The Prospects and Challenges of an Enhanced V4-India cooperation: The Right Time to Engage? by Antall József Tudásközpont

A J R C A N A LY S E S

ANTALL JÓZSEF RESEARCH CENTRE AJRC2021E17

Norbert Miklós

THE PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF AN ENHANCED V4-INDIA COOPERATION: THE RIGHT TIME TO ENGAGE?

d i g i t a l i s t u d a s t a r. a j t k . h u

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ANTALL JÓZSEF RESEARCH CENTRE

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THE PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF AN ENHANCED V4-INDIA COOPERATION: THE RIGHT TIME TO ENGAGE? MIKLÓS NORBERT

INTRODUCTION In recent years, bilateral engagement between the Visegrad Group (V4) and India has been accelerating. As a result, the number of topics addressed at high-level meetings has increased, while at the same time the European Union (EU) also started deepening its engagement with India. For several reasons this trend has substantial effects. The economic rise of India in recent decades, with its average 7% annual GDP growth, the growing importance of the subcontinent and a more assertive China have led many analysts to seriously consider the possibility of an approaching Asian century. The recent growing tensions between the United States (US) and China, and the increasing disagreements between the EU and China paved the way for the recently adopted Indo-Pacific strategies, where India becomes a key player and a major counterweight to China. India’s democratic political system makes the country appealing to Western nations. This is one of the reasons, why the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, where India is one of the four nations of the dialogue besides Australia, Japan and the US, has been brought back to life by the Trump administration. The aim of the concept is to uphold a “free and open IndoPacific”1 that is built on the foundation of a rules-based order, where those values dominate, that have underpinned the peace and prosperity of the region Indo-Pacific for the last decades. The international role of India has become more important for like-minded partners around the globe, and this led to a new level of engagement, both from the US and the EU. A new format of EU-India dialogue has been established at the first EU-India leaders’ summit, held in Portugal on May 8 2021, attended by the 27 EU member states’ prime ministers and the Indian prime minister. It is clear, that the EU, as well as India want to refashion their relations, and bring their cooperation to a higher level. But what are the key obstacles, what are the possibilities, and what role can the Visegrad Group play in this cooperation? The aim of this article is to provide a more comprehensive insight on the topic of an enhanced EU-India cooperation, and to explore the possibilities of an extended India-V4 cooperation, which would have undeniable gains for both sides. It is worthwhile to examine the opportunities for deepening relations between the Visegrad Group and India, while also exploring the missing institutional arrangements that hinder the evolution of the cooperation.

A FREE AND OPEN INDO-PACIFIC: Advancing a shared vision. Department of State, United States of America. U.S. Department of State. 4 November 2019. <https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-andOpen-Indo-Pacific-4Nov2019.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

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THE BRIEF HISTORIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE EU–INDIA BILATERAL RELATIONS UNTIL THE EU-INDIA LEADER’S MEETING IN 2021 Even though, the EU-India relations date back as early as the 1960’s, the South-Asian country’s closeness to the Soviet Union helped the subcontinent during the second half of the 20th century to maintain relatively close contacts to East-European socialist states as well. After the cold war however, the EU-India ties have started to pick up pace. In 1994 the EU-India Cooperation Agreement has been signed, that ultimately took the bilateral relationship to the next level. A decade later, at the 5th EU-India summit in 2004 the relationship has officially been upgraded to a ‘Strategic Partnership’, and a year later a Joint Action Plan was put in motion to further strengthen dialogue and deepen the relationship.2 Since 2007, the two sides were in a continuous dialogue aimed at creating a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the so-called Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA).3 Following the declaration of an independent India in 1947, the South Asian country maintained relatively close bilateral ties with its former colonial ruler Great Britain, while also building economically significant ties with France and the Federal Republic of Germany – the two other established economic powers of the European continent. Even though the EuropeanIndian relations have had their ups-and-downs during the last more than half a century, after the fall of the Soviet Union, with which the South Asian country had relatively good relations as well, India started seeking closer engagement in higher-level bilateral dialogues with the Western European nations via foreign ministerial visits until nowadays. Unfortunately, most of these summits have often been labelled as “high on rhetoric and low on substance”,4 because of the stalled and halted agreements. Disregarding these factors, since the EUIndia cooperation picked up pace, wide-ranging topics of collaboration emerged, which included cooperation on the field of nuclear energy, maritime cooperation, climate change, data protection and regulations and even satellite navigation systems, just to name a few. In the meantime, the economic relations of India and the EU have been gradually evolving, as EU member states have become India’s largest trading partner in the beginning of the 21st century. India’s export mainly comprised of the service industry, which has been on a steady rise until the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU was the source of most Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) arriving to the South Asian country. An important fact to consider is that nowadays India is one of the few nations which runs a surplus in services trading with the EU.5 With the expansion of trade relations, other kinds of cooperation formats have begun as well, for example on the fields of science, education and culture. India-EU Relations. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. mea.gov.in. <https://www.mea.gov.in/ Portal/ForeignRelation/India-EU_Relations.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 2

