Charting Thailand’s Economy
MONTHLY
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ธันวาคม 2558 ISSN: 2286-6132
Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, December 2015 (Thai) Publication Date: December 2nd, 2015 Number of pages: 72
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ASK THE EDITOR ChartingASEAN™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any questions report, you can contact the chief editor directly at editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com.
DISCLAIMER The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please no findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information gather from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As su ChartingASEAN™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subseq incorrect.
es were made. you or your use.
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Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
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- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · Ã Ä °´ ¦µ ¸ É n° oµ ´ª¦µªÇ 3%
´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 7.5%
7.2%
7.3%
6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.2%
2.8% 1.7% 0.8%
0.9%
-0.7% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
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Last 5 Quarters
3.0%
! + m + E 9 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? 9 + / /8 8# 175! 10 5 ! + m + E + 8 F16 Æ +0 65$ 6 ( / 8 m! + 0 6 8 m!1? m$ 171# ) Å1m +6 /# 1n m + ?8 8 ! ? + +(,m F1 $5 C$ 5 F1 Å1 ! + m + E / Æ /# + DÆ #1' ;5? 1 :# m 5# ! 5? ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 2 m++0m + 9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 2.8% 2.9%
2.1% 1.0%
! + m + E 9 ? /8 ! + m + E / Æ /# + >5 Æ8 ! Ç $ 2003 n 2014 /$ m! 3.4% F1C$ 10 /Æ; $ 10 0 9 8 2009 8 / Æ ! + m + E 5 m + E F1 2010 5 2012 1! $ 6 0 m 5 6 /# 1n m +: Ç 1 ! ? +(,m / Æ0!m + 8mm!1 $ 0 5m! (2 70 1 ! (V) m mV D ! 6' 7+! 6 0 +0 6 9+0& 5 /mo!8 05' ! 75! 6 +(,m /8 E F1 ! + / Æ $ 1?# ! + I 3% $
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
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Œ¾¼‹n ¾¼‹¾„„¾Œšn°Šà š¸¼É ª¤¸ÂnÂŞÂœÂ?nÂŞÂĽÂ„ÂľÂŚĂ Â˜ÂˇÂ?ĂƒÂ˜Ă„ÂœĂ…Â˜ÂŚÂ¤ÂľÂ ÂŒÂ´ÂĽq— 1.08a – ÂƒÂ´ÂĽĂ‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠÂˇÂ–ÂˇÂ ÂˇÂ–n´›¼´¤Šm´¤ 3Q15
ÂŒÂ´ÂĽq— 1.08b –
% m + 5 Æ81 5 $
% m + 5 Æ81 5
X (services)
17.5
GDP
2.9
C
1.7
GDP X (services) M (goods)
G
1.0
C
M (services)
0.8
G
I (capital) X (goods) M (goods) I
-1.2 -1.9 -3.3 -4.0
M (services) I (capital) I (Inventory) X (goods) Discrpncy
Note: (*) C = m + + Eo mC1, I = m +5 / 1 $ Å1 I (capital) = m +6 60/ 1 5 I (inventory) = m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 6 1 # 75 G = m + + Eo o +!,, X = m +6$ m6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0+ 8 # mm +/$ / Æ8 ), M = m +1' ?# 6 1 # 5 + m + (+ 0 Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
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â€“ÂžÂ§ÂƒÂĽÂ˛Â™ÂœÂ—mÂŻÂƒÂ´ÂĽĂ‚Â—ÂśÂœĂ„Â—Â„ÂŻÂ‰ÂŠÂˇÂ–ÂˇÂ Âˇ 3Q15
$ ? 9 + 0/ Æ0 m+ 8 $ 8 $ I
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1.9
F1C +& 6 ! + m + E / Æ /# + ? + 8 $ 8 $ IDÆ n m1' 0 + m m!1 Å1 9 Å1m + ! m + 5 Æ81 5 0 Æ / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 +0 65$ 6 / 8 m! +0 6 8 m!1F1 m$ 1 F1C +& 6 n ;5 ? m + 5 Æ81 5 ? + 8 $ 8 $ I 0 Æ / 8 m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 C +& 1 Ç C FÇ 7# 7G1 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 871 Æ I0 ;5 $ m + 5 Æ81 5 E 8+ 0? 9 /$ + 6! m # $ ;5+ 0? ;5m + 5 Æ81 5 F1+ 8 $ 8 $ I # /$ m! m + 5 Æ81 5 ? 9 E 8+ 0 ! 5? 9 ! /' E 86' 1!m 1
2 m++0m +9!41 m + +(,m 5 6! 0 7$ C 5 ;8 9+$/ m +0 6
2.9 2.6
0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2 -2.3
0+ 8 $ 8m + / Æ8 /.) Copyright Š ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Ă&#x2020; + 8 $ 8 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 7+ 5 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; 0 ! 5? 5$ 6 F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 7G1 # $ + 8 $ 8m +/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 0 ! + m + E 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 C +& m + $ + 8 $ 8F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; 7G1 # $ m +/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6
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£µ ¦· µ¦¤¸nª nª¥ µ¦Á · à ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ Å ¦¤µ ¸É µ ¥´ nª µ¦Á · à à ¥¦ª¤ ´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 3Q15
´¥q 1.06b –
% m + 5 Æ81 5 $
% m + 5 Æ81 5
Hotel&Res
10.9
Construction
7.7
GDP Transport
Transport
7.1
Trading
Health&Social
6.8
Hotel&Res
6.5
Financial
Financial Other social
5.4
Utilities
4.8
Trading
3.9
Private HH
3.1
GDP
2.9
RealEstate
2.5
Manufacture RealEstate Construction Utilities Health&Social Other social PublicAdmin
Education
1.1
Education
PublicAdmin
1.0
Mining
Mining
0.9
Private HH
Manufacture
0.8
Fishing
Fishing Agriculture
-3.1 -5.8
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Agriculture Stat diff
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$ ? 9 + 0/ Ă&#x2020;0 mo $ I 2.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2
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! !8m+ 1# +(,m /8<!Ă&#x2020; m +;5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 7+ 5 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! ! 0!1 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; 0 ! 5?5$ 6 F1 +0 6 3 2015 7G1 # $ o E+ +0 5 +# 1 7 + 0 m + E 6 6 6$ 1o m( +0 ! + m + E 5 C +& m + $ o m +;5 F 0 6$ 1C$ 861! 61 1m + E ? 9 E 8+ 00 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 DĂ&#x2020; o + m +0 6$ 1C$ 8m + E ? 9 F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 6$ 1o m( +8! n$ m + E + 0
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Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
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m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
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- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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®¨´ µ µ¦Á ¨¸¥É ¸ µ Ä®¤n ´ ¸ ¨ ¨· £µ °» µ® Ä ¨o ¸ n° °¥nµ ¤µ ´¥q 1.10 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2011 = 100) 125.0
111.6
114.1 108.3
120.0
100.0 115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
2011
2012
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
2013
2014
J
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m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
2014
2015
F M A M J
J
F1+ 8 5 10 /Ă&#x2020;; $ 10 !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0 0 m + E / / m 8m #1 8 $ 9 8 2009 / Ă&#x2020; m mV D ! 9+0&F1+ +(,m E5m 2011 / Ă&#x2020; m mV /mo!8 F1 + / 5 5$ 6 F1 2013 m 7 m +2& 0 0$6 / m + 0 75! mm + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 , 1F70$ !C1 ;5;5 o 6 7m++0+ 8 1F1 1? Ă&#x2021; 8! ?# Fm5# m$ 1 8$ 0 m 8$ +mG 6' 7+! F1 1 . . !C1 ) +! 5 5 4.2% m m$ 1
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°Â&#x2DC;¾ŽÂ&#x201E;ŒŒ¤ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;ÂŽÂ?n¤¸Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â&#x2DC;¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Ă Â&#x2014;¸¼ªÂ&#x201E;´Â&#x153;Â&#x2026;° Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x17E;§Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤¯ºÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ
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% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , . . 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5
Furniture
27.0
Furniture
Petroleum
9.2
Leather
Electrical
8.3
Food & Bev
Vehicles
8.3
Paper
Paper
0.7
Transport Equip
Food & Bev
-0.4
Apparel
Leather
-1.6
Machineries
Transport Equip
-3.2
Vehicles
Precision instru
-3.6
Wood products
Machineries
-4.8
Textiles
Rubber&Plastic
-6.2
Chemical
Textiles
-6.7
Precision instru
Metal products
-7.7
Rubber&Plastic
Mineral
-9.1
Electrical
Chemical
-9.7
Basic Matals
Basic Matals
-11.9
Mineral
Electronic
-13.7
Tobacco
Tobacco
-13.8
Metal products
Apparel Office automate
-17.3 -25.4
Wood products -82.0 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Office automate Petroleum Electronic
Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x201E;n°Â&#x153;
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m 1m$ 1, . . 2015 9.4 7.2 6.5 5.9 3.7 3.0 2.9 0.7
!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1 8 m!1 m$ 171# C +& 6 ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ?
!C1 ;5;5 + 8 6 7m++0 / 8 m! ! 0!1 F1 1m$ 171#
0.5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0.3
F1 1 . . 6 7m++06$ 1F7.$0 ;5;5 5 5 mC$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 E 8 : +&1 +&0 m + ;5 9 0Ă&#x2020; 0 m? 1Ă&#x2021; 6 / Ă&#x2020;6
0.2 -2.9 -3.1 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -7.8 -7.9 -8.8 -10.3 -21.0
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°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¦´ ¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º° . ´¥q 1.12a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n Ï´§³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£
´¥q 1.12b –
% ? m' 5! m +;5 /! Ç 70
% ? m' 5! m +;5
70% 68% 66% 64%
Normal
62% 60% 58%
Seasonally adjusted
56% 54% 52% 50% May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Sep-15
Oct-15
Petroleum Electronic Electrical Leather Chemical Paper Rubber&Plastic Office automate Mineral Metal products Transport Equip Food & Bev Furniture Vehicles Precision instru Apparel Textiles Wood products Office automate Tobacco Basic Matals
. ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x2026;Â&#x152;nÂ&#x192;Ă?´§³Â&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤¯ºÂ&#x2014;Âą
/! Ă&#x2021; 70 , . . 2015 80% 78% 75% 73% 72% 68% 67% 64% 61% 60% 58% 55% 54%
! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 + 0? 6 7m++0 $ I ! /' E 86' 1!m 1 +(,m 6 7m++0 m+ /+ 6 7m++0 5 ;8 9+$+ 8 1 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 E 8+ 0 F1+ 8 5 7m 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 2 15$ 6 Ă&#x2026;1+ 8 6 7m++0 FC# , 1 2011
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
! + m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 +! 5 5 5Gm1# 8F1 1 . . E 8 E + 5 800 m +FC# m' 5! m +;5 6 / Ă&#x2020;6
6$ 1E57 ?!1Ă&#x2021; 0 5, 10 m +FC# 'Ă&#x2020; 6
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Â&#x;¨Â&#x;¨¡Â&#x2DC;°Â&#x2DC;¾ŽÂ&#x201E;ŒŒ¤Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x161;ÂĽÂ&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â?Ă&#x201A;¨³°¼ŸnĂ Â&#x201E;º°Â?ΫĂ&#x160;Â&#x160;Â&#x161;o¾¼à ¤ Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.13 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x17E;§Â&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;ÂŻÂşÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ % m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 5$ 6
Vietnam Ͳ Nov China Ͳ Oct Malaysia Ͳ Sep India Ͳ Sep Philippines Ͳ Sep Pakistan Ͳ Sep Euro Area Ͳ Sep South Korea Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Q2 Indonesia Ͳ Sep US Ͳ Oct
0
Hong Kong Ͳ Q2
-1.2
Japan Ͳ Oct
-1.4
Russia Ͳ Oct
-3.4
Thailand Ͳ Oct
-4.2
Singapore Ͳ Oct
-5.4
Taiwan Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist
-6.2 -10.8
¤º°Ă&#x2030; Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â?Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;°ºĂ&#x2030;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2021;
8.9 5.6 5.1 3.6 3.6 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7
!C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1E5m ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1F1 m$ 171# ? !C1 ;5;5 6 7m++0F1 + / $ I ?# 0 55$ 6 + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+ 8 5' ! 0 ! + m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1 + / $ I m0 m 1# 8 ;5;5 6 7m++0? /8 Ă&#x2026;171 Ă&#x2020; F1 + / / Ă&#x2020;7 ! F1 15$ 6
.3
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Recommended Video
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15
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Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
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m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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Ä Á º° . . µ¦ ¦·Ã£ £µ Á° ® ´ªÂ n¥ ´ °¥¼nÄ ¦³ ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.14a – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¯
´¥q 1.1
(2010 = 100)
% m + 5 Æ81
125.0
Se
120.0
2015 115.0
NonͲre 110.0
2014
Composite
105.0 100.0
NonͲdu 95.0
SemiͲdu
90.0 85.0
Du 80.0
J
F
M
A
Source: Bank of Thailand
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
ÂłÂ&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; ÂźÂ&#x160;Â&#x201E;ÂŞnÂľÂ?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Ă Â&#x2014;¸¼ªÂ&#x201E;´Â&#x153;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;
4b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼´¤Â&#x160;m´¤Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x153;ÂĽÂśĂ&#x201E;¢Â&#x2020;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160; Ă?´Â&#x2020;ÂłÂ?
