Trends and Forecasting research package by Anna kate Richardson

TRENDS & FORECASTING: RESEARCH PACKAGE The Future Is Gen-Clusive Fleur Robinson Anna Berkova Anvita Shah Amy Hewitt Anna Richardson Jie Ouyang Word Count: 3966

Figure 1

GEN-CLUSIVE

TA B L E O F

CONTENTS 03 04 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 20 25 31

The Future is: Gen-Clusive Introduction Trend Forecasting Reseach Methods Zeitgeists Climate Change Political Unrest Social Inclusivity Trends Trend Cartogram Presentation Appendices

The Future is: Finding a title that would summarize and strongly represent the theme discussed in this research project was at first, a hard task. Collaboratively the term Gen-Clusive was coined, representing the idea of all genders being accepted and included in the future. Playing on the famous phrase â&#x20AC;&#x153;The Future is Femaleâ&#x20AC;? (Mettler, 2017), the title The Future is Gen-Clusive perfectly captures what this research project is analysing and aiming to portray.

GEN-CLUSIVE

The aim of this research project was to develop a critical understanding of mega and macro trends and how they arise from cultural and social shifts. The project consisted of identifying and defining three zeitgeists and following their developments. The term ‘zeitgeist’ refers to the current mood of society and can be defined as “the spirit of the time” (Kim et al., 2011, p.49). Extensive research was carried out into the three chosen themes, which resulted in a presentation. Following feedback, a collaborative decision was made to select gender inclusivity, under the working title The Future is Gen-Clusive. The objective of this research project is to highlight the importance of forecasting in regard to trend shifts. Academic resources were utilised to underpin how trends develop in modern society and the prevailing factors, which influence these. In order to develop an understanding of our three themes and track their developments, research tools including PESTEL analysis (Appendix C), a Trend Cartogram and “Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations” (Rogers, 1962), were employed in the development of this investigation. Teamwork was a pivotal part of the research project, whilst often approached with disdain it is an important aspect of industry and professional life. Through research into the subject it was found that “successful employees will be the ones who can quickly adjust and work effectively with new and different people” providing an insight into the significance of the task (Parker, 2008, XI). Teamwork can be defined as “a group of people with a high degree of interdependence geared towards the achievement of a goal or completion of a task” (Parker, 2008, p.13). Before undertaking the task, a team charter was created outlining the values, roles and responsibilities of the group (Appendix A). As the research project was carried out changes were made to the group following the presentation, this altered the workload and team dynamic, in response to this the Team charter was amended to reflect the new team member (Appendix B). Throughout the process weekly team logs were kept, outlining the tasks individually carried out and also undertaken as a group. This weekly log aided in the formation of future plans, setting a clear outline of objectives that needed to be met (Appendix D).

Introduction

Trend Forecasting Trend forecasting “underpins all aspects of society where it is important to understand the short, medium- and long-term impact of new emerging changes taking place in the culture around us. These can be large scale changes impacting the world, or they can be more subtle and difficult-to-identify shifts in how we will live tomorrow” (Raymond, 2010, p.14). There are two types of forecasting, that are evident. “Short-term forecasting, which predicts trends one to two years in the future and focuses on new products, especially colour, textile, and style, and long-term forecasting, which predicts trends five and more years in the future and focuses on the direction of the fashion industry, particularly in materials, design, production, and retailing” (Kim et al., 2011, p.49).

Various professionals utilise forecasting within the industry to develop longterm marketing strategies and establish consumer behaviour (Branon, 2010). Organisations from various industries observe and anticipate the public’s attitudes and behaviours, these include government think-tanks, market research organisations and financial firms. Specifically, these consist of WGSN, World Economic Forum, and LSN Global acting as major sources of information for businesses (Posner, 2015). As Lisa White, Head of Vision at WGSN states “each season, we look at these cultural movements and press pause. We see how they have evolved in the past six months and how they are likely to move in the years ahead. (Spiegel, 2017). Trend Forecasters are “lifestyle detectives: men and women who spend their time detecting patterns or shifts in attitudes, mindsets or lifestyle opinions that run against current thinking or how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate and trade” (Raymond, 2010, p.12). Trend Forecasters are key for identifying emerging patterns in society and profound cultural shifts. They are heterophilous and open to change, working in a cohort or alone. Forecasters are required to be alert requiring a sharp eye, and an innovative nature to embrace change (Rogers, 1995). “Forecasters use a battery of techniques and processes that have been derived from disciplines as diverse as sociology, psychology and ethnography” (Raymond, 2010, p.14). In order to detect new directions in trends, forecasters look at innovators and early adopters, focusing on people within cities and neighbourhoods (Rogers, 1995). Successful forecasters need “to train themselves always to think about the future implications of any data they obtain” (Higham, 2009).

Trend Forecasting is carried out to predict “patterns or shifts in attitudes, mindsets or lifestyle options, that run against current thinking or how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate and trade.” (Raymond, 2010, p.12). Forecasting provides an insight into current consumer behaviour and potential changes that may occur (Kim et al., 2011). It is of importance for industry to have this insight to create effective strategies for commercial success and gain competitive advantage. WGSN, a leading trend forecasting company identifies that this “drives sales by staying ontrend” (WGSN, 2019). Furthermore, trend forecasting is utilised to provide insight into product and market positioning (Kim et al, 2011).