3 India-EU Broad Based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) negotiations. Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India. commerce.gov.in. <https://commerce.gov.in/international-trade/tradeagreements/indias-current-engagements-in-rtas/india-eu-broad-based-trade-and-investment-agreement-btianegotiations/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Neena Gill: ‘Time to de-ice’ EU-India relations. The Parliament Magazine. 18 November 2014. <https://www. theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/time-to-deice-euindia-relations > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Countries and regions: India. European Commission. 3 June 2021. <https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/ countries-and-regions/countries/india/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 5

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At the same time, many other bilateral treaties and Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) have been signed by the EU and India. These agreements mostly revolve around the topics of science & technology, information and communications technology, customs cooperation, nuclear fusion energy and energy research and innovation, just to name a few. In 2013 however, after a six-year long period of negotiations, talks on the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement broke down and the projected creation of a formal and institutionalized trade pact about a free trade zone between the EU and India has collapsed. As analysts found, the reason behind the unsuccessful conclusion of negotiations was a mismatch of ambitions and expectations.6 The key point of the discussions during the summits contained the inflow of FDI and the market access for goods and services, regulating and safeguarding the financial sector, cooperation on tax evasion, overseas financing of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in India, technology transfer restrictions and trade controls. This indeed broad-based agreement would have given a stable and almost comprehensive footing not only for economic cooperation, but for a possible political cooperation based on the previously well-functioning economic ties, but after seven rounds of negotiations, the two sides still could not manage to find a consensus.7 The main problems cited by European analysts here are the Indian trade laws and the restrictiveness of the regulatory environment, which the government did not want to change at the time. After a three-year hiatus, in 2016, talks have resumed and the President of the European Commission declared his support for the continuation of the negotiations. As it later turned out, these talks were not as fruitful as leaders from both sides have previously hoped for. In 2020, the EU and India once again agreed to resume the dialogue on the stalled FTA, and finally decided to discuss the issue on a virtual summit, which was to be hosted by Portugal on May 8, 2021.8 There were many reasons for this restart. One key motivation was the unexploited potential of the emerging Indian market. Another considerable factor was the growing concern about China’s influence in Europe and the Western world. The East Asian giant has been declared a strategic rivalby the EU9 just before the COVID-19 pandemic erupted. The emerging vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept also plays a key role. According to the American strategy,10 a rules-based area is set to be created and upheld with the help of the supporting like-minded democracies with close ties to the

Ukraine Issue: EU Wants India to Leverage Ties with Russia. Outlook India. 18 February 2015. <https://www.outlookindia.com/newswire/story/Ukraine-Issue-EU-Wants-India-to-Leverage-Ties-WithRussia/881927 > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 6

Countries and regions: India. European Commission. <https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-andregions/countries/india/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

8 EU-India leaders' meeting via video conference, Porto, 8 May 2021. European Council. 8 May 2021. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2021/05/08/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

China: From partner to rival. In: What Think Tanks are Thinking 2 October 2020. European Parliament. 2 October 2020. <https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/659261/EPRS_BRI(2020)659261_EN.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 9

A FREE AND OPEN INDO-PACIFIC: Advancing a Shared Vision. Department of State, United States of America. 4 November 2019. <https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific4Nov2019.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 10

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region, namely the US, India, Japan and Australia. In the first half of 2021 the European Union adopted the “EU Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific”.11 The institutionalized dialogues began focusing on specific key issues, and before that in 2020 the EU-India partnership has made a significant step forward as a Joint Statement after the 15th EUIndia Summit has been published during the summer of 2020, which contained the explicit goal of strengthening the EU-India Strategic Partnership.12 These elements combined led to a more constructive approach for the cooperation as both sides realized that their partnership should not only include trade relations but a deeper political and security cooperation, mainly in the Indo-Pacific region, too. The frozen trade talks and the EU’s important role in India’s foreign economic activities, alongside with the EU’s FDI to India, all helped the two parties to realize their shared ambitions for a closer cooperation. This means that since the EU-India summit in 2020, the bilateral cooperation achieved more progress than for a very long time before. While the economic partnership could still be considered as the most important factor for enhancing further cooperation, the still unexploited potential of deepened relations and both parties’ expectations may help the two sides explore new ways of cooperation.

