Trend Forecasting of Digital Connectivity by Anna Robbins

Digital Connectivity The impact of a Digital Revolution

Anna Robbins I

3187 words

I FMB3001 I Future Thinking I November 2015

Contents

3. Rationale

4. Digitial Connectivity?

5. Mind Map

7. Evoultion of the Trend

8. Consumer Behaviours

9. Trend Drivers

11. Fashion and Lifestyle Industry

14. The Finance Industry

17. The Health Industry

23. Insights

25. Bibliography

33. References

36. Appendix

20. The Entertainment Industry

31. List of Figures

Rationale The purpose of this report is to explore the macro trend of Digital Connectivity; aiming to recognize the impact it is having on global industries and how consumer behavior is responding. Using secondary research from industry reports, news articles and expert insight, it seeks to determine what is driving the trend, and how businesses are utilizing digital technology. Building on this information, the future of the trend will be discussed identifying potential avenues of growth.

what is digital connectivity Digital connectivity is “a world in which consumers use many different devices to experience compelling new services that integrate video, voice, and data services to provide access and ubiquitous connectivity anytime and anywhere” (Jawad, 2014). It signifies the growing trend of incorporating connectivity into innovative products and services, offering consumers seamless access via the Internet. The significance of connectivity is so pertinent in modern day life that the UN (United Nations) stated that “disconnecting people from the Internet is a human rights violation” (Kravets, 2011) Suggesting that it has become as much of a human necessity as food and shelter.

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Fig. 1 Macro Marketing Environment.

Fig. 2 Mind Map of the Digital Connectivity Macro Trend Impact.

Trend Evolution In 2007, smartphone releases transformed the concept of the mobile phone, completely reimaging its capabilities. It exposed a world of Internet accessibility on transportable devices, meaning that a connected world was always attainable for the first time’ The Smartphone has since become the most globally demanded device. “In 1994 only 25 million people had access to the internet, this year that number will reach three billion, including 2.3 billion mobile broadband subscribers.” (Juniper, 2014) The macro-trend of mobile connectivity has conceived a new “hyperconnected” consumer seeing more products re-imaged; enabling more advanced communication within the digital connected domain. Global interest in digital connectivity is greater than ever and integration into daily lifestyles has lead to the penetration of multiple industries growing a seamless ecosystem.

32m

Smartphones sold in 2006 before the iPhone

992m

Smartphones sold in 2013

1.8b

Projected Smartphones sales by 2018

Fig. 3 Euromonitor Global Smartphone Sales

Consumer Behaviours The Mobile-first consumer:

The heavy use of technology has lead to “Hyper-connected” consumers, more connected to each other and the world around them than ever before. (Holmes, 2015) As lives get increasingly busy, time is one of the greatest luxuries that they can offer. Mobile first consumers use smartphones as their initial point of daily contact/resource. People can order products before they arrive in-store, speak to relatives thousands of miles away and share experiences in real time. The emergence of social media has allowed for a ‘people-powered society’ transforming entertainment and communications. It has given people the power to “rework their own brand image through online profiles” (Futurelab Presentation, 2015) generating a culture of acceptance for differences. “15% of millennials (aged 18-10) either rely heavily on smartphones for all online activity — or don’t have any Internet connectivity beyond their smartphones” (Strout, 2015)

The Future consumer:

Bricolage living; ‘Consumers can no longer be defined by age, gender or nationality.’ (Futurelab Presentation, 2015) Psychographics is now the way to define customers through their activities, lifestyle and online networks. Consumers’ belonging to communities in different geographical locations to their physical is the future. A Global citizen will be something that everyone identifies with. 6bn emojis are now sent worldwide daily and this may become the world’s first truly universal language” (Marian, 2015) However concerns are growing over the negative impacts of constant connection. “Juggling e-mail, phone calls and other incoming information can change how people think and behave. Our ability to focus is being undermined by bursts of information” (Richtel, 2010). The loss of learning through exploration is also coming to attention, as information is always so readily available at consumer’s fingertips. What does this mean for the future of working and learning? 8

trend drivers Technological Advances: The standard smartphone is now more powerful and “does more things than the most advanced computer at IBM corporate headquarters 30 years ago.” (Levitin, 2015) becoming the ultimate tool for consumers incorporating access to their social lives, information, jobs, emails and entertainment. The result is a global mobile and ecommerce boom, with the number of connected devices surpassing 35million globally (Juniper, 2014) as consumer dependency increases, combined with devices becoming more affordable. More than three quarters of the world’s population under 30 own a smartphone and around 60% of UK consumers are using smartphones and tablets (Perkins, 2014).

