How to go forward? French societal dilemmas for the 21st century by Antall József Tudásközpont

A J R C A N A LY S E S

ANTALL JÓZSEF RESEARCH CENTRE AJRC2021E19

Fanni Korpics

HOW TO GO FORWARD? FRENCH SOCIETAL DILEMMAS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

d i g i t a l i s t u d a s t a r. a j t k . h u

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HOW TO GO FORWARD? FRENCH SOCIETAL DILEMMAS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

French society has gone through significant changes during the last century, and the consequences of this relatively fast demographic transition have resulted in tensions within the society. Overall, when compared to other European countries, French society can be considered a model yet an atypical example as well. During the history of Europe France has always stood out; it used to be the most populous country, the country where Républicanisme was born, and the idea of a political nation was forged.1 On the other hand, today there are many aspects of the French society where France is reluctant to change, making it a very peculiar example within Europe. While in most European countries the population is decreasing due to extremely low fertility, the opposite is true in France. While in most nations urbanisation is still only in the process of acceleration, in France the population of many metropolitan areas have already started to shrink. While most of Western Europe turns towards a multicultural approach on immigration, France still sticks to its “assimilationist” agenda. While in other European countries minority rights are recognised and even supported, in France the concept of minority in not present in the law and it is merely considered as opposed to majority. The aim of the following paper is to try to describe the most important elements of the French society, reporting at the same time on the threads that make this country very particular in the European context. First, the most important demographic trends will be analysed, from the size of the population, through fertility, to life expectancy. Then, the paper discusses the most recent developments regarding urbanisation, by examining the changes in population density in connection to the fourth industrial revolution and the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, and their consequences on the urban structure of the country. Following that, this work will try to draw an inclusive picture of France as a country of immigration and to understand the reasons and consequences of state responses in this regard. In order to shed light on all elements characterising French demographics I will also describe the autochthonous communities living on French territories, giving a historical context to the emergence of assimilative measures, and the ethos of French Républicanisme.

POPULATION French statistics divide data of Metropolitan France—continental France and the island of Corsica—, and the overseas departments (DOMs) namely Guadeloupe, French Guyana, Martinique, Mayotte and La Réunion. The whole of France is made up of 101 départements2 , 96 of which are on the European continent including the island of Corsica, and 5 are overseas.

Samuel Hayat: Quand la République était révolutionnaire: Citoyenneté et représentation en 1848, Éditions du Seuil, Paris, 2014. 1

Administrative division of the territory of the French state, smaller than a region, but bigger than a municipality.

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Furthermore France possesses overseas territories as well, these are New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna, French Southern and Antarctic Lands and Scattered Islands, in addition to the overseas territorial collectivity of Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon.3 The estimated population of the French Republic as of 1 January 2021 was 67,422,000.4 Based on the data published by the World Bank, French population growth in 2019 reached +0.219%, following that, in 2020 this growth rate dropped to +0.212%.5 According to the data published in June on the official website of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), the population of the country, including Mayotte, as of June 2021 was 67,427,000, which proves that the population has indeed continued to grow.6 Currently, France is the second most populous country in the EU behind Germany, despite the recent decline in the number of births.7 The total number of live births in the country in 2020 was 740,000, which makes France one of the most fertile countries in the European Union (EU), while the total number of deaths in the same year was 658,000. Thanks to the high fertility rate—besides Ireland—France has one of the youngest population within the EU and 18% of French nationals are under the age of 15.8 French population change however shows an atypical trend when compared to other European countries, by the very fact that the population is continuously growing, but the pace of this growth is becoming slower every consequent year. This slowdown can primarily be explained by the decline in the number of births since 2011. As a consequence, the base of the so called age pyramid is narrowing due to the declining fertility, as a result of the narrowing age cohorts9 of women in childbearing age, not necessarily because of the drop in the number of how many children a woman bears. If we compare the population growth in France to those in Germany or in the United Kingdom—with similarly big populations—we can see that the French population is growing more slowly. Despite that, fertility in France is still a lot higher than in most European societies.10 In 2019 France was the most fertile nation in Europe. For example—alongside Ireland—, France is the only EU country where 1980 cohorts reach the replacement level of fertility, that is at

Marta Pachocka: Demographic situation in France in the late 20th and early 21st century. Analysis of selected phenomena. Public Policy Studies. 2014/2. 97-131. 3

Data from: Institut Nationale d’Études Démographic (INED) <https://www.ined.fr/fr/ > Accessed: 6 July 2021.

Data from : The World Bank <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2019&locations=FR&start=2019 > Accessed: 7 July 2021. 5

6 Data from: Institut National de la statistique et des études économique (INSEE) <https://www.insee.fr/en/ statistiques/serie/001641607 > Accessed: 6 July 2021.

Didier Breton – Magali Barbieri – Nicolas Belliot – Hippolyte d’Albis – Magali Mazuy: Recent demographic trends in France: A European outlier? translated by: Catriona Dutreuilh, Population, 2019/4.

Sylvain Papon – Catherine Beaumel: Bilan démographique 2020. INSEE Première. No 1834. 19 January 2021.

A group of people born around the same time period, that typically shares certain characteristics.

