Financial Mirror - 23 May 2012

FinancialMirror

â‚Ź1.00 Issue No. 981 May 23 - 29, 2012

2 NEWS

Apple still dominates world’s top brands Apple has maintained its place as the world’s most valuable brand over the past year, leading a group of technology-related companies that dominate the top 10, according to a leading study.

The iPhone and iPad maker has boosted its brand value by 19% in the past year to $183 bln, or 37% of its market capitalisation, according to the annual BrandZ study by leading brands and market-research agency Millward Brown.

Facebook, with a market value of $82 bln after its IPO last week, was the fastest climber in the top 100, seeing its brand value rise by 74% to $33.2 bln to put it in 19th place.

Seven of the top ten were technology-related firms, although McDonald’s and Coca-Cola kept their respective number four and number six rankings.

Marlboro moved up a notch to seventh place despite anti-smoking campaigns in much of the world.

Millward Brown, part of global advertising group WPP, takes as its starting point the financial value of the company or the part of the company that produces the brand, and combines it with the brand’s ability to create loyalty.

Business technology brands also featured prominently in the top 10, with IBM switching places with Google to rise to second place.

Microsoft kept its position at number five.

Mobile phone brands AT&T as number eight, Verizon as number nine, and China Mobile completed the top 10. The study added that Apple’s increasing its brand value despite the death of its visionary founder Steve Jobs in the past year was extraordinary.

Vodafone cuts sales target on weak Europe Vodafone cut a medium-term sales growth target as customers in southern Europe slashed spending and regulators upped the pressure on the world’s largest mobile operator.

The company took impairment charges of 4 bln pounds relating to its businesses in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Vodafone posted full-year results in line with forecasts and said it expected growth in adjusted operating profit in 2013 as strength in emerging markets and Germany and Turkey offset a slump in spending in Spain and Italy.

But with trading in the two big southern European markets showing few signs of improving and regulatory and foreign exchange pressures due to continue, Vodafone said it now expected organic service revenue growth in 2013 to be slightly below its previous medium-term target range of 1-4%.

Group organic service revenue for the 2012 financial year from the provision of ongoing services to customers was up 1.5%, with Europe down 1.1% and Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific up 8%.

A reluctance to spend on discretionary goods, particularly in Italy, Spain and Greece, has hit Europe’s biggest retailer Carrefour, drinks group Diageo and electricals retailer Kesa among others in recent weeks. In the telecoms sector rivals have also struggled, with net profit at Spain’s Telefonica halved in the first quarter due to torrid conditions in Italy and Spain.

Group revenue was up 1.2% to 46.4 bln pounds, in line with forecasts, but core earnings slipped 1.3% due to the tough trading and increasing regulatory pressure.

F1 owner cuts stake in $1.6 bln deal Three investment groups have bought a 21% stake in Formula One from private equity firm CVC Capital for $1.6 bln ahead of the motor racing company’s planned flotation in Singapore next month.

The deal sets a benchmark valuation of at least $7.6 bln as financial advisers begin to target cornerstone and retail investors during the pre-marketing process of the IPO. The three investors are U.S. groups Waddell & Reed and BlackRock, along with Norway’s Norges Bank Investment Management, the asset management unit of the Norwegian central bank.

CVC has had a 63.4% stake in Formula One since 2006 and has indicated it planned to cut that stake in the motor racing business, a glamour sport that attracts global television audiences of 500 mln for its fortnightly races.

Formula One, which owns the commercial rights to the sport for the next 98 years, earns money from fees paid by circuits to host races, TV income, sponsorship and corporate hospitality. Its revenues are estimated to reach $2 bln for the first time in 2012.

Goldman Sachs, UBS and Morgan Stanley are lead-managing the IPO, which could be Singapore’s biggest flotation since Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing’s Hutchison Port Holdings Trust raised $5.5 bln in early 2011.

The IPO is the long awaited public flotation of a franchise led by octogenarian billionaire Bernie Ecclestone, a shrewd negotiator who has expanded the sport from its European roots to faster growing markets.

Formula One is seen tapping into Asian appetite for luxury brands.

The IPO is set to be priced before the end of June after the company and its bankers meet with investors and fund managers to gauge demand for the offering.

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

ECB’s Constancio doesn’t expect Greece to exit euro European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said he does not expect Greece will exit the euro and urged Athens to work with Europe to remove the risk of its crisis spreading to other countries.

“I don’t think the worst is going to happen in Europe. I don’t anticipate Greece will exit ... but it doesn’t mean Greece will not face a difficult situation,” Constancio said in a panel discussion at an event held by the Institute of Regulation and Risk, North Asia, in Hong Kong.

“Europe needs deeper integration in order to make the monetary union work. Right now, the degree of interdependence is such that the pressure to move forward is strong,” Constancio said.

Twice bailed-out Greece is headed for crucial elections on June 17 that could determine if it continues to get funding from its currency partners and remains in the euro zone.

The OECD warned earlier on Tuesday that the fragile developed

world economic recovery could be blown off course if Europe fails to contain the damage from its problem debtor states.

Constancio’s comments came a day after he said in Tokyo it was too early to consider unwinding unconventional monetary policies, but it was necessary to monitor the risks posed to price stability and investment flows.

ECB policymaker Joerg Asmussen said on Monday a European growth pact and deeper political integration in the euro zone could bolster the currency union, but there must be no softening of the bloc’s fiscal pact on budget discipline.

The ECB has helped fight the debt crisis by cutting interest rates to a record low of 1%, flooding financial markets with more than 1 trln euros in three-year loans and buying struggling euro zone countries’ bonds in the secondary market.

Greek banks’ recap by Friday Greece’s four largest commercial banks will receive 18 bln euros recapitalisation funds by Friday, a senior banker at one of the four said on Tuesday. “We will get the money by Friday at the latest. Maybe we will get it tomorrow,” said the banker.

The funds are needed to recapitalise Alpha Bank, National Bank of Greece, EFG Eurobank and Piraeus Bank.

Once they receive the recapitalisation, in the form of European Financial Stability Fund bonds, the banks will be able to resume funding operations with the European Central Bank, he said.

“With this 18 bln euros in EFSF bonds we will participate again in

ECB liquidity operations,” the banker told Reuters on condition he not be identified.

The ECB suspended some Greek banks from funding operations last week because their capital was too low, forcing them to obtain highercost funding from an emergency programme at the Bank of Greece.

Greek banks saw much of their capital vanish this year because of losses in an historic bond swap that wiped out most of the value of their holdings of Greek government debt.

Recapitalising the banks is a crucial element of a bailout Greece received in March from the EU, ECB and IMF.

Greece in recession until mid-2013 Greece’s battered economy will keep shrinking until mid-2013 as fiscal belt-tightening continues to weigh while austerity fatigue may hamper the pace of reforms, the OECD projected in its May outlook.

The forecasts by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development assume Athens fully implements the EU/IMF plan of reforms under a 130 bln euro rescue package to make its economy more competitive and repair public finances.

“The economy is set to contract until mid-2013 due mainly to needed fiscal retrenchment. Growth may turn positive in the second half of 2013,” the OECD said, expecting a deeper downturn this year than the country’s central bank and the EU Commission.

The OECD sees the Greek economy shrinking 5.3% this year after a 6.9% slump in 2011. The Bank of Greece and the EU expect a contraction of 5.0 and 4.7%, respectively, this year.

While growth may return sometime in the second half of 2013, the OECD projected a 1.3% contraction for the year as a whole, extending Greece’s recession into a sixth year. The Commission’s full-year projection sees flat GDP growth.

Structural reforms should begin to bear fruit by the middle of next year while bigger use of EU structural funds would help jump start the econo-

my, the OECD said.

OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan urged Greece to stick to the programme of reforms it agreed on with its international lenders.

“Greece must stay in the euro zone. This requires the government to implement - and I stress to implement – the programme agreed with the troika and other countries,” Padoan told Reuters in an interview.

“Staying in the euro zone will be costly, but leaving the euro zone will be much more costly for Greece and for the other countries,” he said. Weak demand is expected to brake consumer inflation which is seen slowing to an annual 0.8% pace in 2012, with deflation likely to set in by next year.

Unemployment is seen at 21.2% this year, rising to 21.6% in 2013. The OECD expects higher joblessness than the EU Commission, whose spring forecasts project rates of 19.7 and 19.6% for 2012 and 2013.

The current account gap, one of Greece’s twin deficits and a sign of eroded competitiveness, is expected to narrow to 6.5% of GDP next year from an estimated 7.6% in 2012.

Looking at risks, the OECD said rising social discontent with austerity could hamper the implementation of reforms.

“A further weakening in the banking sector’s already limited capacity to support growth also poses a major risk to the outlook,” it said.

Greek exit could cost eurozone 100s of billions of euros A Greek exit from the euro zone could expose the European Central Lille. Smaller countries with less robust national central banks than the Bank and the currency bloc it seeks to protect to hundreds of billions of German Bundesbank would likely be still harder hit in relative terms. euros in losses, landing Germany and its partners with a crippling bill.

However, with fresh Greek elections called for June 17 and an antiA Greek departure would take Europe into uncharted legal waters. The bailout leftist party ahead in the polls, some within the EU’s corridors of size of the burden other euro zone states could bear gives them a powerful power wonder whether the show is worth keeping on the road. incentive to keep Greece in the currency club.

