Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief November 2015 (Thai) by Ake Saroj

Charting Thailand’s Economy

MONTHLY

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พฤศจิกายน 2558 ISSN: 2286-6132

Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, November 2015 (Thai) Publication Date: November 3rd, 2015 Number of pages: 70

DISCLAIMER

All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmit by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without t permission of the publisher, ChartingTHAILAND™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILAN be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sour accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ ca liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently p incorrect.

ASK THE EDITOR ChartingTHAILAND™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any quest comments about this report, you can contact the chief editor directly at editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com.

tted in any form the prior

t be guaranteed. ND™ delivers will rces, whose n accept no rove to be

ions and

+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m 6' 7+! ; # + 7 ++ ! 6 1!m5 / 1 7+ ; #/Æ6 1F 0 +(,m /8 $0 5 1# 8 F7#6 0 +n #+! m + + : 1 E1#0 0 Å1 ? +(,m /8 Å1 + ' 15 +! Ç

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Á¦µÁ È ¦·¬ ´ ¸ÅÉ ¤n Ê¹ ¦ ´ ® nª¥ µ Ä ´ ´ Ê ¹ ¤¸°· ¦³Á È¤ ¸ÄÉ Å¤n¤ ¸ ªµ¤ ÎµÁ È Á¨¥ ¸ÁÉ ¦µ ³ o° Â

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Â n ° ªnµÄ Â n ¦» · Á¦µ°¥ Â nÁ¦µ´ µªnµ ³ ´ Á¨º° Á ¡µ³Ã ¬ µ ¸¤É Á¸ ºÊ°

µ µ Á¦µ

µ¦ ÎµÁ °

µ¦Á ° °o ¤¼¨Â¨³ µ¦ª·Á ¦µ³®r£µª³Á«¦¬ · °¥nµ ¸¤É ´ Á È ³ ÎµÄ®o µn º°Ê µ¥ ®¦º°¨ » Ä Ç

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¥¼Ån o ªo ¥¦µ¥Å o µ Ã ¬ µ ®µÁ È ¦³Ã¥ r ®¦º° ¸¤É ¦¸ ¼ Â ª¥ µ¤Á nµ ´ Ê

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• Âª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä § § Ä ¤Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬¯ ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯ Â ·Ê¤©Â | Â ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ Â¯ Ã§² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ § § ¯· Å Â ¹¯ .¤. Ã§²¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·Ë¤ Ä¤ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§ Â ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ Ä§ Å Ã m¥n´¤§ § Â m Â ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ . . ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³ Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¶ § ´ d §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ ¸ ³© ¸Ë Â§É n¯ Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m© Â ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 9 Â ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 9 Â ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015 Â ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ Â§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ ³©Å Â ¹¯ . .

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · Ã ¨ ¨ Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É °

´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.5%

7.2%

7.3%

6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.2%

2.8% 1.7% 0.8%

0.9%

-0.7% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

! + m + E 9 F1

Last 5 Quarters

! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 + / /8 8# 175! 10 5 ! + m + E + 8 F16 Æ +0 65$ 6 ( / 8 m! + 0 6 8 m!1? m$ 171# ) Å1m +6 /# 1n m + ?8 8 ! ? + +(,m F1 5$ C$ 5 F1 Å1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + DÆ #1' ;5? 1 :# m 5# ! 5? ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 2 m++0m + 9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 3.0%

! + m + E 9 ? /8F1 2.8%

2.1% 0.9% 1.0%

! + m + E / Æ /# + >5 Æ8 ! Ç $ 2003 n 2014 /$ m! 3.4% F1C$ 10 /Æ; $ 10 0 9 8 2009 8 / Æ ! + m + E 5 6' 7+! 2013 +(,m /8 E 2.8% 9+ #+! ;5m+ / m6n 1m +2& 0 $1 8/ m + 0 F1C$ +0 6/ Æ6Æ $ 1 Æ 0 1n +0 6 +m? 2014 $ + 0Æ : Ç 1 ! F1 +0 6/ Æ 6 Å1 1# 0 /' F7#/ ! Ç 2014 E # 0.9% 5 8! : Ç 1 ! $ 1 Æ F1 2015 8$ +mG F1 +0 6/ Æ6 +(,m /8m5! E #C# 5 75 9 8 2.8%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

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£µ ¦· µ¦¤¸nª nª¥ µ¦Á · Ã ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ Å ¦¤µ ¸É ° Â¨³°» µ® ¦¦¤ µ¦ ¨· ¥´ nª µ¦Á · Ã ´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q15

´¥q 1.06b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Hotel&Res

18.7

GDP

Construction

17.3

Transport

Financial

8.6

Hotel&Res

Transport

8.6

Financial

Other social

6.3

Trading

Health&Social

5.5

Construction

Private HH

5.5

RealEstate

Trading

3.7

Other social

GDP

2.8

Utilities

2.7

Health&Social

RealEstate

2.5

Education

2.2

PublicAdmin

1.3

Private HH

Manufacture

-0.7

Fishing

-1.6

Mining

Mining Agriculture

-3.9 -6.3

Manufacture Agriculture Stat diff

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

° ¤µ ¸É » nª £µ Á ¬ ¦ ! + m + E 9 + 8o m +;5 5$ 6

– § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q15

$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 mo $ I 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2

+0 6

F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 0 5 $ 9 0Æ ? ;5;5 F1o $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 + 0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5? m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 71 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 8 6' 1!m 1 2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

! !8m+ 1 # +(,m /8<!Æ m +;5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 7+ 5 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Æ6 DÆ 0 ! 5?5$ 6 F1 +0 6 2 2015 7G1 # $ o E+ +0 5 +# 1 7 + 0 m + E 6 6 6$ 1o m( +0 ! + m + E 5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Æ6 DÆ o + m +0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E ? 9 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 0 m/ Æ6 6$ 1o m( + 5 6 7m++0m +;5 8! n$ m + E

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¦µ¥ n µ¥ µ µ¦ n° Á ¸¥É ª¤¸nª nª¥ µ¦Á · Ã Ä Å ¦¤µ ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 2Q15

´¥q 1.08b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

% m + 5 Æ81 5

X (services)

25.1

4.6

GDP X (services)

GDP

2.8

Discrpncy

I (capital)

2.5

1.9

1.5

I (capital)

M (services)

-0.2

M (goods)

-0.3

M (services)

X (goods)

-4.0

I (Inventory) X (goods)

Note: (*) C = m + + Eo mC1, I = m +5 / 1 $ Å1 I (capital) = m +6 60/ 1 5 I (inventory) = m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 6 1 # 75 G = m + + Eo o +!,, X = m +6$ m6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0+ 8 # mm +/$ / Æ8 ), M = m +1' ?# 6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0 Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

¸É ° ¤µ ¸É »

– § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q15

! + m + E 9 # 1+ 8 $ 8 +0 65$ 6

0.8

F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? + 8 $ 8 $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 +0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5 ? m + 5 Æ81 5 ? + 8 $ 8 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 871 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 8 $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

0.6

! !8m+ 1 # +(,m /8<!Æ + 8 $ 8

$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 m+ 8 $ 8 $ I 2.8 3.3 3.0 0.8

0.1 0.0 -0.2

C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 7+ 5 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Æ6 DÆ 0 ! 5? 5$ 6 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 7G1 # $ + 8 $ 8m +/$ / Æ8 0 ! + m + E 6 / Æ6 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Æ6 DÆ 7G1 # $ m +/$ / Æ8 0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E 0 m/ Æ6

-2.5

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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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´ ¸ ¨ ¨· £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ ÎµÉ ªnµ¦³ ´ ° ¸ n°

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100)

194.2 182.9 174.6

170.0

161.1

177.6 181.6 175.7

167.7

152.1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

° n°Å

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯

!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0

200.0

180.0

2014

160.0

140.0

C! 1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0+ 0m +;5 F1 o 6 7m++0/ Æ6' !. n$ 1' Ç 71!m 00 5 $ 9 0Æ E 8FC# 2000 Å1 , 1E 8F7#0 $ /$ m! 100 !C1 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1

2015

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 F1+ 8 5 10 /Æ; $ 10 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0 0 m + E / / m 8m #1 8 $ 9 8 2009 / Æ m mV D ! 9+0&F1+ +(,m E5m 2011 / Æ m mV /mo!8 F1 + / 5 5$ 6 F1 2013 m 7 m +2& 0 0$6 / m + 0 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++08! 'Æ m $ + ! ? m$ 1 $ 6 /# 1n o C 5 ! ? +(,m

120.0

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

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°» µ® ¦¦¤nª Ä® n¤¸ ¨ ¨· ¨ ¨ µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ´¥q 1.11a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£