Didier Breton – Magali Barbieri – Hippolyte d’Albis – Magali Mazuy: L’évolution démographique récente de la France: de forts contrastes départementaux. Population. 2017/4. 583-651.

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least 2.1 children per woman.11 As a consequence of the relatively high fertility France is also the European country where the most abortions are executed.12 Marriages in France are not as frequent as in other European countries, moreover they usually occur at an older age, generally above 30. Many couples on the other hand choose to live in a civil union, instead of getting married. This form of union is considered to be a similar legal institution in France as marriage.13 Getting a divorce in France is also relatively easy, taking into consideration that since 1 January 2017 it is possible to separate based on mutual consent without having to go to court, only a notary’s presence is required. This phenomenon resulted in a sharp increase in the number of legal separations in France since 2017.14 The aging of the French population is already prominent, although not unique if we compare it with other developed nations and their aging population structures. In 2017, 12.6 million people in France were aged 60 or above.15 In addition to that, life expectancy at birth is one of the highest in Europe and also in the world.16 Life expectancy at birth in France as of 2020 was 85.3 for females and 79.2 for males.17 Nowadays there is an uptrend in the number of deaths, not only due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but also because age cohorts of the so called babyboom generation are reaching old age.18 As a result of the pandemic the excess of mortality was 7.3% higher in 2020 than in 2019. This had a slight negative effect on life expectancy at birth which stabilised last year around 85.2 years for women, and 79.2 years for men.19 Looking at French population changes from a historical perspective there has been a significant growth in the number of citizens, mostly due to the natural growth of the population, and less to the influx of immigrants experienced by the French Republic. Yet, the proportion of Frenchmen among Europeans shrank. For example, in the Middle Ages a quarter of the European population lived in the Kingdom of France, by the 18th century this proportion changed to 20%, finally France’s population became inferior to that of Germany or Russia by the 20th century.20 But, while in 1982 there were 55.27 million French nationals, by 2020 this number increased by almost 12 million people. Triggered by the increase in the population, average population density has also been growing from only

“Replacement level fertility” is the total fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. This rate is roughly 2.1 children per woman for most countries, although it may modestly vary with mortality rates.

Breton et al. (2019).

Breton et al. (2017).

Gérard-François Dumont: Vielleissement de la population de la France: Les trois cause de son accentuation. Population & Avenir. 2017/2. 17-19.

Breton et al. (2017).

Data from: INED

Breton et al. (2019).

Papon et al. (2021).

Data from: World Population Review <https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/france-population > Accessed: 4 August 2020. 20

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86.27 inhabitants per square kilometre in 1961, to 122.11 in 2017.21 In parallel with this one, another historical phenomenon is also visible, that is the continuously growing median age of the population, that has been increasing since the seventies, and it is projected to reach 45.9 years by 2050. This is shocking compared to 36.2 years measured as recently as 1995.22 Obviously it is hard to predict how demographic trends will go forward in the next decades, especially with sudden shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the environmental crisis. What we can say is mostly based on observing the previous couple of decades, that of course cannot serve as an absolute model for predictions. But, according to the central model, life expectancies will increase further to 88.3 years in the case of women and to 81 years in the case of men.23 According to projections, the number of France’s population is going to peak in 2045, when the population will have grown with another 9 million people.24 Consequently, we can expect drastic changes in the country’s population structure. However it will be interesting to observe how efficiently French governments will be able to react to these changes be it in regards to the labour market, decisions on the age of retirement, or family policies in general.

URBANISATION TRENDS The term urban population refers to the people living in urban areas, considered as such by the national statistical services.25 There are certainly huge differences in what nations consider to be urban and rural areas. In France municipalities with 2,000 inhabitants or more are considered towns, as a result, more than 90% of the population is considered as urban. This is mostly because commuting zones grow faster than cities themselves, and these are made up of small, yet urban communities.26 The French Republic was built around an extremely centralised structure, which resulted in the population also being concentrated around economic, political and cultural centres. The most prominent of these, of course, is the urban area of the capital city, Paris.27 The process of urbanisation usually happens in three steps. The first step is when population starts to concentrate around the centre of the urban unit. Then, this population de-concentrates around the centre by forming the urban area, and following that, in the third step there is a general decline in

21 Data from Statista < https://www.statista.com/statistics/270339/population-density-in-france/ > Accessed: 4 August 2021.

Data from: Statista < https://www.statista.com/statistics/459939/population-france/ > Accessed: 7 July 2021.

Chantal Brutel – Laure Omalek: Demographic projections for France and French regions / departments to 2030. INSEE Références. 1 November 2002. 23

Data from: World Population Review <https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/france-population > Accessed: 22 July 2021. 24

25 Data from: Macrotrends <https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/urban-population > Accessed: 9 July 2021.

Data from: Cities in the World, A New Perspective on Urbanisation. OECD Urban Studies. June 2020.