There are various methods utilised by trend forecasters, however the overriding method consists of observing society and cultural changes (Kim et al., 2011). Being commercially aware is crucial for forecasters, as it creates an understanding of the market and industry. Forecasters are required to “go through books, newspapers, periodicals, magazines, websites, television programmes and radio shows on a daily basis” (Raymond, 2010, p.44). In addition, it is necessary for trend forecasters to attend exhibitions and trade fairs before consumers are aware. (Raymond, 2010). Always being ahead of the consumers and the trends means that forecasters have to work at a fast pace and at a wide scale (McKelvey and Munslow, 2008).

Trend Forecasters use a plethora of research methods helpful in aiding their investigation and detection of new trends. Firstly, Trend Cartograms are used to visually interpret a trend gaining prevalence in society. It looks at the who, what, where, why and when, through identifying changes within society and the world around us. Furthermore, the use of Trend framing consists of selecting and categorizing trends. The idea of framing a trend “is about imposing a more logical, visual and texturally coherent framework around all the data you have collected so far.” (Raymond, 2010, p.60). The inherent concept of trend framing is being able to identify the key attributes of each trend, allowing the trend to take on a specific title, and give it a distinct identity. Moreover, Cultural Brailing, a technique created by American forecaster Faith Popcorn, is about brailling the culture and trusting one’s senses: things one can see, hear, taste and feel (Rothstein, 1996). The technique links a forecasters intuition with their observations (Ideacity, 2010, 4:10-4:45). Faith Popcorn explains it as running one’s fingertips “along trend-bumps as they speed past” (Rothstein, 1996). “Brailing is a way of communicating language through bumps on a page. We take that same technique here and feel the bumps in culture” (Raymond, 2010, p.36). Lastly, in order to accurately observe society “one must observe and analyse social and cultural movements.” (The British Library, 2019). This includes buyers “having an innate ability to absorb huge amounts of data and information, which they use to underpin their buying decisions. “A buyer who believes that their own good taste is more important than that of their customers inevitably fails” (Shaw and Koumbis, 2014).

Research Methods

Figure 2

Zeitgeists The purpose of the task was to identify three current cultural zeitgeists that underpinned societal movements and gain further insight into the key elements of mega, macro and micro trends. The three lifestyle themes chosen were; political unrest, social inclusivity and climate crisis. A variety of data and credible sources were utilised, to help formulate the direction of future consumer lifestyles and behaviours.

Figure 3

Climate Change Climate crisis accentuates the direct impact of past and current human activity upon the global temperature and the aftermath it has on the environment. As part of climate crisis two macro trends were identified: sustainability and activism.

Sustainability is defined as avoiding the depletion of natural resources and meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future (United Nations, 2019). Whilst sustainability arguably is not a new concept, the macro trend has gained increasing awareness over the last twelve to eighteen months, due to greater public interest and concerns (Barlett et al., 2019). Through academic research it was found that the world’s temperature is believed to have exceeded 1.5 degrees causing greater public action to occur (McGrath, 2018). The future of green energy was reviewed. Green energy is not a new phenomenon with the last decade witnessing an uptake in cleaner resources. The issue now identified through research is the viability of green energy (ICAEW, 2017). Dyson had plans to create an electric car; however, announced they were scrapping the project as it was not commercially viable (Wald, 2019). The greater awareness of the impacts upon the climate due to human behaviour has led to a change in the way consumers are behaving, it can be identified that consumers are now calling for businesses to change their ways (Futerra, 2019). Recent companies questioned by the public includes Boots pharmaceuticals, who came under scrutiny for the use of plastic bags instead of paper (O’Malley, 2019). This led to the eventual change from Boots signifying the impact and changing attitudes of consumers upon businesses (O’Malley, 2019). As part of this consumer shift, consumers are changing their lifestyles towards plant-based diets due to the appeared benefits (Smithers, 2018). Whilst people are opting for greener futures, it is important to identify and question the longevity of innovations.

Alongside sustainability efforts against Climate Crises are being advocated through activism. One aspect of activism investigated was the rise of pressure groups (Roy, 2018). One notable group is Extinction Rebellion. Formed in 2018, it holds a series of public demonstrations to raise awareness and make the people in power think (Newburn, 2019). Whilst undertaking this research the group began a series of protests on October 7th 2019 entitled “The Truth” causing widespread media attention and criticism (Newburn, 2019). Alongside the rise in pressure groups there has been an increasing trend of youth activism. Greta Thunberg, the Swedish schoolgirl can be identified as the innovator of the trend with her actions protesting alone leading to widespread attention (Franzen, 2019).

Political based climate protests.

Fast Fashion: Implications of ‘throwaway’ goods

Rise of the ‘conscious consumer’.

Technological advancements in Renewable energy.

Legislation put in place for Climate Change.

Impacts of global warming worldwide.

PESTLE

Figure 4

As part of Political Unrest two macro trends were identified: Brexit and unrest in Hong Kong.

Since the 2016 EU referendum, the United Kingdom has been attempting to establish a deal to leave the European Union, with this so far unsuccessful. The referendum was proposed as a result of a political manifesto, voted through due to varying opinions within the country, including immigration, political control and European Union fees (Rogers, et al., 2019). The EU Referendum is often referred to by the coined term Brexit. Since Brexit, Britain has been shaped through new attitudes, laws and plans (BBC, 2019a). Following the referendum there have been many changes, one observed is the UK’s Economic growth (Hoang, 2017). Economic growth is largely decelerating and being repressed (Inman, 2019). With the prices of travel, property and electronics rising, companies are relocating from London, once the centre of economics and business, to different cities in economically prospering countries. Furthermore, trade will become an issue if hard Brexit deal goes through, as it will significantly slow it down, however there might also be shortages due to customs (BBC, 2019a). Social uncertainty is a dominant theme when it comes to Brexit. With a lack of clear knowledge about what the future holds for Britain, there is a great deal of public uncertainty (Walker et al., 2017). Fewer students are opting to study in the UK, as tuition fees and student loans for international students is unclear (Mitchell, 2019).

