Affordable housing nyc

Affordable Housing in New York City

May 12

2015

This report is an analysis for our main analytical area of interest concerning affordable housing topic. New York City: Will the government policies and mayor’s promises help fostering affordable housing and alleviate the high rent and shortage of supply of decent houses ?

Market Analysis

Ameni Kabboudi Affordable Housing In NYC

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Table of Contents 1.

Analytical Statement and Project Definition ..............................................................................3

2.

Market Analysis.......................................................................................................................4

2.1

Demographic.......................................................................................................................4

2.2

Households .........................................................................................................................5

2.3

Demand and Supply for Residential Sector ............................................................................7

1.

Competitive Supply..................................................................................................................8

2.

Economic Overview .................................................................................................................9

3.

Public Policy .......................................................................................................................... 10

4.

Development Quality and Examples of Affordable Houses ....................................................... 12

5.

Findings ................................................................................................................................ 14

6.

Recommendations................................................................................................................. 16

7.

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 17

8.

Reference ............................................................................................................................. 18

9.

Appendix............................................................................................................................... 20

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1. Introduction In this report, we are going to target a specific issue which consist of affordable housing in New York City. The main analytical topic will be the following: 

Affordable Housing in New York Metro: Will the government policies and mayor’s promises help fostering affordable housing and alleviate the high rent and shortage of supply of decent houses?

In this paper we will explore the different areas that play a factor in solving the issue we raised.

That is why, we will need a support from primary market research such as Reis and Esri databases to withdraw demographic and the market analysis of our New York Metro. Also, a secondary market is necessary where we can withdraw the actual policies and the current articles that handles the issue. City announcements and regulations in addition to investigation of some acts about housing will be in need to complete the market research. However, it is important to note that our main focus will be around the residential sector of Real Estate and mainly rental of apartments within New York Metro.

Later, we will explore the market potential for the existence and the future of affordable housing while we investigate the competitive supply.

It goes without saying, an economic overview is essential to be taking into consideration such as employment, house income, population growth and inflation.

Public policies are also necessary to accomplish this research. Due to the sophistication of New York City policies and the high asking price for rental and living expenses, we need to analyze the interaction between public and private sectors.

A deep understanding concerning the quality of the current houses and some examples of affordable housing options in New York City are necessary to be shown in order to have a vision about the future and the potential market trend.

After we gather data and explore it, we need to come with findings and predictable net absorption rates and capture rates.

Later, a monitoring strategy will be added, further, a conclusion and an analytical limitation as well as a list of recommendations for further analysis will be introduced.

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1. Analytical Statement and Project Definition New York has the second highest rent in the country. It is necessary to define affordable housing since usually the term is confused between low-income housing and affordable housing.

According to the federal government, affordable means that less than 30% of the household income is spent on rental and utilities. Affordable housing policies started from 1930’s and the main objective was to provide citizens with low-income with descent asking price in order to provide them with one basic right of humanity; accommodation and it is established in the aim of cutting down the homeless issue. In fact, this issue become even more concerning since ž low income of the population in New York spend about half of their income on housing according to Becky Koepnick from Furman Center For Real Estate And Urban Policy in New York University. Currently, only 64% of the housing stock in the city has been deemed affordable to median income households.

In fact, affordable housing is a big issue nowadays that all big cities suffer from and it has a negative spillover in terms of agglomeration, high density within the big cities and a plaguing of both the urban and the suburban areas. What is even more concerning is the huge gap that is faced within supporting affordable housing and the increase of prices. New York City is no exception. That is why our main focus on this report is the ability and the feasibility of fitting affordable housing into the equation of the drastic asking price of the residential sector. That is why, we wanted to explore the effectiveness of the new regulations set by the city of New York and the promises of the Mayor of setting incentives for developers to explore potential supply of affordable housing. Our main analytical statement is: Will the government policies and mayor’s promises help fostering affordable housing and alleviate the high rent and shortage of supply of decent houses ?

In this part, we will explore the demand and the supply of residential sector as well as investigate the current demographic data of New York City. To be more specific, we collect data from ESRI and this is the exact focus of the city (figure 1).

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Figure 1: New York Market Analysis Map

2. Market Analysis 2.1 Demographic A deep analysis is necessary to consider the market drivers when it comes to address affordable housing. That’s why we withdraw data. According to the data of 2015, the annual rate for population growth is 0.78%, while the male proportion is 47.8% while female is 52.2% while the median age for the selected area of New York City (figure 1) indicates 35.7 years old while the national median age is 37.9 since New York has been the hub for many young professionals. In this identified area of New York city, the current year population as 2015, there is about 6,271,245 people in the census. As for households, it is 2,359,952 for 2015 and had increased for the last 5 years by 3.54%. The average household size is currently 2.51 which is the same for the last 5 years. The number of families reach 1,378,214 for the selected area.