Datafrom: Statista

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the population of the urban area as a whole, which literature calls “disurbanisation.”28 Based on this logic French territory can be divided into urban units, that are the cities themselves, urban areas, that are the suburban areas built around the cities but usually they are under a separate municipality’s administration, and rural areas. Urban areas are also called commuting zones or employment areas as a huge percentage of their population commute daily to the urban units as they function as economic and financial centres, absorbing workforce from the surrounding communities. In France there is also the phenomenon of the so called “leap frog” urbanisation as from areas where it would be too complicated to commute to the major urban unit, employees move towards the secondary centres usually located on the edge of the commuting zones.29 The centralisation in terms of urbanisation is so prominent in France, that still 9 people out of 10 live in cities or in the connected urban areas. Disurbanisation according to this logic means that most people leave behind city centres in order to move to the suburban areas, as a consequence the population of these latter are growing extensively. These suburban areas are usually divided into municipalities that count around 2,000 residents, 52.9 million people all together combined.30 From a historical perspective the first step of urbanisation in the French Republic started with the first industrial revolution. It was a time when rural populations started to migrate towards urban areas, because industrial activity was more prominent there, absorbing a huge workforce. This trend was further strengthened with the emergence of post-industrial economies, as services are also concentrated in densely inhabited areas. But in the meantime transportation infrastructures have also been developed, hence the formulation of commuting zones around city centres. This model benefits big companies, as this way, their production and sales capacities are located close to consumers, who are also their workforce.31 These trends, however, seem to be changing as a result of the fourth industrial revolution, namely digitalisation. Furthermore, the change has been further accelerated by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the following lockdowns, that pushed people away from metropolitan areas and pulled them towards less densely populated municipalities. France‘s population is extraordinarily concentrated in certain départements, especially in those located in the central Île-de-France region. Population density is also historically high in huge metropolitan areas, surrounding the five major cities: Paris, Marseille, Lyon,

28 Sebastian Dembski – Olivier Sykes – Chris Couch – Xavier Desjardins: La réurbanisation et les grandes régions urbaines en Angleterre et en France: tendances et réflexions. La gouvernance des métropoles et des régions urbaines en Europe: Des réformes institutionnelles aux coopérations territoriales. Collection Recherche 240. PUCA, Paris, 2020. 23–48.

Marie-Pierre de Bellefon: A Scenario for the New Official French Urban Areas Zoning. Paper prepared for the 16th Conference of IAOS OECD Headquarters, Paris, France. 19-21 September 2018. 29

30 Emeline Cazi: Les Français vivent de plus en plus dans les zones urbaines ; les périphéries attirent davantage. LeMonde. 27 October 2020. <https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2020/10/27/la-france-estde-plus-en-plus-urbaine_6057523_3234.html > Accessed: 13 July 2021.

Gérard-François Dumont: France: la fin de l’urbanisation ? Population & Avenir. 2016/1. 3.

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Toulouse and Nice.32 Paris is by far the most populous city in France currently counting 2.24 million inhabitants within a territory of approximately 100 square kilometres.33 The French capital city can also be considered a megacity, according to the American model, as the Paris region, the city and connected agglomerations, counts more than 10 million residents. France in general fits into the European model of urbanisation as most cities count around 500,000 residents and there is a huge number of smaller towns, that are situated approximately 15 kilometres from each other. In this regard, France ranks in the middle of the European urban model, as average population density in municipalities is bigger that in North European countries but it is smaller than in South or East European ones.34 The decline of the number of Parisian residents, however, has started earlier than the population loss of capital cities in other Western European countries. The balance of migration of the French capital is negative, despite the fact that it is one of the main destinations for international immigration, yet the city loses 50,000 inhabitants on average every year.35 This trend became even more visible due to the several lock-downs French President Emmanuel Macron had to announce as a reaction to the coronavirus pandemic. Changes on the labour market have also contributed to the aforementioned trends, as distance working became recommended. As a consequence, housing prizes started to grow on the peripheries of metropoles, especially the Grande Couronne de Paris, increasing by around 10%, and in smaller towns, where the increase in prizes was approximately 15%. In the same period costs of buying a flat in the centre of Paris fell.36 Even with this rebalancing trend in the city-country relation, municipalities with high population density are continuing to grow, on the one hand thanks to the natural fertility traditionally high in France, and on the other hand because of the fact that immigration mostly affects bigger cities, where there is more cultural diversity than in smaller country communities. However, in municipalities with extremely low population density the number of inhabitants is starting to grow, indicating a positive correlation between the modernisation of transport infrastructure and willingness to move further from big economic centres.37 There are some main variables explaining intra-state migration. The principal cause is finding employment, but air pollution, good universities, or housing prizes also play important parts in choosing a destination. Looking at the internal migration in France from a historical point of view, in the 1980s the Mediterranean coastline had a major attractive power, while

32 Data from: Worldometer <https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/france-population/ > Accessed: 7 July 2021.

Data from: World Population Review.

Marianne Guerois – Denise Pumain: Des tendances de l’urbanisation en France et en Europe. HAL Archives Ouvertes. 2017. 34

Dumont (2016).