´¥q 1.11b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , m.8. 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Petroleum

10.6

Tobacco

8.3

Vehicles

5.2

Tobacco Transport Equip Machineries

Machineries

1.9

Electronic

Transport Equip

0.5

Office automate

Metal products

0.4

Metal products

Paper

0.3

Vehicles

Precision instru

-1.1

Furniture

Chemical

-1.2

Precision instru

Furniture

-1.7

Wood products

Rubber&Plastic

-3.7

Textiles

Food & Bev

-4.6

Leather

Mineral

-5.5

Rubber&Plastic

Textiles

-7.3

Electrical

Wood products

-7.9

Basic Mat

Electrical

-8.1

Mineral

Office automate

-8.4

Food & Bev

Electronic

-10.7

Petroleum

Leather

-11.7

Paper

Basic Mat Apparel

-18.2 -21.4

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Chemical Apparel

¸ n°

– ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£

m 1m$ 1, m.8. 2015 15.5 11.8 11.5 10.5 9.9 9.5 7.4 6.7 6.5 6.2 1.8 0.8 -1.5

!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1 8 m!1 m$ 171# C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 F1 1m.8. 6 7m++06$ 1F7.$0 ;5;5 5 5 mC$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 8$ +mG 0 Æ / 8 m! 16. . 6 7m++06$ 10 m0 ;5;5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç / C$ 18 6 + Æ 0 ?16$ + Æ !m+ Å1 #1

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°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· Â ¦´ ¨ ° § ¼ µ¨¨ ¨ Ä ´¥q 1.12a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n Ï´§³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£

´¥q 1.12b –

% ? m' 5! m +;5 /! Ç 70

% ? m' 5! m +;5

70% 68% 66% 64% 62% Seasonally adjusted

60% 58%

Normal 56% 54% 52% 50% Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Aug-15

Sep-15

Rubber&Plastic Textiles Wood products Electronic Electrical Furniture Metal products Basic Mat Leather Office automate Food & Bev Precision instru Mineral Chemical Transport Equip Vehicles Paper Machineries Petroleum Apparel Tobacco

Ä Á º° .¥. ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n Ï´§³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± /! Ç 70 , m.8. 2015 89% 84% 81% 80% 76% 71% 68% 66% 66% 60% 59% 59% 51% 50%

! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 + 0? 6 7m++0 $ I ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 E 8+ 0 F1+ 8 5 7m 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 2 15$ 6 Å1+ 8 6 7m++0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 +! ;5? V m 5 5 5 F1 1m.8. E 88 5 95 6 0 ! + m +FC# ) 6 / Æ6 00 # 86 1 # 6 Æ / 5 5 /+ 1 6& 6$ 18 6 0 ! + m +FC# ) 'Æ / Æ6

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¨ ¨· °» µ® ¦¦¤ ° Å ¥ · ¨ Â¨³°¥¼nÁ º° ¦´Ê oµ¥Á¤ ´¥q 1.13 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 5$ 6 Vietnam Ͳ Oct India Ͳ Aug China Ͳ Sep Pakistan Ͳ Aug Indonesia Ͳ Aug Philippines Ͳ Aug Malaysia Ͳ Aug South Korea Ͳ Sep

Australia Ͳ Q2

1.2

Euro Area Ͳ Aug

0.9

US Ͳ Sep

0.4

Japan Ͳ Sep

-0.9

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

-1.2

Russia Ͳ Sep

-3.5

Thailand Ͳ Sep

-3.6

Singapore Ͳ Sep Taiwan Ͳ Sep Brazil Ͳ Aug -8.9 Source: The Economist

-4.8 -5.3

¤º°É ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç

8.8 6.4 5.7 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.0

!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1E5m ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1F1 m$ 171# ? !C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1 + / $ I ?# 0 55$ 6 + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 + 8 5' ! 0 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 F1 + / $ I m0 m 1# 8 ;5;5 6 7m++0? /8 Å171 Æ F1 + / / Æ7 ! F1 15$ 6

2.4

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oµ » ¤¸Áª¨µ 2 ´ªÃ¤ É Á¦µ °Â ³ Îµª¸ Ã¸ ° ¸Ê Á¡º°É ¼¡ Êº µ Á¦º°É ´ªÁ¨ Á«¦¬ · ¹ É ³ nª¥Ä®o » °nµ ¦µ¥ µ ° Á¦µÅ o³ ª ¥· É Ê¹ http://goo.gl/g1oOka

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

Ä Á º° .¥. µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ¢ºÊ ´ªÂ¨³°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.14a – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ Â¯

´¥q 1.1

(2010 = 100)

% m + 5 Æ81

125.0

NonͲre

120.0

2014 115.0

Se 110.0

2015

NonͲdu

105.0 100.0

Composite 95.0

SemiͲdu

90.0 85.0

Du 80.0

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

´ ¸É ¼ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸

4b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·¬Ê Ï´ ³

1 5 m 1m$ 1, m.8. 2015

sident

13.4

ervices

4.8

rables

2.2

Index

rables

0.4

-1.3

!C1 m + + Eo mC1 Å1 !C1 C /Ç / m + Eo + Eo ? o mC1 E 8 ' 1 2 m 5 & + m 75!m # m$ !C1 m +FC# $ 8 6 1 # 0$ /1 ( + m # 8 !C1 # 5 m Nielsen’s FMCG + 0 2m +FC# C Ç 95 + o/ $ I 5 + 0 2 m +FC# ::# o +! + 1) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ç m Æ /1 ( + m # 88 # 5 m6 Æ / + Æ 1 $ 7$0 5 + 0 2 m +1' ?# 6 Æ / + Æ 1 $ 7$0) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ç /1 ( + m # 8 8 ' 71$ 8+n81 1& !Æ +n !m+8 181 & 5 +n81 & C 9 2 C8&) !C1 m +FC# $ 8o + m + ( + m # 8 o ( 0 5 $ 9 0Æ m5 $0E+ +0 5 o! + 5 8 ? 8 + m +o 01 0?16$ ) 5 !C1 m +FC# $ 8? 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C ( + m # 8 ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C ) ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2010 Å1 , 1 0 m + ;8 9+$ Å1+ 8 1 5 $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Æ +! V m 5 5#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 F1 1m.8. m + + Eo o mC1: Ç 1 ! 5 8 $F1 + ! / Æ6 m $ C$ 8 m!1? /Æ 5#

rables -8.7

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µ¦¨ » Â ´ µ ¢ºÊ ´ª n°Á º°É

´¥q 1.15a – ³ · ´¥§ º Â¯

´¥q 1.15b

(2010 = 100)

% m + 5 Æ81

121.0

Domestic M (2010

120.0

2015

2014

119.0

118.0

Import (201

117.0

Constructio

116.0

115.0

C p

114.0

Domestic Sa

113.0

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand

b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ !C1 m +5 / 1o mC1

5 m 1m$ 1, m.8. 2015

Machinery sales* prices, Baht)

11.7

Composite Index

1.1

of Capital Goods 0 prices, Baht)

0.1

Å1 !C1 C /Ç / m +5 / 1o mC1 !C1 + m # 8 5 & + m # m$ 9 1Ç / Æ #+! 1 . m$ 6+# /! Æ + / !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 !6 m$ 6+# F1 + / m + 1' ?# 6 1 # / 1 2 + / Æ 2553 + 0 2m + ' 71$ 8 + Æ !m+ 5 m+2&F1 + / 2 + / Æ 2553 5 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8+n81 & 9 Æ m +5 / 1F1 + / $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Æ +! V m 5 5 >5 Æ8 5 Æ 1/ Æ 3 1 8m #19 1Ç / Æ+! 1 . m$ 6+# DÆ >5 Æ8 5 Æ 1/ Æ 9 1 ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2553 Å1 , 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

on Material Sales Index

-2.7

onstruction Area permitted (sqm)

-3.4

6' 7+! F1 1m Ç +5 / 1 6 6!.. 2: Ç 1 ! $ 1 Æ E 8 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 + Æ !m+F1 + / 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 m/ Æ6 $+n81 & 9 Æ m +9 2 C8&DÆ $ 1?# m Æ8 1 Æ m! - +m ?1 5Gm 8! 7 !

c Commercial Car -6.0 ales Index

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µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °

´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª 5# 1 55 +&67+!,)

´¥§ º 6,000

15,936 14,747

5,000

12,899 4,000

3,000

8,562 6,411

2,000

3,720

1,000

2,474 0

08FY

Source: BOT

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

° ¸

m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + /

Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯

2014

2015

m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / (Foreign Direct Investment : FDI) Å1- +m++0m +5 / 1/ Æ; #5 / 1/ Æ 0 n1 Æ , 1 m $ + / 0 $ - +m / Æ0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / + m # 8 15 / 1F1/ 1 + 17 #1 (Equity capital) DÆ 70 8n m +5 / 1 # 8m +n 7 #1/ Æ0 6 /- Ê +$ 0F1m + + 7 +m m + ! Ç $+# 85 10 ? 1Ç m + m #8 0+ 7 $ + (!/F1 + 5 m' +/ Æ1' m5! 0 5 / 1 ! /' E 8- /. C +& D# 8 6 0 5 $ m +5 / 1 E 8 + m /.+ 8 C +& ? 6 0 5 $ 6 60 + 8 1F1 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 m +5 / 1E 8 + m /. 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 1 0 ?