As a matter of fact according to the 2015 population census of 25+, the majority of the population have a bachelor degree which makes up 22.1% of the total population while , 45% of the population is never married and 56.3% of the population is working in services. The Ameni Kabboudi

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consumer spending shows that in 2015,the total spending on shelter has reached $ 49 million while the average spent is $ 20,154.49.

These results confirm the high necessity of potential affordable housing that need to be provided in order to support the demand of the population for affordable housing that become hard to exist these days especially results show that about 29% of subsidized homes disappear in the last 50 years which cause a disequilibrium in demand and supply.

2.2 Households As for the median household income for 2015, it is $ 50.541 while an expected increase by 2.5% is expected to be considered. In the next 5 years to reach $ 57,181.

The average household income however is $ 80,190 for 2015 while in 2020 it will reach almost $ 92,000. It is actually higher than the average national households which is currently $ 74,699 and expected to be $ 84,910. This might seem an interesting detail that people living in New York have a privilege of affording more consumer goods than others. However, the high taxes and the high living expenses in New York City will be a detrimental to this salary.

In fact, current per capita income is $ 31,553 in the area selected which is also higher the national average.

Currently, 23.4% of the 2,672,096 housing units in the area are owner occupied; 68.2%, renter occupied; and 8.4% are vacant. This can ring the alarm for the big issue that New York City faces that proves that affordable houses should take a place.

The annual rate of change in housing units since 2010 is 1.71%. Median home value in the area is $603,754, compared to a median home value of $200,006 for the U.S. In five years, median value is projected to change by 3.28% annually to $709,370. This is another indication that proves why people in New York tend to be renters than home owners due to the titanic sale prices that residential market demand.

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Figure 2: New York Market (NYU Furman Center)

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These numbers confirm the difficulty implemented and the challenges faced by people living in New York which raises the question whether there is any incentives or encouragement to solve this big issue that not only New York City suffers from but the big metropolitan cities as well.

This trend has particularly affected low-income families. The efforts of local governments to preserve subsidized properties as affordable housing are handicapped by a lack of understanding of the underlying factors that drive owners’ decisions to opt out and a misunderstanding that not everyone can qualify for affordable housing. A detailed affordability index is included in the appendix.

2.3 Demand and Supply for Residential Sector New York City is one of the most interesting cities that have different trends when it comes to its residential market. Below is a table that shows that units kept appreciating and for family rentals for +5 family units reach $ 156,250 since our main focus is rental. Other neighborhoods such as Bronx and Brooklyn are affected as well, since they are on the borders of Manhattan, the prices of housing there is in increase. Over the past decade, rents across the city continued to rise while incomes stagnated or fell. The next mayor will have to take on the challenge of addressing growing housing needs in an environment of shrinking federal support and a strengthening real estate market.

Figure 3: Median Sales Price Per Unit in NYC (NYU Furman Center) According to ESRI database, ACS Housing Summary, people in New York who can afford a house of a value between 500,000 and 799,000 makes up the highest percentage with 29%, however the gap is obvious, because around between 0.4% and 0.2% of the population is an owner of a house unit that has a value of a range of 5,000 between 100,000 and 10,000. This is a very high number that shows that houses with value less than 100,000 are almost non-existent in New York City.

It goes without saying that the issue of housing has been a problem in New York city for long time. As the ACS Housing Summary shows, 45.2% of housing units in New York are built in 1939 or earlier and this is a big problem when we analyze the quality of the houses provided later Ameni Kabboudi

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in the report. In fact, there are about 1,705,748 renter occupied housing units by contract rent in total from 2009-2013. This shows the big pressure on the public policy in order to provide affordable houses.

According to REIS data for 2015 in New York City, the average asking price is $ 3,291 while it rises by 0.3% from last year and an expectation to grow more next year.

A comprehensive overview of the New York Metro apartment market suggests that the primary concentrations of competitive apartment space are located in the Kings County submarket, representing 28,044 units and 15.4% of the metropolitan inventory, followed by Midtown West, with a 14.8% share, and Queens County (14.7%). Since the beginning of Q2 2005, the fastest growing area has been the Midtown West submarket, adding 10,399 units over that period, or 27.1% of total metropolitan apartment completions.

