Este segundo número del magazine de artantide.es lo dedicamos exclusivamente a valorar el estado del arte chino contemporáneo en el primer trimestre de 2012, ya que continúa representando una óptima inversión a medio plazo, alternativa a los vaivenes de los mercados bursátiles y que además nos proporciona placer.
Junio 2012 ****
This second issue of the artantide.es magazine is dedicated exclusively to assess the state of contemporary Chinese art in the first quarter of 2012 as it continues to represent a good investment in the medium term, alternative to the vagaries of stock markets and moreover gives us pleasure.
June 2012
INDICE ARTANTIDE.ES ® ARTE CONTEMPORANEO CHINO 1S 2012* Finaliza el primer semestre de 2012 con las subastas de abril y mayo en Hong Kong por Sothebys y Christies, además de en junio con las de Beijing por las casas de subastas chinas. Continúan las tendencias mostradas a finales de 2011: - El mercado en la China continental ha sido dominado por el arte moderno y tradicional chino, llegándose a pagar 46M USD por una obra en tinta de Li Keran. - Los artistas contemporáneos reconocidos han vuelto a precios ante crisis de 2008. Con resultados dispares, pero con un gran apetito por los trabajos históricos de estos artistas. Quién disponga de una importante suma para invertir, alrededor de 500.000 usd recomendamos invertir en los grandes nombres sin duda como alternativa a las inversiones en bolsa. - El mercado de Hong Kong con más intervinientes occidentales ha mostrado un cierto cansancio pujando muy selectivamente por grandes nombres y pinturas de los 90, dejando un gran volumen de invendidos. En cambio el mercado de la China continental, más autóctono y con menor volumen de obras ha mantenido un buen tono. - La tendencia negativa de las bolsas europeas y la debilidad del euro en mayo coincidiendo con las subastas de HK ha hecho disminuir la demanda en ese momento. - Tres nombres han destacado entre todos: Zeng Fanzhi 2º mejor resultado a 4.508.000usd; Fang Lijun record a 3.220.000usd; y Zhou Chunya como el artista que experimenta un mayor apetito en todas sus series. (Precios sin buyers Premium). - La franja de artistas conocidos pero no entre los grandes experimenta un cierto estancamiento seguramente debido a la disminución de la demanda, pero sus obras continúan siendo 1
interesantes y se revalorizarán en el medio término. Aconsejamos guiarse por obras que nos gusten en este segmento más que para esperar una revalorización en el corto plazo.
De hecho 100USD invertidos en los top artistas chinos contemporáneos en 2006, seis años después se han convertido en 1.981USD (sin buyers Premium). En cambio 100€ invertidos en las bolsas de Europa se habría evaporado una parte sustancial hasta 77€ y si fueran 100USD invertidos en EEUU solo habríamos obtenido 118 USD. Invertir en los grandes nombres chinos continúa siendo una inversión muy rentable. A ello se añaden las pocas posibilidades de inversión de los chinos con una bolsa limitada y un mercado inmobiliario cada vez en peor estado.
*Este índice se publicará al finalizar cada sesión de subastas en China y Hong Kong. 2
CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART INDEX ARTANTIDE.ES ÂŽ 1S 2012 * Finish the first half of 2012 with auctions in April and May in Hong Kong by Sotheby's and Christies, in addition to Beijing in June by the Chinese auction houses. Continue the trends observed in late 2011: - The market in mainland China has been dominated by modern art and traditional Chinese, reaching US 46M to pay for a work of Li Keran in ink. - Contemporary recognized artists have recovered the prices reached before 2008 crisis. However, with mixed results, but with a great appetite for historical works of these artists. Who have a large sum to invest, about 500,000 usd we recommend to invest in the big names surely as an alternative to stock market investments. - The Hong Kong market with more involved Western actors shown fatigue, bidding selectively for big names and works of 90, leaving a large volume of unsold works. In contrast, mainland China market, more local and less volume of works maintained a good tone.
has the the has
- The negative trend of European stock markets and the weakness of the euro in May to coincide with the auctions of HK have reduced the demand at that time. - Three names have stood out among all: Zeng Fanzhi 2nd best result 4.508.000usd; Fang Lijun record to 3.220.000usd; and Zhou Chunya as the artist has experienced a desire in all its series. (Prices without buyer’s premium). - All known artists but not among the great experiences a stagnation probably due to decreased demand, but his works remain interesting and will revalue in the medium term. We suggest to be guided by works that you like in this segment rather than to wait for a revaluation in the short term.
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In fact 100USD invested in the top Chinese contemporary artists in 2006, six years after represents 1.981USD (no buyers premium). Instead €100 invested in Europe’s stocks would have evaporated a substantial up to €77 and if they were invested in U.S. 100USD would have obtained only 118 USD.
Investing in major Chinese names is still a very profitable investment. In addition, you have to consider that there are few investment opportunities for the Chinese people with a limited stock market and a housing market in worse shape.
* This index is published after each session auctions in China and Hong Kong.
