Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief ธันวาคม 2558

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Charting Thailand’s Economy

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ธันวาคม 2558 ISSN: 2286-6132

Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, December 2015 (Thai) Publication Date: December 2nd, 2015 Number of pages: 72

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ASK THE EDITOR ChartingASEAN™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any questions report, you can contact the chief editor directly at editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com.

DISCLAIMER The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please no findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information gather from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As su ChartingASEAN™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subseq incorrect.

es were made. you or your use.

dified material. y restrict others

and comments about this

ote that the red in good faith ch uently prove to be

+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m 6' 7+! ; # + 7 ++ ! 6 1!m5 / 1 7+ ; #/Æ6 1F 0 +(,m /8 $0 5 1# 8 F7#6 0 +n #+! m + + : 1 E1#0 0 Å1 ? +(,m /8 Å1 + ' 15 +! Ç

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µ¦Á­ ° o°¤¼¨Â¨³ µ¦ª·Á ¦µ³®r­£µª³Á«¦¬ · °¥nµ ¸¤É ´ Á È ³ εĮo µn º°Ê µ¥ ®¦º°¨ » Ä Ç

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Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

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´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

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¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · Ã Ä °´ ¦µ ¸ É n° oµ ´ª¦µªÇ 3%

´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.5%

7.2%

7.3%

6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.2%

2.8% 1.7% 0.8%

0.9%

-0.7% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

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˜n°Âž¸ Ă„Âœ­¾¤Ă…˜Œ¤¾­¨n¾­Â—

Last 5 Quarters

3.0%

! + m + E 9 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 + / /8 8# 175! 10 5 ! + m + E + 8 F16 Æ +0 65$ 6 ( / 8 m! + 0 6 8 m!1? m$ 171# ) Å1m +6 /# 1n m + ?8 8 ! ? + +(,m F1 $5 C$ 5 F1 Å1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + DÆ #1' ;5? 1 :# m 5# ! 5? ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 2 m++0m + 9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 2.8% 2.9%

2.1% 1.0%

! + m + E 9 ? /8 ! + m + E / Æ /# + >5 Æ8 ! Ç $ 2003 n 2014 /$ m! 3.4% F1C$ 10 /Æ; $ 10 0 9 8 2009 8 / Æ ! + m + E 5 m + E F1 2010 5 2012 1! $ 6 0 m 5 6 /# 1n m +: Ç 1 ! ? +(,m / Æ0!m + 8mm!1 $ 0 5m! (2 70 1 ! (V) m mV D ! 6' 7+! 6 0 +0 6 9+0& 5 /mo!8 05' ! 75! 6 +(,m /8 E F1 ! + / Æ $ 1?# ! + I 3% $

3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

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Œ¾¼Â‹n ¾¼Â‹ÂľÂ„„¾ŒÂšn°ÂŠĂ š¸¼Ă‰ ª¤¸­nÂŞÂœÂ?nª¼„¾Œà ˜¡Â?ĂƒÂ˜Ă„ÂœĂ…Â˜Œ¤¾­ ÂŒ´¼q— 1.08a – ƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡Â–n´Â›¼´¤ÂŠm´¤ 3Q15

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.08b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

% m + 5 Æ81 5

X (services)

17.5

GDP

2.9

C

1.7

GDP X (services) M (goods)

G

1.0

C

M (services)

0.8

G

I (capital) X (goods) M (goods) I

-1.2 -1.9 -3.3 -4.0

M (services) I (capital) I (Inventory) X (goods) Discrpncy

Note: (*) C = m + + Eo mC1, I = m +5 / 1 $ Å1 I (capital) = m +6 60/ 1 5 I (inventory) = m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 6 1 # 75 G = m + + Eo o +!,, X = m +6$ m6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0+ 8 # mm +/$ / Æ8 ), M = m +1' ?# 6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0 Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

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­Âš¸­Ă‰ ¾¤¤¾Â„š¸­Ă‰ —

–ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡ 3Q15

$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 m+ 8 $ 8 $ I

! + m + E 9 # 1+ 8 $ 8 +0 65$ 6

1.9

F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? + 8 $ 8 $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 +0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5 ? m + 5 Æ81 5 ? + 8 $ 8 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 871 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 8 $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1

2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

2.9 2.6

0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2 -2.3

0+ 8 $ 8m + / Æ8 /.) Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Æ + 8 $ 8 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 7+ 5 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Æ6 DÆ 0 ! 5? 5$ 6 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 0 7G1 # $ + 8 $ 8m +/$ / Æ8 0 ! + m + E 6 / Æ6 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Æ6 DÆ 7G1 # $ m +/$ / Æ8 0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E 0 m/ Æ6

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£µ ¦· µ¦¤¸­nª nª¥ µ¦Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É µ ¥´ nª µ¦Á · à à ¥¦ª¤ ´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 3Q15

´¥q 1.06b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Hotel&Res

10.9

Construction

7.7

GDP Transport

Transport

7.1

Trading

Health&Social

6.8

Hotel&Res

6.5

Financial

Financial Other social

5.4

Utilities

4.8

Trading

3.9

Private HH

3.1

GDP

2.9

RealEstate

2.5

Manufacture RealEstate Construction Utilities Health&Social Other social PublicAdmin

Education

1.1

Education

PublicAdmin

1.0

Mining

Mining

0.9

Private HH

Manufacture

0.8

Fishing

Fishing Agriculture

-3.1 -5.8

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Agriculture Stat diff

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¤¤¾Â„š¸­Ă‰ — ­nÂŞÂœÂŁÂľÂ‡Ă Â„ÂŹÂ˜ÂŚ

– ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡ 3Q15

$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 mo $ I 2.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2

! + m + E 9 + 8o m +;5 +0 6 5$ 6

F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 0 5 $ 9 0Æ ? ;5;5 F1o $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 + 0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5? m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o m +;5 71 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1o $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 8 6' 1!m 1 2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6

! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Æ m +;5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 7+ 5 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Æ6 DÆ 0 ! 5?5$ 6 F1 +0 6 3 2015 7G1 # $ o E+ +0 5 +# 1 7 + 0 m + E 6 6 6$ 1o m( +0 ! + m + E 5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Æ6 DÆ o + m +0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E ? 9 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 0 0 m/ Æ6 6$ 1o m( +8! n$ m + E + 0

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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®¨´ µ µ¦Á ¨¸¥É ¸ µ Ä®¤n ´ ¸ ¨ ¨· £µ °» ­µ® Ä ¨o ¸ n° °¥nµ ¤µ ´¥q 1.10 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£ (2011 = 100) 125.0

111.6

114.1 108.3

120.0

100.0 115.0

110.0

105.0

100.0

95.0

90.0

2011

2012

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

2013

2014

J

„ŒŒ¤Œ¾¼à —º°ÂœĂ„œž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ Â…¼´Â?Ă Â…oÂľ

‹§¡ĂŠ¤¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0

!C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0+ 0m +;5 F1 o 6 7m++0/ Æ6' !. n$ 1' Ç 71!m 00 5 $ 9 0Æ E 8FC# 2011 Å1 , 1E 8F7#0 $ /$ m! 100 !C1 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

2014

2015

F M A M J

J

F1+ 8 5 10 /Æ; $ 10 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0 0 m + E / / m 8m #1 8 $ 9 8 2009 / Æ m mV D ! 9+0&F1+ +(,m E5m 2011 / Æ m mV /mo!8 F1 + / 5 5$ 6 F1 2013 m 7 m +2& 0 0$6 / m + 0 75! mm + 5 Æ81 , 1F70$ !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0+ 8 1F1 1? Ç 8! ?# Fm5# m$ 1 8$ 0 m 8$ +mG 6' 7+! F1 1 . . !C1 ) +! 5 5 4.2% m m$ 1

A S O N D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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°Â˜­¾ŽÂ„ŒŒ¤­nÂŞÂœĂ„ÂŽÂ?n¤¸Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â˜¨Â—¨ÂŠÂ‹ÂľÂ„Â?nªŠà —¸¼ªÂ„´ÂœÂ…° ÂŒ´¼q— 1.11a – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Âž§Âž§œÂ—¼´¤¯ºÂ—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.11b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , . . 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Furniture

27.0

Furniture

Petroleum

9.2

Leather

Electrical

8.3

Food & Bev

Vehicles

8.3

Paper

Paper

0.7

Transport Equip

Food & Bev

-0.4

Apparel

Leather

-1.6

Machineries

Transport Equip

-3.2

Vehicles

Precision instru

-3.6

Wood products

Machineries

-4.8

Textiles

Rubber&Plastic

-6.2

Chemical

Textiles

-6.7

Precision instru

Metal products

-7.7

Rubber&Plastic

Mineral

-9.1

Electrical

Chemical

-9.7

Basic Matals

Basic Matals

-11.9

Mineral

Electronic

-13.7

Tobacco

Tobacco

-13.8

Metal products

Apparel Office automate

-17.3 -25.4

Wood products -82.0 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Office automate Petroleum Electronic

Šž¸ „n°Âœ

– Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Âž§Âž§œÂ—¼´¤¯ºÂ—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ

m 1m$ 1, . . 2015 9.4 7.2 6.5 5.9 3.7 3.0 2.9 0.7

!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1 8 m!1 m$ 171# C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 ?