F M A M

S O N D © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . ¸É °¦´ · · Ã¸ °Å°¨ ¨ ° ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ 9!15# 1 /

1,023

648 525 396 236

10FY

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

13FY

14FY

°¥nµ ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ

¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯ 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1E 8 + m /.6 /- /Æ 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 ( E m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / / Æ6 /# 1F16n m + 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 (6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 m 2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 0 1 8 0 $ Å1 E + m +/ Æ0 ; #n 7 #1 Å1C $ + / 0$1# 8m $ 10% ? / 1 / 81

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 0 5 $ m +5 / 1E 8 + m /./ Æ? +! 6 /- E 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? 1 Ç E 8F1 8 1 +m0 0 5 $ 9 8 50 9!15# 1 / /$ 1!1Ç

288

2014/8M

2015/8M

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¸ É »n Á È ¦³Á « ¸¤É µ¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ Ä Å ¥¤µ ¸É » Â n¦ °¥nµ ¤µ

´¥q 5.16 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ . ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ 6! 6$ 1 m0 5 $ 5 / 1/! Ç 70 11%

Others

27%

4% 10%

USA ANIEs ASEAN Europe

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

21%

2% 6% 10%

17 58%

Japan

49%

54%

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

13FY

14F

¦³¥³®¨´ ´ nª ¨ o°¥¨

¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

6! 6$ 1m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / 8m + 8 + / 19%

13%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

6! 6$ 1? 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1 m $ + / / Æn m 61 ? +! 6 /- 9 ( m 2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m + 5 / 1 $ 0+ 8 + / / Æ0 8$ +mG ! 5?/ Æ 6 1!1Ç 0 m +1! DËÇ F1E + m +/ Æ0 ; #n 7 #1 $ C m 171 Æ 6!.C

30%

. Æ $ 1 Å1 + / / Æ0 5 / 1E 8 + F1 /80 m/ Æ6 $ + 8 75! 6! 6$ 15 1# 85 8$ 0 m

20%

2015/8M

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° Ã ¤¸Á ¸¥¤¢ºÊ ´ª°¥nµ ¤µ Ä Á º° . . ³ ¸ É ´ ¸° ¥´ Ã ÎµÉ ®¦º°® ´ª ´¥q 1.16a – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q

´¥q 1.16b

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 8 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81

Condo unit registered

31.8

New housing unit

1.3

Constr. Area in municipal

-4.7

Value of land transaction

-6.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

-1.8

-8.1

°´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥r ª´ °ºÉ Ç

b – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q

5 m 1m$ 1, 6. . 2015

!C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !. 107.4

! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.F1C$ #1 n 1 ! !1 / 8 m! + 8 $ 8 8 m!1F1C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# ! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.F1C$ 15$ 6 / 8 m! 1m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 1E 0 1 80: Ç 1 ! 8$ 0 mF1 16. . ?2 / Æ !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98& ! Æ1I8! E 'Æ 7+ 7 !

4.6

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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ ÎµÁ µo ¸É¨ ¨ ¤µ ªnµ

´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.03b

9 1 +m, 9!15# 1 /

9 1 +m, 9!1 200

6,000

180 5,000 160 140

4,000 2014

3,000

2015 -1.9%

-7.6%

120 100

-5.0

2,000

60 1,000 40 20

0 -1,000

Export

–

Import

Trade balance

-20

Expo

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

µ¦n °°

b – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ¯§§´¥q¬¥³ ±

15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

ort

-10.5%

5m + # Å1?# 0 5m + # + 7 $ + / / Æ #+! mm+0 5m m+ m+ /+ m + 5! ! /' F1+ 6n /Æ 6 n - +m++0m + 5 Æ 18# 86 1 # m ? +(,m ? + C 2 !m+ /8 1 m + C 2 !m+ 7+ 5 Æ 18# 86 1 # m1 m + C 2 !m+ ?# 0 F1+ C 2 !m+ /8 F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Æ E 8 + 5 06 1 # / m+ 8m + 5m + # F1+ 1 Ç 0$ /$ m! F1+ / Æ 6 F1C +& ? 5m +CË + 1 1 Æ m0 - ' 1 2/ Æ $ m!1F1 + 8m + C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? 5m + # # m$m +1' 0 5 $ m +6$ m6 1 # 5 # 80 5 $ m +1' ?# 6 1 #

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 5 m + # ?1 Ç 6 7 75!m mm +1' ?# / Æ5 5 0 mm $ m +6$ m

–

Import = Trade balance

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µ¦n °° ¢ºÊ ´ªÄ Á º° .¥. Â n Ê ´ 9 Á º° Â¦ ¥´ Á · Ã ¦Á¨¸¥¤Â¨³Á ¤¸¦ª¤ ´Ê · oµÁ ¬ ¦Á È ´ª » ®¨´ ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´

´¥q 5.05b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 9 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Total export Optical instru Other export Jewellery Automotive Machinery Other manufacturing Photo instru Electrical Electronics Metal Forestry Agro products Toiletries Apparels Footware Agriculture PetroͲchemical Furniture Fishery Aircrafts Chemicals Petroleum ReͲexports Mining

-1.9 28.5 25.5 6.3 6.2 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.3 -4.0 -5.0 -6.2 -6.5 -7.8 -8.0 -14.3 -17.6 -23.0 -24.5 -25.0 -49.4

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Total export Automotive Other export Machinery Optical instru Jewellery Electrical Other manufacturing Electronics Photo instru Forestry Metal Footware ReͲexports Furniture Toiletries Fishery Apparels Aircrafts Mining Agro products PetroͲchemical Agriculture Chemicals Petroleum

· Ã · ¨ Ã ¥ § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ $ ? m +6$ m+ 0/ Æ0 m6 1 # $ I -1.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +6$ mF1C$ / Æ;$ 1 0 ? C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 1 /? m +6$ mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# C +& # 1? 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E ? m +6$ mE 8+ 0 / Æ0 mm +6$ m 0m5 $06 1 # $ I

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 m +6$ m: Ç 1 ! F1 1m.8. $/ ! Ç 9 1 +m 8! E 5 E 8 E + 5 80 5 0 + 0/! Ç 6 1 # m( + Å1 ! > 75!m

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µ¦n °° Ä ¦¼ Á · µ ® ´ªÄ Á º° » ¨µ ¥ Áªo

´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´

´¥q 5

6! 6$ 1 $ m +6$ m+ 0F1+ 1 /

% m + 5 ᪛ 7.3 (Trillion)

100% =

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

᪛ 6.9

Rest of the world

18.1

17.4

18.1

16.7

Middle East

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.2

Japan

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

9.6

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

10.3

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

12.0

East Asia exͲJapan

20.4

21.0

21.2

20.3

ASEAN

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

26.1

EU NAFTA

16.5

Rest of

East Asi

M 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

14FY

µ¢ oµ

5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯

5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 9 1 +m? 2015 NAFTA

8.3%

f the world

-0.8%

-3.0%

a ex Japan

-3.3%

ASEAN

-3.4%

Japan

-4.1%

Middle East

5 8/ m +6$ m C +& 6 0 5 $ m +6$ m (F1+ 1 /) $ 6! 6$ 1 0 + / 5 8/ C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +6$ m6 $ $5 5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 m +6$ mF1+ 1 /7 ! F1 m / m 5 8m #1 1 : #

-9.8%

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µ¦ ÎµÁ µo ¨ ¨ 7.6% Ä 9 Á º° Â¦ ° 2015 µÁ® ¡¨´ µ ¸¨É ¨ ¤µ ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´

´¥q 5.09b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 9 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

Total import

Total imp

-7.6

Consumer goods

6.3

Consumer goo

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-0.3

Oth

Others

-0.4

Intermediate Ͳ Non f

Capital goods

-2.2

Capital goo

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

-34.5

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Intermediate Ͳ F

® »®¨´ ¤µ µ µ¦ ÎµÁ µo

§ ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´

? m +1' ?# + 0/ Æ0 m6 1 # $ I

ort

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +1' ?# F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ?