This is as shown varies between neighborhood in New York City, but this is one indicat ion about the current demand market and the urge of finding solution for providing affordable housing.

As NYC housing report indicates, New York City faces a critical shortage of affordable housing, as evidenced by several trends. First, the number of New York households struggling to afford rental housing grew between 2002 and 2011.

1. Competitive Supply According to REIS Database for apartment market in New York City, net new first quarter household formations in the New York Metro metropolitan area were 3,790. Of course, not all newly formed households immediately become apartment renters, but an analysis of longer-term economic and demographic trends can be useful in understanding the current quarter's level of demand. Since the beginning of Q2 2005, household formations in New York Metro have averaged 0.3% per year, representing the average annual addition of 8,400 households. This pace of household formations contributed to an absorption rate of 528 units during the first quarter, and total metro stock increased by 378 units due to development activity. As a result, the metro average vacancy rate drifted downward by 10 basis points to 3.1%. Over the last four quarters, market absorption totaled 3,465 units, 4.6% greater than the average annual absorption rate of 3,311 units recorded since the beginning of Q2 2005. In a long-term context, the first quarter vacancy rate is 0.4 percentage points higher than the 2.7% average recorded since the beginning of Q2 2005. This is the overall supply for the residential market but it does not indicate the number of the units supplied under affordable units. An estimate of 2,769 affordable units were created through a policy between 2005 and 2012 according to New York City Report.

In addition, there is a big shortage since a decade now of the affordable houses. The Chart below states that the issue keeps rising. The only change that might occur to help increase the supply of Ameni Kabboudi

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affordable houses will be only through a mandatory and solid regulations made by the government and the city to put more pressure on private sector of real estate to work hand in hand with the public sector to solve two issues helping the community solve the issue of rental and

Figure 4: Share of Occupied Units Rented at or Below Maximum Affordable Rent for ThreePerson Households by Income Group, New York City

2. Economic Overview Between now and year's end, 7,833 units of competitive apartment stock will be introduced to the metro, and Reis estimates that net total absorption will be positive 5,412 units. Consequently, the vacancy rate will drift upward by 1.1 percentage points to 4.2%. During 2016 and 2017, 13,778 additional units is projected to be introduced to the metro inventory. Net new household formations at the metro level during 2016 and 2017 are expected to average 1.2% annually, enough to facilitate an absorption rate averaging 5,655 units per year. Because this amount does not exceed the forecasted new construction, the market vacancy rate will rise by 90 basis points to finish 2017 at 5.1%. Between now and year-end 2015 asking rents are expected to increase Ameni Kabboudi

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4.3% to a level of $3,431, while effective rents will rise by 3.8% to $3,358. Thereafter, Reis anticipates that asking rent growth will accelerate to an annualized average of 3.7% during 2016 and 2017 to reach a level of $3,690 per unit. Effective rents are anticipated to advance at the more modest rate of 3.1%, as landlords sweeten the concessions packages offered to new tenants.

These numbers include affordable housings. So it is the overall supply expected in the future.

That is why the overall economic overview does seem more challenging with increase of rental and expected growth in income. This might lead to widen the gap between the current units provided and the affordable units. Below, is an explanatory graph that shows that the number of affordable houses has been in decrease which paves the way to a huge increase in poor rental households.

Figure 5: Gap Between Poor Rental and Affordable Units

3. Public Policy It goes without saying to solve this social and economic issue of providing affordable housing, the city and regulations need to be a catalyzer to set this problem before it gets worse. As mentioned before, affordable housings was an old program initiated by the government after the world war I when New York faced a crisis with housing with increase of immigration and return of veterans from war.

To clarify the current situation about New York, there are many organizations and urban planning activists in support for fostering a better accommodation for residents. In fact, 421Ameni Kabboudi

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prorgram is a program employed within the affordable housing of New York policies, first conceived in 1971, the 421-a tax exemption was billed as a stimulant for a lagging private residential market with a strong affordability mission built in. As the economics of the city’s housing market changed over the years, it has evolved into a spectacularly inefficient affordable housing program that today costs the city more than a million dollars per affordable apartment created.