!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1m$ 171#

0.5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0.3

F1 1 . . 6 7m++06$ 1F7.$0 ;5;5 5 5 mC$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 E 8 : +&1 +&0 m + ;5 9 0Æ 0 m? 1Ç 6 / Æ6

0.2 -2.9 -3.1 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -7.8 -7.9 -8.8 -10.3 -21.0

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°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¦´ ¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º° . ´¥q 1.12a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n Ï´§³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£

´¥q 1.12b –

% ? m' 5! m +;5 /! Ç 70

% ? m' 5! m +;5

70% 68% 66% 64%

Normal

62% 60% 58%

Seasonally adjusted

56% 54% 52% 50% May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Sep-15

Oct-15

Petroleum Electronic Electrical Leather Chemical Paper Rubber&Plastic Office automate Mineral Metal products Transport Equip Food & Bev Furniture Vehicles Precision instru Apparel Textiles Wood products Office automate Tobacco Basic Matals

. ¯³—¼´Âƒ´¼Ă…ÂŒnƒĂ?´§³Â‰Âƒ´¼Âž§œÂ—¼´¤¯ºÂ—Âą

/! Ç 70 , . . 2015 80% 78% 75% 73% 72% 68% 67% 64% 61% 60% 58% 55% 54%

! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 + 0? 6 7m++0 $ I ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 E 8+ 0 F1+ 8 5 7m 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 2 15$ 6 Ă…1+ 8 6 7m++0 FC# , 1 2011

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 +! 5 5 5Gm1# 8F1 1 . . E 8 E + 5 800 m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 6 / Æ6

6$ 1E57 ?!1Ç 0 5, 10 m +FC# 'Æ 6

52% 51% 49% 47% 45% 44% 43% 42% Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â˜°Â˜­¾ŽÂ„ŒŒ¤Â…°ÂŠĂ…ÂšÂĽÂ˜¡Â—¨Â?Ă‚¨³°¼Ÿnà „º°Â?Ϋʊšo¾¼à ¤ ÂŒ´¼q— 1.13 – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Âž§Âž§œÂ—¯º—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 5$ 6

Vietnam Ͳ Nov China Ͳ Oct Malaysia Ͳ Sep India Ͳ Sep Philippines Ͳ Sep Pakistan Ͳ Sep Euro Area Ͳ Sep South Korea Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Q2 Indonesia Ͳ Sep US Ͳ Oct

0

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

-1.2

Japan Ͳ Oct

-1.4

Russia Ͳ Oct

-3.4

Thailand Ͳ Oct

-4.2

Singapore Ͳ Oct

-5.4

Taiwan Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

-6.2 -10.8

¤º°Ă‰ š¸¼Â?„´Â?žŒ³à š°ºĂ‰ÂœĂ‡

8.9 5.6 5.1 3.6 3.6 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7

!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1E5m ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1F1 m$ 171# ? !C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1 + / $ I ?# 0 55$ 6 + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ 8 5' ! 0 ! + m + 5 Æ81 5 F1 + / $ I m0 m 1# 8 ;5;5 6 7m++0? /8 Å171 Æ F1 + / / Æ7 ! F1 15$ 6

.3

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14

Recommended Video

oµ » ¤¸Áª¨µ 2 ´ªÃ¤ É Á¦µ °Â ³ εª¸ ø ° ¸Ê Á¡º°É ¼¡ ʺ µ Á¦º°É ´ªÁ¨ Á«¦¬ · ¹ É ³ nª¥Ä®o » °nµ ¦µ¥ µ ° Á¦µÅ o­³ ª ¥· É ¹ Ê http://goo.gl/g1oOka

15

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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16

Ä Á º° . . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ® ´ªÂ n¥ ´ °¥¼nÄ ¦³ ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.14a – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯

´¥q 1.1

(2010 = 100)

% m + 5 Æ81

125.0

Se

120.0

2015 115.0

NonͲre 110.0

2014

Composite

105.0 100.0

NonͲdu 95.0

SemiͲdu

90.0 85.0

Du 80.0

J

F

M

A

Source: Bank of Thailand

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

³—´Â?š¸­Ă‰ ŸŠ„ªnÂľÂ?nªŠà —¸¼ªÂ„´ÂœÂ…°ÂŠ

4b – ¼´¤ÂŠm´¤Âƒ´¼ÂœÂĽÂśĂ„¢Â†Â™¡ĂŠ Ă?´Â†ÂłÂ?

!C1 m + + Eo mC1

1 5 m m$ 1, . . 2015

ervices

8.3

sident

2.2

Index

2.2

rables

1.4

rables

rables

-2.2

-7.2

Å1 !C1 C /Ç / m + Eo + Eo ? o mC1 E 8

' 1 2 m 5 & + m 75!m # m$ !C1 m +FC# $ 8 6 1 # 0$ /1 ( + m # 8 !C1 # 5 m Nielsen’s FMCG + 0 2m +FC# C Ç 95 + o/ $ I 5 + 0 2 m +FC# ::# o

+! + 1) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ç m Æ /1 ( + m # 88

# 5 m6 Æ / + Æ 1 $ 7$0 5 + 0 2 m +1' ?# 6 Æ / + Æ 1 $ 7$0) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ç /1 ( + m # 8 8 ' 71$ 8+n81 &1 !Æ +n !m+8 181 & 5 +n81 & C 9 2 C8&) !C1 m +FC# $ 8o + m + ( + m # 8 o ( 0 5 $ 9 0Æ m5 $0E+ +0 5 o! + 5 8 ? 8 + m +o

01 0?16$ ) 5 !C1 m +FC# $ 8? 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C ( + m # 8 ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C ) ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2010 Å1 , 1 0 m + ;8 9+$ Å1+ 8 1 5 $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Æ +! V m 5 5#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

F1 1 . . m + + Eo o mC17 ! $8! 8 $F1 + ! / Æ6 m $ C$ 8 m!1? /Æ 5# 6 1 # /1 5 m Æ /18! 0 8 ? 85 5

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17

µ¦¨ » ­ ­´ µ ¢ºÊ ´ª n°Á º°É

´¥q 1.15a – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯

´¥q 1.15b

(2010 = 100)

% m + 5 Æ81

122.0

Domestic M (2010

121.0

2015 120.0

2014

Import (201

119.0

118.0

117.0

Domestic Sa

116.0

Constructio

115.0

C p

114.0

J

F

M

A

M

J

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand

J

A

S

O

N

D

b – ¼´¤ÂŠm´¤Âƒ´¼§Â‰Â™ÂşÂ›Â™¡ĂŠÂŹĂ?´Â†ÂłÂ?

!C1 m +5 / 1o mC1

5 m m$ 1, . . 2015

Machinery sales* prices, Baht)

10.6

of Capital Goods 0 prices, Baht)

4.0

Composite Index

1.5

Å1 !C1 C /Ç / m +5 / 1o mC1 !C1 + m # 8 5 & + m # m$ 9 1Ç / Æ #+! 1 . m$ 6+# /! Æ + / !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 !6 m$ 6+# F1 + / m + 1' ?# 6 1 # / 1 2 + / Æ 2553 + 0 2m + ' 71$ 8 + Æ !m+ 5 m+2&F1 + / 2 + / Æ 2553 5 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8+n81 & 9 Æ m +5 / 1F1 + / $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Æ +! V m 5 5 >5 Æ8 5 Æ 1/ Æ 3 1 8m #19 1Ç / Æ+! 1 . m$ 6+# DÆ >5 Æ8 5 Æ 1/ Æ 9 1 ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2553 Å1 , 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

c Commercial Car ales Index

-2.8

on Material Sales -4.1 Index

6' 7+! F1 1m Ç +5 / 1 6 6!.. 2: Ç 1 ! $ 1 Æ E 8

!C1 m + ' 71$ 8 + Æ !m+F1 + / 0 m + 5 Æ81 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 m/ Æ6 $+n81 & 9 Æ m +9 2 C8&DÆ $ 1?# m Æ8 1 Æ m! - +m ?1 5Gm 8! 7 !

onstruction Area -6.2 permitted (sqm)

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18

µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °

´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª 5# 1 55 +&67+!,)

´¥§ º 7,000

15,936 6,000

14,747 12,899

5,000

4,000

8,562 3,000

6,411 2,000

3,720 1,000

2,474

0

08FY

09FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

°ÂŠÂž¸

m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + /

›Ä–¤Â—¼‰Š´ÂƒÂ—Â?™.²£¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / (Foreign Direct Investment : FDI) Å1- +m++0m +5 / 1/ Æ; #5 / 1/ Æ 0 n1 Æ , 1 m $ + / 0 $ - +m / Æ0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / + m # 8 15 / 1F1/ 1 + 17 #1 (Equity capital) DÆ 70 8n m +5 / 1 # 8m +n 7 #1/ Æ0 6 /- Ê +$ 0F1m + + 7 +m m + ! Ç $+# 85 10 ? 1Ç m + m #8 0+ 7 $ + (!/F1 + 5 m' +/ Æ1' m5! 0 5 / 1 ! /' E 8- /. C +& D# 8 6 0 5 $ m +5 / 1 E 8 + m /.+ 8 C +& ? 6 0 5 $ 6 60 + 8 1F1 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#

2015

2014

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +5 / 1E 8 + m /. 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 1 0 ?

J

F M A M

J

J

A

S O N D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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19

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ­· · ø °Å°¨ ¨ ° ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ 9!15# 1 /

1,023

648 525 396 236

10FY

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

13FY

14FY

°¼n¾Š¤¾Â„Ă„ÂœÂ?nªŠš¸Â&#x;É nÂľÂœ¤¾

ÂœÂŹÂśÂ™Âšœ œĂ‚ÂŞÂŤÂœ¡Ă„¯Æ¯ 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1E 8 + m /.6 /- /Æ 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 ( E m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / / Æ6 /# 1F16n m + 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 (6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 m

2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 0 1 8 0 $ Å1 E + m +/ Æ0 ; #n 7 #1 Å1C $ + / 0$1# 8m $ 10% ? / 1 / 81

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0 5 $ m +5 / 1E 8 + m /./ Æ? +! 6 /- E 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? 1 Ç E 8F1 8 1 +m0 0 5 $ 9 8 50 9!15# 1 / /$ 1!1Ç

288

50

2014/8M

2015/8M

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20

Â?¸ÂžĂ‰ Âťn ÂœĂ ÂžĂˆ œžŒ³à šš¸¤Ă‰ ¾¨ÂŠÂšÂťÂœĂƒÂ—ÂĽÂ˜ÂŚÂŠĂ„ÂœĂ…Âš¼¤¾Â„š¸­Ă‰ ÂťÂ—Ă‚Â˜nÂŚ °¼n¾Š¤¾Â„

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.16 – £§Â†m´Ă„Â†ÂĽÂ‰Âƒ´¼§Â‰Â™ÂşÂ›Ă„–¤Â—¼‰Š´ÂƒÂ—Â?™.™¡ĂŠÂŹÂŁÂłÂ†ÂĽĂ‚„n´¼³ÂœÂŹÂśÂ™Âš 6! 6$ 1 m0 5 $ 5 / 1/! Ç 70

11%

Others

27%

4% 10%

USA ANIEs ASEAN Europe

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

21%

25

2% 6% 10%

13

7%

7%

7%

10

17 58%

Japan

49%

54%

29

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

13FY

14F

Œ³¼³Ž¨´ÂŠ­´Â—­nÂŞÂœ¨Â—Âœo°¼¨ÂŠ

šœ œĂ‚ÂŞÂŤÂœ¡Ă„¯Æ¯

5%

6! 6$ 1m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / 8m + 8 + / 19%

13%

3%

%

13%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0%

7%

6! 6$ 1? 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1 m $ + / / Æn m 61 ? +! 6 /- 9 ( m 2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m + 5 / 1 $ 0+ 8 + / / Æ0 8$ +mG ! 5?/ Æ 6 1!1Ç 0 m +1! DËÇ F1E + m +/ Æ0 ; #n 7 #1 $ C m 171 Æ 6!.C