!C1 m + + Eo mC1
1 5 m m$ 1, . . 2015
ervices
8.3
sident
2.2
Index
2.2
rables
1.4
rables
rables
-2.2
-7.2
Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 C /Ă&#x2021; / m + Eo + Eo ? o mC1 E 8
' 1 2 m 5 & + m 75!m # m$ !C1 m +FC# $ 8 6 1 # 0$ /1 ( + m # 8 !C1 # 5 m Nielsenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s FMCG + 0 2m +FC# C Ă&#x2021; 95 + o/ $ I 5 + 0 2 m +FC# ::# o
+! + 1) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ă&#x2021; m Ă&#x2020; /1 ( + m # 88
# 5 m6 Ă&#x2020; / + Ă&#x2020; 1 $ 7$0 5 + 0 2 m +1' ?# 6 Ă&#x2020; / + Ă&#x2020; 1 $ 7$0) !C1 m +FC# $ 86 1 ' Ă&#x2021; /1 ( + m # 8 8 ' 71$ 8+n81 &1 !Ă&#x2020; +n !m+8 181 & 5 +n81 & C 9 2 C8&) !C1 m +FC# $ 8o + m + ( + m # 8 o ( 0 5 $ 9 0Ă&#x2020; m5 $0E+ +0 5 o! + 5 8 ? 8 + m +o
01 0?16$ ) 5 !C1 m +FC# $ 8? 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 $ C ( + m # 8 ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 $ C ) ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2010 Ă&#x2026;1 , 1 0 m + ;8 9+$ Ă&#x2026;1+ 8 1 5 $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Ă&#x2020; +! V m 5 5#
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
F1 1 . . m + + Eo o mC17 ! $8! 8 $F1 + ! / Ă&#x2020;6 m $ C$ 8 m!1? /Ă&#x2020; 5# 6 1 # /1 5 m Ă&#x2020; /18! 0 8 ? 85 5
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µ¦¨ »  ´ µ ¢ºÊ ´ª n°Á º°É
´¥q 1.15a – ³ · ´¥§ º ¯
´¥q 1.15b
(2010 = 100)
% m + 5 Æ81
122.0
Domestic M (2010
121.0
2015 120.0
2014
Import (201
119.0
118.0
117.0
Domestic Sa
116.0
Constructio
115.0
C p
114.0
J
F
M
A
M
J
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand
J
A
S
O
N
D
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼´¤Â&#x160;m´¤Â&#x192;´¼§Â&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;ÂŹĂ?´Â&#x2020;ÂłÂ?
!C1 m +5 / 1o mC1
5 m m$ 1, . . 2015
Machinery sales* prices, Baht)
10.6
of Capital Goods 0 prices, Baht)
4.0
Composite Index
1.5
Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 C /Ă&#x2021; / m +5 / 1o mC1 !C1 + m # 8 5 & + m # m$ 9 1Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; #+! 1 . m$ 6+# /! Ă&#x2020; + / !C1 m + ' 71$ 8 !6 m$ 6+# F1 + / m + 1' ?# 6 1 # / 1 2 + / Ă&#x2020; 2553 + 0 2m + ' 71$ 8 + Ă&#x2020; !m+ 5 m+2&F1 + / 2 + / Ă&#x2020; 2553 5 !C1 m + ' 71$ 8+n81 & 9 Ă&#x2020; m +5 / 1F1 + / $5 & + m FC# ?# 0 5/ Ă&#x2020; +! V m 5 5 >5 Ă&#x2020;8 5 Ă&#x2020; 1/ Ă&#x2020; 3 1 8m #19 1Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020;+! 1 . m$ 6+# DĂ&#x2020; >5 Ă&#x2020;8 5 Ă&#x2020; 1/ Ă&#x2020; 9 1 ! /' E 8-1 + 7$ + / /8 E 8FC# 2553 Ă&#x2026;1 , 1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
c Commercial Car ales Index
-2.8
on Material Sales -4.1 Index
6' 7+! F1 1m Ă&#x2021; +5 / 1 6 6!.. 2: Ă&#x2021; 1 ! $ 1 Ă&#x2020; E 8
!C1 m + ' 71$ 8 + Ă&#x2020; !m+F1 + / 0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 $+n81 & 9 Ă&#x2020; m +9 2 C8&DĂ&#x2020; $ 1?# m Ă&#x2020;8 1 Ă&#x2020; m! - +m ?1 5Gm 8! 7 !
onstruction Area -6.2 permitted (sqm)
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µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °
´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª 5# 1 55 +&67+!,)
´¥§ º 7,000
15,936 6,000
14,747 12,899
5,000
4,000
8,562 3,000
6,411 2,000
3,720 1,000
2,474
0
08FY
09FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
°Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸
m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + /
Â&#x203A;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2013;¤Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;´Â&#x192;Â&#x2014;Â?Â&#x2122;.²£¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A;
m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / (Foreign Direct Investment : FDI) Ă&#x2026;1- +m++0m +5 / 1/ Ă&#x2020;; #5 / 1/ Ă&#x2020; 0 n1 Ă&#x2020; , 1 m $ + / 0 $ - +m / Ă&#x2020;0 n1 Ă&#x2020; , 1F1 + / + m # 8 15 / 1F1/ 1 + 17 #1 (Equity capital) DĂ&#x2020; 70 8n m +5 / 1 # 8m +n 7 #1/ Ă&#x2020;0 6 /- Ă&#x160; +$ 0F1m + + 7 +m m + ! Ă&#x2021; $+# 85 10 ? 1Ă&#x2021; m + m #8 0+ 7 $ + (!/F1 + 5 m' +/ Ă&#x2020;1' m5! 0 5 / 1 ! /' E 8- /. C +& D# 8 6 0 5 $ m +5 / 1 E 8 + m /.+ 8 C +& ? 6 0 5 $ 6 60 + 8 1F1 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#
2015
2014
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +5 / 1E 8 + m /. 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 0 mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 1 0 ?
J
F M A M
J
J
A
S O N D Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » à ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ · · ø °Å°¨ ¨ ° ¸ ¸Ê
´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ 9!15# 1 /
1,023
648 525 396 236
10FY
11FY
12FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
13FY
14FY
°¼nÂľÂ&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Â&#x161;¸Â&#x;Ă&#x2030; nÂľÂ&#x153;¤¾
Â&#x153;ÂŹÂśÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161;œ œĂ&#x201A;ÂŞÂŤÂ&#x153;¡Ă&#x201E;ÂŻĂ&#x2020;ÂŻ 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1E 8 + m /.6 /- /Ă&#x2020; 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 ( E m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / / Ă&#x2020;6 /# 1F16n m + 60! + ?# +! 6 /- 9 (6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 m
2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m +5 / 1 0 1 8 0 $ Ă&#x2026;1 E + m +/ Ă&#x2020;0 ; #n 7 #1 Ă&#x2026;1C $ + / 0$1# 8m $ 10% ? / 1 / 81
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0 5 $ m +5 / 1E 8 + m /./ Ă&#x2020;? +! 6 /- E 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? 1 Ă&#x2021; E 8F1 8 1 +m0 0 5 $ 9 8 50 9!15# 1 / /$ 1!1Ă&#x2021;
288
50
2014/8M
2015/8M
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Â?¸Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2030; Âťn Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤÂ&#x161;¸¤Ă&#x2030; ¾¨Â&#x160;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x2DC;ÂŚÂ&#x160;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x161;¼¤¾Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; ÂťÂ&#x2014;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2DC;nÂŚ °¼nÂľÂ&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.16 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; £§Â&#x2020;m´Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2020;ÂĽÂ&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼§Â&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2013;¤Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;´Â&#x192;Â&#x2014;Â?Â&#x2122;.Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;ÂŹÂŁÂłÂ&#x2020;ÂĽĂ&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´¼³Â&#x153;ÂŹÂśÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161; 6! 6$ 1 m0 5 $ 5 / 1/! Ă&#x2021; 70
11%
Others
27%
4% 10%
USA ANIEs ASEAN Europe
2% 7% 8%
7% 10%
21%
25
2% 6% 10%
13
7%
7%
7%
10
17 58%
Japan
49%
54%
29
11FY
12FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
13FY
14F
Œ³¼³Ž¨´Â&#x160;´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;¨Â&#x2014;Â&#x153;o°¼¨Â&#x160;
Â&#x161;œ œĂ&#x201A;ÂŞÂŤÂ&#x153;¡Ă&#x201E;ÂŻĂ&#x2020;ÂŻ
5%
6! 6$ 1m +5 / 1E 8 + m $ + / 8m + 8 + / 19%
13%
3%
%
13%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0%
7%
6! 6$ 1? 0 5 $ E + m +5 / 1 m $ + / / Ă&#x2020;n m 61 ? +! 6 /- 9 ( m 2 m++0m +6$ 6+ 0m + 5 / 1 $ 0+ 8 + / / Ă&#x2020;0 8$ +mG ! 5?/ Ă&#x2020; 6 1!1Ă&#x2021; 0 m +1! DĂ&#x2039;Ă&#x2021; F1E + m +/ Ă&#x2020;0 ; #n 7 #1 $ C m 171 Ă&#x2020; 6!.C
30%
. Ă&#x2020; $ 1 Ă&#x2026;1 + / / Ă&#x2020;0 5 / 1E 8 + F1 /80 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 $ + 8 75! 6! 6$ 15 1# 85 8$ 0 m
5%
9%
FY
20%
2015/8M
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Â&#x2021;°Â&#x153;Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;¤¸à Â&#x153;¸¼¤à Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x153;¸°Â´Â&#x160;Ž¾Œ¡¤Â&#x161;Œ´¥¼rÂ&#x2DC;ª´ Ă Â&#x2014;¸¼ªÂ&#x161;¸¤Ă&#x2030; ¸Â&#x201E;¾Œà Â&#x2DC;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.16a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¯³Â&#x2030;´¼œ£Â&#x2122;¼³ ¤q
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.16b
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 9 1 +m? 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81
Condo unit registered
Value of land transaction
28.4
-6.2
New housing unit
-8.8
Constr. Area in municipal
-9.1
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-47.0
Â&#x2DC;¡Â?Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Â&#x161;¸Â&#x;Ă&#x2030; nÂľÂ&#x153;¤¾Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¯³Â&#x2030;´¼œ£Â&#x2122;¼³ ¤q
5 m 1m$ 1, m.8. 2015
!C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !. -27.5
-0.8
! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.F1C$ #1 n 1 ! !1 / 8 m! + 8 $ 8 8 m!1F1C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# ! 5?F1C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.F1C$ 15$ 6 / 8 m! 1m$ 171#
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
1E 0 1 80 Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 6! 7 + 0/+!98& ! 8 / Ă&#x2020;0 m + E F1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? 2015
-5.1
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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»¨ µ¦ oµ ¸ ¹Ê µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ εÁ oµ ¸É¨ ¨ ¤µ ªnµ
´¥q 5.03a – º§ ´¥ n´Å m´Â ¶ ´
´¥q 5.03b
10 1 +m, 9!15# 1 /
10 1 +m, 9!1 250
7,000 6,000
200 5,000 150
4,000 3,000
2014 2015 -1.5%
-7.8%
100
-5.3
2,000 50 1,000 0
0 -1,000
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
-50
Expo
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂnÂ&#x160;°°Â&#x201E;
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;º§Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2020;n´Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2020;m´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2013;¯§§´¼qÂŹÂÂĽÂłÂ&#x2019;Âą
15# 1 55 +&67+!,)
5m + #
3%
ort
Ă&#x2026;1?# 0 5m + # + 7 $ + / / Ă&#x2020; #+! mm+0 5m m+ m+ /+ m + 5! ! /' F1+ 6n /Ă&#x2020; 6 n - +m++0m + 5 Ă&#x2020; 18# 86 1 # m ? +(,m ? + C 2 !m+ /8 1 m + C 2 !m+ 7+ 5 Ă&#x2020; 18# 86 1 # m1 m + C 2 !m+ ?# 0 F1+ C 2 !m+ /8 F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Ă&#x2020; E 8 + 5 06 1 # / m+ 8m +
5m + # F1+ 1 Ă&#x2021; 0$ /$ m! F1+ / Ă&#x2020; 6 F1C +& ?
