En nuestro último análisis de 2012 señalábamos como más interesante Zhou Chunya, y de hecho en este inicio de 2013 ha salido mucha obra y prácticamente toda vendida. Los precios de los grandes nombres han retornado a la época pre-crisis, también fruto de una oferta muy pequeña. Y entre los medianos y jóvenes los precios fluctúan demasiado. Cada vez se abren más casas de subastas en China pero mucho más cerradas y habitualmente con precios estimados más altos. Por nuestra parte co-organizamos en el ARTS Santa Mònica de Barcelona la exposición de arte contemporáneo chino más importante fuera de China.
Junio 2013
**** In our last review of 2012 pointed out as more interesting Zhou Chunya, and indeed at the start of 2013 has left a lot of work and almost all sold. The prices of the big names have returned to pre-crisis times, also as result of a very small supply. And among medium and young prices fluctuate too much. More and more open auction houses in China but difficult to reach and usually higher estimation prices. For our part we co-organized in Barcelona ARTS Santa Mònica the most important contemporary Chinese art exhibition outside China.
June 2013
NOTICIAS SOBRE ARTANTIDE.ES Un año que continúa siendo difícil en España y en Europa, mientras en la otra parte del atlántico la recuperación se afianza. La austeridad europea nos lleva a aumentos de IVA, reducción de los consumos en general y culturales en concreto y a un crecimiento 0. Sin duda el arte contemporáneo chino es la apuesta de futuro, un país que aun disminuyendo el ritmo de crecimiento lo hace al 7,7% en el 1er trimestre y una previsión del 8,2% para todo el año; un mercado de arte chino que ha recuperado los precios de 2007 y 2008 para los grandes nombres; pero donde es necesario disponer de especialistas que te puedan asesorar correctamente pues hablamos de millares de artistas en ese mercado y unas relaciones cuanto menos menos claras que en occidente. Por nuestra parte, del 2 de julio al 28 de setiembre del 2013, nos verá organizadores en Barcelona de la muestra de arte contemporáneo chino más importante que se hará en Europa, donde presentaremos una selección de artista jóvenes junto a los artistas más importantes en colaboración con el MOCA de Chengdu y el ARTS Santa Mònica.
NEWS ABOUT ARTANTIDE.ES The year remains difficult in Spain and Europe, while on the other side of the Atlantic the recovery takes hold. European austerity leads to tax increases, reducing consumption in general and specifically cultural and 0 growth. No doubt the Chinese contemporary art is the commitment to the future, a country that even reducing the growth rate to 7.7% does in the 1st quarter and a forecast of 8.2% for the year, a Chinese art market having regained the 2007 and 2008 prices for the big names, but where it is necessary to have specialists who can advise you properly as we talk about thousands of artists and with relationships less clear than in the West. For our part, from 2 July to 28 September 2013, you will see us in Barcelona organizers of the Chinese contemporary art exhibition that will be the most important in Europe, where we will present a selection of young artist with the most important artists in collaboration with MOCA Chengdu and ARTS Santa Monica.
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INDICE ARTANTIDE.ES ® ARTE CONTEMPORANEO CHINO 1S 2013* Comienza 2013 consolidando las tendencias ya observadas en 2012 con la recuperación de precios ante-crisis para los grandes artistas. Aunque también es verdad que el número de obras de arte en el mercado ha disminuido considerablemente y las estimaciones de precios se han situado siempre en las franjas más elevadas, sobretodo en China, lo que seguramente ha llevado a un número importante de invendidos. Las tendencias más importantes las podemos resumir en: - El mercado en la China continental continúa siendo dominado por el arte moderno y tradicional chino en tinta. - Las casas de subastas occidentales en Hong Kong están promoviendo el arte contemporáneo en tinta, vista la gran demanda de esta técnica en China. - Los artistas contemporáneos reconocidos han superado los precios ante-crisis de 2008. Con un gran apetito por los trabajos históricos de estos artistas. Quién disponga de una importante suma para invertir y diversificar, alrededor de 500.000 usd, le recomendamos invertir en los grandes nombres sin duda como alternativa a las inversiones en bolsa. *Ver nuestro índice. - Claramente el mercado se ha dividido en dos grupos: El de los grandes artistas que iniciaron el arte contemporáneo en China con precios estables o subiendo y pocas obras no vendidas si los precios son “justos” como un cheque en blanco y alternativa a cualquier otra inversión. Y el mercado de los jóvenes donde entrar significa hacerlo solo a buenos precios para poder gozar de la obra y mantenerla durante un tiempo. - Solo los grandes nombres son una garantía de liquidez, pues las grandes casas de subasta solo aceptan grandes nombres en estos momentos de mercado estrecho para asegurarse un éxito de ventas.