30%

. Æ $ 1 Å1 + / / Æ0 5 / 1E 8 + F1 /80 m/ Æ6 $ + 8 75! 6! 6$ 15 1# 85 8$ 0 m

5%

9%

FY

20%

2015/8M

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21

‡°ÂœĂƒÂ—¤¸à Âœ¸¼¤à ÂžĂˆ œ—´Â?Âœ¸°­´ÂŠŽ¾Œ¡¤ÂšŒ´¥¼r˜ª´ à —¸¼ªÂš¸¤Ă‰ ¸Â„¾Œà ˜

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.16a – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¯³Â‰­´¼œ£Â™¼³ ¤q

ÂŒ´¼q— 1.16b

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 9 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81

Condo unit registered

Value of land transaction

28.4

-6.2

New housing unit

-8.8

Constr. Area in municipal

-9.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

-47.0

˜¡Â?ĂƒÂ˜Ă„ÂœÂ?nªŠš¸Â&#x;É nÂľÂœ¤¾Â…°ÂŠÂž¸

b – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¯³Â‰­´¼œ£Â™¼³ ¤q

5 m 1m$ 1, m.8. 2015

!C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !. -27.5

-0.8

! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.F1C$ #1 n 1 ! !1 / 8 m! + 8 $ 8 8 m!1F1C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# ! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.F1C$ 15$ 6 / 8 m! 1m$ 171#

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

1E 0 1 80 Å1 !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98& ! 8 / Æ0 m + E F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? 2015

-5.1

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22

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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23

»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ ¸É¨ ¨ ¤µ ªnµ

´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.03b

10 1 +m, 9!15# 1 /

10 1 +m, 9!1 250

7,000 6,000

200 5,000 150

4,000 3,000

2014 2015 -1.5%

-7.8%

100

-5.3

2,000 50 1,000 0

0 -1,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

-50

Expo

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

„¾Œ­nŠ°°Â„

b – –º§Âƒ´¼Â†n´Ă…ݠm´Ă‚‰œ›–¯§§´¼q­¼³Â’Âą

15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

5m + #

3%

ort

Å1?# 0 5m + # + 7 $ + / / Æ #+! mm+0 5m m+ m+ /+ m + 5! ! /' F1+ 6n /Æ 6 n - +m++0m + 5 Æ 18# 86 1 # m ? +(,m ? + C 2 !m+ /8 1 m + C 2 !m+ 7+ 5 Æ 18# 86 1 # m1 m + C 2 !m+ ?# 0 F1+ C 2 !m+ /8 F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Æ E 8 + 5 06 1 # / m+ 8m +

5m + # F1+ 1 Ç 0$ /$ m! F1+ / Æ 6 F1C +& ?

5m +CË + 1 1 Æ m0 - ' 1 2/ Æ $ m!1F1 + 8m + C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? 5m + # # m$m +1' 0 5 $ m +6$ m6 1 # 5 # 80 5 $ m +1' ?# 6 1 #

-11.3%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

5m + # ?1 Ç 6 7 75!m mm +1' ?# / Æ5 5 0 mm $ m +6$ m

–

Import

=

Trade balance

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24

µ¦­n °° ¸ É ¦³Á ºÊ ° ¹Ê ´Ê ­µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ nµÁ · µ

´¥q 5.04a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ Å m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.04b

9!15# 1 /

9!15# 1 55 +&6

675

21

2015 650

20

625 19 600 18

2014 575

17 550

16

525

500

15

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

J

F

šš¸°Ă‰ n°ÂœÂ˜´ª¨ÂŠ

b –ƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒĂ…Â›Â†m´Ă‚‰œ›–¯§§´¼q­¼³Â’Âą

67+!,)

m +6$ m $ 0m5 $06 1 # -1 + 7$ + / /81' :# 0?# 0 5/ Æ + 0 5E 8 m+0 5m m+0 ! /' Å1 + 6 1 # m ' 1m 0o +(,m m1!1Ç ! Å1m5 $0 0 m m++0m +;5 5 +! ?# 0 5F7# Å1 01 8 0 5 - m + ! /' 5m +CË + 1 C +& 6 m +6$ m + 8 1 / 8 m! m$ 171#

2014

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +6$ m/ Æ +! ! ?1 Ç 1!1Ç Å1 >9 F1+ 1 / /$ 1!1Ç 6$ 1F1+ 1 55 +&m +6$ m8! ' Æ m $ C$ m$ 1E 8 5

2015

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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Ă„Âœ 10 à —º°ÂœĂ‚Œ„„¾Œ­nŠ°°Â„¼´ÂŠÂ‡ÂŠĂ ˜¡Â?ĂƒÂ˜Â˜¡Â—¨Â? ĂƒÂ—ÂĽÂž¡ ĂƒÂ˜ÂŚ ­¡ÂœÂ‡o¾à Â„ÂŹÂ˜ÂŚĂ ÂžĂˆ œ˜´ªÂŒÂť —Ž¨´Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.05a – ƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒÂ—´£Âƒ§ºm£œ›†n´

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.05b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 10 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Total export Optical instru Other export Automotive Jewellery Machinery Electrical Electronics Other manufacturing Photo instru Metal Agro products Forestry Toiletries Apparels Agriculture Footware PetroͲchemical Furniture ReͲexports Fishery Aircrafts Chemicals Petroleum Mining

-1.5 37.1 34.8 6.5 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.0 -0.7 -1.9 -2.2 -3.2 -4.4 -6.4 -7.9 -8.0 -8.7 -13.8 -15.6 -16.5 -23.9 -24.1 -46.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Total export Automotive Other export Optical instru Machinery Electronics Jewellery Electrical Other manufacturing Photo instru Forestry ReͲexports Footware Metal Toiletries Furniture Fishery Apparels Aircrafts Mining Agro products PetroͲchemical Agriculture Chemicals Petroleum

Œà ¨¸¼¤Ă‚¨³à ‡¤¸Œª¤Âš´ĂŠÂŠ ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Âƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒ

$ ? m +6$ m+ 0/ Æ0 m6 1 # $ I -1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +6$ mF1C$ / Æ;$ 1 0 ? C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 1 /? m +6$ mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# C +& # 1? 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E ? m +6$ mE 8+ 0 / Æ0 mm +6$ m 0m5 $06 1 # $ I

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +6$ m: Ç 1 ! F1 1m.8. $/ ! Ç 9 1 +m 8! E 5 E 8 E + 5 80 5 0 + 0/! Ç 6 1 # m( + Å1 ! > 75!m

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„¾Œ­nŠ°°Â„Ă„ÂœÂŚÂźÂžĂ ÂŠ¡ÂœÂ?ÂľÂšÂŽÂ—Â˜´ªĂ„ÂœĂ Â„º°Â?ÂšÂťÂ„Â˜¨¾Â—¼„à ªoœœ

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.07a – ƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒÂ—´£Â?¼²Ă‚™ªÂ?§´¤Â™´Â‰

ÂŒ´¼q— 5

6! 6$ 1 $ m +6$ m+ 0F1+ 1 /

% m + 5 ᪛ 7.3 (Trillion)

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

᪛ 6.9

Rest of the world

18.1

17.4

18.1

16.7

Middle East

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.2

Japan

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

9.6

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

10.3

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

12.0

East Asia exͲJapan

20.4

21.0

21.0

21.2

20.3

ASEAN

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

26.1

100% =

EU NAFTA

16.5

Rest of

East Asi

M 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

14FY

Âœ¾¢Â˜oÂľ

5.07b – ƒ´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Â„ÂŻÂ‰Âƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒ

5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 10 1 +m? 2015 NAFTA

8.7%

f the world

-0.6%

a ex Japan

-2.2%

EU

-2.8%

ASEAN

-3.2%

Japan

-4.1%

Middle East

5 8/ m +6$ m C +& 6 0 5 $ m +6$ m (F1+ 1 /) $ 6! 6$ 1 0 + / 5 8/ C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +6$ m6 $ $5 5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +6$ mF1+ 1 /7 ! F1 m / m 5 8m #1 1 : #

-8.8%

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„¾ŒÂœĂŽ¾à Â…o¾¨Â—¨ÂŠ 7.8% Ă„Âœ 10 à —º°ÂœĂ‚Œ„…°ÂŠ 2015 ­¾à ¥¨´ÂŠÂŠÂľÂœÂš¸¨Ă‰ —¨ÂŠ¤¾Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.09a – ƒ´¼Â›Ă?´Ă‚„n´Â—´£Âƒ§ºm£œ›†n´

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.09b –

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m /Æ 5# , 10 1 +m? 2015

% m + 5 Æ81 5 $

Total import

Total imp

-7.8

Consumer goods

5.5

Capital goods

0.3

Consumer goo

Capital goo

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-1.3

Oth

Others

-1.4

Intermediate Ͳ Non f

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

-35.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Intermediate Ͳ F

Ă ÂŽÂ˜Ž¨´Â„¤¾Â‹ÂľÂ„„¾ŒÂœĂŽ¾à Â…oÂľ

ž§Âƒ¼²Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰Âƒ´¼Â›Ă?´Ă‚„n´

? m +1' ?# + 0/ Æ0 m6 1 # $ I

ort

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? m +1' ?# F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ?

