ6' + 5 + + 0 + 0 5;5F16! 7&/Æ 3 ? 1n! !C1 0 $ /$ m! 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m /+ ! ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) !C1 0 $ 0 mm $ 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m ?1 Ç ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 0 mm $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$ 5 ) !C1 0 $ 1# 8m $ 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m 8$ ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 1# 8m $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) C +& 6 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ o 6 7m++0 ! /' E 8 6o 6 7m++0 7$ + / /8 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! ' Æ m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0 6o 9 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ 0$ $

!C1 8 $F1+ ! 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++0 0 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$0 m + 5 Æ81 5 7+ 8 $F16o 9/+ ! F1+ ! 0 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 6 m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0 6o 9 ?1 Ç 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

r-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

the interpretation of the index: 00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable 00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved 00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

o - +m 5 6 7m++00 E5mF1 $+# 88 Æ ? 1Ç F1 16. .

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Â&#x;ÂźÂ?o Œ¡ĂƒÂŁÂ‡¼´ÂŠÂ‡ÂŠ¤°ÂŠĂƒ¨Â„Ă„ÂœĂ‚ÂŠnÂŚÂľo ÂĽĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°Âœ­.‡. ÂŒ´¼q— 1.17 – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Â†Š´£Ă‚ÂŒšĂŠÂŻÂŁÂłÂ› ĂŠ žnÂœÂĽÂśĂ„¢Â† 100

100

Overall

Better

On job

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

(*) 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0-100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I ?1 Ç 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$ 5 Æ81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 F$ 1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Æ m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$ Source: Ministry of Commerce

!C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ ; # + Eo

100

On future income

Better 50

! /' E 8m+ /+ 9 2 C8& m 6 n 0 ! 8$ m + C C1/! Æ + / 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0

0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I ?1 Ç 7+ 8 $F1+ !

n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0

0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$ 5 Æ81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 $F1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Æ m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$

Worse

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

; # + Eo 8! 0 E5mF1 $+# 8F1 16. . E 8 !C1

0 C Æ 0!1Æ ; # + Eo 75!m 8 $/Æ 34.6 DÆ 8! ' Æ m $ ! / Æ 50 C$ 1 8 m! !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ # 1m +7 1 5 + 8 #F1 1 0 Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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. ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · à ° ´Ê ¸ ¸Ê ¨³ ¸ ® Á® » µ¦ r¦³Á · ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

´¥q 1.03b –

6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $

6' 7+! 2016, % m + 6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

NESDB The Economist poll

FPO

4.00

3.50

3.00

BOT

2.50

2.00 F-15

M-15

A-15

M-15

J-15

J-15

A-15

S-15

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

F-15

M-15

A-1

Foreca

Âœo¾¨ÂŠ°¸Â„‡ΫʊŽ¨´ÂŠÂ‹ÂľÂ„

Â?¼²£´Â•Âƒ´¼Â•qƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡

4.00

m + + 0 2m +2& ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 F1 ! !1 5 $ E 871$ 8 1 $ I C$ 1 -1 + 7$ + / /8 (BOT) 6o 9!41&) (NESDB) 6' 1!m 1 +(,m m + 5! (FPO) 5 E955&? 1 86 + E E10 6 & m + + 0 2m +2& 75$ 1 0Ç m + 5 Æ81 5 06n 1m +2& 5 ?# 0 55$ 6

! 1!1Ç 0 m + +! 5 Æ81 8 $ 60 m + +! 5 Æ81 75$ 1 mÇ Gn $ 6 0 +n6 /# 10 00 $ 6o +(,m Ç 71# ? 6' 1!m $ I # C +& # 6 m + + 0 2m +2&? $5 6' 1!mF1 $5 C$ 5 # 9 Æ m + + 8 / 8 5 8# 175!

3.50

m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6

5 Æ81 5 $

15

6.00

5.50

5.00

The Economist poll

BOT

+ 0 2m +2&m + E ? 9

4.50

3.00

2.50

- /. +! 5 + 0 2m +2&m + E ? /! Ç 1 Ç 5 71# 5 m +! Ç 75! m 7 m +2&+ 6' 7+! m + + 0 2m +2&m + E 9 ? 6' 1!m $ I 8 $ + 7 $ 2.7-3.5% 6' 7+! 2015 5 3.7-4.1% 6' 7+! 2016

2.00 M-15

J-15

J-15

A-15

S-15

ast as of, month ending

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­Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2015 ¨³ 2016 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ ª ¨µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

´¥q 1.04

6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 30/9/2015

6' 7+! 2016,

India China Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Singapore South Korea Australia Hong Kong US Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia

India China 6.9 Vietnam 6.6 Philippines 6.3 Malaysia 5.7 Indonesia 5.4 Pakistan 4.8 Thailand 3.5 Singapore 3.4 South Korea 3.1 Taiwan 2.6 Australia 2.4 US 2.4 Hong Kong 2.4 Euro Area 1.4 Japan 0.8 7.5

