Whanganui OneRoof Property Report - 5th December 2022

Welcometo ourtimelycelebrationof aNew Zealandrealestateicon:the summerbach. It’ssafetosaythatmostKiwis dreamof owning aholidayhomebythebeach.Andour research intothe stateofthebachmarketpost-Covidshowsjust howmanyKiwis realisedthatdream.Therewas asurge insecond-homepurchasesin coastallocationsaround NewZealandin2020and2021, as buyers respondedto borderclosuresand record-lowinterestrates.

It’sclear fromtheprices beingpaidthatsomelocations aremorepopularthanothersandthattheluxuryendof thebachmarkethasdoneextremelywell.Forthose in the market, we’vealsoproduced ahelpfulguidetobuyinga holiday home.

Our finalPropertyReportof2022also contains ourendof-year reviewofthehousingmarket. We’veidentifiedthe winnersandlosersinwhathasbeen aturbulent12 months in realestate andgiven ourpredictionsfor2023.

AlsoinsidearethelatestsuburbvaluesforallofNew Zealand,providedbyourdatapartner,Valocity,and insightsandcommentaryfromindependenteconomist TonyAlexander,propertycommentatorAshleyChurch and mortgagebrokerRupertGough.

Keepintheknow!

Whenitcomestowritingarticlesaboutthe housingmarketanditsvarioussubcomponentsthereisatypeofsongbook fromwhichweeconomistssing.Whenan economyisjustcomingoutofadownturnwetalkabout theadvantagesforabuyerofcompliantvendors,low fixedinterestrates,bankswantingtogrowtheirbooks afteraweakperiod,probablysomeeasinginReserveBank mortgagerestrictions,andextrademandfromotherslikely tosooncomealong.

Whentheeconomyis chuggingalongstronglywe notethat demandishighandcapitalgains seemtobe easily occurring,plentyofpeoplehavejobs,butclouds aregathering.We’ll warnabouteventuallyrising inflation,risinginterestrates,thecheappriceshaving beenandgone,andtheneedforgreaterthoughttobe giventopotentialincomelossifandwhentheeconomy turns down.

risetooffsetthe higher costoflivingmeansinterest inpurchasing aholiday homeis likelyto stay strong throughtheperiodofeconomicchallengein2023.

Butthereisasecondnon-traditionalfactortotakeinto account.Thepandemichas made people reassesstheir lifestyles,theirlifegoals. Manyofusseetheopportunity tospend alotmoretimein aholidayhomethan previouslyenvisionedbecauseofthegreaterscopefor workingfromhome.

Infact,theoldequations of length of timetodrivetoa weekendhomeona Fridaynightthenbackon aSunday nightgetradically alteredwhenyoucan makethetrip atyourleisure on aWednesdayor Thursday andcome back maybeon aMonday –thoughstillwiththeusual limitationsforhouseholdswithchildrenatschool.

Therehasbeen astructural shiftupwardinthe feasibilityof owningandgettinggooduseoutofa holiday homefortensofthousandsofpeople.

We canaddina thirdfactor.Thepopulationis aging, andthepandemichas seenmanyolderpeoplesellup outofthe maincitiestoshifttothe regions. Thishas already producedunusualupwardpressureonnotjust regionalhousepricesingeneralbutprices forholiday homes. Becausesomeofthisbuyingwas ashifting forwardin timeofpurchasesthiscouldmean abit less thanexpectedBabyBoomer demandforholidayhomes inthenext coupleof years.

Thenwhentheeconomyisturningdown(now)wetalk abouttheuncertaintiesastowheninterestratestopout andatwhatlevels,howfarhousepricesmightfall(pure guessworkexperiencetellsus),whenlendingcontrols mightease,andtryourbesttogiveananswerwhen peopleaskwhenthemarketwillstartrisingagain.

Thetrouble withsuchanapproachthistimearoundis that oureconomy is experiencingsomeuniqueaspects neverseenbeforeduring adownturn andthatmakes forecastingextremelyfraught.Thebigdifferenceisthe labourmarket.The unemploymentratehas satat3.3% all year,businessesarehighlypessimisticyetplan hiring many more people,andthefeelingofjobsecuritywhich peoplehaveisunusuallystrong.

Thisisimportantintermsofsupportingthehousing market overalleven aspricespullbackfromtheabsurd levelsof2022.Itis alsoimportantin termsofsupporting the holiday homesmarket. Were theunemployment raterising firmlyas we haveseeninthepastwhen interestratesjumpupand sentimentis verynegative thentherewouldbefalling demandforholiday homes.

Manypeople wouldbelookingto sellin factto freeup cashforeithertheir businessesortosupporttheirhome mortgageincase of redundancy.

Thistimearound thestrongexpectationpeople haveofkeepingtheirjob andsecuring adecentwage

Butoffsettingthisfactoristheextentofthewealthgain onassetsexperiencedbymanypeopleoverthepastfew years.Theunexpectedhikeinwealthfromhigherpricesfor sharesandpropertyisencouragingmanypeopletomake purchasestheymightotherwisenothaveconsideredwise.

Formanythishasmeantpurchasingaspaorengaging inhomerenovations.Butforothersithasmeantpaying alotlessattentiontothecostsofowningaholiday homethanwouldnormallybethecase.Peoplemaystill runthespreadsheetofmaintenancecosts,travelcosts, bankinterestsacrificedetc.Butwhensetagainstthe unexpectedwealthsurgeofrecentyears,especiallyfor peopleinthetraditionalholidayhomebuyingagegroup, thecostsgetdiscountedfairlyquickly.

Orinsimplerterms,insteadofcomparingholiday home running costswithexpectedincomepeople comparethemwith accrued wealthandthecoststhan paleintoinsignificance.

Thereare otherfactorstoconsidersuchas rising interestrates, recentlyslowpopulationgrowth,getting insuranceon properties near waterinfutureyears,and aprofitabilitycrunch formany smalltomedium-sized business ownersdue torisingcosts.Butallup,themild natureofthe slowing inNZgrowthexpected next year, thefirmlabour market, thewealthgains,working from home,andanagingpopulation, allsuggestacontinuing stronglevelofunderlyingsupportfortheholidayhomes marketin thecoming fewyears. •TonyAlexanderisanindependenteconomics

GenuinehandmadeKilim Rugs, RunnersandCushions.Large,mediumandsmall.Instorenow.

HOMEFORTHE

COASTALCOMMUNITIES upanddownthe countryarechangingshapewithCovid speeding uppeople’sdecisionstoeithermovetothebeachor buyaholidayhometoescapeto.

Thevirushasledtoshiftingpatternsof residency withagents reportinginsteadofthetraditionalheading offtothebachfromtownonaFridaynightthere’sagrowing trendofpeopleoptingtoliveatthebachandcommutetotheoffice.

AnalysisofNewZealand’sbachmarketbyOneRoofanditsdatapartner Valocityfoundanexplosioninsecondhomepurchasesincoastallocations inthemonthsafterthefirstCovidlockdown,withmorethan6000snapped upbyKiwiseagertobeclosetothebeachandthewater.

Theboominsales camehandinhandwith aboominbeachtown propertyvalues,withhouseprices in someofthemorepopularlocations risingbymorethan$500,000post-Covid.

James Wilson,headofvaluationsat Valocity,saysthedataandanalysis showsjusthowhotmanyofNZ’scoastalmarketswereaftertheinitial Covidlockdown.

“Manyhomeownerswereabletoutiliseequityfromtheirmainhometo leveragethepurchaseofasecondhome/holidayhome.Alowinterestrate environmentalsohelpedfueldemand,”hesays.

Wilsonadds:“The‘seachange’wasnotjust aKiwithing;this phenomenonwasalsoobservedinternationallyasthedesireto liveand

workfromcoastallocationsgrew,supportedbyincreasingworkfrom homeflexibilityofferedbymanyemployers.

“Interestingly,whilstsalesactivityhasslowedsignificantlyinmany coastallocations,wearenotseeingsignsofsignificantdownward pressureon valuelevels,headwindsare notyetstrongenoughtopush themdown.

“Anecdotally,weare hearingofincreasedinterestlevelsduringearly spring,andwewillbewatchingcloselytoseewhetherthisinterest correlatestostrongervaluelevelsaswemovetowardssummermonths.”

LOCKDOWN EFFECT

Aconsequencehasbeenstandardsliftedinwhatwereoncepurely

Otherbigbuyersofholidayhomeshavebeenolderpeoplewho hatedbeinglockeddownawayfromtheirfamiliessomuchtheysold upandbought aplaceatthebeachwithineasy reachofchildrenand grandchildren.

Even grandparentslivinginidyllicholidayspotsliketheBayof

HOLIDAYS

Islandshavemovedtocoastallocationsfurthersouthtobenearfamily, determinednotto repeattheisolationtheyfeltduringlockdowns.

Agentsalso reportthebigdemandtheyhaveseenoverthelast fewyearsatsomeholidayspotshasmeantbuyingatthebeachisnot necessarily acheaper optionanymore.

Justtobuy abasictwoorthree-bedroomholidayhomebackfrom thebeachhashitthe$1m-plusmarkinplaceslikeCooksBeachonthe CoromandelPeninsulaandthatwon’thaveseaviews.Beachfrontthere, asinmanycoastallocations,isnowinstantlyinthemillions.

Formostpeople,beingabletodrivetotheirholidayhomewithina coupleofhoursisstillabigmust.ForCantabriansthatmightbeAkaroa; forAucklandersit’straditionallybeentheCoromandelPeninsulaor northofthecitytoplaceslikeOmahaand Mangawhai.

WithOmahabecomingthedomainoftheuber-wealthy(beachfront therecancost$7m-plus),Aucklandershavepushedfurthernorthto Mangawhaiwhichinturnhasmorphedfrompurely aholidayspottoa bustlingtownwithsubdivisionsandemployment.

Aresulthasbeenpeoplesearchingfurtherupthecoastinlocations like WaipuandRuakakainBreamBay –andRuakakaisbooming,says JoanneDews,ofBreamBayRealty.

ShethinkstheoncesleepybeachcommunityisprobablythefastestgrowingcoastallocationnorthofAuckland.“Peoplehavebeenbuying upbachesleft,rightandcentre. We havewaitinglistsforpeoplethatare

POPULAR WITHHOLIDAY HOMEBUYERS: PAUANUI,INTHE COROMANDEL.

PHOTO /GETTY IMAGES

Dewson has also seen an increase in older people who weren’t able to go on cruises or travel overseas putting their money into beach properties so the whole family can come together.“They arethinking about not much point in having the money in the bank because it’s not earning any interest.”

She thinks Ruakaka has overtaken the Coromandel in popularity for Aucklanders, saying traffic-wise it’s easier to get to, and she says people who can no longer affordtobuy in Mangawhai can probably affordRuakaka.

Mangawhai is an example of aholiday destination which has turned into alifestyle destination, says Stephen Owles, from Bayleys Mangawhai. “We’ve learned alot over the last two years of how to work remotely so our influx of population and the way the region is developing is going to continuefor the next two to fiveyears at least.”

Mangawhaihasbecomepricey,though.A400-500sqmsectionwithout views is around half amillion dollars. The price doubles for aview and to buy right on the water,orone back from the beach, now costs $2m to $3.5m, alot of money for aholiday home.

OverthehillfromMangawhaiiscovetedLangsBeach,whichhasfew facilities but big, quality multi-million dollar homes. Owles says there’s along waiting list to get into Langs Beach so while few properties come to market when they do they sell quickly

Aucklanders after aholiday home also headed to the Coromandel in droves after Covid arrived. Chris Speedy,ofWhangamata Real Estate, says the market in the surf town was hectic after Covid arrived.

“Wefound alot of people, Aucklanders especially,weresick of the lockdown and wanted to get outofthere.”

The general consensus was if people had to be locked up they would ratherbelockedupattheseaside:“Thatwasamotivatorforsometoget aholiday home.”

LOCKDOWN EFFECT

Speedy has noticed new trends, saying people arestill transitioning out of thecities. Some arebuyingholiday homesaspermanenthomes by perhapsdownsizing or sellinguptheir Auckland property.“They got a practicestart at working remotelyoverCovid,” he says.

“There’s quite alot of people that will shoot up (toAuckland) for two days aweek or just shoot up for ameeting and if you time your run you’reonly acouple of hours away.”

Other people have aplan, Speedy says: “They arestarting the move now and buying something they can go ‘right, we can either do this up or they’ve got a2,3,4,5-year plan to transition here permanently.”

PeoplewhohavesoldupinAucklandarenotregrettingtheirdecision, either,Speedy says. “It’s moreonce they get herethey go ‘why didn’t I do it sooner?’.”

People from the Waikato and Bay of Plenty,including farmers, also like to buy in Whangamata.

FurtheruptheCoromandelPeninsula,CooksBeachhasalsoseen an increase in permanent residents who work remotely.“There’s definitely been amindshift Ithink, or areset,” says Merv Gardiner, branch manager of Richardsons Cooks Beach.

“We’ve definitely got morepeople wanting to buy abeach house especially at entry level, which now in Cooks is above $1m, which used to be probably half that three years ago.

“It’snotacheaperoptionnowthanAuckland,assuch,butitseemsto be amindset option Ithink.”

Cooks Beach has limited stock, however,soagain thereis awaiting list to get in and Gardiner says that’s especially at the entry level. “Just recently we sold aplace, two-bedroom older bach. It was tidy,good sectionbutnowaterviewsoranything,sleepoutdowntheback,andthat soldfor$1.2m–youwouldn’thavedreamtofthatpriceafewyearsago.”

Alot of the holiday homes in Cooks Beach arestill empty half the year but those who do live therepermanently often rent them out in peak times wherethey might fetch $400 anight. “Friends of mine built themselves alittle sleepout down the back. Thereare only two of them and so they go downthere and rent their house out for six weeks.

“You usually have alockable cupboardintherethat you put all your personal stuff in and just lock it which tenants can’t access,” Gardiner says.

Hesayspropertytypeshavechangedovertheyearswithdemandfor rough, old Kiwi baches petering out as people these days want modern, liveable holiday homes.

“I can remember going back 30 years we’d be renting out some pretty rough looking beach houses …nobody will rent that sort of property anymoresopeople have tidied their baches up and when they rent it’s maybe not five-star but it’s alot better than it used to be.”

While most buyers arefromAuckland or Hamilton and the Waikato, somecomefrommuchfurtherafield,suchasSouthlanderswhorecently bought there: “They wanted to get away from their cold winters.”

Butmostpeoplewanttobeabletodrivetothebachcomfortably,hesays.

PERMANENT SHIFT

Furthersouth,theKapitiCoastonthe westcoastingreaterWellington is another example of aholiday spot which has become amore

LEFT,OTAKI BEACH,ONTHE KAPITI COAST; RIGHT, BAYOF ISLANDS, IN NORTHLAND PHOTOS / GETTY IMAGES

“WE FOUND ALOT OF PEOPLE,AUCKLANDERS ESPECIALLY,WERE SICK OF THE LOCKDOWN AND WANTED TO GET OUT OF THERE.”

CHRIS SPEEDY, WHANGAMATA REAL ESTATE

permanentsuburb.

ThatwashappeninglongbeforeCovidbutCovidledtoevenmore interestinthecommunitiesscatteredupthecoast,saysCeinwenHoward, directorofHoward&Co.

GrandparentsfromNewPlymouthorPalmerstonNorthhavebeen buyingtobenearerfamilieswholivein Wellington,andheragencyhas hadbuyersfromHavelockNorthinHawke’sBayandtheBayofIslands aswell.

“Iaskedthem,‘whyonearthareyoucomingdown?’andthesame answerfromeverysingleoneofthemwas‘ouradultkidslivein Wellingtonandwedon’teverwanttobesofarawayinlockdownagain’. It reallyaffected retiredpeople,theyfelt reallyisolated.”

Retiredpeopleonelectricbikeshavebecome acommonsightatthe beach,shesays.

Again,holidayhomesatplaceslike WaikanaeBeach,RaumatiBeach andParaparaumuBeachareboughttobelivedinpermanentlythese dayswitholderstylebachesmostlybeendemolishedtomakewayfor $2mor$3mhomes.“Orwe’vegotpeoplethathaveboughtthatwill retireorlivetherepermanentlybutnotatthemoment.”

LiketheeastcoastnorthofAuckland,buyersarespillingfurther northwithallthebeachcommunitiesgrowingaseachbecomesmore expensivetobuyin.

