The Science Behind Fashion Forecasting

Before the dawn of social media trends emerged through a trickle-down system. Runway shows and magazines dictated yearly trends and retailers followed suit, manufacturing ready-to-wear outfits. Recently, however, the influence of sharing, tweeting, and double-tapping has changed the way that trend forecasting agencies can predict the next craze. By observing the news, culture, and activity on various social media platforms, forecasters can extrapolate which trends will manifest–up to two years in advance.

One of the biggest trend forecasting companies is WGSN—World’s Global Style Network—which consults for brands such as Zara, H&M, Nike, and Topshop. WGSN identifies as the “World’s Trend Authority: what’s next, so you can make smarter decisions today”. Their global trend forecasters and data scientists “ decode the future to provide the authoritative view on tomorrow.” With experts in every major continent, they build locally sourced and globally relevant content, including trend intelligence, retail analytics, consumer insights and consultancy services. In short, WGSM predicts which colors, fabrics, and styles are soon to be “in.” They reach these conclusions through qualitative and quantitative data analysis and careful observation of media trends.

Take color, for instance. WGSM forecasts color palettes by using retail analytics to see which colors currently sell well as well as tracking what social media influencers are wearing. 2020’s predicted color? Neo-mint. The company’s color director, Jane Monnington Boddy, claims that neo-mint “aligns futuristic development with nature.” As technology and artificial intelligence become increasingly present in our lives, WGSM believes neo-mint encapsulates themes of innovation and advancement, combined with a yearn for a return to nature.

WGSM sources cite a recent interest in the cyberpunk genre, a popular ‘70s sci-fi vibe characterized by fear of artificial intelligence (think: Blade Runner, Ex-Machina).

Take Gucci’s FW18 show: set in a mock operating room with bright white ceiling tiles and green, scrubs-colored walls, models walked around operating tables while viewers sat in waiting-room style chairs. Gucci said the concept “reflects the work of a designer—the act of… splicing and reconstructing materials and fabrics to create a new personality.” The setting also points to the “biopunk” genre (like cyberpunk, but reflecting the implications of biotechnology). This is just one example of how forecasters like WGSM have combined data analytics with knowledge of our society; they synthesize information into predictions.

The applications of fashion forecasting reach far, but they also affect short-term operations for retailers like Shein or H&M, which specialize in mass-producing whatever is currently relevant. For instance, WGSM offers ready-made design templates which are updated constantly to reflect trends. Designers use these templates as a base and pick colors and fabrics predicted to sell successfully. As a result, stores often sell similar items, all of which lack the integrity of original work. Even WGSM founder Marc Worth criticizes the forecasting system. “Instead of looking for inspiration,” he observes, “brands are relying on templates...there’s no competitive edge.”

Do brands design clothes that add something substantial to existing sartorial paradigms? Or do brands design clothes purely to sell well in the upcoming season? Designers are increasingly forced to face the dilemma of maintaining their own aesthetics or using forecasted trends to bring in revenue. Regardless, fashion forecasting remains an extremely interesting new frontier. By examining the world around us—from technology to socio-economics to global conflicts to social media influencers—trend forecasters make meaningful predictions that, more often than not, lead retailers right to our shopping bags.

Writing SASHA BASH

Illustration LILIA JIMENEZ

Editing JENNA SCHNITZLER