Alexandria Area Retail Trade Analysis

EXTENSION CENTER FOR COMMUNITY VITALITY

2016 Retail Trade Analysis Alexandria

A TOOL USED TO MEASURE THE ECONOMIC HEALTH OF THE LOCAL RETAIL ECONOMY

Authored by Ryan Pesch, University of Minnesota Extension

PROGRAM SPONSORS: ALEXANDRIA AREA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION

2016 Retail Trade Analysis Alexandria

A TOOL USED TO MEASURE THE ECONOMIC HEALTH OF THE LOCAL RETAIL ECONOMY

September, 2018

Authored by Ryan Pesch, University of Minnesota Extension Educator

Report Reviewers: Nicole Fernholz, AAEDC Director Partners/Sponsors:

© 2018 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer.

In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to the Extension Store at 800‐876‐8636.

2015 Retail Trade Analysis

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Retail Trade Analysis for Alexandria, MN CONTINUED STEADY GROWTH The Minnesota Department. of Revenue releases sales tax information each spring for the year that ended about 15 months earlier. The latest information indicates that Alexandria’s taxable retail and service sales increased 12% between 2013 and 2016, reaching a total of $383 million.

Taxable Sales Changes by Category (in Millions) 2013 to 2016 +$7.04 +$5.17

+$5.12 +$4.06 +$3.05 +$0.81 +$0.79

+$0.25

+$0.39

+$0.26 -$0.08

-$0.47

-$3.70

The largest increase in dollar sales was in the eating and drinking business category that includes restaurants and bars, reaching estimated total taxable sales of $53.5 million in 2016. General Merchandise stores are also the largest contributors of taxable sales in Alexandria’s economy, with 25% of all taxable sales. Note: The data in this summary are not adjusted for inflation.

Sales of general merchandise dropped significantly but the category that sells groceries and liquor continued their growth along with gas and convenience stores. Building materials and general merchandise pull in the greatest number of shoppers.

© 2015 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-625-8233.

Printed on recycled and recyclable paper with at least 10 percent postconsumer waste material.

Comparisons with Other Area Cities There are several ways to measure performance other than dollars of 4.50 sales. Economists expect cities of larger 4.00 populations to have more sales since 3.50 their potential customer base is larger.

3.00 A way to compensate for that in a retail 2.50 trade analysis is to measure the pull 2.00 factor, which compares the local 1.50 taxable sales per capita to that of the 1.00 state. A pull factor index higher than 0.50 1.0 usually indicates that businesses 0.00 are pulling in customers from outside their community. A lower pull factor Alexandria Bemidji usually indicates residents are leaving Detroit Lakes Fergus Falls the community to make purchases.

Alexandria’s overall pull factor has been very consistent since 2013. Per capita taxable sales in 2016 were estimated to be $28,204 locally and $9,089 for Minnesota for a pull factor of 3.09.

Pull Factors

Comparing Alexandria’s Performance to Similar Minnesota Cities The following tables provide information on retail sales by selected merchandise categories.

"Expected sales" is a standard to which actual performance can be compared. In calculating expected sales, population, income, and typical "pulling power" characteristics are taken into account. The following table calculates pulling power using a similar non-metro city list based on population + or - 30% of Alexandria’s so it includes Fergus Falls, Marshall, New Ulm, and Red Wing among others. Expected sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength.

Selected Categories

Expected Sales (millions)

Actual Sales (millions)

Variance As % of Expected

Trade Area’s Estimated Customer Gain (or Loss)

Building Materials

$28.13

$71.66

+154.7%

21,003

Personal Services

$4.52

$2.75

-39.1%

-5,314

General Merchandise

$28.28

$95.51

+237.8%

32,276

Clothing

$4.93

$2.84

-42.4%

-5,760

Total Taxable Retail & Service

$256.88

$382.87

+49.0%

6,658

© 2015 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-625-8233.

Printed on recycled and recyclable paper with at least 10 percent postconsumer waste material.

THE BOTTOM LINE Alexandria has a very strong retail and service sector. Its 592 firms bring in 49% more sales than expected in 2016 accounting for the size of the community. The pull factor has grown from 2.74 at the end of the great recession to 3.09 today.

When compared to other peer cities, some opportunities present themselves even though the community has strong sales. Clothing and personal services—which includes hair salons and repair services such as auto—are the weakest categories with 42 and 39 percent less than expected respectively. Alexandria is clearly drawing in shoppers and underperforming categories have an opportunity to take advantage of this traffic.

The full retail trade analysis report will show how various retail categories have changed since 2003 so individual businesses can see how they performed compared to the whole community.

The report is also useful for exploring expansion opportunities.

Author: Ryan Pesch, University of Minnesota Extension, Community Economics

THE EXTENSION CENTER FOR COMMUNITY VITALITY makes a difference by engaging Minnesotans to strengthen the social, civic, economic and technological capacity of their communities. To read more, visit: www.extension.umn.edu/community

© 2015 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-625-8233.

Printed on recycled and recyclable paper with at least 10 percent postconsumer waste material.

Alexandria Retail Trade Overview Total Taxable and Gross Retail Sales The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for Alexandria from 2003 through 2016. Without inflation adjustments, taxable sales in Alexandria increased 33.2 percent from 2009 to 2016, while the number of firms rose 0.5 percent. Statewide, taxable sales increased 6.2 percent over the same time period and the number of firms fell 11.3 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure.

The table also presents sales data in constant 2016 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in 2016. For example, in 2003, taxable sales in Alexandria totaled $313.82 million, an amount worth $407.56 million in 2016 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales grew 19.3 percent between 2009 and 2016. Constant dollar taxable sales increased 19.9 percent over the same time period.

Current Dollars

Constant 2016 Dollars

Year

Estimated Population

Gross Sales* ($millions)

Taxable Sales ($millions)

Gross Sales* ($millions)

Taxable Sales ($millions)

2003

10,165

$579.74

$313.82

$752.91

$407.56

513

$30,873

3.46

2004

10,231

$560.78

$281.27

$709.85

$356.03

509

$27,491

2.97

2005

10,618

$706.56

$373.56

$861.65

$455.56

492

$35,182

3.69

2006

10,852

$789.19

$395.84

$939.51

$471.24

499

$36,477

3.80

2007

11,743

$832.46

$426.32

$956.85

$490.02

526

$36,304

3.73

2008

11,814

$872.57

$433.49

$969.52

$481.66

594

$36,693

3.84

2009

11,854

$619.97

$287.35

$688.85

$319.28

589

$24,241

2.71

2010

11,070

$551.19

$245.06

$605.71

$269.29

525

$22,137

2.45

2011

12,920

$691.23

$301.94

$727.61

$317.83

571

$23,370

2.51

2012

13,008

$737.08

$323.91

$759.88

$333.92

578

$24,900

2.58

2013

13,045

$779.55

$342.20

$795.46

$349.19

586

$26,233

3.04

2014

13,182

$807.43

$352.74

$815.58

$356.31

570

$26,759

3.05

2015 2016

13,340 13,575

$807.73 $821.96

$368.25 $382.87

$815.89 $821.96

$371.97 $382.87

574 592

$27,605 $28,204

3.06 3.09

'09 to '16

14.5%

32.6%

33.2%

19.3%

19.9%

0.5%

16.3%

14.0%

3 yr Change '13 to '16

4.1%

5.4%

11.9%

3.3%

9.6%

1.0%

7.5%

1.4%

Number Per Capita of Firms Sales

Pull Factor

7 yr Change

*Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy.