-7.8

ods

0.5

ods

0.1

ers

-0.1

uel

-0.5

uel

C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1? 0 5 $ m +1' ?# F1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 71# C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E E 8+ 0 / Æ0 ;50 mm + E F1m5 $06 1 # $ I

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

m +1' ?# 5 5 7.8% F1 10 1 +m? 2015 6 7 75!m0 mm +1' ?# 95! 1/ Æ5 5 0 m

-7.7

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­´Â—­nÂŞÂœÂ„¾ŒÂœĂŽ¾à Â…o¾…°ÂŠÂšÂťÂ„„¨n¤à ¥¡¤Ă‰ Â…šĂŠ Âœ Ă Âœº°Ă‰ Š¤¾Â‹ÂľÂ„„¾Œ¨Â— ÂŒ´¼q— 5.08 – ³–mŠÂ›Âƒ´¼Â›Ă?´Ă‚„n´ 6! 6$ 1 $ m +1' ?# + 0F1+ 1 / ŃŽ 5.9

ŃŽ 7.0

ŃŽ 7.8

ŃŽ 7.7

Others

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.2

Capital goods

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.3

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

44.0

40.0

37.5

35.7

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

17.4

18.9

18.9

20.8

Consumer goods

7.5

7.5

7.8

8.0

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

—¨ÂŠÂ…°ÂŠ­´Â—­nÂŞÂœ¥¨´ÂŠÂŠÂľÂœ

ŃŽ 7.4

ŃŽ 5.7

8.1

8.4

24.2

(Trillion)

26.1

6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# 0 5 $ m +1' ?# (F1+ 1 /) $ 06! 6$ 1 0 5!m(2 / +(,m ? m5 $06 1 #

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

38.3

6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# ? / mm5 $0 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 1 Æ 0 mm + 5 5 ? 6! 6$ 195! 1 40.7

20.8

15.1

8.7

9.8

14FY

15/10MO

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Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÅ o¦ ´ ¨ ¦³ µ Á® » µ¦ r¦³Á ·

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ 5# 1 +! Ç

26.5

CAGR

10.6%

24.8 22.4 19.2 15.9

14.5 11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

Source: Department of Tourism

°¼n¾ŠÂ?´Â—Ă Â‹Âœ

' 1 11!m/$ / 8Æ

¤¯Â–¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

C +& D# 80 6 ' 1 1 +! Ç F1m + ?# 0 F1 + / /8? 1!m/$ / Æ8 $ C + 8 C +& ? 0 6 8 6 60+ 8 1? ! !1 5 m$ 171# + 0 5E 8m+0m +/$ / Æ8 E 8FC# ?# 0 5 m 6' 1!m 1 + 1 ?# 0

3.0

2015 2.5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

2.0

2014 1.5

1.0

' 1 11!m/$ / Æ8 #+! ;5m+ / m 7 m +2& + 8$ C! 1 E 8F1 1m.8. ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Æ8 5 5 20% m 1m$ 171# E 8 0# 9 0Æ ? 1Ç F1 1 . . $mG8! /' # /$ m! C$ 8 m!1 ? m$ 1 /$ 1!1Ç 6' 7+! 10 1 +m ! + m + 9 0Æ ? 1Ç ? 1!m/$ / Æ8 8! 6 5 5 Å1 24.2% mC$ 8 m!1F1 /Æ 5#

0.5

0.0

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Âœ´Â„šn°ÂŠĂ š¸¼Ă‰ ª‹¾„‹¸ ÂœĂ‚¨³¤¾à ¨à ÂŽ¸¼à Â…o¾¤¾à ¥¡¤Ă‰ Â…šĂŠ Âœ¤¾Â„š¸Ă‰­Â—Ă„Âœ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.19a

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.19b

ŠĂ?´Â›ŠÂ›Â†ÂĽÂłĂ‹Â‰Ă…›ƒ´¼Ă‚„n´£´Â„ÂŻÂ‰Â›ÂłÂƒÂ™m¯‰Â™¡ĂŠ¤Š ĂƒÂœm‰—´£³Â?ÂŒ´Â—Âś

10 ÂŻÂłÂ›Â–ÂłÂœÂ„ÂŻÂ‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ £´ÂƒÂ™¡ĂŠÂŹÂşÂ–Ă‚£šĂŠÂŻĂ‚™¡¤ÂœÂƒ

6! 6$ 1? /! Ç 70

10 1 +m 2015, 9!1

Rest of world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.6 5.3

27.9

51.2

10FY

14.7 5.0

26.5

53.8

11FY

13.8 4.8

25.3

56.0

12FY

11.9

11.9

China

4.4

4.5

Malaysia

23.8

59.9

13FY

24.8

58.8

14FY

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Korea

191.3

Hong Kong

185.3

Taiwan

161.5

Vietnam

154.9

Japan

122.3

India

120.8

Singapore

99.8

Laos

82.1

ÂœÂ?nªŠš¸Â&#x;É nÂľÂœ¤¾Â…°ÂŠÂž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ

™ª™¡ĂŠ£¡ÂŠĂ?´Â›ŠÂ›Âƒ´¼Ă‚„n´£´Â™m¯‰Â™¡ĂŠ¤ŠĂ‚ œĂŠÂŁ ÂƒÂłÂœÂŒmŠÂ‰Ă‚–¡¤ŠÂƒÂłÂ›Â„¯‰Â?d™¡ĂŠĂƒ§nŠ

+! Ç

' 1 11!m/$ / 8Æ 06!.C 2,982.7 875.9

6! 6$ 1? 1!m/$ / Æ8 06!.C m ' 1 1 +! Ç F1m + ?# 0 /$ / Æ8 /! Ç 70

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

6! 6$ 11!m/$ / Æ8 06!.C 0$ 5 Æ81 5 0 m 1!mF1+ 8 7m 75! 1!m/$ / Æ8 m C 8 !1 m ?# 0 Å16! 6$ 16 / Æ6 5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç + Æ 8I F1+ 8 7m 75! 6' 7+! F1 11 Ç !m/$ / Æ8 m 1 5 0 5 D 8 ?# 0 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 0 m/ Æ6

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä Á º° . .  n¥ ´ °¥¼n 뵃 ªnµ ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70

1

1.83

1

1.51

1.49 1.38

1

1.38

0

1.04 0.84 0.68

0.66

0

0.72

0

0

0 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

1%

‹§¡ĂŠ¤¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â›

! + m + $ 1

1.40

1.20

1.00

2015

0.80

0.60

2014

0.40

' 1 2 mm +m +6' + o m +/' 1? + C m+ DÆ 6' 1!m 16n 7$ C Å1; # ' 1 1m +6' + 5 + 0 5;5 ! + m + $ 1 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 1 7 + # 8 ' 1 1m' 5! + 1 ; # $ 1 70 8n

5/ Æ0 8 15 ?1 Ç 5 F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + 0 5!m(2 8$ 71 Æ 8$ F ! $ 1 Ç 0$ #/' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' $ #7 1 60! + 17+ + m + ++ F1 + 7 $ 30 !1 m$ 1 !16!0o (2& 0$ #/ ' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' 5 0$ #7 1/' F1+ 7 $ 30 !1m$ 1 !1 6!0o (2& $9+# 0/ Æ /' 1F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + m' 5! + 1+ 0 70 8n

5/ m 1/ Æ0 8 15 ?1 Ç F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + Å1; # 8 $F1m' 5! + 1 ! !1 7+ Å1; #n m ! ' 1m 8 $F1 + o/m' 5! + 1 / Æ+ V m 5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

0.20

! + m + $ 1 9 0Æ ? 1Ç F1 1 . . $8! 8 $ 'Æ m $ 1%

0.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D

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°´Â˜ÂŚÂľÂ„¾ŒªnÂľÂŠÂŠÂľÂœĂ„ÂœÂžŒ³à ÂšÂŤĂ…ÂšÂĽÂ˜ĂŽÂľĂ‰ ¤¾Â„à ¤º°Ă‰ à š¸¼Â?„´Â?žŒ³ ÂŒ´¼q— 2.09 – ¯³—¼´Âƒ´¼Šm´Â‰Â‰´Â›Ă…›Â?¼²Ă‚™ª—m´Â‰Ăˆ mm +6' + 5$ 6 , % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70

Thailand Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Q3

0.9 2.0

South Korea Ͳ Oct

3.1

Japan Ͳ Oct

3.1

Malaysia Ͳ Sep Hong Kong Ͳ Oct Vietnam Ͳ 2014 Taiwan Ͳ Oct China Ͳ Q3 India Ͳ 2013 US Ͳ Oct Russia Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Oct Pakistan Ͳ 2014 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q3 Brazil Ͳ Oct Euro Area Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.5

³à š°ºĂ‰Âœ

! + m + $ 1F1 $5 + / m + + 8 / 8 ! + m + $ 1F1 + / $ I + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + m + $ 1F1 + / /8 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I 5# 8! n $ ' Æ / Æ6 F1?2 / ÆF1 + / 9!41 5# 0 ! + m + $ 1 $ 1?# 6 E 8 >9 F18 E+ED1

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­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ¸ÄÉ Á º° ¡.¥.

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤ .

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Nov-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%

Max

2.50%

Min Dec-14

0.00% Nov-15

Dec-14

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

—¼´Â–ÂŻÂƒĂ‚Âœ¡Ă‹¤Â„n´£Â†šÂ› BIBOR*

! + m 8Ç 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Nov-15

C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç 1E8 8? - /. ( ! +

m 8Ç D Ç 19!1- ! + 1 !1) F1+ 8 5 12 1 5$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç F1 5 m #8 0 1 !1+ 7 $ -1 + F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6

C +& D 6 ! + m 8Ç 1< m 0/+!98&F1 -1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Æ 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ç 1m #5 m # C!1Ç

F1-1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Æ 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

—¼´Â–ÂŻÂƒĂ‚Âœ¡Ă‹¤Ă‚Â‰ÂśÂ›Âƒ§n ƒ Âť †n´ÂŒÂłÂ› Ă‹ –¡ š. ´Â•ÂśÂŒ¤q 10.00%

Max 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50% 0.00% Nov-15

# 8 + m

!1 m 1 E1#0m + E / +(,m / Æ 0$ 1!m 5 m + ?$ m!15

$ 1? + / Æ1I /' F7# F1 10 Ç m +5

m 8Ç 1E8 8 5# n 6 +! Ç + 0m!1 0.5% m +5 ! + m 8Ç n Å1m +FC# 1E8 8m + 1F1m +m+ #1 +(,m 7+ m1!871 Æ

0 # $ 2 m++0m +1E8 8m + 10 $ m + E +(,m 8! # m +m +m+ #1 8$ + mG ! + m 8Ç 1E8 8/ Æ 1.5% F1 ! !1 ?# Fm5# 18&0 m 5# 5 ' m! m + ' 1 11E8 85 ! +

m 8Ç 9 Æ m+ #1 +(,m F1 1 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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36

¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨Á · n µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °

´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 2500

2000

2015

1500

1000

500

0

D

Source: Bank of Thailand

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

Šž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ

+ 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 +!, 58! 0 098 8 0 +$ m + m $ 8 + 0 2 9 Æ m +m+ #1 +(,m E 8F1C$ 9 1/ Æ;$ 10 0 + 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 9% 0 Æ / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? /Æ 5#

2014

m +FC# $ 8o +!,6 0 +nm+ #1m + E / +(,m # $ 7+ 8. m # 1mG 1!8m + 5! DÆ + # F1 + Æ 5 + 0 2m!1 m/

S

O

N

D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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37