Since June 2019 Hong Kong and the entirety of China has been affected by ongoing anti-government protests. The first eruption of protests was over the implementation of a controversial extradition bill (Amnesty, 2019). The bill would allow the extradition of people not only to mainland China “but to any jurisdiction in the world with which Hong Kong has no existing formal agreement” (Liu, 2019). The opposition to the extradition bill gathered two million protesters, from all walks of life and gained the attention of the international community. Online petitions were started by the protesters, university and secondary school alumni locally and globally (Li, 2019). The United Kingdom, Canada and The United States, few of the many who have voiced concern for the amendment with concerns surrounding the effect on international citizens in Hong Kong and the erosion of its independence (Li, 2019). Resistance of the proposal is so strong due to the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ arrangement giving Hong Kong its own Judiciary and legal system unavailable to China, allowing rights for freedom of assembly and speech (BBC, 2019b). After the withdrawal of the bill the protests have not come to a standstill; however, the protests have shifted towards gaining greater independence and the resignation Carrie Lam, Chief Executive of Hong Kong. (Wood, 2019).

Political Unrest

PESTLE P

Figure 5

Brexit voted following EU referendum.

Economic growth in the UK has slowed down.

Social Uncertainty due to the unknown future of the UK.

Electronics are becoming more expensive in the UKdue to Brexit

New laws in relation to travel and trade.

Companies change manufacturing locations due to prices in the UK.

Social Inclusivity Social Inclusivity highlights a process ensuring equal opportunities by improving the ability and dignity of individuals who are disadvantaged due to their identity (The World Bank, 2019). As part of social inclusivity two macro trends were identified: Social Acceptance and Gender Inequality

Social acceptance is the movement of people signalling their wish to include you in their societal groups and form relationships (Leary, 2010). Social acceptance has created population segments that are challenging the way the world is seen, gaining significant rise in buying power and impacting the way businesses operate (Cesar, 2015). The LGBTQ community can be defined as just one example of social acceptance. These ‘newly established’ groups cover the ideologies of gender blending, blurred lines between gender dressing and gender transitioning (Rossi, 2019). The flow of these societal trends; gender blending, gender transitioning and non-binary identification, can be summarised to equate to social inclusivity, whereby communities are moving towards acceptance (Avery, 2012). Today, Gen Z is referred to as the most well-educated generation: with a liberal set of attitudes and a great openness to emerging trends (Parker et al, 2019). Thus, suggesting how the trend is only likely to evolve further until full acceptance is achieved. Furthermore, the growing visibility of different lifestyle concepts is projected through social media, by the idea of a flexible identity spectrum for sexuality and gender. In the world of cosmetics and fashion, the attribute genderless is becoming more relevant (Friedman, 2017). This refers to colours and designs of styles, products and hairstyles not correspond to traditional gender clichés (Trendone, 2019).

Gender equality is one of the key challenges facing society today. Across the world it manifests in many ways including pay, employment opportunities and access to education (TimesHigherEducation, 2019). It can be said that inequalities in pay are induced by the education system whereby gender norms are influenced and defined from an early age. The 2019 Women, Business and Law report, produced by the World Bank, identified that gender discrimination is evident in 187 countries and only six countries globally give women equal legal work rights as men (Whiting, 2019a). It was identified that men are paid significantly more in most UK Businesses and the gender pay gap has widened in favour of men (Petter, 2019). It is predicted that closing the gender inequality gap and gender pay gap will take 108 years and 202 years respectively (Whiting, 2019a) (Petter, 2019). Noted by a group of female leaders, gender equality may not be achieved due to political forces (Whiting, 2019b). An open letter was written “calling for a redoubling in policies and in legal and social frameworks that will achieve gender equality and inclusion” (Whiting, 2019b). #BalanceforBetter was the key theme around this year’s International Women’s Day, 8th of March, communicating the beneficial impact of a gender balanced world (Whiting, 2019b).

Political disparity in terms of gender representation.

Companies have to be transparent through gender pay reports.

Gender inclusivity is taught in schools.

Social media campaigns including #METOO.

Legalisation of Gay Marriage in an increasing number of countries.

Neglection of environmental laws for LGBTQ protests.

PESTLE

Figure 6

Trends Mega Trend Megatrends have a profound impact upon society and business as a whole and can be defined as wide-scale movement or change in consumer behaviour (Kim et al, 2011). Mega trends have a sustained and long-lasting impact upon industries world-wide (Posner, 2015). The megatrends identified were the Climate Crisis, Political Unrest and Social Inclusivity. These three trends all have a profound impact around the globe influencing how businesses operate and how industries are responding to consumers. Macro Trend Macro trends are seen as a sustained change in consumer lifestyles that is taking place on sizeable scale with these directly affected by mega trends (Higham, 2009). Macro trends can be defined as “shifts in consumer behaviour that will dictate our business environment in the long-term” (LSN, 2019). Macro trends are influenced by different aspects of society including culture, technology and entertainment and can alter operating business sectors (Holland and Jones, 2017). These aspects are underpinned by PESTLE analysis (Appendix C). The macrotrends identified were sustainability and the rise in activism, witnessing seismic shifts in the way consumers are behaving. Micro Trends Micro trends are classified as “specific shifts in consumer behaviour that are changing the business environment in the short-term” (LSN, 2019). Micro trends do not have as much of a profound impact upon society as a whole with the said trend adopted by a smaller number of consumers (Posner, 2015). The micro trend of unisex clothing and gender blending was identified as part of the macro trend of social inclusivity.