“It’s going to hurt, absolutely. But is it going to be lethal?” one EU With most of Greek’s private creditors having taken heavy writedowns diplomat said. “We have two bad choices, but one is worse than the other.” as part of the country’s second, 130 bln euros bailout, it is estimated that The ECB and national central banks are exposed to Greece in three the ECB, IMF and euro zone nations hold approaching main ways: via Greek sovereign bonds the ECB holds, 200 bln of its debt. “In the event of an exit, they via Greek collateral they hold in return for ECB loans ANALYSIS (Greece) will default. And the loss given default will and via Greece’s liabilities for transactions over the probably be very high, high enough to eliminate the ECB’s capital,” said euro zone’s TARGET2 payments system.

Andrew Bosomworth, senior portfolio manager at asset manager Pimco.

The ECB has spent about 38 bln euros on Greek government debt with “They might need recapitalisation from governments, who are not a face value of about 50 bln euros. exactly in the best position to provide additional capital.”

Under a scenario described in German weekly Der Spiegel, the euro Even once Greece had left the currency club, the costs to the rest of the zone’s EFSF bailout fund could be used in the event of a Greek default to euro zone would continue to mount as it would probably be compelled to continue funding Greece’s debt obligations to the ECB. avert a complete Greek collapse and wider contagion.

However, this would eat into the resources of the ‘firewall’, eroding its “Large-scale ECB intervention would be necessary to stabilize the capacity to help other euro zone states which might well need to be system, along with intervention from Germany, the European Stability protected if a Greek exit sparked contagion.

Mechanism (ESM), its predecessor the European Financial Stability Facility An alternative scenario could see (EFSF) and the IMF, potentially costing hundreds of billions of euros,” said the national central banks turning to Georgios Tsapouris, investment strategist at Coutts. their governments to recapitalise the The ECB, which has its own paid-in capital of 6.4 bln euros, is ECB. But going cap in hand to essentially a joint venture between the 17 euro zone national central banks politicians for money they are (NCBs). Combined, the Eurosystem has capital and reserves of 86 bln desperately short of risks undereuros. mining the ECB’s independence.

The national central banks would divide up any losses between them ECB loans to Greek banks are according to the ‘capital key’ - the ECB’s measure of countries’ stakes in its another way the central bank is financing based on economic size and population. Germany would bear the exposed but in this case, although the biggest loss, some 27% of the total.

ECB conducts these medium- and France would take a big hit too. long-term lending operations (MROs A Greek exit from the euro zone could cost the French taxpayer up to and LTROs), the funds are distributed 66.4 bln euros and saddle the country’s banking system with 20 bln euros via the national central banks and in lost loans, according to a study by the IESEG School of Management in carried on their balance sheets.

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

CYPRUS

Cyprus should seek “standby” EU funding now l It

will avoid further panic and prevent capital flight

FIONA MULLEN The announcement last week that the government had guaranteed that it would buy up to EUR 1.8 bln shares in Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki) if the bank cannot find other investors was welcome at a time when the news from Greece just kept getting worse.

As regular readers will know, I have my worries how the bank will be managed under state ownership. But it is still a better option than letting the bank fail and take the economy down with it.

However, the bailout of Laiki did little to calm the nerves of a jittery business community that is trying to calculate the bigger cost to the Cypriot economy of a possible exit of Greece from the euro.

We have already witnessed a capital crisis at one bank because of the 70-75% write-off of the EUR 5.1 bln lent by the two main banks to the Greek government.

Imagine the impact of a 7075% devaluation (I am taking Argentina as my guide) of the EUR 22.7 bln which the largest three banks have lent to the Greek private sector.

Even allowing for the fact that these banks have EUR 15 bln on deposit in Greece, the loss in the value of net assets caused by a 75% devaluation could leave the banks some EUR 5 bln short of capital.

It looks like the government has only managed to bail out Laiki this time by instituting a debt for share swap that will see the government debt/GDP ratio rise to around 80% of GDP, from less than 50% of GDP in 2008.

But it is highly unlikely that it can pull that stunt twice, especially when the sums involved will be more than twice as much.

In the event of a Greek exit, therefore, the banks will have no place to go but the government. Since I understand that China has balked at bailing out Cyprus with such a large sum (not that borrowing large amounts from non-EU countries does any good to our international

image), the government will have no place to go but to the EU. At the moment, EUR 5 bln is a small price to pay for the stability of a eurozone country.

But if the government puts off going to the EU until the crisis hits the whole of the eurozone, it would be competing with those who will have much larger claims on EU funds—Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and possibly even Italy. That is why the most sensible option is to ask the EU for an IMF-style “standby facility” now. With an IMF standby facility, money is put aside which a country can draw on in case of need.

It is not always needed so is not always used. But the very fact that it is there helps to revive market confidence and restore stability.

We have already reached the point at which the market has lost confidence.

If the number of phone calls I receive from friends panicking about the security of their deposits despite the government EUR 100,000 deposit guarantee is any guide, there is already a trickle of money flowing out of Cyprus.

The government needs to act before this becomes a flood.

A provisional EU bailout, negotiated under relative calm, should come with less stringent terms than one negotiated in panic.

It will also look considerably better to the international markets and rating agencies than a bilateral loan from a non-EU country granted with unknown strings attached.

But much more importantly, it will restore international confidence in the government’s ability to acknowledge its problems and be proactive about dealing with them.

This will keep our deposits secure and might even help us to start to draw a line under this chronic crisis.

Fiona Mullen is Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd., and a regular contributor to the Financial Mirror

House to approve ‘nationalised’ Laiki board members Parliament is expected to approve today the appointment of five officials representing the state on the board of part-nationalised Popular Bank, as part of a whirlwind bailout deal that saw the government agreeing to underwrite a 1.8 bln euro rights issue to recapitalise the bank.

The bank needs to raise the money to replenish its core tier 1 capital by June 30, in accordance with European Banking Authority demands.

The three-way deal struck by Popular’s management, the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank, was rushed through parliament in a marathon debate on Thursday night that will see an average of 12.5% in annual pay cuts in addition to redundancies and the reduction of operational costs by at least 7%.

Similar to the part nationalisation of Lloyd’s and the Royal Bank of Scotland, the government will take up the balance of unsold rights through a bond-for-equity swap, but will seek an early exit. The rights issue will first be offered to existing shareholders, then through a private placement to potential institutional investors, according to the prospectus submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The amount, equivalent to about 10% of Cyprus GDP, forms the bulk of a 1.97 bln euro capital shortfall identified by the EBA. Popular was hit heavily by a writedown on its Greek sovereign bond holdings. It reported record losses of 2.8 bln euros in its full-year results for 2011, mainly on the back of a 76% writedown in the value of some 3 bln euros in Greek debt.

The capital shortfall of the bank is a predicament for Cyprus, the euro zone’s third smallest economy, due to its own limited funding options.

Fiscal slippage and exposure of its banking system to Greece has meant the island has been shut out of international capital markets for a year. Without approval of the legislation, its cash-strapped government could have potentially faced the need to resort either to bilateral lending, or to a bailout to aid the bank.

Asked whether the need to seek a bailout had been avoided, Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly told reporters: “This gives us the ability to examine other options and we will work in the time ahead to examine every option possible to avoid the (support) mechanism.”

Wary of the experience of Greece and keen to maintain its coveted low-tax status for businesses, Cyprus has done its utmost to avoid turning to its EU partners for any financial aid. It received a 2.5 bln euro bilateral loan from Russia in late 2011, disbursed in three tranches from December 2011 to April 2012.

State underwriting of Popular will have an immediate impact, with the government appointing five of the bank’s 13 directors. Should it acquire a shareholding, the state will be entitled to appoint the majority

of its directors, who will have veto powers.

The bank recently announced a convertible bond issue, while operational cutbacks, disposal of assets and an improvement in 2012 profits should help it improve its financial strength.

Finance Minister Shiarly has reiterated in statements that the bank was “safe”, despite a run by some customers to withdraw deposits.

The House Finance Committee will be in session on Wednesday morning to approve the five state appointees that include, according to a report in Politis, former SEC chairman George Charalambous, former central bank director Andreas Philippou, Nicos Michaelas from the Coop’s Demetra Investments, former Universal Life insurance executive Spyros Episkopou and economist Loucas Marangos.

MPs were upset that while the bank urgently sought state support, that needs parliamentary approval, the bank was slow to vacate some of its board seats.

Only former interim chairman Constantinos Mylonas and executive board member Neoclis Lyssandrou resigned on Tuesday.

Two opposition MPs abstained from the vote on Thursday night, with Kyriakos Hadjiyiannis of Disy saying he was unconvinced of the viability of the deal.

The Union of Bank Employees (ETYK) also expressed its disappointment over the bill that was approved by parliament, saying that decisions were taken by both the government and the House of Representatives without consulting the bank’s employees.

This, according to ETYK is against collective labour agreements.

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Cyprus cuts Q1 budget deficit in half The government cut its budget deficit in half in the first quarter of 2012, thanks to both an increase in revenue and a reduction in expenditure.

Revenue rose in January-March by 9.5% over the year earlier to EUR 1,756.0 mln, while expenditure fell by 0.6% to EUR 1,904.0 mln.

The resulting deficit shrank to EUR 148 mln from EUR 310.7 mn in the same period of 2011.

The government aims to cut the budget deficit to less than 3.5% in 2012, from 6.3% in 2011.

Revenue will have been boosted by the 2 percentage point increase in VAT from 15% to 17% effective from March 1st.

The Statistical Service Cystat said that taxes on production and imports rose by 2.4% to EUR 602.7 mln, of which VAT rose by 4.5% to EUR 342.2 mln.

Taxes on income and wealth rose by 26.6% to EUR 540.3 mln, perhaps as a result of the new top rate of income tax at 35% as well as an increase in tax on bank interest.

Revenue from sales of goods and services dropped by 1.2% to EUR 109.5 mln.

On the expenditure side, compensation of employees (including imputed social contributions and pensions of civil servants) rose by 3.9% to EUR 672.6 mln, despite the 2% cut in gross pay and two-year freeze in inflation-linked pay rises.