Isabelle Rey-Lefebvre: En 2020, l’immobilier amorce un lent rééquilibrage des grandes villes vers les périphéries et les villes moyennes. LeMonde. 4 January 2021. <https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/ article/2021/01/04/en-2020-l-immobilier-amorce-un-lent-reequilibrage-des-grandes-villes-vers-les-peripherieset-les-villes-moyennes_6065098_3234.html > Accessed: 8 July 2021. 36

Vincent Vallès: Une croissance démographique marquée dans les espaces peu denses. INSEE Focus. No. 177. 30 December 2019. 37

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in the 1990s Parisian populations started to migrate towards other, smaller metropolitan areas. Since the 2000s the Atlantic coastline attracts many people to settle down there, but the South West has also emerged as one of the most popular destinations. Before 1980 migration patterns normally followed employment opportunities, but today it seems that services and employment follow employees’ and consumers’ movements across the country. Today, the absolute balance of migration is positive in 49 départements out of the 96 situated in metropolitan France, and there are only 19 where the overall balance is negative. There are, on the other hand, 17 départements where the balance in terms of intrastate migration turns towards senior citizens and 11 where it favours active populations.38 It is very interesting to analyse how the younger generations can be positioned on the city-country axis. The new scenario in employment patterns after the fourth industrial revolution affects internal migration. In France connectivity in geographical terms is increasing all the time, with the development of the high-speed railway infrastructure, so even if businesses related to digitalisation are still located in the metropoles, employees have more leverage in choosing their place of residence taking into consideration the fast development of transportation infrastructures. This flexibility however, is less prominent among older generations that are used to the scenario where human capital, financial assets and production capacities are located relatively closely together. For younger generations the main motivation for migration is finding employment, but they do not refrain from commuting if the metropoles are easily available. 51.1% of all migration within France is related to people aged between 15 and 29. In this age group those possessing a university degree, or undergoing higher education are a lot more likely to migrate.39

IMMIGRATION (ASSIMILATION, INTEGRATION) France during most of its history has been a country of immigration, which resulted in a weighty proportion of foreigners in the French population, yet nowadays it has become a prominent issue in French domestic, foreign and security policy alike. French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a stance recently by a more liberal form of integration in an attempt to ease tensions accumulated in French society because of the rigid principle of general assimilation.40 As President Emmanuel Macron rightly claims Europe cannot lose sight of the fact, that France is indeed interconnected with the African continent, and that Europe cannot succeed on the long term if Africa does not succeed first.41 Macron also added that: Immigration is one of the biggest political challenges now and in the near future, because it will not stop. We must be clear: this challenge, which creates a moral

38 Pierre Grapin: Les migration internes en France : un marqueur essentiel de l’attractivité des territoires, Population & Avenir. 2017/4. 4-7. 39 Brice Barois: Le rôle attractif des industries créatives et culturelles dans la localisation des jeunes en France, Region et developpement. 2020/51. 45-64.

Raphaël Doan: Le Rêve de l'assimilation - De la Grèce antique à nos jours, Passés Composés, Paris, 2021.

France diplomacy, Ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires Étrangères <https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/ country-files/africa/migration/ > Accessed: 12 July 2021. 41

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and political crisis for Europe, is the result of an African crisis. And this crisis is first and foremost due to the inadequate security context. These migrants, these exiles, arrive through traffickers. The emotions they give rise to in Europe sometimes make us forget the terrible organised crime going on in the background.42 Describing immigration into France is particularly difficult as the law does not allow to distinguish ethnic, religious or linguistic group within the society. Equality is one of the core statements of French Republicanism. Other basic elements of the French republican identity besides absolute equality before the law, are individual emancipation, laïcité and cultural assimilation. It is easy to understand this is creating conflicts with the Islamic community residing in France which refuses the idea of the laïcité, that is the exclusion of religion from the spaces of social interaction. Interestingly, despite the ius soli principle43 adopted by France, children born to foreign nationals on French soil only receive virtual citizenship, and they become French citizens upon attaining majority, at the age of 18.44 The core idea behind French immigration policy is that every new generation of immigrant origin will be more and more integrated into French society, mainly through the power of education. Yet, on the contrary, segregation of second and third generation immigrants has become a serious issue, leading to growing criminality and radicalisation among the younger generations. This situation is hardly addressed by the state, as according to the republican values, in state administration there can be no reference on a citizen’s religion or ethnicity. Literature mentions two main types of factors influencing an immigrant’s successful integration, individual factors and contextual factors.45 Individual factors are for example education, personal aspirations, language skills, the age at arrival, length of stay in the host country, or place of birth. As contextual factors we should mention social and economic situation, residence, and the attitude towards the host society.46 Putting immigration into France in a historical context, after the Second World War Paris was amongst the founding members of the Intergovernmental Committee for European Migration in 1951. Later the country withdrew from it due to the fact that the committee lost its original purpose, which was to facilitate post-war population movements. In 1992 France re-joined the organisation engaging mostly in humanitarian operations of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). In the framework of family reunification programmes and refugee resettlements around 500 beneficiaries transit in France every month.47 In addition to accommodating refuges, a great number of economic migrants also entered France

Speech by President of the French republic Emmanuel Macron. 4 July 2018. Lagos, Nigeria.

The citizenship is granted automatically to every person born on the territory of the state.

Jean Beaman: North African Origins in and of the French Republic, Citizen Outsider, Children of North-African Immigrants in France, University of California Press, Berkeley, 2017. 1-28. 44

45 Alejandro Portes – Min Zhou: The New Second Generation: Segmented Assimilation and its Variants. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 1993/1. 74-96.