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 1 Ă&#x2020; m0 - ' 1 2/ Ă&#x2020; $ m!1F1 + 8m + C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? 5m + # # m$m +1' 0 5 $ m +6$ m6 1 # 5 # 80 5 $ m +1' ?# 6 1 #
-11.3%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
5m + # ?1 Ă&#x2021; 6 7 75!m mm +1' ?# / Ă&#x2020;5 5 0 mm $ m +6$ m
â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
Import
=
Trade balance
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µ¦n °° ¸ É ¦³Á ºÊ ° ¹Ê ´Ê µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ nµÁ · µ
´¥q 5.04a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ Å m´Â ¶ ´
´¥q 5.04b
9!15# 1 /
9!15# 1 55 +&6
675
21
2015 650
20
625 19 600 18
2014 575
17 550
16
525
500
15
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
J
F
Â&#x161;Â&#x161;¸°Ă&#x2030; n°Â&#x153;Â&#x2DC;´ª¨Â&#x160;
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2020;m´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2013;¯§§´¼qÂŹÂÂĽÂłÂ&#x2019;Âą
67+!,)
m +6$ m $ 0m5 $06 1 # -1 + 7$ + / /81' :# 0?# 0 5/ Ă&#x2020; + 0 5E 8 m+0 5m m+0 ! /' Ă&#x2026;1 + 6 1 # m ' 1m 0o +(,m m1!1Ă&#x2021; ! Ă&#x2026;1m5 $0 0 m m++0m +;5 5 +! ?# 0 5F7# Ă&#x2026;1 01 8 0 5 - m + ! /' 5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 C +& 6 m +6$ m + 8 1 / 8 m! m$ 171#
2014
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +6$ m/ Ă&#x2020; +! ! ?1 Ă&#x2021; 1!1Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2026;1 >9 F1+ 1 / /$ 1!1Ă&#x2021; 6$ 1F1+ 1 55 +&m +6$ m8! ' Ă&#x2020; m $ C$ m$ 1E 8 5
2015
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; 10 Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂnÂ&#x160;°°Â&#x201E;¼´Â&#x160;Â&#x2021;Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x2DC;¡Â?Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;Â&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â? Ă&#x192;Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x17E;¡ Ă&#x192;Â&#x2DC;ÂŚ ¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2021;o¾à Â&#x201E;ÂŹÂ&#x2DC;ÂŚĂ Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Â&#x2DC;´ªÂ&#x152;Âť Â&#x2014;Ž¨´Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.05a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;Â&#x2014;´£Â&#x192;§ºmÂŁÂŹÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.05b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 10 1 +m? 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5
Total export Optical instru Other export Automotive Jewellery Machinery Electrical Electronics Other manufacturing Photo instru Metal Agro products Forestry Toiletries Apparels Agriculture Footware PetroͲchemical Furniture ReͲexports Fishery Aircrafts Chemicals Petroleum Mining
-1.5 37.1 34.8 6.5 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.0 -0.7 -1.9 -2.2 -3.2 -4.4 -6.4 -7.9 -8.0 -8.7 -13.8 -15.6 -16.5 -23.9 -24.1 -46.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Total export Automotive Other export Optical instru Machinery Electronics Jewellery Electrical Other manufacturing Photo instru Forestry ReͲexports Footware Metal Toiletries Furniture Fishery Apparels Aircrafts Mining Agro products PetroͲchemical Agriculture Chemicals Petroleum
Œà ¨¸¼¤Ă&#x201A;¨³à Â&#x2021;¤¸Œª¤Â&#x161;´Ă&#x160;Â&#x160; Â&#x17E;§Â&#x192;¼²Â&#x2122;Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;
$ ? m +6$ m+ 0/ Ă&#x2020;0 m6 1 # $ I -1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? m +6$ mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 1 0 ? C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ 1 /? m +6$ mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 171# C +& # 1? 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E ? m +6$ mE 8+ 0 / Ă&#x2020;0 mm +6$ m 0m5 $06 1 # $ I
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +6$ m: Ă&#x2021; 1 ! F1 1m.8. $/ ! Ă&#x2021; 9 1 +m 8! E 5 E 8 E + 5 80 5 0 + 0/! Ă&#x2021; 6 1 # m( + Ă&#x2026;1 ! > 75!m
-0.9 -1.2 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂnÂ&#x160;°°Â&#x201E;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;ÂŚÂźÂ&#x17E;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â?ÂľÂ&#x161;ÂŽÂ&#x2014;Â&#x2DC;´ªĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x201E;º°Â?Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2DC;¨¾Â&#x2014;ÂĽÂ&#x201E;Ă ÂŞoÂ&#x153;Â&#x153;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.07a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;Â&#x2014;´£Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ?§´¤Â&#x2122;´Â&#x2030;
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5
6! 6$ 1 $ m +6$ m+ 0F1+ 1 /
% m + 5 áŞ&#x203A; 7.3 (Trillion)
áŞ&#x203A; 6.1
áŞ&#x203A; 6.7
áŞ&#x203A; 7.1
áŞ&#x203A; 6.9
Rest of the world
18.1
17.4
18.1
16.7
Middle East
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
5.2
Japan
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
9.6
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
10.3
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
12.0
East Asia exͲJapan
20.4
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.3
ASEAN
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
26.1
100% =
EU NAFTA
16.5
Rest of
East Asi
M 10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
14FY
Â&#x153;¾¢Â&#x2DC;oÂľ
5.07b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;
5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 10 1 +m? 2015 NAFTA
8.7%
f the world
-0.6%
a ex Japan
-2.2%
EU
-2.8%
ASEAN
-3.2%
Japan
-4.1%
Middle East
5 8/ m +6$ m C +& 6 0 5 $ m +6$ m (F1+ 1 /) $ 6! 6$ 1 0 + / 5 8/ C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? m +6$ m6 $ $5 5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +6$ mF1+ 1 /7 ! F1 m / m 5 8m #1 1 : #
-8.8%
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Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x153;Ă&#x17D;¾à Â&#x2026;o¾¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160; 7.8% Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; 10 Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160; 2015 Â¾à ¥¨´Â&#x160;Â&#x160;ÂľÂ&#x153;Â&#x161;¸¨Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;¤¾Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.09a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x203A;Ă?´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´Â&#x2014;´£Â&#x192;§ºmÂŁÂŹÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.09b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 10 1 +m? 2015
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $
Total import
Total imp
-7.8
Consumer goods
5.5
Capital goods
0.3
Consumer goo
Capital goo
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-1.3
Oth
Others
-1.4
Intermediate Ͳ Non f
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
-35.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Intermediate Ͳ F
Ă ÂŽÂ&#x2DC;Ž¨´Â&#x201E;¤¾Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x153;Ă&#x17D;¾à Â&#x2026;oÂľ
Â&#x17E;§Â&#x192;¼²Â&#x2122;Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x203A;Ă?´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´
? m +1' ?# + 0/ Ă&#x2020;0 m6 1 # $ I
ort
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? m +1' ?# F1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ?
-7.8
ods
0.5
ods
0.1
ers
-0.1
uel
-0.5
uel
C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1? 0 5 $ m +1' ?# F1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 71# C +& 6 6$ 1 + m ? m + E E 8+ 0 / Ă&#x2020;0 ;50 mm + E F1m5 $06 1 # $ I
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
m +1' ?# 5 5 7.8% F1 10 1 +m? 2015 6 7 75!m0 mm +1' ?# 95! 1/ Ă&#x2020;5 5 0 m
-7.7
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´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x153;Ă&#x17D;¾à Â&#x2026;oÂľÂ&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¨n¤à ¥¡¤Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153; Ă Â&#x153;º°Ă&#x2030; Â&#x160;¤¾Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾Œ¨Â&#x2014; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂŹÂłÂ&#x2013;ÂŹmŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x203A;Ă?´Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´ 6! 6$ 1 $ m +1' ?# + 0F1+ 1 / ŃŽ 5.9
ŃŽ 7.0
ŃŽ 7.8
ŃŽ 7.7
Others
10.2
12.4
11.4
12.2
Capital goods
20.9
21.3
24.4
23.3
Intermediate â&#x20AC;&#x201C; NonͲFuel
44.0
40.0
37.5
35.7
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
17.4
18.9
18.9
20.8
Consumer goods
7.5
7.5
7.8
8.0
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;¥¨´Â&#x160;Â&#x160;ÂľÂ&#x153;
ŃŽ 7.4
ŃŽ 5.7
8.1
8.4
24.2
(Trillion)
26.1
6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# 0 5 $ m +1' ?# (F1+ 1 /) $ 06! 6$ 1 0 5!m(2 / +(,m ? m5 $06 1 #
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
38.3
6! 6$ 1m +1' ?# ? / mm5 $0 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 1 Ă&#x2020; 0 mm + 5 5 ? 6! 6$ 195! 1 40.7
20.8
15.1
8.7
9.8
14FY
15/10MO
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Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÅ o¦ ´ ¨ ¦³ µ Á® » µ¦ r¦³Á ·
´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ³ m¯  ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ 5# 1 +! Ç
26.5
CAGR
10.6%
24.8 22.4 19.2 15.9
14.5 11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Source: Department of Tourism
°¼nÂľÂ&#x160;Â?´Â&#x2014;Ă Â&#x2039;Â&#x153;
' 1 11!m/$ / 8Ă&#x2020;
¤¯Â&#x2013;¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A;
C +& D# 80 6 ' 1 1 +! Ă&#x2021; F1m + ?# 0 F1 + / /8? 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 $ C + 8 C +& ? 0 6 8 6 60+ 8 1? ! !1 5 m$ 171# + 0 5E 8m+0m +/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 E 8FC# ?# 0 5 m 6' 1!m 1 + 1 ?# 0
3.0
2015 2.5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
2.0
2014 1.5
1.0
' 1 11!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 #+! ;5m+ / m 7 m +2& + 8$ C! 1 E 8F1 1m.8. ' 1 1 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 5 5 20% m 1m$ 171# E 8 0# 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; F1 1 . . $mG8! /' # /$ m! C$ 8 m!1 ? m$ 1 /$ 1!1Ă&#x2021; 6' 7+! 10 1 +m ! + m + 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; ? 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 8! 6 5 5 Ă&#x2026;1 24.2% mC$ 8 m!1F1 /Ă&#x2020; 5#
0.5
0.0
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Â&#x153;´Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;n°Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Ă&#x2030; ÂŞÂ&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x2039;¸ Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;¨³¤¾à ¨à Â&#x17D;¸¼à Â&#x2026;o¾¤¾à ¥¡¤Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153;¤¾Â&#x201E;Â&#x161;¸Ă&#x2030;ÂÂťÂ&#x2014;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.19a
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.19b
Â&#x160;Ă?´Â&#x203A;ŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;ÂĽÂłĂ&#x2039;Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x201E;n´£´Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x203A;ÂłÂ&#x192;Â&#x2122;mÂŻÂ&#x2030;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;¤Š Ă&#x192;Â&#x153;mÂ&#x2030;Â&#x2014;´£³Â?Â&#x152;´Â&#x2014;Âś