-1.9 -3.6

Source: The Economist

Russia Brazil

0.3 0.2

ÂŞr n¾‹³à ˜¡Â?ĂƒÂ˜Ă…Â—oĂ„ÂœÂŚÂłÂ—´Â?ÂžÂľÂœ

b – Â?¼²£´Â•Âƒ´¼Â•qƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡ % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 30/9/2015 7.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.2 4.7 4.1 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.7

m + + 0 2m +2&m + E m.F1 + / $ I m + m +2&m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 F1 ? +(,m $ I/ Æ6' !.? E5mE 8E955&? 1 86 +

E E10 6 & 6 0 +nFC# / 8 ! + m + E F1 $5 ? +(,m # 0 m + ;8 9+$/ mI6! 7&F11 86 +

E E10 6 &

m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6

6' 7+! 2015 5 2016 +(,m /8n m m +2& $ E #F1+ ! 1m5 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I E 8 1 8n m $ E 6 / Æ6 F1 ++ +(,m ?1 F7.$ 6 m $ 1/ Æ + C0 &m + E 6 / Æ6 0 5 F1+ 8 75!

2.6 2.1 1.7 1.5

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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Ä Á º° .¥. ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ´ªÉ Å ¥´ Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ Á º°É ¤µ µ ¨ ° ¦µ µ¡¨´ µ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢

´¥q 3.07b

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Veg

1.50%

Tobacco & a

Food away from

1.00%

Recreation & Edu

Core* 0.50%

Prepared food at

Medic

Non alcoholic bev 0.00%

Apparel and foo

Sea -0.50%

-1.00%

Housing & furn

Head line -1.50%

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Eggs

Transport & C

˜¡Â—¨Â?‹¾„ž¸ „n°ÂœÂŽÂœoÂľ

b – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¼´Â†´ÂžÂťnÂœÂĽÂśĂ„¢Â†¼´¤Âƒ§ºm£œ›†n´

5 m m$ 171# , m.8. 2015 & fruit

5.9

!C1 + ; # + Eo

!C1 + ; # + Eo Å1 !C1 /Æ m+ ! + /! Æ ? 6 1 # 5 + m +/ Æ; # + Eo FC# $ 8 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo Å1/ Æ1 80FC# F1m + ! ! + 1 :# ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8&

alcohol

2.1

m home

1.8

ucation

1.3

t home

1.0

al care

0.9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

verage

0.5

otware

0.5

soning

0.3

F1 1m.8. !C1 + ; # + Eo /! Æ 8! 5 Æ81 5 5 m m$ 171# 1 Æ 0 m;5? + 95! 1 $ 0 Æ !C1 + 6 1 # m5 $0 Æ1mG8! 9 $ 6$ 1F7.$ 9 0Æ ? 1Ç m m$ 1

Meat

0.3

Rice

0.2

nishing

0.1

& milk

-1.5

Commu

Energy

-7.1 -16.6 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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44

Á n Á ¸¥ª ´ ¥¼Ã¦ Å o®ª´ ­· à ¦r ¦³Á «Å ¥¤¸ ´ ¸¦µ ® oµ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Ä§ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

Latest

Russia Ͳ Aug

15.8

Brazil Ͳ Aug

9.5

Indonesia Ͳ Aug

7.2

India Ͳ Aug

3.7

Malaysia Ͳ Aug

3.1

Hong Kong Ͳ Aug

2.5

China Ͳ Aug

2.0

Pakistan Ͳ Aug

1.7

Australia Ͳ Q2

1.5

South Korea Ͳ Aug

0.7

Philippines Ͳ Aug

0.6

Japan Ͳ Aug

0.2

US Ͳ Aug

0.2

Vietnam Ͳ Sep

0.0

Euro Area Ͳ Sep Taiwan Ͳ Aug Singapore Ͳ Aug Thailand Ͳ Sep Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1

1.

1. 0.9

0.7 0.4

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8

‡¾Â&#x;ÂźÂ?o Œ¡ĂƒÂŁÂ‡¨Â—¨ÂŠÂ‹ÂľÂ„ž¸ „n°Âœ

2015* 14.8 8.6 6.4 5.3 2.5 3.1

1 :# F1E5m m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo F1 + / $ I m + m +2& ! + 1 :# ? /! Ç E 8 E

E10 6 &E955&

5 3.9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

C$ 1 8 m! 8 E+ #7 !1 6 E +& + / /80 !C1 + ; # + Eo 5 5 m m$ 171#

.7

2.4

2.8

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45

¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ¼ o ¨· ¥´ 뵃 ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶

´¥q 3.09

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

% m + 5 Æ81

3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0%

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

C Other manu go Pulp & pa Tex W Leather & footw NonͲmetallic min Mechin Mechin Fore M F Ene Electrical eq Rubber & pla Livesto Chem Basic me Fish Petroleum prod

9b – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¼´Â†´ÂžÂťnž§œÂ—¼´¤œÂ›Â†n´

5 m m$ 171# , m.8. 2015

Crop oods aper xtile Wood ware neral nery nery estry Metal Food ergy quip astic ocks mical etals hing ucts