Greater Access: Expanding access of mobile data and Wifi, through the introduction of 4G and fiber optic broadband, means consumers are getting a more powerful connection allowing them to achieve more at greater speeds while mobile. Companies such as “Virgin Media have hidden Wi-Fi in specially constructed paving slabs.” (Johnson, 2015) offering free public WIFI, generating continuous connection. UK coffee shop sales are currently booming, predicted to reach £8 billion by 2017, as a result of people entering to use the free WIFI connectivity (McWilliams, 2015). However if connectivity continues to grow, enabling constant availability, it creates a negative environment in which people cannot enjoy their leisure time. 9

Fig 4. Global Mobile Commerce Markets

Globalization: Digital technology has created a “flat” world, giving people have access to products, people and information from geographical locations previously unattainable to them. Research shows “developing countries share a strong desire to achieve more with their mobile devices as getting online gives access to new opportunities that they previously had no means of accessing.” (Juniper, 2014). Euromonitor predict over 70% of China will be online by 2030 (Euromonitor, 2015) highlighting the connectity growth being experienced in emerging economies. With automatic translations and universal communities on social media, the digital realm is giving way to the global citizen.

The Impact on The Fashion and Lifestyle Industry

Digital Connectivity has transformed the fashion environment and the way customers discover, share and talk about fashion. Social Media has become an “integral part of marketing and promotional activity in the industry.” (Libby, 2015) The introduction of fashion bloggers has made fashion more accessible to a wider spectrum of consumers, with a greater range of styles and influences immerging through these online platforms. WGSN argue, “fashion consumers no longer want to be sold to in the same way” (Rumsey, 2014). A greater sense of self-discovery has emerged as consumers see products on peers and bloggers online, trusting the product more as they feel they have not been marketed to. “1 in 4 Social Media users have purchased an item online or in-store after sharing or favouriting it on Twitter, Facebook or Pinterest.” (Samuel, 2013). Platforms such as Instagram and Youtube are already approaching these behaviors adding “buy now” buttons to streamline the purchase. The trend process has sped up, Catwalks are captured and posted instantly through social platforms, and “Consumers are reacting by wanting the products they see on Instagram instantly.” (Collison, 2015). The preview gives high-street brands insights to the latest styles ahead of season, encouraging trends to occur in real time, creating a more competitive landscape for retailers. These pressures mean fast fashion is gaining momentum, implicating a greater stress on the supply chain and throwaway culture amongst customers. Insights suggests customer purchases are influenced by what they see during their natural online activities, and are encouraged by instant gratification; the ability to show their fashion purchases with others online.

“Digital is now a key driver of growth for us. We think of it as a fifth store,” Selfridges MD, Anne Pitcher. (WGSN INsider, 2015.)

E-commerce (shopping online) is no longer a new concept, but its importance for retailers is immeasurable. Omni-channel retailing; the ability shop on tablets, phones and in store alike, is essential for customers and brands need to offer this while personalising the experience to stay competitive. However delivery has come a key friction for both retailers and consumers as “failed first-time delivery costs over £600 million per year in the UK” (Lee, 2015). The introduction of Click and Collect has offered a small solution to these problems as “95% of those online stated they planned to use click and collect.” (Lee, 2015) However, greater delivery alternatives are needed within the industry, and the introduction of drones could have a large impact on home deliveries. As mobile first consumers increase, the device used to shop on is evolving along with behaviors. Wired have revealed; “Consumers are using mobile to snack on digital content, driving the need for more short-form content” (Rumsey, 2014). This highlights m-commerce (mobile commerce) should diversify from e-commerce, following consumer’s conduct; diminishing attention spans and bombardment from online brands. Opportunities to create new paths to purchase by having “snack size” retailing.