10 ÂŻÂłÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x153;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122; £´Â&#x192;Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;ÂŹÂşÂ&#x2013;Ă&#x201A;£šĂ&#x160;ÂŻĂ&#x201A;Â&#x2122;¡¤Â&#x153;Â&#x192;
6! 6$ 1? /! Ă&#x2021; 70
10 1 +m 2015, 9!1
Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.6 5.3
27.9
51.2
10FY
14.7 5.0
26.5
53.8
11FY
13.8 4.8
25.3
56.0
12FY
11.9
11.9
China
4.4
4.5
Malaysia
23.8
59.9
13FY
24.8
58.8
14FY
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Korea
191.3
Hong Kong
185.3
Taiwan
161.5
Vietnam
154.9
Japan
122.3
India
120.8
Singapore
99.8
Laos
82.1
Â&#x153;Â?nÂŞÂ&#x160;Â&#x161;¸Â&#x;Ă&#x2030; nÂľÂ&#x153;¤¾Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160;
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+! Ă&#x2021;
' 1 11!m/$ / 8Ă&#x2020; 06!.C 2,982.7 875.9
6! 6$ 1? 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 06!.C m ' 1 1 +! Ă&#x2021; F1m + ?# 0 /$ / Ă&#x2020;8 /! Ă&#x2021; 70
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
6! 6$ 11!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 06!.C 0$ 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 0 m 1!mF1+ 8 7m 75! 1!m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 m C 8 !1 m ?# 0 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 16 / Ă&#x2020;6 5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; + Ă&#x2020; 8I F1+ 8 7m 75! 6' 7+! F1 11 Ă&#x2021; !m/$ / Ă&#x2020;8 m 1 5 0 5 D 8 ?# 0 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä Á º° . .  n¥ ´ °¥¼n 뵃 ªnµ ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ç 70
1
1.83
1
1.51
1.49 1.38
1
1.38
0
1.04 0.84 0.68
0.66
0
0.72
0
0
0 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
1%
Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2039;§¡Ă&#x160;¤¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A;
! + m + $ 1
1.40
1.20
1.00
2015
0.80
0.60
2014
0.40
' 1 2 mm +m +6' + o m +/' 1? + C m+ DĂ&#x2020; 6' 1!m 16n 7$ C Ă&#x2026;1; # ' 1 1m +6' + 5 + 0 5;5 ! + m + $ 1 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 1 7 + # 8 ' 1 1m' 5! + 1 ; # $ 1 70 8n
5/ Ă&#x2020;0 8 15 ?1 Ă&#x2021; 5 F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + 0 5!m(2 8$ 71 Ă&#x2020; 8$ F ! $ 1 Ă&#x2021; 0$ #/' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' $ #7 1 60! + 17+ + m + ++ F1 + 7 $ 30 !1 m$ 1 !16!0o (2& 0$ #/ ' 1 5 0$0 1 + ' 5 0$ #7 1/' F1+ 7 $ 30 !1m$ 1 !1 6!0o (2& $9+# 0/ Ă&#x2020; /' 1F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + m' 5! + 1+ 0 70 8n
5/ m 1/ Ă&#x2020;0 8 15 ?1 Ă&#x2021; F16! 7& 7$ m +6' + Ă&#x2026;1; # 8 $F1m' 5! + 1 ! !1 7+ Ă&#x2026;1; #n m ! ' 1m 8 $F1 + o/m' 5! + 1 / Ă&#x2020;+ V m 5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
0.20
! + m + $ 1 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; F1 1 . . $8! 8 $ 'Ă&#x2020; m $ 1%
0.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D
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°´Â&#x2DC;ÂŚÂľÂ&#x201E;¾ŒªnÂľÂ&#x160;Â&#x160;ÂľÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤĂ&#x2026;Â&#x161;ÂĽÂ&#x2DC;Ă&#x17D;ÂľĂ&#x2030; ¤¾Â&#x201E;à ¤º°Ă&#x2030; Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â?Â&#x17E;ÂŚÂł Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 2.09 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Â&#x192;´¼Šm´Â&#x2030;Â&#x2030;´Â&#x203A;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ&#x2014;m´Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2C6; mm +6' + 5$ 6 , % ? m' 5! + 1/! Ă&#x2021; 70
Thailand Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Q3
0.9 2.0
South Korea Ͳ Oct
3.1
Japan Ͳ Oct
3.1
Malaysia Ͳ Sep Hong Kong Ͳ Oct Vietnam Ͳ 2014 Taiwan Ͳ Oct China Ͳ Q3 India Ͳ 2013 US Ͳ Oct Russia Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Oct Pakistan Ͳ 2014 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q3 Brazil Ͳ Oct Euro Area Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.5
³à Â&#x161;°ºĂ&#x2030;Â&#x153;
! + m + $ 1F1 $5 + / m + + 8 / 8 ! + m + $ 1F1 + / $ I + + 0E 81 86 + E E10 6 &
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
! + m + $ 1F1 + / /8 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! + / Ă&#x2020;1I 5# 8! n $ ' Ă&#x2020; / Ă&#x2020;6 F1?2 / Ă&#x2020;F1 + / 9!41 5# 0 ! + m + $ 1 $ 1?# 6 E 8 >9 F18 E+ED1
7.9 10.8 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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°´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ¥ ¸ÄÉ Á º° ¡.¥.
´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤ .
´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Nov-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q
´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
Max
2.50%
Min Dec-14
0.00% Nov-15
Dec-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
Source: Bank of Thailand
Â&#x2014;¼´Â&#x2013;ÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x153;¡Ă&#x2039;¤Â&#x201E;n´£Â&#x2020;šÂ&#x203A; BIBOR*
! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Nov-15
C +& 6 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 1E8 8? - /. ( ! +
m 8Ă&#x2021; D Ă&#x2021; 19!1- ! + 1 !1) F1+ 8 5 12 1 5$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; F1 5 m #8 0 1 !1+ 7 $ -1 + F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6
C +& D 6 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 1< m 0/+!98&F1 -1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Ă&#x2020; 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6 C +& 6 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 1m #5 m # C!1Ă&#x2021;
F1-1 +9 2 C8&6 6 5 ' Ă&#x2020; 6 F1+ 8 5 12 15$ 6
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
Â&#x2014;¼´Â&#x2013;ÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x153;¡Ă&#x2039;¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;§n Â&#x192; Âť Â&#x2020;n´Â&#x152;ÂłÂ&#x203A; Ă&#x2039; Â&#x2013;¡ Â&#x161;. ´Â&#x2022;ÂśÂ&#x152;¤q 10.00%
Max 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50% 0.00% Nov-15
# 8 + m
!1 m 1 E1#0m + E / +(,m / Ă&#x2020; 0$ 1!m 5 m + ?$ m!15
$ 1? + / Ă&#x2020;1I /' F7# F1 10 Ă&#x2021; m +5
m 8Ă&#x2021; 1E8 8 5# n 6 +! Ă&#x2021; + 0m!1 0.5% m +5 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; n Ă&#x2026;1m +FC# 1E8 8m + 1F1m +m+ #1 +(,m 7+ m1!871 Ă&#x2020;
0 # $ 2 m++0m +1E8 8m + 10 $ m + E +(,m 8! # m +m +m+ #1 8$ + mG ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; 1E8 8/ Ă&#x2020; 1.5% F1 ! !1 ?# Fm5# 18&0 m 5# 5 ' m! m + ' 1 11E8 85 ! +
m 8Ă&#x2021; 9 Ă&#x2020; m+ #1 +(,m F1 1 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨Á · n µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ¤µ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ °
´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 2500
2000
2015
1500
1000
500
0
D
Source: Bank of Thailand
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
Â&#x160;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160;
+ 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 +!, 58! 0 098 8 0 +$ m + m $ 8 + 0 2 9 Ă&#x2020; m +m+ #1 +(,m E 8F1C$ 9 1/ Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 0 + 8 $ 8F1 + 0 2 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 9% 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! C$ 8 m!1? /Ă&#x2020; 5#
2014
m +FC# $ 8o +!,6 0 +nm+ #1m + E / +(,m # $ 7+ 8. m # 1mG 1!8m + 5! DĂ&#x2020; + # F1 + Ă&#x2020; 5 + 0 2m!1 m/
S
O
N
D Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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£µ »¦ · ¨´ ¤µ¤° è Ä Â n ¸nª °» µ® ¦¦¤¤° à ´¥q 1.18a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹Ê¯£³Ê º¥ ¶ *
´¥q 1.18b
100
200
Better
Better
50
100 50.3
49.1
46.4
46.4
47.3
50.2 85.4
Worse
84
Worse
0
0 May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
May-15
Jun
Note: (*) Below is the i Index = 100 i Index > 100 i Index < 100 i
Ă&#x192;¨Â&#x201E;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x160;n¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Â&#x2DC;.Â&#x2021;. â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x2020;Š´£Ă&#x201A;Â&#x152;šĂ&#x160;ÂŻÂŁÂłĂ&#x160;Â&#x203A;¢´Â&#x2020;ÂŻÂşÂ&#x2014;´ÂÂ&#x192;ÂĽÂĽÂŁ**
0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; - +m C +& 6 !C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; o - +m ! /' E 8m +6' + ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 mm5 $0 ! 8$ 1,500 + 8 E 8 m +6' + + 0Ă&#x2020; 6$ 6 n 0F1C$ 6! 7&6 /# 8? 1/ Ă&#x2020;6' + 5 + + 0 + 0 5;5F16! 7&/Ă&#x2020; 3 ? 1n! !C1 0 $ /$ m! 50 70 8n 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; / - +m /+ ! ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ă&#x2021; 0 /$ m! ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 ) !C1 0 $ 0 mm $ 50 70 8n 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; / - +m ?1 Ă&#x2021; ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ă&#x2021; 0 0 mm $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$ 5 ) !C1 0 $ 1# 8m $ 50 70 8n 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; / - +m 8$ ( ' 1 1; # $ ?1 Ă&#x2021; 0 1# 8m $ ' 1 1; # $ 8$5 )
4.0
n-15
83.0
82.4
82.8
84.7
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
nterpretation of the index: ndicates that industries sentiment remains stable ndicates that industries sentiment has improved ndicates that industries sentiment has worsened
C +& 6 !C1 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; o 6 7m++0 ! /' E 8 6o 6 7m++0 7$ + / /8 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0 6o 9 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020; 0$ $
!C1 8 $F1+ ! 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++0 0 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0$0 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 7+ 8 $F16o 9/+ ! F1+ ! 0 $ !C1 8 $F1+ ! 6 m $ 100 6 $ ; # + m m +o 6 7m++00 0 C Ă&#x2020; 0!1Ă&#x2020; $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0 6o 9 ?1 Ă&#x2021; 7+ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020;
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
o - +m m5! 0 0 E5mF1 $ 6$ 1 6 7m++00 E5mF1 $5 5 F1 1 . . Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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Â&#x;ÂźÂ?o Œ¡Ă&#x192;ÂŁÂ&#x2021;¤°Â&#x160;Ă&#x192;¨Â&#x201E;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x160;nÂŚÂľo ¼¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Â&#x2DC;.Â&#x2021;. Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 1.17 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x2020;Š´£Ă&#x201A;Â&#x152;šĂ&#x160;ÂŻÂŁÂłÂ&#x203A; Ă&#x160; Â&#x17E;ÂťnÂ&#x153;ÂĽÂśĂ&#x201E;¢Â&#x2020; 100
100
Overall
Better
On job
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
(*) 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0-100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I ?1 Ă&#x2021; 7+ 8 F$ 1+ ! n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 0$ 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 F$ 1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ă&#x2021; I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$ Source: Ministry of Commerce
100
!C1 0 C Ã&#x2020; 0!1Ã&#x2020; ; # + Eo
On future income
! /' E 8m+ /+ 9 2 C8& m 6 n 0 ! 8$ m + C C1/! Ã&#x2020; + / 0 $ 8 $+ 7 $ 0100 n# !C1 8 $6 m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0
0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ã&#x2021; I ?1 Ã&#x2021; 7+ 8 $F1+ !