2.3 2.0 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5

!C1 + ; #;5 ! + 1 :# F1+ ! ; #;5 ! E 8 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 + ; #;5 ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8& C +& 6 n m + 5 Æ81 5 F1 !C1 + 0 5 8m 0+ 8 6 7m++0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ ! ; #;5 8! ' Æ m $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1F1 1m.8. E 8+ ! + ; #;5 F1 15 ' Æ 5 3.6% 5 0 Æ + 86 1 # mG9 $ 6$ 1F7.$0 + ! + / Æ5 5 # 8 C$ 1m!1

-1.6 -2.1 -2.9 -3.0 -4.1 -4.4 -7.3 -28.9 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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47

­· Á ºÉ°¥´ ¥µ¥ ´ªÂ¤oªnµ ³ 뵃 ªnµ nª n° ® oµ ¸Ê ´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9!15# 1 / 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Å­n¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 100% 97.8%

97.2% 96.4%

95.7%

95.7% 94.9%

94.8%

94.5%

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

95%

90% Aug-14

Sep-14

Source: Bank of Thailand

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

5

6 1 C Æ ? -1 +9 2 C8&

Apr-15

M-o-M

Y-o-Y

+0.2%

+4.9%

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

-1 +9 2 C8&/' 71# / Æ+! 1< m 5 5$ 8m # !C1 m + 5$ 8m # $ 1< m/! Ç 70 Å16 Æ / Æ6 /# 1n m + 6!09!1-&? o +(,m / Æ /# + m! o

m + 1 n# !C1 0 $ 6 6 /# 1n m +/ Æ0 E m 6F1 m +5 / 1 ( 5$ 8m #) #0 m n# !C1 0 $ ' Æ mG 6 /# 1n 6n 1m +2& + m!1?# 0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

96.5%

97.1%

6 1 C Æ 8! ?8 8 ! 0# $ ' Æ m $ C$ m$ 171# 1 Ç F1?2 / Æ6o 9 5$ F1+ -1 + + 0Æ ! 5Gm1# 8 E 8 ! + 6$ 1 1F7#6 1 C Æ $ 1< m? -1 + 9 2 C8& 9 0Æ m 96.5% Å1 97.1%

95.4% 94.5%

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15 © ChartingTHAILANDâ„¢

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48

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ´Ê ®¤ ´¥q 3.03a – ­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 9!15# 1 /

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

270

256

267

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

1

2.26%

2.16%

2

12YE

13YE

1

´¥q 3.03b – ­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60% 2.75%

07YE

08YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

09YE

10YE

11YE

­´Â—­nÂŞÂœÂ˜n°¼°Â—à Š¡ÂœÂ„Âź o

71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #

278

4YE

299

312

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

Gross NPLs 70 8n 8

# ? 1F7#6 1 C Æ # 8

2o 9 # m$ 1F7#6 1 C Æ ! C!1Ç ' Æ m $ 0 +, 1 6 6!8 6 6!8 6 . 5 6 . 0 m2A&m + ! C!1Ç ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 C +& 6 71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #? /! Ç + 6n !1m + 1 /! Ç F1+ ! 1 5 6! 6$ 1? 8

5$ 8m #/ ! Ç 70

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 # 9 0Æ ? 1Ç /! Ç F1 # 10 5 $ 5 F1+ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70 F1 +0 6/ Æ6

2.16%

14YE

2.29%

2.38%

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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49

­´Â—­nÂŞÂœĂ ÂŠ¡ÂœÂ„°ÂŠÂšÂťÂœÂ…°ÂŠÂ›ÂœÂľÂ‡¾Œ¥¾Â–¡Â?ÂĽrà ¥¡¤Ă‰ Â…šĂŠ ÂœĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂ„. Œ³—´Â?­ŸÂŠ ÂŒ´¼q— 3.04 – ¯³—¼´mŠÂ›Ă‚Â‰ÂśÂ›ÂƒÂŻÂ‰Â™ÂşÂ›Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂšÂ›´Â†´¼ ´Â•ÂśÂŒ¤q 6! 6$ 1 $ 6 1/+!98& 6 Æ8 2 6 1Ç

15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

15.7%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3% 12.4%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2013

.‡. Ă‚¨³¼´ÂŠÂ™º°ªn¾°¼ŸnĂ„Âœ

• œË›Â–š¯Â› 17.5%

17.0%

! + 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 2015 2014

16.5%

1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& / 81F1 + / 70 8n 6$ 1? ; #n 7 #1 6 1/+!98& 6 Æ8 70 8n 6 1/+!98&n$ 1# 71!m 0 0 6 Æ8 /! Ç 6 1Ç DÆ Å1 8 + 0? + 8m +F1 m + 1/ Æ #n$ 1# 71!m 0

0 0 0 6 Æ8 ( 0 + m - /.) ! + 6$ 1 8 Æ 6 8 Æ 6 n 00!1Æ F1+ -1 +

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

16.0%

6! 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 9 0Æ ? 1Ç Å1 16.9% F1 1m. . DÆ n $ 8 $F1+ ! 6 15.5%