Social transfers fell by 6.4% to EUR 583.6 mln, owing to cuts in entitlements, and intermediate consumption fell by 1.7% to EUR 199.5 mln.

Current transfers dropped by 22.4% to EUR 106.8 mln and capital formation (investment) fell by 9.3% to EUR 98.9 mln.

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4

CYPRUS

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

Fitch takes rating action on Cypriot banks covered bonds Fitch Ratings has downgraded and placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) Cyprus Popular Bank’s and Bank of Cyprus’s Cypriot covered bonds secured by Greek residential mortgage loans, and placed the Cypriot covered bonds secured by Cypriot residential mortgage loans on RWN. The rating actions follow the downgrade of Greece’s sovereign rating to ‘CCC’ from ‘B-’, and the revision of the Country Ceiling to ‘B-’ from ‘AAA’ on May 17.

The outstanding Cypriot covered bonds represent EUR 4.95 bln of Fitch-rated debt on aggregate, including EUR 1.75 bln of bonds issued by CPB under Programme I (Greek mortgage pool), EUR 1.5 bln of covered bonds issued by CPB under Programme II (Cypriot mortgage pool), EUR 700 mln of covered bonds issued by BoC (Greek mortgage pool) and EUR 1 bln of covered bonds issued by BoC (Cypriot mortgage pool).

Tourism drops 5.1% in April Tourism arrivals fell by 5.7% over the year earlier in April, to 189,648 in April 2012 compared with 199,762 in April 2011.

There was a fall of 12.5% in arrivals from the United Kingdom to 70,864 in April 2012 compared with 80,998 in April 2011 and a 6.7% drop in arrivals from Germany to 16,745 from 17,956 in April 2011. l Arrivals from Greece also fell by 9.8% to 14,129, from 15,668 in the same month of 2011. By contrast, there was a 30.9% leap in arrivals from Russia, now the second largest market, from 18,987 in April 2011 to 24,856 in April 2012. Arrivals from Russia rose by around 50% in both 2010 and 2011.

There was also an increase of 18.9% in arrivals from Sweden, from 8,805 to 10,472 in 2012.

Western Easter was celebrated earlier this year (April 8th) than in 2011 (April 24th), therefore the timing of Easter might have had an impact on arrivals from the UK. However, this is difficult to prove, since a political fight over the budget meant that the Statistical Service was unable to collect data for March this year. www.sapientaeconomics.com

Austria keen on doing business with Cyprus, says Fischer Austria has a great business interest in Cyprus and excellent prospects for cooperation in economic matters, the country’s President Heinz Fischer told a business forum in Vienna.

On the issue of natural gas in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone, President Fischer said the island’s natural wealth is a sound foundation for a modern economy, noting that Cyprus, as a democratic country and member of the EU, has the capability to produce energy.

In his address to the forum, President Demetris Christofias, who concluded his two-day official visit to Austria, said the recent discovery of large quantities of natural gas creates extraordinary prospects for partnerships.

Christofias said he is confident that this forum will enhance and strengthen even more trade and economic relations between Cyprus and Austria.

“The strategic geographical location and attractive business environment as well as the legal, banking and financial system, combined with the necessary infrastructure, establish Cyprus as an attractive destination for foreign investments. These benefits are reflected in the total foreign investments in the country, which have

exceeded 13 bln euros,” he said.

Referring to Cyprus assuming the Presidency of the EU on July 1, Christofias said “it is the highest European obligation that Cyprus has been asked to undertake since its accession to the EU and, undoubtedly, causes to all Cypriots feelings of anxiety, but also enthusiasm. Cyprus assumes the Presidency at a difficult period of time, but it is an opportunity for us to work constructively for a better Europe, first and foremost for the citizens”.

On the economy, he said that the world economic financial crisis has affected the Cypriot economy, too. To handle the problems, he added, “we work methodically for the speedy recovery of the Cypriot economy”, noting that “apart from fiscal purging, we are also proceeding with the implementation of development policies that take into consideration the advantages and productive capabilities that Cyprus has.”

On his part, Fischer said there is a great business interest in Cyprus on Austria’s part. Bilateral trade exceeded 200 mln euros, while exports have increased six fold in the past 15 years.

Tourist exchanges, he said, are at very good levels.

Was it the Easter effect?

Cyprus trade mission, Business Forum in China Two strategic business fora, organised by the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Cyprus China Business Association and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and sponsored by Laiki Bank, took place last week in China.

The delegation consisted of industry experts, who represented various service industry sectors mainly those of international business, banking and tourism.

The forums took place at the Diaoyutai Hotel in Beijing and at the Four Seasons Hotel in Shangai.

The aim of the conferences was to promote Cyprus as a major centre for international business and as an attractive investment destination. The main emphasis was placed on the competitive advantages of doing global business from Cyprus.

Miltos Michaelas, Group Director - International Business Banking and Russia of Laiki Bank, participated as a main speaker with the topic “Banking in Cyprus with success”.

Laiki Bank, being the only Cypriot banking institution with a representative office in China since late 2011, had the opportunity to further promote Cyprus to the Chinese participants and help establish and facilitate bridges of cooperation and strengthen the trade and business ties between China and Cyprus.

Fiduciary Association holds first event The first official event of the Cyprus Fiduciary Association was successfully held recently at Amathus Beach Hotel in Limassol.

The event commenced with short speeches by the President of the Association, George Savvides, the Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver Spyros Kokkinos, the Vice-President of the Securities and Exchange Commission Andreas Andreou, and the Senior Officer of the Ministry of Finance Kikis Paphites.

A great number of governmental and private bodies, financial and banking institutions as well as fiduciary providers who were present had

the opportunity to express their opinions and suggestions on the latest developments in the fiduciary sector and submit their questions to the panel. Upon conclusion of the discussion, a cocktail reception took place on behalf of the Association’s Board of Directors.

The first official event of the Cyprus Fiduciary Association was sponsored by the Bank of Cyprus, Laiki Bank, Barclays Wealth and Eurobank EFG. For information visit www.cfa.org.cy, or contact info@cfa.org.cy.

CIIM training for family businesses CIIM in association with award winning professor on Entrepreneurship and Family Business Dr Panikkos Poutziouris is presenting a two day training this week that is both important and beneficial for all Cyprus owner-managed family businesses. The workshop, “Strategic Succession Planning for Owner-managed Family Businesses” is being held on May 23 and 25 in Nicosia.

Despite the large number of family firms, one in ten reaches their third generation of family owner-managers. This training offers insight into the interwoven family; business and ownership issues that overshadow the survival and growth of family – owner-managed businesses and provide the steps on how to transform a stagnant family business into an entrepreneurial growth inspired business family.

The training is addressed to all founders, owners, managers, directors of family businesses. The seminar is considered by the HRDA as of ‘Vital Importance’ to Cyprus companies, therefore participants are eligible up to full subsidy (zero cost for participation).

PwC Cyprus, Abacus at the Cyprus–US Chamber in New York PwC Cyprus participated for the first time at a conference organised in New York by the Cyprus-US Chamber of Commerce, which focused on the geopolitical and economic developments in Cyprus and on how US multinational companies (MNCs) can benefit from these.

Also participating for the first time and representing Cyprus was Abacus Ltd. The conference preceded the Chamber’s Annual Awards Gala dinner.

This year, the award was presented to Charles Davidson, chairman and CEO of Noble Energy.

The conference included a panel discussion with the participation of Terry Gerhart, Vice President of Noble Energy (responsible for Noble’s activities in the Eastern Mediterranean), Nicos Chimarides, Partner in charge of Indirect Tax Services at PwC Cyprus, Constantinos Leontiou, Director on PwC’s Cyprus tax desk in New York , Constantinos Chiotis, Senior Manager at Abacus and Anastasia Xenias, Senior International Trade Specialist at US Department of Commerce. The panel was coordinated by James C. Hansel, Senior Vice President and Advisor at the Red Apple Group.

“The most important and positive step was the delimitation of the Cyprus exclusive economic zone and the applications for the second licens-

ing round in Cyprus,” said PwC’s Nicos Chimarides. “All these are strong indications that the required infrastructure is being created for the exploitation of natural gas that will be condensed and exported to various markets, providing substantial investment opportunities in the energy sector. The revenues from this process will contribute significantly to the economic development of Cyprus and together with services, the two sectors are expected to drive the local economy for many years.”

“When we talk about Cyprus-US business, we need to move away from trade and look at other figures such as foreign direct investment (including energy) and indirect investments through US affiliates, which are increasingly important and offer American MNCs wide space for growth,” added Constantinos Chiotis of Abacus. “The main driving sector for Cyprus has been services, which accounts for almost 80% of the country’s GDP. One of the main contributors to the service sector is tourism, which has stabilised in recent years. The maritime sector has shown a big increase and Cyprus is ranked 10th in world fleet and has become the largest shipmanagement centre outside of Hamburg. The main driving sector for Cyprus, however, has for a number of years been Financial Services.

“Ranging from classic front-end or specialised banking services, to professional services, shipmanagement, back-office and fiduciary services, Cyprus has concentrated heavily in the last few years in high-value added services that cater to foreign clients. Given its proximity to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, its EU MS status, its highly skilled labour and its security, Cyprus has also catered as an Headquarter centre for firms doing business in MENA. This is where US firms can concentrate, whether they are rebuilding, selling or drilling in the region”.

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

CYPRUS

5

Theme parks seek 12-month season CHRISSIE FLINT One of the fastest-growing sectors of our widely diversified tourism sector is that of the theme parks, with a new trade association recently established that includes some of the most popular water parks, leisure centres and activity retreats on the island.