Gen-Clusive Our selected theme is Gender Inclusivity. This theme investigates social acceptance, gender inequality and the breakdown of gender boundaries. Through research it was discovered that the Climate Crisis theme is already an established trend. Gender inclusivity was selected due to its relevance in todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s society, as opposed to the theme of Political Uprising, which was too broad and common. Prevailing factors in the gender inclusivity movement means there are many recent relevant academic journals and wider resources.

Various academic resources were predominantly used to start the research and to gather a comprehensive overview of each trend. Furthermore, after selecting the zeitgeist of gender inclusivity, a trend cartogram was designed to further the knowledge and create a critical understanding of the trend. Moreover, a PESTLE analysis (Appendix C) was created to gain a broad overview of the cultural shift. Using these research methods allowed for the detection of patterns and lifestyle changes within society. Moreover, the group research package lead to using new methodologies such as; cultural brailing and trend framing which helped to culminate the lifestyle trend, through being Heterophilous and hyper observant (Watson, 2019a). Whilst carrying this out the characteristics of a trend forecaster were considered. According to Raymond trend forecasters use a vibrant set of skills, which includes using a systematic approach, allowing them to identify shifts in consumer culture and engage with the world around them (Raymond, 2010).

After the defined trend was selected, research into its development was conducted. Being informed of current attitudes, behaviour and shifts it was identified that the theme of inclusivity expanded over many sectors. Through analysis of the trend the scope of the findings had to be narrowed down to gender futures, hence the title Gen-Clusive. Starting with the innovators the progression of the theme was followed through each stage relating to the trend cartogram. Establishing an overview of the personas and groups involved in the trend setting, such as parents raising their children as non-binary, was a starting point to understanding the progress of the trend (Newberry, 2019). Through analysing the drivers and impacts the consequences and futures became apparent. An example of these were equal maternity and paternity leave as a consequence (Fisher, 2018) and the future promise of increasing diversity at fashion weeks (Kent, 2019). Closely investigating the theme, the fast pace of this trend was evident, as can be seen in the cartogram.

Trend Cartogram The Trend Cartogram is a methodology in which a visual representation of the different stages leading towards an established trend are mapped out. â&#x20AC;&#x153;A cartogram is a diagrammatic technique used by a cartographer or map maker to capture complex geographic data in simplified, illustrative but strategically revealing wayâ&#x20AC;? (Raymond, 2010, p.60). A trend cartogram is more abstract and less formal, it encompasses the stages and inspiration behind trends, mapping the movement of the trend through various stages and futures.

21 Trend innovators When producing a Trend cartogram, it is important to identify the trend innovators. “Innovators tend to be original in their thinking and outlook” (Raymond, 2010). They are stand-out individuals who build on, adapt, extend and redeploy things that already exist (Mason et al, 2015). The innovators are essential for inspiring the future trends and impacts. Through identifying the innovators, it creates a base for a plethora of new ideas. The innovators for Gen-Clusive include celebrities such as Ru Paul and Sam Smith, who are ambassadors for the transgender community. Added to this, the rise in families raising their children as non- binary and gender fluid are leading the way into the future. Trend drivers The drivers of each trend can be easily recognised using PESTEL analysis (Appendix C), to formally identify which factors are impacting on each trend. The drivers are key factors to the diffusion of a trend, they support the facts, statistics ad Quotes and articulate external sources (Raymond, 2010). The drivers help us to determine the individual zeitgeists within themes and trends. The innovators have had a knock-on effect, creating strong drivers to create a Gen-Clusive society. These include the #METOO Campaign and activists such as Emma Watson and Bianca Jagger.

Trend impacts “Trend impacts are the manifestation of an already existing trend across different sectors and industries. This factor of a new lifestyle shift shows evidence of the grass being fertile, allowing for a mainstream trend to flourish” (Watson, 2019b). The drivers of the trend have had a direct impact on gender inclusivity, creating events such as, producing gender pay gap reports and creating responses in reaction to the #METOO Campaign.

Trend Consequences This is where new advances and developments are made. Trend consequences brings to life the changes the drivers may have inspired, making their ideas come to life within society and the wider world. These impacts create direct consequences resulting in outcomes such as trans gender inclusion in the workplace and a major increase in the number of women attending university helping to create a Gen-Clusive society.

Trend Futures Trend futures project the long-term opportunities and potential of certain themes and trends. Trend futures provides an insight into the shoppers of the future. “In order to do this one must have fresh and original perspective and be able to do outside the bo thinking” (WGSN, 2019). The future of Gen-Clusivity is genderless products in all shapes and forms. These may include barbie dolls for boys and girls, as well as a rise in gender neutral beauty products. Moreover, increasing diversity within fashion weeks across the globe.