15.0%

14.5%

J F M A M J J A S O N D Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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50

¤¸Ž¨¾¼ÂžŒ³à šš¸¤Ă‰ ¸°Â˜´ Œ¾—°Â„Ă Â?¸ĂŠ ¼š¸Ă‚É šo‹Œ¡ÂŠÂ˜¡Â—¨Â? ÂŒ´¼q— 3.05 – Â?¼²£´Â•Âƒ´¼Â•q¯³—¼´Â–ÂŻÂƒĂ‚Âœ¡Ă‹¤Â™¡ĂŠĂƒÂ™nŠ¼œ‰ 2 !1/ Æ 30/9/2015 3M risk-free interest rates Brazil

ņ

Expected 2015 inf

14.9

Russia

8.6

12.7

Indonesia

8.2

India

7.1

Pakistan

6.6

Vietnam

6.4 5.3 3.9 2.8

4.6

Malaysia

2.5

3.8

China

3.2

Australia

2.4

1.5 1.7

Philippines

1.7

Thailand

1.7

0.8

South Korea

1.6

0.9

2.4

Taiwan

0.9

Hong Kong

0.4

US

0.3

0.4

Japan

0.1

0.7

Euro Area

0.0

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.2 3.1

0.2

flation*

=

Real interest rates 6.3

14.8

-2.1 1.8 1.8 2.7

! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + F1 + / $ I C +& 6 - 71 Æ F1m + ' 1 2 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + E 8 + 0 2m +2& ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + F1 ! !1 = ! + m 8Ç - ! + 1 :# m +2&

1.8 1.3 1.7 0.7

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0 75 8 + / / Æ0 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + 5 6$ 1 + / /8 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + + 0 2 8 $/Æ m 1%

-0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 -2.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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51

Ă„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂ„.ÂĽ. —´Â?Âœ¸ SET žΫÂ?¨Â—¨ÂŠ 2.4% šn¾¤Â„¨¾ÂŠÂ„¾ŒĂ… °¼nÂľÂŠÂŽÂœ´Â„°¸Â„Œ³¨°Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 3.06a – ƒ´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Ă…Â›Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡ SET

ÂŒ´¼q— 3.06c – ƒ´

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m 1m$ 171#

2 !1/ Æ 23/9/2015 China (SSEB, $ terms) France (CAC 40)

1.4%

0.6%

Japan (Nikkei 225) Pakistan (KSE) S Korea (KOSPI)

-2.0%

Apr-15

May-15

-2.4%

Jun-15

-4.3%

-4.0%

Jul-15

Aug-15

US (NAScomp) Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

Sep-15

Germany (DAX) China (SSEA)

ÂŒ´¼q— 3.06b – £§Â†m´Âƒ´¼§Â‰Â™ÂşÂ›²£Â„¯‰—m´Â‰ÂŒ´Â—Âś SET 5 MAI, ! Ç $ #1 n 6 1Ç 1, 9!15# 1 /

US (S&P 500) India (BSE) Australia (All Ord.)

0.0

UK (FTSE 100)

-20.0

Thailand (SET)

-40.0

Malaysia (KLSE) US (DJIA)

-60.0

HK (Hang Seng)

-80.0

Taiwan (TWI)

-100.0

Singapore (STI)

-120.0 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15

Source: SET, The Economist

J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

Indonesia (JSX)

Ă…Ž¨°°Â„Â…°ÂŠĂ Š¡ÂœÂšÂťÂœÂ˜n¾ŠÂ?ÂľÂ˜¡

´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Ă…Â›Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Â›ÂłÂœÂŠ´ÂƒÂŹÂśĂ‹Â›Â?d 2014 9.7% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.4%

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 75!m/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.I C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 + 8 1? !C1 75!m/+!98& SET ? + / /8 C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ ! !C1 75!m/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.I? E5m 1! ! Ç $61 Ç m$ 1 F16m 5 1/# n 1Æ

-0.8% -2.0% -3.7% -5.8% -6.1% -6.6%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

F1 1m.8. !C1 SET +! 5 5 2.4% /$ 0m5 m + 75 m? 1/ 1 $ C 8$ 71!m m+ 5 m 5 C$ 1 8 m!1m! 5 7 #16$ 1F7.$/ !Æ E5m !C1 SET 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ?

-8.1% -8.2% -8.4% -8.7% -9.8% -12.0% -15.4% -18.8% Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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Capturing The Vietnam

Download the presentation http://goo.gl/6FZNS9

m Growth Opportunity

Contact Information FinAdvice Department – Private Fund Tel 02-635-1700 ext. 757, 771, 777 pfadmin@phillip.co.th , fa@phillip.co.th

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ 2

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ · · ·

5 1F1 + 0 2

5 16

1.3%

1.0%

-0.2%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.0%-1.0%

-0.8%

-1.6% -1.9% -2.5%

-3.8% -4.2%

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

2014

5 + 0 2 0 Æ / 8 m! 9

5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1 F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8+!, 5

5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Æ81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 1 70 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5 C +& 6 5 1F1 + 0 2 5 5 16 0 Æ / 8 Å1+# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + /

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-1.9% -2.1%

-2.2%-2.3%

-3.4% -3.8%

12FY

13FY

/! Ç 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?