-7.6

ods

0.5

ers

0.0

uel

-0.1

ods

-0.5

uel

C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1? 0 5 $ m +1' ?# F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 71# C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E E 8+ 0 / Æ0 ;50 mm + E F1m5 $06 1 # $ I

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 m +1' ?# 5 5 7.6% F1 9 1 +m? 2015 6 7 7 5!m0 mm +1' ?# 95! 1/ Æ5 5 0 m

-7.5

www.ChartingThailand.com

´ nª µ¦ ÎµÁ µo ° » ¨»n¤Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á º°É ¤µ µ µ¦¨ ´¥q 5.08 – ¬³ ¬m© ´¥ Ï´Â n´ 6! 6$ 1 $ m +1' ?# + 0F1+ 1 / 100% =

Ѯ 5.9

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 7.8

Ѯ 7.7

Others

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.2

Capital goods

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.3

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

44.0

40.0

37.5

35.7

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

17.4

18.9

20.8

Consumer goods

7.5

7.8

8.0

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

¨ ° ´ nª ¡¨´ µ

Ѯ 7.4

Ѯ 5.2

8.1

8.5

24.2

(Trillion)

25.5

6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# 0 5 $ m +1' ?# (F1+ 1 /) $ 06! 6$ 1 0 5!m(2 / +(,m ? m5 $06 1 #

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 38.3

6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# ? / mm5 $0 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 1 Æ 0 mm + 5 5 ? 6! 6$ 195! 1 40.8

20.8

15.4

8.7

9.7

14FY

15/9MO

www.ChartingThailand.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÅ o¦ ´ ¨ ¦³ µ Á® » µ¦ r¦³Á ·

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ 5# 1 +! Ç

26.5

CAGR

10.6%

24.8 22.4 19.2 15.9

14.5 11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

Source: Department of Tourism

°¥nµ ´ Á

' 1 11!m/$ / 8Æ

¤¯ ¥´¤Â ¹¯

C +& D# 80 6 ' 1 1 +! Ç F1m + ?# 0 F1 + / /8? 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C + 8 C +& ? 0 6 8 6 60+ 8 1? ! !1 5 m$ 171# + 0 5E 8m+0m +/$ / Æ8 E 8FC# ?# 0 5 m 6' 1!m 1 + 1 ?# 0

3.0

2015 2.5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

2.0

2014 1.5

1.0

' 1 11!m/$ / Æ8 #+! ;5m+ / m 7 m +2& + 8$ C! 1 E 8F1 1m.8. ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Æ8 5 5 20% m 1m$ 171# 8$ + mG 0 Æ + 0/! Ç 9 1 +m ! + m + 9 0Æ ? 1Ç ? 1!m/$ / Æ8 8! 6 n 27.2% mC$ 8 m!1F1 / Æ 5#

0.5

0.0

www.ChartingThailand.com

´ n° Á ¸¥É ª µ ¸ Â¨³¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥Á µo ¤µÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ ¸É» Ä ´¥q 5.19a

´¥q 5.19b

Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© Ã m ´£¬³ ´ ¶

10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â £´ ·Ê¬º Â£¹Ê¯Â ·¤

6! 6$ 1? /! Ç 70

9 1 +m 2015, 9!1

Rest of world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.6 5.3

27.9

51.2

14.7 5.0

26.5

53.8

13.8 4.8

25.3

56.0

11.9

China

4.4

4.5

Malaysia

23.8

59.9

24.8

58.8

Hong Kong

191.4

Korea

177.8

Taiwan

163.6

Vietnam

149.9

Japan

128.2

India

118.1

Singapore

112.9

USA 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

69.6

nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê

ª ·Ê£· Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯ Â ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ ³ m© Â ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·ÊÃ§n© +! Ç

' 1 11!m/$ / 8Æ 06!.C 2,917.3 885.8

6! 6$ 1? 1!m/$ / Æ8 06!.C m ' 1 1 +! Ç F1m + ?# 0 /$ / Æ8 /! Ç 70

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 6! 6$ 11!m/$ / Æ8 06!.C 0$ 5 Æ81 5 0 m 1!mF1+ 8 7m 75! 1!m/$ / Æ8 m C 8 !1 m ?# 0 Å16! 6$ 16 / Æ6 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç + Æ 8I F1+ 8 7m 75! 6' 7+! F1 11 Ç !m/$ / Æ8 m 1 5 0 5 D 8 ?# 0 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 m/ Æ6

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ ¨ °¸ Ä Á º° .¥. Â¨³¥´ °¥¼n ÎµÉ ª ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70

1.83

1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04 0.84 0.68

0.66

0.72

0 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

ªnµ 1%

! + m + $ 1

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯

1.40

1.20

1.00

2015

0.80

0.60

' 1 2 mm +m +6' + o m +/' 1? + C m+ DÆ 6' 1!m 16n 7$ C Å1; # ' 1 1m +6' + 5 + 0 5;5 ! + m + $ 1 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 1 7 + # 8 ' 1 1m' 5! + 1 ; # $ 1 70 8n 5/ Æ0 8 15 ?1 Ç 5 F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + 0 5!m(2 8$ 71 Æ 8$ F ! $ 1 Ç 0$ #/' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' $ 7# 1 60! + 17+ + m + ++ F1 + 7 $ 30 !1 m$ 1 !16!0o (2& 0$ #/ ' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' 5 0$ #7 1/' F1+ 7 $ 30 !1m$ 1 !1 6!0o (2& $9+# 0/ Æ /' 1F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + m' 5! + 1+ 0 70 8n 5/ m 1/ Æ0 8 15 ?1 Ç F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + Å1; # 8 $F1m' 5! + 1 ! !1 7+ Å1; #n m ! ' 1m 8 $F1 + o/m' 5! + 1 / Æ+ V m 5

2014

0.40

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0.20

! + m + $ 15 5 mF1 1m.8. 5 8! 8 $ 'Æ m $ 1%

0.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailand.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ ÎµÉ ¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È mm +6' + 5$ 6 , % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70 Thailand Ͳ Sep Singapore Ͳ Q3

0.8 2.0

Malaysia Ͳ Aug

3.2

South Korea Ͳ Sep

3.2

Hong Kong Ͳ Sep

3.3

Japan Ͳ Sep

3.4

Vietnam Ͳ 2014

3.4

Taiwan Ͳ Sep China Ͳ Q3

3.8 4.1

India Ͳ 2013

4.9

US Ͳ Sep

5.1

Russia Ͳ Sep

5.2

Indonesia Ͳ Q1

5.8

Pakistan Ͳ 2014

6.0

Australia Ͳ Sep

6.2

Philippines Ͳ Q3 Brazil Ͳ Sep Euro Area Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

6.5

³Á «°ºÉ

! + m + $ 1F1 5$ + / m + + 8 / 8 ! + m + $ 1F1 + / $ I + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ! + m + $ 1F1 + / /8 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I 5# 8! n $ 'Æ / Æ6 F1?2 / ÆF1 + / 9!41 5# 0 ! + m + $ 1 $ 1?# 6 E 8 >9 F18 E+ED1

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ¸ÄÉ Á º° . .

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·Ë¤ Ä¤ ´¤ .

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Oct-15

Nov-14

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·Ë¤Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%

Max

2.50%

Min Nov-14

0.00% Oct-15

Nov-14

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

! + m 8Ç

¥´ ¯ Â ·Ë¤ n´£ ¹ BIBOR* 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Oct-15

¥´ ¯ Â ·Ë¤Â ¶ »§n » n´ ³ Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00%

Max 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç 1E8 8? - /. ( ! + m 8Ç D Ç 19!1- ! + 1 !1) F1+ 8 5 12 1 5$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç F1 5 m #8 0 1 !1+ 7 $ -1 + F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& D 6 ! + m 8Ç 1< m 0/+!98&F1 -1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 'Æ 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç 1m #5 m # C!1Ç F1-1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 'Æ 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 # 8 + m !1 m 1 E1#0m + E / +(,m / Æ 0$ 1!m 5 m + ?$ m!15 $ 1? + / Æ1I /' F7# F1 10 Ç m +5 m 8Ç 1E8 8 5# n 6 +! Ç + 0m!1 0.5% m +5 ! + m 8Ç n Å1m +FC# 1E8 8m + 1F1m +m+ #1 +(,m 7+ m1!871 Æ 0 # $ 2 m++0m +1E8 8m + 10 $ m + E +(,m 8! # m +m +m+ #1 8$ + mG ! + m 8Ç 1E8 8/ Æ 1.5% F1 ! !1 ?# Fm5# 18&0 m 5# 5 ' m! m + ' 1 11E8 85 ! + m 8Ç 9 Æ m+ #1 +(,m F1 1