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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38

£µ »¦ · ¨´ ¤µ¤° è Ä Â n ¸­nª °» ­µ® ¦¦¤¤° à ´¥q 1.18a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³Ê º¥ ¶ *

´¥q 1.18b

100

200

Better

Better

50

100 50.3

49.1

46.4

46.4

47.3

50.2 85.4

Worse

84

Worse

0

0 May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

May-15

Jun

Note: (*) Below is the i Index = 100 i Index > 100 i Index < 100 i

Ăƒ¨Â„Ă„ÂœĂ‚ÂŠn¨Â—¨ÂŠĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂ˜.‡. – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Â†Š´£Ă‚ÂŒšĂŠÂŻÂŁÂłĂŠÂ›¢´Â†ÂŻÂşÂ—´­ÂƒÂĽÂĽÂŁ**

0 C Æ 0!1Æ - +m C +& 6 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ o - +m ! /' E 8m +6' + ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 mm5 $0 ! 8$ 1,500 + 8 E 8 m +6' + + 0Æ 6$ 6 n 0F1C$ 6! 7&6 /# 8? 1/ Æ6' + 5 + + 0 + 0 5;5F16! 7&/Æ 3 ? 1n! !C1 0 $ /$ m! 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m /+ ! ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) !C1 0 $ 0 mm $ 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m ?1 Ç ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 0 mm $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$ 5 ) !C1 0 $ 1# 8m $ 50 70 8n 0 C Æ 0!1Æ / - +m 8$ ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ç 0 1# 8m $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 )

4.0

n-15

83.0

82.4

82.8

84.7

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

nterpretation of the index: ndicates that industries sentiment remains stable ndicates that industries sentiment has improved ndicates that industries sentiment has worsened

C +& 6 !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ o 6 7m++0 ! /' E 8 6o 6 7m++0 7$ + / /8 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! ' Æ m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0 6o 9 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ 0$ $

!C1 8 $F1+ ! 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++0 0 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$0 m + 5 Æ81 5 7+ 8 $F16o 9/+ ! F1+ ! 0 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 6 m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Æ 0!1Æ $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0 6o 9 ?1 Ç 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

o - +m m5! 0 0 E5mF1 $ 6$ 1 6 7m++00 E5mF1 $5 5 F1 1 . . Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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Â&#x;ÂźÂ?o Œ¡ĂƒÂŁÂ‡¤°ÂŠĂƒ¨Â„Ă„ÂœĂ‚ÂŠnÂŚÂľo ¼¨Â—¨ÂŠĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂ˜.‡. ÂŒ´¼q— 1.17 – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Â†Š´£Ă‚ÂŒšĂŠÂŻÂŁÂłÂ› ĂŠ žnÂœÂĽÂśĂ„¢Â† 100

100

Overall

Better

On job

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

(*) 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0-100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I ?1 Ç 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$ 5 Æ81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 F$ 1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Æ m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$ Source: Ministry of Commerce

100

!C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ ; # + Eo

On future income

! /' E 8m+ /+ 9 2 C8& m 6 n 0 ! 8$ m + C C1/! Æ + / 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0

0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I ?1 Ç 7+ 8 $F1+ !

n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0

0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 0$ 5 Æ81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 $F1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Æ m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ç I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$

Better 50 Worse

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

; # + Eo 0 E5mF1 $+# 85 5 F1 1 . . E 8 !C1

0 C Æ 0!1Æ ; # + Eo 75!m 9 0Æ Å1 36.2 $8! ' Æ m $ ! / Æ 50 C$ 1 8 m! !C1 0 C Æ 0!1Æ # 1 m +7 1 5 + 8 #F1 1

0 Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

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40

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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41

­£µ¡´ r ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · à ° ´Ê ¸ ¸Ê ¨ ° ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

´¥q 1.03b –

6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $

6' 7+! 2016, % m + 6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00 The Economist poll

FPO

3.50

NESDB

3.00

BOT

2.50

2.00 A-15

M-15

J-15

J-15

A-15

S-15

O-15

N-15

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

A-15

M-15

J-1

Foreca

°¸Â„‡Ϋʊ

Â?¼²£´Â•Âƒ´¼Â•qƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡

5 Æ81 5 $

15

6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50 The Economist poll 4.00

FPO BOT

3.50

NESDB 3.00

2.50

2.00 J-15

A-15

S-15

O-15

N-15

+ 0 2m +2&m + E ? 9 m + + 0 2m +2& ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 F1 ! !1 5 $ E 871$ 8 1 $ I C$ 1 -1 + 7$ + / /8 (BOT) 6o 9!41&) (NESDB) 6' 1!m 1 +(,m m + 5! (FPO) 5 E955&? 1 86 + E E10 6 & m + + 0 2m +2& 75$ 1 0Ç m + 5 Æ81 5 06n 1m +2& 5 ?# 0 55$ 6

! 1!1Ç 0 m + +! 5 Æ81 8 $ 60 m + +! 5 Æ81 75$ 1 mÇ Gn $ 6 0 +n6 /# 10 00 $ 6o +(,m Ç 71# ? 6' 1!m $ I # C +& # 6 m + + 0 2m +2&? $5 6' 1!mF1 $5 C$ 5 # 9 Æ m + + 8 / 8 5 8# 175!

m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6

6o 9!41& +! 5 + 0 2m +2&m + E ? /! Ç 1 Ç 5 m +! Ç 6' 7+! m + + 0 2m +2&m + E 9 ? 6' 1!m $ I 8 $+ 7 $ 2.7-3.4% 6' 7+! 2015 5 3.5-4.0% 6' 7+! 2016

ast as of, month ending

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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ rªnµ ³Á · à ŠoÄ ¦³ ´ µ ¨ °ºÉ Ç Â n 뵃 Á º° ­» Á¤º°É ¼Á ¡µ³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·

´¥q 1.04

6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 30/11/2015

6' 7+! 2016,

India China Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Singapore South Korea Hong Kong US Australia Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia

India Vietnam 6.9 China 6.4 Philippines 6.3 Malaysia 5.7 Indonesia 5.4 Pakistan 4.7 Thailand 3.4 Singapore 3.2 South Korea 2.9 Taiwan 2.4 Australia 2.4 US 2.4 Hong Kong 2.3 Euro Area 1.5 Japan 0.7 Russia -0.4 Brazil -1.2 7.3

-2.8 -3.9

Source: The Economist

¨¾ÂŠà ¤º°Ă‰ à š¸¼Â?„´Â?žŒ³à š

b – Â?¼²£´Â•Âƒ´¼Â•qƒ´¼Ă‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠ¡Â–¡ ¡ % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 30/11/2015 7.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.1

m + + 0 2m +2&m + E m.F1 + / $ I m + m +2&m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 F1 ? +(,m $ I/ Æ6' !.? E5mE 8E955&? 1 86 +

E E10 6 & 6 0 +nFC# / 8 ! + m + E F1 $5 ? +(,m # 0 m + ;8 9+$/ mI6! 7&F11 86 +

E E10 6 &

m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6

6' 7+! 2015 5 2016 +(,m /8n m m +2& $ E #F1+ ! 1m5 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I $ 'Æ m 6 0 Æ >9 F1 D 81 E 8 1 8n m

$ E 6 / Æ6 F1 ++ +(,m ?1 F7.$ 6 m $ 1/ Æ + C0 &m + E 6 / Æ6 0 5 F1 + 8 75!

1.7 1.2

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43

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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44

Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ´ªÉ Å ¥´ Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ Á º°É ¤µ µ ¨ ° ¦µ µ¡¨´ µ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢

´¥q 3.07b

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

% m + 5 Æ81 5

Veg

1.50%

Tobacco & a

Food away from

1.00%

Recreation & Edu

Core*

Medic

0.50%

Prepared food at

Apparel and foo 0.00%

Non alcoholic bev -0.50%

Head line

Housing & furn

-1.00%

Sea

Eggs -1.50%

Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15

Transport & C

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

˜¡Â—¨Â?‹¾„ž¸ „n°ÂœÂŽÂœoÂľ

b – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¼´Â†´ÂžÂťnÂœÂĽÂśĂ„¢Â†¼´¤Âƒ§ºm£œ›†n´

5 m m$ 171# , 9.8. 2015 & fruit

2.9

!C1 + ; # + Eo

!C1 + ; # + Eo Å1 !C1 /Æ m+ ! + /! Æ ? 6 1 # 5 + m +/ Æ; # + Eo FC# $ 8 m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo Å1/ Æ1 80FC# F1m + ! ! + 1 :# ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8&

alcohol

1.8

m home

1.4

ucation

1.3

al care

0.9

t home

0.9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

otware

0.5

verage

0.5

Meat

0.5

F1 19.8. !C1 + ; # + Eo /! Æ 8! 5 Æ81 5 5 m m$ 171# 1 Æ 0 m;5? + 95! 1 $ 0 Æ !C1 + 6 1 # m5 $0 Æ1mG8! 9 $ 6$ 1F7.$ 9 0Æ ? 1Ç m m$ 1

nishing

0.1

Rice

0.1

soning

-0.1

& milk

-0.9

Commu

Energy

-6.1 -14.9 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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45

Á n Á ¸¥ª ´ ­· à ¦r ¦³Á «Å ¥¤¸ ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¨ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Ä§ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

Latest

Russia Ͳ Oct

15.6

Brazil Ͳ Oct

9.9

Indonesia Ͳ Oct

6.2

India Ͳ Oct

5.0

Malaysia Ͳ Oct

2.5

Hong Kong Ͳ Oct

2.4

Pakistan Ͳ Oct

1.6

Australia Ͳ Q3

1.5

1.

China Ͳ Oct

1.3

1.