5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 m +?

5 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 0 $ 0 m? 1Ç 8$ 0 m F1 2009 0 m +?

5 6 / Æ6 0 Æ / 8 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 6$ 1 2012 0 m + ?

5 + 0 26 0 m 0 Æ / 8 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 5 F1+ 10 0 9 8 2009 /$ 1!1Ç / Æ?

50 mm $ m +?

5 + 0 2 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 9 0Æ ? 1Ç F1 2014

14FY Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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55

»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨¤µ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° Á º° ° ¸ 2015 ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ 9!15# 1 / 2,075

¥´¤¥³ 1,241

º§ ¥²£´

-36

1,390

1,751 1,455

1,498

-174

-100

2,076

-267

-295

-2,424

-2,371

1,902

1,484

110 -75

-27

-364

-1,277

2,158

-414

-1,280 -1,629

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-1,930 -2,489

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

°Â?­°ÂŠĂ šnÂľ Ă„Âœ 8 à —º°ÂœĂ‚Œ„

–º§Â‰ÂœÂ?¼²£´Â•²£¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â› 50

5 + 0 2

0

5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m + 8 $ 8+!, 5 C +& ? 0 6 5 + 0 2 6 60+ 8 1? 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#

-50

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-100

2014 -150

5 + 0 2?

50 mm $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 m 6 /$ F1 8 1 +m? 2015

2015 -200

-250

-300

-350 J

F M A M J

J A S O N D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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56

»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨ 71 ¡´ ¨oµ µ ­nª »¨Á · ­ µ Ä nª 8 Á º° ¦ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ¬ 9!15# 1 / º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 88

-27

-36 -45 -75

-95

-100 -96 -144 -174

-266

-364 -401

-414

-4

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

¾——¨ 123 ¥´Âœ¨oÂľÂœÂ?¾š

5 + 0 2 5 5 16

5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8 +!, 5 5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Æ81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 170 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-71 -123

-242 -267 -295 -305

/! Ç 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?

5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 0 5 $ m +?

5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m 8m #1 9 8 2010 6' 7+! F1 Æ1

5 16 m! 5 + 0 20!m 0$ $ m!10 m1!m F1 2012 0 m +?

5F1+ ! 16 6 Ă…1 + ! m +2& 6' 7+! F1 8 1 +m? 2015 5 + 0 2?

5 71 9!15# 1 / 6$ 1 5 16

?

5 123 9!15# 1 /

466

Y

13FY

14FY

'15/8mo Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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57

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ° Å

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È % $ 9 , 70 86' 7+! 2015 South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Philippines

-1.9

Indonesia Thailand

-2.0 -2.0

Euro Area Australia

-2.1 -2.4

US China

-2.6 -2.7

Russia India

-2.8 -3.8

Malaysia

-4.0

Vietnam

-4.2

Pakistan

-5.1

Brazil Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-6.0 -6.8

¼¼´ÂŠÂ™º°ªn¾Å¤n­ŸÂŠ

0.3 0.0 -0.7 -1.1

5 + 0 2+!, 5 $ IF1E5m + 8 / 8 5 + 0 2o +!,? + / / Æ6' !. ? E5m ! F1+ +# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + / mm + m +2&? ; # ?# +$ 0 E E1 0 6 &E955&

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+!, 56$ 1F7.$F1E5mn m m +2& $ ?

5 + 0 2F1 2015 8m #1 9 8 m 75 F # 5 $ m ?1 ? m +?

5) 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 0 0 m/ Æ6 F1. Æ $ 1 5 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I m + ?

5 + 0 2? /8/ Æ 2% ? 9 8! n $ 0$ 6

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58

ÂŽÂœ¸ĂŠ ­¾Â›¾ŒÂ–³à ¥¡¤Ă‰ ­ŸÂŠÂ…šĂŠ ÂœĂ„ÂœÂž¸ 2015 ÂŒ´¼q— 4.5a – ­Â›¡Ă‹´Âš´¼Â•²

ÂŒ´¼q— 4.5b –

5# 15# 1 /

6! 6$ 1 $ 9

6.0

5.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

4.0

3.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

2.0

Direct Government debt

1.0

0.0

2011 8%

2012 8%

2013 7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2014 7%

Jul-15 6%

2011

External debt as percent of total

2012

­Â›¡Ă‹´Âš´¼Â•² 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

25% 20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

2

71 6Ç - +2 71 6Ç - +2 + m # 8 71 /Ç Æ+ !, 5m #E 8 + 71 /Ç Æ +!, 5m # 9 Æ C C8 0 6 87 8F7# m$m / 1 9 Æ m + : Ç 1: ) 71 Ç 1m #5$ 71# 9 Æ +! E + 6+# 71 Ç 71 Ç 6 - +2 m+!, 6 7m 5 71 Ç Æ1I C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ç - +2 0 + o/71 Ç 0 ' 1 1 1 C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ç - +2 0 + o/71 Ç Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