“Ourpricesarenottoodissimilarto WellingtonCity.You’dnormally cashupin Wellingtonandputmoneyinthebankandchangeyourcarthat’snot reallythecaseanymore.”

SOUTHISLANDBACHES

WellingtoniansoftenheadtoMarlboroughSoundstobuyholidayhomes, makingupabout20%ofthemarket,butthemainbuyersareCantabrians andotherSouthIslanders,saysGlennDickofMarlboroughBayleys.

Dicknoticed abiguptickininterestwhenCovid restrictionsstopped peopletravellingabroad,withhideawaysinplaceslikeQueenCharlotte Sound,KenepuruSoundandPelorusSoundallpopular.

He’snoticedfewerimpactsfromtheworkfromhometrendsaying bachesintheSoundsare stillpredominantlyholidayhomes,although thereare somepermanent residents,too.

Mostly,peoplearebuyingpropertiesastheyalwayshave,as aboltholetogotoatweekends,hesays.

Whilethereare stillsomeolder-styleKiwibachestobefoundthey arelessdesirable,withmosthomesnowfeaturingmono-pitched roofs, boardandbattencladdinganddouble-glazing.

Dicksaysthere’snotmucharoundforunder$500,000withthestarting pointaround$800,000or$900,000throughtothemillions –Bayleys agentssold ahomeonKenepuruRoadinBroughtonBayfor$2.255min January,andanotheratQueenCharlotteDriveinNgakutaBaysoldfor $2.295minApril.

WhilesomeCantabriansdodrivefivehourstogettoMarlborough Sounds,mostliketoonlyspendanhourorsogettingtotheirholiday home,saysJulieGraham,ofBayleysRangiora.

PlaceslikeMotunauBeach,ontheeastcoastjustoveranhourfrom Christchurch,areareaswhereboatiesgo:“Thetraveldistancefrom

Christchurchis reallyattractiveifyou’retowing aboat.”

BuyersforMotunauareusuallyfromChristchurchorthewider Hurunuidistrict,she says.

“They’llcomefromoverthehillfrommaybeCulverdenwayor somewherelikethat.Iftheyarerurally-based people butstillwanttobe bythecoastit’snotfartoputyourboatin –that’swhatitboilsdownto alotofthetime.”

AlsonearChristchurchisFrench-influencedAkaroa, atownonthe BanksPeninsulaknownforitsheritagebuildings.

Akaroaislargely aholidaydestination,saysChrisMangels,ofBayleys, butherethebachesareabitmorewell-heeledwithalotofheritagecottages andalsomodernbuildsalongstreetswithFrenchnames.

MostareownedbypeoplefromChristchurchorfrommid-Canterbury butMangelshasnoticed amarkedincreaseinAucklanderslookingto buy,somewith aviewto relocatingtherepermanently.

CovidputAkaroabackonthemap,Mangelsthinks:“Peoplewere stuckinNewZealand,weren’tthey,andtheytravelled regionallyand they realisedeverythingtheyneedisonthedoorstepanyway.”

CHANGE OF LIFESTYLE

Buyersarelookingatpermanentsolutionsforthefuture,hesays.“They maybe aholidayhomeintheshorttermbutdefinitelysomethingto spendmoretimeat,potentially retireat.Ifyoumoveto atownlike

Grab abach: SALESINNZ’SCOASTAL TOWNSAND SUBURBS

OneRoofandValocityexaminedsalesactivityandvalue movementin251beachandcostallocationsaroundNew Zealand.Theanalysiscoveredthefiveyearstotheendof June2022,andincludednonurbancentreswithmorethan 100residentialpropertieswithin800metresofthecoastline. Thetotalnumberofsettledsaleswas35,356.Ofthose,45% (15,997)were“secondhome”purchases-iepurchasesthat tooktheownerintothemulti-homeownercategory.

OverallsalesplungedatthestartoftheCovidcrisisto76but thenexplodedfollowingtheliftingofthelockdownrestrictions, withthemonthlyaverageforthesecondhalfof2020risingto justover760andtheshareofsecondhomepurchasesrising above50%.Salesdeclinedinthefirsthalfof2021astighter lendinglawsmadesecondpurchasesharderbutthetherewas abriefresurgenceinthemarkettowardstheendoftheyear. Salesvolumesnowarebelow20172019levelswithrisinginterestrates likelyakeyfactorintheoverall marketslump.

Bach hot spots

SALESIN NZ’S COASTAL

TOWNSANDSUBURBS

TheOneRoof-Valocityanalysislookedatthepercentageof dwellingsownedbymulti-homeownersandsinglepropertyowners in251beachandcostallocationsaroundNewZealand.Themultihomeownerfigureisanindicationofhowmanypropertiesineach locationareusedasholidayhomes.Themapshowsthe90locations wheretheshareofdwellingsownedbymulti-homeownerswasmore than50%.Thedarkertheshadingonthemaphigherthepercentage ofmulti-homeowners.

Thelocationswiththehighestshareofdwellingsownedbymultihomeownersare:TeAraroa,Gisborne(83%);Taharoa,inWaikato (82%);TokomaruBay,Gisborne(78%);OkuraBush,Auckland(74%); andTeKaha,BayofPlenty(73%).

TwelvelocationsscatteredaroundthefringesofAuckland’s urbancentreshavemorethan50%ofdwellingsownedbymultihomeowners,whichsuggestsAucklandersstillliketobewithin drivingdistanceoftheirbaches.

Theanalysisalsofound: ThemedianpurchasepriceofasecondhomeinQ1ofthisyear was$1mormorein79locations,and$2mormoreinnine.The locationswiththehighestmedianpurchasepriceinQ1were: Okura,Auckland($5,300,000);Omaha,Auckland ($4,395,000);TataBeach,Tasman($3,450,000); Sandspit,Auckland($3,388,000);andOneroa, WaihekeIsland($2,460,000).

Twentylocationshadamedianpurchase priceoflessthan$500,000forasecond homeinQ12022,withtheWestCoast accountingforthelion’sshare.The cheapest“second”purchaseswerein: Waipapakauri,Northland($130,000); Cobden,WestCoast($191,000); Patea,Taranaki($260,000); Blaketown,WestCoast ($275,000);andGladstone, WestCoast($295,000).

Theanalysisalsolooked athowmuchproperty valueshadchanged,

%OFTOTAL DWELLINGSOWNED BY MULTI HOMEOWNERS

Suburb %oftotal dwellings owned by multi-homeowners

Te Araroa Taharoa TokomaruBay OkuraBush Te Kaha WaihauBay Charleston LangsBeach Omaha OnahauBay Whangaruru Takamatua HicksBay Kaiteriteri Pauanui Wainui Whangapoua Matarangi Portage OpitoBay Whananaki Akaroa

bothindollarandpercentageterms,ineachofthe locationsinthetwoyearstotheendofSeptember togaugehowpopularanareawaswithbuyers.The timeframewaschosenbecauseitcoveredthepostCovidpropertyboomandtheclosureofinternational borders,anecdotallykeydrivingfactorsofthesecond homemarket.Ofthe251locationsanalysed,30enjoyed valuegrowthofmorethan50%inthetwo-yearperiod,and five,mostlyinfringecoastalspotsinDunedin,registered growthoflessthan20%.

In26locationstheaveragepropertyvaluejumped morethan$500,000inthetwo-yearperiodwhilein 12locationsgrowthwaslessthan$100,000.Thefive locationswiththebiggestpricejumpswere:Waiheke Island,Auckland(up$1,011,000to$3,622,000);Tawharanui Peninsula,Auckland(up$920,000to$2,659,000);Whitford, Auckland(up$893,000to$3,633,000);Omaha,Auckland (up$761,000to$2,724,000);andOneroa,WaihekeIsland (up$673,000to$2,349,000).

Overall,thosewhoboughtasecondhomeintheclosing monthsof2020gotthebestbachbargains.

TaupoBay RiversdaleBeach Hampden KaikouraFlat Haast Whiritoa Onemana Oakura Papatowai Orepuki TataBeach PatauaNorth CooksBeach Purakaunui Urenui Castlepoint KawauIsland Hahei Matapouri Maketu MoetapuBay Kawhia Te Rapaki oTeRakiwhakaputa WaikawaBeach Duvauchelle Moeraki Mataikona ManukauHeads Mahia Mokau Tangoio Port Underwood OkiwiBay ColacBay Kuaotunu West Tawharanui Peninsula Bowentown PalmBeach JacksonBay Whitford RakinoIsland Motunau Waimarama Te Mahia KaiumaBay Onetangi NgakutaBay WaihiBeach WaitarereBeach Porangahau Omapere MangawhaiHeads Waiotahe GreatBarrierIsland (Aotea) RobinsonsBay HalfmoonBay MahurangiEast WyunaBay Whangamata ParekuraBay Karikari Peninsula MahauSound Te Mata SouthBay CharterisBay Kakanui Mahurangi West Cape Palliser

83% 82% 78% 74% 73% 69% 68% 67% 66% 66% 65% 65% 65% 64% 64% 64% 63% 63% 63% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 57% 57% 57% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 54% 54% 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51%

Akaroa it’s got fantastic infrastructure, you can work from home easily enough and then commute into town a couple of days aweek -it’s all very doable now.”

But while Aucklanders love Akaroa’s vibe, they haven’t taken over,hesays. Mostly buyers are people who live an hour and 10 minutes’ drive away,including farmers from rural Canterbury Price-wisethe transition mightnotbe so easy either.Mangels says prices had been flat in Akaroa since the Global Financial Crisis but therewas a“pretty impressive increase” post-Covid.

Down Dunedin way,people usually head inland to Queenstown Lakes and Wanaka to buy their holiday homes, saysex-All Black Kees Meeuws, from Bayleys.

“That’s the big thing different to the rest of the country.Ifyou’refromOtago, Dunedin, Goreand everywherelike that, you head to the lakes, so you’rebuying in Wanaka. They all go skiing in the winter and in the summer they areall up thereonthe lakes so Dunedin is like adeserted town when it comes to Christmas.”

While Dunedin folk go inland, inlanders go to the coast. Rhys Vidgen, from OneAgency,lives in Karitane, asmall settlement on the east coast about 40 minutes north of Dunedin.

PeoplefromQueenstownandWanakabuytheirsecondhomesonthe coastbecausetheywanttobeabletoseethesea–andit’swarmer,hesays. ButevenallthewaydownontheeastcoastoftheSouthIsland,Covid

has had an impact. Vidgen says therehas been a“reasonable spike” of outoftownerslookingdowncountry.“Wehadalotofpeoplethatcame down from the North Island, from all over,not necessarily from places likeAuckland but from places like Whanganui and Tauranga.”

TheAucklandersespeciallyhad“Covidburnout”,hesays.“Theyjust went‘Idon’twanttolivelikethisanymore’;soalotofpeopledidgofor change of lifestyles.”

ThecoastmaybealongwayforanAucklandertorelocatebutVidgen says if they sell up “they get to stick $500,000 in their back pockets”.

PricesalongthecoastandtheOtagoPeninsuladependonthelocation and the (sometimesminimal) services but there’s not much under $300,000 anymore, and thereare also houses on the beach that might fetch $1.7m at Karitane.

But Covid also brought out alot of nostalgia for what Vidgen calls “old Zealand” with cribs (what South Islanders call baches) in places like Purakanui and Long Beach popular despite limited services.

“Thereare alot of properties and communities on the peninsula like that. People collect their waterfromthe roof, they have abig tank.”

Karitane itself, an old fishing village, is moredeveloped with mains water and sewerage, plus there’s ashop and anice café.

Dunedin buyers like the settlement because it’s only half an hour away,which is far enough to feel like they areout of town but close enough to dash back home if they need to.

The coastline is dotted with little townships and Vidgen says newcomers arewelcomed with open arms, even Aucklanders.“They hireold guys to mow their lawns and things like that. They bring revenue into these little towns and the shops love it.”

AKAROA HARBOUR, IN CANTERBURY.

PHOTO /GETTY IMAGES

Howthe superrich live on fantasyisland

Thereare baches that ordinary Kiwisaspire to and then thereare the baches that only a Lottowinwouldsecure.

Waiheke Island has someofthe most luxurious, although not everyone gets acoveted sea vieweveniftheydopartwithseveralmilliondollars

Andanyway,that panoramic view is not always as important as being close to aboat ramp for easy access for the Sealegs, an amphibious boat, says MatthewSmith,ownerofWaihekeRealEstate.

At the time of interview,Smith had just listed a high-endproperty on Kennedy Point Road.The vendors had just completeda two-year $3 million renovation of thehome, which sits on a3700sqm estate,ashortwalkfromthenewcarferry

“Hardly everdoesanything like this cometothe marketonWaiheke,”Smithsays

“We’renot saying aprice, but smart people can dothemath,”Smithsays,addingthattheproperty’s $7.6m CV doesn’t even get closetothe likely price buyerswillpay(thevendorsthemselvespaidnearly $4mfortheun-renovatedproperty14yearsago).

Smith says thatthe four-bedroom house, designed by notedarchitect Simon Carnachan, has aspectacular 300-degree ocean view almost to the Coromandel and includes aluxurious new kitchen andbathrooms, Europeanoakflooring,new double glazing, and gib boardthroughout and, on the outside, new cedar siding reclad with acavity systemandnewroofing.

Earlier this year,Smith’s agency solda section for $3.1m.Thenewownersplantobuildabachrightby the boat ramp.Another buyer went on to pay$3.2m for an old housethat sits behinditeven though the view will now be blocked out.“Thebuyer is going to bowlthe old housethat’s on thereand build a new house that will have no view of thewater and obviouslybythetimehebuildsahousehe’sgoingto beover$5m.”

What’s importanttothese buyers is the location, Smith says, becausethey canput the Sealegs in the water nearly straight across the road.Not only that, thebuyersoftheoldhouseliveinthecityandwillbe able to motor across and drive straight to their bach intheirboat.

On Palm Beach, Wall Real Estatehas justlisted a five-bedroomhome on amassive1700sqmdouble sectiononthe beachfront at 43 Palm Road. It has a CVof$9.3m,butisexpectedtofetchmorethan$10m

The 17-year-old architect-designed house also featuresone of the vintage train carriages rescued from Parnell’sWhiteHeron hotel beforeitwas torn down,nowrepurposedasasleepout.

“Weexpect it to sell for over $10m. In 2018 the neighbouring property sold for $7.5m, and that has less than half the land size,” says Ollie Wall, who is marketingthepropertywithGrahamWall.

“Palm Beach is one of the only places on Waiheke whereyoucanhaveatrulybeachfronthomewithout aroad between you and the beautiful white sand.” Headdsthatthecompanyissettingupabaseonthe islandastheyexpecttodomuchmorebusinessthere inthecomingyears.

And on one of Waiheke’s highest points, Omiha, Bayleys agent Mana Tahapehi is marketing afivebedroomestateon3.9haat1O’BrienRoad.Tahapehi, who is showing the house to buyers with budgets of over$8m,saysheisseeingmoreinternationalbuyers, mainlyexpatKiwis,helpedbytheweakKiwidollar

“Itmakesthingsalotmoreattractive,that’sUS$1m lessthanlastyear.Forthatyouhavetotalprivacy,but you’reonly minutes from Onetangi,” he says. The 463sqm accommodation is split between the main houseandtwoself-containedguestunits.

As well as the swimming pool and spa pool, the property includes asauna/steam room and cabana with an open-air fireplace, set in native bush and a

NZ'S MOSTEXPENSIVE BEACHHOMES

SALEPRICE SALE DATE ADDRESS

$10.25m November2021

$10.25m June 2021

Ocean View Road, Oneroa, WaihekeIsland

Alan Murray Lane, Oneroa, WaihekeIsland

$9.1m March 2022 Kutai Lane, Omaha, Auckland

$9m April 2022 Newton Rd, Oneroa, WaihekeIsland

$8.45m March 2022

Sea View Road, Ostend, WaihekeIsland

$8.32m October 2021 Inanga Lane, Omaha, Auckland

$8.225m October 2021

productivefruitandvegetablegarden.

Earlier this year Tahapehiclosed the deal for a Church Bay Road homefor $9.2m, which is now undergoinganextensiverenovation

The islandis bursting with award-winning architecture.