South Korea Ͳ Oct

0.9

0.8

Philippines Ͳ Oct

0.4

Japan Ͳ Oct

0.3

Vietnam Ͳ Nov

0.3

Taiwan Ͳ Oct

0.3

0.1

US Ͳ Oct

0.2

0.3

Euro Area Ͳ Oct

0.1

0.1

Singapore Ͳ Oct

-0.8

Thailand Ͳ Nov

-1.0

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.7

0.2 0.8

—¨ÂŠÂ‹ÂľÂ„ž¸ „n°ÂœÂŽÂœoÂľ

2015* 15.0 8.9 6.4 5.0 2.5 3.1

1 :# F1E5m m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo F1 + / $ I m + m +2& ! + 1 :# ? /! Ç E 8 E

E10 6 &E955&

3.9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

.7

C$ 1 8 m! 6 E +& + / /80 !C1 + ; # + Eo

5 5 m m$ 171#

6

2.4

2.5

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46

¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ¼ o ¨· ¥´ 뵃 ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶

´¥q 3.09

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#

% m + 5 Æ81

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0%

Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Ene M Pulp & pa Other manu go W Tex Leather & footw Mechin Fore Fore NonͲmetallic min F C Electrical eq Chem Basic me Livesto Rubber & pla Fish Petroleum prod

9b – Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡¼´Â†´ÂžÂťnž§œÂ—¼´¤œÂ›Â†n´

5 m m$ 171# , 9.8. 2015

ergy Metal aper oods Wood xtile ware nery estry estry neral Food Crop quip mical etals ocks astic hing ucts

6.0 5.1 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3

!C1 + ; #;5 ! + 1 :# F1+ ! ; #;5 ! E 8 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 + ; #;5 ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8& C +& 6 n m + 5 Æ81 5 F1 !C1 + 0 5 8m 0+ 8 6 7m++0

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ ! ; #;5 8! ' Æ m $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1F1 19.8. E 8+ ! + ; #;5 F1 15 ' Æ 5 3% 5 0 Æ + 86 1 # mG9 $ 6$ 1F7.$0 + ! + / Æ 5 5 # 8 C$ 1m!1

-1.2 -2.0 -3.3 -4.1 -4.2 -4.4 -9.9 -24.4 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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47

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

This section is sponsored by

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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48

­· Á ºÉ°¥´ ¥µ¥ ´ªÂ¤oªnµ ³ 뵃 ªnµ nª n° ® oµ ¸Ê ´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9!15# 1 / 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Å­n¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 100% 96.4%

95.7%

95.7%

95.4%

94.9%

94.8%

94.5%

94.5%

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

95%

90% Oct-14

Nov-14

Source: Bank of Thailand

Dec-14

May-15

5

This section is sponsored by

6 1 C Æ ? -1 +9 2 C8&

Jun-15

96.5%

Jun-15

M-o-M

Y-o-Y

+0.4%

+5.3%

Jul-15

Aug-15

-1 +9 2 C8&/' 71# / Æ+! 1< m 5 5$ 8m # !C1 m + 5$ 8m # $ 1< m/! Ç 70 Å16 Æ / Æ6 /# 1n m + 6!09!1-&? o +(,m / Æ /# + m! o

m + 1 n# !C1 0 $ 6 6 /# 1n m +/ Æ0 E m 6F1 m +5 / 1 ( 5$ 8m #) #0 m n# !C1 0 $ ' Æ mG 6 /# 1n 6n 1m +2& + m!1?# 0 Sep-15

97.1%

97.3%

97.3%

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

6 1 C Æ 8! ?8 8 ! 0# $ ' Æ m $ C$ m$ 171# 1 Ç F1?2 / Æ6o 9 5$ F1+ -1 + + 0Æ ! 5Gm1# 8 E 8 ! + 6$ 1 1F7#6 1 C Æ $ 1< m? -1 + 9 2 C8&DÆ 6 /# 16o 9 5$ ? + -1 +/+ ! / Æ 97.3%

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49

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ´Ê ®¤ ´¥q 3.03a – ­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 9!15# 1 /

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

270

256

267

2

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14

2.26%

2.16%

2.

12YE

13YE

14

´¥q 3.03b – ­ ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Å­n ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

07YE

08YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

09YE

10YE

2.75%

11YE

This section is sponsored by

­´Â—­nÂŞÂœÂ˜n°¼°Â—à Š¡ÂœÂ„Âź o

71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #

299

278

4YE

312

361

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

Gross NPLs 70 8n 8

# ? 1F7#6 1 C Æ

# 8 2o 9 # m$ 1F7#61 C Æ ! C!1Ç ' Æ m $ 0 +, 1 6 6!8 6 6!8 6 . 5 6 . 0 m2A& m + ! C!1Ç ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 C +& 6 71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #? /! Ç + 6n !1m + 1 /! Ç F1+ ! 1 5 6! 6$ 1? 8 5$ 8m #/ ! Ç 70

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

71 /Ç Æ 0$m$ F7# m + 8 # 9 0Æ ? 1Ç /! Ç F1 # 10 5 $ 5 F1+ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70 F1 +0 6/ Æ6 0

16%

4YE

2.29%

2.38%

2.79%

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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50

­´Â—­nÂŞÂœĂ ÂŠ¡ÂœÂ„°ÂŠÂšÂťÂœÂ…°ÂŠÂ›ÂœÂľÂ‡¾Œ¥¾Â–¡Â?ÂĽrà ¥¡¤Ă‰ Â…šĂŠ ÂœĂ„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂ„. Œ³—´Â?­ŸÂŠ ÂŒ´¼q— 3.04 – ¯³—¼´mŠÂ›Ă‚Â‰ÂśÂ›ÂƒÂŻÂ‰Â™ÂşÂ›Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂšÂ›´Â†´¼ ´Â•ÂśÂŒ¤q 6! 6$ 1 $ 6 1/+!98& 6 Æ8 2 6 1Ç 16.8% 15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

15.7%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2014

This section is sponsored by

.ÂĽ. Ă‚¨³¼´ÂŠÂ™º°ªn¾°¼ŸnĂ„Âœ

• œË›Â–š¯Â› 17.5%

! + 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 2015

17.0%

2014 16.5%

1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& / 81F1 + / 70 8n 6$ 1? ; #n 7 #1 6 1/+!98& 6 Æ8 70 8n 6 1/+!98&n$ 1# 71!m 0 0 6 Æ8 /! Ç 6 1Ç DÆ Å1 8 + 0? + 8m +F1 m + 1/ Æ #n$ 1# 71!m 0

0 0 0 6 Æ8 ( 0 + m - /.) ! + 6$ 1 8 Æ 6 8 Æ 6 n 00!1Æ F1+ -1 +

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

16.0%

6! 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 9 0Æ ? 1Ç Å1 17.3% F1 1m.8. DÆ n $ 8 $F1+ ! 6 15.5%

15.0%

14.5%

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51

¤¸Ž¨¾¼ÂžŒ³à šš¸¤Ă‰ ¸°Â˜´ Œ¾—°Â„Ă Â?¸ĂŠ ¼š¸Ă‚É šo‹Œ¡ÂŠÂ˜¡Â—¨Â? ÂŒ´¼q— 3.05 – Â?¼²£´Â•Âƒ´¼Â•q¯³—¼´Â–ÂŻÂƒĂ‚Âœ¡Ă‹¤Â™¡ĂŠĂƒÂ™nŠ¼œ‰ 2 !1/ Æ 27/11/2015

ŕľž

3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil

Expected 2015 inf

14.3

Russia

8.9

12.6

Indonesia

8.7

India

6.4

7.1

Pakistan

5.0 3.9

6.5

Vietnam

2.5

4.7

Malaysia

3.7

2.5

China

3.1

1.6

Australia

2.7

1.7

Singapore

2.5

Philippines

2.2

0.2 2.4

South Korea

1.7

0.8

Thailand

1.4

0.8

Taiwan

0.9

0.1

US

0.4

0.3

Hong Kong

0.4

Japan

0.1

Euro Area

-0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

3.1 0.7 0.1

This section is sponsored by

flation*

=

Real interest rates 5.4

15.0

-2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.2

! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + F1 + / $ I C +& 6 - 71 Æ F1m + ' 1 2 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + E 8 + 0 2m +2& ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + F1 ! !1 = ! + m 8Ç - ! + 1 :# m +2&

1.2

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

1.5

0 75 8 + / / Æ0 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + 5 6$ 1 + / /8 ! + m 8Ç / Æ /# + + 0 2 8 $/Æ m 1%

1.0 2.3 -0.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.1 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2

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Ă„ÂœĂ Â—º°ÂœÂĄ.ÂĽ. —´Â?Âœ¸ SET žΫÂ?¨Â—¨ÂŠ 2.5% šn¾¤Â„¨¾ÂŠÂ„¾ŒĂ… ˜n¾ŠÂ?ÂľÂ˜¡°¸Â„Œ³¨°Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 3.06a – ƒ´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Ă…Â›Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡ SET

ÂŒ´¼q— 3.06c – ƒ´

% m + 5 Æ81 5 m 1m$ 171#

2 !1/ Æ 28/10/2015 China (SSEB, $ terms)

3.4%

France (CAC 40) 0.6%

Germany (DAX) Japan (Nikkei 225) China (SSEA) -2.4%

Jun-15

-4.3%

-4.0%

Jul-15

Aug-15

-2.5%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) US (NAScomp)

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

S Korea (KOSPI) Pakistan (KSE)

ÂŒ´¼q— 3.06b – £§Â†m´Âƒ´¼§Â‰Â™ÂşÂ›²£Â„¯‰—m´Â‰ÂŒ´Â—Âś SET 5 MAI, ! Ç $ #1 n 6 1Ç 1, 9!15# 1 /

US (S&P 500) US (DJIA) Australia (All Ord.)

0.0

UK (FTSE 100)

-20.0

Malaysia (KLSE)

-40.0

HK (Hang Seng)

-60.0

India (BSE)

-80.0

Thailand (SET)

-100.0

Taiwan (TWI)

-120.0

Indonesia (JSX)-

-140.0 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15

Source: SET, The Economist

J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

Singapore (STI) -

This section is sponsored by

Ă…Ž¨°°Â„Â…°ÂŠĂ Š¡ÂœÂšÂťÂœ

´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Ă…Â›Â–ÂłÂŒÂ›¡Â›ÂłÂœÂŠ´ÂƒÂŹÂśĂ‹Â›Â?d 2014 36.3% 14.5% 13.9% 13.7% 12.7% 11.2%

m + 5 Æ81 5 ? !C1 75!m/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.I C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 + 8 1? !C1 75!m/+!98& SET ? + / /8 C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ ! !C1 75!m/+!98&/Æ6 ' !.I? E5m 1! ! Ç $61 Ç m$ 1 F16m 5 1/# n 1Æ

8.0% 4.9% 3.3% 1.5% -0.1% -2.7%

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

F1 19.8. !C1 SET +! 5 5 2.5% /$ 0m5 m + 75 m? 1/ 1 $ C m+ 5 m 5 C$ 1 8 m!1m! 5 7 #1F1 +(,m m F70$ !C1 SET 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ?