Alexandria: Retail/Service Sales in Constant Dollars Total Sales: Gross & Taxable $1,200.0

$Millions

$1,000.0 $800.0 $600.0 $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 Year Constant $ Gross Sales

Constant $ Taxable Sales

Alexandria Selected Components of Change*, 2013 to 2016 Taxable Sales 2013

Taxable Sales 2016

Vehicles & Parts

$23,147,032

$28,320,378

+$5,173,346

+22.35%

Furniture Stores

$11,096,330

$11,909,418

+$813,088

+7.33%

$7,771,951

$8,565,358

+$793,407

+10.21%

Building Materials

$66,531,902

$71,656,238

+$5,124,336

+7.70%

Food, Groceries

$15,228,957

$19,284,814

+$4,055,857

+26.63%

Health, Personal Stores

$4,958,131

$5,211,574

+$253,443

+5.11%

Gas/Convenience Stores

$7,611,551

$10,658,780

+$3,047,229

+40.03%

Clothing

$2,579,594

$2,840,663

+$261,069

+10.12%

Leisure Goods

$7,620,648

$7,145,871

-$474,777

-6.23%

General Merchandise Stores

$99,212,127

$95,514,701

-$3,697,426

-3.73%

Miscellaneous Retail

$11,173,740

$11,095,858

-$77,882

-0.70%

Accommodations

$7,450,917

$7,840,923

+$390,006

+5.23%

Eating & Drinking

$46,464,736

$53,505,858

+$7,041,122

+15.15%

$342,204,261

$382,865,345

+$40,661,084

+11.88%

Selected Categories

Electronics

Total Retail and Services Sales

Dollar Change

Percent Change

* Figures not adjusted for inflation.

Taxable Sales Changes by Category (in Millions) 2013 to 2016 +$7.04 +$5.17

+$5.12 +$4.06 +$3.05 +$0.81 +$0.79

+$0.25

+$0.39

+$0.26 -$0.08

-$0.47

-$3.70

Parts

Furn.

Elec. Bldg.Mat Food

Health C-Store Clothing

Leis.

GenMer. Misc.

Hotel

Eat

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria Taxable Sales

This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor.

NA=Suppressed Data

Pull Factor

7.4% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $2086

30.0

4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

$ Millions

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 03

06

09

12

Pull factor

Vehicles & Parts

15

Furniture 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

3.1% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $877

6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00

Pull factor

$ Millions

Stores in the Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers subsector retail motor vehicles and parts from fixed point-of-sale locations. This can include automobiles, campers, RV's, boats, out-board motors, sailboats, snowmobiles, motorcycles, and all terrain vehicles. Onroad vehicle sellers do not collect sales tax but rather Motor Vehicle Tax. Sales tax is collected on boats, snowmobiles, dirt bikes, ATVs, and parts.

1.00

Stores in the Furniture and Home Furnishings subsector retail new furniture and home furnishings from fixed point-of-sale locations. This can include bed stores, office furniture, carpet stores, window treatments, lamps, framing shops, linens, and kitchenware.

0.00 0304050607080910111213141516

Electronics 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

35.00 $ Millions

30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 03 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 16

2.2%

Pull factor

40.00

of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $631

Stores in the Electronics and Appliance subsector retail new electronics and appliances from point-of-sale locations. This can include household appliances, sewing machines, vacuum cleaners, computers, cameras, telephones, cell phones, televisions, and radios.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data Taxable Sales

Pull Factor

18.7%

80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $5279

6.00 5.00 4.00

Pull factor

$ Millions

Building Materials

3.00 2.00 1.00

Stores in the Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers subsector retail new building material and garden equipment and supplies. This includes home improvement centers and stores that sell paint, wallpaper, ceramic tile, fencing, windows, roofing, siding, hardware, and plumbing.

0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

25.0

3.00

20.0

2.50 2.00

15.0

1.50 10.0

1.00

5.0

5.0% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $1421

Pull factor

$ Millions

Groceries & Beverage Stores

0.50

Stores in the Food and Beverage Stores subsector usually retail food and beverages merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations. This can include grocery stores, liquor stores, bakeries, candy shops, butcher stores, meat markets, and produce markets.

0.00

0.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

6.00

4.00

5.00

3.50 3.00

4.00

2.50 2.00

3.00

1.50 1.00

2.00 1.00

0.50 0.00

0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1.4% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $384

Pull factor

$ Millions

Health, Pharmacy, Optical

Stores in the Health and Personal Care Stores subsector retail health and personal care merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations. This includes drug stores, health supplement stores, hearing aid stores, optical goods stores, cosmetic stores, medical supply stores,

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria Taxable Sales

This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data

Pull Factor

Gas/Convenience Stores 12.0

4.00 3.50

10.0

3.00

8.0

2.50

6.0

2.00 1.50

4.0

1.00

2.0

Pull factor

$ Millions

2.8% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $785

0.50

0.0

0.00

Stores in the Gasoline Stations subsector group establishments retailing automotive fuels (e.g., gasoline, diesel fuel, gasohol) and automotive oils and retailing these products in combination with convenience store items. This includes truck stops, C stores, marine service stations, and ordinary gas stations that sell automotive supplies.

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0.7% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $209

Clothing & Accessories 6.00

10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

$ Millions

4.00 3.00 2.00

Pull factor

5.00

Stores in the Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores subsector retailing new clothing and clothing accessories. Besides clothing stores it includes shops that sell jewelry, shoes, luggage, handbags, wigs, ties, bridal gowns, furs, uniforms, T-shirts, baby clothing, swimsuits, and lingerie.

1.00 0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

1.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $526 3.00

9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pull factor

$ Millions

Sporting Goods/Hobbies

Stores in the Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores subsector are engaged in retailing and providing expertise on use of sporting equipment or other specific leisure activities, such as needlework and musical instruments. Newstands also fit in this subsector.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria Taxable Sales

This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data

Pull Factor

General Merchandise Stores 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

100.0 $ Millions

80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

Pull factor

120.0

24.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $7036 Stores in the General Merchandise subsector retail new general merchandise and are unique in that they have the equipment and staff capable of retailing a large variety of goods from a single location. This includes department stores, superstores, dollar stores,and variety stores.

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

2.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $817

14.0

3.50

12.0

3.00

10.0

2.50

8.0

2.00

6.0

1.50

4.0

1.00

2.0

0.50

0.0

Pull factor

$ Millions

Miscellaneous & Previously Unreported

Establishments such as florists, used merchandise stores, and pet and pet supply stores as well as other store retailers. Also, if a community had fewer than 4 stores in a previous sector, it was included in this category. This may cause unrealistically high Pull Factors.

0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0.3% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $82 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00

$ Millions

1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pull factor

Non-Store Retail

Mail-order houses, vending machine operators, home delivery sales, door-to-door sales, party plan sales, electronic shoppin, and sales through portable stands (except food). Establishments engage in direct sale (nonstore) of products, such as home heating oil dealers and newspaper delivery are included in this subsector. In the non-store retail, the pull factor had a dramatic jump from 2012 to 2013 because on-line sales to companies outside of Minnesota were removed from the total state sales in this category.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria This page looks at several merchandise or service categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data Taxable Sales

Pull Factor

Amusement 7.0

2.50

6.0 4.0

1.50

3.0

1.00

2.0

Pull factor

2.00

5.0 $ Millions

1.6% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $449

0.50

1.0 0.0

Establishments include casinos, bowling lanes, water parks, amusement parks, arcades, bingo halls, golf courses, ski slopes, marinas, dance or fitness centers, recreational clubs, ice rinks, swimming pools, roller rinks, and the like.

0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Accommodations 16.0

3.00

14.0

2.00

10.0

1.50

8.0 6.0

1.00

4.0

Pull factor

2.50

12.0 $ Millions

2.0% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $578

These busineeses provide provide lodging or shortterm accommodations for travelers, vacationers, and others. Included are hotels, motels, lodges, bed & breakfasts, campgrounds, fraternities, boarding houses, and dormitories.

0.50

2.0

0.00

0.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

14.0% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $3941

60.0

3.00

50.0

2.50

40.0

2.00

30.0

1.50

20.0

1.00

10.0

0.50 0.00

0.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pull factor

$ Millions

Eating & Drinking

These businesses sell food at full-service or limitedservice establishments. It includes cafeterias, bagel shops, ice cream parlors, snack bars, food service contractors, caterers, lunch wagons, and street vendors. It also includes bars, taverns, and nightclubs.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria

Taxable Sales

This page looks at several categories to chart the multiyear trend in taxable sales and pull factor.

NA=Suppressed Data

Pull Factor

2.4% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $663

5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Pull factor

$ Millions

Repair Businesses

The Repair and Maintenance subsector restore machinery, equipment, and other products to working order. It does not include plumbers & electricitians.It does include repairs to autos, cameras, radio, television, computers, copiers, appliances, lawn mowers, specialized equipment, small engines, furnitures, shoes, guns, etc.