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨Á · n µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °

´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 2500

2000

2015 1500

1000

500

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

¸ ¸Ê

+ 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 +!, 58! 0 098 8 0 +$ m + m $ 8 + 0 2 9 Æ m +m+ #1 +(,m E 8F1C$ 9 1/ Æ;$ 10 0 + 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 9% 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? /Æ 5#

2014

m +FC# $ 8o +!,6 0 +nm+ #1m + E / +(,m # $ 7+ 8. m # 1mG 1!8m + 5! DÆ + # F1 + Æ 5 + 0 2m!1 m/

D © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

£µ »¦ · Â¨³°» µ® ¦¦¤¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n¨ ¨ Ä Á º° ´¥q 1.18a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³Ê º¥ ¶ *

´¥q 1.18b

100

200

Better

100 50.3

49.1

45.2

46.4

47.3

46.4

86.2

Worse

0 Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

Apr-15

May

Note: (*) Below is t Index = 1 Index > 1 Index < 1

.¥. – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£**

5.4

84.0

83.0

82.4

82.8

y-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

the interpretation of the index: 00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable 00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved 00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

0 C Æ 0!1Æ - +m C +& 6 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ o - +m ! /' E 8m +6' + ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 mm5 $0 ! 8$ 1,500 + 8 E 8 m +6' + + 0Æ 6$ 6 n 0F1C$ 6! 7&6 /# 8? 1/ Æ6' + 5 + + 0 + 0 5;5F16! 7&/Æ 3 ? 1n! !C1 0 $ /$ m! 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m /+ ! ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) !C1 0 $ 0 mm $ 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m ?1 Ç ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 0 mm $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$ 5 ) !C1 0 $ 1# 8m $ 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m 8$ ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 1# 8m $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) C +& 6 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ o 6 7m++0 ! /' E 8 6o 6 7m++0 7$ + / /8 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 'Æ m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0 6o 9 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ 0$ $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++0 0 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$0 m + 5 Æ81 5 7+ 8 $F16o 9/+ ! F1+ ! 0 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 6 m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0 6o 9 ?1 Ç 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 o - +m 5 6 7m++00 E5mF1 $5 5 F1 1 m.8.

www.ChartingThailand.com

¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n¦µo ¥¨ ¨ Ä Á º° .¥. ´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ 100

100

Overall

On job

Better

50 Worse

Worse

0 Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

(*) 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0-100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I ?1 Ç 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$ 5 Æ81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 F$ 1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 'Æ m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$ Source: Ministry of Commerce

!C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ ; # + Eo ! /' E 8m+ /+ 9 2 C8& m 6 n 0 ! 8$ m + C C1/! Æ + / 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I ?1 Ç 7+ 8 $F1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$ 5 Æ81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 $F1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 'Æ m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$

100

On future income

Better 50 Worse

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ; # + Eo 0 E5mF1 $+# 85 5 F1 1m.8. E 8 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ ; # + Eo 75!m 9 0Æ Å1 35.4 $8! 'Æ m $ ! / Æ 50 C$ 1 8 m! !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ # 1 m +7 1 5 + 8 #F1 1 0 Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

« . ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · Ã ° ´Ê ¸ ¸Ê ¨ °¸ ¦ ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

´¥q 1.03b –

6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $

6' 7+! 2016, % m + 6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

NESDB

4.00 The Economist poll

FPO

3.50

3.00

BOT

2.50

2.00 M-15

A-15

M-15

J-15

A-15

S-15

O-15

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

M-15

A-15

M-1

Foreca

¦´Ê

¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

5 Æ81 5 $

6.00

5.50

5.00

The Economist poll

FPO BOT

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

+ 0 2m +2&m + E ? 9 m + + 0 2m +2& ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 F1 ! !1 5 $ E 871$ 8 1 $ I C$ 1 -1 + 7$ + / /8 (BOT) 6o 9!41&) (NESDB) 6' 1!m 1 +(,m m + 5! (FPO) 5 E955&? 1 86 + E E10 6 & m + + 0 2m +2& 75$ 1 0Ç m + 5 Æ81 5 06n 1m +2& 5 ?# 0 55$ 6 ! 1!1Ç 0 m + +! 5 Æ81 8 $ 60 m + +! 5 Æ81 75$ 1 mÇ Gn $ 6 0 +n6 /# 10 00 $ 6o +(,m Ç 71# ? 6' 1!m $ I # C +& # 6 m + + 0 2m +2&? $5 6' 1!mF1 $5 C$ 5 # 9 Æ m + + 8 / 8 5 8# 175!

m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6 6 . +! 5 + 0 2m +2&m + E ? /! Ç 15 Ç m +! Ç 6' 7+! m + + 0 2m +2&m + E 9 ? 6' 1!m $ I 8 $+ 7 $ 2.7-3.4% 6' 7+! 2015 5 3.7-4.0% 6' 7+! 2016

2.00 J-15

J-15

A-15

S-15

O-15

ast as of, month ending

www.ChartingThailand.com

Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2015 Â¨³ 2016 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ ª ¨µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

´¥q 1.04

6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 31/10/2015

6' 7+! 2016,

India China Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Singapore US South Korea Hong Kong Australia Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia

India China 6.8 Vietnam 6.4 Philippines 6.3 Malaysia 5.7 Indonesia 5.4 Pakistan 4.8 Thailand Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia US Hong Kong Euro Area Japan 7.4

3.4 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.7 -2.7 -3.8

Source: The Economist

Russia Brazil

-0.3 -0.9

ªr nµ ³Á · Ã Å oÄ ¦³ ´ µ

b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 31/10/2015 7.7 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.1 4.7 4.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6

m + + 0 2m +2&m + E m.F1 + / $ I m + m +2&m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 F1 ? +(,m $ I/ Æ6' !.? E5mE 8E955&? 1 86 + E E10 6 & 6 0 +nFC# / 8 ! + m + E F1 $5 ? +(,m # 0 m + ;8 9+$/ mI6! 7&F11 86 + E E10 6 &

m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6 6' 7+! 2015 5 2016 +(,m /8n m m +2& $ E #F1+ ! 1m5 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I E 8 1 8n m $ E 6 / Æ6 F1 ++ +(,m ?1 F7.$ 6 m $ 1/ Æ + C0 &m + E 6 / Æ6 0 5 F1+ 8 75!

2.6 2.1 1.7 1.2

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ´ªÉ Å ¥´ Á ¨¸¥É Â ¨ Á º°É ¤µ µ ¨ ° ¦µ µ¡¨´ µ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢

´¥q 3.07b

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Veg

1.50%

Tobacco & a

Food away from

1.00%

Recreation & Edu

Core* 0.50%

Prepared food at

Medic

Non alcoholic bev 0.00%

Apparel and foo -0.50%

Head line -1.00%

Housing & furn

Sea

Eggs -1.50%

May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Transport & C

· ¨ µ ¸ n° ® oµ

b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´

5 m m$ 171# , . . 2015 & fruit

9.0

!C1 + ; # + Eo C! 1 + ; # + Eo Å1 !C1 /Æ m+ ! + /! Æ ? 6 1 # 5 + m +/ Æ; # + Eo FC# $ 8 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo Å1/ Æ1 80FC# F1m + ! ! + 1 :# ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8&

alcohol

2.1

m home

1.8

ucation

1.2

t home

1.1

al care

1.0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

verage

0.5

otware

0.4

Meat

0.3

F1 1 . . !C1 + ; # + Eo /! Æ 8! 5 Æ81 5 5 m m$ 171# 1 Æ 0 m;5? + 95! 1 $ 0 Æ !C1 + 6 1 # m5 $0 Æ1mG8! 9 $ 6$ 1F7.$ 9 0Æ ? 1Ç m m$ 1

nishing

0.1

Rice

0.1

soning

-0.2

& milk

-0.2

Commu

-6.5

Energy

-15.5 © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

Á n Á ¸¥ª ´ · Ã ¦r ¦³Á «Å ¥¤¸ ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¨ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Ä§ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