Employing about 2,500 people, this sector generates about 25 mln euros in turnover from the 2 mln visitors that pass through the gates of the ten most popular member parks. But more could be done in order to provide the “outdoor consumer” with a bigger variety of activities all year round.

This is the primary goal of the Association of Leisure Parks & Attractions (CALPA), that wants to see yearround activities and more youngsters to abandon their PC games and discover a world that will provide fun and a healthy life.

The idea for the new association came from Joseph Petrou, of the Waterworld Waterpark in Ayia Napa, the biggest leisure attraction on the island with 25 international awards to its credit. The inaugural meeting was held last month in Nicosia with 11 people attending - all of whom own or manage established attractions. The new association works under the auspices of the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce (KEVE) and it is hoped that representatives from all 47 leisure parks and attractions will eventually get actively involved.

The aim of the new association is to raise the profile of the different parks both to local residents and tourists, advertising the services they offer and importantly the high standards of health and safety that are implemented as they all work to European guidelines.

Members of the new association will be working closely with the Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO) and all the major tour operators to promote their attractions which are of extra importance during the cooler spring, autumn and winter months when visitors to the island cannot enjoy the beaches. The parks are just as vital in the summer season too as they offer diverse entertainment to those visitors seeking more than a

younger people in the 20-35 age group who are keen to enjoy active weekends. He is also convinced that it is important to encourage children to be more active.

“We have a major problem developing in Cyprus with one in five children now clinically ‘obese’ and for many, life is nothing more than television and the various computer games. What we offer is for these children to enjoy the outdoors and get active in a safe environment which in turn will reverse the downhill trend in fitness levels seen in all our schools,” Onoufriou said.

He believes that it is vital for schoolchildren to learn about the island’s natural heritage and believes that relaxing together as a family and enjoying quality time has its bonuses too.

“The pace of life has really increased in the past decade and ‘family time’ is now a luxury with both parents working. Our member parks are the perfect places for families to try a new sport or experience which will also have a positive impact on the family as a whole.”

The companies which have joined the association are all closely linked to the weather and whilst the water parks open mainly for the summer season, the animal and theme parks are open all year round, with a core of permanent staff which is supplemented by well-trained part time staff, many of whom are college students.

“I like to employ many seasonal part-timers who are students because I appreciate their need to gain valuable work experience for their CVs which has always been something that is difficult to achieve in Cyprus,” admits Onoufriou. “I have found that they are always hard-working and enthusiastic and I find it very rewarding to see how quickly they gain confidence as they put their training into practice.”

Want children to get outdoors more

Tepak grows up: New era for CUT STAVROS KONIOTIS The Cyprus University of Technology (CUT), also known as “Tepak”, recently gained its autonomy and has already established itself as an integral part of the Limassol community.

The state university was set up in the coastal town in order to decentralise from the larger University of Cyprus in Nicosia, and one of the first challenges it has faced is to adapt to the current financially difficult period.

Being the first chief executive is “a great honour and a big responsibility”, said CUT Rector Elpida Keravnou Papailiou, adding that much is expected from the first university board.

She acknowledged the constant support from the Limassol Municipality enabling the university to establish itself in the centre of the city. “Despite difficulties, the university’s presence has changed Limassol, it has brought life back to the historic Limassol centre”, she said, adding that “a university should be a living cell of the city and CUT has achieved this”.

As regards the new challenges, Keravnou said that budget cuts due to austerity have meant that the Senate and CUT board face new challenges over their four year term, as timetables for development projects are affected.

One of the main priorities is building a university campus, the master plan of which is to be presented to the CUT board this month. Work on the campus will probably start by the beginning of 2013. Keranvou explained that having to rent buildings is a burden on its finances so the university administration has proceeded to renegotiate the rental agreements in place in an effort to reduce costs.

At the same time, the implementation of a new rental model for student housing has been decided, so that students rent directly from the owner and the university only acts as an intermediary.

Keravnou estimates that by building the Campus and gradually reducing the number of buildings being rented, current difficulties regarding space will be overcome.

Establishing a School of Fine and Applied Arts and restructuring the current School of Applied Arts and Communication to a School of Communication and Media are within priorities.

Research and development is also important for CUT. Keravnou said that “we need to enhance our efforts to attract external funding”, adding that “discussion on the creation of new institutions, such as research institutes, is already underway”.

The fact that the university has attracted significant internal and external funding in a particularly competitive environment, shows that its scientific reputation has started to be recognised both in Cyprus and abroad.

According to Keravnou, another challenge is the operation of a Department of Rehabilitation Sciences. Speech therapy will be the first programme expected to start in September 2013.

The first two PhDs are to be awarded this year, which is a sign of the rapid growth CUT has seen in a short period of time, she noted, adding that the aim is for PhDs to be offered in all CUT departments in order to be recognised as a research oriented institution.

During the Cyprus EU Council presidency due to begin on July 1, CUT will host the Fall Summit of the Senate and the Board of the Euromediterranean University, of which it is a member.

CUT has submitted a proposal to create a Southeastern Mediterranean network on energy and environment matters, Keravnou said, expressing the hope that during the Summit the network will be established. (CNA)

beach holiday. This aspect is critical to the CTO’s efforts to promote Cyprus as a 12-month destination.

Members of the new association also believe that united, they will have a stronger voice when tackling the government over legal issues and working with the CTO. Promoting Cyprus as an exciting holiday destination is critical as an increasing number of visitors seek interesting places, while discerning parents are attracted to activities that have an educational value.

Christian Onoufriou, vice chairman of the association and General Manager of the Santa Marina Retreat in Parekklisia near Limassol, firmly believes that the association can do much to help local residents, especially

6

COMMENT

EDITORIAL

Cyprus Airways gets it right… at last!

There is hope for our national carrier after all.

The troubled airline’s management has submitted a counter-proposal to the trade unions and the Ministry of Labour mediation service that foresees 250 redundancies and wage cuts of 5% to 19%, with lower-paid staff getting smaller reductions and the highest-paid dishing out the most. The latter category involves management and senior flight crew with annual incomes of more than 120,000 euros.

Although the unions will, as anticipated, fight the wage cuts, they should also realise that there is no other way to keep the airline afloat. The pay reductions, fewer benefits and increased work hours will save the Flying Moufflon some 17 mln euros, making it more attractive to potential buyers, such as the Canadian Triple Five Group.

The latter seems to have lost interest in the airline, for now, unless if it is waiting for the finances to be put in order and then to make its final move, appearing as a white knight and winning the bankrupt government some more votes in time for the elections next February.

Of course, the unions had initially been excited about the prospect of a new investor coming in, not realizing that redundancies and pay cuts would be top on the agenda. Perhaps the deal involves the current management making the necessary sacrifices and the Ghermezians buying a lean operation.

Whatever the outcome, the airline could have introduced these measures a year ago, which would have made it much more competitive during the winter months and well-prepared for the critical summer period. If Triple Five gets its hands on CAIR, then it will also be looking to better utilise the precious slots at Heathrow, probably for pilgrim travel from Canada and the U.S. to the Holy Lands, while working out a deal with the Turks to lift the flyover-embargo for flights from Russia will bode better for the company and its staff.

All that is left is for young blood to be recruited, especially the kind that are more customer friendly and smile more often.

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FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

P. Demetriades was right (and wrong) about Germany leaving the Euro DR. JIM LEONTIADES Cyprus International Institute of Management Panicos Demetriades famously suggested some time ago that Germany should leave the Euro zone.

He has since retracted this statement on assuming his position as head of the Central Bank of Cyprus.

Nevertheless. However, his suggestion makes a lot of sense. He is not the only one to suggest that the Euro zone might be better off without Germany.

One important reason has to do with the exchange rate. Prior to joining the Euro, Germany’s national currency, the Deutschmark, appreciated steadily, reflecting that country’s efficiency and competitiveness. From the early 1970s until Germany joined the Euro zone, the Deutschmark nearly doubled in value relative to the U.S. dollar (from an exchange rate of 2.6 to the dollar in 1972 to 1.65 in 1998).

Exactly the reverse can be said of the southern European countries now at the centre of the financial crisis. From 1972 to 1998 the Greek drachma depreciated steadily – going from an exchange rate of 37 drachmas to the dollar to 400 to the dollar. The currencies of Italy, Spain, Portugal experienced analogous depreciations ,though not quite as steep as Greece. In all these cases, a change in value of their currencies (steady depreciation) was the main tool available to these countries for maintaining competitiveness relative to more productive trading partners, such as Germany.

Joining the Euro zone has meant putting the efficient and relatively competitive economies together with those less efficient and less competitive into the same currency basket. All now have the Euro as a common currency but their levels of productivity and competitiveness remain very different. The lower productivity and competitiveness of the southern European countries tend to pull the exchange rate of the Euro down, while the greater efficiency and productivity of Germany pulls it in the opposite direction.

CHANGES IN COMPETITIVENESS If Germany should leave the Euro, the exchange value of that currency for the remaining countries would undoubtedly fall –making the tourism and exports of these countries much more competitive. Goldman

Sachs has estimated that Greece needs a real depreciation in its exchange rate of 30% to restore competitiveness.

On leaving the Euro, Germany’s new currency would undoubtedly rise. In Euro terms it would be closer to 1.80 dollars to the Euro instead of the present 1.3 dollars per Euro. German exports would increase in price.

Germany today is enjoying the trade and employment benefits of a lower exchange rate due to the low productivity (and political disruption) of Greece and the other peripheral countries.

It is not by accident that Germany’s exports and economy expand particularly well when political and economic problems in other Euro zone countries bring about a decline in the Euro. The German GDP increased at a 2% annual rate during the first quarter of this year. Nearly all other countries experienced a decline or remained static.