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INDIVIDUAL REPORTS Cai Guo-Qiang Fang Lijun Liu Xiaodong Liu Ye Mao Xuhui Wang Guangyi Xue Song Ye Yongqing Yue Minjun Zeng Fanzhi Zhang Xiaogang Zhong Biao Zhou Chunya
HOW TO READ THE CHARTS The values of the charts are masked and are obtained through all the auction houses available and the prices are without buying premiums. The black line represents the linear trend. The red line represents the moving average. It could be different between artists due his number of works at auction. Please read the last page for advices using this information.
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Cai Guo-Qiang Cai Guo-Qiang is a safe value and the value of his works continues to grow. In this period only one work has been auctioned, therefore we maintain our trust in his value. Less works at auction means more value.
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Fang Lijun His work has experienced a dramatic increase in the last two years, coinciding also with the appearance of works of his most colorful series and works of his first term. Probably the surprise of this season, his works rarely go below 400.000USD (without buyers premium) and in April one reaches a record of 3.220.000USD. Despite the moving average shows a decline due a limited works on sale and that some of them achieved big prices; the trend is growing up as shown in the black trend.
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Liu Xiaodong The expressionist figure among contemporary artists has also surpassed its pre-crisis assessments. Just two works at auction in this season.
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Liu Ye The finest between contemporary artists with their child figures is increasingly attracting a greater number of collectors, reaching its small size works great values.
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Mao Xuhui With the appearance of his works from the early days of the series called paternalism in 2011 has reached its higher prices and records. Beating a record his first work appeared at auction priced compared to its most popular series of scissors. This assessment of his early work has continued and has allowed the rest of his works to maintain the rating, however there is a few weaknesses in his paternalism works.
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Wang Guangyi One of the artists with more works in the market. The Chinese contemporary art icon and father of it. The appearance of his early works in 2011 has helped the price of his works to increase considerably. In a more detailed analysis see the difference between the works of his early years that have achieved record and works Great Criticism series that improved prices in the last two years but are far from the record reached in 2008 and stabilized and experiencing a weakness in the last auctions probably because he is for a more “western” taste. Depending on the quality of the work the price can increase, but this stabilization means a sure asset if you are not “gourmand”.
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Xue Song When we move away from the "big", collectors' appetite decreases and the values go down. Xue Song with parallel activities in the creation of art funds is one of the most controversial and appears many works in the market. In fact the trend is downward.
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Ye Yongqing One of the historical of the movement of contemporary art in China but has not reached the heights of his colleagues and friends. Their prices are stable to slightly up due to the appearance of old works. We wonder if it will happen as Mao Xuhui moving in the second platoon and then suddenly his initial work has been evaluated several times their recent work.
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Yue Minjun Among the great artists is the only one with prices seems in decline and without recovering part or all of the value lost after 2008. It is also true that there have not been great works on the market in the last season and moreover unlike the others artists with their early works reached records, the early works of Yue Minjun without “the face smiling� did not awake any interest. While normal size works experience a slight increase from the bottom, about 40x40cm small continue to decline in value, almost at half his peak in 2008. It is also true that these ones reached in the boom years an incredibly high value.
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Zeng Fanzhi The HOTTEST artist in the market. Prices have already reached pre-crisis struggle collectors for his works, paying fortunes for their small masks (about 100cm), achieving his 2nd result at 4.508.000usd (without buyers premium). The value of his work is progressive and its higher profile also influenced the rest of his work here I call “lines� and corresponds to his particular way of strokes in other works that are not masks. At low value, but in any case with a strong trend.
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Zhang Xiaogang In the same situation as Zeng Fanzhi but the market seems to be a little tired of his works, mainly for his bloodline series portraits, although the value of their works reach very high prices and clearly pre-2000 works are much more valued than the recent. Another work reached 5.924.800usd (without buyers premium). The trend suffers because the lost of value of small formats, if not the demand is still strong. It is a great opportunity to buy a bloodline series portrait now, with low prices than in the peak, but always a reference of the Chinese contemporary art. In any case do not expect to put less than 200.000 usd (without buyers premium) for a 40x30 cm portrait.
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Zhong Biao Only one work appears in the market with mixed success, more appreciated in the West than in China. Last auctions in Europe and Beijing in 2011 have returned Zhong Biao at prices close to before 2008 at around 100.000USD.
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Zhou Chunya One of the major artists desired by collectors. Except green dogs series, all the others series experienced a consistent demand pushing prices up.
Their prices continue to grow. The only fear is that it does invade the market with too many works that would reduce its price.
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COMMENTS ABOUT INDEX AND US: After 6 years following the Chinese art market we decided to publish end 2011 our “artatide.es index” and individual indexes for most known artists. For each artist there is available a version with more data and more detailed comments at 10€. Full version with more information and valuations is available at 50€. You can write to josep.solercasanellas@gmail.com asking for details.
CREDITS Published middle of June 2012 If you like to publish any part of this report, please cite the source: www.artantide.es
® Copyright 2012 Compañía servicios empresariales Solca, sl All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report has been prepared and issued by Compañía servicios empresariales Solca, sl. The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any works of art related to the artist in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. You should seek specialist advice regarding the appropriateness of buying or selling any works of art or the strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from buying works of art, if any, may fluctuate and that each work of art’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report.
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