Latest

Russia Ͳ Sep

15.7

Brazil Ͳ Sep

9.5

Indonesia Ͳ Sep

6.8

India Ͳ Sep

4.4

Malaysia Ͳ Sep

2.6

Hong Kong Ͳ Sep

2.0

China Ͳ Sep

1.6

Pakistan Ͳ Sep

1.3

Australia Ͳ Q3

1.5

South Korea Ͳ Sep

0.6

Philippines Ͳ Sep

0.4

Japan Ͳ Sep

0.0

0.7

US Ͳ Sep

0.0

0.3

Vietnam Ͳ Oct

0.0

Euro Area Ͳ Oct

0.0

0.1

Taiwan Ͳ Sep

0.3

0.1

0.8

Singapore Ͳ Sep

-0.6

0.2

Thailand Ͳ Oct

-0.8

0.8

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

¨ µ ¸ n° ® oµ

2015* 15.2 8.9 6.4 5.1 2.5 3.1

1 :# F1E5m m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo F1 + / $ I m + m +2& ! + 1 :# ? /! Ç E 8 E E10 6 &E955&

6 3.9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 C$ 1 8 m! 6 E +& + / /80 !C1 + ; # + Eo 5 5 m m$ 171#

2.4

2.5

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ¼ o ¨· ¥´ ÎµÉ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶

´¥q 3.09

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

% m + 5 Æ81

3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0%

May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Other manu go Pulp & pa Ene C Tex Leather & footw W Mechin Fore Fore NonͲmetallic min F M Electrical eq Livesto Rubber & pla Chem Basic me Fish Petroleum prod

9b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´

5 m m$ 171# , . . 2015

oods aper ergy Crop xtile ware Wood nery estry estry neral Food Metal quip ocks astic mical etals hing ucts

3.9 3.1 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4

!C1 + ; #;5 ! + 1 :# F1+ ! ; #;5 ! E 8 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 + ; #;5 ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8& C +& 6 n m + 5 Æ81 5 F1 !C1 + 0 5 8m 0+ 8 6 7m++0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 + ! ; #;5 8! 'Æ m $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1F1 1 . . E 8+ ! + ; #;5 F1 15 'Æ 5 3.1% 5 0 Æ + 86 1 # mG9 $ 6$ 1F7.$0 + ! + / Æ5 5 # 8 C$ 1m!1

-1.3 -2.1 -2.9 -2.9 -4.2 -4.9 -11.0 -26.5 © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯¤ ¬³ ¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» Ã£n ·ËÂ¬·¤

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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· Á ºÉ°¥´ ¥µ¥ ´ªÂ¤oªnµ ³ ÎµÉ ªnµ nª n° ® oµ ¸Ê ´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9!15# 1 / 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ Ån¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 100% 97.2% 96.4%

95.7%

95.7% 94.9%

94.8%

94.5%

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

95%

90% Sep-14

Oct-14

Source: Bank of Thailand

Nov-14

Dec-14

6 1 C Æ ? -1 +9 2 C8&

May-15

M-o-M

Y-o-Y

+0.3%

+4.8%

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

-1 +9 2 C8&/' 71# / Æ+! 1< m 5 5$ 8m # !C1 m + 5$ 8m # $ 1< m/! Ç 70 Å16 Æ / Æ6 /# 1n m + 6!09!1-&? o +(,m / Æ /# + m! o m + 1 n# !C1 0 $ 6 6 /# 1n m +/ Æ0 E m 6F1 m +5 / 1 ( 5$ 8m #) #0 m n# !C1 0 $ 'Æ mG 6 /# 1n 6n 1m +2& + m!1?# 0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

96.5%

97.1%

97.3%

Jul-15

Aug-15

6 1 C Æ 8! ?8 8 ! 0# $ 'Æ m $ C$ m$ 171# 1 Ç F1?2 / Æ6o 9 5$ F1+ -1 + + 0Æ ! 5Gm1# 8 E 8 ! + 6$ 1 1F7#6 1 C Æ $ 1< m? -1 + 9 2 C8& 9 0Æ m 97.1% Å1 97.3%

95.4%

May-15

Jun-15

www.ChartingThailand.com

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ´Ê ®¤ ´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 9!15# 1 /

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

270

256

267

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

2.26%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

07YE

08YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

09YE

10YE

2.75%

11YE

´ nª n°¥° Á · ¼ o

71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #

299

278

4YE

312

361

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

Gross NPLs 70 8n 8 # ? 1F7#6 1 C Æ # 8 2o 9 # m$ 1F7#6 1 C Æ ! C!1Ç 'Æ m $ 0 +, 1 6 6!8 6 6!8 6 . 5 6 . 0 m2A&m + ! C!1Ç ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 C +& 6 71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #? /! Ç + 6n !1m + 1 /! Ç F1+ ! 1 5 6! 6$ 1? 8 5$ 8m #/ ! Ç 70

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 # 9 0Æ ? 1Ç /! Ç F1 # 10 5 $ 5 F1+ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 0

2.38%

2.79%

16%

2.29%

4YE

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

´ nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä Á º° . ¦³ ´ ¼ ´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 6! 6$ 1 $ 6 1/+!98& 6 Æ8 2 6 1Ç

15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

15.7%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3% 12.4%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2013

. . Â¨³¥´ º°ªnµ°¥¼nÄ

¬¶Ë Â ¹¯ 17.5%

17.0%

! + 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 2015 2014

16.5%

1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& / 81F1 + / 70 8n 6$ 1? ; #n 7 #1 6 1/+!98& 6 Æ8 70 8n 6 1/+!98&n$ 1# 71!m 0 0 6 Æ8 /! Ç 6 1Ç DÆ Å1 8 + 0? + 8m +F1 m + 1/ Æ #n$ 1# 71!m 0 0 0 0 6 Æ8 ( 0 + m - /.) ! + 6$ 1 8 Æ 6 8 Æ 6 n 00!1Æ F1+ -1 +

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

16.0%

6! 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 9 0Æ ? 1Ç Å1 17.2% F1 16. . DÆ n $ 8 $F1+ ! 6 15.5%

15.0%

14.5%

www.ChartingThailand.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· · ¨ ´¥q 3.05 – ¥²£´ ´¥ q¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·Ë¤ ·ÊÃ n ¥¶ 2 !1/ Æ 31/10/2015

൞

3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil

Expected 2015 inf

14.4

Russia

8.9

12.4

Indonesia

8.3

India

7.1

Pakistan

6.5

6.4 5.1 3.9

Vietnam

4.7

2.5

Malaysia

3.8

2.5

China

3.0

Singapore*

2.5

Australia

2.3

1.7

Philippines

1.8

2.4

South Korea

1.6

0.8

Thailand

1.5

0.8

Taiwan

0.9

0.1

Hong Kong

0.4

0.3

Japan

0.1

0.7

Euro Area

-0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

1.6 0.2

3.1

0.1

flation*

Real interest rates 5.5

15.2

-2.8 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.2

! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + F1 + / $ I C +& 6 - 71 Æ F1m + ' 1 2 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + E 8 + 0 2m +2& ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + F1 ! !1 = ! + m 8Ç - ! + 1 :# m +2&

1.3

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

1.4

0 75 8 + / / Æ0 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + 5 6$ 1 + / /8 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + + 0 2 8 $/Æ m 1%

2.3 0.6 -0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 -2.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.2

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Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸ SET ¦´ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê 3.4% ³ ¸ É µ¦Å® ®¥» ¨ ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · SET

´¥q 3.06c – ´

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m 1m$ 171#

2 !1/ Æ 28/10/2015 3.4%

China (SSEB, $ terms) France (CAC 40)

0.6%

Germany (DAX) Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) Japan (Nikkei 225)

-2.0%

May-15

US (NAScomp)

-2.4%

Jun-15

-4.3%

-4.0%

Jul-15

Aug-15

S Korea (KOSPI) Sep-15

Oct-15

Pakistan (KSE) China (SSEA)

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ SET 5 MAI, ! Ç $ #1 n 6 1Ç 1, 9!15# 1 /

US (S&P 500) US (DJIA) Australia (All Ord.)

0.0

India (BSE)

-20.0

UK (FTSE 100)

-40.0

HK (Hang Seng) Malaysia (KLSE)

-60.0

Thailand (SET)

-80.0

Taiwan (TWI)

-100.0

Singapore (STI)

-120.0 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15

Source: SET, The Economist

J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

Indonesia (JSX)

®¨°° ° Á · » nµ µ ·

´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2014 22.0% 14.5% 10.5% 9.8% 8.3% 7.6%

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 75!m/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.I C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 + 8 1? !C1 75!m/+!98& SET ? + / /8 C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ ! !C1 75!m/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.I? E5m 1! ! Ç $61 Ç m$ 1 F16m 5 1/# n 1Æ

6.6% 6.0% 4.3% 1.5% -0.2% -0.3%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 F1 1 . . !C1 SET +! 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 3.4% ?2 / Æm + 75 m? 1/ 1 $ C 78 5 5 C$ 1 8 m!1 m! 5 7 #1F1 +(,m m F70$ !C1 SET 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ?