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0.7% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2016 Sales per capita are $203

Personal Service Providers 4.00

2.50

3.50 $ Millions

2.50

1.50

2.00 1.00

1.50 1.00

0.50

0.50 0.00

0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Pull factor

2.00

3.00

Services performed include: personal care services; barber shops & beauty parlors; death care services; laundry and drycleaning services; and a wide range of other personal services, such as pet care (except veterinary) services, photofinishing services, temporary parking services, and dating services.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Alexandria from 2003 to 2016* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.

Pull Factors

Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (1 of 2) 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Vehicles & Parts 3.92 4.05 3.51 3.64 3.71 3.07 3.47 3.66 3.97 3.83 4.08 3.99

Furniture 3.91 3.98 4.40 4.24 4.85 2.88 2.89 3.12 3.48 3.35 3.32 3.24

Electronics 0.75 6.12 6.80 7.96 2.23 2.28 1.98 1.85 2.01 2.35 2.11 2.16

Building Materials 1.72 4.23 4.22 4.23 4.69 5.08 5.01 5.31 5.38 5.33 5.40 5.27

Food 2.61 1.83 1.87 1.86 1.84 1.97 1.69 1.82 1.88 1.93 2.03 2.05

Health & Gas/Conv Personal en 1.61 3.05 1.52 2.25 2.29 2.53 2.50 2.02 3.18 2.14 2.38 2.27 3.08 1.95 2.99 2.30 3.14 2.96 3.43 3.26 3.14 3.30 3.04 3.47

Apparel 5.00 4.22 4.61 4.13 3.70 0.92 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.13 1.18 1.19

Leisure Goods 2.08 1.48 1.34 1.48 1.54 1.49 2.07 2.22 2.43 2.39 2.20 2.28

NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, snowmobiles, trailers, tires, and parts.

Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves.

Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods.

Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, and garden centers.

Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores.

Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores.

Gas Stations/Convenience Store: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items.

Clothing: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores.

Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to how businesses are classified.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Alexandria from 2003 to 2016* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.

Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (2 of 2) 9.00 8.00 7.00

Pull Factors

6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gen. Merch.

Misc.

Store

8.29 7.71 7.37 7.27 7.78 6.43 7.32 7.33 7.20 7.11 7.02 6.99

2.91 2.73 2.41 2.65 2.81 3.08 2.78 2.70 2.96 2.90 2.89 2.84

NonStore Retail 0.37 0.38 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.27 0.24 0.75 0.74 0.88 0.74

Amusement

Lodging

Eating & Drinking

Repair

Personal Services

2.09 2.28 1.91 1.78 1.72 1.89 1.60 1.51 1.59 1.51 1.61 1.44

1.59 1.55 1.21 1.33 1.72 2.53 1.26 1.54 1.63 2.74 2.19 1.42

2.40 2.09 2.05 2.31 2.41 1.98 2.21 2.24 2.49 2.38 2.35 2.42

4.67 3.46 2.66 2.57 2.62 3.07 2.58 2.73 2.66 2.59 2.51 2.66

1.43 1.42 1.37 1.72 2.05 1.85 1.60 1.48 1.64 1.36 1.18 1.26

NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores.

Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies. (see Suppressed Data in Cautions section) Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands.

Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos.

Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, and RV parks.

Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return items to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances.

Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, and kennels *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to how businesses are classified.

Comparison with Competing Centers Alexandria Pull Factors 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Fiscal Year

Alexandria Detroit Lakes

Bemidji Fergus Falls

Information about competing trade centers can provide a useful means of comparison when assessing a community's retail trade sector. Comparison towns were selected based on geographic proximity, relative size and availability of data. Some caution is warranted in the interpretation of these comparisons however, since retail sales data is provided for only a limited number of towns and cities.

Comparison with Competing Trade Centers, 2016

Town Alexandria Bemidji Detroit Lakes Fergus Falls

Gross Sales Taxable Sales Number of Pop ($millions) ($millions) Firms 13,575 15,119 9,380 13,652

$821.96 $797.07 $502.59 $531.74

$382.87 $347.21 $218.13 $200.74

592 495 312 343

Per Capita Pull Factor (Taxable Taxable Sales) Sales $28,204 $22,965 $23,254 $14,704

3.09 2.51 2.54 1.61

Rural Community Trade Area Analysis Alexandria The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Expected sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating expected sales, population and income characteristics, as well as the typical "pulling power" of similar rural communities are taken into account. Expected sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength.

Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited.

Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects could be identified and built upon.

Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2016 Variance Between Actual & Expected

Merchandise Group

Expected Actual Sales Sales ($millions) ($millions)

In Dollars (millions)

As % of Expected

Trade Area Percent of Pop. Gain or Number Total Loss of Firms Sales

Vehicles & Parts

$14.70

$28.32

+$13.62

+92.7%

12,582

19

7.4%

Furniture Stores

$7.62

$11.91

+$4.29

+56.4%

7,655

10

3.1%

Electronics

$8.21

$8.57

+$0.36

+4.4%

593

11

2.2%

Building Materials

$28.13

$71.66

+$43.52

+154.7%

21,003

18

18.7%

Food, Groceries

$19.51

$19.28

-$0.22

-1.1%

-155

11

5.0%

Health, Personal Stores

$3.54

$5.21

+$1.67

+47.0%

6,386

14

1.4%

Gas/Covenience Stores

$6.36

$10.66

+$4.30

+67.7%

9,187

13

2.8%

Clothing

$4.93

$2.84

-$2.09

-42.4%

-5,760

25

0.7%

Leisure Goods

$6.49

$7.15

+$0.66

+10.1%

1,374

16

1.9%

$28.28

$95.51

+$67.24

+237.8%

32,276

9

24.9%

Miscellaneous Retail

$8.07

+$3.02

+37.4%

5,081

45

2.9%

Amusement & Recreation

$8.78

$11.10 $6.09

-$2.69

-30.6%

-4,156

9

1.6%

Accommodations

$11.41

$7.84

-$3.57

-31.3%

-4,245

14

2.0%

Eating & Drinking Places

$45.70

$53.51

+$7.81

+17.1%

2,320

62

14.0%

Repair, Maintenance

$7.01

$9.00

+$2.00

+28.5%

3,869

37

2.4%

Personal Services, Laundry

$4.52

$2.75

-$1.77

-39.1%

-5,314

72

0.7%

$256.88

$382.87

+$125.99

+49.0%

6,658

General Merchandise Stores

Total Taxable Retail & Service*

592

100.0%

*All retail and service categories are included in Total Sales, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total Sales.

Summary of Alexandria Retail Trade (Rural) The chart below depicts the percentage amount Alexandria's actual sales were above or below expected sales in 2016 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 11 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the performance in similar-sized cities in Greater Minnesota. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a 237.8 percent surplus. Overall, Alexandria had a retail sales surplus of 49.0 percent in 2016.

It is important to note that variations in a city's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular city to deviate substantially from expected sales.

It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects.

Percentage Above or Below Expected Sales, 2016 Vehicles & Parts

+92.7%

Furniture Stores

+56.4%

Electronics

+4.4%

Building Materials

+154.7%

Food, Groceries

-1.1%

Health, Personal Stores

+47.0%

Gas/Covenience Stores Clothing

+67.7% -42.4%

Leisure Goods

+10.1%

General Merchandise Stores

+237.8%

Miscellaneous Retail

+37.4%

Amusement & Recreation

-30.6%

Accommodations

-31.3%

Eating & Drinking Places

+17.1%

Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry

+28.5% -39.1%

Total Taxable Retail & Service*

+49.0% -100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Alexandria Retail Trade Performance in Dollars (Rural) The chart below depicts the dollar amount Alexandria's actual sales were above or below expected sales in 2016 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 11 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the performance in similar-sized Minnesota cities. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a $67.2 million surplus. Overall, Alexandria had a retail sales surplus of $126.0 million in 2016.

It is important to note that variations in a city's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular city to deviate substantially from expected sales.

It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects.

