Valoramos el estado del arte chino contemporáneo en 2012, ya que continúa representando una óptima inversión a medio plazo, alternativa a los vaivenes de los mercados bursátiles y que además nos proporciona placer. El gran vencedor Zhou Chunya y entre las jóvenes promesas Xiong Lijun (m).
Diciembre 2012
****
We assess the state of contemporary Chinese art in 2012 as it continues to represent a good investment in the medium term, alternative to the vagaries of stock markets and moreover give us pleasure. The winner is Zhou Chunya, and among the youngsters Xiong Lijun (f).
December 2012
NOTICIAS SOBRE ARTANTIDE.ES Un año difícil está por terminar, con las cajas vacías pero con multitud de proyectos interesantes. Sin duda el arte contemporáneo chino es la apuesta de futuro, un país que aún disminuyendo el ritmo de crecimiento lo hace al 7,5%; un mercado de arte chino que ha recuperado los precios de 2007 y 2008; y donde es necesario disponer de especialistas que te puedan asesorar correctamente pues hablamos de millares de artistas en ese mercado. Por nuestra parte, 2013, nos verá organizadores en Barcelona de la muestra de arte contemporáneo chino más importante que se hará en Europa, donde presentaremos una selección de artista jóvenes junto a los artistas más importantes.
NEWS ABOUT ARTANTIDE.ES A difficult year is ending, with empty boxes but with many interesting projects.
No doubt the Chinese contemporary art is the commitment to the future, a country still decreasing the growth rate to 7.5% does, a Chinese art market has recovered the prices of 2007 and 2008, and where it is necessary to have specialists can advise you speak properly because of thousands of artists in that market.
For our part, 2013, we will see in Barcelona organizers of Chinese contemporary art show that will be most important in Europe, where we will present a selection of young artists alongside major artists.
1
INDICE ARTANTIDE.ES ® ARTE CONTEMPORANEO CHINO 2012* Finaliza el 2012 consolidando las tendencias ya observadas en 2011 con la recuperación de precios ante crisis para los grandes artistas. Aunque también es verdad que el número de obras de arte en el mercado ha disminuido considerablemente y las estimaciones de precios se han situado siempre en las franjas más elevadas, lo que seguramente ha llevado a un número importante de invendidos. Las tendencias más importantes las podemos resumir en: - El mercado en la China continental continúa siendo dominado por el arte moderno y tradicional chino. - Los artistas contemporáneos reconocidos han superado los precios ante crisis de 2008. Con un gran apetito por los trabajos históricos de estos artistas. Quién disponga de una importante suma para invertir, alrededor de 200.000 usd le recomendamos invertir en los grandes nombres sin duda como alternativa a las inversiones en bolsa. *Ver nuestro índice. - Claramente el mercado se ha dividido en dos grupos: El de los grandes artistas que iniciaron el arte contemporáneo en China con precios estables o subiendo y pocas obras no vendidas si los precios son “justos” como un cheque en blanco y alternativa a cualquier otra inversión. Y el mercado de los jóvenes donde entrar significa hacerlo solo a buenos precios para poder gozar de la obra y mantenerla durante un tiempo. - Las bolsas han recuperado un respetable 12% en 2012, pero nada que ver con las posibilidades de rendimiento de los grandes artistas. - Tres nombres han destacado entre todos: Zhou Chunya con récords (1.651.200USD) en todas sus series y con un gran número de obras en el mercado y todas vendidas; Zeng Fanzhi y sus máscaras; y entre los jóvenes queremos destacar una artista joven que nos orgullece tener en artantide como es Xiong Lijun. 2
- La franja de artistas no entre los grandes experimenta un cierto estancamiento seguramente debido a la disminución de la demanda, pero sus obras continúan siendo interesantes y se revalorizarán en el medio término. Además una vez los precios de los grandes artistas son prohibitivos para un coleccionista medio o joven la demanda se desplazará a los artistas de segunda generación. Aconsejamos guiarse por obras que nos gusten en este segmento más que para esperar una revalorización en el corto plazo.
De hecho 100USD invertidos en los top artistas chinos contemporáneos en 2006, seis años después se han convertido en en casi 2.000usd de media en 2012 (sin buyers Premium, añadan de media un 20% para un precio de compra). En cambio 100€ invertidos en las bolsas de Europa se habría evaporado una parte hasta 93€ y si fueran 100USD invertidos en EEUU solo habríamos obtenido 127 USD. Invertir en los grandes nombres chinos continúa siendo una inversión muy rentable. A ello se añaden las pocas posibilidades de inversión de los chinos con una bolsa limitada y un mercado inmobiliario cada vez en peor estado. *Este índice se publicará al finalizar cada sesión de subastas en China y Hong Kong.