Transgender man and his non-binary fiance reveal how they are raising their child

Rise in power of LGBTQ communities

Annual theme for international womens day

Genderqueer Sam Smith: I feel just as much woman as man

Transgenders gaining celebrity status: RuPaul

INNOVATORS

Activist Emma Watson speaks at the UN women

Activist Bianca Jagger speaks at the March4women

Global participation in International womens day

Inclusivity centred TED talks

UN Commission on the status of women

#METOO Campaign

DRIVERS

BBC 2019 Gender pay gap report

Companies made to expose gender pay gap

Greater Pride march participation globally

Trials held in response to #METOO campaign

Political uproar in the election of Trump, following exposure of sexualised

IMPACTS

Greater pressure for inclusivity in Fashion

Increasing number of women attending University

Equal Maternity/Paternity leave

CONSEQUENCES

Increasing diversity at fashion weeks globally

Rise in production of genderless products on the market

Wider use of LGBTQ community models in advertising

FUTURES

Figure 7 shows the initial Trend Cartogram produced as part of the research of the Gender-clusive trend. Following the creation of this, valuable feedback was recieved based on the titles ‘Have you thought about...’, ‘Tell us more about...’, ‘I did not know that...’ and ‘Futures...’, as seen in Figure 8. Following this feedback amendments were made to the Trend Cartogram to reflet opinions: as seen in Figure 9 on the following page. Figure 7

Figure 8

INNOVATORS

Tell us more about...

- Societal pressures

Transgenders gaining celebrity status: RuPaul

#METOO Campaign

DRIVERS

Activist Bianca Jagger speaks at the March4women

Activist Emma Watson speaks at the UN women

Global participation in International womens day

Inclusivity centred TED talks

UN Commission on the status of women

Genderqueer Sam - History of trends Smith: I feel just as Legislation/new laws much woman as man

Rise in power of LGBTQ communities

Annual theme for international womens day

Transgender man and his non-binary fiance reveal how they are raising their child

IMPACTS

Trials held in response to #METOO

CONSEQUENCES

Equal Maternity/Paternity leave

Greater pressure for inclusivity in Fashion

Increasing number of women attending University

- Millenials, Gen Z/Y - Charities -Young people

campaign about... Have you thought

Political uproar in the election of Trump, following exposure of sexualised

Greater Pride march participation globally

Companies made to expose gender pay gap

I didnt know about... - Victoria Secret

BBC 2019 Gender pay gap report

Wider use of LGBTQ community models in advertising

FUTURES

Futures...

- Future of education, Rise in production of genderless products on employment the market - Deeper rooted changes

Increasing diversity at fashion weeks globally

Genderqueer Sam Smith: I feel just as much woman as man

Women Protesting in the 1970s

Rise in power of LGBTQ communities

Annual theme for international womens day

Transgender man and his non-binary ďŹ ance reveal how they are raising their child

Transgenders gaining celebrity status: RuPaul

INNOVATORS

Activist Emma Watson speaks at the UN women

Millenials believe that gender lines need to be blurred

Activist Bianca Jagger speaks at the March4women

#METOO Campaign

Global participation in International womens day

Inclusivity centred TED talks

UN Commission on the status of women

Charities empowering Women

DRIVERS

BBC 2019 Gender pay gap report

Companies made to expose gender pay gap

Greater Pride march participation globally

Trials held in response to #METOO campaign

Political uproar in the election of Trump, following exposure of sexualised

IMPACTS

Greater pressure for inclusivity in Fashion

Increasing number of women attending University

Equal Maternity/ Paternity leave

Gender Neutral Bathrooms

CONSEQUENCES

Increasing diversity at fashion weeks globally

Rise in production of genderless products on the market

Encouraging gender equality at early stages of education

Wider use of LGBTQ community models in advertising

FUTURES

Figure 9

Presentation

The folloing slides created the presentation showed to peers on the 31st October. Following this, feedback was recived. This feedback stated that the information given was stong and thorough with good referencing. The presentation was required to last at least 12 minutes, however in total ran slightly over thus timing was something that could have been improved. Furthermore, additional detail could be given in the form of a clearly structured PESTLE analysis rather than an intergrated analysis within the body of text to provide further clarity and ease of read for the audience.

Current Mega Trends By: Anvita Shah, Anna Berkova, Amy Hewitt, Fleur Robinson, Jie Ouyang

The 3 Zeitgeist... -Political Unrest - Social Inclusivity - Climate Crisis

Megatrend: Political Unrest

Figure 1: Brexit (Beggin, R. 2019)

Figure 2: Nikkei Asian Review. (2019).

BREXIT -

2016 (referendum) to present ● ● ● ● ● ●

TRADE ECONOMY SOCIAL UNCERTAINTY EUROPEAN UNION TRAVEL WORK AND STUDY

“The Government cannot just be consumed by Brexit. There is so much more to do.” Theresa May

Figure 3: London Retail (Givden, A. 2019)

Hong Kong Hong Kong is a special administrative region (SAR) of China. 1 country, 2 systems What’s happening in HK? Wanton destruction such as blocking road, arson, throwing petrol bombs and ● arbitrarily Illegal assembly ●

Figure 4: Hong Kong (Mail Online. 2019)

Figure 5: Hong Kong (Mail Online. 2019)

27 ‘Screenshot from the facebook of Hong Kong Police’

Figure 6 7: News.ifeng.com. (2019).