71 6Ç - +2 9 0Æ 6 ? 1Ç 5Gm1# 8F1 1/ Ç ! Ç F1+ ! 1 (5.7 5# 15# 1 /) 5 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 (43%) 6 7 75!m m71 +Ç !, 5m #E 8 + E 871 6Ç - +2 6$ 1 F7.$ Å171 FÇ 1 + / (6m 5 1 /)

5% 0%

2013

2014

Jul-15

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59

ÂŽÂœ¸ĂŠ ­¾Â›¾ŒÂ–³…°ÂŠĂ…š¼Å¤n™°º ÂŞn¾°¼ŸnĂ„ÂœÂŚÂłÂ—´Â?š¸­Ă‰ ÂźÂŠà ¤º°Ă‰ à š¸¼Â?„´Â? ÂŒ´¼q— 4.6 – ­Â›¡Ă‹´Âš´¼Â•²Ă…݀§Âƒ 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 , 2014 ( + 0 2m +2&) 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 4 Lebanon 5 Italy 6 Jamaica 7 Portugal 8 Cyprus 9 Ireland 10 Grenada 11 Singapore 12 Belgium 13 Eritrea 14 Barbados 15 Spain 16 France 17 Iceland 18 Egypt 19 Puerto rico 20 Canada 21 Bhutan 22 Jordan 23 Antigua and barbuda 24 UK 25 Cabo verde Source: CIA fact book

228 181 175 142 134 132 131 119 119 110 107 102 101 101 98 96 94 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 86

39 United 40 C 43 48 Ur 50 Pa 56 63 Ma 67 71 Th 72 Philip 7 80 Vie 93 M 96 Sw 101 Arg 103 South 105 Hong 108 T 126 129 N 133 Indo 137 147 149 N 164 Saudi

Â?¤¾Â˜ÂŚÂ“ÂľÂœÂœÂľÂœÂľÂ?ÂľÂ˜¡

states Croatia 3 Israel ruguay akistan 6 Brazil alaysia 7 India hailand ppines 8 Laos etnam Mexico weden entina Korea g kong Turkey Nepal orway onesia 7 China Russia Nigeria arabia

71 70 67 65 64 59 54 51 49 48 46 46 41 40 38 37 37 37 30 30 24 22 13 12 2

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

71 6Ç - +2 F1E5m 71 6Ç - +2 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 F1 + / $ I + 0 2 m +2&E 8 Central Intelligence Agency ? 67+!,)

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ / 9!41 5# 0 6! 6$ 171 6Ç - +2 $ 9 6 71 Ç 6 - +2 ? /8 0 ! 5? m CIA 8 $/Æ 49% ? 9 F1 2014 DÆ 0$n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ6 0 Æ / 8 m! 0 +, 11 1 C . Æ $ 10 6! 6$ 171 6Ç - +2 $ 9 6 / Æ6 / Æ 228% E 8 + / 6$ 1F7.$/Æ+ ! 71 6Ç - +2 6 0!m 8 $F18 E+

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61

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ­ ³©¯· ¥³Ë Ä ¤Â ´²Å ¬¶ n´ ² • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Å  ¹¯ ¬. • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ ¬. . 粤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥n´¤£´ ¸Ë  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.5% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë 夃 n¯  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯  ¹¯ ¬¯  m´ ¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯  ¶ ´ Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ¯m¯ m´ ©m´ 1%

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

² ·Ê ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© .Æ n¥³ § ¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¢ 15 ç² 3.7-4.1% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤ Å 8  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë

´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Ä 8 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2015 Á · »¨ µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F. 29.8

´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ 9!15# 1 55 +& 10FY

1

31.3

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥

+ -19.7

5.3

4.4

1.2 10FY

-1.2

´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤

-5.0 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/8mo

21.3

10FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

1

1

„„¾Œà „¡ÂœÂ—¨Â„¾ŒÂ‡oÂľ

O.B) 24.6

17.0 6.7

20.9

6.7

E + 6+# 5m +CĂ‹ + 1

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/8mo

¼´¤Ă†Â–nº™šœ -1.5 -8.1

-8.2

-11.8

-9.2

5m +CË + 1 70 8n ;56+ ? m +/' - +m++0 / +(,m + 7 $ ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / m! ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 $ + / F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Æ + m # 8 5m + # 5 + m + 5 + 8 # 5 !.C 1/ 1 5 0 5 5 Æ 16 /-

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

5m +CĂ‹ + 1F1 8 1 +m? 2015 m 1 5 mm + m 1 5m + #

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/8mo

¤Â™ÂşÂ›Ăƒ§²Â†Š´£Â†§´Â–†§šĂŠÂŻÂ›ÂŹÂşÂ™ÂšÂś

6.8

0.1

-7.7

11FY

12FY

13FY

-16.6

-15.0

14FY

15/8mo

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63

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ­³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2015 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2