Mirna Safi: Le processus d'intégration des immigrés en France: inégalités et segmentation. Revue française de sociologie., 2006/1. 3-48. 46

International Organization for Migration: France <https://www.iom.int/countries/france > Accessed: 6 July 2021.

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during the reconstruction of the country after the war, especially from the North African countries. Afterwards in the 1960s and 1970s French immigration policy shifted excessively towards the idea of assimilation, as a result of the significant number of family reunification requests from relatives of the aforementioned construction workers. Within the framework of assimilation, newcomers are expected to adhere to French national values and cultural norms. Later on, since the mid-1980s, France softened its immigrant policy to an integrationist one, focussing mainly on encouraging immigrants to abide by the law, letting them retain their distinctive culture and practice their religion.48 The heavy immigration into France during the 20th century was the consequence of the fall of the French Colonial Empire. This influx of people from the former colonies, however affected French society in a very controversial way. On the one hand the French society has become extremely diverse, with segments leaning towards multiculturalism, while on the other hand, increasing diversity resulted in the surge of far-right parties, such as the National Front (FN, Front National)49, which tends to represent the views of those who are reluctant to accept multiculturalism.50 In French terminology today there is not such a prominent difference between the terms of assimilation and integration, while the institution of positive discrimination is practically unknown because of the republican value of equality. Assimilation however, is still an integral part of the French republican model and it is based on the idea that in a certain country there is a majoritarian culture and there are non-negotiable principles that everyone has to accept.51 France therefore, adopts a relatively strict integration policy, based on these principles. Regular immigrants arriving to France are required to sign an integration contract, by which they agree to take part in an intensive language training course and a course where they learn the basic values of the French society. As a reward they are entitled to apply for a ten-year residence permit.52 France has also taken steps towards facilitating the immigration of foreign talents, by issuing circulation visas for them, which can be obtained through a simplified and accelerated process compared to regular visas or residence permits.53 In France it is the Ministry of Interior that regulates migration and asylum policies with two other related entities: the French Office for Immigration and Integration and the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons. In addition to these institutions in 2017 an ambassador responsible for migration was also appointed in reaction to the intensifying influx of refugees and migrants after the disruptive consequences of the Arab Spring. Moreover, there are a

Sylvia Zappi: French Government Revives Assimilation Policy. Migration Information Source, Migration policy Institute, 1 October 2003. 48

Today: National Rally (RN, Rassemblement National)

Daniel Rubio Sánchez: How France’s Assimilation Model Failed to Integrate its Cultural Diversity. Medium. com. 5 April 2019. <https://medium.com/@danielrsanchez_/https-medium-com-danielrsanchez-francescultural-assimilation-model-food-for-thought-af6109f631f1 > Accessed: 12 July 2021. 50

Doan (2021)

Zappi (2003)

Gouvernement.fr <https://www.gouvernement.fr/en/coming-to-france > Accessed: 9 July 2021.

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number of civic associations and NGOs that work in partnership with the public authorities.54 In 2019 total immigration to France reached 385,600 units while total emigration was 299,100, resulting in a positive net migration. In the same year 5.1 million non-EU nationals were reported residing in France, while 109,800 people were granted French citizenship.55 Following the migration crisis, the year 2015 resulted in a record number of arrivals56, an estimated number of 252,643 by the OECD based on the data from the French Ministry of Interior. Arrivals are usually concentrated in the large urban areas, as well as in the Mediterranean coastal areas. Those individuals applying for a residence permit are generally young, more than a half of them are aged between 18 and 34 years. African nationals constitute the largest group holding a residence permit in France.57 The year 2017 has seen the second highest number of residence requests, 237,742 in total. Most residence permits were granted due to family reasons, but the share of permits granted upon humanitarian reasons hit a record that year. As a result, women no longer make up the majority of immigrants. On the European level (EU-28), Eurostat statistics show that in 2019 France ranked fifth in the total number of entries, while the immigration rate compared to the population remained one the lowest in the EU.58 In addition to this, according to estimates, there are at least 200,000 individuals residing irregularly in France, therefore they are invisible in national statistics. This situation adds to the securitisation of immigration by subsequent governments, as these undocumented people pose a risk to homeland security. Nevertheless, regularisation of undocumented immigrants is very difficult, as France’s asylum accommodation system is structurally undersized.59 Re-migration60 from France is also present, showing a negative correlation with the effectiveness of integrative measures. In OECD countries between 20% and 50% of immigrants re-migrate within 5 years from their first arrival. Those immigrants are more likely to stay on the long term, that are home owners and have strong social, family, or cultural ties in the host country. Consequently, the chance to a successful integration also depends on the presence of other immigrants from the same country of origin, besides the positive attitude of the host society. According to the neo-classical economic theory, those individuals that re-migrate are highly disadvantaged economically.61 Emigration is

Data from: European Commission: Organisation of Asylum and Migration System in France. European Commission. February 2019. 54

Data from : Eurostat: Migration and Migrant population Statistics. Eurostat. March 2021.

All people arriving to France through regular or irregular means.

Breton et al. (2017).

Breton et al. (2019).