Ray White agents Keith Dowdle and Mike Simpsonare marketingastriking timber home on 28 CoromandelRoad,Waiheke, that won architects StevensLawson aNew Zealand Institute of Architects awardin2019.The three-bedroom home on 1047sqm,which has atender closing November 2, is billed as aSealegs drive from the water edge at SandyBay

Buyersare also coming to the island from other rich-listerholidaytowns

Smith recently sold asection at exclusive Wawata Estate on the island to an oral surgeon who has sold his bach at Omaha and who is also building another housein Queenstown. In anothersale, acouplefrom QueenstownboughtahouseinOneroafor$6.5mand areplanninga$3mrenovation.

“TheyliveinQueenstownandthisistheirWaiheke bach.”

Smith says for buyers of baches costing around $5m or $6m the locality is moreimportant than the view, but forholidayhomes worth $10m or more, thenbothareimportant:“Theywantthelocationand theview.”

Wealthy people come to him with alist of requirements but often havetocompromise because of limited stock: “Wedon’toften haveadecent handfulofreallygoodqualityhigh-endhomesatall, let alone closetothe beach or closetothe ferry with bigviews.”

Among the requirements is privacyand often people want to be able to come and go by helicopter, which is not often available. People also wanta principal suiteaway from the rest of the houseso when guests stay they maintain their privacy, and theyliketohavemultiplelivingspaces.

Like othercoastal spots, Smith has noticed new trendsonWaiheke,saying peopleare not only living in their bachmorenights aweek but manypeople haveupgradedtheproperty

Sea View Road, Ostend, WaihekeIsland

$7.75m August 2021 Inanga Lane, Omaha, Auckland

$7.625m October 2021 Rita Way, Omaha, Auckland

$7.41m June 2021 Seaview Road, Whangamata, Coromandel

“People want more quality now.Theywant everything to offer muchgreater lifestyle so the bach might have just been asimple bachbut they’ve put innew kitchens, newbathrooms,they’veputthe spa poolin,they’veputfireplacesin.

“Everyone’s kindofpimpeduptheir baches to be alot moreluxurious so they’reokay to spendmore timethere.”

$3m renovations and $10m-plus price tags abound on WaihekeIsland. CATHERINE MASTERS and CATHERINE SMITH checkout some of the country’s mostexpensivebeachhomes

THIS LUXURYHOMEONSEA VIEW ROAD ON WAIHEKE ISLAND SOLD FOR $8.225M IN OCTOBER LAST YEAR. PHOTO /SUPPLIED

TheOneRoof guideto buyinga bach

❷Getting nance

Buying abachorcribforthefamilytoenjoy overdecadesisstilltheultimateKiwi dream.It’s alot moredifficultnowthanthe dayswhenfamilieswouldbuildtheirown Fibrolite(asbestoscement)shackonsite,orbuyland, add atoiletandelectricity,andcamp.

These days,seven-figuremortgages,complicated taxbills,anddesignerdecoraremorelikelytocomeup inconversationthanthepriceofFibrolite.Butfamilies stillfindwaystobuytheirownsliceofparadise.

Bachescome inallshapesandsizes.InWaihi Beach,forexample,pricesrangefromjustunder $400,000tojustover$4m.LJHookerprincipalGary Alwayssayssimplebachesare stillinhotdemand, butnotallwillsurvivethewreckingball,however. “Old-schoolbachesareunfortunatelybecominga thingofthepast.Peoplewantholidayhomesthat aremoreuptodate.”

ChrisFarhi,headofinsightsatBayleys,says Kiwiattitudestobacheshavealsochanged,with many recentbuyerstreatingbeachhousesastheir permanenthome.“We’reseeingincreasingnumbers ofbuyerswhoareplanningtopermanentlylocate intoholidayhomelocations,”hesays.

“Remoteworkingmeanssome professionals areinfrequentlyintheoffice,sothey’retakingthe opportunitytopermanently resideintheplacethat theylove.Thishas thepotentialtoimpactmarket pricingdynamicsbecausesomebuyerswillbeable topricepropertiesastheirmainhome,ratherthanas asecondhome.”

❶

What youcan expect to pay

Luxuryholiday homescansellformore than $10m,butthoselookingforsomethingmoreaffordable, it’sworthhuntingoutsidethemostdesirablebeach towns.

PalmerstonNorthCentury21principal Tim KearinsthoughtjustthataftervisitingKawhia,on Waikato’swestcoast,anhour’sdrivesouthofRaglan. Thecoastalspot’saveragepropertyvalueis$620,000 –halfoftheaveragepropertyvalueinRaglan.

“Thereare somelovely Waikato beachesthat Auckland[buyers]maynotbeawareof.Kawhiais oldNewZealand,likeWhitianga,intheCoromandel, was30yearsago,”Kearinssays.

Furthersouth,inMangakino,on theedges of LakeMaraetai,in Taupo,thepriceof renovated bachesstartinthe mid-$400,000s,whilebuyers who arewillingtotakeon arenovationprojectcanbuy somethingforless.

SouthIslanderscanpickupsectionsonthe West Coastforaslittleas$50,000,withhomesonthecoast someofthecheapestinNewZealand.

Gettingfinancetobuyabachisoftenthehardest step,butthegoodnewsisthatholidayhomescanbe boughtwith a20%deposit, evenifthebuyersplanto letthemoutfor asmallnumber ofdaysayear.“It’sa littlequirk[oftheLVRrules]whereyoucanborrowup to80%,”mortgagebrokerRupertGoughsays. “The consistentwordingacross all[bank]policiesseems to bethatabach‘mustreceiveminimalrentalincome’.”

Buyerswhowanttoletthepropertyshortorlongtermfallunderthe LVRrules for rentals andneed a40%depositunlessbuying abrand-newproperty whenonly20%isneeded.Andiftheywantto turntheirbachinto ashort-term rental,theycan’t countthepotentialincomeagainsttheirmortgage repaymentsandwillhavetoprove to alenderthat theycanaffordtopaytheentiremortgage,overand abovetheir existingcommitments.

That’sbecauseshort-termrentalincomeisviewed bythebanksinthesamewayas self-employed incomeandneedstwoyearsofaccountstoprove, whichbuyers don’thavewhenpurchasing.“You can’treallyprove thataheadoftimeunlessthere was along-termtenantthere,”Goughsays.

Heurgesbuyerstobeupfrontwiththeirlender. Buyerssign declarationswhenbuyinganyhome,so pretendingapurchasewon’tbelettopayingtenants orfalselypromisingthatitwillbelettolong-term tenants canendintrouble.

Havingsaidthat,turningalong-termrentalproperty into ashort-termoneafterareasonableperiodoftime won’tbe aproblem formostbanks,says Gough.“It’s thesameaschangingjobsintwoyears’timeandtaking apaycut.Youdon’tneedtotellthebank.”

Findinglong-termtenantsisn’tdifficult.Farhi pointsoutthatinmostholidaylocationslong-term rentalshaveverylowvacancies.“Thisislargely duetopropertiesbeingpulledintoshort-stay servicessuchasAirbnbratherthanbeingoffered aspermanent rentals.Forexample,Whitianga currentlyhashalf adozen rentallistings,butthere areacouple ofhundredAirbnboptions.”

❸Maximisingincome

It’seasytoletbacheson theshort-term rental marketoverChristmas/New Yearand on long weekends.Butfor adecent returnownersneedto dosomeseriousmarketingtokeeptheplacefulland maximiseincome.

Goneare thedaysofhavingone rentalforthe winterandshort-termtenantsinthesummer.The Residential TenanciesAct(1986)makesitdifficultto getwintertenantstoleaveforthesummerholiday period,unless theownersaremovingbackinas their mainhome.

Thenextproblem isthatletting through thelikes ofAirbnborBachcare,isn’talways straightforward. Ownerscomplainthatwhen tenantsdodamageor holdpartiestheagenciesdon’thavetheirbacks.

❹Taxobligations

Incomefrombachlettingisfullytaxable.The rulesaren’tentirelysimpleanditcanbe agoodidea tousean accountant.

The mostcommontax rulethatappliestoa holidayhomeistheInlandRevenue Department’s mixed useassetrulewherethereisboth business andprivateuse.

Theruleallowsownerstodeductdirectcostssuch ascleaningafter apaidguest,butonlyapportion otherexpensessuchasratesandinsuranceaccording tothenumberof daysusedas abusiness.

Likeother rentalproperties,mortgageinterest deductibilityisbeingphasedout,althoughnewbuildsare exempt.Alsolikeother rentalproperties, “ringfencing”applies whether it’s anew-buildor not.Ringfencingmeansifapropertymakes alossit can’tbeclaimedagainsttheowner’sotherincome. Itcanonlybeoffsetagainstfuturerentalincome, whichneedsthepropertytomake aprofit.

Occasionally a“bach”orholidayhomeis registeredfor GST.Anyone purchasingsucha holidayhomeneedstoseekspecialisttaxadvice. Sotoo doesanyonewhoexpectstomakemorethan $60,000 ayearin rentontheproperty.

Everwonderedwhatitwouldbeliketobuy abeach housein NewZealand? DIANA CLEMENT walksyouthroughtheprocess.

PHO TO /G ETTYIMAGES

Over the following pages OneRoof examines a turbulent year in real estate in whichasoaring housing market was brought backdown to earth by the twin pressures of rising interest rates and atighter lending environment.The Year in Reviewidentifies the market'swinners and losersand looksat factorsthatwillhavean impact on buyerand seller decisions in 2023.

$1,100,000

$1,075,000

$1,050,000

Whatgoesup…

$1,025,000

$1,000,000 $975,000 $950,000 $925,000 $900,000 $875,000 $850,000 $825,000 $800,000 $775,000 $750,000 $725,000 $700,000

The housing market wentfromFOMO (Fear of Missing Out)to FOOP(Fear of Overpaying), as the unexpected Covid-related boom times gave way to fallinghouse prices, tighter credit conditions and uncertainty about the year ahead.

Agents andexperts spoken to by OneRoof say the last12 monthsin real estatehave been amongthe strangest they have encountered, with one saying “existential” factors influenced the marketasNew Zealanders grappled with events outside their control.

Economist Brad Olsen says house priceshave fallen morethan anyone would have expected becausethey had wentway higher than expected during the post Covid boom, which hit its peakin the closing monthsof2021.

Therehas beenanelement of helplessnessback in New Zealand.“We can'tdoa lotabout some of theselarger global issues, we areatthe mercyofthe rest of the world. But we also have to take responsibility for whatwecan hereathome because the challenges coming through arequite significant hits to households and businesses.”

EMPTYAUCTION ROOMS

Barfoot &Thompson auctioneer Campbell Dunoon, who noticed auction rooms emptyout in late March, says people wererattled by worldevents.

“Therewereexistential factors affecting people'sdecision to buy aproperty -Idon't thinkitwas interestrates and Idon't think it wasthe local economy, because we'veall gotjobsand we've gota shortage of people forjobs.

“But what Idobelieve is therewerejust so many things happening outsideofNew Zealand thatcaused ourselves and our cousinsacross the ditch to stop for asecond and say‘OK,do we needtogointodebt right now, should we justhold off and see what happens?’.”

“Partofitreally wasthatlow interest rate environment stuck aroundfor toolong, certainlyinhindsight,” says the principal economist and director at Infometrics

It’s beenchallenging, “to putitmildly”, to forecast the market since Covid arrived, he says.

“I think everyonewas abit reluctant to allofasuddencall a turnaround[earlier this year] given we’dall been burnt at the start of Covid,given things didn’t turn around.”

The country saw debate around whether highinflation would be transitory or persistent and outbreaks of theDeltaand Omicronstrains clouded thepicture

“You couldn’t geta full reading on how strong or not the economymight have been andsoI thinkthere wasjusta huge numberofballsupinthe airand none of us was quite sure which one was going to come down first.”

Inflation has turned out to be the highestfor 32 years in a strangeyear which saw war in Europe and the threat of nuclear weapons being used, Olsen says.

“I remember at the start of this year specificallybringingup the conversationabout Ukraine andthe geopolitical outlook.

“I wasn'tformallyforecasting war if you will but Iremember havingthat conversationand the risks that it posed.

“That wassomething we highlighted to our clients and those we spoke with earlier in the year andsoto see that then come out andthrough that firstand second quarter of theyear was very unsettling.”

The fact people weretalking openly about the possibility of atactical nuclear bomb explodinginthe battlefieldis“insane”, Olsen says

The absence of people at auction roomscontinued through the winterthen started to pick up,he says Bayleys national auction managerConnorPatton says Auckland was the firstto noticethe slowdownin auction rooms butother parts of thecountry, such as Canterbury, Queenstown, Marlborough andBlenheim, werestill goingstrong into the middle of the year PattonthinksAuckland was faster to fallbecause the numbers arebigger: “If you buya $2.5m house inAuckland, which we sell every week,you might have amortgage of circa $2m,which in terms of interest rate rises and the effect of that is muchdifferent to Christchurch, whereyour average sales price is $800,000to$1m andyou've got amortgage of $600,000.”

By September,the market wasstarting to pick up inAuckland but the pacewas still slower than the boom times.

“Lastyear,Ican remember sceneswhere we literally had two different buyers on thephone andboth of them just hadtheir arms up andwouldn't take them down -asquick as Icould count, thatwas howfast the bidding was going up.”

The frenzied pace slowed in conjunction with changes to the CCCFA,which affected people’sability to get finance:“It wasn't just the affordability of money butinhindsight the relativeease of it,”Patton says.

FASTER AND HIGHER

SanjeevJangra, aLoan Market mortgage adviserwho works

Rising interest rates, falling house prices and global turmoil -analysts and agents say the last12months have been some of the most turbulent and challenging for the housingmarket, writes CATHERINE MASTERS

“I

INFOMETRICS ECONOMIST BRAD OLSEN

inAuckland’s south, saysinterest rate hikes took people by surprise, especially last year's borrowers who werenot expecting them togo so highsofast

Prices have come down but so has affordability meaning people who bought a$1m house last year with a10% deposit will have to find another $1500 to $2000 if their loan comes up for renewal this year

One of the big changes Jangra has noticed this year is a switch in his client base from 40 or 50% investors to around 80% first-home buyers.

Investors havehit problems, he says, because with property values down 15 or 20% they don’thave enough equity

“Generally,aninvestor will borrow almost 100% of an investment property but given the value of their ownproperty has dropped quite abit there's not enough equity and so they're just probably sitting on the sidelines.”

Jangra recalls panic buying in October and November last year ahead of the CCCFAchanges on December 1but says after that every thirdorfourth loan was declined by the banks.

He has still had abusy year,saying therehave been alot of first-home buyers around, including around 165,000 migrants getting residency.“Alot of them have been saving for deposits for their first home and they arepretty active.”

Steve Koerber,who works the wealthy Remuera market for Ray White, has seen ayear of little urgency from buyers.

He says somebuyers expected to see desperate sellers and werewaiting to swoop but very few people have appeared to be in financial trouble.

Prior to November last year the market was “frothy” with some big prices being paid as buyers threw caution to the wind.

In hindsight, people werepaying too much: “Itwas a bit reckless really,and that allcame to an end pretty much around last November.”

Koerber also says higher interest rates and the CCCFAchanges slowed the market with the market hereslowing much faster than across the Tasman: “Our lending rules changed and Australia’s didn't.”

He also says fear in the market stopped people from listing their properties.

“Fear that they won't get what

they would have got, that they arenot as wealthy (on paper) as they were. They know the house is not worth as much as it was last year and it does make them procrastinate.”

Koerber says the year has been a good learning experience. “In the past when it was ahot market and people were climbing all over eachother,weneeded to focus on the top two or three people. Now, we have to dig deeper and go to the top 20 because the top 19 might drop off.”

‘IT WILLGET BETTER’

In Wellington,Nicki Cruickshank, the principal of Tommy’s, says“turbulent”isthe best descriptorfortheyear.

She, too, says prices went higher than expected lastyear so the drop this year was to be expected -but she had not expected the turnaround to be so sudden.

“But in the big picturemost people own houses for10yearsplus so overall they've still done well.”

Her high point has been seeing morefirst-home buyers returning to the market after apretty direstart to the year, saying they dropped out for various reasons but especially because of the CCCFAchanges.

By September,she was seeinga lot morepeople looking who werenolonger waiting for the bottom of the market.

Cruickshank says her low point was trying to keep nervous sellers positive when thereweresofew buyers.

“Probably the hardest part of these sorts of market is trying to keep owners’spirits up, telling them it will get better.”

She says the year has been the most unusual she can remember in nearly 20 years of being in real estate, aside from the GFC.