THE 2021 EU-INDIA LEADERS’ MEETING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR AN ENHANCED COOPERATION On May 8, 2021 the EU-India leaders’ virtual summit took place, hosted by Portugal as the current holder of the Presidency of the Council of the European Union. The much anticipated dialogue was organized in an online format. The leaders of the 27 EU member states, alongside with the current President of the EU Council and the President of the European Commission were present in Porto, while India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined via video conference.13 As the summit has been organized when a devastating second wave of COVID-19 has been sweeping through India and after the EU’s adoption of its own Indo-Pacific strategy, the two most populous democracies (if counting the citizens of the EU as one) hoped to revive their slumped relations. According to a video conference co-hosted by ORF and CEPS titled EU-India Thinks Tanks Summit: What to expect from the EU-India Leaders’ meeting?14 analysts believed that the meeting between India and the EU member states has been expected to deliver serious results, namely in the field of economic cooperation by relaunching the previously halted

Eva Pejsova: The EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy in 10 Points. The Diplomat. 20 April 2021. <https://thediplomat. com/2021/04/the-eus-indo-pacific-strategy-in-10-points/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021

Joint Statement - 15th EU-India Summit, 15 July 2020. European Council. 15 July 2020. <https://www. consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/07/15/joint-statement-15th-eu-india-summit-15-july-2020/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 12

13 EU-India leaders' meeting via video conference, Porto, 8 May 2021. European Council. 8 May 2021. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2021/05/08/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

ORF-CEPS EU-India Think Tanks Summit: What to expect from the EU-India Leaders’ meeting?. CEPS Think Thank on youtube.com. 7 May 2021. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68oxis1A3Wo > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 14

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FTA negotiations, security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, technology cooperation, building supply-chain resilience and further deepening climate change cooperation. Because of the increasingly severe health crisis in India caused by the pandemic, the handling of the situation with the help of the EU could prove to be a good basis for further cooperation. This of course has been offset by a positive step towards an enhanced cooperation as the EU-India Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap to 2025 has been published after the 15th EU-India Summit in July 2020 as a guide for joint action for the next five-year period.15 The document contains 118 points with topics ranging from foreign policy, security and human rights through trade, investment, business and economic cooperation, touching upon the sustainable modernization of the partnership (meaning focusing more on creating a green development model), while taking into account the topic of global governance, also mentioning people-to-people ties and the institutional architecture of the EU-India Strategic Partnership. According to the EU’s proposal, the enhanced cooperation is based on “sharing values of democracy, rule of law and human rights, are equally convinced of the necessity to preserve the rules-based international order and effective multilateralism” based on their “common interest in each other's security, prosperity and sustainable development”, in which way India and the EU will “endeavour to develop further their Strategic Partnership, based on this Roadmap”.16 Taking into account the comprehensive nature of this roadmap it is evident, that, the EU and India once again seem to want to create a broad-based bilateral agreement. This time this is not only because of economic and social cooperation, but also because of the need to respond to the more complicated international situations as well (Indo-Pacific strategy of the EU in 2021).17 At the same time, dialogue between the parties has become more important, since both India and the EU realized that many areas of the cooperation could help the two sides converge around shared interests in the future. From India’s perspective, many issues that the country is currently dealing with, could also be perceived as global issues. These must be addressed in a collaborative manner where partnerships are absolutely vital.18 From the EU’s perspective, the drive for an enhanced cooperation can seem more layered, as the EU not only wants to diversify its relations in Asia, but also wants to leverage India’s increasing posture in the region. This comes with the growing desire of the smaller member states of the European Union to engage with India, which could ultimately boost the whole EU-India cooperation in the process by interacting with sub-regions (the Balkans or Iberia) and regional cooperation formats (V4 Cooperation) of Europe instead of individual nations.

15 EU-India Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap to 2025. European Council. 20 January 2020. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45026/eu-india-roadmap-2025.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

EU-India Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap to 2025. European Council. 20 January 2020. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45026/eu-india-roadmap-2025.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 16

17 Eva Pejsova: The EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy in 10 Points. The Diplomat. 20 April 2021. <https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/the-eus-indo-pacific-strategy-in-10-points/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021