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ 2

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ Â£¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ · · · 5 1F1 + 0 2 5 16

1.3%

1.0%

-0.2%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.0%-1.0%

-0.8%

-1.6% -1.9% -2.5%

-3.8% -4.2%

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

2014

5 + 0 2 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1 F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8+!, 5 5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Æ81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 1 70 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5 C +& 6 5 1F1 + 0 2 5 5 16 0 Æ / 8 Å1+# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + /

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-1.9% -2.1%

-2.2%-2.3%

-3.4% -3.8%

12FY

13FY

/! Ç 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ? 5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 m +? 5 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 0 $ 0 m? 1Ç 8$ 0 m F1 2009 0 m +? 5 6 / Æ6 0 Æ / 8 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 6$ 1 2012 0 m + ? 5 + 0 26 0 m 0 Æ / 8 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 5 F1+ 10 0 9 8 2009 /$ 1!1Ç / Æ? 50 mm $ m +? 5 + 0 2 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 9 0Æ ? 1Ç F1 2014

www.ChartingThailand.com

»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨¤µ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° Á º° Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2015 ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ 9!15# 1 / 2,075

¥´¤¥³ 1,241

º§ ¥²£´

-36

1,390

1,751 1,455

1,498

-174

-100

2,076

-267

-295

-2,424

-2,371

1,902

1,484

110 -75

-27

-364

-1,277

2,158

-414

-1,280 -1,629

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-1,930 -2,489

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

° ° ®¤º É ¨oµ Ä 9

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 50

5 + 0 2

-50

5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m + 8 $ 8+!, 5 C +& ? 0 6 5 + 0 2 6 60+ 8 1? 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#

-100

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 5 + 0 2? 50 mm $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 m 6 70 Æ15# 1 F1 9 1 +m? 2015

2015 -150

-200

2014 -250

-300

-350 J

F M A M J

www.ChartingThailand.com

»¨ ¦³¤µ Â¨³ »¨Á · µ »¨¡°Ç ´ Ä nª 9 Á

´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ Ã§² º§Â ¶ ¬ 9!15# 1 / º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 88

-27

-36 -45 -75

-95

-100 -96 -144 -174

-266

-364 -401

-414

-4

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Á º° Â¦

5 + 0 2 5 5 16 5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8 +!, 5 5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Æ81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 170 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5 -21 -20

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 /! Ç 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ? 5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 0 5 $ m +? 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m 8m #1 9 8 2010 6' 7+! F1 Æ1 5 16 m! 5 + 0 20!m 0$ $ m!10 m1!m F1 2012 0 m +? 5F1+ ! 16 6 Å1 + ! m +2& 6' 7+! F1 8 1 +m? 2015 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ? 59 Im!1

-242 -267 -295 -305

466

13FY

14FY

www.ChartingThailand.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ° Å

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È % $ 9 , 70 86' 7+! 2015 South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Philippines

-1.9

Indonesia

-2.0

Thailand

-2.0

Euro Area

-2.1

Australia

-2.4

-2.6

China

-2.7

Russia

-2.8

India

-3.8

Malaysia

-4.0

Vietnam

-4.2

Pakistan

-5.1

Brazil Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-6.0 -6.8

¥¥´ º°ªnµÅ¤n¼

0.3 0.0 -0.7 -1.0

5 + 0 2+!, 5 $ IF1E5m + 8 / 8 5 + 0 2o +!,? + / / Æ6' !. ? E5m ! F1+ +# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + / mm + m +2&? ; # ?# +$ 0 E E1 0 6 &E955&

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 +!, 56$ 1F7.$F1E5mn m m +2& $ ? 5 + 0 2F1 2015 8m #1 9 8 m 75 F # 5 $ m ?1 ? m +? 5) 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 0 0 m/ Æ6 F1. Æ $ 1 5 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I m + ? 5 + 0 2? /8/ Æ 2% ? 9 8! n $ 0$ 6

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® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Ä ¸ 2015 ´¥q 4.5a – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²

´¥q 4.5b –

5# 15# 1 /

6! 6$ 1 $ 9

6.0

5.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

4.0

3.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

2.0

Direct Government debt

1.0

0.0

2011 8%

2012 8%

2013 7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2014 7%

Aug-15 6%

2011

External debt as percent of total

2012

·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

25% 20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

71 6Ç - +2 71 6Ç - +2 + m # 8 71 /Ç Æ+ !, 5m #E 8 + 71 /Ç Æ +!, 5m # 9 Æ C C8 0 6 87 8F7# m$m / 1 9 Æ m + : Ç 1: ) 71 Ç 1m #5$ 71# 9 Æ +! E + 6+# 71 Ç 71 Ç 6 - +2 m+!, 6 7m 5 71 Ç Æ1I C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ç - +2 0 + o/71 Ç 0 ' 1 1 1 C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ç - +2 0 + o/71 Ç Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 71 6Ç - +2 9 0Æ 6 ? 1Ç 5Gm1# 8F1 1/ Ç ! Ç F1+ ! 1 (5.7 5# 15# 1 /) 5 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 (43%) 6 7 75!m m71 +Ç !, 5m #E 8 + E 871 6Ç - +2 6$ 1 F7.$ Å171 FÇ 1 + / (6m 5 1 /)

5% 0%

2013

2014

Aug-15

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® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ¸É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å Ä§ 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 , 2014 ( + 0 2m +2&) 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 4 Lebanon 5 Italy 6 Jamaica 7 Portugal 8 Cyprus 9 Ireland 10 Grenada 11 Singapore 12 Belgium 13 Eritrea 14 Barbados 15 Spain 16 France 17 Iceland 18 Egypt 19 Puerto rico 20 Canada 21 Bhutan 22 Jordan 23 Antigua and barbuda 24 UK 25 Cabo verde Source: CIA fact book

228 181 175 142 134 132 131 119 119 110 107 102 101 101 98 96 94 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 86

39 United 40 C 43 48 Ur 50 Pa 56 63 Ma 67 71 Th 72 Philip 7 80 Vie 93 M 96 Sw 101 Arg 103 South 105 Hong 108 T 126 129 N 133 Indo 137 147 149 N 164 Saudi

¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·

states Croatia 3 Israel ruguay akistan 6 Brazil alaysia 7 India hailand ppines 8 Laos etnam Mexico weden entina Korea g kong Turkey Nepal orway onesia 7 China Russia Nigeria arabia

71 70 67 65 64 59 54 51 49 48 46 46 41 40 38 37 37 37 30 30 24 22 13 12 2

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

71 6Ç - +2 F1E5m 71 6Ç - +2 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 F1 + / $ I + 0 2 m +2&E 8 Central Intelligence Agency ? 67+!,)

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 + / 9!41 5# 0 6! 6$ 171 6Ç - +2 $ 9 6 71 Ç 6 - +2 ? /8 0 ! 5? m CIA 8 $/Æ 49% ? 9 F1 2014 DÆ 0$n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ6 0 Æ / 8 m! 0 +, 11 1 C . Æ $ 10 6! 6$ 171 6Ç - +2 $ 9 6 / Æ6 / Æ 228% E 8 + / 6$ 1F7.$/Æ+ ! 71 6Ç - +2 6 0!m 8 $F18 E+

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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

Stability

·¯¤»m ·Ê 2.8% ·Ê¬º ´¥Â ¶ Ä

¥² ´ Â º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

15 Ã§² 3.7-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016

m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Ã m

´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0 ' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

www.ChartingThailand.com

»¨ µ¦ Îµ¦³Á · Ä 9 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2015 Á · »¨ µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F. 29.8

´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ 9!15# 1 55 +& 10FY

31.3

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥

+ -19.7

5.3

4.9

1.2 10FY

-1.2

´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤

-5.0 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/9mo

21.3

10FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

µ¦Á · »¨ µ¦ oµ

O.B) 24.6

24.9

17.0 6.7

6.7

E + 6+# 5m +CË + 1

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/9mo

¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶

-8.1

-4.0 -8.2

-11.8

-9.2

5 m +CË + 1 70 8n ;56+ ? m +/' - +m++0 / +(,m + 7 $ ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / m! ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 $ + / F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Æ + m # 8 5m + # 5 + m + 5 + 8 # 5 !.C 1/ 1 5 0 5 5 Æ 16 /-

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 5 m +CË + 1F1 9 1 +m? 2015 m 1 5 mm + m 1 5m + #

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/9mo

6.8

0.1

-7.7

11FY

12FY

13FY

-16.6

-16.0

14FY

15/9mo

www.ChartingThailand.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2015 GDP*

Singapore Ͳ Q2

21.2%

Taiwan Ͳ Q2

12.8%

South Korea Ͳ Aug

6.7%

Russia Ͳ Q3

4.9%

Philippines Ͳ Jun

4.1%

China Ͳ Q2

3.1%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

2.8%

Japan Ͳ Aug

2.8%

Euro Area Ͳ Aug

2.8%

Vietnam Ͳ 2014

2.7%

Malaysia Ͳ Q2

2.5%

Thailand Ͳ Q2

2.4%

Pakistan Ͳ Q2

-0.7%

India Ͳ Q2

-1.1%

Indonesia Ͳ Q2

-2.5%

US Ͳ Q2

-2.5%

Australia Ͳ Q2

-3.7%

Brazil Ͳ Sep

-4.2%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-429.0

¸ ¸¡¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 69.5

5 !.C 1 6 9!