n# !C1 8 $F1+ ! 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0
0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ã&#x2021; I 0$ 5 Ã&#x2020;81 5 7+ /+ ! 8 $F1+ ! 1m5 n# !C1 8 $F1 ' Ã&#x2020; m $ 50 6 $ ; # + Eo 0 0 7G1 $ o m +2& # 11!1Ã&#x2021; I 8$5 7+ 8 $F1+ ! 0$
Better 50 Worse
m + 5 Ã&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
; # + Eo 0 E5mF1 $+# 85 5 F1 1 . . E 8 !C1
0 C Ã&#x2020; 0!1Ã&#x2020; ; # + Eo 75!m 9 0Ã&#x2020; Ã&#x2026;1 36.2 $8! ' Ã&#x2020; m $ ! / Ã&#x2020; 50 C$ 1 8 m! !C1 0 C Ã&#x2020; 0!1Ã&#x2020; # 1 m +7 1 5 + 8 #F1 1
0 Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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£µ¡´ r ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · à ° ´Ê ¸ ¸Ê ¨ ° ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·
´¥q 1.03b –
6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $
6' 7+! 2016, % m + 6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00 The Economist poll
FPO
3.50
NESDB
3.00
BOT
2.50
2.00 A-15
M-15
J-15
J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
A-15
M-15
J-1
Foreca
°¸Â&#x201E;Â&#x2021;ΫĂ&#x160;Â&#x160;
Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2022;qÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;¡Â&#x2013;¡ ¡
5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $
15
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50 The Economist poll 4.00
FPO BOT
3.50
NESDB 3.00
2.50
2.00 J-15
A-15
S-15
O-15
N-15
+ 0 2m +2&m + E ? 9 m + + 0 2m +2& ! + m + E / Ă&#x2020; /# + ? 9 F1 ! !1 5 $ E 871$ 8 1 $ I C$ 1 -1 + 7$ + / /8 (BOT) 6o 9!41&) (NESDB) 6' 1!m 1 +(,m m + 5! (FPO) 5 E955&? 1 86 + E E10 6 & m + + 0 2m +2& 75$ 1 0Ă&#x2021; m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 06n 1m +2& 5 ?# 0 55$ 6
! 1!1Ă&#x2021; 0 m + +! 5 Ă&#x2020;81 8 $ 60 m + +! 5 Ă&#x2020;81 75$ 1 mĂ&#x2021; Gn $ 6 0 +n6 /# 10 00 $ 6o +(,m Ă&#x2021; 71# ? 6' 1!m $ I # C +& # 6 m + + 0 2m +2&? $5 6' 1!mF1 $5 C$ 5 # 9 Ă&#x2020; m + + 8 / 8 5 8# 175!
m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6
6o 9!41& +! 5 + 0 2m +2&m + E ? /! Ă&#x2021; 1 Ă&#x2021; 5 m +! Ă&#x2021; 6' 7+! m + + 0 2m +2&m + E 9 ? 6' 1!m $ I 8 $+ 7 $ 2.7-3.4% 6' 7+! 2015 5 3.5-4.0% 6' 7+! 2016
ast as of, month ending
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Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ rªnµ ³Á · à ŠoÄ ¦³ ´ µ ¨ °ºÉ Ç Â n 뵃 Á º° » Á¤º°É ¼Á ¡µ³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·
´¥q 1.04
6' 7+! 2015, % m + 5 Æ81 5 $ , 2 30/11/2015
6' 7+! 2016,
India China Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Singapore South Korea Hong Kong US Australia Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia
India Vietnam 6.9 China 6.4 Philippines 6.3 Malaysia 5.7 Indonesia 5.4 Pakistan 4.7 Thailand 3.4 Singapore 3.2 South Korea 2.9 Taiwan 2.4 Australia 2.4 US 2.4 Hong Kong 2.3 Euro Area 1.5 Japan 0.7 Russia -0.4 Brazil -1.2 7.3
-2.8 -3.9
Source: The Economist
¨¾Â&#x160;à ¤º°Ă&#x2030; Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â?Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤ
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2022;qÂ&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2014;ÂśÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x2014;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;¡Â&#x2013;¡ ¡ % m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 $ , 2 30/11/2015 7.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.1
m + + 0 2m +2&m + E m.F1 + / $ I m + m +2&m + E / Ă&#x2020; /# + ? 9 F1 ? +(,m $ I/ Ă&#x2020;6' !.? E5mE 8E955&? 1 86 +
E E10 6 & 6 0 +nFC# / 8 ! + m + E F1 $5 ? +(,m # 0 m + ;8 9+$/ mI6! 7&F11 86 +
E E10 6 &
m + + 0 2m +2&5$ 6
6' 7+! 2015 5 2016 +(,m /8n m m +2& $ E #F1+ ! 1m5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! + / Ă&#x2020;1I $ 'Ă&#x2020; m 6 0 Ă&#x2020; >9 F1 D 81 E 8 1 8n m
$ E 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 F1 ++ +(,m ?1 F7.$ 6 m $ 1/ Ă&#x2020; + C0 &m + E 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 0 5 F1 + 8 75!
1.7 1.2
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ´ªÉ Å ¥´ Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ Á º°É ¤µ µ ¨ ° ¦µ µ¡¨´ µ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢
´¥q 3.07b
% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#
% m + 5 Æ81 5
Veg
1.50%
Tobacco & a
Food away from
1.00%
Recreation & Edu
Core*
Medic
0.50%
Prepared food at
Apparel and foo 0.00%
Non alcoholic bev -0.50%
Head line
Housing & furn
-1.00%
Sea
Eggs -1.50%
Jun-15
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
Transport & C
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Â&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â?Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x201E;n°Â&#x153;ÂŽÂ&#x153;oÂľ
b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¼´Â&#x2020;´Â&#x17E;ÂťnÂ&#x153;ÂĽÂśĂ&#x201E;¢Â&#x2020;¼´¤Â&#x192;§ºmÂŁÂŹÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
5 m m$ 171# , 9.8. 2015 & fruit
2.9
!C1 + ; # + Eo
!C1 + ; # + Eo Ă&#x2026;1 !C1 /Ă&#x2020; m+ ! + /! Ă&#x2020; ? 6 1 # 5 + m +/ Ă&#x2020;; # + Eo FC# $ 8 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo Ă&#x2026;1/ Ă&#x2020;1 80FC# F1m + ! ! + 1 :# ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8&
alcohol
1.8
m home
1.4
ucation
1.3
al care
0.9
t home
0.9
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
otware
0.5
verage
0.5
Meat
0.5
F1 19.8. !C1 + ; # + Eo /! Ă&#x2020; 8! 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5 m m$ 171# 1 Ă&#x2020; 0 m;5? + 95! 1 $ 0 Ă&#x2020; !C1 + 6 1 # m5 $0 Ă&#x2020;1mG8! 9 $ 6$ 1F7.$ 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; m m$ 1
nishing
0.1
Rice
0.1
soning
-0.1
& milk
-0.9
Commu
Energy
-6.1 -14.9 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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Á n Á ¸¥ª ´ · à ¦r ¦³Á «Å ¥¤¸ ´ ¸¦µ µ ¼ o ¦·Ã£ ¨ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Ä§ % m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#
Latest
Russia Ͳ Oct
15.6
Brazil Ͳ Oct
9.9
Indonesia Ͳ Oct
6.2
India Ͳ Oct
5.0
Malaysia Ͳ Oct
2.5
Hong Kong Ͳ Oct
2.4
Pakistan Ͳ Oct
1.6
Australia Ͳ Q3
1.5
1.
China Ͳ Oct
1.3
1.
South Korea Ͳ Oct
0.9
0.8
Philippines Ͳ Oct
0.4
Japan Ͳ Oct
0.3
Vietnam Ͳ Nov
0.3
Taiwan Ͳ Oct
0.3
0.1
US Ͳ Oct
0.2
0.3
Euro Area Ͳ Oct
0.1
0.1
Singapore Ͳ Oct
-0.8
Thailand Ͳ Nov
-1.0
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
0.7
0.2 0.8
Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160;Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x201E;n°Â&#x153;ÂŽÂ&#x153;oÂľ
2015* 15.0 8.9 6.4 5.0 2.5 3.1
1 :# F1E5m m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6 ? !C1 + ; # + Eo F1 + / $ I m + m +2& ! + 1 :# ? /! Ă&#x2021; E 8 E
E10 6 &E955&
3.9
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
.7
C$ 1 8 m! 6 E +& + / /80 !C1 + ; # + Eo
5 5 m m$ 171#
6
2.4
2.5
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¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ¼ o ¨· ¥´ 뵃 ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n°
´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶
´¥q 3.09
% m + 5 Æ81 5 m m$ 171#
% m + 5 Æ81
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
Jun-15
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Ene M Pulp & pa Other manu go W Tex Leather & footw Mechin Fore Fore NonͲmetallic min F C Electrical eq Chem Basic me Livesto Rubber & pla Fish Petroleum prod
9b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡¼´Â&#x2020;´Â&#x17E;ÂťnÂ&#x17E;§œÂ&#x2014;¼´¤œÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2020;n´
5 m m$ 171# , 9.8. 2015
ergy Metal aper oods Wood xtile ware nery estry estry neral Food Crop quip mical etals ocks astic hing ucts
6.0 5.1 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3
!C1 + ; #;5 ! + 1 :# F1+ ! ; #;5 ! E 8 $ m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 + ; #;5 ! /' E 86' 1!m !C1 +(,m m + # m+ /+ 9 2 C8& C +& 6 n m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1 !C1 + 0 5 8m 0+ 8 6 7m++0
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+ ! ; #;5 8! ' Ă&#x2020; m $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1F1 19.8. E 8+ ! + ; #;5 F1 15 ' Ă&#x2020; 5 3% 5 0 Ă&#x2020; + 86 1 # mG9 $ 6$ 1F7.$0 + ! + / Ă&#x2020; 5 5 # 8 C$ 1m!1
-1.2 -2.0 -3.3 -4.1 -4.2 -4.4 -9.9 -24.4 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
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¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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· Á ºÉ°¥´ ¥µ¥ ´ªÂ¤oªnµ ³ 뵃 ªnµ nª n° ® oµ ¸Ê ´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶  ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 9!15# 1 / 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m©  ¶ Ån¬¶  ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 100% 96.4%
95.7%
95.7%
95.4%
94.9%
94.8%
94.5%
94.5%
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
95%
90% Oct-14
Nov-14
Source: Bank of Thailand
Dec-14
May-15
5
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6 1 C Ă&#x2020; ? -1 +9 2 C8&
Jun-15
96.5%
Jun-15
M-o-M
Y-o-Y
+0.4%
+5.3%
Jul-15
Aug-15
-1 +9 2 C8&/' 71# / Ă&#x2020;+! 1< m 5 5$ 8m # !C1 m + 5$ 8m # $ 1< m/! Ă&#x2021; 70 Ă&#x2026;16 Ă&#x2020; / Ă&#x2020;6 /# 1n m + 6!09!1-&? o +(,m / Ă&#x2020; /# + m! o
m + 1 n# !C1 0 $ 6 6 /# 1n m +/ Ă&#x2020;0 E m 6F1 m +5 / 1 ( 5$ 8m #) #0 m n# !C1 0 $ ' Ă&#x2020; mG 6 /# 1n 6n 1m +2& + m!1?# 0 Sep-15
97.1%
97.3%
97.3%
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
6 1 C Ă&#x2020; 8! ?8 8 ! 0# $ ' Ă&#x2020; m $ C$ m$ 171# 1 Ă&#x2021; F1?2 / Ă&#x2020;6o 9 5$ F1+ -1 + + 0Ă&#x2020; ! 5Gm1# 8 E 8 ! + 6$ 1 1F7#6 1 C Ă&#x2020; $ 1< m? -1 + 9 2 C8&DĂ&#x2020; 6 /# 16o 9 5$ ? + -1 +/+ ! / Ă&#x2020; 97.3%
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® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³Ä ¦¼ ´Ê ®¤ ´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Ån ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 9!15# 1 /
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
270
256
267
2
10YE
11YE
12YE
13YE
14
2.26%
2.16%
2.