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The format of the meeting also carries importance, as instead of a traditional summit, a leaders’ meeting has been organized. Each EU member state’s leader got the chance to meet face-to-face with the Indian Prime Minister, which shows a serious commitment towards the diversification of partnerships by the EU. India is reaching out to various sub-regions and shows its gradual effort to take its partners seriously, just like the EU’s commitment and growing interest is shown by the publication of its Indo-Pacific strategy. Besides the Indo-Pacific security domain however, where the maritime security dialogue has the potential of reaching new heights in the cooperation, the connectivity partnership (e.g. the construction of joint infrastructure projects around the world), the talks of an investment protection agreement, the questions on human rights and the necessary resources for further deepening the cooperation could also play major role in creating a sustainable and well-working partnership for the future. The main results of the EU-India leaders' meeting organized on 8 May 2021 have been published by the European Council,19 including a document on the EU-India Connectivity Partnership and a comprehensive joint statement by the two sides. In short, the meeting reinforced the EU-India strategic partnership, underpinned by the shared values of both parties, a new connectivity partnership has been launched, and maybe as the most anticipated step, the leaders agreed to resume the negotiations on a free trade agreement. While delving into more details, it was clear that there have been many key areas of enhancing relations on which the foundation of a future cooperation is going to be based. The most urgent topic was related to the creation of global health preparedness and resilience. Since the EU member states have already mobilized more than 100 million euro worth of emergency equipment, the solidarity with India was also highlighted. Both parties supported a universal, safe, equitable and affordable access to COVID-19 vaccines, diagnosis and treatment, alongside with the support of the COVAX Facility, which aims at enhancing vaccine production capacities and later on distribution. The EU and India also voiced their support for strengthening the World Health Organization’s (WHO) preparedness for the response to health emergencies, and the need of the organisation’s reform. As many analysts and policymakers hoped before the meeting, the dialogue gave a fresh and increased momentum for EU-India trade relations, which have been gradually rising with the already well-functioning bilateral trade of goods and services. Inspecting the numbers, these transactions grew by 50% between 2010 and 2019, which collectively amounted to more than 110 billion euro20 and have grown even more since. There has also been a solid consensus on resuming negotiations on a mutually beneficial free trade agreement, finding solutions for market access issues and launching negotiations on an investment protection agreement. The EU and India agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation on the reform of the World Trade Organization before its meeting in November 2021. 19 EU-India leaders' meeting via video conference, Porto, 8 May 2021. European Council. 8 May 2021. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2021/05/08/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Infographic - EU-India trade relations. European Council. 2021. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/ infographics/eu-india-trade-relations/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

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Ecological protection and fostering green growth also played an important role during the summit. Key issues included cooperation on climate change, protecting biodiversity and minimizing pollution. The achieving of the goals of the Paris Agreement has been emphasised. It was agreed that the 2016 EU-India Clean Energy and Climate Partnership should be strengthened. The main goal of this document is to “deepen cooperation to speed up the deployment of renewable energy, promote energy efficiency, collaborate on smart grid and storage technology, and modernize the electricity market.”21 Another important aspect was the decarbonisation of the industry—and transport sectors, which could help accelerate a resource efficient partnership. The launch of a connectivity partnership has also been discussed in detail, as the two sides adopted a new partnership for “transparent, inclusive, and rules-based connectivity between the EU and India and with third countries and regions (including Africa, Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific).”22 The goal of this partnership is to provide “private investments in high-standard physical infrastructure across all sectors: digital, transport, energy, and people-to-people”. The presentation of this partnership comes after the launch of a similar partnership between the EU and Japan in 2019. The topic of digital transformation was also on the agenda. The potential of the creation of quality jobs and improving citizens’ lives led to a desire for close cooperation on global digital standards, also in relation to 5G. The EU and India also agreed to the further enhancement of regulatory frameworks to ensure the protection of personal data and privacy. The parties agreed to launch the Joint Task Force on Artificial Intelligence. Even after their previous disagreements about this topic, the EU and India reaffirmed their commitment to all human rights and promised to be committed to the EU-India human rights dialogue. The two sides also agreed to intensify cooperation in international human rights fora. With regards to foreign and security affairs, the recent strengthening of EU-India cooperation on international security has been most welcomed by the participants, which included non-proliferation and disarmament, countering terrorism, radicalisation and violent extremism, maritime security, cyber security and other threats. The two sides’ commitment to the comprehensive reform of the UN Security Council was also highlighted in an attempt to reflect contemporary realities and enhance transparency. The commitment towards a free, open, inclusive and rules-based Indo-Pacific space has also been stressed, where among other issues respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, democracy, rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight and unimpeded lawful commerce have been highlighted. The recent adoption of the EU’s strategy for cooperation with the Indo-Pacific was welcomed. Further strengthening of EU-India cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region is also a desired outcome. At the same time, the EU and India also committed themselves for enhancing their cooperation with African partners to support a prosperous, peaceful, democratic and resilient Africa. 21 Joint Statement EU-India Leaders’ Meeting, 8 May 2021. European Council. 8 May 2021. <https://www. consilium.europa.eu/media/49516/eu-india-connectivity-partnership-8-may-2.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Joint Statement EU-India Leaders’ Meeting, 8 May 2021. European Council. 8 May 2021. <https://www. consilium.europa.eu/media/49516/eu-india-connectivity-partnership-8-may-2.pdf > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 22