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- Desde las grandes compras por parte de europeos y americanos antes del 2008, se ha pasado a un mercado prácticamente dominado por el público chino. De ahí que obras más “clásicas” encuentren mejor comprador que obras más críticas o contemporáneas. - Dos nombres han destacado entre todos: Zhou Chunya con un gran número de obras en el mercado y todas vendidas y Zeng Fanzhi pero con sus series de “líneas” dirigiendo la demanda. - Entre los jóvenes muy poca obra en el mercado. Aunque no haya obra en las subastas si que nos gustaría presentar a They (Ta Men), dos artistas con un trabajo hiperrealista y de fina crítica muy interesante para el público occidental. - La franja de artistas no entre los grandes experimenta un cierto estancamiento seguramente debido a la disminución de la demanda, pero sus obras continúan siendo interesantes y se revalorizarán en el medio término. Además una vez los precios de los grandes artistas son prohibitivos para un coleccionista medio o joven la demanda se desplazará a los artistas de segunda generación. Aconsejamos guiarse por obras que nos gusten en este segmento más que para esperar una revalorización en el corto plazo y solo se pueden conseguir en galería o artista.
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De hecho 100usd invertidos en los top artistas chinos contemporáneos en 2006, siete años después se han convertido en más de 2.100usd (sin buyers Premium, añadan de media un 20% para un precio de compra). En cambio 100€ invertidos en las bolsas de Europa se habría evaporado 7€ y si fueran 100USD invertidos en EEUU habríamos obtenido 143 USD, considerando que en junio el S&P 500 ha alcanzado su récord histórico. Invertir en los grandes nombres chinos continúa siendo una inversión muy rentable. A ello se añaden las pocas posibilidades de inversión de los chinos con una bolsa limitada y un mercado inmobiliario cada vez en peor estado. *Este índice se publicará al finalizar cada sesión de subastas en China y Hong Kong.
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CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART INDEX ARTANTIDE.ES ® 1S 2013 * It begins 2013 consolidating the trends seen in 2012 with the recovery of pre-crisis prices by great artists. Although it is true that the number of works of art on the market has dropped significantly and price estimates are always located in the higher bands, especially in China, which surely has led to a large number of unsold. The most important trends can be summarized in: - The mainland China market remains dominated by modern art and Chinese traditional ink. - The Western auction houses in Hong Kong are promoting contemporary art in ink, given by the high demand of this technique in China. - Recognized contemporary artists have surpassed pre-crisis prices 2008. With an appetite for historical works of these artists. Who has a large sum to invest and diversify, about 500.000usd, we recommend him to invest in the big names certainly as an alternative to stock market investments. * See our index. - Clearly the market has been divided into two groups: The great artists of contemporary art pioneers in China with stable or rising prices and fewer unsold if prices are "fair" as a blank check and alternative to any other investment. And the youth market which means if prices are reasonable to enter in it, to enjoy the work and keep it for a while. - Only the big names are a guarantee of liquidity, as large auction houses only accept big names whit this narrow market to ensure sales success. - Since large purchases by Europeans and Americans before 2008, now nearly all the market is dominated by the Chinese public. Hence works "classic" best perform rather than more “critical” or “contemporary” works.