12YE
13YE
14
´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m m¯Ån ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´¥Â ¶ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ç 70
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
07YE
08YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
09YE
10YE
2.75%
11YE
This section is sponsored by
´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Â&#x2DC;n°¼°Â&#x2014;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;Âź o
71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #
299
278
4YE
312
361
2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
Gross NPLs 70 8n 8
# ? 1F7#6 1 C Ă&#x2020;
# 8 2o 9 # m$ 1F7#61 C Ă&#x2020; ! C!1Ă&#x2021; ' Ă&#x2020; m $ 0 +, 1 6 6!8 6 6!8 6 . 5 6 . 0 m2A& m + ! C!1Ă&#x2021; ? -1 + 7$ + / /8 C +& 6 71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; 0$m$ F7# m + 8 #? /! Ă&#x2021; + 6n !1m + 1 /! Ă&#x2021; F1+ ! 1 5 6! 6$ 1? 8 5$ 8m #/ ! Ă&#x2021; 70
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; 0$m$ F7# m + 8 # 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; /! Ă&#x2021; F1 # 10 5 $ 5 F1+ 6! 6$ 1 $ 8 1m #/ ! Ă&#x2021; 70 F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6 0
16%
4YE
2.29%
2.38%
2.79%
2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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´Â&#x2014;ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;°Â&#x160;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Â&#x203A;Â&#x153;ÂľÂ&#x2021;¾Œ¥¾Â&#x2013;¡Â?ÂĽrà ¥¡¤Ă&#x2030; Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Â&#x201E;. ÂŚÂłÂ&#x2014;´Â?ÂÂźÂ&#x160; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´mŠÂ&#x203A;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x161;Â&#x203A;´Â&#x2020;´¼ ´Â&#x2022;ÂśÂ&#x152;¤q 6! 6$ 1 $ 6 1/+!98& 6 Ă&#x2020;8 2 6 1Ă&#x2021; 16.8% 15.8%
16.2%
16.1%
14.9%
15.7%
14.8% 14.0%
13.9% 13.3%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
Source: Bank of Thailand
2014
This section is sponsored by
.ÂĽ. Ă&#x201A;¨³¼´Â&#x160;Â&#x2122;º°ªn¾°¼ŸnĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;
Â&#x2022; ÂŹÂśĂ&#x2039;Â&#x203A;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A; 17.5%
! + 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 2015
17.0%
2014 16.5%
1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& / 81F1 + / 70 8n 6$ 1? ; #n 7 #1 6 1/+!98& 6 Ă&#x2020;8 70 8n 6 1/+!98&n$ 1# 71!m 0 0 6 Ă&#x2020;8 /! Ă&#x2021; 6 1Ă&#x2021; DĂ&#x2020; Ă&#x2026;1 8 + 0? + 8m +F1 m + 1/ Ă&#x2020; #n$ 1# 71!m 0
0 0 0 6 Ă&#x2020;8 ( 0 + m - /.) ! + 6$ 1 8 Ă&#x2020; 6 8 Ă&#x2020; 6 n 00!1Ă&#x2020; F1+ -1 +
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
16.0%
6! 6$ 1 1m / 1? -1 +9 2 C8& 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2026;1 17.3% F1 1m.8. DĂ&#x2020; n $ 8 $F1+ ! 6 15.5%
15.0%
14.5%
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¤¸Ž¨¾¼Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;ÂŤÂ&#x161;¸¤Ă&#x2030; ¸°Â&#x2DC;´ ÂŚÂľÂ&#x2014;°Â&#x201E;Ă Â?¸Ă&#x160; ÂĽÂ&#x161;¸Ă&#x201A;Ă&#x2030; Â&#x161;oÂ&#x2039;Œ¡Â&#x160;Â&#x2DC;¡Â&#x2014;¨Â? Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x2022;qÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Â&#x2013;ÂŻÂ&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x153;¡Ă&#x2039;¤Â&#x2122;¡Ă&#x160;Ă&#x192;Â&#x2122;nÂ&#x160;ÂĽÂśÂ&#x2030; 2 !1/ Ă&#x2020; 27/11/2015
ŕľ&#x17E;
3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil
Expected 2015 inf
14.3
Russia
8.9
12.6
Indonesia
8.7
India
6.4
7.1
Pakistan
5.0 3.9
6.5
Vietnam
2.5
4.7
Malaysia
3.7
2.5
China
3.1
1.6
Australia
2.7
1.7
Singapore
2.5
Philippines
2.2
0.2 2.4
South Korea
1.7
0.8
Thailand
1.4
0.8
Taiwan
0.9
0.1
US
0.4
0.3
Hong Kong
0.4
Japan
0.1
Euro Area
-0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
3.1 0.7 0.1
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flation*
=
Real interest rates 5.4
15.0
-2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.2
! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + F1 + / $ I C +& 6 - 71 Ă&#x2020; F1m + ' 1 2 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + E 8 + 0 2m +2& ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + F1 ! !1 = ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; - ! + 1 :# m +2&
1.2
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
1.5
0 75 8 + / / Ă&#x2020;0 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + 5 6$ 1 + / /8 ! + m 8Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020; /# + + 0 2 8 $/Ă&#x2020; m 1%
1.0 2.3 -0.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.1 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2
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Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;ÂĄ.ÂĽ. Â&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x153;¸ SET Â&#x17E;ΫÂ?¨Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x160; 2.5% Â&#x161;n¾¤Â&#x201E;¨¾Â&#x160;Â&#x201E;¾ŒĂ&#x2026; Â&#x2DC;nÂľÂ&#x160;Â?ÂľÂ&#x2DC;¡°¸Â&#x201E;Œ³¨°Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡ SET
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Â&#x192;´
% m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 m 1m$ 171#
2 !1/ Ă&#x2020; 28/10/2015 China (SSEB, $ terms)
3.4%
France (CAC 40) 0.6%
Germany (DAX) Japan (Nikkei 225) China (SSEA) -2.4%
Jun-15
-4.3%
-4.0%
Jul-15
Aug-15
-2.5%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) US (NAScomp)
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
S Korea (KOSPI) Pakistan (KSE)
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; £§Â&#x2020;m´Â&#x192;´¼§Â&#x2030;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;²£Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;Â&#x2014;m´Â&#x2030;Â&#x152;´Â&#x2014;Âś SET 5 MAI, ! Ă&#x2021; $ #1 n 6 1Ă&#x2021; 1, 9!15# 1 /
US (S&P 500) US (DJIA) Australia (All Ord.)
0.0
UK (FTSE 100)
-20.0
Malaysia (KLSE)
-40.0
HK (Hang Seng)
-60.0
India (BSE)
-80.0
Thailand (SET)
-100.0
Taiwan (TWI)
-120.0
Indonesia (JSX)-
-140.0 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15
Source: SET, The Economist
J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15
Singapore (STI) -
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Ă&#x2026;Ž¨°°Â&#x201E;Â&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x161;ÂťÂ&#x153;
´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x152;Â&#x203A;¡Â&#x203A;ÂłÂ&#x153;Â&#x160;´Â&#x192;ÂŹÂśĂ&#x2039;Â&#x203A;Â?d 2014 36.3% 14.5% 13.9% 13.7% 12.7% 11.2%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ? !C1 75!m/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.I C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 + 8 1? !C1 75!m/+!98& SET ? + / /8 C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ ! !C1 75!m/+!98&/Ă&#x2020;6 ' !.I? E5m 1! ! Ă&#x2021; $61 Ă&#x2021; m$ 1 F16m 5 1/# n 1Ă&#x2020;
8.0% 4.9% 3.3% 1.5% -0.1% -2.7%
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
F1 19.8. !C1 SET +! 5 5 2.5% /$ 0m5 m + 75 m? 1/ 1 $ C m+ 5 m 5 C$ 1 8 m!1m! 5 7 #1F1 +(,m m F70$ !C1 SET 5 5 8$ 0 mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ?
-3.5% -4.4% -4.7% -6.3% -7.8% -9.9%
12.3%
14.1% Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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54
¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ 2
´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ £¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ · · ·
5 1F1 + 0 2
5 16
1.3%
1.0%
-0.2%
-0.5%-0.6%
-0.7% -1.0%-1.0%
-0.8%
-1.6% -1.9% -2.5%
-3.8% -4.2%
05FY
06FY
07FY
08FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
09FY
10FY
11FY
2014
5 + 0 2 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9
5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1 F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8+!, 5
5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 1 70 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5 C +& 6 5 1F1 + 0 2 5 5 16 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 Ă&#x2026;1+# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + /
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-1.9% -2.1%
-2.2%-2.3%
-3.4% -3.8%
12FY
13FY
/! Ă&#x2021; 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?
5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 m +?
5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 0 $ 0 m? 1Ă&#x2021; 8$ 0 m F1 2009 0 m +?
5 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9 6$ 1 2012 0 m + ?
5 + 0 26 0 m 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9 5 F1+ 10 0 9 8 2009 /$ 1!1Ă&#x2021; / Ă&#x2020;?
50 mm $ m +?
5 + 0 2 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; F1 2014
14FY Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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»¨ ¦³¤µ µ »¨¤µ ªnµ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ªnµ ¦ ° ¸ 2015 ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ 9!15# 1 / 2,075
¥´¤¥³ 1,241
º§ ¥²£´
-36
1,390
1,751 1,455
1,498
-174
-100
2,076
-267
-295
-2,424
-2,371
1,902
1,484
110 -75
-27
-364
-1,277
2,158
-414
-1,280 -1,629
¥´¤ m´¤
-1,598 -1,849
-1,825
-1,930 -2,489
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
¾ŽÂ&#x201E;Ž¤ºÂ&#x153;Ă&#x2030; ¨oÂľÂ&#x153; Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153; 10 Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;
Â&#x2013;º§Â&#x2030;Â&#x153;Â?¼²£´Â&#x2022;²£¼´¤Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2013;š¯Â&#x203A; 50
5 + 0 2
0
5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m + 8 $ 8+!, 5 C +& ? 0 6 5 + 0 2 6 60+ 8 1? 5$ 6 / 8 m! m$ 171#
2014 -50
-100
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-150
5 + 0 2?
50 mm $ C$ 8 m!1? m$ 1 m $ 7m70 Ă&#x2020;15# 1 F1 10 1 +m? 2015
-200
2015 -250
-300
-350 J
F M A M J
J A S O N D Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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»¨ ¦³¤µ ¨³ »¨Á · µ »¨¡°Ç ´ Ä nª 9 Á
´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ ç² º§Â ¶ ¬ 9!15# 1 / º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 88
-27
-36 -45 -75
-95
-100 -96 -144 -174
-266
-364 -401
-414
-4
05FY
06FY
07FY
08FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Ă Â&#x2014;º°Â&#x153;Ă&#x201A;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;
5 + 0 2 5 5 16
5 16 (Overall cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 (Budget cash balances) + 0m! 5 1 1 m + 0 2 (Non budget cash balances) 5 1F1 + 0 2 + 8 #+!, 575! 7!m+ 8 $ 8 +!, 5 5 11 m + 0 2 + 5 0n m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 !.C 1< m? 6$ 1+ Cm + 5 8 6 /- ? m / 1 170 1 81 $ I ? +!, 5
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-223
-242
-264
-267 -295 -305
/! Ă&#x2021; 5 + 0 2 5 5 16 ?
5F1 9 F1 10 5$ 6 E 8 >9 F1 2007-2010 0 5 $ m +?
5 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 8$ 0 m 8m #1 9 8 2010 6' 7+! F1 Ă&#x2020;1 5 16 m! 5 + 0 20!m 0$ $ m!10 m1!m F1 2012 0 m +?
5F1+ ! 16 6 Ă&#x2026;1 + ! m +2& 6' 7+! F1 10 1 +m? 2015 5 16 ?
50 mm $ 5 + 0 2 8 $m $ 6 Ă&#x2020;70 Ă&#x2020;15# 1 /
466
Y
13FY
14FY
'15/10mo Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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58
Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ° Å
´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È % $ 9 , 70 86' 7+! 2015
-0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.8 -4.0 -4.2 -5.1 -6.0 -6.8
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
¼¼´Â&#x160;Â&#x2122;º°ªnÂľĂ&#x2026;¤nÂÂźÂ&#x160;
0.3 0.0
South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Thailand Euro Area Australia US China Russia
5 + 0 2+!, 5 $ IF1E5m + 8 / 8 5 + 0 2o +!,? + / / Ă&#x2020;6' !. ? E5m ! F1+ +# 85 ? ;5;5 0 5+ 0F1 + / mm + m +2&? ; # ?# +$ 0 E E1 0 6 &E955&
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+!, 56$ 1F7.$F1E5mn m m +2& $ ?