According to New York City affordable housing programs, there are many programs that are encouraging residents as well developers to consider affordable housing such as:                

100$ Low Income Tax Exempt 420-a,420 c , 421 a, 421 b and 421g tax incentive program 501 C bond financing program 7a financial assistance 7a Management Program 80/20 Housing Program 85/85 Program Access To Home Advanatage Advantage New York Affordable Cooperative Housing Program Affordable Housing Permanent Loan Program AII Affordable Housing Program Anchor (Alliance for neighborhood commerce, homeownership and revitalization) Article 8A Loan Program Article IV Limited Dividend Company

According to policy makers, the previous mayor Bloomberg has failed in his strategy to make an unrealistic plan in order to provide more units available for New York Residents who aim for affordable housing. The current Mayor De Blasio is acknowledging the failure of the previous strategy. In fact, before January, the application process for two housing developments in New York City’s outer boroughs opened. The result:92,000 people applied for 924 available affordable apartments at a complex in Queens, and 70,000 people applied for 38 available affordable apartments at a complex in Williamsburg, the Brooklyn neighborhood where onebedrooms rent for an average of more than $3,000. This is another proof that demand and supply is in disequilibrium and the gap is huge. This is another call to the policy makers to change their regulations in order to enforce stricter rules by providing affordable housing.

According to recent data, New York City will commit $8.2 billion in public funds to a 10-year housing plan that could transform the cityscape from Cypress Hills in Brooklyn to the shores of Ameni Kabboudi

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the Harlem River, while providing affordable homes to thousands of low- to middle-income residents, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced early May. He has pinned his housing plan on the goal of creating or maintaining 200,000 affordable units over the next 10 years — 80,000 new units and 120,000 existing ones preserved — which would surpass the considerable investment in affordable housing over Mayor Bloomberg’s three terms.

This might seem a very ambitious plan but only time can reveal how effective this process would be. The plan is not only limited to medium- income people but there is also a big focus on lowincome population which might be another complicated issue.

With this amazing plan, there will be a need with a the cooperation of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo and the State Legislature to support his housing agenda. While rezoning and expediting construction are under the city’s purview, the state government controls subsidy programs and rent regulations for about a million rent-regulated apartments in the city.

This has been said, developers and people in the industry have responded positively to the matter. Steven Spinola, president of the Real Estate Board of New York, an influential industry group thinks that the plan provides “a realistic road map for solutions.”

Congress authorized the LIHTC program in 1986 to encourage the private sector to provide financing for affordable housing developments. Under the LIHTC program, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) allocates tax credits to state and local housing agencies, which offer them to developers who build or rehabilitate affordable housing. The developers then sell the tax credits to investors in order to raise capital for the project.

4. Development Quality and Examples of Affordable Houses Since the current policies as well as the willingness of developers to execute the plan seem positive. Development has been taking place and according to one developer “ This plan is the best, and the most profitable business now, is to build affordable houses”.

The New York State Association for affordable housing states that affordable housing generates about 1.3 billion in public investment and 1.5 billion in private investment. This has a positive spillover by creating more than 32,000 jobs in construction in New York City. That’s why the policies actually encourage developers to turn to affordable housing since it is profitable and absorption rate is very high. The fact that the supply is still far from demand will make developers more aware of the benefits of considering affordable houses rather than taking a risk and building condominium who might take time to be sold. Below is an example of one of the development that took place in 2008 by Atlantic Development LLC.

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Figure 6: Affordable building in Boricua Village, South Bronx The only issue that faces developers is that sometimes, there is a disproportion between a high end building while affordable houses is next door and that seems very annoying for developers who are building luxury units. This presents a high challenge since this might not seem as good placement to build next door to an affordable units. Many developers try to convince the others to buy their air rights in order to cover the loss that might seem very unappealing for the highend tenant also, this might affect the rental prices as well. A case in NOHO is a witness for this disproportion Chelsea is another example, where urban planners are focusing on 6 th and 8th avenue and between 14 and 16th streets, where a plan of building affordable housing is considered.

Figure 7: Affordable housing in Chelsea instead of the 10,000 Sq.ft Lot Ameni Kabboudi

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This is another initiative taken that might be a problem for developers who think Chelsea is one of the highest rent area in the city. That is why developers might be faced by challenge between rejection and acceptance of the affordable houses that do not seem to be a focus on a certain area specifically but spread all over Manhattan and is not only concentrated on the suburbs of the city.

Another indication of the diverse plan, the NYC housing connect shows that rental is only available and can be affordable for families.(Appendix) By the end of 2015, 166 properties are set to expire from a renewable program. These programs may be short term contracts, or they may be longer term mortgages. The quality of affordable houses built is still considered good, which complements the price set for the sale or rental of these units.

5. Findings The Mayor of New York City promises to build or preserve 200,000 units of affordable housing over 10 years. Developers have a lot of incentives such as tax breaks for 10-years as they are encouraged to contribute into the equilibrium of the residential market in New York City. In fact, they are required to contribute by 25 to 30% of project’s apartments for working class residents.

