Finding the crossover

Over the years, gluten-free has been a category that’s caused the baking industry a fair amount of stress and head scratching. When first introduced more than a decade ago, many bakers rightfully wondered about the point of trying to make quality baked goods without a key ingredient for a niche audience. It’s a valid point, one that continues to be explored via ongoing R&D and formulation more than a decade later — to outstanding results.

At first, the gluten-free category was largely driven by need, and many bakery manufacturers struggled to commit resources to such a small demographic. Since then, the category has grown strong, thanks in part to the commitment of several players who were intent on offering gluten-free options. This was often instigated by the desire to provide gluten-free baked goods for a loved one or friend.

Growth in the gluten-free category is evidenced by a sizable market for these products. Grand View Research notes that North American markets make up an approximate 37% share of the global gluten-free market. According to Statista, global sales are valued at $6.6 billion in 2022 with projections for it to reach $13 billion by 2023. This trajectory can also be seen in gluten-free sales from Thomasville, GA-based Flowers Foods, which has seen steady growth in the category since 2017.

“Whether the adoption of a gluten-free diet is a medical necessity, as it is for the 1% of the population with celiac disease or the approximately 13% of the population with a gluten-related disorder, or a preference because of perceived/realized wellness, the gluten-free diet is a choice rooted in the ability for consumers to control their own health outcomes,” said Jeanne Reid, marketing manager of the Gluten Intolerance Group (GIG).

GIG found 23% of consumers are shopping for gluten-free products, with 7% rigidly restricting gluten in their homes. Eighty-two percent of these purchases are influenced by certification. The GIG’s Gluten Free Certification Organization program, for example, offers independent, third-party certification for gluten-free products.

This growth may also be attributed to the crossover consumer. Just one person in a household following a gluten-free diet can strongly influence other members within the household. Additionally, the American College of Gastroenterology recommends screening for first-degree family members of someone with celiac disease and people with signs, symptoms or lab results indicative of the disease.

The gluten-free category also witnessed a peak several years ago among those who looked to improve their health by eliminating gluten. As with many trends, this too is experiencing modulation, though the category continues to serve people with celiac disease and consumers who choose a gluten-free lifestyle.

Some manufacturers who are not willing to accept an all-or-nothing rule

Gluten-free shoppers by age:

28% Gen Xers

24% Baby boomers

20% Millennials

are taking the charge. More bakers are choosing to lead with taste before talking about gluten-free attributes — something appreciated by those who choose to avoid gluten. These manufacturers are approaching the category with new eyes, looking for a crossover audience that includes those who need gluten-free foods and those eating alongside them.

“This is a sizable market, and it’s an addressable market,” said Jonna Parker, fresh foods team lead at Circana. “It’s important to understand who the shopper is. It’s not just the celiac or the gluten-intolerant shopper.”

Parker stressed the importance of leading with taste and experience first.

This shifts the focus from a product that may not taste good to one that is delicious and safe for the glutenintolerant consumer. Such an approach can make the product more accessible for more people.

Then it’s important to ask if a gluten-free product is regularly purchased as a need-based item. If so, are there other gluten- or grain-free products that could easily be subbed in? One example is the sandwich bread, buns and rolls category. If a tasty gluten-free bread/ bun/roll option isn’t available, a consumer can achieve a similar effect with a gluten-free tortilla, slice of cheese or even a piece of lettuce. It may not be the same, but if the product doesn’t lead with taste, it’s an easy choice for the consumer to make.

Parker cautioned that bakery manufacturers must also consider price points when consumers are making product comparisons. If another product has a lower price point, it might be even more appealing. Items that are priced too high won’t make it into the shopping basket at all, no matter how good they might taste.

“This is a market based on taste and permissibility, but if the price point becomes too high, people will go without,” Parker said.

The ability for gluten-free products to extend shelf life and minimize food waste also earns another positive tick for accessibility. Items that can be frozen offer an advantage over conventional products with quick sale dates. Consumers conscious of rising food prices will