In short, Germany’s departure and a drop in the value of the Euro would undoubtedly help Greece and the other peripheral countries regain much of their competitiveness. If just Greece leaves and Germany stays, the other peripheral countries would still have the same competitiveness problem.

BUT IF GERMANY LEAVES? But if Germany leaves – who and what would hold the countries remaining in the Euro together? It is sad but true that only Germany has the vision (it may be flawed, but its still a vision), the will and the financial resources to act as leader. If Germany leaves, what other country or countries could take its place? Those remaining comprise a collection of economically weak and politically divided countries.

Even with Germany inside, there has been great difficulty in pulling together the still inadequate funds represented in the Euro zone rescue mechanism. Without Germany, it is difficult to conceive the remaining countries contributing either the resources or the political will required to maintain a common currency.

Of the two possibilities, the prospect of Greece leaving the Euro zone is the more realistic. This would pose the bigger problem for Cyprus. What would come next is still a mystery.

Of course, the position of Cyprus today , while not good, is much better than that of Greece. Our debt is much lower and there is still a lot of “fat” which can be cut, mainly in the public sector. If you listen carefully you can hear the knives being sharpened.

Dealing with recession M&As during financial crisis The global financial crisis has brought a number of businesses, small, medium and even large ones in a very undesirable position, while many companies, local and global, are attempting to survive in this new world order. Cyprus has not been left unaffected and tax specialist Eurofast Taxand is offering solutions which can effectively assist a business not only for its survival but also for its welfare.

The difficulties that the financial crisis has brought can be tackled with notable legal and tax means as mergers, reorganisation, acquisitions and joint ventures. Companies which are facing problems of cash flow, but even companies that are trying to stay alive, can take advantage of the best possible tax efficiency with internal reorganisations, mergers and acquisitions. A significant increase has already been observed in the number of companies that are considering and implement this concept.

The merger and acquisition of companies aims generally to the union of companies for the creation of a more powerful and stable structure of companies, while proper planning can produce very favorable results as the reduction of risk and the efficiency of tax. M&As can also be used for business expansion into new markets, with new prospects, while internal reorganisation can restructure the internal activities of a business for

greater efficiency and significant cost savings. Similar outcomes can also result from a joint venture.

Creating a joint venture can turn a difficult, from an economic nature of view, project feasible since with a joint venture the funding may be divided between independent parties and the implementation of the project can become a reality. Eurofast can provide tax and business advice as well as guidance on subjects of mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures, both on a local and international level through offices in the southeastern Europe and our exceptional network of external associates.

With headquarters in Nicosia and offices in Athens, Thessaloniki, Sofia, Bucharest, Belgrade, Podgoritsa, Skopje, Pristina, Banja Luka, Sarajevo, Zagreb, Cairo and Alexandria, Eurofast is the only company of professional services with a sngle, united administration in the southeastern Europe.

Eurofast currently employs more than 220 people in the area, providing accounting services and payroll services, acquisitions and mergers as well as cross-border expansions advice.

If you are interested to learn more whether a merger, acquisition, reorganisation or joint venture might suit your business, contact Eurofast at info@eurofast.eu

In-person meetings key to succes Although important relationships are globally distributed, business leaders say they want more collaboration in person when it comes to activities such as brainstorming for new ideas, managing a specific crisis or making presentations. This is among the findings from an Economist Intelligence Unit survey, “Business leaders’ views on interaction”.

While the primary function of meetings is to build relationships with customers, 89% of respondents said communications where the parties can see and respond to each other benefit internal business functions such as employee coaching and training as well as communications with partners and customers. An additional 43% of respondents use meetings to discuss and resolve major issues with customers such as a service or product failure or dissatisfaction with the partnership. Motivations for expanding these meetings also include contract renewals, brainstorming sessions and being introduced to other clients or customers within the organisation.

The EIU survey, sponsored by Cisco, explores the challenges of global enterprise collaboration and the perceived value of different types of business communications, including telephone, instant messaging, email and conferencing.

The 862 global senior executives surveyed identified a number of key trends in business communications. These include: 1. Face time is a priority. When it comes to different stakeholders, business leaders attach greater importance to in-person meetings with customers than with colleagues, partners or suppliers. More than half

(54%) said they see meetings with customers as having the greatest impact on their business. This need for face time relates to how most respondents (56%) ranked the most important aspect of business collaboration: determining audience engagement and focus.

2. Email is getting in the way. Business leaders in all categories cite email as the primary tool used in collaborating with colleagues, partners and customers (as much as 66% for senior managers) with the telephone identified as the second most-used business communication tool (25%).

However, neither text nor voice alone was cited as the best option in communicating critical information in a business.

3. Motivations for more meetings differ regionally. Asked to pick their strongest motivation for meetings with colleagues outside of their own office, respondents from Asia-Pacific and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are most interested in resolving a problem quickly.

However, US business leaders are motivated more by cost reductions in meetings with colleagues.

4. Industry dictates motivations as well. In meeting with business partners or suppliers, respondents in the consumer goods industry are most likely to meet face to face to give or receive direction, while business leaders in energy/transportation, technology and services are most likely to meet to generate better long-term relationships. Respondents in other industries are most likely to meet with partners to be motivated or inspired.

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

COMMENT 7

Who is Responsible for the Greek Tragedy?

MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN SEATTLE – Greece is following the road taken by several other crisis-ridden emerging economies over the past 30 years. Indeed, as I argued earlier this year, there are stunning similarities between this once-proud eurozone member and Argentina prior to its default in 2001. With an equally traumatic implosion – economic, financial, political, and social – now taking place, we should expect heated debate about who is to blame for the deepening misery that millions of Greeks now face.

There are four suspects – all of them involved in the spectacular boom that preceded what will unfortunately prove to be an even more remarkable bust.

Many will be quick to blame successive Greek governments led by what used to be the two dominant political parties, New Democracy on the right and PASOK on the left. Eager to borrow their country to prosperity, they racked up enormous debts while presiding over a dramatic loss of competitiveness and, thus, growth potential. Some even sought to be highly economical with the truth, failing to disclose the true extent of their budgetary slippages and indebtedness.

Having borrowed far too much after joining the eurozone in 2001, New Democracy and PASOK let their citizens down when adjustments and reforms were needed after the 2008 global financial crisis. An initial phase of denial was followed by commitments that could not be met (indeed, that some argued should not be met, owing to faulty program design). The resulting erosion in Greece’s international standing amplified the hardship that citizens were starting to feel.

Hold on, I hear you say. For every debt incurred there is a credit extended. You are right.

Greece’s private lenders were more than happy to pour money into the country, only to shirk their burden-sharing responsibilities when the artificial boom could no longer be sustained. The over-lending was so widespread that at one point it drove down the yield differential between Greek and German bonds to just six basis points – a ridiculously low level for two countries that differ so fundamentally in terms of economic management and financial conditions.

Overeager creditors willingly underwrote this absurd risk premium.

Yet, when it became abundantly clear that Greece’s debt burden had been taken to insolvency levels, creditors delayed the moment of truth.

They dragged their feet when it came to the critical agreement on orderly burden-sharing (that is, acceptance of a “haircut” on private-sector claims on Greece). And the longer they did that, the more money left Greece without any intention of returning.

But neither the Greek government nor its private creditors acted in a vacuum. Both took comfort from the political cover provided by the European unification effort – an historic initiative aimed at securing the continent’s well-being through closer economic and political integration on the basis of credible rules and effective institutions.

On both counts – rules and institutions – the eurozone fell short of what was required. Remember, the large core economies (France and Germany) were among the first members to breach the budgetary rules that were established when the euro was launched. And European institutions proved toothless when it came to enforcing compliance. All of this served to sustain the fantasy world that both Greece and its creditors happily inhabited for far too long.

Europe also failed to react properly when it became obvious that Greece was starting to teeter. European government counterparts failed to converge on a common assessment of the country’s problems, let alone cooperate on a proper response. While they grudgingly loosened their purse strings to support Greece, the underlying motives were too shortsighted, and the resulting approach was strategically flawed and abysmally coordinated.

Finally, there was the International Monetary Fund, the institution charged with safeguarding global financial stability and being a trusted adviser to individual countries. It appears that the IMF succumbed too easily to political pressures during both the boom and the bust. Political expediency seems to have trumped analytical robustness, undermining both the Fund’s direct beneficial role and its function as a policy and financial catalyst.

On the surface, each of the four suspects has an individual case for arguing that the finger of blame should be pointed elsewhere. They could even argue that, at worst, they were uninformed accomplices. But that is not really right.

None of the four can avoid the reality that Greece’s collapse would not have occurred had they not been complacent during the boom and, subsequently, fulfilled their responsibilities during the bust so poorly.

They sucked each other into a sense of false prosperity, only to trip each other up during the inevitable downturn. Now, one hopes, all four will be held properly accountable by their stakeholders and undertake serious self-evaluation.

Most likely, they will end up getting off too easy, especially compared to the real victims of this historic tragedy – the most vulnerable segments of the Greek population, who will become much worse off, today and for many years to come, as jobs disappear, savings evaporate, and livelihoods are destroyed. And they may not be alone. Millions of others may experience collateral damage, as financial contagion risks spreading to other European countries and to the global economy as a whole.

In a fairer world, these vulnerable citizens would be entitled to claw back the salaries, official privileges, and bonuses that the four parties to blame enjoyed for too long. In the world as it is, they are a compelling lesson for the future.

Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide. © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org

Only the ECB can make it a bank run JAMES SAFT A spreading bank run could hasten Greece’s exit from the euro zone but it certainly doesn’t have to end that way.