“Just to watch it go up so quickly, unbelievably quickly,people paying what seemed like ridiculous money for properties, to it going down equally quickly and the impactthat's had.”

Nine raterises that turned NZ on itshead

Interest rates and inflation arethe biggest influencing factors in the housingmarketright now KELVIN DAVIDSON charts therapid rise of the Official Cash Rate

It’s now been overayear sincethe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) first started to increase theofficial cash rate (OCR), with amovefrom0.25%to0.5%onOctober 6last year.The direct aim of these OCR increases has been to quell inflationary pressuresinthe economy, but also as theysimultaneously try to stick to the high employment part of their mandate too. Butthe housing marketclearly hasn’t been immune to this monetary policy tighteningphase either,and so we take alook here at key developments over the past year or so

October 6, 2021

•OCRrisesfrom0.25%to0.5%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:2.9%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:5.2%

•SalesvolumesversusOctobernorm:-3.3%

InAugust’sMonetaryPolicyStatementlastyear, theRBNZhaddecidedtokeeptheOCRat0.25%, notingthat“recentincreasesininflationarelargely temporary”.However,mortgageratesstartedto increasemoreappreciablyfromearlySeptember,and then–onlytwomonthsafternotingthepotentialfor short-lastedinflation–theRBNZactuallydelivered thefirstOCRrise.Forcontext,theSeptemberquarter inflationdata(publishedalittlelateronOctober18) showedafigureof4.9%,wellabovetheaverageof around1.5%overthepreviousfiveyears.

Inthepropertymarket,saleshadalreadybegunto weaken,andforthemonthofOctoberwerearound 3%belowthenormforthatmonthoftheyear(going back20years).Butpropertyvalueswerestillrising.

November24, 2021

•OCRrisesfrom0.5%to0.75%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:3.3%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:5.4% •SalesvolumesversusNovembernorm:-2.6%

At this stage, economic matters wereprobably best summed up as “steady as she goes”, with inflation stillakey talkingpoint, butthe RBNZfeeling comfortable withonly a0.25 percentage point increase in theOCR at November’s meeting.

The property marketwasn’tnecessarily doing anythingdramatic either, although of coursemore new borrowerswerebeing curtailed by afurther rise in mortgage rates, andsome existing borrowers wouldhave been facing up to higherrepayments as their current loan term ended. Indeed,asat November 2021, the one-year fixed rate had risen by aboutone percentage point over 12 months. However,the bigger factor in the property market was the tighteningofthe loan to value ratiorules for owner-occupiers on November 1, from 20% of loans being allowedatless thana 20% deposit, to only 10% of loans at lowdeposit. Moreover,the CCCFA rules wereabouttobetightened too…

February23, 2022

•OCRrisesto1%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:3.6%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:4.9%

•SalesvolumesversusFebruarynorm:-28.7%

By now,someofthe key variableshad begun to change noticeably.CPI inflationhad risen to 5.9%inthe December 2021 quarter,and inflation expectationsremainedelevated too, with businesses fearingthe outlook forinputcost pressures, and consumers facing up to cost of living strains(which the Governmentlater attempted to mitigate with the cuts in fueltax andthe $350 CostofLiving Payment). That said,the RBNZ stillstucktothe conventional0.25%OCR rise,taking it to 1%

The property market was also shifting. With the CCCFArulechanges having been enacted (from December 1, 2021) and the tighter LVRs also biting, the market sharefor first-home buyers was declining, hitting 23% in February.Itwasn’t much easier for mortgaged investors either,as they continued to grapple with low rental yields, higher mortgage rates, 40% deposits (unless buying newbuilds), and the interest deductibility adjustments

April13, 2022

•OCRrisesto1.5%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:4.1%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:0.7%

•SalesvolumesversusAprilnorm:-32.2%

April saw thefirst of theso-called “double shot” hikes in the OCR, taking it from 1% to1.5%,as inflationwas confirmedat6.9% (annual rate) in the first quarterof2022(albeitthe CPI data wasn’t released untilApril 21, after the OCR decision).

The effects of tighter monetary policy were showing through very clearly in the housing market, with atypical one-year fixed mortgage rate climbing above 4%, with the change since borrowers originally fixed one year prior standing at about 2% –i.e. adoubling of mortgage rates in the space of a year.Property sales volumes remained at very low levels and property values had stalled as well.

May25, 2022

•OCRrisesto2%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:4.4%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:-0.9%

•SalesvolumesversusMaynorm:-28.9%

The process of monetary policy tightening was certainly in full stride by the timeMay rolled around, and the OCR reached 2% on the25th, with a typical one-yearfixed mortgage rate sitting at close to 4.5%. We didn’t have the Q2 CPI data at that stage, of course, but we now know thatinflationover the second quarter climbedto 7.3%. The net result is intense pressureonhousehold finances, both from the cost of living itself, but also higher mortgage repayments (albeitabenefit for savers).

Inthepropertymarket,salesremainedsluggish,and valuescontinuedtodrop.Theeffectsofpastchanges totheLVRsandCCCFAruleswereclearlyimpacting firsthomebuyers,whosawtheirmarketsharedipto just22%,lessthanmortgagedinvestorsat23%

July 13, 2022

•OCRrisesto2.5%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:5.2%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:-2.5%

•SalesversusJulynorm:-33.6%

July saw another 0.5 percentagepoint OCR increase, taking it to 2.5%, asthe inflationfightremained front and centrefor the RBNZ –not just actual inflation, butalso expectations ofwhereitmight go next.

The periodfromMay toJulyhad also seen mortgage rates rise even moresharply,and anybody repricing aloan that had been securedone year earlierwould have been looking at arate rise of at least 2.5%,probably closer to 3%.

Themarketsharesforvariousbuyergroupswere alsostagnant,butatleastfromtheperspectiveoffirst homebuyers,theCCCFAruleshadbeenloosened fromJuly7–meaninglessscrutinyofexpenses,and aslightlylooserborrowingenvironment

August17, 2022

•OCRrisesto3%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgage:4.9%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:-3.5%

•SalesvolumesversusAugustnorm:-31.2%

August brought the fourth consecutive 0.5 percentage point rise in the OCR,taking it to 3%.

However,competition amongst the banksfora shrinking pool ofnew mortgage lending, combined with some fallsin offshorewholesale interest rates, saw domestic NZ mortgage rates dip abit, back down below the 5% mark.Alongside the effects of looser CCCFAregulations– and perhaps also a change in mood amongst would-be buyers –a hiatus for mortgage rateincreases helped bring back some first-home buyers, who saw their market sharerise to 24% inAugust.

October 5, 2022

•OCRrisesto3.5%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:5.2%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:-4.1%

•SalesversusSeptembernorm-33.3%

The foot was still flattothe floor,withanother 0.5%

OCR increase in October,taking thelevel to 3.5%.

MORTGAGEHOLDERS ARE FEELING THE SQUEEZE.

PHOTO /GETTY IMAGES

We alsonowknowthatCPIinflationinQ3barely changed,onlyslowingslightlyto7.2% –hardly reassuring,and“lockingin”furtherOCRincreases inNovember thisyear, andinto2023aswell. Ultimately, apeakofatleast4.5% nowlookslikely, potentiallyashighas 5%ormore.Atypicalone-year fixed“special”mortgagerate couldeasilytop7%.

Inthepropertymarket,salesvolumes remain ultra-low,andpropertyvaluescontinuetofall. Moreencouragingly,atleastfirst-homebuyersare showingsignsoflife,atleastintermsof %market share(evenifthenumberofdealsis stilllow).

However,August’sfallsinmortgagerateshavenow been reversed,andthepeakisnotyetonthecards.

November 23, 2022

•OCRrisesto4.25%

•Typicalone-yearfixedmortgagerate:6%

•Three-monthchangeinaverageproperty values:-4.5%

•SalesvolumesversusOctobernorm:-38.6%

ThelatestOCRincreaseisthebiggestonrecord,and theReserveBankhasalsosignalledplentymore tocome(apossiblepeakof5.5%),withinflation potentiallynotundersomekindofcontroluntil laternextyear,arecessioneminentlypossible,and unemploymentedginghigher.Housepricesare anticipatedbytheRBNZtoultimatelydropby20%, sointermsofthepropertymarket,atypicaloneyearfixedrate(highequity)couldeasilytop7% overthecomingmonths.Thiswillputpressureon newborrowers,butalsothoserollingoffpreviously lowerfixedratesandontoamuchhigherrepayment schedule.

Conclusion

Clearly,the pastyearhasbeenatoughonefor the propertymarket,whichhasbeencollateraldamage intheRBNZ’sdeterminedpathtoknobbleinflation. But theworkisn’tdoneyet,andboththeOCRand mortgagerateshavefurther torise.

Thismeansthatinalllikelihoodpropertysales volumeswill remainlacklustrefor awhileyetand thatvalueshavefurthertofall.However,it’sstill conceivablethatiftheeconomyticksover(and unemploymentstayslow), wagescontinuetorise, netmigrationturnsaroundtosomedegree,and mortgageratesfindsomekindofpeak,wemightsee propertysalesactivitystarttoriseagainin 2023and thefallsinpricescouldcometo anend.

Inthatenvironment,itwouldn’tbeasurpriseto seeadecentpresenceforfirsthomebuyers,butthe outlookremainstrickyfornewinvestorslookingto makeapurchaseorforexistinglandlordswantingto addtotheirportfolios.Otherhomeowners/borrowers willalsocontinuetofacepressuresastheyreprice theirloansoffolder,lowerfixedratesandontocurrent levels.

Finally,thereare twootherimportantpoints toputacrossallofthistoo.First,the regulatory environmentissettoloosenagainin Marchnext year,withfurtherchangestotheCCCFArules.And second,theRBNZ’sconsultation on formalcapsfor debttoincomeratiosstilllingersinthebackground–anychangeshereearlyin2024couldpotentiallyalso beaccompaniedby relaxationofthe LVRrulesatthe sametime.

•KelvinDavidsonischiefeconomistatproperty

Whatthehousingmarket can expectin 2023

JAMESWILSON looksat thefactorsthathaveanimpactonbuyersand sellersinthenext12months.

❶Reducedsalesactivity

There’snothingthatpointsto abiguptickinsalesvolumesnextyear.We're seeingmorepropertiescometo marketoff thebackofspringandweexpectthatto continueintosummerbutwe'renotnecessarilyseeingthem flyingoff theshelf,they’re still aweebitsubduedinterms of gettinginkonpaper. Theremightbe abitmoreactivityintermsofpeopleoutlookingbutit remainstobe seenwhetherthattranslatesintosales.

❷

Volatilityinthenumbers

If thereare lotsofsalesonemonthand hardlyanysalesthenextmonth,the numberscouldreally starttojumparound.Theperformanceofvarioussubmarketswill bekeyto understanding what’sgoingon.Forexample,performingquitestronglyright inAucklandarenew-buildtownhousesinthesub-$1.5m pricebracket –yourtypical firsthomebuyer-typeterritory.Butif youlookat the$3m-pluslarger townhouse marketinAuckland,there’snot thesamelevelofdemand.

❸

Whowillbuyand sell?

Firsthomebuyerswillbeonthehuntforopportunitiesnextyear.Lesscompetition frominvestorsmeanstheywill beabletostaymore activeinthemarket,andkeeptheir share high,eveniftheactualnumberofdealsfallsaway. Investorsareverysensitive tointerestrateincreases,andwhilewecouldn’tsaywithconfidencetheirshare ofthe marketwilldecline significantlyfromcurrentlevels,theywillbeunderpressure.

❹

Theelection

Nodatehas beensetbutin thepast peoplehaveusuallyhit pause on anyhousing marketdecisionsinthelead uptoageneralelection. In ahotmarket,theFOMO(fearof missingout)effecttakesoverbut wedon'thavethatanymore sothepauseeffectcould begreaterthanthelast fewelections.

Achangeofgovernmentcouldbe aboosttotheinvestormarket,giventhatNational hassignalledthatitwantstoaddresssomeofthechangesbroughtinbyLabourto curbinvestoractivity.Watchthisspaceonwherepolicylands;thebrightline rule couldbe reducedandthelawsaroundtheringfencingoflosses couldberolledback.

❺

OCR/Interestrates

Interestraterisesare likelytokeeprising,withtheReserveBankclearlysignalling initslaststatementof the yearthatfurtherincreasesintheOfficial CashRateareon thecardsinabid tobringdowninflation.Whiletheriseof75basispointslastmonthis thebiggestcashrateriseintheBank’shistory, the referencestoarecessionand rising unemploymentthatcouldhavea much biggerimpact,scaringwould-bebuyersand sellersintohittingpause.

❻In ation

Inflationisthe elephantinthe roomandwon’tdisappearovernight.But whilecost oflivingpressuresarereachingacrossnearlyallpartsofourdailylives,we'reactually notseeing asignificantdropinspendingandthat's probablybecause alotofpeoplestill haven'thadtofixtheirmortgageatahigherrate. Whenthathappensandthosemortgageratesbeginto reallybite,thenspendingis likelytodryup.

Obviously,thathasbiggereconomicimpactsbut thekeyquestionis:willinflationbetamedby traditionalpolicyorwillahard,economic landingdothejob?Atthispoint,alotofsigns pointtoaharderlandingthanwouldbeideal.

❼Property values

Propertyvalues havesoftenedand that trendislikely to continue intonextyear but at aslowerrate.

Expectprobablymoreofa flatmarketasa ruleasopposedtoacontinuallydeclining market,but Iwouldn'tbesurprisedif thatcouldtake acoupleofquarters to really revealitself.

JamesWilsonisdirectorof valuationatValocity

2022 wasthe yearofmortgage pain–will next year be anybetter?

Ithas,withoutquestion,beenahardyearformost homeownerswithamortgage.Thecostofliving ismorethandoubletheacceptablerateofinflation, mortgageinterestratesaredoublewhattheywere ayearago,andmostKiwihomeownerswillhavefeltthe additionalcostofhighermortgageratesatsomepointthis yearastheirfixedratesmatured.

Butwhataboutthose whoarelookingtobuyin 2023?This year,borrowersweremetwiththe strictest borrowingpoliciessince2008,makingitextremely difficulttogetonthe propertyladder. Will2023beany better? To forecastwhatborrowingwilllooklikeinthe nearfuture, wemustfirstlookatwhatgotustothis position.

Attheriskof minimisingthepain causedbyinterest rateincreases,thebiggestbrakeonthemarketthisyear wasthesudden withdrawaloffinanceduetolastyear’s changestotheCredit ContractsandConsumerFinance Act(CCCFA). “Withdrawaloffinance”isn’tactuallya fairtermasitinsinuatesthatthebanksvolunteeredto makeborrowingmoredifficult. Instead,thebankshad toadheretothe new rulesthat madeitalmostimpossible tolendto mostapplicants.

Thissuddeninabilityforallbuttheverybest applicantstogetfinance hadtwo outcomes; it removed asignificant percentageofthebuyersfromthe market astheir mortgage pre-approvalsweredeclined,and shooktheenthusiasmforthosewhowereapprovedby thebank.Addinthe mixthe sharplyincreasinginterest

rates boilin wass Fastforwa itornot,things hom have mortgag tomeet servicing wasa Allthat buyer willgoandho former listoff around6%.

Foranyone consideringbuying ahomein2023,the firststepI wouldsuggestistofind outhowmuchyou canaffordunderthecurrentbankpolicies.There is almostnoharminasking thebank oryourbrokerwhat yourcurrent mortgageaffordabilityis.It’sunlikely thatbanklending policieswillchange muchinthenext 12 months;ifanything, they may relax abitfurther, so findingout howmuchyoucanborrowtodaywill probablyletyouknowwhereyoustand forallof2023.

Ifyoucan’t borrowenoughtopurchasethehouseyou want, findoutwhatisholdingyouback.Itisusually your depositoryourincome/expenses. Takethe nextsix

urdle; deposit ry to penses. orrow ndthemselveshesitant omenttoconsider monthsago:queues

ould er hiscool you aluescould anissuefor story tellsusthatbythe timewerealisehouseshavereached thebottomandstartedtoincreaseinvalueagain,the openhomeshavestartedtofillagainandyou’vemissed out on thebuyer’s market.

In short,Iexpect2023tobetheyearofthenewnorm. Interestratesshould remainfairly closeto wherethey arenowandstaythere, house pricesmay drop alittle furtherbutevenoutinthe early partoftheyear.Bank lendingpolicies willremain alittlepainfulbut shouldn’t getsignificantlyharsher. Thispresentsthebestbuying opportunityfor apre-approvedbuyerinyears.