Millions of $ Above or Below Expected Sales, 2016 Vehicles & Parts

+$13.62

Furniture Stores

+$4.29

Electronics

+$0.36

Building Materials

+$43.52

Food, Groceries

-$0.22

Health, Personal Stores

+$1.67

Gas/Covenience Stores

+$4.30

Clothing

-$2.09

Leisure Goods

+$0.66

General Merchandise Stores

+$67.24

Miscellaneous Retail

+$3.02

Amusement & Recreation

-$2.69

Accommodations

-$3.57

Eating & Drinking Places

+$7.81

Repair, Maintenance

+$2.00

Personal Services, Laundry

-$1.77 -$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2016 Index of "Pulling Power" Cities Outside the 7 County Metro Area with Populations between 9,300 & 17,400 (Range: Population of Alexandria +/- ~ 30%.)

(11 Cities) Pull Factors Vehicles, Furniture Parts Population Stores

Lodging

16,545

2.62

0.82

0.08

2.42

1.09

0.75

0.91

0.16

0.53

2.48

1.12

0.25

1.16

1.16

1.28

0.67

Buffalo

16,119

1.23

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.16

1.03

0.92

0.16

0.26

2.98

11.19

0.73

0.00

1.04

1.08

0.56

1.17

Bemidji

15,119

3.67

1.84

0.94

4.98

1.67

3.08

2.00

2.88

1.75

5.35

3.09

0.54

1.96

2.16

2.79

0.54

2.45

Hutchinson

14,146

0.69

1.58

3.58

3.44

1.28

1.46

1.81

0.22

0.83

3.33

0.82

0.77

0.52

1.21

0.79

0.35

1.46

Marshall

13,799

1.81

1.67

0.00

4.24

1.31

0.10

1.83

0.57

0.97

3.01

1.15

0.28

0.89

1.43

1.08

0.27

1.51

Brainerd

13,679

1.78

0.00

0.81

1.00

1.09

1.97

1.62

0.26

0.49

0.00

2.29

0.30

0.95

1.25

0.54

0.49

0.80

Fergus Falls

13,652

3.26

0.73

0.64

2.21

1.13

0.86

1.58

0.42

0.50

4.72

0.97

0.30

1.12

1.16

0.92

0.42

1.49

Alexandria

13,575

3.99

3.27

2.18

5.27

2.05

3.08

3.47

1.19

2.28

7.07

2.66

1.44

1.43

2.42

2.66

1.26

2.86

New Ulm

13,539

1.01

0.00

0.29

2.82

2.00

0.00

0.61

0.43

0.21

1.94

3.46

0.58

1.24

1.04

1.29

0.45

1.19

Monticello

13,409

1.91

0.48

1.03

3.07

1.24

1.19

1.95

0.00

0.02

4.11

2.59

0.89

0.47

1.90

1.40

0.38

1.63

Grand Rapids

11,435

3.36

2.36

1.66

3.99

1.60

1.63

2.32

0.71

1.17

4.89

1.07

0.35

1.97

1.46

1.65

0.32

2.00

2.30

1.16

1.02

3.04

1.42

1.38

1.73

0.64

0.82

General Merch.

3.63

Misc.

2.76

Amusement

0.58

1.06

1.48

Repair, Maint.

1.21

Clothing

Red Wing

Food

Health, Gas & Personal Conven.

Taxable $ Pull Factor

Eating & Drinking

Unadjusted Average: *

Building Materials

Personal Services

Leisure Goods

City

Electronics

1.41

0.52

1.62

* Raw averages; not adjusted for special circumstances. For example, in cities with a college student population that is large relative to overall population, these pull factors may understate the relative strength of the retail sector. While college students are counted as part of the city population, in general they spend less than other city residents in many retail categories. Most Pull Factor outliers were eliminated for calculating typical pull factors used in the expected sales formula.

Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2016 Index of "Pulling Power" Cities Outside the 7 County Metro Area with Populations between 9,300 & 17,400 (Range: Population of Alexandria +/- ~ 30%.)

(11 Cities) Rankings City Red Wing Buffalo Bemidji Hutchinson Marshall Brainerd Fergus Falls Alexandria New Ulm Monticello Grand Rapids

Vehicles, Furniture Population Parts Stores #1 #5 #6 #2 #9 #9 #3 #2 #3 #4 # 11 #5 #5 #7 #4 #6 #8 #9 #7 #4 #7 #8 #1 #1 #9 # 10 #9 # 10 #6 #8 # 11 #3 #2

Electronics #9 # 10 #5 #1 # 10 #6 #7 #2 #8 #4 #3

Building Materials #8 # 11 #2 #5 #3 # 10 #9 #1 #7 #6 #4

Food # 11 #8 #3 #6 #5 # 10 #9 #1 #2 #7 #4

Health, Gasoline Personal Stations Clothing #9 # 10 #9 #7 #9 # 10 #1 #3 #1 #5 #6 #8 # 10 #5 #4 #3 #7 #7 #8 #8 #6 #2 #1 #2 # 11 # 11 #5 #6 #4 # 11 #4 #2 #3

Leisure Goods #6 #9 #2 #5 #4 #8 #7 #1 # 10 # 11 #3

General Merch. #9 #8 #2 #6 #7 # 11 #4 #1 # 10 #5 #3

Misc. #8 #1 #3 # 11 #7 #6 # 10 #4 #2 #5 #9

Amusement # 11 #4 #6 #3 # 10 #9 #8 #1 #5 #2 #7

Lodging #5 # 11 #2 #9 #8 #7 #6 #3 #4 # 10 #1

Above are all communities in the population range listed in the title with data available by merchandise category. Adjustments for special circumstances may be necessary for accurate comparisons.

Eating & Drinking #9 # 10 #2 #7 #5 #6 #8 #1 # 11 #3 #4

Repair, Maint. #6 #8 #1 # 10 #7 # 11 #9 #2 #5 #4 #3

Personal Services #2 #3 #4 #9 # 11 #5 #7 #1 #6 #8 # 10

Taxable $ Pull Factor #8 # 10 #2 #7 #5 # 11 #6 #1 #9 #4 #3

Alexandria & Douglas County Comparison, 2016 It is important to review the retail performance for the whole county and not just the city in isolation. For example, it is common for county seat towns to have above-average retail performance, while the county overall has a leakage of sales. This is usually because the county seat city doesn't have the critical mass of retail to attract the purchases of everyone in the county. By analyzing county data, city business people can develop strategies to recapture some of the sales being lost to other cities. For counties that have a local option sales tax, the analysis of county sales is extremely important, since lost sales are lost tax dollars. A thorough analysis of county sales can help county officials develop more meaningful economic development plans aimed at recapturing the lost sales.

Share of County Sales

The table below shows retail sales and number of firms by merchandise category for Alexandria and Douglas County in 2016. Alexandria accounted for 50 percent of the county's firms and 78 percent of the county's sales.

22% 78%

Alexandria

Rest of Douglas County

Sales by Merchandise Category, Alexandria & Douglas County, 2016 Alexandria

Merchandise Category

Douglas County

Taxable Sales Number of ($millions) Firms

City's Share of County Total

Taxable Sales Number of ($millions) Firms

Sales

Firms

Vehicles & Parts

$28.32

19

$35.63

35

79.5%

54.3%

Furniture Stores

$11.91

10

$15.98

16

74.5%

62.5%

$8.57

11

$8.63

14

99.3%

78.6%

Building Materials

$71.66

18

$79.05

28

90.6%

64.3%

Food, Groceries

$19.28

11

$26.28

39

73.4%

28.2%

Health, Personal Stores

$5.21

14

$6.73

17

77.4%

82.4%

Gas/Convenience Stores

$10.66

13

$15.43

26

69.1%

50.0%

Clothing

$2.84

25

$2.86

28

99.4%

89.3%

Leisure Goods

$7.15

16

$8.63

37

82.8%

43.2%

General Merchandise

$95.51

9

$97.77

15

97.7%

60.0%

Miscellaneous Retail

$11.10

45

$12.62

114

87.9%

39.5%

Non-Store Retailers

$1.12

23

$3.20

61

34.9%

37.7%

Amusement & Recreation

$6.09

9

$9.76

29

62.4%

31.0%

Accommodations

$7.84

14

$25.58

59

30.7%

23.7%

$53.51

62

$68.97

99

77.6%

62.6%

$9.00

37

$2.75

72

$12.34 $3.51

94 114

73.0% 78.4%

39.4% 63.2%

$471.99

1,185

78.0%

50.0%

Electronics

Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Service, Laundry Total Sales

$368.25

592

Douglas County Retail Trade Overview Total Taxable and Gross Retail Sales The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for Douglas County from 2003 through 2016. Taxable sales in Douglas County declined 1.8 percent from 2009 to 2016, while the number of firms fell 2.1 percent. Statewide, taxable sales decreased 9.3 percent over the same time period and the number of firms fell 0.7 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure.