It is far less clear what the impact would be should the wave of withdrawals accelerate in other peripheral states such as Spain or Portugal, which are further from outright revolt over German-led austerity, and which, due to their sheer size, will enjoy a vastly improved negotiating position.

Greeks have been withdrawing hundreds of millions of euros of deposits from their banks in recent days, driven by a rational but dangerously self-reinforcing fear that a Greek exit from the euro will leave them holding far less valuable new drachma.

That fear, though, is predicated on a shaky notion: that the players in the drama will do what they have said they would.

Greek depositors are worried that their politicians will repudiate the terms of the bailout and that the ECB and European authorities will, ultimately, cut them off, either directly or by refusing to accept dubious collateral in exchange for fresh euros.

That would bring down the Greek banking system, or most of it, and force Greek authorities to impose capital controls. Cue Spanish, Italian and Portuguese depositors, who might follow suit and start to withdraw their own deposits, putting massive amounts of collateral into the hands of the ECB and their own central banks.

The betting on this one comes down to whether you think European officials will stick with their principles or act in their own best interests, always a legitimate and uncertain question. The ECB could, at any point it chooses, pull the plug on the Greek banking system by refusing to accept the sort of bad collateral now being offered. A prudent act, utterly within their rights and a highly destructive one.

Greek depositors only have as much power as the ECB chooses to give them. The simple answer is to take more bad collateral and keep negotiating. Even if the troika elects to punish Greece by stopping payments to it there is nothing that would stop the ECB from carrying on providing liquidity to the Greek banking system. Remember too that the amount of money involved is not huge, especially in proportion to the potential damage caused by a bank-run-caused exit of Greece from the euro.

CONTAGION RISK?

Hollande or Insurrection?

ZAKI LA´DI PARIS – For better or worse, Europe is now engaged in an insurrection against the fiscal pact condemning European Union member countries to austerity without growth. Will it take a military coup to acknowledge that the situation is untenable? Or will the election of François Hollande as French President shift Germany’s uncompromising stance?

The prospect of reducing public deficits to less than 3% of GDP is unrealistic in both the Netherlands and Spain. Unless it is ready to take punitive measures now, the EU will have to give these countries additional leeway – mindful that the European public tends to respond negatively every time it is consulted. In Greece, the recent election has not yielded a majority coalition capable of taking ownership of the austerity plan, making yet another popular vote likely.

Ireland is fortunately less worrying, but the odds that the fiscal pact will be approved in a popular referendum are becoming longer. Granted, the removal of the unanimity clause provides a way to avoid this obstacle and allow for the pact’s implementation. But this solves nothing, because neither France nor Italy will ratify the pact. Even Germany’s Social Democrats, whose support Chancellor Angela Merkel needs to secure ratification in the Bundestag, appear to have granted only conditional support.

Germany is accused of monetarist dogmatism and of being responsible for accentuating the economic asymmetry between it and its eurozone neighbors. Its relatively good economic health allows it to finance its debt at less than the rate of inflation, while other European states finance theirs at rates that are three points higher than inflation.

With Hollande’s defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy, Merkel has virtually no support in the eurozone besides that of Finland. The tandem with Sarkozy was very useful to the Germans in advancing their views, while Sarkozy accepted his role in “Merkozy” in order to maintain France’s key role in Europe’s crisis management. In terms of form, traditionally profederalist Germany thus aligned with France’s longstanding insistence on a Europe of governments. But, in terms of substance – austerity versus urgently needed economic growth – France lost.

Hollande is determined to change course. He believes deeply in the centrality to Europe of the Franco-German relationship. Yet he is enough of a realist to see that this relationship is significantly unbalanced, owing to France’s economic decline, and that Sarkozy’s endorsement of German preferences was not worth the appearance of

being at the heart of the decision.

Hollande’s victory has already sharply redefined European politics.

Almost all European governments are counting on him to change the balance of power. Rarely has a French election had such repercussions in Europe. Will he succeed?

The four proposals that Hollande has put forward are so consensual that it would be difficult for Germany to oppose them: use of nondisbursed resources from the EU Structural Funds, recapitalization of the European Investment Bank, creation of project bonds, and taxation of financial transactions. Significantly, two proposals that were most likely to meet German opposition – Eurobonds to pool risk and the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a bank that could borrow from the European Central Bank – were removed from his draft memorandum to European leaders.

Despite the gravity of the situation, Hollande has three advantages: excessive austerity is unrealistic, given growing social opposition; public deficits are only a small part of Europe’s problems (and are not necessarily the source of the crisis); and a strong consensus has emerged outside of Germany to change tack. Moreover, during the upcoming G8 summit, Hollande will enjoy the support of the United States, which worries that deflation in Europe would slow its own economic recovery.

Germany has historically never benefitted from isolation. It is probably on the basis of this historical-political argument that Hollande will be able to bring about a German shift.

Of course, one might argue that the emerging European consensus is quite ambiguous. Some favor stimulating growth through investment projects, while others emphasize structural reform. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that Hollande’s proposals will quickly revive moribund economies. Indeed, it is blatantly obvious that in a country like France, reduction in public spending – especially the state’s often-unproductive operating expenditures – is a prerequisite for recovery.

Yet Europe’s problems, by definition, cannot be solved simultaneously. And what is not at all ambiguous is the public’s rejection of austerity – or, for that matter, financial markets’ increasing concern that long-term growth could suffer. That is a rare and powerful alliance, and one that Europe’s political leaders ignore at their peril.

Zaki Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences-Po). © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org

That said, if things get worse in Greece, as they are almost certain to, depositors elsewhere in the euro zone may follow suit and withdraw money from banks in weaker countries.

Deposits in Italian and Portuguese banks have dropped, relatively gently, though Italian deposits are still near earlier peaks.

More withdrawals will be no surprise, whatever you think of the game of chicken between Greece and the rest of Europe.

The opportunity cost of moving money is low, and even if the money is not deposited elsewhere, very low interest rates impose little penalty on cautious savers stuffing bank notes into mattresses.

The logic is even less strong for a bank run in Spain, for example, forcing a disorganized euro exit. So long as Spain, or Portugal, is making minimal progress on reforms - and they are doing better than that now - there is even less incentive for the ECB to become spooked by a rush of questionable collateral onto its books.

And if Spanish bank funds flee, the math will be the same for the ECB but the scale will be far different and argues further for forbearance rather than retribution. Something on the lines of a third of Greek deposits, or a bit more than 70 billion euros, have left its system. Extrapolate that to the Spanish system and you are looking at more than 500 billion euros.

That could spook Germany and the ECB, but more likely it brings Europe into a sort of de facto fiscal union, in which the affairs, credits and debits of the players are so intertwined as to utterly resist detangling. The ECB will not end the euro on its own authority, and in the event of a huge bank run it will probably prove impossible for politicians to make the decision to pull the plug quickly. That will leave the south owing the north even more, but the north having less ability to collect or dodge. Some sort of common bond issuance or fiscal union might actually be hastened by a bank run, ironically enough.

If you owe the bank a million, the bank owns you; if it is a half a trillion euros, the situation is somewhat reversed.

None of this is to say that the ECB or euro zone authorities won’t become so exasperated with Greece that they pull the plug. It may come to that, and it’s fair to say that the odds have narrowed, but we are not quite there yet.

(James Saft is a Reuters columnist.

The opinions expressed are his own)

10 WORLD

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

The Death of Inflation Targeting JEFFREY FRANKEL CAMBRIDGE – It is with regret that we announce the death of inflation targeting. The monetary-policy regime, known as IT to friends, evidently passed away in September 2008. The lack of an official announcement until now attests to the esteem in which it was held, its usefulness as an ornament of credibility for central banks, and fears that there might be no good candidates to succeed it as the preferred anchor for monetary policy.

Inflation targeting was born in New Zealand in March 1990.

Admired for its transparency, and thus for facilitating accountability, it achieved success there, and soon in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Israel. It subsequently became popular in Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Colombia, and Peru) and among other developing countries (including South Africa, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey).

One reason that IT gained such wide acceptance as the monetarypolicy anchor of choice was the demise of its predecessor, exchangerate targeting, in the currency crises of the 1990’s. Pegged exchange rates had come under fatal speculative attack in many of these countries, whose authorities thus needed something new to anchor the public’s expectations concerning monetary policy. Inflation targeting was in the right place at the right time.

In the early 1980’s, prior to the reign of exchange-rate targeting, the fashion was money-supply targeting, the brainchild of the monetarist Milton Friedman. But that rule succumbed rather quickly to violent money-demand shocks, though Friedman’s general argument – that a credible commitment to low inflation requires favoring rules over discretion – remains very influential.

Inflation targeting was best known as a rule that instructed central banks to set – and try their best to attain – a target range for the annual rate of change of the consumer price index (CPI). Close cousins included targeting the price level instead of the inflation rate, and targeting core inflation (the CPI minus volatile food and energy prices).

Small business hiring takes step back in April Small business hiring in the U.S. slowed considerably in the April and employees saw a reduction in their hours, an independent survey showed, adding to signs of weakening in labour market conditions.

Businesses added 40,000 new jobs, a step back from the 75,000 positions created in March, according to Intuit, a payrolls processing firm. The average workweek for small business employees dipped 0.14%.

The pull back in hiring by small businesses is the latest indication that job growth is losing some momentum. Nonfarm employment increased 120,000 in March, the least amount in five months, with the jobless rate dropping to 8.2% — largely as some unemployed people gave up the search for work.

The weak payrolls number last month was largely seen as payback after an abnormally warm winter. Payroll growth had averaged 246,000 a month between December and February.

The survey showed wages for small business employees edged up 0.1% or $3 to $2,680. However, that is equivalent to an annual salary of $33,200, meaning that many of the small business employees are working part-time.