Fig 5. Omni-channel retailing 13

The Impact on The Finance Industry

The first technological impact on the Finance industry was contactless payments, which enjoyed mass acceptance globally. In the UK there are 58 million active contactless cards and more than “£2.5 billion was spent using this method in the first half of 2015.” (Smithers, 2015). This uptake is driven by convenience for time poor consumers. In response to this banks invested in Mobile banking which has now become the fastest growing channel in banking worldwide. “Almost 1 in 4 US bank customers primarily uses a mobile device to access a checking account (23%)” (Monahan & Van Dyke, 2015) and 51% of UK consumers use mobile banking as part of their practical day-to-day activities (Juniper, 2014). The recent economic crisis increased caution amongst consumer spending and so Improved convenience of personal banking appeals to people, particularly mobile first consumers, by enabling them to keep on top of banking activities and gain instant access to their money.

Fig. 6 Tesco Banking Research

The introduction of instant banking has eased the ability to pay friends, babysitters and operatives. The slow death of cheques is occurring as customers turn to P2P (person to person) payment apps, which increases speed and flexibility of money exchanges. As the sharing economy trend grows, companies such as Ebay and Uber benefited from finical connectivity, “with over 162million active PayPal accounts worldwide” (MoneysEdge, 2015) As greater job environments move toward contracts, this will become an increasingly important tool; people believing digital wallets could illuminate physical cash.

The introduction of mobile payments allow consumers to pay directly from their smart phones offering a completely fuss free way for paying for on-thego goods. Visa predict by 2018 mobile in-store payments will have grown 42 times what they currently are (Visa, 2015). Awareness and consumer adoption has recently risen with Apple launching Apple pay with success, “gaining a 1.7% market share as of six weeks after its release” (Rosenblum, 2014) but the market still has with restrictions, as compatible smartphones are still limited. Mobile payments has allowed banks to gain a more detailed insight to the spending profile of their customers, helping to personalize shopping experiences in the future. Governments can use this data to gain greater insight to strong economy sectors and is an area that is predicted to grow as emerging countries join. It is estimated developing countries will drive nearly “half of all non cash payments by 2018 as it connects those who don’t have access to bricks and mortar banks, cashpoints or payment facilities.” (Juniper, 2014) The future advancements of contactless and mobile payments is promising. MasterCard are investing in enabling payment technology in everyday items to allow seamless payments for the customer. From a car that pays at the drive-through to the hood on your coat paying for your coffee, payment companies believe the “Internet of Things can enable regular items to make payments as soon as 2016” (Gokey, 2015). Social platforms such as Snapchat and Facebook are also moving in on the movement, launching Snapcash by embedding the ability to send money using the Snapchat username. Apple Watch users have given the industry confidence, as “80% say they use it for payment technology” (Williams, 2015) suggesting wearable’s create the biggest growth for mobile payments. But security is a continued threat as consumers worry about the opportunities for stealing.

The Impact on The Health Industry

The approach to personal health and wellbeing is changing as consumers adopt the “prevention” attitude rather than focusing on treatments. The introduction of technology has allowed personal healthcare to be monitored more accurately. “mHealth which can be defined as health-related mobile applications (apps) and health-related wearable devices” (YouGov, 2015) offers two key areas of growth; low confidentially apps monitoring personal wellness and high confidentially used for medical management. The uptake of low confidentially has already hit mass market as “In the UK 71% use apps to motivate exercises and 65% use them to eat better” (Statista, 2014) and “26% of 18-34 year olds are already using technology, such as wearable’s, to monitor their health.” (Lancefield, 2015). The largest area of growth is advanced medical applications allowing medical professionals to remotely monitor patients, thus removing restrictions on limited time and resources allowing better management and allocation to those in need. “More than half of UK doctors surgeries will be accepting self-collected medical information to be included in patients health records this year” (Spencer, 2015, BBC Click) Connectivity will play a vital role in improving the quality of life for people and holds the capabilities to severely reduce healthcare system costs. However a problem arises in the compatibility of advanced technology and those who would benefit most from it. An opportunity for developing simplistic technology that doesn’t alienate or scare the elderly or disabled is an important market to cater for.