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The Joint statement published after the Summit23 highlighted five key topics: • • • •

•

Investing in the EU-India Strategic Partnership showed the commitment to the continuation of a meaningful cooperation; Building global health preparedness and resilience — COVID-19 and beyond meant the acceleration of the creation of a quick and responsive mechanism to global crises; Protecting our planet and fostering green growth focused on the cooperation and shared commitment of sustainable and green development; Fostering inclusive growth through trade, connectivity and technology showed the commitment of further enhancement of bilateral trade and the creation of resilient supply chains alongside with the multi-layered approach of connectivity; Striving for a safer, prosperous and more democratic world included the agreements on human rights, the creation and upholding of a safe and rules-based Indo-Pacific based on multilateral cooperation.

In light of these key areas, it can be stated, that the summit gave a huge boost for the development of bilateral ties. The previous rhetoric filled and empty discussions seem to have been replaced with a more serious strategic partnership that is full with momentum, ultimately carrying more than just symbolic relevance – at least based on the serious tone of the last few summits. Since the EU does not usually host meetings in such a format, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission claimed that the summit itself was a landmark in relations and an extraordinary meeting,24 and at the same time New Delhi called the meeting a watershed moment in the EU-India partnership,25 but judging the success of the summits must wait until more concrete outcomes have been presented. Besides the reaffirmation of shared commitments reached in earlier summits, which have sometimes been deemed as shallow and empty, the real results of the 2021 meeting are showcased by • • •

firstly: the serious tone and format of the meeting, secondly: the talks on the resumption of the stalled broad-based FTA negotiations, which previously soured the EU-India relationship, thirdly: the establishment of a connectivity partnership with substance, artificial intelligence task force and a joint working group on resilient supply chains.26

23 Joint Statement - 15th EU-India Summit, 15 July 2020. European Council. 15 July 2020. <https://www. consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/07/15/joint-statement-15th-eu-india-summit-15-july-2020/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 24 Gulshan Sachdeva: India-EU leaders’ meeting gives new momentum to ties. moneycontrol. 10 May 2021. <https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/india-eu-leaders-meeting-gives-new-momentum-to-ties-6875651.html > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 25 Transcript of Special Virtual Media Briefing by Secretary (West) following India-EU Leaders’ Meeting. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. 8 May 2021. <https://mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/33858/Transcript_of_ Special_Virtual_Media_Briefing_by_Secretary_West_following_IndiaEU_Leaders_Meeting > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Gulshan Sachdeva: India-EU leaders’ meeting gives new momentum to ties. moneycontrol. 10 May 2021. <https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/india-eu-leaders-meeting-gives-new-momentum-to-ties-6875651.html > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 26

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This step forward could help India and the EU in finding a new direction for the previously abandoned FTA negotiations, possibly even starting from scratch. It may take some time to resume the actual trade negotiations, especially considering the implications caused by the pandemic and Brexit. The approval to launch the negotiations on the agreements on investment protection and geographical indicators show a desire for quick and meaningful discussions. With more than 75 billion dollar worth of FDI to India by the 27 EU member states, the European bloc is one of the largest investors in the sub-continent.27 During the last decade some big Indian companies also began more seriously investing in Europe. Even though Delhi terminated its Bilateral Investment Treaties with a number of EU member states in recent years,28 the new FTA and investment protection negotiations could help India and the EU in reaching a balanced and comprehensive agreement on multiple areas of trade and FDI rules. The EU-India connectivity partnership also plays a key role between the two sides, and their international relations beyond their bilateral cooperation. It includes broadening the cooperation on various aspects, including the digital and energy sectors and the physical infrastructure sector too. These steps aim to help construct high-quality infrastructure in India and its neighbourhood, eventually extending to Africa, Central Asia and the IndoPacific. The EU has already signed such a partnership with Japan previously,29 which could mean a smoother and quicker discussion, since the foundations are already present. The connectivity partnership can be viewed as a response to counter the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is important to note that besides the similarity of this infrastructural projects, the EU’s strategy is financed by multilateral agreements and the private sector, contrary to the Chinese projects, which are funded by the state. If the proposed meetings, negotiations and cooperation proceed well, then one might expect an indeed fruitful collaboration. It will also be interesting to see the transformation of a self-reliant India into a much more cooperative power, after in the recent decade the subcontinent started drifting towards a more nationalistic approach of politics. The many aspects of cooperation can of course still be deemed viable, but for a more enhanced EU-India relationship, the domestic narrative and institutional barriers must be dealt with.

Infographic - EU-India trade relations. European Council. 2021. <https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/ infographics/eu-india-trade-relations/> Accessed: 11 June 2021.