3
CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART INDEX ARTANTIDE.ES 速 2012 * Ends 2012 consolidating the trends seen in 2011 with prices recovering from crises for major artists. Although it is true that the number of works of art on the market has decreased significantly and price estimates are always located in the higher end, which surely has led to a large number of unsold. The most important trends can be summarized in: - The market in mainland China is still dominated by traditional and modern Chinese art. - The renowned contemporary artists have surpassed 2008 crisis prices. With an appetite for historical works of these artists. Who have a large sum to invest, about 200,000 usd we recommend investing in the big names certainly as an alternative to stock market investments. - Clearly the market has been divided into two groups: The great artists of contemporary art began in China with stable or rising prices and fewer unsold works if prices are "fair" as a blank check and an alternative to any other investment. And the youth market which means go it only at good prices in order to enjoy the work and keep it for a while. - Stocks have recovered a respectable 12% in 2012, but nothing to do with the performance possibilities of the great artists. - Three names have stood out among all: Zhou Chunya with records (1.651.200USD) in all series and with a large number of works on the market and sold all; Zeng Fanzhi and their masks; and we want to highlight a young artist we are proud to be at ARTantide as Xiong Lijun. - Artists not among the great, experiences a stagnation probably due to the decrease in demand, but his works remain interesting and are revalued in the medium term. Moreover once the prices of the great artists are prohibitive for a medium or young collector demand will shift to second-generation artists. We suggest to be guided by works that you like in this segment rather than to expect an appreciation in the short term. 4
In fact 100USD invested in top contemporary Chinese artists in 2006, six years after they have become almost 2.000usd average in 2012 (without buyers premium, to add on average 20% on purchase price). Instead 100€ invested in the stock of Europe would have evaporated some up to 93€ and if they were invested in U.S. 100USD would have obtained only 127USD. Investing in large Chinese names remains a very profitable investment. This is compounded by the limited possibilities of the Chinese people’s investment with a limited bag and a housing market in worse shape.
* This index is published after each session auctions in China and Hong Kong.
5
INDIVIDUAL REPORTS Cai Guo-Qiang Fang Lijun Liu Xiaodong Liu Ye Mao Xuhui Wang Guangyi Xue Song Ye Yongqing Yue Minjun Zeng Fanzhi Zhang Xiaogang Zhong Biao Zhou Chunya
ARTIST IN PROGRESSION Xiong Lijun
HOW TO READ THE CHARTS The values of the charts are masked and are obtained through all the auction houses available and the prices are without buying premiums. The black line represents the linear trend. The red line represents the moving average. It could be different between artists due his number of works at auction. Please read the last page for advices using this information. 6
Cai Guo-Qiang Cai Guo-Qiang is a safe value and the value of his works continues to grow, despite a small regression in value. In this period few works have been auctioned, therefore we maintain our trust in his value. Less works at auction means more value in the future.
7
Fang Lijun His work has experienced a dramatic increase in the last two years, coinciding also with the appearance of works of his most colorful series and works of his first term. Probably the surprise of this season, his works rarely go below 300.000USD (without buyers premium) and in April one reaches a record of 3.220.000USD. Despite the moving average shows a decline due a limited works on sale and that some of them achieved big prices; the trend is growing up as shown in the black trend.
8
Liu Xiaodong The expressionist figure among contemporary artists has also surpassed its pre-crisis assessments. Just four works at auction this year.
9
Liu Ye The finest between contemporary artists with their child figures is increasingly attracting a greater number of collectors, reaching its small size works (40x50cm usually) great values.
10
Mao Xuhui With the appearance of his works from the early days of the series called paternalism in 2011 has reached its higher prices and records. Beating a record his first work appeared at auction priced compared to its most popular series of scissors. The no appearance of old works report prices to normal levels. His scissors remains affordable below 30.000 usd and he is always one of the pioneers.