5 + 0 2F1 2015 8m #1 9 8 m 75 F # 5 $ m ?1 ? m +?
5) 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 0 0 m/ Ă&#x2020;6 F1. Ă&#x2020; $ 1 5 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! + / Ă&#x2020;1I m + ?
5 + 0 2? /8/ Ă&#x2020; 2% ? 9 8! n $ 0$ 6
India Malaysia Vietnam Pakistan Brazil Japan
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ÂŽÂ&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; ÂÂľÂ&#x203A;¾ŒÂ&#x2013;³à ¥¡¤Ă&#x2030; ÂÂźÂ&#x160;Â&#x2026;šĂ&#x160; Â&#x153;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;¸ 2015 Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;´Â&#x161;´¼Â&#x2022;²
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;
5# 15# 1 /
6! 6$ 1 $ 9
6.0
5.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
4.0
3.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
2.0
Direct Government debt
1.0
0.0
2011 8%
2012 8%
2013 7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2014 7%
Sep-15 6%
2011
External debt as percent of total
2012
ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;´Â&#x161;´¼Â&#x2022;²
2
50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
Direct Government debt
10%
71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 + m # 8 71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020;+ !, 5m #E 8 + 71 /Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020; +!, 5m # 9 Ă&#x2020; C C8 0 6 87 8F7# m$m / 1 9 Ă&#x2020; m + : Ă&#x2021; 1: ) 71 Ă&#x2021; 1m #5$ 71# 9 Ă&#x2020; +! E + 6+# 71 Ă&#x2021; 71 Ă&#x2021; 6 - +2 m+!, 6 7m 5 71 Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2020;1I C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 0 + o/71 Ă&#x2021; 0 ' 1 1 1 C +& 6 6$ 1 + m 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 0 + o/71 Ă&#x2021; Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 9 0Ă&#x2020; 6 ? 1Ă&#x2021; 5Gm1# 8F1 1/ Ă&#x2021; ! Ă&#x2021; F1+ ! 1 (5.8 5# 15# 1 /) 5 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 (43%) 6 7 75!m m71 +Ă&#x2021; !, 5m #E 8 + E 871 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 6$ 1F7.$ Ă&#x2026;171 FĂ&#x2021; 1 + / (6m 5 1 /)
5% 0%
2013
2014
Sep-15
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ÂŽÂ&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; ÂÂľÂ&#x203A;¾ŒÂ&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x2026;°Â&#x160;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x161;ÂĽĂ&#x2026;¤nÂ&#x2122;°º ÂŞn¾°¼ŸnĂ&#x201E;Â&#x153;ÂŚÂłÂ&#x2014;´Â?Â&#x161;¸ÂĂ&#x2030; ÂźÂ&#x160;à ¤º°Ă&#x2030; Ă Â&#x161;¸¼Â?Â&#x201E;´Â? Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 4.6 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;´Â&#x161;´¼Â&#x2022;²Ă&#x2026;Â&#x203A;Ă&#x201E;§Â&#x192; 6! 6$ 1 $ 9 , 2014 ( + 0 2m +2&) 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 4 Lebanon 5 Italy 6 Jamaica 7 Portugal 8 Cyprus 9 Ireland 10 Grenada 11 Singapore 12 Belgium 13 Eritrea 14 Barbados 15 Spain 16 France 17 Iceland 18 Egypt 19 Puerto rico 20 Canada 21 Bhutan 22 Jordan 23 Antigua and barbuda 24 UK 25 Cabo verde Source: CIA fact book
228 181 175 142 134 132 131 119 119 110 107 102 101 101 98 96 94 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 86
39 United 40 C 43 48 Ur 50 Pa 56 63 Ma 67 71 Th 72 Philip 7 80 Vie 93 M 96 Sw 101 Arg 103 South 105 Hong 108 T 126 129 N 133 Indo 137 147 149 N 164 Saudi
Â?¤¾Â&#x2DC;ÂŚÂ&#x201C;ÂľÂ&#x153;Â&#x153;ÂľÂ&#x153;ÂľÂ?ÂľÂ&#x2DC;¡
states Croatia 3 Israel ruguay akistan 6 Brazil alaysia 7 India hailand ppines 8 Laos etnam Mexico weden entina Korea g kong Turkey Nepal orway onesia 7 China Russia Nigeria arabia
71 70 67 65 64 59 54 51 49 48 46 46 41 40 38 37 37 37 30 30 24 22 13 12 2
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 F1E5m 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 Ă&#x2026;16! 6$ 1 $ 9 F1 + / $ I + 0 2 m +2&E 8 Central Intelligence Agency ? 67+!,)
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+ / 9!41 5# 0 6! 6$ 171 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 $ 9 6 71 Ă&#x2021; 6 - +2 ? /8 0 ! 5? m CIA 8 $/Ă&#x2020; 49% ? 9 F1 2014 DĂ&#x2020; 0$n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020;6 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 0 +, 11 1 C . Ă&#x2020; $ 10 6! 6$ 171 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 $ 9 6 / Ă&#x2020;6 / Ă&#x2020; 228% E 8 + / 6$ 1F7.$/Ă&#x2020;+ ! 71 6Ă&#x2021; - +2 6 0!m 8 $F18 E+
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61
62
¦» ¦³ Î µÁ º°
Growth
• ª¥« ¶ Æ ¤Â ¶ Ä Å ¯³ ¥´ ¥ ³© ·Ê 2.9% Å Æ ¥£´¬ ·Ê¬´£ • Å z} ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ m¯  ·Ê¤©Â |  ¥¹Ê¯ ¤ q§³ ¬ ³ ¬ º • Å z} ´¥ §¶ ¢´ ¥¶ ´¥£·¬m© m©¤ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·£´ • ³ · § §¶ ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£¤³ ÊÏ´ ©m´¥² ³ ¯ d m¯ m¯Æ • ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ¢´ ¯ ç² ´¥§ º Â¥¶Ê£¡f~ ³© • ´¥ Ï´Â n´§ § £´ ©m´ ´¥¬m ¯¯ Ï´ © ³ m¯  ·Ê¤©Æ n¥³ § ¥ • ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ . . à m¤³ ¯¤»m ÊÏ´ ©m´ 1% • ¯³ ¥´ ¯  ·Ë¤ Ĥ ´¤¤³ ¯¤»mÅ m© ´§  ¹Ê¯ ¥² ºn ´¥Â ¶ Ä • ¢´ º¥ ¶ Â¥¶Ê£ §³ £´£¯ ħ Å Ã m · ¬m© ¯º ¬´ ¥¥££¯ ħ Å Ã m¥ • ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä · · ·¯¤»¥m ²©m´ 2.7-3.4% ¬Ï´¥³ d 201
Stability
• Å Â ¹¯ .¤. ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³Ê©Æ ¤³  §·Ê¤ à § ¶ § ´ §³ ´ ² ·Ê¬¶ n´¬m© Å m£·¥² ³ ¥´ ´Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • ¢´ ´ ´¥ ¥ ³© ¬¶  ¹Ê¯¤³ ¤´¤¬m© ¬¢´ §m¯ · ¸Ë 夃 n¯¤ ¬  ¶Ê£ ¸Ë • º§ ¥²£´ ´ º§£´ ©m´ m©  ·¤© ³ ¯ d m¯ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¤³ Æ£m¯³ ¥´¤ • º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ Å 10  ¹¯ Ã¥ ¯ d 2015  ¶ º§ ´ ´¥Â ¶ º§ ¤³ §¹¯Â¡f¯ m´Â ¶ ´ Ã É m´ ¸Ë Å Â ¹¯ .¤.
´¥Â ¶ Ä ·Ê¬º
¥² ´  º ´¥ q¥²Â ¶
¥n´¤§ §  m  ·¤© ³ »n ¥¶Ä¢ 15 ç² 3.5-4.0% ¬Ï´¥³ d 2016
m¯ n´Â ¹Ê¯ £´ ´ § ¯ ¥´ ´
¬³ ¬m©  ¶ ¯ º ¤³ ¬» ãn ·Ë¬·¤
¥ ¯ d 2015 ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Â ¶Ê£ ¸Ë à m
§ ´¥ n´ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª§ § º ¬Ï´¥¯
- $ 1+ 8 1> ! 1 Ç + 8 1> ! 1 nÇ m m F7# $ 1 70 19+ D1 & /C!1Æ E 8; # $ 16 0 +n 0 1 Ç 7 # 0 + G1 6' !./ 5 + G1 F16$ 1? C +& F1 $5 71# 0
' - 8F7# $ 1 $m!1/ 5!01&/ ? 0
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»¨ µ¦ 妳Á · Ä 10 Á º° ¦ ° ¸ 2015 Á · »¨ µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F. 29.8
´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ 9!15# 1 55 +& 10FY
1
31.3
º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥
7.4
5.3
+
-19.7
1.2 10FY
-1.2
´¥Â §¹Ê¯ ¤n´¤
-5.0 10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
15/10mo
21.3
10FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
1
1
ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾Œà Â&#x201E;¡Â&#x153;Â&#x2014;¨Â&#x201E;¾ŒÂ&#x2021;oÂľ
O.B) 29.2 24.6
17.0 6.7
6.7
E + 6+# 5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
15/10mo
¼´¤Ă&#x2020;Â&#x2013;nÂŹÂşÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161;Âś -3.1 -8.1
-8.2
-11.8
-9.2
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 70 8n ;56+ ? m +/' - +m++0 / +(,m + 7 $ ; #0 n1 Ă&#x2020; , 1F1 + / m! ; #0 n1 Ă&#x2020; , 1F1 $ + / F1C$ + 8 5 F 5 71 Ă&#x2020; + m # 8 5m + # 5 + m + 5 + 8 # 5 !.C 1/ 1 5 0 5 5 Ă&#x2020; 16 /-
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1F1 10 1 +m? 2015 m 1 5 mm + m 1 5m + #
11FY
12FY
13FY
14FY
15/10mo
¤Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;Ă&#x192;§²Â&#x2020;Š´£Â&#x2020;§´Â&#x2013;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2020;§šĂ&#x160;ÂŻÂ&#x203A;ÂŹÂşÂ&#x2122;Â&#x161;Âś
6.8
0.1
-7.7
11FY
12FY
13FY
-16.6
-18.7
14FY
15/10mo
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¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2015 GDP*
Singapore Ͳ Q3
21.2%
Taiwan Ͳ Q3
12.8%
South Korea Ͳ Sep
8.0%
Russia Ͳ Q3
5.5%
Philippines Ͳ Jun
4.1%
China Ͳ Q3
3.1%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q2
2.8%
Euro Area Ͳ Sep
2.8%
Japan Ͳ Sep
2.7%
Vietnam Ͳ 2014
2.7%
Malaysia Ͳ Q3
2.5%
Thailand Ͳ Q2
2.4%
Pakistan Ͳ Q3
-0.7%
India Ͳ Q2
-1.1%
Indonesia Ͳ Q3
-2.5%
US Ͳ Q2
-2.5%
Australia Ͳ Q2
-3.8%
Brazil Ͳ Oct
-3.8%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-429.0
Â&#x2039;¸ Â&#x2014;¸¥Â¸ nÂŞÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201E;ÂŽÂ?nĂ Â&#x17E;Ă&#x2C6; Â&#x153;Ă ÂŤÂŚÂŹÂ&#x201C;Â&#x201E;¡Â&#x2039;
Last 12 months, USD Billion 68.6
5 !.C 16 9!
77.2
5 !.C 16 9! (Current Account) ;5+ 0 6 /- ? 5m + # 5 + m + + 8 # ,0o 0 5 + 8 #/ 8o 0 C +& # 1D# 8 6 m + m +2&
5 !.C 16 9! F1+ +# 85 ? 9 E 8 E E1 0 6 &E955& C +& # 1? 6 n 5 !.C 16 9!