The table also presents sales data in constant 2016 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in 2016. For example, in 2003, taxable sales in Douglas County totaled $404.08 million, an amount worth $524.78 million in 2016 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales grew 9.9 percent between 2009 and 2016. Constant dollar taxable sales decreased 8.4 percent over the same time period.

Current Dollars

Constant 2016 Dollars Gross Sales* ($millions)

Taxable Sales ($millions)

$404.08

$964.89

$524.78

1,201

$11,844

1.33

$457.05

$1,053.99

$578.55

1,176

$13,199

1.43

$895.47

$473.91

$1,092.04

$577.94

1,177

$13,487

1.42

35,467

$960.59

$481.42

$1,143.55

$573.12

1,155

$13,574

1.41

36,075

$1,017.58

$511.73

$1,169.63

$588.20

1,201

$14,185

1.46

2008

36,258

$1,062.87

$508.83

$1,180.97

$565.37

1,237

$14,034

1.47

2009

36,390

$904.17

$463.56

$1,004.63

$515.06

1,210

$12,739

1.42

2010

35,988

$842.68

$393.76

$926.02

$432.70

1,187

$10,941

1.21

2011

36,240

$920.71

$403.56

$969.17

$424.80

1,175

$11,136

1.19

2012

36,412

$984.48

$429.96

$1,014.92

$443.26

1,146

$11,808

1.22

2013

36,529

$1,051.28

$453.87

$1,072.74

$463.13

1,211

$12,425

1.44

2014

36,789

$1,075.12

$440.01

$1,085.97

$444.46

1,174

$11,960

1.36

2015

37,103

$1,098.82

$473.35

$1,109.92

$478.14

1,163

$12,758

1.41

Year

Estimated Population

2003

34,117

$742.97

2004

34,628

$832.65

2005

35,138

2006 2007

Gross Sales* Taxable Sales ($millions) ($millions)

Number Per Capita of Firms Sales

Pull Factor

2016

37,103

$1,103.92

$471.99

$1,103.92

$471.99

1,185

$12,721

1.39

7 yr Change '09 to '16

2.0%

22.1%

1.8%

9.9%

-8.4%

-2.1%

-0.1%

-2.2%

3 yr Change '13 to '16

1.6%

5.0%

4.0%

2.9%

1.9%

-2.1%

2.4%

-3.5%

*Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy.

Douglas County: Retail/Service Sales in Constant Dollars $Millions

Total Sales: Gross & Taxable

$1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0

Year Constant $ Gross Sales

Constant $ Taxable Sales

Douglas County Selected Components of Change*, 2013 to 2016 Taxable Sales 2013

Category

Taxable Sales 2016

Dollar Change

Percent Change

Vehicles & Parts

$28,613,484

$35,627,389

+$7,013,905

+24.51%

Furniture Stores

$15,346,562

$15,984,750

+$638,188

+4.16%

$7,864,325

$8,628,580

+$764,255

+9.72%

Building Materials

$72,139,972

$79,054,554

+$6,914,582

+9.58%

Food, Groceries

$21,641,628

$26,275,695

+$4,634,067

+21.41%

Health, Personal Stores

$6,671,656

$6,734,463

+$62,807

+0.94%

Gas/Convenience Store

$14,057,580

$15,429,078

+$1,371,498

+9.76%

Clothing

$2,598,733

$2,858,103

+$259,370

+9.98%

Leisure Goods

$8,629,984

$8,627,073

-$2,911

-0.03%

$101,735,385

$97,765,956

-$3,969,429

-3.90%

Miscellaneous Retail

$12,763,444

$12,621,923

-$141,521

-1.11%

Accommodations

$26,878,588

$25,576,545

-$1,302,043

-4.84%

Eating & Drinking Places

$64,941,800

$68,970,758

+$4,028,958

+6.20%

$453,865,508

$471,992,254

+$18,126,746

+3.99%

Electronics

General Merchandise Stores

Total Retail and Services Sales * Figures not adjusted for inflation.

Dollar Changes by Category (in Millions) 2013 - 2016 +$7.01

+$6.91 +$4.63

+$0.64

+$4.03

+$1.37

+$0.76

+$0.06

+$0.26 -$0.00

-$0.14 -$1.30

-$3.97

Parts

Furn.

Elect.

Bldg.

Food

Health C-Store Clothes

Leis.

GenMer.

Misc.

Accom.

Eat

Pull Factors By Merchandise Category Douglas County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Douglas County from 2003 to 2016* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.

Pull Factors by NAICS Merchandise Category (1 of 2) 3.00 2.50 2.00 Pull Factors

1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Vehicles & Parts 1.74 1.77 1.37 1.47 1.59 1.56 1.54 1.65 1.75 1.75 1.84 1.84

Furniture 1.27 1.30 1.44 1.39 1.79 1.93 1.52 1.47 1.72 1.71 1.58 1.59

Electronics 0.67 2.33 2.71 2.61 0.78 0.72 0.72 0.67 0.73 0.85 0.77 0.80

Building Materials 0.91 1.60 1.50 1.45 1.59 1.74 1.92 2.06 2.08 2.10 2.14 2.13

Food 1.03 0.91 0.84 0.83 0.86 0.91 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.02

Health & Personal 0.63 0.64 0.91 1.02 1.31 1.30 1.33 1.37 1.51 1.52 1.43 1.44

Gas & Conven.

1.32 1.30 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.43 1.47 1.67 1.95 1.93 1.76 1.84

Clothing 1.50 1.29 1.52 1.35 1.21 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.44

Leisure Goods 0.68 0.53 0.61 0.63 0.67 0.66 0.83 0.89 0.98 0.98 0.96 1.01

NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, snowmobiles, trailers, tires, and parts.

Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves.

Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods.

Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, and garden centers.

Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores.

Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores.

Gas and Convenience Store: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items.

Clothing: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores.

Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS.

Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Douglas County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Douglas County from 2003 to 2015* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.

Pull Factors by NAICS Merchandise Category (2 of 2)

3.00 2.50 2.00

Pull Factors

1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gen. Merch.

2.47 2.33 2.42 2.41 2.59 2.71 2.69 2.69 2.64 2.60 2.57 2.62

Misc.

Store 1.30 1.17 1.05 0.99 1.07 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.21 1.19 1.17 1.18

Non-Store Retail 0.32 0.24 0.18 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.68 0.61 0.79 0.78

Amusement 1.09 1.18 1.04 0.94 0.89 0.91 0.86 0.83 0.87 0.85 0.87 0.84

Lodging 2.17 2.43 1.86 1.85 2.02 1.92 1.85 2.10 2.10 2.01 1.78 1.70

Eating & Drinking 1.18 1.08 1.09 1.17 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.24 1.20 1.18 1.14

Repair 1.87 1.66 1.43 1.28 1.43 1.53 1.55 1.59 1.58 1.34 1.33 1.33

Personal Services 0.49 0.47 0.51 0.66 0.78 0.72 0.71 0.66 0.76 0.66 0.61 0.59

NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores.

Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies.

Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands.

Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos.

Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, and RV parks.

Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return equipment to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances.

Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, and kennels *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS.

Comparison with Neighboring Counties Douglas County Pull Factors 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 90

95

00

05

10

15

Fiscal Year

Douglas County Otter Tail County Stearns County

Grant County Pope County Todd County

Comparison with Neighboring Counties, 2016

Town Douglas County Grant County Otter Tail County Pope County Stearns County Todd County

Pull Per Capita Factor Taxable Sales Number of Taxable (Taxable Gross Sales Sales Sales) Firms Population ($millions) ($millions) 37,467

$1,103.92

$471.99

1,185

$12,598

1.38

5,886

$175.73

$26.33

172

$4,512

0.49

58,001

$1,049.97

$437.12

1,527

$7,673

0.84

11,026

$179.80

$56.12

255

$5,240

0.57

155,732

$4,356.96

$1,484.34

3,530

$9,821

1.07

24,249

$199.43

$71.93

498

$3,048

0.33

Trade Area Analysis of Retail Sales Douglas County The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Potential sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating potential sales, population and income characteristics are taken into accou Potential sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength.

Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited.

Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects should be identified and built upon.

Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2016 Variance Between Actual & Potential Potential Sales ($millions)

Actual Sales ($millions)

In Dollars (millions)

As % of Potential

Trade Area Pop. Gain or Loss

Number of Firms

Percent of Total Sales

Vehicles & Parts

$17.68

$35.63

+$17.95

+101.6%

37,680

36

7.5%

Furniture Stores

$9.16

$15.98

+$6.83

+74.5%

27,655

18

3.4%

Electronics

$9.87

$8.63

-$1.24

-12.6%

-4,666

12

1.8%

Building Materials

$33.83

$79.05

+$45.22

+133.7%

49,594

26

16.7%

Food, Groceries

$23.46

$26.28

+$2.82

+12.0%

4,453

40

5.6%

Health, Personal Stores

$4.26

$6.73

+$2.47

+58.0%

21,519

19

1.4%

Gas/Convenience Store

$7.64

$15.43

+$7.78

+101.8%

37,778

23

3.3%

Clothing

$5.93

$2.86

-$3.08

-51.8%

-19,234

25

0.6%

Leisure Goods

$7.80

$8.63

+$0.82

+10.5%

3,913

36

1.8%

$34.01

$97.77

+$63.76

+187.5%

69,558

14

20.7%

$9.71

$12.62

+$2.91

+30.0%

11,127

109

2.7%

Amusement & Recreation

$10.55

$9.76

-$0.79

-7.5%

-2,785

29

2.1%

Accommodations

$13.72

$25.58

+$11.86

+86.4%

32,065

59

5.4%

Eating & Drinking Places

$54.96

$68.97

+$14.01

+25.5%

9,461

99

14.6%

Repair, Maintenance

$8.43

$12.34

+$3.91

+46.5%

17,236

94

2.6%

Personal Services, Laundry

$5.44

$3.51

-$1.93

-35.4%

-13,149

114

0.7%

$308.93

$471.99

+$163.06

+52.8%

19,584

Merchandise Group

General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail

Total Taxable Retail & Service*

1,185

100.0%

*All retail and service categories are included in Total Sales, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total Sales.

Douglas County Retail Trade Performance in Percentages The chart below depicts the percentage amount Douglas County's actual sales were above or below potential sales in 2016 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 12 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the county's population and income characteristics as well as statewide spending patterns. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a 187.5 percent surplus. Overall, Douglas County had a retail sales surplus of 52.8 percent.

It is important to note that variations in a county's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers and transportation patterns, as well as the individual retailer's management and marketing, can cause the retail sales of a particular county to deviate substantially from potential sales. It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects.

Percentage Above or Below Potential Sales, 2016

Vehicles & Parts

101.6%+

Furniture Stores

74.5%+

Electronics

12.6%-

Building Materials

133.7%+

Food, Groceries

12.0%+

Health, Personal Stores

58.0%+

Gas/Convenience Store Clothing

101.8%+ 51.8%-

Leisure Goods

10.5%+

General Merchandise Stores

187.5%+

Miscellaneous Retail

30.0%+

Amusement & Recreation

7.5%-

Accommodations

86.4%+

Eating & Drinking Places

25.5%+

Repair, Maintenance

46.5%+

Personal Services, Laundry

35.4%-

Total Taxable Retail & Service*

52.8%+ -100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Douglas County Retail Trade Performance in Dollars The chart below depicts the dollar amount Douglas County's actual sales were above or below potential sales in 2016 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 12 of the categories were above the calculated potential. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a $63.8 million surplus. Overall, Douglas County had a retail sales surplus of $163.1 million in 2016.

It is important to note that variations in a county's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular county to deviate substantially from potential sales. It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects.

Millions of $ Above or Below Potential Sales, 2016 Vehicles & Parts

+$17.95

Furniture Stores

+$6.83

Electronics

-$1.24

Building Materials

+$45.22

Food, Groceries

+$2.82

Health, Personal Stores

+$2.47

Gas/Convenience Store

+$7.78

Clothing

-$3.08

Leisure Goods

+$0.82

General Merchandise Stores

+$63.76

Miscellaneous Retail

+$2.91

Amusement & Recreation

-$0.79

Accommodations

+$11.86

Eating & Drinking Places

+$14.01

Repair, Maintenance

+$3.91

Personal Services, Laundry

-$1.93 -$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

Douglas County Retail Trade Surplus or Leakage County Surplus or Leakage as a Percent of Potential 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Fiscal Year

Fiscal Population Index of Year Estimate Income 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

34,117 34,628 35,138 35,467 36,075 36,258 36,390 35,988 36,240 36,412 36,529 36,789 37,103 37,103

0.82 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.79 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.88 0.92 0.90

Potential Sales (in millions) $248.5 $262.0 $270.1 $268.1 $276.6 $293.0 $276.7 $276.6 $284.7 $307.3 $281.3 $284.1 $308.5 $305.9

Actual Surplus or Surplus or Trade Area Sales Leakage Leakage as Population (in millions) (in millions) % of Potential Gain or Loss $404.1 $457.1 $473.9 $481.4 $511.7 $508.8 $463.6 $393.8 $403.6 $430.0 $453.9 $440.0 $473.4 $472.0

$155.6 $195.1 $203.8 $213.3 $235.1 $215.9 $186.8 $117.2 $118.9 $122.7 $172.6 $156.0 $164.8 $166.1

+62.6% +74.5% +75.5% +79.6% +85.0% +73.7% +67.5% +42.4% +41.8% +39.9% +61.3% +54.9% +53.4% +54.3%

+21,369 +25,789 +26,523 +28,219 +30,669 +26,715 +24,573 +15,248 +15,139 +14,538 +22,410 +20,199 +19,818 +20,140

State of Minnesota Per Capita Taxable Retail Sales & Threshold Levels for Selected Goods and Services 2016 Threshold level refers to the number of people per business, which can be used as a general guide for determining the "critical mass" necessary to support a business. These are broad averages for the state as a whole and do not reflect differences in income, tourism, agglomeration, establishment, etc. Further, the business counts are based on the number of sales tax returns filed and are converted to "full-time equivalents."

Multiplying people per business by sales per capita yields average sales per firm. In addition to state averages, averages for the non-metropolitan regions were calculated by excluding the seven county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region.

Business Activity / Store Type

People Per Business

Sales Per Capita

State

Non-Metro

1,999 3,411 4,185 2,837 1,625 3,181 2,771 1,647 1,609 5,021 519 932

1,428 3,325 4,563 1,864 1,402 3,503 1,968 1,949 1,380 3,652 413 850

$522.42 $268.42 $289.92 $1,000.85 $693.95 $124.57 $226.02 $175.20 $230.86 $995.31 $306.79 $110.57 $4,944.89

$523.14 $171.52 $141.53 $1,118.41 $595.76 $79.63 $287.53 $84.19 $169.87 $1,134.48 $274.23 $86.72 $4,667.01

11,993 12,313 115,180

20,057 32,300 207,259

9,004 16,118 5,977

10,629 42,154 6,870

$3.26 $32.49 $34.87 $318.97 $318.97 $19.24 $50.28

$0.75 $18.13 $0.04 $0.00 $182.47 $0.81 $40.62

FINANCE AND INSURANCE 522 Credit Intermediation 523 Securities, Commodities 524 Insurance Carriers 525 Funds, Trusts

9,435 20,942 12,452 276,432

8,023 92,115 29,608 621,776

$25.63 $1.72 $0.51 $0.29

$8.63 $0.05 $0.28 $0.31

REAL ESTATE AND RENTAL AND LEASING 531 Real Estate 532 Rental, Leasing Services 533 Lessors Nonfinancial Assets

2,311 3,718 614,292

2,782 3,388 #DIV/0!

