NEW LISTINGS
COMING SOON
ANNOUNCEMENTS HOME OFFICE
ANNOUNCEMENTS AP OFFICE
Atlanta Perimeter Office Market Update
What we’ll cover
• Another Reason This Isn’t Like Last Time
• Household Formations, the Supply of New Construction and it’s impact
• Inflation, the 10 Year Treasury and Interest Rates
• How They’re Related and How to Predict Where They’re Going
• Buyers “Waiting Out” the Market
• Is it Really Worth it/A Good Idea?
• Dunwoody/SS/Brookhaven Area Market Update
• Bucking Recent National Trends
Household Formations and New Construction
Recent Atlanta Market Trends –
6 Core County*
Inflation Drives Mortgage Rates
Inflation for the last 2 years
The future for Inflation*
= Previous monthly readings no longer counting towards inflation
= Most previous month that was replaced with newest reading
= Current month’s (last 12) when added together equals current inflation reading
0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 JUN-21 JUL-21 AUG-21 SEP-21 OCT-21 NOV-21 DEC-21 JAN-22 FEB-22 MAR-22 APR-22 MAY-22 JUN-22 JUL-22 AUG-22 SEP-22 OCT-22 NOV-22 DEC-22 JAN-23 FEB-23 MAR-23
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - currently 6.0%
When will Inflation Peak?
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 JAN-22 FEB-22 MAR-22 APR-22 MAY-22 JUN-22 JUL-22 AUG-22 SEP-22 OCT-22 NOV-22 DEC-22 JAN-23 PCE Month PCE less Food and Energy TIME_PERIOD PCE excluding food and energy
The 10 Yr Treasury and Mortgage Rates
Interest Rates – Current Volatility
Buyers’ Mortgage Rate “Appetite”
Sales Price Seasonality Trends –
Last 5 Years
Buyer’s “Waiting Out” the Market
Things to Consider
• Historically, sales prices rise from January through the summer
• But let’s assume the increase in 2023 is Half of the Average and is 6.5% increase. That means the $400,000 Median SP home today will be selling for $426,000 in 6 months when we expect interest rates to potentially soften.
Year Percent Increase Jan-July 2018 15% 2019 11.3% 2020 11.3% 2021 19.7% 2022 15.4% Average Excluding 2021 13.25%
Buyer’s “Waiting Out” the Market
Things to Consider
*Assumptions
• Interest rates actually get to 5.5% by the summer
• If they do, more buyers will be in the market which will create more demand. More demand means prices will likely increase beyond the conservative 6.5%
Interest Rate Comparison
•
•
Home Price Interest Rate Monthly P&I Monthly Savings Savings over 6 Months $400,000 6.8% $2086 $400,000 6.1% $1939 $147 $882 $400,000 5.8% $1878 $208 $1248 $400,000 5.5% $1817 $269 $1614 $426,000 in 6 mos 5.5% $1935*
Historical Appreciation
Are we poised for a housing reset after consecutive years of significant appreciation?
• History suggests otherwise
Purchase Mortgage Applications
Not All Markets are the Same….. Don’t Believe Everything You See/Hear!
Dun/SS/Brook Market Update –
6 Core County
4 Types of Listings
• Those selling above OLP
• Those selling at OLP
Last 60 Days
• Those selling below OLP that don’t require a Price Reduction
• Those selling below OLP requiring a Price Reduction
•
Dun/SS/Brook Market Update –
Last 60 Days
* Sellers paying Seller Contributions 50% of the time. Average contribution is $9,640 or approximately 1.5% of Sales Price
SFR -134 Total Above OLP (Compelling Price) At OLP (Compelling Price) Below OLP no PR (Competitive Price) Below OLP PR (Unrealistic Price) % of Market 28.4% 11.2% 36.2% 26.8% Med SP $667,500 $895,000 $700,000 $632,500 Total DOM 4.6 Days 8 Days 34.2 Days 85.7 Days % SP/OLP 104.5% 100% 95.6% 91.7% % Mil + 7.9% 33% 22% 5.5%
Dun/SS/Brook Market Update –
Active Inventory – SFR
• 88 Homes available
• TDOM – 71 Days
• Median OLP - $839,950
• % Price Red – 26%
• 40% over Mil+
Last 60 Days
Pending Inventory - SFR
• 108 Homes
• TDOM – 27 Days
• Median OLP - $725,000
• % Price Red – 21%
• 18.5% over Mil+
Solds This Year vs. Last
• 134 vs 186 (Down 28%)
• TDOM – 36.7 vs 21.6 (Up 70%)
• Median SP - $680,950 vs $653,000 (Up4.3%)
Dun/SS/Brook Market Update – Last 60 Days
Active Mil + Inventory – SFR
• 35 homes available (40 % of Total)
• TDOM – 66.7 Days
• Median OLP - $1,550,000
• % Price Red – 37%
Pending Mil+ - SFR
• 20 Homes (18.5% of Total)
• TDOM – 63.3 Days
• Median OLP - $1,362,500
• % Price Red – 30%
Mil+ Sold Summary
• 20 Homes available (15% of Total Sales)
• TDOM – 25 Days
• Median OLP - $1,250,000
• % Price Red – 10%
• 40% over Mil+
Dun/SS/Brook Market Update –
Last 60 Days
* Sellers paying Seller Contributions 60% of the time. Average contribution is $4708 or approximately 1.5% of Sales Price
Condo/TH – 133 total Above OLP (Compelling Price) At OLP (Compelling Price) Below OLP no PR (Competitive Price) Below OLP PR (Unrealistic Price) % of Market 18% 24.8% 27% 30% Med SP $302,000 $325,000 $313,500 $313,500 Total DOM 5.6 Days 16 Days 17 Days 76 Days % SP/OLP 103.5% 100% 97.8% 92.9%
Dun/SS/Brook Market Update –
Last 60 Days
Active Inventory – Condo/TH
• 86 Homes Available
• TDOM – 44 Days
• Median OLP - $292,500
• % Price Red – 25%
Pending Inventory – Condo/TH
• 87 Homes Pending
• TDOM – 30 Days
• Median OLP - $299,900
• % Price Red – 23%
6 Core County Market Summary
MARC GARFINKEL