F1 12 15$ 6 ? $5 + / F1+ 16m 5
55 +&
107.9 64.3 11.7 279.0 7.4 348.8 121.9 9.1 7.8 24.4 -1.1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
+ / / Ă&#x2020;0 5 !.C 16 9! m 1 50 mI 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 9 6$ 1F7.$ Ă&#x2026;1 +(,m m F70$F1 C 8 + / +' Ă&#x2020; + 8F1 !1 m C$ 167+!,)0 , 1 F1+ +(,m E5m Ă&#x2026;1; #D Ă&#x2021; 6 /-
-25.9 -18.4
-47.4 -74.2 Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘ Copyright Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘. All rights reserved.
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® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä ¸ 2015 ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)
69.0
74.4
76.1
75.3
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
100.6
104.3
10YE
11YE
130.
12YE
´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª 6! 6$ 1 $ 9
38.5%
06YE
35.4%
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
38.0%
12YE
71 Ã&#x2021; $ + /
7
139.9
140.7
136.6
E
13YE
14YE
15/2Q
71 Ã&#x2021; $ + / 70 8n 8
# 71 6Ã&#x2021; 16$ 1/ Ã&#x2020; 0$FC$ / 1 + 17 #1 / Ã&#x2020;; #0 n1 Ã&#x2020; , 1F1 + / m$ ? 1Ã&#x2021; m! ; #0 n1 Ã&#x2020; , 1 F1 $ + / /! Ã&#x2021; 71 6Ã&#x2021; 1/ Ã&#x2020;0 m 8Ã&#x2021; 7+ 0$0 m 8Ã&#x2021; E 80 o + ; m9!1/ Ã&#x2020; # CÃ&#x2039; + 1 1 #1 E 8+ 0 71 6Ã&#x2021; 1/ m6m 5 1 5 / m + o/? m +m #8 0 + + 0 E 8- /. 5 m ;8 9+$/ m +0 6 C +& 6 F1+ 6m 5 1 55 +& C +& 6 F1+ +# 85 ? 9
m + 5 Ã&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
71 Ã&#x2021; $ + / 9 0Ã&#x2020; ? 1Ã&#x2021; 8$ 0 m75! 2009 $ + 0Ã&#x2020; 5 5 F1 1 Ã&#x2021;
%
38.2%
E
13YE
34.5%
33.2%
14YE
15/2Q
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66
à ¦ ¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Á ¨¸¥É  ¨ ¸ ¹Ê à ¥¤ Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë
´¥q 5.11b –
6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / /! Ç 70
6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + /
o mC1 o +!,
16%
84%
11YE
71 +Ç 8 8 71 +Ç 8 6!1Ç
20%
80%
12YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
18%
82%
13YE
18%
82%
14YE
17% 45%
44%
55%
56%
11YE
12Y
83%
15/2Q
¤¸ÂÂ&#x2014;´ ÂnÂŞÂ&#x153;ÂŽÂ&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; Œ³¼³¼¾ª
ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;Â&#x2014;m´Â&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞÂ&#x2014;´£¼²¤²Ă&#x201A;Š§´ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;
/ /! Ă&#x2021; 70
%
6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + /
43%
40%
40%
6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / $ 0 - $ C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / 05!m(2 ? 5 m71 Ă&#x2021; C +& 6 6! 6$ 1? 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / 0 5!m(2 ? + 8 5 1 1E 8+ 8 8 70 8n 0 mm $ 1 + 8 6!1Ă&#x2021; 70 8n 1# 8m $ 1
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
E + 6+# 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / ? /8 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 ?1 Ă&#x2021; E 80 6! 6$ 171 +Ă&#x2021; 8 8 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021;
%
57%
60%
60%
YE
13YE
14YE
15/2Q
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¤¸ µ¦ 妳® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê °¥nµ ¤µ Ä Å ¦¤µ ¸É
´¥q 5.12a – ¥² ³  ¶ º ¬Ï´¥¯ ¥²©m´ ¥²Â ª
´¥q 5.12b – ¯³
6! 6$ 1 $ 71 Ç $ + / + 8 6!1Ç
370% 340% 312% 279%
277%
293%
4.7% 3.4%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13YE
14YE
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
15/2Q
10FY
11FY
°Â&#x160;
Â&#x2014;¼´mŠÂ&#x203A;Â&#x192;´¼Â&#x152;Ă?´¼²ÂÂ&#x203A;¡Ă&#x2039;Â&#x2014;Â?Â&#x2122;.Â&#x2014;mÂŻÂ&#x192;´¼mÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂŻÂ&#x192;
8.1%
06 0 +nF1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + /
0 00 / Ă&#x2020;6 /# 1 06 0 +nF1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / C +& 6 + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ă&#x2021; 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ă&#x2021; C +& 6 ! + 6$ 1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / $ m +6$ m
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
! + 6$ 1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / $ m +6$ m 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; 8$ 0 m m 4.7%F1 +0 6 +m Ă&#x2026;1 8.1% F1 +0 6/ Ă&#x2020;6 8$ +mG + ! 1/ 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ +# 85 ? 71 6Ă&#x2021; 1 $ + / + 8 6!1Ă&#x2021; mG8! n $ 8 $F1+ ! / Ă&#x2020; 5 o!8 (293%) DĂ&#x2020; 9 6+ # $
06 0 +nF1m +CĂ&#x2039; + 71 Ă&#x2021; $ + / ? /88! 0$ 1$ Ă&#x2026;1/ Ă&#x2020;m! 5
4.7% 4.2%
12FY
4.0%
13FY
14FY
15/2Q
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68
Ă Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;ÂĂ&#x17D;¾Œ°Â&#x160;Œ³ŽªnÂľÂ&#x160;Â&#x17E;Œ³à Â&#x161;¼´Â&#x160;Â&#x2021;Â&#x160;¤¸à Ž¨º°à ¢º °Ă&#x201A;¤oÂŞnÂľÂ&#x2039;³¨Â&#x2014;¨ Ă Â&#x2026;oÂľĂ&#x201A;Â&#x161;ÂŚÂ&#x201E;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x17D;Â&#x160;Â&#x2021;n¾à Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;Â?ÂľÂ&#x161;Ă&#x2026;¤nĂ&#x201E;ÂŽo°n°Â&#x153;Ă&#x2026;Â&#x17E;Â&#x153;´Â&#x201E; Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼²Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â&#x2030;¼²ÂŠm´Â&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞ* 9!15# 1 55 +&67+!,)
73.9
2006
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
154.1
2009
191.7
206.4
205.8
2010
2011
2012
Â&#x152;´¼qÂ&#x2014; 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ¼²Â&#x2013;ÂłÂ&#x153;Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2030;ÂśÂ&#x203A;Â&#x2122;ÂşÂ&#x203A;ÂŹĂ?´¼¯Â&#x2030;¼²ÂŠm´Â&#x2030;Â?¼²Ă&#x201A;Â&#x2122;ÂŞ ' 1 1 1/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + $ m +1' ?# #** 13.8
12.6 10.8
9.1 6.9
2006
2007
9.9
7.9
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
2012
Â&#x160;Ă&#x201E;Â&#x153;Â&#x17E;¸ Â&#x153;¸Ă&#x160; Â&#x17D;šĂ&#x2030;Â&#x160;°¾Â&#x2039;¤¾Â&#x2039;ÂľÂ&#x201E;Â&#x201E;¾Œ
16' + + 7 $ + /
8
190.2
180.2
170.3
2
2013
2014
Oct-15
2
16' + + 7 $ + / 6 1/+!98& $ + / / Ă&#x2020; n + E 8-1 +m5 5 6 0 +n1' 0 FC# + E8C1&/!1/ /Ă&#x2020; ' Ă&#x2026;1 C$ 1 9 Ă&#x2020; m +C C8m +?
5m +CĂ&#x2039; + 1 7+ FC# Ă&#x2026;1 + Ă&#x2020; 0 71 Ă&#x2020; F1m + ' 1 1 1E8 8 ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81 1! + 00 5 $ ? Net forward position / Ă&#x2020;- /.0 o + ; m9!1F16!.. currency forward contracts C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F16m 5 1 55 +& 67+!,) C +& 6 0 5 $ + ! 16' + + 7 $ + / F1+ ' 1 1 1/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + $ m + 1' ?# # ( m 1 80F7#FC# CĂ&#x2039; + # m 16 0 1)
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
9.1
9.5
9.9
2013
2014
Oct-15
+ ! 16' + + 7 $ + / 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; m 4 /$ ! Ă&#x2021; $ 2005 $5 5 0 mF1C$ / Ă&#x2020;;$ 10 ? DĂ&#x2020; 0 # $ n mFC# F1m + /+m D $ 1 / 0$F7# $ 15 1!m 8$ +mG 0 Ă&#x2020; ' 1 1 1/ Ă&#x2020;6 0 +n FC# CĂ&#x2039; + $ 6 1 # 1' ?# # mG9 $ 6 0 +nFC# CĂ&#x2039; + #n m 10 1DĂ&#x2020; n $ 6 m 1 0 ' Ă&#x2026;1 0 m
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Ä Á º° ¡.¥. nµÁ · µ Â È nµ ¹Ê 1% Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ »¨ ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´
´¥q 5.17b –
2007 = 100
% / Æ 5 Æ81 5 m MYR Ͳ 8.5524 114.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
MXN Ͳ 2.1688
112.0
AUD Ͳ 26.1664
110.0
EUR Ͳ 38.3219
108.0
IDR Ͳ 2.7517
1.0%
106.0
INR Ͳ 0.5703 SGD Ͳ 25.6424
104.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ0.5%
Baht depreciates Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
102.0
PHP Ͳ 0.775
100.0 Nov-15
KRW Ͳ 0.0312
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
TWD Ͳ 1.1023
GBP Ͳ 54.3712 CNY Ͳ 5.6798 JPY Ͳ 29.5486 VND Ͳ 0.0016
USD Ͳ 36.0549 -8
Baht
¨à Â&#x160;¡Â&#x153;°ºĂ&#x2030;Â&#x153;Ă&#x2021; Â&#x192;´¼Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A;Ă&#x192;Â?§Â&#x2030;Â&#x201E;ÂŻÂ&#x2030;ÂŻÂłÂ&#x2014;¼´Ă&#x192;§Â&#x192;Ă&#x201A;Â?§¡Ă&#x160;¤Â&#x203A; ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81
m /Ă&#x2020; 5# , 2 !1/ Ă&#x2020; 30/11/2015 15.7 10.4 7.8 7.4 4.3 -0.6 -0.8
C +& 6 !C1 $ 1 / (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) 6+# m $ >5 Ă&#x2020;8n$ 1' Ă&#x2021; 71!m? ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81+ 7 $ $ 1 / 5 $ 1 23 6m 5/ Ă&#x2020;6' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ ? /8 E 81' Ă&#x2021; 71!m / Ă&#x2020;FC# ? 1Ă&#x2021; 8 $m! 06' !.F1, 1 $ # 5 $ ?$ m + 9 0Ă&#x2020; ? 1Ă&#x2021; ? !C1 70 8n m + ?G $ ? 1Ă&#x2021; ? 1 / $ 10 ? C +& 6 m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 F1+ 1 /Ă&#x2020;; 6m 5 1 $ I/ Ă&#x2020;6' !. 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 1 /E 8 ! m ! + 5m 5 Ă&#x2020;81 >5 Ă&#x2020;8/ Ă&#x2020;-1 +9 2 C8& 61 ? 8
m + 5 Ă&#x2020;81 5 5$ 6
-3.2
F1 19.8. $ 1 / ?G $ ? 1Ă&#x2021; 1% 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Ă&#x2020;1I 6' 7+! F1C$ 1 /Ă&#x2020;; $ 10 1 / $ 1
$ 5 0.5% 0 Ă&#x2020; / 8 m! 6m 5 1 Ă&#x2020;1IF1 m+# 1 / m +
-3.9 -4.2 -4.5 -5.0 -5.1 -6.3
8.6
t depreciates
Baht appreciates Š ChartingTHAILANDâ&#x201E;˘
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ChartingTHAILAND™ CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILAND™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.