Elias Steinhilper: Contentious Migration in Context Law, Discourse and Mobilization in Germany and France, Migrant Protest, Interactive Dynamics in Precarious Mobilizations, Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, 2021. 49-73. 59

60 Re-migration describes the situation when an individual returns to their country of origin, or migrates to a third country.

Louise Caron – Paul Reeve: Whose Integration Do We Measure? Immigrants’ Remigration and Labour Market Integration in France. Population. 2018/3. 481-518. 61

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also present in France, however only in a limited measure compared to other OECD countries. In 2018 for example, 109,000 French nationals left their home country to migrate towards mainly Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain and Belgium. Outside of Europe Canada and Japan are the most popular destinations. In 2019 1.8 million French citizens were registered by the consular services as nationals residing abroad.62 As France is an aging society it might need new sources of workforce arriving from outside of its borders. One of the most effective ways to integrate economic migrants into a nation’s labour market is by their naturalisation, in other words granting them French citizenship. Once an individual born a foreign national becomes French they can also expect an increase in their earnings. It is important to point out, however, that the process of naturalisation starts upon the request of the immigrant, it is not automatically granted after a certain period of time. The way to automatically acquire French citizenship is by marrying a French national. There are, of course, conditions to obtaining citizenship. The individual applying for French nationality must have lived continuously in the country for at least a period of five years, and must be free of criminal condemnations. Furthermore, the candidate must also undergo a test, where they prove their knowledge of the French language, history, culture and society, in addition to their knowledge of essential principles and values of the republic, and of the duties and the rights of citizens. Authorities also examine the eligibility of the applicant. Naturalisation is more often requested by non-EU nationals, as EU nationals can work in France without significant administrative burdens.63 It is true that labour market integration of immigrants was not an issue until recently, as labour migration used to be the most common motive for immigration to France. This favourable situation started to change when an increasing number of family reunifications were requested, during the 1960s. Today, the difficulty of inserting new entrants into the French labour market has become a systemic weakness of the country, in addition to the difficulty of integrating second or third generation immigrants despite that they received their education in France. Those arriving from the francophone world are, of course, at an advantage.64 Integrating refugees into French society is even more complicated as they, unlike migrants did not come to France with the purpose of entering the labour market, moreover, there can be no certainty regarding the length of their stay. Nevertheless, by obtaining international protection refugees can benefit of all forms of social protection. According to available data, in the past it was easier to integrate refugees into the French labour market, as they were either French-speaking people with low educational levels, or non-French speaking people with higher educational levels. Today, integration is challenged by the fact that there is a severe influx of non-French-speaking,

Note d’information sur les données migratoires. OECD. No. 6 January 2021.

Joachim Jarreau: Naturalization policy and the economic integration of immigrants: new evidence for France, Paris Dauphine University, Paris, 2020. 63

64 Data from: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Jobs for Immigrants (Vol. 2): Labour Market Integration in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Portugal, Summary and Recommendations, France. OECD. November 2008.

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poorly educated asylum seekers. The employment opportunities of refugees are also challenged by the fact that they can only apply for a work permit after 9 months from the start of the asylum procedure.65 Throughout history, the most numerous group arriving to France from abroad was coming from the countries of the Maghreb, and also from the former French colonies of the African continent and most of them were Muslim. The exact number of Muslims residing in France is unknown as in French census it is not allowed to make any kind of distinction based on one’s religion. Therefore, we can only estimate the real size of the Muslim population in the country, that is considered to be approximately 5 million people, around 7.5% of the total population. The proportion of Muslim populations is growing within the French Republic, as a result of the higher fertility of Muslim women already living in France and not only because of the acceleration of immigration from Muslim countries. This means, that by 2050 around 10% of the total French population will be Muslim. In addition to this, high fertility among immigrant Muslim women is also connected to their lower educational levels, that also prevents them from effective integration into the French labour market. Interestingly, fertility of second generation Muslim women usually decreases due to the influence of the host society and education, except for in cases when a woman feels little integrated into the mainstream French culture.66 The emergence of innate radicalisation on French territory shows that the socio-economic integration of Muslim immigrants has not been completely successful so far. As a matter of fact, radicalisation is mostly present among those young Muslims who during their studies were introduced to the French values, and benefit from the institutions of social welfare, yet they turn ever more frequently towards radical Islam. Manuel Valls, then prime minister, described the situation after the deadly terrorist attack against Charlie-Hebdo and the simultaneous attacks carried out in November 2015 by saying that France is “at war” within its borders.67 Since then, terrorism on French soil has gained in frequency but also changed significantly, as young adults today radicalise on their own, without joining any known jihadist network.68 When analysing the success of France’s integration policy, it is also interesting to examine how the French mainstream society sees the phenomenon of immigration. In general, French attitude towards immigration is becoming slightly favourable, yet it is more negative than in other Western European countries, with 60% of the population being against non-EU immigration. They also consider immigration to be one of the most severe issues affecting the country. Interestingly, most of the French population is favourable towards cultural assimilation as they see it as a facilitating factor for both immigrants and the host-society.

65 Shoshana Fine: The integration of refugees in France. In-Depth Analysis. Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies. Directorate-General for Internal Policies,.European Parliament. August 2019.