•RupertGoughworksforMortgageLabandisauthorof TheSuccessfulFirstHomeBuyer.

Winnersand losers

Even in ayear beset by financeand sales challenges, thereweresome suburbs that managed to defymarketgravity and recordstrong value growth. But the trend-line formuch of the housing marketnationally and in Whanganuihas been downwards.

NEW ZEALAND

MOST EXPENSIVE:HIGHEST AVERAGEPROPERTYVALUES

#SuburbValue $

Herne Bay(Auckland)$3,816,000

Coatesville (Auckland)$3,752,000

Whitford (Auckland)$3,611,000

Waiheke Island (Auckland)$3,520,000

Saint Marys Bay(Auckland)$3,091,000

Remuera(Auckland)$2,949,000

OkuraBush (Auckland)$2,760,000

Westmere(Auckland)$2,699,000

Omaha (Auckland)$2,683,000

Ponsonby(Auckland)$2,558,000

MARKETHEAT: BIGGEST 12 MONTH VALUECHANGE #Suburb% change ➊ Glenorchy(Queenstown-Lakes) 28.9%

Ohai (Southland)28.5%

Tuatapere(Southland)28.0%

Takapau (Central Hawke's Bay) 24.4%

Reefton(Buller) 24.3%

Lake Hayes(Queenstown-Lakes) 24.2%

Lake Hawea (Queenstown-Lakes) 23.7%

Karamea (Buller) 22.8%

Turua (Hauraki)22.5%

LONG TERM GROWTH: BIGGEST 5 YEAR VALUECHANGE #Suburb% change

Raetihi (Ruapehu) 212.3%

Patea(SouthTaranaki)175.6%

Mangakino (Taupo) 175.6%

Takapau (Central Hawke's Bay) 174.6%

Waverley(SouthTaranaki)167.3%

Eketahuna (Tararua) 166.9%

Castlecliff (Whanganui)162.3%

Elgin (Gisborne) 155.1%

Manaia (SouthTaranaki)152.9%

Hunterville (Rangitikei)152.8%

Paritai Drive,Orakei, Auckland May-22 $20,000,000

RemueraRoad, Remuera, Auckland May-22 $12,000,000

ArneyRoad, Remuera, Auckland Jul-22 $11,550,000

Ranui Road, Remuera, Auckland May-22 $11,400,000

Victoria Avenue, Remuera, Auckland Feb-22 $11,000,000

Oceanbeach Rd,Mount Maunganui, Tauranga May-22 $11,000,000

Wood Lane, Fendalton, Christchurch Mar-22 $11,000,000

Victoria Avenue, Remuera, Auckland Aug-22 $10,250,000

Marine Parade, Mount Maunganui, Tauranga Apr-22 $10,000,000

StateHighway2North,Bethlehem, Tauranga Jun-22 $10,000,000

CHEAPEST:LOWEST AVERAGEPROPERTYVALUES

Ohai (Southland)$158,000

Runanga (Grey) $247,000

Mataura(Gore)$254,000

Cobden (Grey) $262,000

Blaketown (Grey) $280,000

Ross (Westland)$298,000

Kaitangata (Clutha) $298,000

Tuatapere(Southland)$311,000

Appleby(Invercargill)$323,000

Bluff (Invercargill)$324,000

DANGER ZONE:LOWEST 12 MONTH VALUECHANGE #Suburb% change ➊ Waiwhetu (Lower Hutt)-19.7%

Maoribank (Upper Hutt)-19.5% ➌ Boulcott (Lower Hutt)-19.3%

Fairfield (Lower Hutt)-18.9%

Brown Owl (Upper Hutt)-18.9%

Clouston Park (Upper Hutt)-18.9%

Waterloo (Lower Hutt)-18.8%

Alicetown (Lower Hutt)-18.4%

Melrose (Wellington) -18.2%

Ebdentown (Upper Hutt)-18.0%

LONG TERM GROWTH: LOWEST 5 YEAR VALUECHANGE

Auckland Central (Auckland)0.3%

Grafton(Auckland)7.2%

Long Bay(Auckland)7.5%

Waiwera(Auckland)11.2%

Wainui (Auckland)12.4%

Waiake (Auckland)13.2%

Manukau (Auckland)13.6%

Castor Bay(Auckland)14.2%

Mairangi Bay(Auckland)14.5%

Mission Bay(Auckland)15.5%

BOTTOM SALES

Thedatacoversthe12monthstotheendofOctober2022andisderivedfromtheOneRoof-ValocityHouseValueIndex.Onlysuburbswith15ormoresettledsales inthe12-monthperiodtotheendofOctoberareincluded.Thetopsalestablesfeaturesettledsalesofpropertiesthatwerelistedontheopenmarketandsold privately.ThedatacoverstheyeartotheendofOctober2022.Streetaddressesaregivenbutforreasonsofprivacy,streetnumbersareomitted.

HIGHEST AVERAGEPROPERTYVALUE #SuburbValue $

Brunswick $1,015,000

Westmere$1,006,000

Otamatea $888,000

Saint Johns Hill $688,000

Durie Hill $609,000

BIGGEST 12 MONTH VALUECHANGE

change

Brunswick 3.3%

Castlecliff 1.4%

Westmere1.1%

Aramoho 0.6%

Springvale -1.6%

BIGGEST 5 YEAR VALUECHANGE

Castlecliff 162.3%

Aramoho 142.8%

Gonville 140.3%

Whanganui East 125.8%

Whanganui 122.9%

TOPSALES

Eaton Crescent,Otamatea Mar-22 $2,000,000

Belmont Road, WestmereApr-22 $1,750,000

Hipango Terrace, Durie Hill May-22 $1,585,000

Great North Road, Otamatea Mar-22 $1,475,000

EdithCollier Drive,Otamatea Mar-22 $1,350,000

MAJOR METROS

LOWEST AVERAGEPROPERTYVALUE

Whanganui $419,000

Gonville $435,000

Castlecliff $438,000

Whanganui East $472,000

Aramoho $488,000

LOWEST 12 MONTH VALUECHANGE

Whanganui -4.3%

Saint Johns Hill -3.9%

Gonville -3.5%

Durie Hill -3.3%

Tawhero-2.5%

LOWEST 5-YEAR VALUECHANGE

Otamatea 88.5%

Brunswick 94.8%

Saint Johns Hill 97.1%

Westmere99.2%

Springvale 107.2%

BOTTOM SALES

Matai Street,Castlecliff Mar-22 $215,000

Taupata Street,Castlecliff Jul-22 $227,000

Raupo Street,Castlecliff May-22 $250,000

Churchill Crescent,TawheroMay-22 $250,000

Murch Place, TawheroMay-22 $265,000

MOSTEXPENSIVE AND CHEAPEST 12 MONTH VALUECHANGE TOPAND BOTTOM

AUCKLAND

AUCKLAND

Herne Bay$3,816,000

Coatesville $3,752,000 Whitford $3,611,000 Grafton$704,000

Manukau $662,000 Auckland Central $612,000

CHRISTCHURCH

SuburbValue $

Fendalton $1,679,000 Merivale $1,484,000 Richmond Hill $1,328,000

Linwood $485,000 Aranui $446,000 Phillipstown $439,000

HAMILTON

SuburbValue $

Flagstaff $1,192,000 Huntington $1,115,000

Rototuna North $1,077,000

Deanwell $661,000

Enderley$632,000 Bader $611,000

WELLINGTON

SuburbValue $

Oriental Bay$2,310,000

Seatoun $1,848,000

Karaka Bays $1,664,000

Mount Cook $829,000

Te Aro$767,000 Wellington Central $576,000

Suburb% change

Coatesville 13.3% Pollok 12.3% Te Arai 11.9% Wesley-12.8% Manurewa East -15.0% Point England -15.5%

CHRISTCHURCH

Suburb% change

Burwood 11.9% Marshland 11.9% Westmorland 11.2% Redcliffs1.8% Merivale 0.7% Fendalton -2.6%

HAMILTON

Suburb% change

Queenwood 6.3% Whitiora4.3% Beerescourt2.9%

Deanwell -4.3% Rototuna North -6.3% Hamilton Lake -7.5%

WELLINGTON

Suburb% change

Te Aro-7.6%

Seatoun -8.0%

Maupuia -8.3%

PROPERTY VALUES UNDER PRESSURE

EWZEALAND’S average propertyvalue recorded its first annualdecline inmorethanadecade, figuresfromtheOneRoofValocityHouse Value Indexshow. Thenationwide averagepropertyvalue dropped2.7%($28,000) inthe 12 monthstothe endofOctoberto$1.009 million,amidfearsthat furtherinterestratehikesin responseto inflation could prolongthedeclinewellinto2023.

Thelasttimethe country'saveragepropertyvalue sufferedanannualdeclinewasin July2011,whenitfell 0.9%,butbackthenthehousingmarketwasonthe cusp of revivalfollowingtheGFC-inducedslump.

Six regions recordedannualdeclines,upfrom fivein theyeartotheendofSeptember, withhousepricesin GreaterWellingtontakingthe biggestknock

The region'saveragepropertyvalue dropped13.1% ($142,000)inthelast12monthsto$940,000 -andtherate ofdecline doesnotappeartobeslowing either.Inthe lastthreemonthsalone,propertyvaluesinthe region fell8.1%($83,000),andaredown17%sincepeakingin March.

Alsodownyear-on-yearareAuckland(-5.5%to $1.398m); Manawatu-Whanganui(-4.5%to$633,000); Hawke'sBay(-4%to $833,000);Nelson(-2.9%to $832,000);andBayof Plenty(-0.2%to$1.002m).

Quarterlydeclines wererecordedbyevery region bar WestCoast, where theaverageproperty valueclimbed2.7%($11,000)to $414,000.

Ofthe country’s72territoriallocal authorities,15sawvaluegrowthinthe threemonths totheendofOctober. Opotiki,intheBayofPlenty, enjoyedthe biggestgrowthspurt, withitsaveragepropertyvalue up9.7% to$666,000.Also recording relativelystrong growthwereHurunui, inCanterbury(+5.7%to $700,000); Westland,in West Coast(+3.9%to $458,000);andBuller, also WestCoast(+3.5%to $385,000).

Propertyvaluesin most TAswereupyearonyear, but marginsaregettingsmaller, withjust 14 TAsrecordingdouble-digitgrowth. Thebiggestyear-on-yeardropswere inGreater Wellington, butalso coming underpressureare Palmerston North (-8.4%),Napier(-8.2%)andDunedin(-6.1%).

Nationwidesalesvolumesfellfrom93,847inthe 12months totheend of Septemberto90,687inthe12 monthstotheendofOctober.Ofthe2265suburbs where therewassalesactivityin thelast12months,just905

Fallfrommarket peak: Whatthemaptells you

ThemapshowsforNZandeachregionthe changeinthe averagepropertyvaluesince marketpeak -whenvalueswere attheirhighest. Alsogivenisthechangesincepeakforeachof themajormetros.Thedateofmarketpeakforeach locationisdifferent. WestCoast'schangeismarked0% asitsaveragepropertyisstillgrowing,and hasnotyet reached peak.Thedataisderivedfromthe OneRoofValocityHouse ValueIndex,takenonOctober20,2022.

recorded20ormore settledsales, downfrom 914inthe12monthstothe endofSeptemberand down from1014inthe12monthsto theendof March. Ofthe905suburbswith 20ormoresettledsales inthelastyear,just88 recordedquarterlyvalue growth,while445saw year-on-yeardropsintheir averagepropertyvalue.

James Wilson,headofvaluations atOneRoof'sdatapartner,Valocity, said:"Propertypricescontinuedtheir downwardtrendinOctober,dropping by4.1%,or$43,000,sinceJuly,and8.6%, or $95,500,sincetheFebruarypeak.Therateofvalue declinehasalsoincreased,from-3.7%threemonths agoto-4.1%inOctober,withtheaveragepropertyvalue nowindangerofdroppingbelowthe$1mmark."

Wilsonadded:"Thearrivalofspringhasseenan increaseinnewlistings.However,inamarketthat alreadyhasanoversupplyofpropertiesavailablefor purchase,thisincreasehassimplyexacerbatedthe issue.Asinterestratesandthecostoflivingcontinue toriseandlendersapplyhighertestratesaspartofthe mortgageapplicationprocess,borrower’spurchasing

powercontinuesto reduce.Thenumberof daystosell also roseasthe resultofmoreoptionsforbuyersonthe marketanddisappearanceoftheFOMOeffect.

"Acrossthe regions,15of16hadvaluesdeclinefrom threemonthsago,and sixare nowbelowvaluesfrom Octoberlastyear.Wellington continuestoholditsspotas the regionwiththepoorestperforminghousingmarket, whilethebest-performinglocationscontinuetobethose atthelowerendofthepricescale."

Wilsonsaidthefactthatinflation remainedhigher thanthetargetedrangewaslikelytoleadtofurtherrises intheOfficialCashRate(OCR).

"Placingadditionalpressureonpropertyisuncertainty intheglobalinvestmentmarket.Thishashampered KiwiSaverperformanceandthereforereducestheamount availableforwithdrawalbyfirst-homebuyers,"hesaid.

"Whatthismeansisthatpropertyvalueswillcontinue todeclineinto2023.

WayneShum,headof researchat Valocity,said mortgage registrationsweredown12%onthe previousquarter.

"First-homebuyers’shareofregistrations rosefrom 38%to39.3%nationwide.Thiscouldbeduetothelower prices,whichmeanslowerdeposits –somethingthathas been asignificant roadblockinthepast.Thatsaid,the numberoffirst-homebuyer registrationsdroppedby 2437overthesameperiod,"Shum said.

"Investors’ share remainedsimilartotheprevious quarterat25.4%."

Aboutthetables

TheOneRoof-Valocity House ValueIndextracks theaveragevalueofNewZealand residentialandlifestylepropertiesata suburb, territorialauthority,regionaland nationwidelevel.Theindexisdesignedto beableto estimatedollarvalues,movements, andindexation.Theindexisdesignedtobeableto use arangeofsources of property andsalesdata,ensuringthatestimatesprovidedare abletotakeintoaccount themost recentinformation. The resultsarebasedonacompositeofstatisticalmodelsandare fullystratified.Thefiguresinthetable coverthe12-monthperiodendingonOctober 31,2022,withdatafromthe OneRoof-ValocityHouse Value Index takenonOctober20, 2022.Onlysuburbswith20-plussettledsalesduringthe 12-monthperiodareshown.

