ATS March Short Circuit 2015

Short Circuit MARCH 2015

Advice to members

HYDRO SITUATION

Tracey Gordon, ATS Energy Account Manager

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The maximum peak demand of 168.8 megawatts over the summer was largely due to the increased demand for irrigation.

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Tracey Gordon

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Not only did it distribute more power than ever before, but the amount of power being demanded at peak times was also a record high.

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EA Networks recorded its highest ever peak electricity demand of 168 MW on January 9, nearly 10 MW more than the previous record set in November 2013.

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Network hits power peak

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EA Networks has experienced a decade of increasing irrigation load growth.

EA Networks General Manager Gordon Guthrie says while most recent developments have been pressure rather than pumped schemes, they still result in more on-farm demand in the form of centre pivot irrigation, milking sheds and pumped water distribution.

Further south, Alpine Energy has experienced a slight lift in volumes but not as much as it would have experienced if more water had been available.

CURRENT HYDRO SITUATION National hydro storage is sitting around 12 per cent below average for mid-February

Storage in the Waitaki system, which includes the Tekapo, Pukaki and Ohau lakes is now 12 per cent below the summer average.

Contact’s Clutha is at 32 per cent below average for this time of year.

Storage at Meridian’s Waiau system, including the Manapouri and Te Anau lakes, dropped by 21 per cent to 308 GWh. It is now 4 per cent above the seasonal average.

ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY UPDATE It is nearing that time of year when distributors and retailers review their pricing, so it is timely that the Electricity Authority is developing new guidelines to ensure transparent information around electricity charges for both retailers and distributers.

The guidelines apply to retailers and distributors when they communicate price changes to consumers, and when they make media statements about price changes.

The authority wants to avoid a repeat of the consumer confusion when retailers and distributors gave differing statements following last April’s changes to regulated distribution charges.

It investigated retail pricing and began looking at how retail billing transparency could be improved.

Its investigation into retailer and lines companies’ statements in 2014 found that all were technically correct. But different metrics used by the various firms to calculate increases or decreases led to widespread public confusion. They hope to have the guidelines published by the 7th of April 2015.

For any questions or issues regarding your electricity needs, please call Tracey today at ATS Energy on 0800 BUY ATS (289 287).

SHORT CIRCUIT | MARCH 2015

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A Meridian spokesman said that while storage was below average, the company’s catchments were receiving “regular, small” inflows and the firm’s generation position was not adversely affected.

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Information taken from NZX Energy DISCLAIMER: The purpose of this information is to outline historic data and is intended for general reference only

Big shifts in alpine water sources loom

By Richard Rennie

As Canterbury fries in one of the hottest summers for a generation and electricity companies juggle peak loads for irrigators, those most reliant upon electricity for water may well be wondering what is in store for the coming season.

About 60% of New Zealand’s electricity is held in the form of water in hydro storage lakes, and over half that is in only two lakes, Tekapo and Pukaki.

Both have proven robust energy storage sources, and more recently it has been suggested they play a dual role, as irrigation sources for farms in the South Canterbury region.

Despite the heat and draw of electricity for irrigation that Canterbury has required this summer, even by late February the hydro lakes were looking healthier than their irrigation counterparts like Ophua, at that stage only a few days from being completely shut down.

While Ophua was sitting on a mere 10% of its capacity, the alpine sourced hydro lakes have been robustly running at about 94% of their average storage capacity, and inflow levels continue to be relatively strong at about 95% of average.

Those levels could come as a surprise given the relatively low snow fall in the Alps last winter, and the high temperatures during the summer.

These pointers have left some within the industry wondering if the sector is heading towards a “2001” scenario. Then, low snow melt, a hot summer and cold winter resulted in the government being forced to launch a campaign to save 10% in electricity as hydro lakes fell from similar levels to now, to below 50% capacity by late winter.

So far the industry is being careful not to be calling a similar scenario, as analysts and pricing specialists go about their back room work starting to set rates for the coming year.

However a glance at the electricity futures indicates at this stage there is relatively little concern over the conditions that have impacted so significantly upon irrigators.

Futures rates set into the coming quarter are not uncharacteristically high, exhibiting the usual seasonal pattern on volume and settlement prices of last year.

A spokesman for major electricity wholesaler Genesis Energy said the national storage level of 94% of average capacity for the time of year is “not concerning.”

“The weather forecast for the next month is for more dry weather, but beyond that anything could happen.”

The likelihood of any hydro shortage pushing up electricity prices may still be difficult to determine, and the impact should a shortage result is likely to be moderated compared to the 2001 crisis due to changes in the country’s electricity generation infrastructure since then.

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While hydro is still important, since the crisis of 2001 other power supply sources have come into play.

The most significant are non-weather dependent combined cycle gas powered stations which moved from barely supplying 5000GWh then, to twice that by 2013.

Meantime the country’s demand for power has slowed in its growth trajectory. Between 2012 and 2013 demand actually declined by 1%, with the drops in residential and industrial use bought about by increased insulation and energy efficiency offsetting the 5% growth in agricultural electricity use.

But longer term there are some “macro” changes occurring that are likely to affect high use energy users like summer irrigators within the decade. These changes come from the complex interaction of climate change effects, with shifts in precipitation levels types within the Alps.

Work done by NIWA scientists in the Alps has already provided some insights that should concern farmers needing electricity for irrigation, as much as those insights also affect the supply of irrigation water itself.

In the past decade alone the Alps have lost 28% of their snow volume, a disconcerting figure when that volume is the source of 50% of the summer inflows to the country’s hydro storage lakes.

Hydrologist Dr Daniel Collins says as climate changes more westerly airflows are likely to drop less snow and more rain onto the West Coast and the Alps, but less rain into the foothills and Plains themselves.

A report by Dr Daniel’s colleague James Renwick looking specifically at the impact on hydroelectricity indicates “bonus” inflow to the hydro lakes in the form of this increased rainfall, particularly over winter and early spring.

The changes come as a double edge sword for irrigators and electricity users on the Plains.

While the level of precipitation is expected to remain relatively similar, or even increase as rain, more of that rain water in proportion to snow will be stored in hydro lakes, and still available to generate electricity.

However that also means less “snow sourced” water available for river flows for use in irrigation later in summer, requiring more bulk water storage in the region to make up for that shift from snow to rain.

If you have any concerns or issues with your electricity, please call Tracey at ATS Energy on 0800 BUY ATS (289 287).

SHORT CIRCUIT | MARCH 2015