The protestors put forward 5 demands: ● ● ● ● ●

Full withdrawal of the extradition bill ( 完全撤回引渡法案 A commission of inquiry into alleged police brutality ( 对警察暴行的调查委员会 Retracting the classification of protesters as “rioters” ( 撤消将抗议者归类为“暴徒”的分类 Amnesty for arrested protesters ( 赦免被捕抗议者 Immediately implement Dual universal suffrage ( 实行双重普选

2019-09-04 Hong Kong government has announced the withdrawal of a draft ‘Extradition Law Amendment Bill’ Cause: Effect: Surface problems: ● Visitors(mostly mainland visitors) ● Trade-war between China and decreased the United states ● Losing the money and confidence of ● Extradition Law Amendment some of its richest resident and Bill upper middle class ● People opening oversea accounts meaning money is moved out of HK Fundamental problems: Economic problems

Megatrend: Social Inclusivity

Figure 8: Social Groups (Spectra. 2019)

Figure 9: Workplace social groups. (ExPat. 2019)

Social Acceptance -

The movement of people signalling they their wish to include you in their group forming relationships and new â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;subculturesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. Leary, M.R. (2010) Popular segments challenge social norms, whom are becoming increasingly vocal regarding personal preferences. LGBTQ community. Passing of new laws: Northern Ireland, 2019. Germany 2017. UK 2013. Pride week. Flexible identity spectrum.

Figure 10: Microsoft at pride (Microsoft. 2018)

Gender Inequality Gender inequality has been a controversial topic for many years. This year there has been an open letter which states: Gender equality may not be achieved due to political forces (Petter, 2019).

Figure 11: Gender Inequality (Nenge, 2019)

Reports state that: Only in 108 years the gender inequality gap will be closed (Whiting, 2019). It will take 202 and 107 years to close the gap between the economic and political empowerment respectively Whiting, 2019). In about 202 years the gender pay gap will be closed (Petter, 2019).

Megatrend: Climate crisis

Figure 12: Climate Crisis, (Edie Newsroom, 2019)

29 Sustainability Sustainability has been a topic of conversation for an extended period of time, it is in the last 12-18 months however that the topic has been gaining widespread media attention (Barlett et al, 2019).

Figure 13: Dyson Cancels Electric Car, (Campbell and Pooler, 2019)

Changing consumer behaviour UN Climate Change Summit Energy of the Future

Figure 14: Un Climate Change Conference, (Un Environment Programme, 2019)

Activism -

Extinction Rebellion - public protests Youth Activism - Greta Thunberg Rise of pressure groups

Cause: -

Greta Thunberg - swedish schoolgirl began protesting alone gained widespread attention inspired school children in other nations to also begin school strikes (Franzen, 2019) Increasing concern from the public about the irreversible impacts of climate change

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Six million people have taken to the streets over the past week, uniting across timezones, cultures and generations to demand urgent action on the escalating ecological emergency.â&#x20AC;? (Barlett et al, 2019)

Figure 15: Greta Thunberg, (Franzen, 2019)

Figure 16: Youth Activism, (Zhou, 2019)

Figure 18: California Wildfires, (Riotta, 2019)

Figure 20: Consumer Debate, (Smithers, 2019) Figure 17: Extinction Rebellion, (Gaffney, 2019)

Figure 19: Greta Thunberg, (BBC News, 2019)

Reference List Andrew J Nathan. 2019. How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis. [Online]. [Accessed 29 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-09-30/how-china-sees-hong-kong-crisis Barlett, J., Taylor, M., and Watts, J. 2019. Climate crisis: 6 million people join the latest wave of global protests. [Online]. [Accessed 24 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/27/climate-crisis-6-million-people-join-latest-wave-of-worldwide-protests BBC News. 2019. Hong Kong protests explained in 100 and 500 words. [Online]. [Accessed 24 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-49317695 BBC News. 2019. How weeks of protests have hit Hong Kong tourism. [Online]. [Accessed 29 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-49276259? Franzen, H. 2019. Greta Thunberg: Why I began the climate protests that are going global. [Online]. [Accessed 20 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24132213-400-greta-thunberg-why-i-began-the-climate-protests-that-are-going-global/#ixzz63eWHdSvf Ft.com. 2019. Hong Kong’s rich open foreign bank accounts amid unrest | Financial Times. [Online]. [Accessed 24 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.ft.com/content/d584eb92-f014-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195 Globaledge.msu.edu. 2019.. Hong Kong: Introduction. [Online]. [Accessed 24 October 2019]. Available From: https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/hong-kong Leary, M.R. 2010. Affiliation, acceptance, and belonging. In S.T. Fiske, D.T. Gilbert & G. Lindzey (Eds.), Handbook of Social Psychology (5th Ed., Vol. 2, pp. 864–897). New York, NY: Wiley.

Reference List May, T. 2019. Theresa May Quotes. [Online]. [Accessed 24 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/theresa_may_758316 News.ifeng.com. (2019). 焚烧国旗，大肆破坏！暴徒又闯香港机场闹事. [Online]. [Accessed 24 October 2019]. Available From: https://news.ifeng.com/c/7pcUYFPE1xp Petter, O. 2019. Gender Pay Gap; What is it and How Is It Different From Equal Pay? [Online]. [Accessed 23 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/women/gender-pay-gap-equal-pay-women-paid-less-motherhood-a8856121.html Whiting, K. 2019. 7 Surprising and Outrageous Stats About Gender Inequality. [Online]. [Accessed: 23 October 2019]. Available From: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/surprising-stats-about-gender-inequality/

APPENDIX

Appendix A Inserted below is Appendix A, a copy of the initial Team Charter which was created before changes were made to the group members. The Charter was then ammended, as seen in Appendix B.

Appendix B Below is the amended team charter following the changes made to the team members. Anna was added to the team as seen per the final charter below.