21.2%

Taiwan Ͳ Q2

12.8%

South Korea Ͳ Jul

7.8%

Russia Ͳ Q2

4.9%

Philippines Ͳ Jun

4.1%

China Ͳ Q2

3.0%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

2.8%

Vietnam Ͳ 2014

2.7%

Japan Ͳ Jul

2.7%

Euro Area Ͳ Jul

2.6%

Malaysia Ͳ Q2

2.5%

Thailand Ͳ Q2

2.4%

Pakistan Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ Q2

-0.7% -1.2%

Indonesia Ͳ Q2

-2.4%

US Ͳ Q2

-2.6%

Australia Ͳ Q2 Brazil Ͳ Aug

-3.2% -4.1%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-429.0

‹¸ —¸¥­¸ nÂŞÂœĂ„ÂŽÂ?nĂ ÂžĂˆ ÂœĂ ÂŤÂŚÂŹÂ“Â„¡Â‹

Last 12 months, USD Billion 69.5

5 !.C 16 9!

72.8

5 !.C 16 9! (Current Account) ;5+ 0 6 /- ? 5m + # 5 + m + + 8 # ,0o 0 5 + 8 #/ 8o 0 C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + m +2&

5 !.C 16 9! F1+ +# 85 ? 9 E 8 E E1 0 6 &E955& C +& # 1? 6 n 5 !.C 16 9!

F1 12 15$ 6 ? $5 + / F1+ 16m 5

55 +&

104.3 65.0 11.7 287.8 7.4 8.9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

107.8 316.9 8.8 24.4 -2.6

+ / / Æ0 5 !.C 16 9! m 1 50 mI 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 6$ 1F7.$ Å1 +(,m m F70$F1 C 8 + / +' Æ + 8F1 !1 m C$ 167+!,)0 , 1 F1+ +(,m E5m Å1; #D Ç 6 /-

-25.9 -21.6

-47.4 -84.5 Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2015 ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

69.0

74.4

76.1

75.3

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

100.6

104.3

10YE

11YE

130.

12YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 6! 6$ 1 $ 9

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

12YE

71 Ç $ + /

7

139.9

140.7

136.6

E

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

71 Ç $ + / 70 8n 8

# 71 6Ç 16$ 1/ Æ 0$FC$ / 1 + 17 #1 / Æ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / m$ ? 1Ç m! ; #0 n1 Æ , 1 F1 $ + / /! Ç 71 6Ç 1/ Æ0 m 8Ç 7+ 0$0 m 8Ç E 80 o + ; m9!1/ Æ # CË + 1 1 #1 E 8+ 0 71 6Ç 1/ m6m 5 1 5 / m + o/? m +m #8 0 + + 0 E 8- /. 5 m ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 C +& 6 F1+ 6m 5 1 55 +& C +& 6 F1+ +# 85 ? 9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

71 Ç $ + / 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m75! 2009 $ + 0Æ 5 5 F1 1 Ç

%

38.2%

E

13YE

34.5%

33.2%

14YE

15/2Q

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65

à ¦ ­¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ ¸ ¹Ê à ¥¤ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ­ ·Ë

´¥q 5.11b – ­

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / /! Ç 70

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + /

o mC1 o +!,

16%

84%

11YE

71 +Ç 8 8 71 +Ç 8 6!1Ç

20%

80%

12YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

18%

82%

13YE

18%

82%

14YE

17% 45%

44%

55%

56%

11YE

12Y

83%

15/2Q

¤¸­Â—´ ­nÂŞÂœÂŽÂœ¸ĂŠ Œ³¼³¼¾ª

­Â›¡Ă‹Â—m´Â‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ª—´£¼²¤²Ă‚Š§´­Â›¡Ă‹

/ /! Ç 70

%

6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + /

43%

40%

40%

6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / $ 0 - $ C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / 05!m(2 ? 5 m71 Ç C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / 0 5!m(2 ? + 8 5 1 1E 8+ 8 8 70 8n 0 mm $ 1 + 8 6!1Ç 70 8n 1# 8m $ 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

E + 6+# 71 Ç $ + / ? /8 5 Æ81 5 ?1 Ç E 80 6! 6$ 171 +Ç 8 8 9 0Æ ? 1Ç

%

57%

60%

60%

YE

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

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66

¤¸ µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É

´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª

´¥q 5.12b – ¯³

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / + 8 6!1Ç

370% 340% 312% 279%

277%

293%

4.7% 3.4%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

15/2Q

10FY

11FY

­°ÂŠ

—¼´mŠÂ›Âƒ´¼ÂŒĂ?´¼²­Â›¡Ă‹Â—Â?™.—mÂŻÂƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒ

8.1%

06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + /

0 00 / Æ6 /# 1 06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / C +& 6 + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ç 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ç C +& 6 ! + 6$ 1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / $ m +6$ m

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + 6$ 1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / $ m +6$ m 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m m 4.7%F1 +0 6 +m Å1 8.1% F1 +0 6/ Æ6 8$ +mG + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ç 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ç mG8! n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ 5 o!8 (293%) DÆ 9 6+ # $