Julia A. Behrman – Jeylan Erman: An exploration of differences in ideal family size between Muslim and non-Muslim women in France. Demographic Research. 2019/41. 617-648. 66

67 Lilian Alemagna – Laure Bretton: Manuel Valls : «Nous sommes en guerre». Liberation.fr. 14 November 2015. <https:// www.liberation.fr/france/2015/11/14/manuel-valls-nous-sommes-en-guerre_1413503/ > Accessed: 16 July 2021.

Aïcha Bounaga – Hamza Esmili: War by Other Means: Fighting “Radicalization” in France (2014–2019). Islamophobia Studies Journal. 2020/2. 199-209. 68

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For instance, 74% of the population considers it essential that an immigrant learns to speak French. Political affiliations also influence French people’s attitudes towards immigration, as well as their place of residence, as those living in metropolitan areas are more open towards foreigners, while those living in the rural areas reject the phenomenon more. Refusal of immigration is more present in North East France that is often considered to be the country’s rust belt, but attitudes are only a bit better in South East France, while they are most favourable in the Paris region. In the 2017 presidential elections immigration was a central topic in the campaigns of both the current President, Emmanuel Macron and his main rival the right-wing Marine Le Pen. No doubt the issue of immigration will remain in the foreground of the upcoming campaign as well for the 2022 presidential elections.69 Even more so, as recent outcomes have shown that the republican model of integration has become partly ineffective. This is an integration model inspired by assimilation, in need of modernisation. It is questionable if there is room for adaptation, considering that Article I of the constitution proclaims that the French nation-state is one and indivisible. French identity derives from the necessity of sharing the same values and having the same culture, the adoption of which they expect of every newcomer. In the formation of this republican myth the use of the same language also occupies a central role.70

LINGUISTIC DIVERSITY Assimilation is not a new idea in French political culture and assimilation policy did not only start as a response to immigration. In the process of creating the French state itself, the Ancien Régime71 already used assimilative measures in order to conquer new territories and effectively integrate them into the central state ruled from Paris. This early homogenisation before the French revolution reached its peak during the reign of King Louis XIV, especially in the provinces freshly annexed to the kingdom. The most effective way to integrate this foreign population was by forcing them to use the French language. After the revolution, according to the new ideas born from the Enlightenment, the general idea in France was that the nation is the community of citizens living on a given territory ruled by the state having the same rights and obligations. In order to be considered as a member of the nation speaking French became an absolute requirement.72 In spite of the fact that France is considered a primary example of the modern nationstate it is far from being homogenous, especially if languages and identities are concerned. France has always been characterised by a huge linguistic diversity, that due to centuries of heavy assimilation policy has been reduced. The French language itself developed from the francien, the language variety spoken in the Île-de-France region, which later on emerged to be the centre of the Kingdom of France after its prince was crowned king. At

69 James Dennison – Teresa Talò: Explaining attitudes to immigration in France. European University Institute. Working Papers, RSCAS. 2017/25.

Jacques Barou: Integration of immigrants in France: a historical perspective. Identities. 2014/6. 642-657.

The French state before the Revolution of 1789.

Doan (2021).

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the beginning of the creation of the French state two major language groups could be identified. In the north, there were the oïl languages, and in the south the oc languages. By the means of linguistic colonisation Paris managed to expand its administrative power, by propagating the language variety it used.73 The first legal step towards homogenisation in French history was taken by Francis I who in his order issued in 1539 obliged all his subjects to use the French mother tongue in their interactions with the state, namely in courts and other administrative institutions. It is questionable however, if his objective was assimilation within the kingdom, or rather he aimed to raise the status of the French language against Latin, and also, the status of the King of France against that of the Pope.74 Afterwards, the next important milestone towards linguistic unification of the country was triggered by the French Revolution in 1789, when the Jacobins decided that in a free nation all nationals must speak the same language.75 The last strike on linguistic diversity in France was made by Minister for Public Instruction during the Third French Republic, Jules Ferry, who institutionalised obligatory primary education, that was freely available for every child. As a result, in these public schools French was the language of education, what is more, children not speaking French were often punished and publicly shamed. This resulted in the society abandoning their identities and become French—in the idealistic meaning of the term.76 Since the aftermath of the Revolution, and the heavy assimilation policy of the Third Republic a new phenomenon emerged, that today still characterises French population. The glory attributed to the achievements of the revolution also meant the mystification of the French language as well, that became the ultimate bond amongst citizens. On the other hand, rural populations did not automatically start speaking French in their everyday interactions, which led to the emergence of diglossy, a linguistic attitude that is present even today, also amongst immigrants. Diglossy means that an individual has dual identities, one of them however, they value more than the other. In practice, that results in a general belief in a given group within society, that in their formal, official communication they have to use the language of the state, while in informal situations they are allowed to use their regional or immigrant language. This belief has serious consequences when, rather than facilitating integration, it results in segregation. Also, in the lack of positive discriminative measures implemented by the state, an individual feels excluded from mainstream society by the very language variety they speak. Diglossy also means that individuals not belonging to the mainstream society develop a language of their own, often mixing elements of standard French and their regional or immigrants languages.77 Despite the efforts of preserving a standard French and due to the heavy immigration, especially from the countries of the Maghreb during most of the 20th century, Arabic started to have Anne Judge: French as a Tool for Colonialism: Aims and Consequences. UC Berkeley: Institute of European Studies. 2005.