11
Wang Guangyi One of the artists with more works in the market in the past, now with a few lots, probably due also at lower estimations. In any case, the Chinese contemporary art’s icon and father of it. In a more detailed analysis see the difference between the works of his early years that have achieved record and works from Great Criticism series that improved prices in the last two years but are far from the record reached in 2008. Now, they are stabilized and experiencing a weakness in the last auctions probably because he is for a more “western” taste. Depending on the quality of the work the price can increase, but this stabilization means a sure asset if you are not “gourmand”. For a big collector is a must to have him.
12
Xue Song When we move away from the "big", collectors' appetite decreases and the values go down. Xue Song with parallel activities in the creation of art funds is one of the most controversial and appears many works in the market. In fact the trend is downward. A lot of unsolds, but an opportunity around 15.000usd.
13
Ye Yongqing One of the historical of the movement of contemporary art in China but has not reached the heights of his colleagues and friends. Their prices are stable to slightly down due to the appearance of old works. We wonder if it will happen as Mao Xuhui moving in the second platoon and then suddenly his initial work has been evaluated several times their recent work. This year his “birds” series had been more appreciated rather than his “mixed” media. One of the pioneers at affordable prices below 20.000usd.
14
Yue Minjun Missed the smile? Among the great artists is the only one with prices seems in decline and without recovering the value lost after 2008. It is also true that there have not been great works on the market in the last season and moreover unlike the others artists with their early works reaching records, the early works of Yue Minjun without “the face smiling� did not awake any interest. While normal size works experience a slight increase from the bottom, about 40x40cm small ones continue to decline in value, much more than a half his peak reached in 2008. It is also true that these ones reached in the boom years an incredibly high value. Now you can afford small smile works under 60.000 usd. A great opportunity to enter now. It remains one of the most known and copied. In any market in China you’ll find his smiles counterfeited.
15
Zeng Fanzhi The HOTTEST artist in the market in 2011 and begin 2012. Prices have already reached pre-crisis struggle collectors for his works, paying fortunes for their small masks (about 100cm), achieving his 2nd result at 4.508.000usd (without buyers premium). The overall trend suffers, but it’s rare to find a mask series below 1.000.000usd. Only for big collectors and long term now. The value of his work is progressive and its higher profile also influenced the rest of his work here I call “lines” and corresponds to his particular way of strokes in other works that are not masks. At “low entry value” (300.000usd), but in any case with a strong trend.
16
Zhang Xiaogang The most known, the most valued artist and unfortunately the one with a most fragile healthy. The market seems to be a little tired of his works, mainly for his bloodline series portraits, although the value of their works reach very high prices and clearly pre-2000 works are much more valued than the recent. Another work reached 5.924.800usd (without buyers premium). The trend suffers because the loss of value of small formats and because high expectations of return for normal sizes. It is a great opportunity to buy a bloodline series portrait now, with low prices than in the peak, but always a reference of the Chinese contemporary art. You can own a piece of history for 150.000usd (without buyers premium) for a 40x30 cm portrait.
17
Zhong Biao Few works appears in the market with mixed success, more appreciated in the West than in China. It seems a loss of interest for one of the young promises of the Chinese contemporary art with a consolidate career. Probably due a narrow demand in general, therefore few collectors dispute for big names and disdain the rest of the market. We are sure than when demand comes back, he will be one of the rockets.
18
Zhou Chunya One of the major artists desired by collectors. All the series experienced a consistent demand pushing prices up.
Their prices continue to grow. Despite fear that too many works invade the market that would reduce its price. Finished 2012 with a huge volume of works, all sold, and a record of 1.651.2000usd for a stones series.
He’s the artist of 2012.
19
ARTIST in PROGRESSION Xiong Lijun She’s one of the young artists with more future. She rocket at 08 like all the market and now it seems to recover confidence coming back to 30.000usd level. There are not works from she on the market and we can offer a greatest opportunity with old works from her.
20
COMMENTS ABOUT INDEX AND US: After 6 years following the Chinese art market we decided to publish end 2011 our “artatide.es index” and individual indexes for most known artists. For each artist there is available a version with more data and more detailed comments at 10€. Full version with more information and valuations is available at 50€. You can write to info@artantide.es asking for details.
CREDITS Published end of December 2012 If you like to publish any part of this report, please cite the source: www.artantide.es
® Copyright 2012 Compañía servicios empresariales Solca, sl All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report has been prepared and issued by Compañía servicios empresariales Solca, sl. The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any works of art related to the artist in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. You should seek specialist advice regarding the appropriateness of buying or selling any works of art or the strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from buying works of art, if any, may fluctuate and that each work of art’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report.
21