-3.5% -4.4% -4.7% -6.3% -7.8% -9.9%

12.3%

14.1% Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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53

54

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ 2

´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ · · ·

5 1F1 + 0 2

5 16

1.3%

1.0%

-0.2%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.0%-1.0%

-0.8%

-1.6% -1.9% -2.5%

-3.8% -4.2%

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

2014

5 + 0 2 0 Æ / 8 m! 9

5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1 F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8+!, 5

5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Æ81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 1 70 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5 C +& 6 5 1F1 + 0 2 5 5 16 0 Æ / 8 Å1+# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + /

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-1.9% -2.1%

-2.2%-2.3%

-3.4% -3.8%

12FY

13FY

/! Ç 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?

5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 m +?

5 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 0 $ 0 m? 1Ç 8$ 0 m F1 2009 0 m +?

5 6 / Æ6 0 Æ / 8 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 6$ 1 2012 0 m + ?

5 + 0 26 0 m 0 Æ / 8 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 5 F1+ 10 0 9 8 2009 /$ 1!1Ç / Æ?

50 mm $ m +?

5 + 0 2 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 9 0Æ ? 1Ç F1 2014

14FY Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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56

»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨¤µ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ªnµ ¦ ° ¸ 2015 ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ 9!15# 1 / 2,075

¥´¤¥³ 1,241

º§ ¥²£´

-36

1,390

1,751 1,455

1,498

-174

-100

2,076

-267

-295

-2,424

-2,371

1,902

1,484

110 -75

-27

-364

-1,277

2,158

-414

-1,280 -1,629

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-1,930 -2,489

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

¾ŽÂ„Ž¤ºÂœĂ‰ ¨oÂľÂœ Ă„Âœ 10 à —º°Âœ

–º§Â‰ÂœÂ?¼²£´Â•²£¼´¤Ă‚–š¯Â› 50

5 + 0 2

0

5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m + 8 $ 8+!, 5 C +& ? 0 6 5 + 0 2 6 60+ 8 1? 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#

2014 -50

-100

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-150

5 + 0 2?

50 mm $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 m $ 7m70 Æ15# 1 F1 10 1 +m? 2015

-200

2015 -250

-300

-350 J

F M A M J

J A S O N D Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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57

»¨ ¦³¤µ ¨³ »¨Á · ­ µ »¨¡°Ç ´ Ä nª 9 Á

´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ¬ 9!15# 1 / º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 88

-27

-36 -45 -75

-95

-100 -96 -144 -174

-266

-364 -401

-414

-4

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

à —º°ÂœĂ‚Œ„

5 + 0 2 5 5 16

5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8 +!, 5 5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Æ81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 170 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-223

-242

-264

-267 -295 -305

/! Ç 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?

5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 0 5 $ m +?

5 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m 8m #1 9 8 2010 6' 7+! F1 Æ1 5 16 m! 5 + 0 20!m 0$ $ m!10 m1!m F1 2012 0 m +?

5F1+ ! 16 6 Ă…1 + ! m +2& 6' 7+! F1 10 1 +m? 2015 5 16 ?

50 mm $ 5 + 0 2 8 $m $ 6 Æ70 Æ15# 1 /

466

Y

13FY

14FY

'15/10mo Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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58

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ° Å

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È % $ 9 , 70 86' 7+! 2015

-0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.8 -4.0 -4.2 -5.1 -6.0 -6.8

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

¼¼´ÂŠÂ™º°ªn¾Å¤n­ŸÂŠ

0.3 0.0

South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Thailand Euro Area Australia US China Russia

5 + 0 2+!, 5 $ IF1E5m + 8 / 8 5 + 0 2o +!,? + / / Æ6' !. ? E5m ! F1+ +# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + / mm + m +2&? ; # ?# +$ 0 E E1 0 6 &E955&

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+!, 56$ 1F7.$F1E5mn m m +2& $ ?

5 + 0 2F1 2015 8m #1 9 8 m 75 F # 5 $ m ?1 ? m +?

5) 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 0 0 m/ Æ6 F1. Æ $ 1 5 0 Æ / 8 m! + / Æ1I m + ?

5 + 0 2? /8/ Æ 2% ? 9 8! n $ 0$ 6

India Malaysia Vietnam Pakistan Brazil Japan

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59

ÂŽÂœ¸ĂŠ ­¾Â›¾ŒÂ–³à ¥¡¤Ă‰ ­ŸÂŠÂ…šĂŠ ÂœĂ„ÂœÂž¸ 2015 ÂŒ´¼q— 4.5a – ­Â›¡Ă‹´Âš´¼Â•²

ÂŒ´¼q— 4.5b –

5# 15# 1 /

6! 6$ 1 $ 9

6.0

5.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

4.0

3.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

2.0

Direct Government debt

1.0

0.0

2011 8%

2012 8%

2013 7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2014 7%

Sep-15 6%

2011

External debt as percent of total

2012

­Â›¡Ă‹´Âš´¼Â•²

2

50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

35% 30% 25% 20% 15%

Direct Government debt

10%

71 6Ç - +2 71 6Ç - +2 + m # 8 71 /Ç Æ+ !, 5m #E 8 + 71 /Ç Æ +!, 5m # 9 Æ C C8 0 6 87 8F7# m$m / 1 9 Æ m + : Ç 1: ) 71 Ç 1m #5$ 71# 9 Æ +! E + 6+# 71 Ç 71 Ç 6 - +2 m+!, 6 7m 5 71 Ç Æ1I C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ç - +2 0 + o/71 Ç 0 ' 1 1 1 C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ç - +2 0 + o/71 Ç Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

71 6Ç - +2 9 0Æ 6 ? 1Ç 5Gm1# 8F1 1/ Ç ! Ç F1+ ! 1 (5.8 5# 15# 1 /) 5 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 (43%) 6 7 75!m m71 +Ç !, 5m #E 8 + E 871 6Ç - +2 6$ 1F7.$ Å171 FÇ 1 + / (6m 5 1 /)

5% 0%

2013

2014

Sep-15

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60

ÂŽÂœ¸ĂŠ ­¾Â›¾ŒÂ–³…°ÂŠĂ…š¼Å¤n™°º ÂŞn¾°¼ŸnĂ„ÂœÂŚÂłÂ—´Â?š¸­Ă‰ ÂźÂŠà ¤º°Ă‰ à š¸¼Â?„´Â? ÂŒ´¼q— 4.6 – ­Â›¡Ă‹´Âš´¼Â•²Ă…݀§Âƒ 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 , 2014 ( + 0 2m +2&) 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 4 Lebanon 5 Italy 6 Jamaica 7 Portugal 8 Cyprus 9 Ireland 10 Grenada 11 Singapore 12 Belgium 13 Eritrea 14 Barbados 15 Spain 16 France 17 Iceland 18 Egypt 19 Puerto rico 20 Canada 21 Bhutan 22 Jordan 23 Antigua and barbuda 24 UK 25 Cabo verde Source: CIA fact book

228 181 175 142 134 132 131 119 119 110 107 102 101 101 98 96 94 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 86

39 United 40 C 43 48 Ur 50 Pa 56 63 Ma 67 71 Th 72 Philip 7 80 Vie 93 M 96 Sw 101 Arg 103 South 105 Hong 108 T 126 129 N 133 Indo 137 147 149 N 164 Saudi

Â?¤¾Â˜ÂŚÂ“ÂľÂœÂœÂľÂœÂľÂ?ÂľÂ˜¡

states Croatia 3 Israel ruguay akistan 6 Brazil alaysia 7 India hailand ppines 8 Laos etnam Mexico weden entina Korea g kong Turkey Nepal orway onesia 7 China Russia Nigeria arabia

71 70 67 65 64 59 54 51 49 48 46 46 41 40 38 37 37 37 30 30 24 22 13 12 2

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

71 6Ç - +2 F1E5m 71 6Ç - +2 Å16! 6$ 1 $ 9 F1 + / $ I + 0 2 m +2&E 8 Central Intelligence Agency ? 67+!,)

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ / 9!41 5# 0 6! 6$ 171 6Ç - +2 $ 9 6 71 Ç 6 - +2 ? /8 0 ! 5? m CIA 8 $/Æ 49% ? 9 F1 2014 DÆ 0$n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ6 0 Æ / 8 m! 0 +, 11 1 C . Æ $ 10 6! 6$ 171 6Ç - +2 $ 9 6 / Æ6 / Æ 228% E 8 + / 6$ 1F7.$/Æ+ ! 71 6Ç - +2 6 0!m 8 $F18 E+

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62

­¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°

Growth

• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q­§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´­ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²­©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 201

Stability

• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å­ m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ ­§¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.

´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º

¥² ´ ­ º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶

¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´­¥³ d 2016

m¯ ­ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´

¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn­ ·Ë¬·¤

¥ ¯ d 2015 ­ ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m

§ ´¥ n´ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯

- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0

' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0

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»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Ä 10 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2015 Á · »¨ µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F. 29.8

´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ 9!15# 1 55 +& 10FY

1

31.3

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥

7.4

5.3

+

-19.7

1.2 10FY

-1.2

´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤

-5.0 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/10mo

21.3

10FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

1

1

¾„„¾Œà „¡ÂœÂ—¨Â„¾ŒÂ‡oÂľ

O.B) 29.2 24.6

17.0 6.7

6.7

E + 6+# 5m +CĂ‹ + 1

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/10mo

¼´¤Ă†Â–nº™šœ -3.1 -8.1

-8.2

-11.8

-9.2

5m +CË + 1 70 8n ;56+ ? m +/' - +m++0 / +(,m + 7 $ ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / m! ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 $ + / F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Æ + m # 8 5m + # 5 + m + 5 + 8 # 5 !.C 1/ 1 5 0 5 5 Æ 16 /-

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

5m +CĂ‹ + 1F1 10 1 +m? 2015 m 1 5 mm + m 1 5m + #

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/10mo

¤Â™ÂşÂ›Ăƒ§²Â†Š´£Â†§´Â–†§šĂŠÂŻÂ›ÂŹÂşÂ™ÂšÂś

6.8

0.1

-7.7

11FY

12FY

13FY

-16.6

-18.7

14FY

15/10mo

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¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ­³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2015 GDP*

Singapore Ͳ Q3

21.2%

Taiwan Ͳ Q3

12.8%

South Korea Ͳ Sep

8.0%

Russia Ͳ Q3

5.5%

Philippines Ͳ Jun

4.1%

China Ͳ Q3

3.1%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

2.8%

Euro Area Ͳ Sep

2.8%

Japan Ͳ Sep

2.7%

Vietnam Ͳ 2014

2.7%

Malaysia Ͳ Q3

2.5%

Thailand Ͳ Q2

2.4%

Pakistan Ͳ Q3

-0.7%

India Ͳ Q2

-1.1%

Indonesia Ͳ Q3

-2.5%

US Ͳ Q2

-2.5%

Australia Ͳ Q2

-3.8%

Brazil Ͳ Oct

-3.8%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-429.0

‹¸ —¸¥­¸ nÂŞÂœĂ„ÂŽÂ?nĂ ÂžĂˆ ÂœĂ ÂŤÂŚÂŹÂ“Â„¡Â‹

Last 12 months, USD Billion 68.6

5 !.C 16 9!