Appendix C Appendix C is a greatly useful research method that was utilised in the development of a deeper undersanding of the Gen-Clusive macro trend. PESTLE PESTLE is a strategic planning tool for assessing the impacts of activities of the macro marketing environment through political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal areas. The macro marketing environment affects the broader situation in all industries. However the use of PESTLE is applied to underpin and simplify this environment because companies have no direct control of its changes (Posner, 2015, p.67). These factors are often used by organisations to evaluate the external risk before starting a project (Rastogi and Trivedi, 2016). Political and legal factors: External and internal factors are covered by Legal factors such as; employment, taxation, imports and exports and differing laws for countries. Political factors such as tax policies, fiscal policy and trade tariffs etc. which are factors concerned with the degree of government influence on the economy or industry (Rastogi and Trivedi 2016). A company should be concerned about the mainstream political and current economic situation such as currency exchange rate, employment level and taxation ect. and move with the times (Posner, 2015, p. 67). Economic factors: The economic factors directly influence the economyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s performance and long-run effect. Also, the economic climate has notable effect on consumer confidence and spending power. During the economic downturn, people would spend money on necessity good rather than discretionary spending (Posner, 2015, p69). Social and cultural factors: The sociological factors involve all social factors such as cultural expectations, norms and population dynamics that affect the market and community. These factors examine the social environment of the market and measure determinants such as cultural trends, demographics, and demographic analysis (Posner, 2015, p.69).Social and Cultural factors, such as film and music, alongside economic factors can affect customer behaviour. Technological factors: Technological factors consider all factors influenced by technology. These factors mean that technological innovation might affect the industry operation and whether it is suitable for the market (Rastogi andTrivedi, 2016). Technologies such as electronic data interchange, computer-aided design, sophisticated computer software and 3D printing are the new technologies in the modern society which have an overwhelming impact on all industry (Posner, 2015, p69). Environmental factors: Environmental factors include all factors that are influenced by the surrounding environment such as climate, geographic location, ground conditions and nearby water sources. (Rastogi and Trivedi 2016).

Appendix D

Weekly Log Each week, the team completed a log, an alaysis and review of how the week went. This log included an analogy of what worked well, what didnt work so well and what could be improved. The log also encourages us to consider what our objectives were for the following week and plan how we would complete the required tasks for this research project. The weekly log was extreamly beneficial in aiding organsiation of the group, it also gave us a clear structure fot this project whilst providing a weekly reflection for the entirity of the module. Throughout the following pages, a copy of each of our 10 weekly logs have been inserted to this research package.

Week 1 Team Log

Week no: 1

Group: 3am

Reflection on team work from previous week. • What worked - Worked well as a group - Listened to each other’s ideas

•

What didn’t work well - It was difficult to carry out the task as all members were not present

•

How you are going to improve? Organise a time when the entire group is available

Next Week’s Objectives (specific and measurable): To be stated after the session 3 Big rocks - Choosing the three themes - Research into the assignment

Meetings

Date: Monday 7th October 2019

Present: Amy Hewitt, Anvita Shah Jie Ouyang

Meetings

Date

Present:

Name/role Amy Hewitt

Responsibilities/Tasks • Discussing and organising team charter • Outlined what we were going to do for the next week • Established group rules

Team Review/next actions Researching three themes

Anvita Shah

• • •

Jie Ouyang

• • •

Discussing and organising team charter Outlined what we were going to do for the next week Established group rules

Researching three themes

Discussing and organising team charter Outlined what we were going to do for the next week Established group rules

Researching three themes

Week 2 Team Log

Week no: 2

Group: 3am

Reflection on team work from previous week. • What worked - Nearly had the full team (only one team member was missing due to illness) - Splitting the work evenly - Team activity in seminar worked well - Worked collaboratively - Everyone contributed

•

What didn’t work well - There weren’t any issues this week

•

How you are going to improve? - Aim for a full team meeting next week - Insuring we have more research to discuss

Next Week’s Objectives (specific and measurable): To be stated after the session 3 Big rocks - Discuss the key themes we identified last week and what we found from our individual research - Chose three themes from the original list - Beginning the allocation of areas for PESTLE research

Meetings

Date: 10 October 2019

Present: Amy Hewitt, Anvita Shah, Fleur Robinson, Anna Berkova

Meetings

Date

Present:

Name/role Amy Hewitt

Responsibilities/Tasks • Amending team charter • Filling in team log for week 1 and week 2. • Researching different themes • Identified 4 key themes • Amending team charter • Filling in team log for week 1 and week 2. • Researching different themes • Identified 4 key themes • Setting up a google docs • Researching macro trends • Researching different themes • Identified 4 key themes • Researching macro trends • Researching different themes • Identified 4 key themes

Team Review/next actions • Research one of the themes • Deciding which 3 themes we want to use

Anvita Shah

Fleur Robinson

Anna Berkova

• •

• • • •

Research one of the themes Deciding which 3 themes we want to use Research one of the themes Deciding which 3 themes we want to use Research one of the themes Deciding which 3 themes we want to use

Team Log

Week no: 3

Group: 3am

Reflection on team work from previous week. • What worked - Everyone communicated and listened - Individual research successfully came together - Ability to share ideas - Teamwork was strong this week - Everyone completed the required research - Everyone had a valuable input to the meeting

•

What didn’t work well - Trends were too specific, needed to look at the bigger picture - Researched dramatically reduced (as they were too similar to each other) when analysing the number of macro trends from last team meeting. - Conversation drifted off topic quite regularly - One group member arrived late so the research analysis process was delayed - Mid way through the week we thought the group was split jeopardising research process.