GREATER AUCKLAND

NORTHLAND

$874,000$900,000$826,000 2.9%5.8%3992

FARNORTH $792,000$799,000$714,000 0.9%10.9%1312

AHIPARA

$674,000$654,000$573,0003.1%17.6%31

CABLEBAY $871,000$858,000$752,0001.5%15.8%50

COOPERSBEACH

$906,000$907,000$783,000 0.1%15.7%30

HARURU $881,000$867,000$777,0001.6%13.4%41

KAEO $823,000$844,000$706,000 2.5%16.6%38

KAIKOHE $388,000$389,000$346,000 0.3%12.1%60

KAITAIA $451,000$464,000$400,000 2.8%12.8%130

KARIKARIPENINSULA

KAWAKAWA

KERIKERI

$787,000$810,000$669,000 2.8%17.6%77

$495,000$513,000$472,000 3.5%4.9%33

$1,140,000$1,140,000$1,032,0000.0%10.5%301

MANGONUI $839,000$826,000$714,0001.6%17.5%37

OKAIHAU

OPONONI

PAIHIA

$787,000$784,000$683,0000.4%15.2%23

$560,000$563,000$498,000 0.5%12.4%27

$837,000$820,000$725,0002.1%15.4%62

RUSSELL $1,455,000$1,537,000$1,355,000 5.3%7.4%41

TAIPA $774,000$765,000$660,0001.2%17.3%20

WAIPAPA

3.8% 10.4%253

BLOCKHOUSEBAY $1,237,000$1,293,000$1,343,000 4.3% 7.9%183

EDENTERRACE $854,000$877,000$887,000 2.6% 3.7%102

ELLERSLIE $1,354,000$1,428,000$1,464,000 5.2% 7.5%153

EPSOM $2,277,000$2,419,000$2,366,000 5.9% 3.8%217

FREEMANSBAY $1,798,000$1,859,000$1,816,000 3.3% 1.0%84

GLENINNES $1,233,000$1,315,000$1,400,000 6.2% 11.9%129

GLENDOWIE $2,438,000$2,568,000$2,546,000 5.1% 4.2%113

GRAFTON $704,000$723,000$778,000 2.6% 9.5%72

GREAT BARRIERISLAND (AOTEA) $835,000$836,000$754,000 0.1%10.7%51

GREENLANE $1,963,000$2,072,000$2,069,000 5.3% 5.1%75

GREYLYNN $1,937,000$2,048,000$2,028,000 5.4% 4.5%194

HERNEBAY $3,816,000$3,880,000$3,907,000 1.6% 2.3%64

HILLSBOROUGH $1,390,000$1,470,000$1,515,000 5.4% 8.3%81

KINGSLAND $1,507,000$1,545,000$1,608,000 2.5% 6.3%60

KOHIMARAMA $2,328,000$2,410,000$2,475,000 3.4% 5.9%75

LYNFIELD $1,414,000$1,502,000$1,505,000 5.9% 6.0%45

MEADOWBANK $1,798,000$1,840,000$1,937,000 2.3% 7.2%78

MISSIONBAY $2,346,000$2,448,000$2,430,000 4.2% 3.5%83

MORNINGSIDE $1,379,000$1,453,000$1,486,000 5.1% 7.2%67

MOUNTALBERT $1,470,000$1,534,000$1,574,000 4.2% 6.6%235

MOUNTEDEN $1,924,000$2,011,000$2,018,000 4.3% 4.7%307

MOUNT ROSKILL $1,229,000$1,310,000$1,318,000 6.2% 6.8%276

MOUNTWELLINGTON $1,060,000$1,130,000$1,087,000 6.2% 2.5%344

NEWWINDSOR $1,344,000$1,411,000$1,419,000 4.7% 5.3%52

NEWMARKET $963,000$998,000$1,031,000 3.5% 6.6%31

ONETREEHILL $1,439,000$1,523,000$1,546,000 5.5% 6.9%56

ONEHUNGA $1,220,000$1,277,000$1,330,000 4.5% 8.3%290

ORAKEI $2,526,000$2,642,000$2,612,000 4.4% 3.3%91

OTAHUHU $846,000$899,000$886,000 5.9% 4.5%175

PANMURE $1,102,000$1,163,000$1,206,000 5.2% 8.6%107

PARNELL $2,211,000$2,238,000$2,240,000 1.2% 1.3%155

POINTCHEVALIER $2,038,000$2,131,000$2,209,000 4.4% 7.7%140

POINTENGLAND $1,169,000$1,243,000$1,384,000 6.0% 15.5%42

PONSONBY $2,558,000$2,645,000$2,631,000 3.3% 2.8%87

REMUERA $2,949,000$3,047,000$2,995,000 3.2% 1.5%395

ROYALOAK $1,501,000$1,615,000$1,580,000 7.1% 5.0%60

SAINTJOHNS $1,579,000$1,705,000$1,710,000 7.4% 7.7%91

SAINTMARYSBAY $3,091,000$3,212,000$3,111,000 3.8% 0.6%32

SANDRINGHAM $1,530,000$1,583,000$1,583,000 3.3% 3.3%172

ST HELIERS $2,406,000$2,606,000$2,512,000 7.7% 4.2%222

STONEFIELDS $1,675,000$1,753,000$1,726,000 4.4% 3.0%74

THREEKINGS $1,246,000$1,303,000$1,326,000 4.4% 6.0%45

WAIOTAIKIBAY

4.2% 9.7%32

9.1%40

RIVERSIDE $779,000$828,000$789,000 5.9% 1.3%20 RUAKAKA $986,000$1,051,000$937,000 6.2%5.2%89

FRANKLIN $1,174,000$1,226,000$1,119,000 4.2%4.9%1246 BOMBAY $1,778,000$1,862,000$1,681,000 4.5%5.8%22

CLARKSBEACH $1,279,000$1,358,000$1,255,000 5.8%1.9%52

GLENBROOK $1,251,000$1,367,000$1,261,000 8.5% 0.8%58

HUNUA

PAERATA

PATUMAHOE

PUKEKOHE

RAMARAMA

WAIUKU

$1,562,000$1,654,000$1,496,000 5.6%4.4%31

$1,419,000$1,509,000$1,399,000 6.0%1.4%38

$1,338,000$1,408,000$1,313,000 5.0%1.9%31

$989,000$1,044,000$995,000 5.3% 0.6%605

$1,764,000$1,871,000$1,744,000 5.7%1.1%42

$959,000$1,025,000$945,000 6.4%1.5%261

MANUREWA $893,000$923,000$945,000 3.3% 5.5%678

MANUREWAEAST $771,000$809,000$907,000 4.7% 15.0%94

MARAETAI $1,613,000$1,684,000$1,731,000 4.2% 6.8%37

MELLONSBAY $2,191,000$2,292,000$2,394,000 4.4% 8.5%47

NORTHPARK $1,472,000$1,563,000$1,631,000 5.8% 9.7%53

OTARA $832,000$892,000$860,000 6.7% 3.3%116

PAKURANGA $1,269,000$1,338,000$1,336,000 5.2% 5.0%137

PAKURANGAHEIGHTS $1,258,000$1,307,000$1,304,000 3.7% 3.5%127

PAPATOETOE $885,000$959,000$937,000 7.7% 5.5%755

RANDWICK PARK $816,000$855,000$893,000 4.6% 8.6%96

SHELLYPARK $1,628,000$1,729,000$1,784,000 5.8% 8.7%31

SOMERVILLE $1,550,000$1,657,000$1,730,000 6.5% 10.4%52

SUNNYHILLS $1,792,000$1,869,000$1,841,000 4.1% 2.7%53

THE GARDENS $1,357,000$1,443,000$1,421,000 6.0% 4.5%49

TOTARA HEIGHTS $1,084,000$1,147,000$1,165,000 5.5% 7.0%29

TOTARA PARK $2,262,000$2,446,000$2,332,000 7.5% 3.0%31

WATTLEDOWNS $1,107,000$1,189,000$1,146,000 6.9% 3.4%117

WEYMOUTH $860,000$901,000$897,000

BAYVIEW

WAIMAUKU

$1,047,000$1,130,000$1,164,000 7.3% 10.1%121

BEACHHAVEN $1,111,000$1,206,000$1,261,000 7.9% 11.9%218

BELMONT $1,667,000$1,725,000$1,720,000 3.4% 3.1%48

BIRKDALE $999,000$1,059,000$1,082,000 5.7% 7.7%175

BIRKENHEAD $1,401,000$1,462,000$1,430,000 4.2% 2.0%190

BROWNSBAY $1,291,000$1,377,000$1,370,000 6.2% 5.8%223

CAMPBELLSBAY $2,401,000$2,486,000$2,591,000 3.4% 7.3%44

CASTORBAY $1,999,000$2,075,000$2,179,000 3.7% 8.3%64

CHATSWOOD $1,561,000$1,630,000$1,733,000 4.2% 9.9%43

DEVONPORT $2,240,000$2,324,000$2,374,000 3.6% 5.6%103

FAIRVIEWHEIGHTS $1,650,000$1,732,000$1,771,000 4.7% 6.8%41

FORRESTHILL $1,461,000$1,522,000$1,605,000 4.0% 9.0%134

GLENFIELD

$1,125,000$1,175,000$1,184,000 4.3% 5.0%275

GREENHITHE $1,810,000$1,913,000$1,881,000 5.4% 3.8%126

HAURAKI $2,111,000$2,229,000$2,165,000 5.3% 2.5%80

HILLCREST $1,302,000$1,381,000$1,405,000 5.7% 7.3%147

LONGBAY $1,731,000$1,801,000$1,815,000 3.9% 4.6%93

MAIRANGIBAY $1,827,000$1,904,000$2,012,000 4.0% 9.2%91

MILFORD $1,850,000$1,974,000$1,980,000 6.3% 6.6%148

MURRAYSBAY $1,827,000$1,889,000$1,991,000 3.3% 8.2%70

NARROW NECK $2,055,000$2,163,000$2,237,000 5.0% 8.1%31

NORTHCOTE $1,352,000$1,383,000$1,363,000 2.2% 0.8%130

NORTHCOTEPOINT $1,781,000$1,837,000$1,938,000 3.0% 8.1%46

NORTHCROSS $1,360,000$1,417,000$1,458,000 4.0% 6.7%48

OTEHA $1,196,000$1,234,000$1,267,000 3.1% 5.6%78

PAREMOREMO $1,939,000$2,066,000$2,057,000 6.1% 5.7%28

PINEHILL $1,724,000$1,814,000$1,842,000 5.0% 6.4%37

ROTHESAYBAY $1,647,000$1,716,000$1,876,000 4.0% 12.2%53

SCHNAPPER ROCK $1,662,000$1,749,000$1,796,000 5.0% 7.5%54

STANLEYPOINT $2,530,000$2,665,000$2,788,000 5.1% 9.3%20

SUNNYNOOK $1,279,000$1,355,000$1,384,000 5.6% 7.6%64

TAKAPUNA $2,331,000$2,421,000$2,356,000 3.7% 1.1%157

TORBAY $1,322,000$1,370,000$1,398,000 3.5% 5.4%264

TOTARA VALE $1,086,000$1,148,000$1,164,000 5.4% 6.7%93

UNSWORTHHEIGHTS $1,210,000$1,280,000$1,316,000 5.5% 8.1%61

WAIAKE $1,659,000$1,710,000$1,809,000 3.0% 8.3%25

WINDSOR PARK $1,446,000$1,525,000$1,537,000 5.2% 5.9%25

PAPAKURA $1,118,000$1,161,000$1,092,000 3.7%2.4%1957

CONIFERGROVE $1,105,000$1,147,000$1,157,000 3.7% 4.5%86

DRURY $1,463,000$1,512,000$1,392,000 3.2%5.1%26

KARAKA $1,803,000$1,922,000$1,830,000 6.2% 1.5%238

OPAHEKE $1,161,000$1,206,000$1,170,000 3.7% 0.8%136

PAHUREHURE $1,069,000$1,129,000$1,130,000 5.3% 5.4%86

PAPAKURA $930,000$951,000$932,000 2.2% 0.2%831

REDHILL $890,000$940,000$877,000 5.3%1.5%64

ROSEHILL $988,000$1,032,000$976,000 4.3%1.2%90

TAKANINI $997,000$1,040,000$1,011,000 4.1% 1.4%390

RODNEY$1,497,000$1,559,000$1,470,000 4.0%1.8%2998

ALGIESBAY $1,426,000$1,496,000$1,501,000 4.7% 5.0%20 ARMYBAY $1,193,000$1,259,000$1,303,000 5.2% 8.4%28

COATESVILLE $3,752,000$3,737,000$3,311,0000.4%13.3%48

DAIRYFLAT $2,417,000$2,547,000$2,349,000 5.1%2.9%64

GULFHARBOUR $1,158,000$1,223,000$1,127,000 5.3%2.8%180

HATFIELDSBEACH $1,170,000$1,215,000$1,261,000 3.7% 7.2%25

HELENSVILLE $1,263,000$1,323,000$1,277,000 4.5% 1.1%119

HUAPAI $1,342,000$1,435,000$1,355,000 6.5% 1.0%62

KAUKAPAKAPA

$1,488,000$1,554,000$1,486,000 4.2%0.1%50

KUMEU $1,664,000$1,797,000$1,727,000 7.4% 3.6%169

LEIGH $1,547,000$1,635,000$1,478,000 5.4%4.7%23

MAKARAU $1,257,000$1,334,000$1,246,000 5.8%0.9%22

MANLY $1,308,000$1,388,000$1,366,000 5.8% 4.2%112

MATAKANA $2,024,000$2,058,000$1,893,000 1.7%6.9%36

MURIWAI $1,520,000$1,597,000$1,652,000 4.8% 8.0%28

OMAHA $2,683,000$2,780,000$2,675,000 3.5%0.3%32

OREWA $1,321,000$1,386,000$1,302,000 4.7%1.5%361

POINTWELLS $2,299,000$2,358,000$2,160,000 2.5%6.4%27

REDBEACH $1,301,000$1,381,000$1,345,000 5.8% 3.3%122

RIVERHEAD $1,992,000$2,063,000$1,907,000 3.4%4.5%107

SILVERDALE $1,478,000$1,536,000$1,474,000 3.8%0.3%180

SNELLSBEACH $1,145,000$1,202,000$1,177,000 4.7% 2.7%88

STANMOREBAY $1,139,000$1,252,000$1,159,000 9.0% 1.7%252

STILLWATER $1,681,000$1,739,000$1,670,000 3.3%0.7%26

$1,700,000$1,791,000$1,699,000 5.1%0.1%63

WAINUI $1,582,000$1,693,000$1,677,000 6.6% 5.7%167

WAITOKI $2,113,000$2,218,000$2,121,000 4.7% 0.4%21

WARKWORTH $1,267,000$1,314,000$1,238,000 3.6%2.3%192

WELLSFORD $859,000$921,000$878,000 6.7% 2.2%54

WAITAKERE $1,140,000$1,192,000$1,164,000 4.4% 2.1%4255

GLENEDEN $952,000$1,021,000$1,023,000 6.8% 6.9%373

GLENDENE $1,024,000$1,104,000$1,085,000 7.2% 5.6%82

GREENBAY $1,273,000$1,370,000$1,378,000 7.1% 7.6%55

HENDERSON $1,072,000$1,111,000$1,094,000 3.5% 2.0%611

HENDERSON VALLEY $1,428,000$1,508,000$1,464,000 5.3% 2.5%46

HOBSONVILLE $1,240,000$1,270,000$1,228,000 2.4%1.0%511

KELSTON $988,000$1,038,000$1,055,000 4.8% 6.4%64

LAINGHOLM $1,099,000$1,173,000$1,175,000 6.3% 6.5%45

MASSEY $1,096,000$1,113,000$1,105,000 1.5% 0.8%498

NEW LYNN $940,000$976,000$1,023,000 3.7% 8.1%317

ORATIA $1,632,000$1,726,000$1,708,000 5.4% 4.4%21

RANUI $937,000$985,000$996,000 4.9% 5.9%202

SUNNYVALE $983,000$1,028,000$1,020,000 4.4% 3.6%94

SWANSON $1,262,000$1,324,000$1,249,000 4.7%1.0%109

TE ATATUPENINSULA $1,234,000$1,324,000$1,384,000 6.8% 10.8%264

TE ATATUSOUTH $1,050,000$1,108,000$1,098,000 5.2% 4.4%248

TITIRANGI $1,284,000$1,401,000$1,377,000 8.4% 6.8%237

WAITAKERE $1,563,000$1,642,000$1,512,000 4.8%3.4%32

WESTHARBOUR $1,366,000$1,476,000$1,436,000 7.5% 4.9%151

WESTGATE $1,022,000$1,092,000$1,121,000 6.4% 8.8%63

WHENUAPAI $1,359,000$1,432,000$1,451,000 5.1% 6.3%162

5.9% 3.0%138

FAIRVIEWDOWNS $744,000$775,000$758,000 4.0% 1.8%46

FITZROY $813,000$855,000$817,000 4.9% 0.5%39

FLAGSTAFF $1,192,000$1,221,000$1,209,000 2.4% 1.4%244

FORESTLAKE $773,000$800,000$764,000 3.4%1.2%55

FRANKTON $683,000$697,000$698,000 2.0% 2.1%157

GLENVIEW $793,000$815,000$810,000 2.7% 2.1%146

GRANDVIEWHEIGHTS

$931,000$956,000$938,000 2.6% 0.7%25

HAMILTONCENTRAL $796,000$817,000$805,000 2.6% 1.1%52

HAMILTONEAST $750,000$766,000$779,000 2.1% 3.7%258

HAMILTONLAKE $934,000$977,000$1,010,000 4.4% 7.5%45

HILLCREST $819,000$833,000$840,000 1.7% 2.5%121

HUNTINGTON $1,115,000$1,150,000$1,128,000 3.0% 1.2%139

MAEROA $752,000$780,000$752,000 3.6%0.0%52

MELVILLE $677,000$700,000$690,000 3.3% 1.9%126

NAWTON $694,000$714,000$710,000 2.8% 2.3%200

PUKETE $852,000$885,000$875,000 3.7% 2.6%88

QUEENWOOD $1,071,000$1,104,000$1,008,000 3.0%6.3%63

RIVERLEA $896,000$935,000$917,000 4.2% 2.3%23

ROTOTUNA $1,038,000$1,085,000$1,054,000 4.3% 1.5%66

ROTOTUNANORTH $1,077,000$1,119,000$1,150,000 3.8% 6.3%133

SAINTANDREWS $870,000$908,000$882,000 4.2% 1.4%133

SILVERDALE $761,000$791,000$777,000 3.8% 2.1%34

WHITIORA $696,000$712,000$667,000 2.2%4.3%39

ACACIABAY $1,464,000$1,498,000$1,351,000 2.3%8.4%56 HILLTOP $917,000$977,000$908,000 6.1%1.0%56 KINLOCH $1,384,000$1,413,000$1,260,000 2.1%9.8%77 MANGAKINO $496,000$541,000$474,000 8.3%4.6%39 MOTUOAPA $790,000$825,000$793,000 4.2% 0.4%33