28 Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs)/Agreements. Department of Economic Affairs of India. <https://dea.gov.in/bipa > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Countries and regions: Japan. European Commission. 26 April 2021. <https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/ countries-and-regions/countries/japan/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021 29

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THE CURRENT STATE OF THE INDIA–VISEGRAD FOUR COOPERATION As the EU-India relationship is gaining momentum, not just the collective Union, but many individual European countries turn their attention towards the subcontinent. This is in particular the case for the V4 group, which started taking the cooperation with India seriously in recent years. The deepening of relationships began by the organizing of high-level meetings, enhancing mutual understanding and thus creating platforms for further cooperation. The intentions seem to be clear from both sides, as in December 2020 Indian External Affairs Minister, Jaishankar, met with the envoys of the V4 countries for a discussion on enhanced future cooperation. After the meeting, Jaishankar even tweeted that he was looking forward to strengthening India’s partnership with the Visegrad Group,30 signalling the Indian side’s intention for further meetings and enhancing relations. This came on the back of a previous meeting in 2019, where at a three-day visit to Hungary Minister Jaishankar held discussions on multiple areas of cooperation with the Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó. Indian sources broke the news as India exploring a possible partnership with the Visegrad Group, and analysts observed, that India might be trying to find viable platforms of engagement, such as the Chinese engagement with the 16 European countries within the 16+1 framework in 2012.31 Based on the initial articles published on this topic, the relatively uncharted territory of Central-Eastern Europe might provide India with a huge opportunity regarding its cooperation with other parts of the world. The final announcements contained that the Hungarian side decided to join the International Solar Alliance, which is based in India. At the same time, Hungary would focus on five main areas of cooperation with India, namely film production, digitalization, water management, solar energy and pharmaceuticals in order to establish deeper tires with India. In response to these positive outcomes, Minister Jaishankar highlighted the positive trend of Indian investments in Hungary and agreed on intensifying bilateral interaction between the two countries, mainly in the fields of education, tourism and science. Based on these facts, there is a developing trend towards a cooperation that can deliver results. An additional factor to be considered here is that the cooperation with India would work much differently than that with China. The democratic system of the South Asian country would not create a political dilemma when enhancing ties, unlike with China, where the EU’s primary principles are creating political tension between China and the EU.32 The closeness of India to the US is also a considerable factor, as the support of Washington might help to develop the ties more rapidly and effectively. India’s steady average economic

30 S Jaishankar Meets Envoys of Visegrad Group, Discusses India-EU Relations. ndtv.com. 18 December 2020. <https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/s-jaishankar-meets-envoys-of-visegrad-group-discusses-india-eurelations-2340608 > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 31 Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, ET Bureau: India explores partnership with Visegrad Group in Central Europe with Jaishankar visit. The Economic Times. 27 August 2019. <https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ politics-and-nation/india-explores-partnership-with-visegrad-group-in-central-europe-with-jaishankar-visit/ articleshow/70862243.cms?from=mdr > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 32 Vladislav Gulevich: India and Visegrad Four: Meeting Each Other Halfway. modern diplomacy. 23 October 2019. <https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2019/10/23/india-and-visegrad-four-meeting-each-other-halfway/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

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growth of around 7-8% since the liberalization of the economy in 199133 also plays an important role when considering it as a potential partner for cooperation for the V4 countries. In addition, since the wave of signing of partnerships began between the EU and India, the subcontinent’s rising vision for global issues paired with the realization of India’s potential by the Central-Eastern European member states, which could help in paving the way for a new way of cooperation. This kind of new momentum started in 2004 and was present until 2009 when it somewhat stalled.34 After the meeting in 2021, the momentum seems to be back.35 With India being an already important trading partner for many countries in Europe, and with the new trend of diversification of ties in Asian for EU member states, different kinds of layered cooperation began to advance between the European nations and India. These partnerships are usually based on the realization of economic growth potential on the South Asian subcontinent and the consequential wave of modernization it brings as foreign capital is arriving to the country. In turn, this could help such modernization projects to be very profitable for both the EU member states and India in the future. More recently, as the EU and US started advocating for a bigger role of India globally, it can also be stated that the adversarial role of China for the West also helped the Southern Asian nation to become more important globally. On the other hand, the role of Central-Eastern Europe has also become more important for India recently, as the institutional linkages were present before the new way of enhancement of cooperation began, which in turn could ultimately lead to a smoother process of building deepened ties. For these reasons, there is more trust and a more solid foundation for these relationships, which, if coupled with India’s political goodwill, could make the Visegrad region strategically more important to India. From the V4 countries’ perspective, the increased attention on India can be explained by the subcontinent’s sheer size, the economic interests and India’s huge market, the growing recognition of India’s strategic importance and most fundamentally, the shared values in a complex geopolitical context in the Indo-Pacific region, mostly meaning the stability and peaceful prosperity of the region. Based on this, it is no surprise that the V4 countries want to be a part of the growing EUIndia partnership. With the growing disappointment in China’s assertiveness with regards to a lot of EU member states, and the competition between these two actors, the undelivered promises and the strong ideological addition to the conduct of foreign policy, the possible enhancement of ties between the EU and India seemed like a viable solution as a response to the previously mentioned China-factor.36