77.2

5 !.C 16 9! (Current Account) ;5+ 0 6 /- ? 5m + # 5 + m + + 8 # ,0o 0 5 + 8 #/ 8o 0 C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + m +2&

5 !.C 16 9! F1+ +# 85 ? 9 E 8 E E1 0 6 &E955& C +& # 1? 6 n 5 !.C 16 9!

F1 12 15$ 6 ? $5 + / F1+ 16m 5

55 +&

107.9 64.3 11.7 279.0 7.4 348.8 121.9 9.1 7.8 24.4 -1.1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

+ / / Æ0 5 !.C 16 9! m 1 50 mI 0 Æ / 8 m! 9 6$ 1F7.$ Å1 +(,m m F70$F1 C 8 + / +' Æ + 8F1 !1 m C$ 167+!,)0 , 1 F1+ +(,m E5m Å1; #D Ç 6 /-

-25.9 -18.4

-47.4 -74.2 Š ChartingTHAILAND™ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.

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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2015 ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

69.0

74.4

76.1

75.3

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

100.6

104.3

10YE

11YE

130.

12YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 6! 6$ 1 $ 9

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

12YE

71 Ç $ + /

7

139.9

140.7

136.6

E

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

71 Ç $ + / 70 8n 8

# 71 6Ç 16$ 1/ Æ 0$FC$ / 1 + 17 #1 / Æ; #0 n1 Æ , 1F1 + / m$ ? 1Ç m! ; #0 n1 Æ , 1 F1 $ + / /! Ç 71 6Ç 1/ Æ0 m 8Ç 7+ 0$0 m 8Ç E 80 o + ; m9!1/ Æ # CË + 1 1 #1 E 8+ 0 71 6Ç 1/ m6m 5 1 5 / m + o/? m +m #8 0 + + 0 E 8- /. 5 m ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 C +& 6 F1+ 6m 5 1 55 +& C +& 6 F1+ +# 85 ? 9

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

71 Ç $ + / 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m75! 2009 $ + 0Æ 5 5 F1 1 Ç

%

38.2%

E

13YE

34.5%

33.2%

14YE

15/2Q

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66

à ¦ ­¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ ¸ ¹Ê à ¥¤ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ­ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ­ ·Ë

´¥q 5.11b – ­

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / /! Ç 70

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + /

o mC1 o +!,

16%

84%

11YE

71 +Ç 8 8 71 +Ç 8 6!1Ç

20%

80%

12YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

18%

82%

13YE

18%

82%

14YE

17% 45%

44%

55%

56%

11YE

12Y

83%

15/2Q

¤¸­Â—´ ­nÂŞÂœÂŽÂœ¸ĂŠ Œ³¼³¼¾ª

­Â›¡Ă‹Â—m´Â‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ª—´£¼²¤²Ă‚Š§´­Â›¡Ă‹

/ /! Ç 70

%

6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + /

43%

40%

40%

6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / $ 0 - $ C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / 05!m(2 ? 5 m71 Ç C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ç $ + / 0 5!m(2 ? + 8 5 1 1E 8+ 8 8 70 8n 0 mm $ 1 + 8 6!1Ç 70 8n 1# 8m $ 1

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

E + 6+# 71 Ç $ + / ? /8 5 Æ81 5 ?1 Ç E 80 6! 6$ 171 +Ç 8 8 9 0Æ ? 1Ç

%

57%

60%

60%

YE

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

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67

¤¸ µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ Ä Å ¦¤µ­ ¸­É

´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²­©m´ ¥²Â ª

´¥q 5.12b – ¯³

6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / + 8 6!1Ç

370% 340% 312% 279%

277%

293%

4.7% 3.4%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

15/2Q

10FY

11FY

­°ÂŠ

—¼´mŠÂ›Âƒ´¼ÂŒĂ?´¼²­Â›¡Ă‹Â—Â?™.—mÂŻÂƒ´¼mÂ‰ÂŻÂŻÂƒ

8.1%

06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + /

0 00 / Æ6 /# 1 06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / C +& 6 + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ç 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ç C +& 6 ! + 6$ 1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / $ m +6$ m

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

! + 6$ 1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / $ m +6$ m 9 0Æ ? 1Ç 8$ 0 m m 4.7%F1 +0 6 +m Å1 8.1% F1 +0 6/ Æ6 8$ +mG + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ç 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ç mG8! n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Æ 5 o!8 (293%) DÆ 9 6+ # $

06 0 +nF1m +CË + 71 Ç $ + / ? /88! 0$ 1$ Å1/ Æm! 5

4.7% 4.2%

12FY

4.0%

13FY

14FY

15/2Q

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68

à Š¡Âœ­ĂŽ¾Œ°ÂŠŒ³Žªn¾ŠžŒ³à š¼´ÂŠÂ‡ÂŠ¤¸à Ž¨º°à ¢º °Ă‚¤oÂŞn¾‹³¨Â—¨ Ă Â…o¾ÂšŒ„ÂŽŠ‡n¾à Š¡ÂœÂ?¾šÅ¤nĂ„ÂŽo°n°ÂœĂ…žœ´Â„ ÂŒ´¼q— 5.13a – ¼²Â–ÂłÂœĂ‚Â‰ÂśÂ›Â™ÂşÂ›ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â‰¼²­Šm´Â‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ª* 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)

73.9

2006

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

154.1

2009

191.7

206.4

205.8

2010

2011

2012

ÂŒ´¼q— 5.13b – ¼²Â–ÂłÂœĂ‚Â‰ÂśÂ›Â™ÂşÂ›ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â‰¼²­Šm´Â‰Â?¼²Ă‚™ª ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +nFC# CĂ‹ + $ m +1' ?# #** 13.8

12.6 10.8

9.1 6.9

2006

2007

9.9

7.9

2008

2009

2010

2011

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

2012

ÂŠĂ„ÂœÂž¸ Âœ¸ĂŠ ÂŽšĂ‰ÂŠ°¾Â‹¤¾Â‹ÂľÂ„„¾Œ

16' + + 7 $ + /

8

190.2

180.2

170.3

2

2013

2014

Oct-15

2

16' + + 7 $ + / 6 1/+!98& $ + / / Æ n + E 8-1 +m5 5 6 0 +n1' 0 FC# + E8C1&/!1/ /Æ ' Å1 C$ 1 9 Æ m +C C8m +?

5m +CË + 1 7+ FC# Å1 + Æ 0 71 Æ F1m + ' 1 1 1E8 8 ! + 5m 5 Æ81 1! + 00 5 $ ? Net forward position / Æ- /.0 o + ; m9!1F16!.. currency forward contracts C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F16m 5 1 55 +& 67+!,) C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +nFC# CË + $ m + 1' ?# # ( m 1 80F7#FC# CË + # m 16 0 1)

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

9.1

9.5

9.9

2013

2014

Oct-15

+ ! 16' + + 7 $ + / 9 0Æ ? 1Ç m 4 /$ ! Ç $ 2005 $5 5 0 mF1C$ / Æ;$ 10 ? DÆ 0 # $ n mFC# F1m + /+m D $ 1 / 0$F7# $ 15 1!m 8$ +mG 0 Æ ' 1 1 1/ Æ6 0 +n FC# CË + $ 6 1 # 1' ?# # mG9 $ 6 0 +nFC# CË + #n m 10 1DÆ n $ 6 m 1 0 ' Å1 0 m

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Ä Á º° ¡.¥. nµÁ · µ Â È nµ ¹Ê 1% Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ­ »¨ ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´

´¥q 5.17b –

2007 = 100

% / Æ 5 Æ81 5 m MYR Ͳ 8.5524 114.0

Baht appreciates MͲoͲM

MXN Ͳ 2.1688

112.0

AUD Ͳ 26.1664

110.0

EUR Ͳ 38.3219

108.0

IDR Ͳ 2.7517

1.0%

106.0

INR Ͳ 0.5703 SGD Ͳ 25.6424

104.0

YͲoͲY

Ͳ0.5%

Baht depreciates Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

102.0

PHP Ͳ 0.775

100.0 Nov-15

KRW Ͳ 0.0312

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

TWD Ͳ 1.1023

GBP Ͳ 54.3712 CNY Ͳ 5.6798 JPY Ͳ 29.5486 VND Ͳ 0.0016

USD Ͳ 36.0549 -8

Baht

¨à Š¡Âœ°ºĂ‰ÂœĂ‡ ƒ´¼Ă‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â›ĂƒÂ?§Â‰Â„¯‰¯³—¼´Ăƒ§ÂƒĂ‚Â?§¡ĂŠ¤Â› ! + 5m 5 Æ81

m /Æ 5# , 2 !1/ Æ 30/11/2015 15.7 10.4 7.8 7.4 4.3 -0.6 -0.8

C +& 6 !C1 $ 1 / (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) 6+# m $ >5 Æ8n$ 1' Ç 71!m? ! + 5m 5 Æ81+ 7 $ $ 1 / 5 $ 1 23 6m 5/ Æ6' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ ? /8 E 81' Ç 71!m / ÆFC# ? 1Ç 8 $m! 06' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ m + 9 0Æ ? 1Ç ? !C1 70 8n m + ?G $ ? 1Ç ? 1 / $ 10 ? C +& 6 m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 1 /Æ; 6m 5 1 $ I/ Æ6' !. 0 Æ / 8 m! 1 /E 8 ! m ! + 5m 5 Æ81 >5 Æ8/ Æ-1 +9 2 C8& 61 ? 8

m + 5 Æ81 5 5$ 6

-3.2

F1 19.8. $ 1 / ?G $ ? 1Ç 1% 0 Æ / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Æ1I 6' 7+! F1C$ 1 /Æ; $ 10 1 / $ 1

$ 5 0.5% 0 Æ / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Æ1IF1 m+# 1 / m +

-3.9 -4.2 -4.5 -5.0 -5.1 -6.3

8.6

t depreciates

Baht appreciates Š ChartingTHAILAND™

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ChartingTHAILAND™ CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILAND™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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