NUKUHAU $894,000$951,000$886,000 6.0%0.9%103

OMORI

RANGATIRAPARK

RICHMONDHEIGHTS

$796,000$839,000$789,000 5.1%0.9%23

$1,064,000$1,079,000$994,000 1.4%7.0%42

$807,000$847,000$808,000 4.7% 0.1%59

TAUHARA $613,000$630,000$603,000 2.7%1.7%35

TAUPO $765,000$800,000$746,000 4.4%2.5%203

TURANGI

TWOMILEBAY

$492,000$514,000$481,000 4.3%2.3%93

$961,000$977,000$947,000 1.6%1.5%29

WAIPAHIHI $1,115,000$1,132,000$1,079,000 1.5%3.3%38

WAIRAKEI $1,131,000$1,168,000$1,029,000 3.2%9.9%22

WHAREWAKA

$1,346,000$1,432,000$1,336,000 6.0%0.7%80

THAMES COROMANDEL$1,296,000$1,276,000$1,198,0001.6%8.2%1050

COOKSBEACH

$1,568,000$1,457,000$1,399,0007.6%12.1%24

COROMANDEL $912,000$921,000$872,000 1.0%4.6%36

MATARANGI $1,238,000$1,186,000$1,129,0004.4%9.7%75

PAUANUI $1,662,000$1,574,000$1,438,0005.6%15.6%94

TAIRUA $1,266,000$1,237,000$1,164,0002.3%8.8%66

THAMES $806,000$804,000$748,0000.2%7.8%113

WHANGAMATA $1,548,000$1,518,000$1,418,0002.0%9.2%183 WHITIANGA $1,153,000$1,161,000$1,050,000 0.7%9.8%231

WAIKATO$1,158,000$1,188,000$1,073,000 -2.5%7.9%1514 BUCKLAND $1,442,000$1,457,000$1,354,000 1.0%6.5%31 HUNTLY $581,000$584,000$560,000 0.5%3.8%126

MANGATAWHIRI $1,384,000$1,394,000$1,237,000 0.7%11.9%24 MATANGI $1,836,000$1,912,000$1,647,000 4.0%11.5%38 MEREMERE $545,000$523,000$505,0004.2%7.9%23

NGARUAWAHIA $813,000$826,000$786,000 1.6%3.4%193

POKENO $1,115,000$1,163,000$1,057,000 4.1%5.5%192

PORTWAIKATO $663,000$657,000$647,0000.9%2.5%22

PUKEKAWA $1,232,000$1,236,000$1,110,000 0.3%11.0%23 RAGLAN $1,276,000$1,286,000$1,193,000 0.8%7.0%153 TAMAHERE $2,194,000$2,219,000$1,955,000 1.1%12.2%70 TAUPIRI $1,177,000$1,207,000$1,092,000 2.5%7.8%29 TE KAUWHATA $907,000$907,000$839,0000.0%8.1%114

ROTORUA$752,000$782,000$755,000 3.8% 0.4%993 FAIRYSPRINGS $574,000$625,000$588,000 8.2% 2.4%33

FORDLANDS $393,000$421,000$386,000 6.7%1.8%20

GLENHOLME $691,000$703,000$704,000 1.7% 1.8%80

HAMURANA $1,347,000$1,379,000$1,202,000 2.3%12.1%29

HILLCREST $628,000$657,000$640,000 4.4% 1.9%26

KAWAHAPOINT $806,000$816,000$812,000 1.2% 0.7%37

KOUTU $525,000$542,000$543,000 3.1% 3.3%21

LYNMORE $957,000$980,000$936,000 2.3%2.2%60

MAMAKU $582,000$611,000$557,000 4.7%4.5%23

MANGAKAKAHI $541,000$571,000$554,000 5.3% 2.3%54

NGONGOTAHA $734,000$743,000$721,000 1.2%1.8%67

OWHATA $691,000$712,000$687,000 2.9%0.6%104

POMARE $765,000$785,000$757,000 2.5%1.1%20

PUKEHANGI $643,000$673,000$659,000 4.5% 2.4%67

SPRINGFIELD $834,000$843,000$836,000 1.1% 0.2%50

SUNNYBROOK $739,000$760,000$739,000 2.8%0.0%33

VICTORIA $556,000$571,000$560,000 2.6% 0.7%33

WESTERNHEIGHTS $538,000$563,000$545,000 4.4% 1.3%50

TAURANGA$1,126,000$1,184,000$1,163,000 4.9% 3.2%3019

BELLEVUE $822,000$869,000$855,000 5.4% 3.9%66

BETHLEHEM $1,198,000$1,250,000$1,187,000 4.2%0.9%159

BROOKFIELD $838,000$886,000$858,000 5.4% 2.3%113

GATE PA $697,000$743,000$722,000 6.2% 3.5%128

GREERTON $759,000$802,000$770,000 5.4% 1.4%67

HAIRINI $819,000$861,000$840,000 4.9% 2.5%45

JUDEA $761,000$809,000$809,000 5.9% 5.9%69

MATUA $1,256,000$1,296,000$1,288,000 3.1% 2.5%89

MAUNGATAPU $945,000$1,000,000$985,000 5.5% 4.1%49

MOUNTMAUNGANUI $1,538,000$1,609,000$1,562,000 4.4% 1.5%445

OHAUITI $1,157,000$1,210,000$1,158,000 4.4% 0.1%122

OTUMOETAI $1,107,000$1,152,000$1,158,000 3.9% 4.4%149

PAPAMOA $969,000$1,052,000$990,000 7.9% 2.1%143

PAPAMOABEACH $1,163,000$1,238,000$1,162,000 6.1%0.1%621

PARKVALE $692,000$719,000$712,000 3.8% 2.8%59

POIKE $720,000$744,000$735,000 3.2% 2.0%24

PYESPA $1,158,000$1,230,000$1,191,000 5.9% 2.8%292 TAURANGA $1,056,000$1,121,000$1,074,000 5.8% 1.7%51 TAURANGASOUTH $962,000$1,038,000$938,000 7.3%2.6%110