$38.49 $157.27 $0.07

$33.49 $69.70 $0.00

673 124,355

$174.19 $31.68

$88.54 $2.54

ADMINISTRATIVE & SUPPORT; WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION SVCS 561 Admin, Support Services 570 562 562 Waste Mgmt, Remediation 16,804 12,887

$276.81 $3.60

$160.97 $1.93

4,684 1,231 130,900 11,103 18,288

$19.25 $20.35 $13.47 $2.71 $2.48

$16.11 $17.33 $9.55 $2.40 $3.22

2,012 54,202 2,412

2,371 56,525 1,904

$75.92 $3.88 $312.03

$20.36 $0.61 $151.61

$448.51

2,215 479

1,218 451

$405.32 $1,626.12

$383.37 $1,258.95

$577.60 $3,941.50

660 626 2,639 162,607 8,252

463 543 2,122 #DIV/0!

4,666

$249.30 $160.97 $34.29 $0.14 $48.93 $9,089.42

$275.87 $61.44 $38.43 $0.00 $65.49 $7,581.01

$663.18 $202.78

NAICS

RETAIL TRADE 441 Vehicles, Parts 442 Furniture Stores 443 Electronics 444 Building Materials 445 Food and Beverage Stores 446 Health, Personal Stores 447 Gas/Conveniene Stores 448 Clothing & Accessory Stores 451 Leisure Goods 452 General Merchandise 453 Miscellaneous Merchandise 454 Non-store Retail Retail Total INFORMATION 511 Publishing Industry 512 Movie & Recording Industry 515 Broadcasting 516 Info -Internet Publ/Brcst 517 Telecommunications 518 Internet Service 519 Other Information Services

PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNICAL SERVICES 541 Prof, Scientific, Technical Services 477 Mgmt Of Companies 32,714

EDUCATIONAL SVCS; HEALTH & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 611 Educational Services 4,323 621 Health -Ambulatory Care 1,046 622 Health -Hospitals 89,171 623 Health -Nursing,Residential Care 12,045 624 Health -Social Assistance 13,163 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION 711 Performing Art, Spectator Sports 712 Museums, Historical Sites 713 Amusement, Gambling, Recr ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 721 Accommodation 722 Food Services, Drinking Places OTHER SERVICES 811 Repair, Maintenance 812 Personal, Laundry Service 813 Religious, Civic, Professional Orgs 814 Private Households 921 Exec., Legisla., Other Govt TOTAL RETAIL AND SERVICES

State

Non-Metro

Alexandria $2,086.22 $877.31 $630.97 $5,278.54 $1,420.61 $383.91 $785.18 $209.26 $526.40 $7,036.07 $817.37 $82.20 $20,134.03

Compare the Community to the Region Alexandria and Douglas County On other pages of this report we compared communities using a combination of retail sectors and service sectors.

The information on this page only includes businesses in retail trade and does not include service sectors. The retail trade sectors include the following: building materials, motor vehicles & parts, clothing, food stores, electronics, convenience stores, leisure goods, health stores, furniture, general merchandise, non-store retail, and miscellaneous stores.

2016 Retail Sales per capita

Retail Sales Per Capita Douglas 1 Region

$ $8,431 3,202

Region 2

$

5,021

Region 3

$

5,860

Region 4

$

4,805

Region 5 State

$4,945$

5,406

Region 6E

$

4,684

Region 6W

$

2,993

$5,358 $

3,418

$

6,114

$

3,879

$

2,349

$

4,524

$

5,358

County

Alexandria

Region Region 11

7E

Region 7W

Region 10

$4,524

Region 8

Region 9 Region

9

Region Region 8 10

$2,349 $3,879

Region 11

Region 7W

State

Region 7E

Alexandria Region 6W

$6,114

4945

$3,418

20,134

$2,993

Douglas County Region 6E Region 5 Region 4 Region 3 Region 2 Region 1 $1,000

$20,134

8,431 $4,684 $5,406 $4,805 $5,860 $5,021

$3,202 $6,000

$11,000

$16,000

$21,000

$26,000

$1,500

Minnesota Taxable Sales per Capita, 2003 to 2016 Adjusted for Inflation

$1,300

$1,100

Gen. Merchandise Building Materials

$900

Food Vehicles & Parts Electronics Misc. Store

$700

Furniture Leisure Goods Gas Stations Clothing Health & Personal

$500

$300

$100

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Appendix: Data Sources and Definitions The University of Minnesota Extension has developed this retail trade analysis program to assist in the economic development of Minnesota towns and cities. These reports are available for all Minnesota counties, for most cities above 5,000 populations and for a few cities smaller than 5,000 population. The retail sector of each jurisdiction can be evaluated by comparing its trends to those of other similar jurisdictions. Business people and economic development officials can use measures such as pull factors and leakages to determine the need and feasibility of new retail businesses.

DATA SOURCES Most of the data in the analysis are based on annual reports of Minnesota sales tax, published by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. The Department of Revenue published an annual report of sales and use tax by jurisdiction until 1996, at which time the reports were released biannually due to budget constraints. This analysis uses the available reports from 1990-1996, 1998, 2000, and 2003 through 2016. The reports interpolate data for the years in which data are not available. See http://www.revenue.state.mn.us/research_stats/Pages/Sales-and-Use-Tax-Statistics-and-AnnualReports.aspx . The income data in this report are obtained from reports by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). (See http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm) Population data after 2009 are derived from the state demographic center. (See http://mn.gov/admin/demography/data-bytopic/population-data/our-estimates/index.jsp ) Sales and use tax permit holders file returns and remit taxes on a monthly, quarterly or annual basis.

Large businesses such as discount department stores whose tax is more than $500 per month are required to file on a monthly basis, while medium-sized businesses whose sales tax collections are less than $500 per month, are required to file on a quarterly basis and small businesses with sales tax collections less than $100 per month would most likely file on an annual basis.

DEFINITION OF TERMS Gross Sales Gross sales include taxable sales and exempt sales for businesses holding sales and use tax permits.

This is the most inclusive indicator of business activity for the reporting jurisdictions but it can be misleading when used in comparisons. At times commodity items (like gasoline) that are not taxable can have large price variations, creating huge swings in gross sales.

Taxable Sales Taxable sales are the amount of sales subject to sales tax. Taxable sales exclude exempt items, items sold for resale, items sold for exempt purposes and items sold to exempt organizations. For more information on what is taxed in Minnesota, see "Minnesota Sales and Use Tax Instruction Booklet" available on the web at http://www.revenue.state.mn.us/Forms_and_Instructions/sales_tax_booklet.pdf .

Retail Trade Analysis

Current and Constant Dollar Sales Current dollar (or "nominal dollar") sales are sales as reported by the state. No adjustment has been made for price inflation. In general this measure of sales is not satisfactory for comparisons over long periods of time since it does not account for changes in population, inflation, or the state's economy. Constant dollar (or "real dollar") sales reflect changes in price inflation by adjusting current dollar sales with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Constant dollar sales indicate the real sales level with respect to a base year. This is a more realistic method of evaluating sales over time than current dollar comparisons, but still does not take into consideration changes in population or changes in the state's economy.

Number of Businesses The number of sales and use tax permit holders who filed one or more tax returns for the year are reported as the number of businesses.

Reporting Period The reporting periods though 2005 in this report are calendar years. For example, the sales reported for the year 2000 are for the period, January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2000. The Sales and Use Tax Statistics reports for 2006 and 2007 use a slightly different methodology than in previous years.

Rather than basing the report on the year in which sales were made (as was true in earlier reports), the 2006 and 2007 reports were based on when returns were processed. Starting in 2008, the reports are again based on the calendar year when the sales occurred.

Per Capita Sales Per capita (or “per person�) sales are calculated by dividing current dollar sales by the population estimate. In areas where population is subject to substantial change, this is a more satisfactory measure of sales activity than sales alone. However, it still does not reflect changes in the state economy.

Number of Businesses The number of sales and use tax permit holders who filed one or more tax returns for the year are reported as the number of businesses.

Pull Factor The pull factor was developed by Dr. Ken Stone, an economist from Iowa State University Extension Service, to provide a precise measure of sales activity in a locality. It is derived by dividing the per capita current dollar sales of a city or county by the per capita sales for the state. For example, if a city's per capita sales are $20,000 per year and the state per capita sales are $10,000 per year, the pull factor is 2.0 ($20,000 á $10,000). The interpretation is that the city is selling to 200 percent of the city population. Worth noting that local consumption patterns or local average prices may skew pull factors. As example, a city may not have enough people willing to buy $35 steak dinners to support restaurants that typically carry expensive selections.