06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / ? /88! 0$ 1$ Å1/ Æm! 5

4.7% 4.2%

12FY

4.0%

13FY

14FY

15/2Q

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67

à Š¡Âœ­ĂŽ¾Œ°ÂŠŒ³Žªn¾ŠžŒ³à š¨Â—¨ÂŠà ¨ĂˆÂ„Âœo°¼Ă„œž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ Ă‚Â˜n¼Š´ ‡Š

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.13a – ¼²Â–ÂłÂœĂ‚Â‰ÂśÂ›Â™ÂşÂ›ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â‰¼²­Šm´Â‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ª* 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

73.9

2006

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

154.1

2009

191.7

206.4

205.8

2010

2011

2012

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.13b – ¼²Â–ÂłÂœĂ‚Â‰ÂśÂ›Â™ÂşÂ›ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â‰¼²­Šm´Â‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ª ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +nFC# CĂ‹ + $ m +1' ?# #** 13.8

12.6 10.8

9.1 6.9

2006

2007

9.9

7.9

2008

2009

2010

2011

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

2012

Š¤¸à Ž¨º°à ¢º ° 16' + + 7 $ + /

8

190.2

180.2

169.6

2

2013

2014

Aug-15

2

16' + + 7 $ + / 6 1/+!98& $ + / / Æ n + E 8-1 +m5 5 6 0 +n1' 0 FC# + E8C1&/!1/ /Æ ' Å1 C$ 1 9 Æ m +C C8m +?

5m +CË + 1 7+ FC# Å1 + Æ 0 71 Æ F1m + ' 1 1 1E8 8 ! + 5m 5 Æ81 1! + 00 5 $ ? Net forward position / Æ- /.0 o + ; m9!1F16!.. currency forward contracts C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F16m 5 1 55 +& 67+!,) C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +nFC# CË + $ m + 1' ?# # ( m 1 80F7#FC# CË + # m 16 0 1)

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

9.1

9.5

9.4

2013

2014

Aug-15

+ ! 16' + + 7 $ + / 9 0Æ ? 1Ç m 4 /$ ! Ç $ 2005 $5 5 5Gm1# 8 ! Ç $ 2012 /! Ç 1 Ç 0 Æ ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +nFC# CË + $ 6 1 # 1' ?# # mG9 $ 6 0 +nFC# CË + #n m 10 1DÆ n $ 6 m 1 0 ' Å1 0 m

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Ä Á º° .¥. Á · µ °n° nµ ªnµ 1% Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ­ »¨Á ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.17b –

2007 = 100

% / Æ 5 Æ81 5 m MYR Ͳ 8.3064 114.0

Baht appreciates 112.0

AUD Ͳ 25.868

110.0

IDR Ͳ 2.6319

108.0

KRW Ͳ 0.0305

MͲoͲM

Ͳ1.2%

106.0

Ͳ0.2%

Baht depreciates Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

JPY Ͳ 30.6478

102.0

INR Ͳ 0.5817

100.0 Sep-15

TWD Ͳ 1.1058

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

EUR Ͳ 41.2624 SGD Ͳ 25.7733

104.0

YͲoͲY

MXN Ͳ 2.1459

GBP Ͳ 55.5579 VND Ͳ 0.0016 PHP Ͳ 0.7915 CNY Ͳ 5.7923 USD Ͳ 36.5344 Baht

Š¡Âœ°ºĂ‰ÂœĂ‡ ƒ´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Â„¯‰¯³—¼´Ăƒ§ÂƒĂ‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›

m /Æ 5# , 2 !1/ Æ 30/9/2015

! + 5m 5 Æ81 21.0 12.3

10.2 9.1 1.3 0.3 -0.4 -2.5

C +& 6 !C1 $ 1 / (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) 6+# m $ >5 Æ8n$ 1' Ç 71!m? ! + 5m 5 Æ81+ 7 $ $ 1 / 5 $ 1 23 6m 5/ Æ6' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ ? /8 E 81' Ç 71!m / ÆFC# ? 1Ç 8 $m! 06' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ m + 9 0Æ ? 1Ç ? !C1 70 8n m + ?G $ ? 1Ç ? 1 / $ 10 ? C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 1 /Æ; 6m 5 1 $ I/ Æ6' !. 0 Æ / 8 m! 1 /E 8 ! m ! + 5m 5 Æ81 >5 Æ8/ Æ-1 +9 2 C8& 61 ? 8

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-3.2

F1 1m.8. 1 / $ 1 $ m $ 1% 0 Æ / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Æ1I 5 F1C$ 1 /Æ; $ 10 1 / $ 1 $ 5 0.2% 0 Æ / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Æ1IF1 m+# 1/ m +

-3.4 -4.7 -6.3 -7.2 -8.2 -11.0 depreciates

Baht appreciates Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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© ChartingTHAILAND™ All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, without the prior permission of the publisher, ChartingTHAILAND™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILAND™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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