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- Two names have stood out among all: Zhou Chunya with a large number of works on the market and sold and Zeng Fanzhi with his series of "lines" driving demand. - Among young very few work on the market. Although there is no work on auctions we would like to introduce They (Ta Men), two artists with work hyperrealist and interesting review for Western audiences. - All artists not among the great experiences some stagnation probably due to the decrease in demand, but his works continue to be interesting and are revalued in the medium term. Moreover once the prices of the great artists are prohibitive for a medium or young collector demand will shift to second-generation artists. We recommend guided you by works in this segment you like more rather to expect an appreciation in the short term and can only be bought in gallery or artist.
In fact 100usd invested in top contemporary Chinese artists in 2006, seven years after they have become more than 2.100usd (no buyers premium added, on average 20% for a purchase price). Instead â‚Ź100 invested in the Europe stock market would have evaporated â‚Ź7 and if they were invested in U.S. 100usd would have obtained 143usd, considering that in June the S&P 500 has reached its all times record. * This index is published at the end of each auction session in China and Hong Kong. 6
INDIVIDUAL REPORTS Cai Guo-Qiang Fang Lijun Liu Xiaodong Liu Ye Mao Xuhui Wang Guangyi Xue Song Ye Yongqing Yue Minjun Zeng Fanzhi Zhang Xiaogang Zhong Biao Zhou Chunya
ARTIST IN PROGRESSION They
HOW TO READ THE CHARTS The values of the charts are masked and are obtained through all the auction houses available and the prices are without buying premiums. The black line represents the linear trend. The red line represents the moving average. It could be different between artists due his number of works at auction. Please read the last page for advices using this information. 7
Cai Guo-Qiang Cai Guo-Qiang is a safe value despite the value of his works continues to decline. In this period just two works have been auctioned successfully, therefore we maintain our trust in his value. Less works at auction means more value in the future.
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Fang Lijun His work has experienced a dramatic increase in the last two years, coinciding also with the appearance of works of his most colorful series and works of his first term. Probably the surprise of this season, his works rarely go below 300.000USD (without buyers premium). The moving average shows a growth mainly due a well auctioned work at 1.867.600 usd in april; the trend is growing up as shown in the black trend.
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Liu Xiaodong The expressionist figure among contemporary artists has also surpassed its pre-crisis assessments. Just two works at auction successfully this year and prices rarely go below 250.000 usd.
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Liu Ye The finest between contemporary artists with their child figures is increasingly attracting a greater number of collectors, reaching its small size works (40x50cm usually) great values. In fact in June was auctioned his 2nd all times price at 2.346.100 usd.
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Mao Xuhui With the appearance of his works from the early days of the series called paternalism in 2011 has reached its higher prices and records. Beating a record his first work appeared at auction priced compared to its most popular series of scissors. The no appearance of old works report prices to normal levels. His scissors remains affordable below 30.000 usd and he is always one of the pioneers.
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Wang Guangyi One of the artists with more works in the market in the past, now with a few lots, probably due also at lower estimations. In any case, he is the Chinese contemporary art’s icon and father of it. In a more detailed analysis see the difference between the works of his early years that have achieved record and works from Great Criticism series that improved prices in the last two years but are far from the record reached in 2008. Now, they are stabilized and experiencing a weakness in the last auctions probably because he is for a more “western” taste. Depending on the quality of the work the price can increase, but this stabilization in prices means a sure asset if you are not “gourmand”. For a big collector is a must to have him.
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Xue Song When we move away from the "big", collectors' appetite decreases and the values go down. Xue Song with parallel activities in the creation of art funds is one of the most controversial and appears many works in the market. This year with less works seems prices recovered. A lot of works unsold, but an opportunity around 15.000usd.
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Ye Yongqing One of the historical of the movement of contemporary art in China but has not reached the heights of his colleagues and friends. Their prices are stable to slightly down due to the appearance of old works. We wonder if it will happen as Mao Xuhui moving in the second platoon and then suddenly his initial work has been evaluated several times their recent work. This year his “birds” series had been more appreciated rather than his “mixed” media. One of the pioneers at affordable prices below 30.000usd. Despite lower price reached this semester has been more close to 50.000usd.