MANAGEMENT TIP OF THE WEEK:

Stop email overload There are ways to cope with the email overload that could be weighing down your work day, says Harvard Business Review in its regular Management Tip that offers quick, practical management tips and ideas at http://www.hbr.org.

“Do you have thousands of messages in your inbox, and receive hundreds more every day? Welcome to the club: Instead of being overwhelmed by email, take these steps to regain control: 1. Turn off the spigot. Unsubscribe to irrelevant e-newsletters and turn off Facebook or Twitter notifications. Consider whether colleagues are copying you on too many emails. If so, ask to only be updated with final decisions.

2. Keep a clean inbox. It’s easier to handle incoming messages without clutter staring back at you. Create a new folder called “Old Inbox” and put all your messages in there. Then when new email comes in, sort it right away.

3. Take an occasional break. Disconnect from all things digital once in a while. Take an email sabbatical next time you go on vacation.”

- This week’s management tip was adapted from “Stop Email Overload” by Amy Gallo.

There were also proponents of flexible inflation targeting, who held that it was fine to put some weight on real GDP growth in the short run, so long as there was a clear longer-term target for CPI inflation.

But some felt that if the definition of IT were stretched too far, it would lose its meaning.

Regardless of the form it took, IT began to receive some heavy blows a few years ago (analogous to the crises that hit exchange-rate targets in the 1990’s). Perhaps the biggest setback hit in September 2008, when it became clear that central banks that had been relying on IT had not paid enough attention to asset-price bubbles.

Central bankers had told themselves that they were giving asset markets all of the attention that they deserved, by specifying that housing prices and equity prices could be taken into account to the extent that they implied information regarding goods inflation. But this escape clause proved insufficient: when the global financial crisis hit (suggesting, at least in retrospect, that monetary policy had been too loose from 2003 to 2006), it was neither preceded nor followed by an upsurge in inflation.

That the boom-bust cycle could occur without inflation should not have come as a surprise. After all, the same thing happened when asset-price bubbles ended in crashes in the United States in 1929, Japan in 1990, and Thailand and Korea in 1997. And the hope of longtime US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that monetary easing could clean up the mess in the aftermath of such a crash proved wrong.

While the lack of response to asset bubbles was probably IT’s biggest failing, another major setback was inappropriate responses to supply shocks and terms-of-trade shocks. An economy is healthier if monetary policy responds to an increase in the world prices of its exported commodities by tightening enough to cause the currency to appreciate. But CPI targeting instead tells the central bank to tighten policy in response to an increase in the world price of imported commodities – exactly the opposite of accommodating the adverse shift in the terms of trade.

It is widely suspected, for example, that the reason for the European Central Bank’s otherwise puzzling decision to raise interest

rates in July 2008, as the world was sliding into the worst recession since the 1930’s, was that oil prices were just then reaching an all-time high. Oil prices are given substantial weight in the CPI, so stabilizing the CPI when dollar-denominated oil prices go up requires euro appreciation vis-à-vis the dollar.

One candidate to succeed IT as the preferred nominal monetarypolicy anchor has lately received some enthusiastic support in the economic blogosphere: nominal GDP targeting. The idea is not new. It had been a candidate to succeed money-supply targeting in the 1980’s, since it did not share the latter’s vulnerability to so-called velocity shocks.

Nominal GDP targeting was not adopted then, but now it is back.

Its fans point out that, unlike IT, it would not cause excessive tightening in response to adverse supply shocks. Nominal GDP targeting stabilizes demand – the most that can be asked of monetary policy. An adverse supply shock is automatically divided equally between inflation and real GDP, which is pretty much what a central bank with discretion would do anyway.

A dark-horse candidate is product-price targeting, which would focus on stabilizing an index of producer prices rather than an index of consumer prices. Unlike IT, it would not dictate a perverse response to terms-of-trade shocks.

Supporters of both nominal GDP targeting and product-price targeting claim that IT sometimes gave the public the misleading impression that it would stabilize the cost of living, even in the face of supply shocks or terms-of trade-shocks, over which it had no control.

Inflation targeting is survived by the gold standard, an elderly distant relative. Although some eccentrics favor a return to gold as the monetary anchor, most would prefer to leave this relic of another age to its peaceful retirement.

Jeffrey Frankel is Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University. © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org

A Breakthrough Opportunity for Global Health JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ NEW YORK – Every year, millions of people die from preventable and treatable diseases, especially in poor countries. In many cases, lifesaving medicines can be cheaply massproduced, but are sold at prices that block access to those who need them. And many die simply because there are no cures or vaccines, because so little of the world’s valuable research talent and limited resources is devoted to addressing the diseases of the poor.

This state of affairs represents a failure of economics and law that urgently needs to be corrected. The good news is that there are now opportunities for change, most promisingly through an international effort headed by the World Health Organization that would begin to fix the broken intellectual-property regime that is holding back the development and availability of cheap drugs.

Two main problems limit the availability of medicines today. One is that they are very costly; or, more accurately, the price charged for them is very high, though the cost of producing them is but a fraction of that amount. Second, drug development is geared toward maximizing profit, not social benefit, which skews efforts directed at the creation of medicines that are essential to human welfare.

Because the poor have so little money to spend, drug companies, under current arrangements, have little incentive to do research on the diseases that afflict them.

It doesn’t have to be this way. Drug companies argue that high prices are necessary to fund research and development. But, in the United States, it is actually the government that finances most healthrelated research and development – directly, through public support (National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation), and indirectly, through public purchases of medicine, both in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. Even the part that is not government-financed is not a conventional market; most individuals’ purchases of prescription medicines are covered by insurance.

Government finances health-care research because improved medicines are a public good. The resulting knowledge benefits everyone by stopping epidemics and limiting the economic and human toll of widespread illness. Efficiency requires sharing research as widely as possible as soon as it is available. Thomas Jefferson compared knowledge to candles: when one is used to light another, it does not diminish the light of the first. On the contrary, everything becomes brighter.

Yet, in America and most of the world, drug prices are still exorbitant and the spread of knowledge is tightly limited. That is because we have created a patent system that gives innovators a temporary monopoly over what they create, which encourages them to hoard their knowledge, lest they help a competitor.

While this system does provide incentives for certain kinds of research by making innovation profitable, it allows drug companies to drive up prices, and the incentives do not necessarily correspond to

social returns. In the health-care sector, it may be more profitable to devote research to a “me-too” drug than to the development of a treatment that really makes a difference. The patent system may even have adverse effects on innovation, because, while the most important input into any research is prior ideas, the patent system encourages secrecy.

A solution to both high prices and misdirected research is to replace the current model with a government-supported prize fund.

With a prize system, innovators are rewarded for new knowledge, but they do not retain a monopoly on its use. That way, the power of competitive markets can ensure that, once a drug is developed, it is made available at the lowest possible price – not at an inflated monopoly price.

Fortunately, some US lawmakers are taking a strong interest in this approach. The Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act, a congressional bill introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders, is just such an initiative. His bill also contains an important provision aimed at encouraging opensource research, which would move the current research model away from secrecy toward sharing.

But, globally, our innovation system needs much bigger changes.

The WHO’s efforts to encourage broad reforms at the international level are crucial. This spring, the WHO released a report that recommends solutions similar to those proposed in the US Senate bill, but on a global level.

Importantly, the report, “Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries,” recommends a comprehensive approach, including mandatory funding contributions from governments for research on developing countries’ health needs; international coordination of health-care priorities and implementation; and a global observatory that would monitor where needs are greatest. In late May, the international community will have a chance to begin implementing these ideas at the WHO World Health Assembly – a moment of hope for public health around the world.

Reforming our innovation system is not just a matter of economics. It is, in many cases, a matter of life and death. It is therefore essential to de-link R&D incentives from drug prices, and to promote greater sharing of scientific knowledge.

For America, the Sanders bill marks important progress. For the world, the WHO’s recommendations represent a once-in-ageneration opportunity to remedy a long-standing and egregious inequity in health care, and, more broadly, to set a model for governance of global public goods befitting an era of globalization. We cannot afford to let this opportunity pass us by.

Joseph E. Stiglitz is University Professor at Columbia University, a Nobel laureate in economics, and the author of Freefall: Free Markets and the Sinking of the Global Economy. © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org

Ã∏ª∞&∞°√ƒ∞ EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A

www.financialmirror.com

AÚ. 865

∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

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ÀÔ‚¿ıÌÈÛË ∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘, §·˚΋˜ Î·È ∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋˜

ΥπÞ αρνητική παρακολούθηση έθεσε ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ Fitch Ratings τισ µακροπρÞθεσµεσ αξιολογήσεισ των κυπριακών τραπεζών Κύπρου, Λαϊκή και Ελληνική, επικαλούµενοσ το γεγονÞσ, Þπωσ σηµειώνει, Þτι οι κυπριακέσ τράπεζεσ παραµένουν ιδιαίτερα ευαίσθητεσ στουσ αυξηµένουσ κινδύνουσ στην Ελλάδα, ιδίωσ

§ÂÊÙ¿ ·fi ¶·ÎÈÛÙ¿Ó Î·È πÓ‰›· ÁÈ· §·˚΋; Πολλά ερωτηµατικά εγείρονται Þσον αφορά το που θα βρεθούν τα 1,8 δισ ευρώ, ώστε η κυβέρνηση να στηρίξει τη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ µασ η κυβέρνηση περιµένει απαντήσεισ απÞ τρεισ χώρεσ για εξασφάλιση δανείου µε ευνοϊκÞ επιτÞκιο και συγκεκριµένα τισ Κίνα, Ινδία και Πακιστάν. Παράλληλα σκέφτεται σοβαρά και την εξασφάλιση δανείου απÞ το µηχανισµÞ στήριξησ χωρίσ αυτÞ να σηµαίνει την υιοθέτηση µνηµονίου Þπωσ έγινε και στην περίπτωση τησ Ιρλανδίασ η οποία είχε εξασφαλίσει δάνειο µε επιτÞκιο 3%. ΑυτÞ εξαρτάται απÞ την έγκαιρη ψήφιση του νοµοσχεδίου περί ισοσκελισµένων προϋπολογισµών, διαβεβαίωσαν την εφηµερίδα µασ υψηλÞβαθµεσ κυβερνητικέσ πηγέσ. Οι ίδιεσ πηγέσ ανέφεραν Þτι σε περίπτωση εξÞδου τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ το ευρώ τÞτε συνεπάγεται υιοθέτηση µνηµονίου µε επαχθείσ Þρουσ.