India GDP Growth Rate 1961-2021. macrotrends.net. <https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/gdpgrowth-rate > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 33

34 Aman Malik, Suneera Tandon: India received over $300 billion FDI since 2000, says government. mint. 29 January 2014. <https://www.livemint.com/Politics/Vp8qvkSZ8QUiNpVIUBhhvK/FDI-flows-into-India-grew17-to-28-billion-in-2013-UNCTAD.html > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

Niti Kiran: India bags highest ever FDI at $67.5 billion in first 9 months of FY21. Business Today. 5 March 2021. <https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/india-bags-highest-ever-fdi-at-675-billion-in-first-9months-of-fy21/story/433027.html > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 35

Alicia Garcia-Herrero: Europe's disappointing investment deal with China. Nikkei Asia. 1 January 2021. <https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Europe-s-disappointing-investment-deal-with-China > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 36

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Since there are hardly any disagreements in major global issues between India and the V4, there is a solid foundation for the cooperation. It is also important to note, that there is a serious underlying potential still left unrealized when discussing cooperation. India just recently started to become interested in increasing its trade and investment in the region, which could serve as a stepping stone for an improvement of relationships, that could eventually lead to a solid political cooperation in return.37 India also started looking at Europe more through somewhat of a grouping mechanism, just as the India-Nordic summit38 and the V4-India meetings show. This is a completely understandable way of conducting higher-level meetings, since the size of India and its global prowess can make it hard for the foreign ministers and prime ministers of such a nation to conduct bilateral visits with every European country. After the establishment of a stable dialogue between India and the V4 group the signing of some meaningful strategic partnership documents could be helpful, since the institutionalization mechanism would help with the development of already existing ties, together with forming new kinds of linkages between the two sides. As the V4 countries are beginning to become strategically more important, for example because of them being among the most important countries for China in the 16+1 cooperation, India’s focus should be on deepening the relationships with these countries on two levels. Firstly, within the EU framework, after a successfully enhanced cooperation between India and the EU and secondly by building strong institutional mechanisms via bilateral and regional summits. The major economic interests from India in the V4 region could help with this kind of development, as the already active Indian companies and people-to-people ties could help evolve the relationships even more effectively and faster. If there was a possibility of legal migration with help from governments and clear requirements, that could also help discover new areas of cooperation between India and the V4. A strategic partnership based on the V4’s already existing frameworks with Japan39 and South Korea40 (V4+Japan, V4+South Korea format) could serve as a solid foundation for a similar collaboration with India. If India is also willing to engage, on the backbone of an already working trade-, investment- and economic cooperation a necessary and regular consultation mechanism could be established. As a start, a possible business summit could be the first step towards these kind of enhancements, which could help to provide capacities and expertise from both sides at the same time. Since India does not need a gateway to the Western part of Europe, as it already has quite sophisticated relations with most of those countries, the possibility of focusing on the V4 nations not as a stepping

Relations Between India and the Visegrad Group: Challenges and Opportunities. Antall József Tudásközpont on youtube.com. 29 April 2021. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxNLRPufITU > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 37

38 Sidhant Sibal: India will work with Nordic-Baltic countries for greener, smarter, digital & innovation-led future: S Jaishankar. WION. 5 November 2020. <https://www.wionews.com/india-news/india-will-work-with-nordicbaltic-countries-for-greener-smarter-digital-innovation-led-future-s-jaishankar-340935 > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 39 V4-Japan Joint Research Program. Visegrad Fund. <https://www.visegradfund.org/apply/grants/v4-japanjoint-research-program/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

V4 + Korea Jointly Assist Fight Against the Pandemic in Georgia and Ukraine. Visegrad Fund. 1 February 2021. <https://www.visegradfund.org/news/v4_korea_against_pandemic/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 40