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Yue Minjun Missed the smile? Among the great artists is the only one with prices seems in decline and without recovering the value lost after 2008. But this season something seems changing again. It is also true that there have not been great works on the market in the last season and moreover unlike the others artists with their early works reaching records, the early works of Yue Minjun without “the face smiling� did not awake any interest. While normal size works experience a slight increase from the bottom, about 40x40cm small ones continue to decline in value, much more than a half his peak reached in 2008. It is also true that these ones reached in the boom years an incredibly high value. Now you can afford a couple of small smile works under 60.000 usd. A great opportunity to enter now. It remains one of the most known and copied. In any market in China you’ll find his smiles counterfeited.
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Zeng Fanzhi The hottest artist in the market in 2011 and beginning 2012. Prices have already reached pre-crisis struggle collectors for his works, paying fortunes for their small masks (about 100cm). But the record has been established in a charity auction for a lion in lines for 4.805.000usd (without buyers premium). The positive trend recovers; despite you can find now a mask series around 600.000usd. Only for big collectors and long term now. The value of his work is progressive. “Lines� at 250.000usd, are a big opportunity.
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Zhang Xiaogang The most known, the most valued artist and unfortunately the one with a most fragile healthy. The market seemed to be a little tired of his works in 2012, mainly for his bloodline series portraits, although the value of their works reach very high prices and clearly pre-2000 works are much more valued than the recent ones. The trend recovers because of a few works at auction. It is a great opportunity to buy a bloodline series portrait now, with low prices than in the peak, but always a reference of the Chinese contemporary art. You can own a piece of history for 200.000usd (without buyers premium) for a 40x30 cm portrait.
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Zhong Biao Few works appears in the market with mixed success, more appreciated in the West than in China. It seems a loss of interest for one of the young promises of the Chinese contemporary art with a consolidate career. Probably due a narrow demand in general, therefore few collectors dispute for big names and disdain the rest of the market. We are sure that when demand comes back, he will be one of the rockets. He’s works evolve and his technique is incredible. A solo exhibition in the Venice Biennale has been organised and for us is a must to have. Tell us crazy!
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Zhou Chunya The major artist more desired by collectors in this 2013. All the series experienced a consistent demand pushing prices up. And despite the market has been inundated with tens of works, almost all has been sold. Their prices continue to grow. Despite fear that too many works invade the market that would reduce its price. Stones series, probably more close to Chinese taste are experiencing a big appetite and increase in prices. He’s the artist of 2013.
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ARTIST in PROGRESSION They or Ta Men A couple of artists with an excellent technique and an evolution in his thoughts and works. From a direct social critique to a more environmental approach without so direct critic, but still there. We know, women and experiences of couple of artists are less valued by the market. Also the confusion with his name in Pinyin or English do not help to find them. But, please look at their last works, and you’ll be in front of a hyperrealist works. There are just 5 works auctioned and only 4 successfully. Like other young artists with the reduction of the market, their prices has more than halved from the peak of 2006. When demand recovers we think they will be one of the most interesting artists. Also, his new approach could be more adequate for Chinese people and sure for western with more concerns about environment and society.
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COMMENTS ABOUT INDEX AND US: After 6 years following the Chinese art market we decided to publish end 2011 our “artatide.es index” and individual indexes for most known artists. For each artist there is available a version with more data and more detailed comments at 10€. Full version with more information and valuations is available at 50€. You can write to info@artantide.es asking for details.
CREDITS Published end of June 2013. If you like to publish any part of this report, please cite the source: www.artantide.es
® Copyright 2012 Compañía servicios empresariales Solca, sl All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report has been prepared and issued by Compañía servicios empresariales Solca, sl. The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any works of art related to the artist in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. You should seek specialist advice regarding the appropriateness of buying or selling any works of art or the strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from buying works of art, if any, may fluctuate and that each work of art’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report.
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