Paying for Social Value:
Impacts not opening hours James Ellender explains how local government aquatic and recreation facilities can stay viable through and beyond COVID-19
s of the end of October, if you come from the 20% most deprived areas around Australian and New Zealand centres A you’re 16.47% more likely to have cancelled your membership. In the years to come the impact of COVID-19 on our local communities will not only be measured by the number who sadly lost their lives to the virus, but also the millions of people whose lives were indirectly impacted. This includes those who went from active to sedentary overnight. The forced closure of key community aquatic, fitness and recreation facilities has been widely documented, with most articles focussed on the immediate impact to the commercial sustainability of these businesses, with jobs and livelihoods at stake. What is less documented are the following three areas: 1.Older people and those from the most deprived areas have become and remain the most disengaged Reopenings have exasperated the change in the profile of use and demand for traditional community venues, with the current average age of a re-engaged member at 46, compared to 49 pre-COVID. On the surface this still presents an immediate commercial problem as on average younger members stay on average 6.33 months less than older members. This combination will inevitably lead to an even greater business viability cliff edge in the six to 12 months ahead. The average decline in membership numbers across states that are starting to plateau following reopenings is 25.3%, compared to preCOVID levels. The ActiveXchange Data Science Team (who power the predictive models behind the SportsEye platform) are 52 Australasian Leisure Management Issue 141
forecasting a further 10.3% decline in member numbers by 2021 due to this shift in membership profile - unless action is taken early. For a lot of facilities this will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The members re-engaging are primarily the same 15 to 40 age group who we saw out doing squat thrusts in the parks through the lockdown period from March onwards, for whom activity is an ingrained and affordable part of their balanced lifestyles. But it’s this age bracket who are quick to jump between venues, have less loyalty and therefore represent a lower return on investment (ROI) for the operator. It’s this age group whose average membership length continues to decline (1.67-month decline leading up to COVID) with a further 2-8% decline expected in the months ahead. Who we didn’t see, and still don’t see as much as we should in either the parks or back in centre are the over 70 year olds - these are the Tuesday morning aqua aerobics and Pilates generation, or those from the less affluent catchments. Juggling virus related health concerns, membership freezes and suspensions, followed by one-way systems, bottles of sanitiser on arrival, and out of bounds cafes (the café being as bigger driver for being active as the session itself), have sadly become a barrier too far for many. For those from deprived areas, even a concession membership becomes an ‘unnecessary’ expense when your job is uncertain. For venues that have now been open for several months, the impact on these two groups is still the case, with membership suspensions gathering dust and fast becoming cancellations.