72.8

5 !.C 16 9! (Current Account) ;5+ 0 6 /- ? 5m + # 5 + m + + 8 # ,0o 0 5 + 8 #/ 8o 0 C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + m +2& 5 !.C 16 9! F1+ +# 85 ? 9 E 8 E E1 0 6 &E955& C +& # 1? 6 n 5 !.C 16 9! F1 12 15$ 6 ? $5 + / F1+ 16m 5 55 +&

104.8 64.3 11.7 287.8 7.4 118.8 353.4 9.1 8.8 24.4 -2.6

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 + / / Æ0 5 !.C 16 9! m 1 50 mI 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 6$ 1F7.$ Å1 +(,m m F70$F1 C 8 + / +' Æ + 8F1 !1 m C$ 167+!,)0 , 1 F1+ +(,m E5m Å1; #D Ç 6 /-

-25.9 -21.6

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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2015 ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

69.0

74.4

76.1

75.3

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

100.6

104.3

10YE

11YE

130.

12YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 6! 6$ 1 $ 9

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

12YE

71 Ç $ + /

139.9

140.7

136.6

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

71 Ç $ + / 70 8n 8 # 71 6Ç 16$ 1/ Æ 0$FC$ / 1 + 17 #1 / Æ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / m$ ? 1Ç m! ; #0 n1 Æ , 1 F1 $ + / /! Ç 71 6Ç 1/ Æ0 m 8Ç 7+ 0$0 m 8Ç E 80 o + ; m9!1/ Æ # CË + 1 1 #1 E 8+ 0 71 6Ç 1/ m6m 5 1 5 / m + o/? m +m #8 0 + + 0 E 8- /. 5 m ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 C +& 6 F1+ 6m 5 1 55 +& C +& 6 F1+ +# 85 ? 9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 71 Ç $ + / 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m75! 2009 $ + 0Æ 5 5 F1 1 Ç

38.2%

13YE

34.5%

33.2%

14YE

15/2Q

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Ã ¦ ¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Á ¨¸¥É Â ¨ ¸ ¹Ê Ã ¥¤ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë

´¥q 5.11b –

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / /! Ç 70

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + /

o mC1 o +!,

16%

84%

11YE

71 +Ç 8 8 71 +Ç 8 6!1Ç

20%

80%

12YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

18%

82%

13YE

18%

82%

14YE

17% 45%

44%

55%

56%

11YE

12Y

83%

15/2Q

¤¸ ´ nª ® ¸Ê ¦³¥³¥µª

/ /! Ç 70

6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + /

43%

40%

6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / $ 0 - $ C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / 05!m(2 ? 5 m71 Ç C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / 0 5!m(2 ? + 8 5 1 1E 8+ 8 8 70 8n 0 mm $ 1 + 8 6!1Ç 70 8n 1# 8m $ 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 E + 6+# 71 Ç $ + / ? /8 5 Æ81 5 ?1 Ç E 80 6! 6$ 171 +Ç 8 8 9 0Æ ? 1Ç

57%

60%

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

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¤¸ µ¦ Îµ¦³® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É

´¥q 5.12b – ¯³

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / + 8 6!1Ç

370% 340% 312% 279%

277%

293%

4.7% 3.4%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

15/2Q

10FY

11FY

8.1%

06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + /

0 00 / Æ6 /# 1 06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / C +& 6 + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ç 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ç C +& 6 ! + 6$ 1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / $ m +6$ m

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ! + 6$ 1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / $ m +6$ m 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m m 4.7%F1 +0 6 +m Å1 8.1% F1 +0 6/ Æ6 8$ +mG + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ç 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ç mG8! n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ 5 o!8 (293%) DÆ 9 6+ # $ 06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / ? /88! 0$ 1$ Å1/ Æm! 5

4.7% 4.2%

12FY

4.0%

13FY

14FY

15/2Q

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Á · Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «¥´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °Â¤oªnµ ³¨ ¨ Á µo Â ¦ Â nµÁ · µ Å¤nÄ®o°n° Å ´ ´¥q 5.13a – ¥² ³ Â ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²©m´ ¥²Â ª* 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

73.9

2006

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

154.1

2009

191.7

206.4

205.8

2010

2011

2012

12.6 10.8

9.1 6.9

2006

2007

9.9

7.9

2008

2009

2010

2011

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

2012

Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¹É °µ ¤µ µ µ¦

16' + + 7 $ + /

190.2

180.2

168.8

2013

2014

Sep-15

16' + + 7 $ + / 6 1/+!98& $ + / / Æ n + E 8-1 +m5 5 6 0 +n1' 0 FC# + E8C1&/!1/ /Æ ' Å1 C$ 1 9 Æ m +C C8m +? 5m +CË + 1 7+ FC# Å1 + Æ 0 71 Æ F1m + ' 1 1 1E8 8 ! + 5m 5 Æ81 1! + 00 5 $ ? Net forward position / Æ- /.0 o + ; m9!1F16!.. currency forward contracts C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F16m 5 1 55 +& 67+!,) C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +nFC# CË + $ m + 1' ?# # ( m 1 80F7#FC# CË + # m 16 0 1)

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 9.1

9.5

9.7

2013

2014

Sep-15

+ ! 16' + + 7 $ + / 9 0Æ ? 1Ç m 4 /$ ! Ç $ 2005 $5 5 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? DÆ 0 # $ n mFC# F1m + /+m D $ 1 / 0$F7# $ 15 1!m 8$ +mG 0 Æ ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +n FC# CË + $ 6 1 # 1' ?# # mG9 $ 6 0 +nFC# CË + #n m 10 1DÆ n $ 6 m 1 0 ' Å1 0 m

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Ä Á º° . . nµÁ · µ ¦ ´ª Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ »¨Á · °ºÉ ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.17b –

2007 = 100

% / Æ 5 Æ81 5 m MYR Ͳ 8.429 114.0

Baht appreciates 112.0

AUD Ͳ 25.6645

110.0

EUR Ͳ 39.4362

108.0

IDR Ͳ 2.7675

MͲoͲM

Ͳ0.0%

106.0

Ͳ0.4%

Baht depreciates Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

KRW Ͳ 0.0313

102.0

TWD Ͳ 1.0991

100.0 Oct-15

INR Ͳ 0.5772

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

JPY Ͳ 29.7506 SGD Ͳ 25.6677

104.0

YͲoͲY

MXN Ͳ 2.15

PHP Ͳ 0.7737 GBP Ͳ 54.9621 CNY Ͳ 5.6739 VND Ͳ 0.0016 USD Ͳ 35.7589 Baht

Ç ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§ Â §·Ê¤

m /Æ 5# , 2 !1/ Æ 30/10/2015

! + 5m 5 Æ81 19.4 13.0 12.8

4.6 4.0 0.5 0.0 -1.0

C +& 6 !C1 $ 1 / (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) 6+# m $ >5 Æ8n$ 1' Ç 71!m? ! + 5m 5 Æ81+ 7 $ $ 1 / 5 $ 1 23 6m 5/ Æ6' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ ? /8 E 81' Ç 71!m / ÆFC# ? 1Ç 8 $m! 06' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ m + 9 0Æ ? 1Ç ? !C1 70 8n m + ?G $ ? 1Ç ? 1 / $ 10 ? C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 1 /Æ; 6m 5 1 $ I/ Æ6' !. 0 Æ / 8 m! 1 /E 8 ! m ! + 5m 5 Æ81 >5 Æ8/ Æ-1 +9 2 C8& 61 ? 8

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-2.3

F1 1 . . $ 1 //+ ! 0 Æ / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Æ1I 6' 7+! F1C$ 1 /Æ; $ 10 1 / $ 1 $ 5 0.4% 0 Æ / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Æ1IF1 m+# 1/ m +

-2.4 -4.5 -4.8 -5.3 -6.3 -8.7 depreciates

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