Pull factors are good measures of sales activity because they reflect changes in population, inflation, and the state economy. Pull factors are available through the University of Minnesota Extension for total taxable sales for all cities with reported sales (generally, cities with a population of 5,000 or more) since 1990. The pull factors listed in this report are not adjusted for differing income levels in different communities; they are simply the ratio of local per person sales to the state average.

Income levels are accounted for in the expected sales and potential sales formulas, described below.

Retail Trade Analysis

Typical Pull Factor The typical pull factor is a pull factor that represents the “norm” for cities within a population group.

It is an average for cities within a population group excluding some of the outliers in the group.

Personal Income Personal income is defined as the income received by, or on behalf of, all the residents of the county (state) from all sources. Personal income is the estimated sum of wage and salary earnings, supplements to wages and salaries (e.g.. contributions to retirement funds, health plans, life insurance policies), proprietors' income, rental income, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current transfer receipts to persons (e.g. receipts of Social Security, disability, worker's compensation, Medicare/Medicaid, food stamps, etc.) less contributions for government social insurance (e.g. Social Security, Medicare).

Index of Income This index provides a measure of income, relative to the state, which is calculated by dividing local per capita income by state per capita income. The base is 1.00. For example, an index of income of 1.20 indicates that per capita income in the area is 20 percent above the state average.

Expected Sales Expected sales are a retail performance benchmark. It is an estimate of the sales level a city would achieve if it were performing on par with Minnesota cities of a similar size. In addition to population and income variables, expected sales incorporate the typical strength of comparable communities via the typical pull factor. Expected sales are the product of city population, state per capita sales, the index of income and the typical pull factor. For example, if a city has a population of 5,000, the state per capita sales are $9,000, the typical pull factor is 1.30, and the index of income is 1.03, expected sales are approximately $60 million per year (5,000 x $9,000 x 1.30 x 1.03). This provides a means of comparing what is expected for a city of a certain size to what is actually happening.

Potential Sales Potential sales are an estimate of the amount of money that is spent on retail goods and services by residents of a county. It is the product of county population, state per capita sales and the index of income. The potential sales concept for counties is similar to the expected sales calculations for cities. However, potential sales do not utilize a measure of average pulling power (like the typical pull factor that is used in the expected sales equation). Since a county is a relatively large region within which retail business takes place, counties are compared without adjustments for trade area size.

Variance between Actual and Expected Sales (Surplus or Leakage) The variance between actual and expected sales is how much retail sales differ from the “norm” (i.e., the amount above or below the standard established by the expected sales formula). When actual sales exceed expected sales, we say the city has a "surplus" of retail sales. When actual sales fall short of expected sales, we say the city has a retail sales "leakage". The set of similarly-sized cities in Minnesota is the peer group to which the comparison is being made. Discrepancies between expected and actual sales occur for a variety of reasons.

Retail Trade Analysis

Trade Area Population Gain or Loss The trade area population gain or loss translates the percentage amount of surplus or leakage of retail sales into an estimate of the number of customers gained or lost in the trade area. It is calculated by multiplying the percent surplus or leakage by the population estimate for the city or county. For example, if a city with 10,000 residents had a retail sales surplus of 20%, the trade area population gain would be 2,000. Adding this number to the city's population gives an estimate of the population size of the city's trade area.

Calculating Expected Sales Using Comparisons with Other Rural Cities Beginning in the middle of 2013, Retail Trade Analysis reports for cities outside of the 7-county Twin Cities area contained new Rural Community Trade Area Analysis pages. The earlier paragraph of how Expected Sales are calculated explained that a typical pull factor of similar-sized cities was used in the formula. These new pages for rural communities only use similar cities that meet the following three criteria: 1) within approximately 30% of similar population; 2) located outside of the 7-county metro area; 3) have a similar location on the trade-center hierarchy scale. Cities with a similar trade center hierarchy have a history of similar total taxable retail and service sales. This method will keep the pull factors from metro cities like Mendota Heights and Little Canada being used in calculations for rural cities like Fairmont and Grand Rapids. More information on trade center hierarchy can be found in the article Trade-Center Hierarchy in Greater Minnesota authored

by Craig and Schwartau at http://www.cura.umn.edu/publications/catalog/reporter-41-3-4-2. This article noted there was little relative movement in any one city’s hierarchy ranking with just a few exceptions where dramatic economic changes occurred.

CAUTIONS Gross Sales Gross sales are a comprehensive measure of business activity, but readers should be aware that the numbers in this report are self-reported by holders of sales and use tax reports. Furthermore, the gross sales are not audited by the State of Minnesota. It is believed that the gross sales figures are generally reliable, but there is the possibility of distortions, especially in smaller cities where misreporting may have occurred.

Misclassification Holders of sales and use tax permits select the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) category that best fits their business. Regardless of who makes this classification, errors are occasionally made. Also, sometimes a business will start out as one type of business, but may evolve over time to a considerably different type of business. Misclassifications can distort sales among business categories, especially in smaller cities. For example, a furniture store that is classified as a general merchandise store, will under-report the sales in the furniture store category and over-report the sales in the general merchandise category.

Suppressed Data The sales data for merchandise categories that have less than four reporting firms are not reported.

This is a measure taken by most states to protect the confidentiality of sales tax permit holders. The sales for suppressed retail categories are placed into the miscellaneous category and are included in total sales. The sales for suppressed service categories are placed into the NAICS 999 category and are not included in total sales.

Retail Trade Analysis

Consolidated Reporting Vendors doing business at more than one location in Minnesota have the option of filing a separate return for each location or filing one consolidated return for all locations. The consolidated return shows, for each business establishment, the sales made, tax due and location by city and county.

Data for the establishments of consolidated filers are combined with data for single-location filers to produce the figures in this report. Occasionally consolidated reports may not be properly deconstructed and all the sales for a company may be reported for one city. Whenever misreporting is discovered, contacts are made by the Minnesota Revenue Department to clarify the situation.

Changes between 2000 and 2003 For fiscal year 2003, the Minnesota Department of Revenue implemented two major changes to improve their reporting of sales and use tax data. First, they adopted a geo-coding system, which accurately identifies the location of all business reporting sales and use tax to the state rather than relying on the businesses' postal addresses. One effect of this change is a movement of sales between neighboring cities (and in some cases, counties) in the year 2003. Thus, in several of the suburbs of Minneapolis and St.Paul and in cities such as Hermantown, which is adjacent to Duluth, the data show large increases in retail sales between 2000 and 2003, a substantial portion of which is due to the re-coding of business location and not to actual growth in sales.

The second change implemented by the Department of Revenue in 2003 was a shift from the Standard Industrial Classification system (SIC codes) to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS codes). This switch does affect the comparability of the data series prior to 2000 with that of 2003 (and beyond), especially for merchandise categories. Overall retail and services sales are highly comparable over time. In many cases, the merchandise categories for the data prior to 2003 are very closely related to the new categories. For example, approximately 97% of the 2003 statewide sales in the general merchandise category were accounted for by firms also classified as general merchandise under the SIC system. In other cases, the correspondence is less straightforward. For example, only 56% of 2003 statewide sales in the Food and Beverage store category were accounted for by firms classified as Food Stores under the older classification system; 41% of 2003 Food store sales were accounted for by firms previously categorized as Miscellaneous Retail.

The 2002 NAICS system does provide greater detail and introduces some new sectors, such as Retail Electronics. Over time, these changes will improve the information available for retail trade analysis.

Pull Factor Changes after 2013 The calculation for pull factor, as described on Definitions page 2, uses the divisor “state sales per capita.” Prior to 2013, the state taxable sales amount was obtained from the Minnesota Department of Revenue “Statewide by 3-Digit Industrial Code” sales tax report. However, certain retail and service categories have a large portion of their sales occurring from businesses outside of Minnesota. These include non-store retailers and the information service NAICS categories (telecommunications, publications, and broadcasting). Beginning with the 2013 data, the Minnesota sales from out-of-state businesses are no longer included in the calculation for the pull factor. While the individual retail and service sector pull factors in this report are not greatly affected by this change (except for non-store retail), the overall pull factor for the city may be increased by 8 to 14% depending on the amount of internet, mail order, and phone sales each year.

Retail Trade Analysis