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stone, but as a proper place for investments could be enormously profitable for both sides. From the other perspective, the well-educated and relatively cheap workforce of India could also be helpful for Europe. The investments from the V4 countries in India, could also work as capitalization on India’s unexplored potential. Since there are hardly any disagreements between the V4 and India with regards to these kinds of partnerships, a solid foundation could be established in specific sectors of cooperation. As India has its own network in the Western world, the earlier mentioned linkages between Central-Eastern Europe and India could be utilized to their full potential, without any fear of India using the V4 countries to its advantage to create better relations with Western Europe. Unfortunately, the connection between the private sector in certain technologies between Central-Eastern European and Indian companies is not yet strong enough to be built upon, but it is important to note that the huge Indian market has the potential to be profitable for the small- and medium-sized enterprises based in Eastern Europe. It is mainly because of the relatively cheap labour in India and the greater market scale of the country, which could also boost the Indian economy. It is important to highlight that serious multi-level work, such as governmental, private sector and people-topeople levels, is required to help these opportunities to be successful. From the V4’s perspective, India as an emerging market has the possibility to provide huge market for multiple sectors. These sectors could also be improved and operated with investment from the Visegrad nations. The other side of the coin is that there is no protection of investment regulations in place between India and the EU yet, which hinders the inflow of capital to the subcontinent. A lot could and should be done on this front. The new agreement, which is currently under discussion, would need to involve some kind of guarantee and safety net for invested capital, proper regulatory work and should create a legal framework, that could not only help European companies make profit, but could ultimately help the modernization process of India as well. Based on the activity of Poland41 and Hungary42 in recent years with regards to the different kinds of education and social agreements with India, the possibility of forming strong intercultural ties and interchanges would also help the sides to engage with each other. Still, India needs to be more active, and the government must do much more, since the friendly nature of the relationships allows for a more fruitful cooperation. Ultimately, the potential needs to be realized from both sides, and such policies must be implemented, that help convince businesses and governments of European nations that India is open for business. One such policy could be the Make In India campaign.43 Although, this is a great start, but it is not enough for the investors to rush to India in an attempt to invest their capital, as there are certain caveats, which have been addressed in the previous paragraphs. If the business sectors got closer, and people-to-people ties are enhanced, that would 41 Poland in India. Website of the Republic of Poland. <https://www.gov.pl/web/india/bilateral-relations > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

India-Hungary Relations. Embassy of India to Hungary and Bosnia & Herzegovina. November 2020. <https://www.eoibudapest.gov.in/page/india-hungary-relations/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021. 42

MAKE IN INDIA. makeinindia.com. <https://www.makeinindia.com/ > Accessed: 11 June 2021.

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ultimately lead to the strengthening of bilateral relationships. In addition, these proceedings could also manifest themselves as the signing of bilateral agreements in the future, which would ultimately help create a deepened relationship in general, thus creating the basis for capitalizing on the many fields of untapped potentials of a V4-India cooperation.

CONCLUSION: THE PROSPECTS OF ENHANCING THE INDIA-VISEGRAD GROUP COOPERATION In conclusion, the high-level summit in Portugal carries serious significance regarding the envisioned closer cooperation between India and the EU. Consequentially, the India-V4 relations are starting to become more engaged as well, which can be seen as an entirely positive series of events. If the momentum is kept, and the aforementioned missing agreements will be realized, the unexplored potential of the India-V4 cooperation has the possibility to become a very important relationship in the future, which could create a profitable solution for the earlier lack of engagement. Still, a lot needs to be done first. For example, a high-level summit between the V4 nations and India based on the India-Nordic relationship could send a political signal of the recognized importance of the cooperation. That in turn could evolve the ties into a similar format such as the V4+India partnership, which would ultimately become an important strategic partnership for both sides, while also expanding their global posture further. Besides political consultations, a business consultation could also be helpful in deepening the ties on the foreign ministerial level. This could boost the cooperation in the private sector and on a practical level too. Creating certain initiatives to expand economic cooperation via collaborative engagements could help foster common development. One must also not forget the well-trained Indian workforce. The V4 countries could capitalize on this by giving them opportunities, scholarships, visas, that would in return help India utilize its massive labour force. Researchers and journalists are also very important. Certain kinds of journalist programs or researcher-exchanges should be considered, so that a deeper understanding of each other can be created, this could also be interpreted as investing in raising mutual awareness. Noting the favourable geopolitical context could also be a key for success. As India recognizes the political and economic possibilities in the V4 nations, and as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia also realize the unexplored potential in India, this would be the correct time to create a serious initiative. V4 countries must leverage their connectivity, and build upon these premises to promote people-to-people, digital, transportation, commercial etc. ties with India. At the same time, India must also start focusing more on the V4 countries, since the potential and capital that these nations bring to the table could help foster India’s further growth. Based on all this, if a solid foundation is created, a proper cooperation and partnership could be established in the coming years. If there is an existing partnership, the improvement will be much easier, which can lead to rapid resolutions and quicker results. The potential is there, the opportunity is present, and if engagement starts, many positive outcomes could be expected in the future.

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