Nagy Noémi: A hatalom nyelve – a nyelv hatalma, Nyelvi jog és nyelvpolitika Európa történetében, Dialóg Campus Kiadó, Budapest, 2019.

Ortutay Katalin: A franciaországi kisebbségi nyelvek a hatalom árnyékában, Gondolat Kiadó, Budapest, 2011.

Nagy (2019).

Philippe Gardy – Rober Lafont: La diglossie comme conflit: L’example occitane. Languages. 1981/61. 75-91.

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an influence on the French language, mostly among those young second or third generation immigrants who learnt French at school, although using only Arabic at home. This language variety is named verlan, and today it is deeply integrated into the norms of language use in France. This kind of change was triggered by the exclusion of immigrant populations from the mainstream society following the economic crises of the 1970s and it emerged as a counter pole to the strengthening French universalism. This was the period when segregation in the metropoles has become increasingly apparent and in these suburbs new cultural and linguistic models have started to formulate. Verlan, is a language variety where the order of syllables is changed within one word. Following this logic children of immigrant origin have started to call themselves beurs, which is the verlan version of the word Arab. The use of this word allows them to formulate an identity distinct from the standard French national identity, but also from the immigrant identity of their parents and grandparents.78 Besides the linguistic differences between the language use of the mainstream French society and the immigrant population, there are also regional languages that are spoken by indigenous groups on French metropolitan and overseas territories. These groups have regional identities and usually live on the geographic periphery of the state. Just to mention some of the best examples I am going to describe the characteristics of the Basque, Catalan, Breton, Corsican and Occitan language groups, all of them are autochthonous in Metropolitan France. The Basque language group lives on the French-Spanish border mainly in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques region, where 55% of the 237,000 inhabitants consider Euskara79 to be their mother tongue. Since 1951 thanks to the Deixonne Bill they are allowed to locally teach their language in their private school association called Ikastola. Brittany is the home of the Breton language group, where only 200,000 out of the almost 5 million population speak this ancient Celtic language. They are also allowed however, to teach the Brezonheg80 in their private schools maintained by a civic association named Diwan. These schools are nationally accredited, which means that students who graduate from there can proceed to any university of their choice.81 Catalans mostly live in the Rousillon region, that borders the Catalan Autonomous Region situated in Spain. French Catalans are a lot less active politically, however they do have some additional language rights when compared to other groups.82 The widest circle of linguistic rights however, are granted to the Corsicans, who achieved a status of Collectivité Territorial, that has the same rights as any other overseas territory of the French Republic. There are approximately 250,000

Annelise Goldman: L'argot et l'assimilation des maghrébins en France. L’Indécis au Précis. 2019/1. 13-25.

Basque

Breton

Korpics Fanni: Regionális nyelvek és nyelvhasználat Franciaországban, BA/BSc szakdolgozat, BCE Társadalomtudományi és Nemzetközi Kapcsolatok Kar, Nemzetközi Tanulmányok Intézet, 2018. 81

82 Korpics Fanni: A nyelvi diverzitás politikai szerepe Spanyolországban és Franciaországban A katalán és okszitán közösségek helyzetének összehasonlítása. AJRC Analyses. Antall József Knowledge Centre. October 2020. <https://digitalistudastar.ajtk.hu/hu/ajrc-elemzesek/a-nyelvi-diverzitas-politikai-szerepespanyolorszagban-es-franciaorszagban > Accessed: 15 July 2021.

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residents living on the island, yet only half of them speak the Corsu83, as a result of prominent intra-state immigration to Corsica during the last 100 years.84 The Occitan speakers are a little different from all other language communities, as there is not one unified variety, but several ones. The south of France is a very densely populated area, however, Occitan is not widely spoken in the main metropolitan areas and it is only present in the rural areas, as the former is one of the main destinations for international immigrants and internal migrants from the so called “empty diagonal” area.85 Occitans also have their own civic association that helps them maintain their distinctive culture, rooted deeply into Medieval troubadour culture. The reason why these communities actively maintain civic associations and foundations running schools and other institutions with a cultural profile, is that the French Republic does not provide any financial aid for maintaining the cultural heritage or language of these communities, as the presence of linguistic or ethnic minorities is not acknowledged by the state. In conclusion, based on the data and analysis provided in this paper, France has an extremely complex demographic situation partly because of its historical heritage, but also because of the most recent changes that influenced its society. With the upcoming elections in spring 2022 we can be certain that the aspects described in this work will have a central role in presidential debates between candidates. Even more so, as increasing tensions within France will need to be dealt with, however the state might have to develop new approaches in order to effectively address issues related to aging populations, changes on the labour market and of the urban structure of the country, not to mention challenges related to immigration and the integration of second or third generation migrants. It is questionable though if assimilation policy will ever by revised in France, simply because of the fact that it is deeply imbedded in the political culture and it is a basic principle of French Republicanism as well.

The Corsican language.

Korpics (2018).

The central regions of France where population density has been continusously decreasing for decades.

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