$940,000$994,000$945,000 5.4% 0.5%39

CLIVE

ESKDALE $1,354,000$1,423,000$1,352,000 4.8%0.1%23

FLAXMERE $493,000$511,000$504,000 3.5% 2.2%108

FRIMLEY $909,000$978,000$928,000 7.1% 2.0%71

HASTINGS $633,000$670,000$668,000 5.5% 5.2%63

HAVELOCKNORTH $1,263,000$1,311,000$1,291,000 3.7% 2.2%257 MAHORA $730,000$789,000$787,000 7.5% 7.2%67

MAYFAIR $631,000$676,000$674,000 6.7% 6.4%77

PARKVALE $707,000$741,000$750,000 4.6% 5.7%81

RAUREKA $642,000$706,000$701,000 9.1% 8.4%63

SAINTLEONARDS $639,000$681,000$703,000 6.2% 9.1%39

TOKOMARU

SOUTH TARANAKI

$727,000$764,000$736,000 4.8% 1.2%20

WAITAREREBEACH $699,000$734,000$730,000 4.8% 4.2%40

MANAWATU

FEILDING

HALCOMBE

HIMATANGIBEACH

$713,000$734,000$730,000 2.9% 2.3%609

$686,000$714,000$707,000 3.9% 3.0%406

$828,000$851,000$784,000 2.7%5.6%37

$553,000$563,000$571,000 1.8% 3.2%20

RONGOTEA $719,000$749,000$725,000 4.0% 0.8%41

PALMERSTONNORTH$713,000$765,000$778,000 6.8% 8.4%1513

AOKAUTERE

ASHHURST

AWAPUNI

BUNNYTHORPE

CLOVERLEA

FITZHERBERT

HIGHBURY

HOKOWHITU

KELVINGROVE

MILSON

PALMERSTONNORTH

ROSLYN

$1,162,000$1,298,000$1,170,000 10.5% 0.7%26

$750,000$798,000$781,000 6.0% 4.0%72

$660,000$711,000$711,000 7.2% 7.2%148

$943,000$1,009,000$927,000 6.5%1.7%32

$584,000$632,000$664,000 7.6% 12.0%31

$969,000$1,088,000$1,070,000 10.9% 9.4%91

$567,000$602,000$605,000 5.8% 6.3%96

$851,000$907,000$907,000 6.2% 6.2%181

$842,000$899,000$892,000 6.3% 5.6%161

$671,000$705,000$716,000 4.8% 6.3%131

$661,000$724,000$712,000 8.7% 7.2%116

$509,000$513,000$458,000 0.8%11.1%563

6.0% 7.1%62

PAEKAKARIKI $1,026,000$1,080,000$1,118,000 5.0% 8.2%25

PARAPARAUMU $871,000$909,000$933,000 4.2% 6.6%152

PARAPARAUMUBEACH $940,000$1,009,000$1,006,000 6.8% 6.6%174

RAUMATIBEACH $945,000$1,012,000$1,007,000 6.6% 6.2%72

RAUMATI SOUTH $939,000$997,000$1,043,000 5.8% 10.0%75

WAIKANAE $992,000$1,060,000$1,052,000 6.4% 5.7%193

WAIKANAEBEACH $1,018,000$1,072,000$1,137,000 5.0% 10.5%78

LOWERHUTT$835,000$902,000$1,002,000 7.4% 16.7%1466

ALICETOWN $853,000$923,000$1,045,000 7.6% 18.4%23

AVALON $763,000$851,000$912,000 10.3% 16.3%63

BELMONT $991,000$1,077,000$1,127,000 8.0% 12.1%51

BOULCOTT $932,000$1,012,000$1,155,000 7.9% 19.3%39

EASTBOURNE $1,226,000$1,277,000$1,361,000 4.0% 9.9%44

EPUNI $859,000$921,000$1,025,000 6.7% 16.2%35

FAIRFIELD $809,000$888,000$997,000 8.9% 18.9%37

HUTTCENTRAL $1,148,000$1,252,000$1,325,000 8.3% 13.4%47

KELSON $866,000$944,000$1,022,000 8.3% 15.3%45

MAUNGARAKI $910,000$1,011,000$1,092,000 10.0% 16.7%40

NAENAE $666,000$737,000$800,000 9.6% 16.8%94

NORMANDALE $957,000$1,030,000$1,105,000 7.1% 13.4%25

PETONE $930,000$994,000$1,083,000 6.4% 14.1%104

STOKES VALLEY $684,000$751,000$795,000 8.9% 14.0%149

TAITA $647,000$726,000$776,000 10.9% 16.6%89

WAINUIOMATA $678,000$737,000$797,000 8.0% 14.9%303

WAIWHETU $783,000$879,000$975,000 10.9% 19.7%67

WATERLOO $889,000$1,010,000$1,095,000 12.0% 18.8%63

$675,000$737,000$718,000 8.4% 6.0%100

SOUTH WAIRARAPA$947,000$1,030,000$996,000 8.1% 4.9%316

FEATHERSTON $646,000$717,000$699,000 9.9% 7.6%66

GREYTOWN $1,032,000$1,119,000$1,065,000 7.8% 3.1%98

MARTINBOROUGH $1,077,000$1,166,000$1,114,000 7.6% 3.3%66

UPPERHUTT$829,000$885,000$988,000 6.3% 16.1%692

BIRCHVILLE $749,000$810,000$891,000 7.5% 15.9%40

BROWNOWL $805,000$871,000$993,000 7.6% 18.9%30

CLOUSTONPARK $703,000$768,000$867,000 8.5% 18.9%26

EBDENTOWN $715,000$779,000$872,000 8.2% 18.0%50

ELDERSLEA $767,000$836,000$924,000 8.3% 17.0%32

PINEHAVEN $807,000$871,000$952,000 7.3% 15.2%30

RIVERSTONETERRACES

SILVERSTREAM

$1,102,000$1,170,000$1,256,000 5.8% 12.3%28

$942,000$991,000$1,091,000 4.9% 13.7%59

TIMBERLEA $819,000$859,000$978,000 4.7% 16.3%32

TOTARA PARK $709,000$765,000$863,000 7.3% 17.8%35

TRENTHAM $727,000$807,000$849,000 9.9% 14.4%137

WALLACEVILLE $789,000$853,000$941,000 7.5% 16.2%91

WELLINGTON$1,070,000$1,180,000$1,244,000 9.3% 14.0%2727

$1,017,000$1,150,000$1,233,000 11.6% 17.5%32

AROVALLEY

BERHAMPORE $900,000$993,000$1,092,000 9.4% 17.6%69

BROADMEADOWS $936,000$1,062,000$1,105,000 11.9% 15.3%20

BROOKLYN $1,134,000$1,269,000$1,292,000 10.6% 12.2%84

CHURTONPARK $1,128,000$1,248,000$1,309,000 9.6% 13.8%104

CROFTONDOWNS $1,089,000$1,226,000$1,256,000 11.2% 13.3%26

GRENADAVILLAGE $1,065,000$1,214,000$1,236,000 12.3% 13.8%38

HATAITAI $1,246,000$1,355,000$1,422,000 8.0% 12.4%81

ISLANDBAY $1,223,000$1,344,000$1,386,000 9.0% 11.8%93

JOHNSONVILLE $909,000$980,000$1,025,000 7.2% 11.3%148

KARORI $1,203,000$1,316,000$1,367,000 8.6% 12.0%205

KELBURN $1,590,000$1,708,000$1,776,000 6.9% 10.5%43

KHANDALLAH $1,385,000$1,575,000$1,575,000 12.1% 12.1%126

KILBIRNIE $954,000$1,053,000$1,112,000 9.4% 14.2%42

LYALLBAY $1,030,000$1,163,000$1,220,000 11.4% 15.6%46

MAUPUIA $1,001,000$1,126,000$1,092,000 11.1% 8.3%25

MELROSE $1,086,000$1,229,000$1,328,000 11.6% 18.2%28

MIRAMAR $1,109,000$1,222,000$1,239,000 9.2% 10.5%114

MOUNTCOOK $829,000$920,000$987,000 9.9% 16.0%54

MOUNTVICTORIA $1,294,000$1,402,000$1,500,000 7.7% 13.7%63

NEWLANDS $875,000$1,005,000$1,037,000 12.9% 15.6%100

NEWTOWN $1,041,000$1,122,000$1,187,000 7.2% 12.3%94

NGAIO $1,152,000$1,281,000$1,307,000 10.1% 11.9%74

NORTHLAND $1,170,000$1,283,000$1,361,000 8.8% 14.0%56

PAPARANGI $889,000$1,006,000$1,040,000 11.6% 14.5%35

ROSENEATH $1,593,000$1,732,000$1,936,000 8.0% 17.7%22

SEATOUN $1,848,000$2,077,000$2,009,000 11.0% 8.0%36

STRATHMORE PARK $1,111,000$1,250,000$1,226,000 11.1% 9.4%38

TAWA $931,000$1,020,000$1,027,000 8.7% 9.3%185

TEARO $767,000$848,000$830,000 9.6% 7.6%223

THORNDON $1,044,000$1,151,000$1,199,000 9.3% 12.9%78

WADESTOWN $1,339,000$1,462,000$1,580,000 8.4% 15.3%48

WELLINGTONCENTRAL $576,000$642,000$634,000 10.3% 9.1%59

WILTON $1,022,000$1,143,000$1,187,000 10.6% 13.9%30

WOODRIDGE $985,000$1,101,000$1,151,000 10.5% 14.4%26

MARLBOROUGH

$783,000$799,000$757,000 2.0%3.4%1094

BLENHEIM $627,000$641,000$629,000 2.2% 0.3%176

BURLEIGH $1,039,000$1,069,000$981,000 2.8%5.9%21

HAVELOCK $708,000$719,000$631,000 1.5%12.2%24

MAYFIELD $590,000$608,000$601,000 3.0% 1.8%35

PICTON $669,000$683,000$635,000 2.0%5.4%85

REDWOODTOWN $623,000$635,000$622,000 1.9%0.2%135

RENWICK $786,000$798,000$762,000 1.5%3.1%41

RIVERSDALE $568,000$585,000$584,000 2.9% 2.7%26

SPRINGLANDS $851,000$873,000$820,000 2.5%3.8%130

WAIKAWA $954,000$960,000$900,000 0.6%6.0%35

WITHERLEA $784,000$809,000$761,000 3.1%3.0%137

NELSON $832,000$867,000$857,000 4.0% 2.9%953

ATAWHAI $954,000$987,000$973,000 3.3% 2.0%57

BISHOPDALE $781,000$802,000$775,000 2.6%0.8%23

ENNERGLYNN $904,000$963,000$906,000 6.1% 0.2%31

MARYBANK $953,000$1,000,000$939,000 4.7%1.5%24

MONACO $709,000$737,000$742,000 3.8% 4.4%25

NELSON $1,137,000$1,205,000$1,162,000 5.6% 2.2%32

NELSON SOUTH $793,000$825,000$805,000 3.9% 1.5%69

STOKE $772,000$813,000$775,000 5.0% 0.4%322

TAHUNANUI $718,000$764,000$703,000 6.0%2.1%79

THEBROOK $734,000$768,000$740,000 4.4% 0.8%33

THE WOOD $817,000$853,000$853,000 4.2% 4.2%59

TOITOI $563,000$583,000$598,000 3.4% 5.9%42

WASHINGTONVALLEY $638,000$659,000$676,000 3.2% 5.6%44

TASMAN

$982,000$1,011,000$959,000 -2.9%2.4%1193

APPLEBY $1,207,000$1,240,000$1,251,000 2.7% 3.5%109

BRIGHTWATER $990,000$1,037,000$963,000 4.5%2.8%62

HOPE $1,378,000$1,408,000$1,244,000 2.1%10.8%23

KAITERITERI $1,469,000$1,496,000$1,367,000 1.8%7.5%25

MAPUA $1,162,000$1,206,000$1,083,000 3.6%7.3%44

MOTUEKA $778,000$814,000$775,000 4.4%0.4%135

REDWOOD VALLEY $1,636,000$1,689,000$1,514,000 3.1%8.1%27

RICHMOND $903,000$927,000$882,000 2.6%2.4%422

RUBYBAY $1,544,000$1,590,000$1,459,000 2.9%5.8%25

TAKAKA $701,000$719,000$694,000 2.5%1.0%32

UPPERMOUTERE $1,339,000$1,366,000$1,256,000 2.0%6.6%29

$940,000$990,000$911,000 5.1%3.2%66

AKAROA $964,000$959,000$918,0000.5%5.0%36 ARANUI $446,000$469,000$429,000 4.9%4.0%114 AVONDALE $537,000$545,000$491,000 1.5%9.4%75 AVONHEAD $825,000$840,000$757,000 1.8%9.0%167

AVONSIDE $533,000$545,000$497,000 2.2%7.2%28

BECKENHAM $818,000$846,000$786,000 3.3%4.1%28

BELFAST $688,000$700,000$638,000 1.7%7.8%80

BISHOPDALE $665,000$696,000$644,000 4.5%3.3%163

BROMLEY $501,000$529,000$476,000 5.3%5.3%53

BROOMFIELD $705,000$715,000$664,000 1.4%6.2%67

BRYNDWR $785,000$803,000$746,000 2.2%5.2%107

BURNSIDE $894,000$902,000$849,000 0.9%5.3%179

BURWOOD $686,000$694,000$613,000 1.2%11.9%177

CASEBROOK $834,000$846,000$758,000 1.4%10.0%90

CASHMERE $1,106,000$1,135,000$1,034,000 2.6%7.0%138

CHRISTCHURCHCENTRAL

$695,000$719,000$645,000 3.3%7.8%327

DALLINGTON $573,000$570,000$546,0000.5%4.9%37

DIAMONDHARBOUR $814,000$864,000$735,000 5.8%10.7%30

EDGEWARE $534,000$558,000$493,000 4.3%8.3%119

FENDALTON

HALSWELL

$1,679,000$1,829,000$1,723,000 8.2% 2.6%87

$864,000$903,000$814,000 4.3%6.1%403

HAREWOOD $1,091,000$1,119,000$993,000 2.5%9.9%35

HEATHCOTE VALLEY $807,000$809,000$741,000 0.2%8.9%35

HEIHEI $601,000$614,000$562,000 2.1%6.9%87

HILLMORTON $678,000$700,000$634,000 3.1%6.9%60

HILLSBOROUGH $791,000$794,000$737,000 0.4%7.3%55

HOONHAY $656,000$700,000$624,000 6.3%5.1%159

HORNBY $593,000$616,000$550,000 3.7%7.8%137

HUNTSBURY $1,101,000$1,126,000$1,039,000 2.2%6.0%59

ILAM $946,000$978,000$898,000 3.3%5.3%168

ISLINGTON $571,000$582,000$526,000 1.9%8.6%43

LINWOOD $485,000$498,000$460,000 2.6%5.4%241 LYTTELTON $757,000$769,000$702,000 1.6%7.8%43 MAIREHAU $636,000$645,000$602,000 1.4%5.6%183 MARSHLAND $1,076,000$1,120,000$962,000 3.9%11.9%100 MERIVALE $1,484,000$1,549,000$1,473,000 4.2%0.7%127 MOUNTPLEASANT

CHRISTCHURCH'S AVERAGEPROPERTY VALUEISUP4.1%ON LASTYEAR.PHOTO /PETERMEECHAM

SPREYDON $627,000$663,000$612,000 5.4%2.5%196

ST ALBANS $861,000$874,000$829,000 1.5%3.9%395

STROWAN $1,173,000$1,271,000$1,126,000 7.7%4.2%71

SUMNER $1,103,000$1,149,000$1,069,000 4.0%3.2%48

SYDENHAM $554,000$578,000$531,000 4.2%4.3%179

TEMPLETON $806,000$864,000$730,000 6.7%10.4%49

UPPERRICCARTON $690,000$729,000$641,000 5.3%7.6%96

WAIMAIRIBEACH $942,000$952,000$885,000 1.1%6.4%26

WAINONI $494,000$493,000$462,0000.2%6.9%56

WALTHAM $498,000$510,000$460,000 2.4%8.3%106

WESTMORLAND $1,139,000$1,166,000$1,024,000 2.3%11.2%37

WIGRAM $876,000$903,000$805,000 3.0%8.8%147

WOOLSTON $546,000$551,000$492,000 0.9%11.0%271

YALDHURST $1,056,000$1,074,000$951,000 1.7%11.0%44

GLENITI

$823,000$806,000$743,0002.1%10.8%72

GLENWOOD $549,000$546,000$509,0000.5%7.9%45

HIGHFIELD $607,000$606,000$550,0000.2%10.4%80

KENSINGTON $441,000$457,000$423,000 3.5%4.3%27

MAORIHILL $567,000$574,000$551,000 1.2%2.9%27

MARCHWIEL

PARKSIDE

PLEASANTPOINT

SEAVIEW

TEMUKA

$514,000$522,000$485,000 1.5%6.0%75

$440,000$446,000$425,000 1.3%3.5%71

$580,000$581,000$527,000 0.2%10.1%36

$457,000$469,000$443,000 2.6%3.2%47

$484,000$496,000$462,000 2.4%4.8%111

WAIMATAITAI $491,000$507,000$472,000 3.2%4.0%44

WATLINGTON $448,000$462,000$444,000 3.0%0.9%28

WESTEND $487,000$488,000$452,000 0.2%7.7%65

WAIMAKARIRI $856,000$837,000$762,0002.3%12.3%1523 ASHLEY $1,011,000$985,000$857,0002.6%18.0%20 BURNTHILL $956,000$921,000$819,0003.8%16.7%23 EYREWELL $1,052,000$1,045,000$895,0000.7%17.5%24

FERNSIDE $1,304,000$1,265,000$1,122,0003.1%16.2%30

KAIAPOI $699,000$685,000$633,0002.0%10.4%299

LOBURN $1,141,000$1,124,000$959,0001.5%19.0%47

OHOKA

KINMONT PARK $760,000$815,000$829,000 6.7% 8.3%24

MAORIHILL $1,073,000$1,132,000$1,082,000 5.2% 0.8%50

MARYHILL $596,000$638,000$670,000 6.6% 11.0%20

MORNINGTON $575,000$619,000$650,000 7.1% 11.5%59

MOSGIEL $734,000$771,000$768,000 4.8% 4.4%312

MUSSELBURGH $652,000$696,000$700,000 6.3% 6.9%33

NORTHDUNEDIN $756,000$798,000$804,000 5.3% 6.0%48

NORTH EAST VALLEY $552,000$585,000$600,000 5.6% 8.0%71

PORTCHALMERS $555,000$567,000$594,000 2.1% 6.6%22

RAVENSBOURNE $548,000$566,000$575,000 3.2% 4.7%20

ROSLYN $904,000$940,000$938,000 3.8% 3.6%38

SAINTCLAIR $915,000$968,000$933,000 5.5% 1.9%49

SAINTKILDA $512,000$538,000$553,000 4.8% 7.4%119

SAWYERSBAY $659,000$724,000$673,000 9.0% 2.1%32

SHIELHILL $776,000$865,000$850,000 10.3% 8.7%22

SOUTHDUNEDIN $412,000$438,000$455,000 5.9% 9.5%96

TAINUI

WAIKOUAITI

$612,000$650,000$669,000 5.8% 8.5%23

$506,000$539,000$530,000 6.1% 4.5%36

WAKARI $610,000$643,000$667,000 5.1% 8.5%38

WAVERLEY $780,000$856,000$854,000 8.9% 8.7%36

QUEENSTOWN LAKES$1,884,000$1,883,000$1,651,0000.1%14.1%1287

ALBERTTOWN $1,537,000$1,507,000$1,303,0002.0%18.0%72

ARROWTOWN $2,396,000$2,427,000$2,025,000 1.3%18.3%86

ARTHURSPOINT $1,580,000$1,595,000$1,415,000 0.9%11.7%30

FERNHILL $1,202,000$1,207,000$1,169,000 0.4%2.8%48

FRANKTON $1,130,000$1,129,000$1,084,0000.1%4.2%82

GLENORCHY $1,446,000$1,423,000$1,122,0001.6%28.9%21

JACKS POINT $1,909,000$1,909,000$1,582,0000.0%20.7%134

KELVINHEIGHTS

$2,556,000$2,593,000$2,257,000 1.4%13.2%22

KINGSTON $802,000$793,000$697,0001.1%15.1%23

LAKEHAWEA $1,261,000$1,212,000$1,019,0004.0%23.7%47

LAKEHAYES $2,424,000$2,435,000$1,952,000 0.5%24.2%57

LOWERSHOTOVER $1,620,000$1,627,000$1,403,000 0.4%15.5%78

QUEENSTOWN $1,599,000$1,587,000$1,484,0000.8%7.7%139

WANAKA $1,997,000$1,984,000$1,728,0000.7%15.6%341

WAITAKI

$551,000$570,000$514,000 3.3%7.2%561

3.6%3.2%61

$408,000$419,000$396,000 2.6%3.0%52

KINGSWELL $398,000$405,000$387,000 1.7%2.8%60

NEWFIELD $438,000$445,000$433,000 1.6%1.2%55

OTATARA $759,000$753,000$708,0000.8%7.2%80 RICHMOND $487,000$501,000$478,000 2.8%1.9%50

ROCKDALE $431,000$439,000$425,000 1.8%1.4%20 ROSEDALE $714,000$728,000$670,000 1.9%6.6%28 SEAWARDBUSH $933,000$953,000$869,000 2.1%7.4%22 STRATHERN $366,000$380,000$367,000 3.7% 0.3%77 WAIKIWI $618,000$622,000$590,000 0.6%4.7%80 WAVERLEY $564,000$572,000$545,000 1.4%3.5%40

Onething’scertain, we’ll soon be complaining about rising houseprices again

What cananiconicAucklandradioadteach usaboutthepropertymarket?

Duringthe25yearsthat Ilivedin Aucklandbeforemovingto Hawke’sBay, there werea fewthings thatregularlyprovidedcomfort tome andwhichweresofamiliar as to definethe city. Theseincludedsomeoftheobviousicons– theSky Tower, theharbourbridge, andthe majesty of Rangitoto -buttherewerealsosomelessobvious,butequally reassuringthings, which willalwaysbe“Auckland” inmy memory.Theseincludethepicture frame at Shakespear RegionalPark,thestunningvistafrom almostanyvantagepointalong TamakiDrive,andthe MagnessBenrowradiocommercials.

ForthoseofyououtsideAuckland, Magness Benrowis aniconicAucklandappliancestore,which,foryears, has runa seriesofquirkyradioads featuringtheownerand one of histeam(or,atleast,they didwhen Iwas there).

Theadchangedeveryweekandalwaysfeatured some entertainingstoryorsituationasa backdroptowhatever the“dealoftheweek” was. Itwasinvariablyfunnyand engaging– andthe point,ofcourse,wastocontinueto find newwaysto repackage aconsistentandfamiliar messageofinnovation,concernforthelittleguyand pricecompetitiveness.

Inthisrespect,theMagnessBenrowadshavemuchin commonwiththeroleofthemoreresponsibleproperty commentatorsamongstus.Inthefaceofanavalanche

ofpropheciesofdoomandgloomfrom varioussources,eachtryingtooutdothe otherintheseverityoftheirpredictions,ther fewofuswhohavebeenaroundfora havingseenseveralcyclescomeandgo,aren’tpanicked abouttheprospectsforthemarketinthemediumterm.

Forus,aswithMagnessBenrow,it’smostlyabout repeatingthesamemessageindifferentways–butalways reinforcingthesamebasicpoints.Sadly,it’sadifficult messageto“reinvent”becausethereareonlysomany waystotellpeoplethatthemarketispredictable;thatit isn’tgoingtocrash;thatwe’vebeenherebefore;thatthis difficultperiodwillpass;andthatwe’lleventuallybe complainingaboutrisinghousepricesagain.

Butit alsohappenstobetrue.Weknowwhatcaused thedownturn (highinflation,which requiredextreme Reserve Bank intervention,anddraconianchanges tolendinglaws, whichmadeitalmostimpossible to borrowmoneyfor awhile)– andwe knowthat oneof these(thelendingobstacle)hasbeen partially resolved andthat lendingisgrowingagain.

We alsoknowthattheReserve Bank willeventually gettheinflation bogeymanback undercontrol –wejust don’tknowwhen –andit’sthisthat’satthe heartof our continuingnervousness.Once theReserveBankis confidentthatithastamedinflation,we’llsee interest ratesbegintostabiliseand,depending on theeconomic outlook,even startingtoedge downagain.Once this

willquicklystartto see marketagain.

ilemostofthecountry ealimpactfromthe“correction”and most propertiesarestillworthsubstantiallymorethan they weretwoyearsago, Iknowthatsomepeopleare doingittoughandworriedabouttheimpactofthose interestratesandtheirabilitytopaythe mortgage. For you,the smartapproachistotake chargeofthethings thatyoucancontrol. Theseincludefixingyourmortgage for aperiodthatwill giveyoucertaintywithoutpaying higherratesforlongerthanyouneedto.Thebest advice onthis seems to betofixforeither ayearor18months. Otherstrategiesincludetakingahardlook atyour weeklybudgettoseewhetherthereare thingsthatyou candowithout fornow,talkingto yourbanktosee if there areoptionsforrelieving some of thepressure,and consideringwaystoincreaseyour householdincome overthistime.

I’mnotsuggestingthatanyofthesethingsareeasy todo,and Icertainlydon’twanttotrivialisethe reality ofthestressthatyoumaybe underbutthe medium tolong-termoutlookforyourpropertyiswhatit hasalwaysbeen– itwillalmost certainlybeworth substantiallymorethanitisrightnow.

•AshleyChurchisapropertycommentatorfor OneRoof.co.nzandarealestatebusinessowner. Emailhimatashley@nzemail.com