This has been described as a mission impossible that the mayor is aware of as New York Residents too. This is a proof that in order to provide residents with affordable houses, regulations need to be set in order to not only make sure the supply meets the demand but also send an incentives to developers to build affordable houses through tax breaks programs and special financing incentives.

According Housing First, to meet the affordable housing goals, Mayor Bill De Blasio would need to put $ 600 million a year. This might seem a huge investment but the future spillover will initially help in lowering the big gap of housing issue in New York. Below is a graph that presents the amount needed or expected in correlation with the future years.

The absorption rates will be certainly high as the demand is still high for affordable housing units. Cap Rates might vary depending on the current market. However, it goes without saying that success and failure of the plan is always relevant and this require a solid cooperation between both private and public sectors. As mentioned above, there are plenty of incentives from funding and profitability that indicates that the developers should be more interested in the development and this is working hand in hand with the public sector.

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Figure 5:Budget For Affordable Houses in NYC

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6. Recommendations To answer our thesis: for affordable housing in New York Metro: Will the government policies

and mayor’s promises help fostering affordable housing and alleviate the high rent and shortage of supply of decent houses?

The results show that the high rent might not be affected directly by the supply of affordable houses. However, an enforced policy is necessary in order to push developers into considering affordable houses. The current policies provided seem interesting and in fact for both public and private benefit, but the big question is how to convince developers of the big return that they can generate if they consider affordable housing as an option and as a generator of return.

It goes without saying that the future of the success or failure of affordable housing might still be blurry. However, many factors will play a huge role in defining what is right and what’s is wrong with affordable houses.

The public policy should still set incentives such as private funding and special financing in order to catalyze the willingness. Also, this is a social problem that the city needs to deal with and in return of satisfying demand.

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7. Conclusion The renewed attractiveness of New York City since the 1970s means population will likely keep increasing, and so will population and housing density.

In 2010, few other U.S. cities had any neighborhoods that matched the density experienced by the typical New Yorker. Yet, by recent historical standards, today’s density levels are not extreme. The public policy suggests that developers have more flexibility to build more units in one dense place. City officials will need to ensure that neighborhoods have sufficient infrastructure to accommodate their new residents. As well as setting a very obvious plan in both financing and taxation that make the affordable plans more interesting for developers.

It goes without saying that the supply is still in shortage and an increase of construction will certainly alleviate the rental price for affordable housing. However, there is no indication that the rental in New York City will drop. It will definitely keep increasing regardless of the supply of the affordable housing units. This is not correlated in the supply and demand of regular rental or sales in New York City.

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8. Reference "Academic Commons." The Balance of Affordable Housing in New York City: A Spatial Analysis of the City's Assisted Affordable Housing Landscape . . . -. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

"East Chelsea Residents Push for Park on 20th St." DNAinfo New York. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

Executive Summary Market. Rep. N.p.: n.p., n.d. ESRI. Web. "Home | New York City Housing Development Corporation." Home | New York City Housing Development Corporation. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

"Housing Affordability Index." Realtor.org. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

"Homeownership - NYC Affordable Housing Resource Center." Homeownership - NYC Affordable Housing Resource Center. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

Market Profile. Rep. N.p.: n.p., n.d. ESRI. Web. "The Mayor Begins His War on Homelessness." Gotham Gazette: The Place for New York Policy and Politics. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

Metro Executive Briefing. Rep. N.p.: n.p., n.d. REIS. Web. Moskowitz, Peter. "New York City’s Affordable Housing Plan Is Ambitious, Progressive, and Totally Inadequate." N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

Navarro, Mireya, and Michael. "De Blasio Sets a 10-Year Plan for Housing, Putting the Focus on Affordability." The New York Times. The New York Times, 05 May 2014. Web. 12 May 2015.

"New York State Housing Finance Agency (HFA)." New York State Housing Finance Agency (HFA). N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

"Our Research – Affordable Housing." – Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

"Promises, Promises: Homelessness and Affordable Housing - Roosevelt House Public Policy Institute at Hunter College." Roosevelt House Public Policy Institute at Hunter College. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

Site Detail. Rep. N.p.: n.p., n.d. ESRI. Web.

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"Will They Stay or Will They Go: Predicting Subsidized Housing Opt-outs." Will They Stay or Will They Go: Predicting Subsidized Housing Opt-outs. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 May 2015.

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9. Appendix

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The End Ameni Kabboudi

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