Fig. 7 Mobile Health Statistics 18

Developments in 3D printing have allowed human tissue to be produced. Personalized using individuals genetic make up; tissues can be created for patients allowing aid for healing patients. The future may lead to printing of entire organs built for the host, eliminating the risk of incompatibility. (Spencer, 2015, BBC Click) This creates an opportunity for 3D printing to move into the cosmetic industry, allowing consumers to design their own body modifications before going into surgery, putting them in charge of the process. The potential impact meaning cosmetic surgery becomes more accessible to the masses. 3D printing of tattooâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s onto the skin may not only change our approach to body art, but also the medical benefits as medical stamps can â&#x20AC;&#x153;measure motion, temperature, heart rate and perspiration, or oxygen saturation.â&#x20AC;? (Whitehouse, 2015) allowing people with serious medical conditions to continuously monitor their health without feeling outcast by obvious monitoring equipment.

The Impact on The entertainment Industry

Digital Connectivity has changed the attitude of consumers who are no longer happy accepting entertainment based on mass consumption but expect their experience to built around their personal preferences. “62% of people agree technology gives them greater control over the media they consumer” (Lancefield, 2015). Rising percentages of shows are watched online and so companies should look to use data and digital connectivity to create more interactive experiences, incorporating influence from the viewer as “25 to 34 are actively changing their habits to watch less linear TV and more online video on demand, watching 10% less linear TV in 2014 than in 2013” (Deliotte, 2015)

The lines on what consumers consider entertainment are blurring. Social Fig. 8 from Entertainment Statistics media, on-demand streaming services and short video platforms such as Youtube are the newest media categories. User generated content is growing in popularity meaning consumers are turning to new digital platforms for entertainment that is produced by peers that can be snacked on and fit around their busy lifestyles. Connectivity has also transformed the music ecosystem. From Bluetooth 21

connectable headphones to Shazam enabling customers to download a song any place or time they hear it- Music has gone digital. Streaming services, such as Soundcloud, Spotify and iMusic, use connectivity to give consumers unlimited access to songs on the go. The popularity of streaming services is so penetrating that the Official Chart Company (OCC) now consider them when configuring the official UK chart as they say, “Digital downloads now account for 99.6% of all singles sold in the UK” (Lane, 2013) and the OCC want to “to reflect the growing interest in this new generation of music services” (Kreisler, 2012). Technology has created a real time connector between fans and musicians and is giving the listener greater power. Platforms such as Shazam demonstrate this, Rachel Platten shot to fame after “Fight Song” was Shazam’d so much after being played on a American Radio station she got a record deal within 72 hours. (Garvan, 2015). Brands are reacting to this power shift, Shazam’s statistics are so influential that Warner Music have created a sub label that follows Shazam data to find new artists (Garvan, 2015) allowing fans to shape the industry. The future growth of entertainment is putting customer at the center of the experience as early adopters embrace VR (Virtual Reality) headsets into in order to gain a completely immersive experience. “31% of UK consumers say they would be interested in purchasing VR headsets” (Mintel, 2015) Growing popularity creates opportunities for new visual entertainment streaming apps and platforms as the headsets primarily use smartphones. It shows promising uptake as with 360 viewing users can chose what they watch around them, fitting in with the customer behaviors. Other opportunities include streaming live events such as sport in VR giving viewers at home access to the same experience as those in the stands. A current limitation to VR is the quality; in an environment of users used to HD screens will it out them off? Vice President of Global Media Distribution, Jeff Marsilio, believes not “You need to look past what might be challenges with existing hardware— whether it’s resolution—and see the promise of the technology” (Rubin, 2015). However another threat is could it have a negative implication on the social interaction that gaming or watching films generates between customers, taking away from the experience? Concluding from the research, key patterns can be seen emerging across the explored industries. Consumers are stimulated by instant gratification; 22