•

How you are going to improve? - Work more collaboratively on a single topic rather than individually - Try to stop drifting from the topic of the assignment - Everyone arrives on time

Next Week’s Objectives (specific and measurable): To be stated after the session 3 Big rocks - Bring the research together for the 3 zeitgeists - Begin each PESTLE analysis - Focus on covering a broader range of sources when doing resaech

Week 3

Meetings

Date: 17 October 2019

Present: Amy Hewitt, Anvita Shah, Jie Ouyang, Fleur Robinson, Anna Berkova

Meetings

Date

Present:

Name/role Amy Hewitt

Responsibilities/Tasks • Chose the 3 zeitgeists for the assignment • Underpinning the key points of one of the three themes chosen • Filling in team log for week 1 and week 2. • Chose the 3 zeitgeists for the assignment • Chose the 3 zeitgeists for the assignment • Underpinning the key points of one of the three themes chosen • Filling in team log for week 1 and week 2. • Chose the 3 zeitgeists for the assignment • Chose the 3 zeitgeists for the assignment • Underpinning the key points of one of the three themes chosen

Team Review/next actions • Continuing researching • Look in depth on the three themes

Anvita Shah

Jie Ouyang

Fleur Robinson

Anna Berkova

• •

Continuing researching Look in depth on the three themes

• •

Continuing researching Look in depth on the three themes

• •

Continuing researching Look in depth on the three themes

• •

Continuing researching Look in depth on the three themes

Team Log

Week no: 4

Group: 3 am

Reflection on team work from previous week. • What worked - Thursday 24 October - Group meeting → Worked together to present ideas and research visually → Everyone had a valuable input to the meeting → Everyone completed the require research → Individual research successfully came together - Tuesday 29 October – Group meeting → Collaborated well on group presentation → Everyone had prepared their part of their research → Everyone agreed on all ideas •

What didn’t work well - Thursday 24 October - Group meeting → Got distracted in the begging talking about year in industry in the first group meeting. → A lot of ideas being thrown around and not everyone was heard. → Everyone was quite tired as it was quite early in the morning. → Not very focused on the task at hand → Found that some of the research needed condensing. - Tuesday 29 October – Group meeting → All were quite tired → Took a while to start working → Not a lot of ideas following → Worked more individually

•

How you are going to improve? - Thursday 24 October - Group meeting → Try to focus on condensing the presentation → Try to be more focused at what needs to be done without getting distracted - Tuesday 29 October – Group meeting → Being more active and alert → Discussing more ideas together as a group and not individual working on own work

Next Week’s Objectives (specific and measurable): To be stated after the session 3 Big rocks - Condense research and highlight key points for presentation - Prepare each section of the presentation - Prepare and divide the sections evenly between all members to ensure every speaks during the presentation

Week 4

Meetings

Date: 24 October 2019

Present: Amy Hewitt, Anvita Shah, Jie Ouyang, Fleur Robinson, Anna Berkova

Meetings

Date: 29 October 2019

Present: Amy Hewitt, Anvita Shah, Jie Ouyang, Fleur Robinson, Anna Berkova

Name/role Amy Hewitt

Responsibilities/Tasks • Work on the visual part of the presentation • Researching and underpinning one of the three mega trends • Highlight two macro trends for one mega trend • Work on the visual part of the presentation • Filling in team log for week 4 • Researching and underpinning one of the three mega trends • Highlight two macro trends for one mega trend • Work on the visual part of the presentation • Researching and underpinning one of the three mega trends • Highlight two macro trends for one mega trend • Work on the visual part of the presentation • Researching and underpinning one of the three mega trends • Highlight two macro trends for one mega trend • Work on the visual part of the presentation • Researching and underpinning one of the three mega trends • Highlight two macro trends for one mega trend

Team Review/next actions • Research in depth the mega trends and two ley macro trends of that macro trend • Writing and preparing speaking part of speech • Research in depth the mega trends and two ley macro trends of that macro trend • Writing and preparing speaking part of speech

Anvita Shah

Fleur Robinson

Jie Ouyang

Anna Berkova

•

• •

•

Research in depth the mega trends and two ley macro trends of that macro trend Writing and preparing speaking part of speech Research in depth the mega trends and two ley macro trends of that macro trend Writing and preparing speaking part of speech Research in depth the mega trends and two ley macro trends of that macro trend Writing and preparing speaking part of speech

Week 6 Team Log

Week no: 6

Group: 3am

Reflection on teamwork from previous week. • What worked - Finalised the name of the zeitgeists - Worked well with our new team member Anna Richardson - Worked well together in creating the trend cartogram

•

What didn’t work well - Didn’t understand exactly what to do for the trend cartogram so had to start all over again - All quite tried and drained - Wasted time trying to do admin

•

How you are going to improve? - Be clearer with regards to what to research - In terms of the five parts of the cartogram - Try and not get distracted on other things and concentrate on what needs to be done

Next Week’s Objectives (specific and measurable): To be stated after the session 3 Big rocks -

Extend the research from the trend cartogram

Meetings

Date: 13 November 2019

Present: Amy Hewitt, Anvita Shah, Jie Ouyang, Fleur Robinson, Anna Berkova, Anna Richardson

Meetings

Date

Present:

Name/role Amy Hewitt

Responsibilities/Tasks • Finding visuals and examples for trend impacts for the trend cartogram • Helped other team members with their visuals for other factors of trend impacts

Team Review/next actions • Finalise Trend Cartogram after gaining fed back

Anvita Shah

• •

Filling in team log for week 6 Finding visuals and examples for trend drivers for the trend cartogram

•