Concluding Insights

social media is present across all sectors, as it becomes an integral part of consumer lifestyle. The ability to share purchases, experiences and achievements is essential to millennials and younger generations as peerto-peer communication grows in importance. As customers turn away from brands to social platforms for reviews and influence on purchase decisions, an opportunity arises to skip taking customers to a brand based location such as an app, website or store and to keep the transaction in their current activities. A research opportunity would be to understand how consumers feel about brands in their social network spaces; whether it is welcomed or feels like aggressive selling. A new avenue for consumers and brands could be utilizing digital connectivity by creating integrated peer based shopping pages. Apps and digital services that improve the control and quality of life is a strong pattern across all industries explored. Allowing consumers greater flexibility with distributing money, time and health. People are looking for connectivity to streamline their lives taking out the mundane tasks, leaving them more time to focus on themselves and the things they are interested in. Convenience technology shows the largest area of uptake and further investigation could be done into comparing what aspects of life consumer want the most convenience in, and which they feel created a rushed, bombardment in their daily activities. For brands, collecting algorithms and data in order to personalize experiences for consumers is essential in keeping competitive. Customers want services that react to them in real time, learning from their preferences and habits. Customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s attitude to gaining information is more demanding than ever; they want it fast and bite-size. Lead by apps such as Uber and tinder, it is evident that brands now need to cater for personal needs instantly. Location based technology creates opportunities for supporting consumers by always being available near to them when called upon, rather than trying to encourage consumers to them through marketing. Further research could be done to understand how personalized consumers expect their experiences to be and what information they feel comfortable sharing with brands. A final avenue for further exploration is user generated content leading the entertainment industry. As consumers become more interesting in what their friends and family posting, bloggers and social media stars become household names; new avenues appear. An interesting field of study will be to see how and where downtime is now spent, and what people are really engaging with for entertainment purposes.

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Fig 5. Omni-channel Retailing (2015) Transperfect.com. Online [avaliable at:] http://www.transperfect.com/images/omni-channel-circle.png

Fig 6. Mobile Statistic (2015) Tesco Banking. Online. [avaliable at:] http://corporate.tescobank.com/assets/images/cms/Infographic_mobile_banking_1.jpg. Image made by Author [Accessed 10/11/15]

Fig 7. Mobile Heath Uptake Statistics (2015) Visual.ly. Online [avaliable at:] http://visual.ly/social-medical [accessed] 10/11/15

Fig 7. Entertainment Statistics (2015) Anon. Online. [avaliable at:] http://cdn. slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/drivers-of-video-streaming-infographic-131002120216-phpapp01-thumbnail-4.jpg?cb=1380715549 [accessed] 10/11/15 31

Connected Devices Visual (2015) online [avaliable at] http://www.virdata.com/ wp-content/uploads/Pages/connectedDevices1.png [accessed] 10/11/15 Wifi Icon (2015) Online [avaliable at] http:// www.tangeroutlet.com/images/ipad-map/ WIFI-Icon.gif [10/11/15] Connected Crowd (2015) Online [avaliable at] http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/03/14/ article-2293118-18A402A4000005DC268_964x598.jpg Connected Diagram (2015) Online [avaliable at] http://futureboard.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ Services-Connected-Devices.png [10/11/15] Millenials (2015) Online [avaliable at] http://www.ploymint.com/millennials-saviors-u-s-economy-needs/ [10/11/15] Tech World (2015) Online [avaliable at] https://getsocial4630.files.wordpress. com/2015/02/142533837.jpg [10/11/15] Fashion Show (2015) Online [avaliable at] http:// wersm.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/wersmLondon-Fashion-Weeks-Social-Media-Takeover-lfw. png Mobile Banking (2015) Online [avaliable at] http://ichef-1. bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/73919000/jpg/_73919950_ mobilebanking.jpg [10/11/15] MasterCard (2015) Online [avaliable at] http://www. true-telecom.com/images/contactless.jpg [10/11/15]

Health Apps(2015) Online [avaliable at] http:// www.christopherpollard.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/1672553-slide-smart-pgc-app-6.png [10/11/15]

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appendix