∞ÓÔ›ÁÂÈ Ô Ê¿ÎÂÏÔ˜ ∞∆∞ Οι σκέψεισ που γίνονται για µέτρα περιλαµβάνουν και το κεφάλαιο τησ ΑυτÞµατησ Τιµαριθµικήσ Αναπροσαρµογήσ, το οποίο άνοιξε σε συνάντηση του Υπουργού Οικονοµικών µε τισ συντεχνίεσ ΠΑΣΥ∆Υ, ΣΕΚ και ΠΕΟ και ακολούθωσ µε τισ εργοδοτικέσ οργανώσεισ. Σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ µασ, οι συναντήσεισ ήταν διερευνητικού χαρακτήρα µε στÞχο το Υπουργείο να ακούσει τισ θέσεισ των συντεχνιών, ενώ τισ επÞµενεσ µέρεσ θα δει και τισ εργοδοτικέσ οργανώσεισ. Ασφαλείσ πληροφορίεσ µασ φέρουν το Υπουργείο να εξετάζει το ενδεχÞµενο καταβολήσ τησ ΑΤΑ µε βάση εισοδηµατικά κριτήρια προσ Þφελοσ των χαµηλÞµισθων εργαζοµένων. Οι τεχνοκράτεσ του ΥΠΟΙΚ στο παρÞν στάδιο µελετούν διάφορα σενάρια και σύντοµα αναµένεται να βγουν οριστικέσ αποφάσεισ.

Hard Rock Café… ·fi πÔ‡ÏÈÔ Περί τα µέσα Ιουλίου Þπωσ πρώτη έγραψε η Financial Mirror αναµένεται να γίνουν τα εγκαίνια του πρώτου Hard Rock Cafe στη Λευκωσία και πιο ειδικά στη λεωφÞρο Σπύρου Κυπριανού. Στο πολυχώρο Þπωσ πληροφορούµαστε θα υπάρχουν χώροσ εστίασησ, roof garden, ενώ θα υπάρχει και κατάστηµα ειδών πώλησησ τησ γνωστήσ αµερικανικήσ αλυσίδασ. Ιδιοκτήτησ τησ αλυσίδασ είναι ο γνωστÞσ επιχειρηµατίασ Άκησ Έλληνασ ο οποίοσ στοχεύει σύντοµα να επεκτείνει την αλυσίδα και στη ΛεµεσÞ και συγκεκριµένα και στο πολυσύχναστο χώρο του Εναερίου. Παράλληλα η εταιρεία στοχεύει να έχει παρουσία σύντοµα µε κατάστηµα ειδών πώλησησ και στα κυπριακά αεροδρÞµια.

αν η Ελλάδα δεν είναι σε θέση να διατηρήσει τη συµµετοχή τησ στην Οικονοµική και Νοµισµατική Ενωση. ΤαυτÞχρονα, ο Οίκοσ υποβάθµισε την αξιολÞγηση βιωσιµÞτητασ (VR) τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου και τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ σε ‘’b-’’, απÞ ‘’bb-’’ και τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ σε ‘’f’’ απÞ ‘’b-’’.

2 σελ. 2

∫˘Úȷ΋ ∞√∑

ŸÏ· Ù· ÏÂÊÙ¿ ÛÙÔ «√ÈÎfiÂ‰Ô 3» To επÞµενο ΟικÞπεδο που βρίσκεται στην Αποκλειστική Οικονοµική Ζώνη τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ και στο οποίο αποφασίστηκε Þπωσ γίνει ερευνητική γεώτρηση σε δύο χρÞνια είναι το «ΟικÞπεδο 3» σύµφωνα µε διασταυρωµένεσ πληροφορίεσ µασ. Για το συγκεκριµένο ΟικÞπεδο οι πληροφορίεσ µασ κάνουν λÞγο Þτι έχουν ήδη γίνει τρισδιάστατεσ έρευνεσ και υπάρχει µεγάλο ενδιαφέρον απÞ πολλέσ εταιρείεσ. Ενδιαφέρον µεγάλο υπάρχει επίσησ και για τα ΟικÞπεδα 2 και 9 τα οποία είναι τα επÞµενα στα οποία θα µπει το γεωτρύπανο αφού είναι πολύ κοντά στην Κύπρο και εκτιµάται Þτι µπορούν να γίνουν πολύ γρήγορα µετά απÞ την συµφωνία και την υπογραφή τησ συµφωνίασ καταµερισµού παραγωγήσ η οποία θα αποφασιστεί σε µεταγενέστερο στάδιο. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη, ο ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ Υπηρεσίασ Ενέργειασ του Υπουργείου Εµπορίου ΣÞλων Κασίνησ µιλώντασ για το δεύτερο γύρο αδειοδοτήσεων στα οικÞπεδα τησ Αποκλειστικήσ Οικονοµικήσ Ζώνησ, ανέφερε Þτι ήταν αναµενÞµενο το µεγάλο ενδιαφέρον απÞ εταιρείεσ κολοσσούσ, ενώ απάντησε και στο ερώτηµα γιατί η αµερικανική εταιρεία Νoble Energy δεν υπέβαλε αίτηση: «Και εγώ αν ήµουν στην ∆ιοίκηση τησ Νoble θα έθετα σαν προτεραιÞτητα Þχι να πάω σε άλλα τεµάχια και να βρω και άλλεσ ασ το πούµε ποσÞτητεσ φυσικού αερίου αλλά να κοιτάξω να βρω τρÞπουσ πώσ να το αξιοποιήσω πώσ να το µετατρέψω σε χρήµατα», υπογράµµισε. Ο κύριοσ Κασίνησ εµφανίστηκε επίσησ πεπεισµένοσ για ύπαρξη µεγάλων ποσοτήτων πετρελαίου, αφού Þπωσ εξήγησε σε περιοχέσ Þπωσ αυτή του Ακάµα, υπάρχουν σοβαρέσ ενδείξεισ για τον θαλάσσιο και υποθαλάσσιο χώρο. Τέλοσ ο κύριοσ Κασίνησ αποκάλυψε Þτι στα σπλάχνα του «οικοπέδου 12» επιστρέφει µέχρι το τέλοσ του χρÞνου το γεωτρύπανο τησ Noble Energy, για διεξαγωγή τησ δεύτερησ επιβεβαιωτικήσ γεώτρησησ για την ακριβή ποσÞτητα και την ποιÞτητα του κοιτάσµατοσ υδρογονανθράκων. ¶·‡ÏÔ˜ °ÂˆÚÁÈ¿‰Ë˜

TÚ›ÔÓÙÔ ÛÙȘ ·ÛÊ¿ÏÂȘ ·fi Trust, Universal Î·È ∂ıÓÈ΋ Μεγάλη συγχώνευση τριών ασφαλιστικών εταιρειών επικειται το επÞµενο διάστηµα σύµφωνα µε καλά διασταυρωµένεσ πηγέσ τησ Financial Mirror. Ùπωσ πληροφορούµαστε η ασφαλιστική εταιρεία Trust Insurance απηύθυνε πρÞσκληση συνεργασίασ στισ εταιρείεσ Universal Life και Εθνική Ασφαλιστική µε στÞχο να τισ απορροφήσει το επÞµενο διάστηµα και να µπουν Þλεσ κάτω απÞ την ίδια οµπρέλα. Εκτιµάται Þτι απÞ αυτή τη συγχώνευση µε τισ συνέργειεσ που θα γίνουν θα δηµιουργηθεί η µεγαλύτερη ασφαλιστική εταιρεία στην Κύπρο. Η Trust Insurance Cyprus, ιδρύθηκε το 1990. Με έδρα την Κύπρο, παρέχει ασφαλιστικέσ υπηρεσίεσ σε διεθνή επίπεδο. Έχοντασ αποκτήσει διεθνή εµπειρία, δηµιούργησε τα κατάλληλα εφÞδια ώστε να µπει δυναµικά και στην Κυπριακή Αγορά. Το 2003, µετατρέπεται σε Κυπριακή Εταιρεία µε άδεια εξασκήσεωσ ασφαλιστικών υπηρεσιών και απÞ τον Αύγουστο του 2009, µπαίνει δυναµικά στην εγχώρια αγορά µε κεφάλαια που ξεπερνούν τα 8 εκ. ευρώ. ΠρÞεδροσ του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ εταιρείασ είναι ο πρώην ΥπουργÞσ Υγείασ Φρίξοσ Σαββίδησ,. Η Universal Life ιδρύθηκε το 1970 απÞ γνωστούσ και προοδευτικούσ Κυπριακούσ οίκουσ µε στÞχο την ανάπτυξη και πρÞοδο του ασφαλιστικού τοµέα στην Κύπρο, αµέσωσ µετά τη θέσπιση ασφαλιστικήσ νοµοθεσίασ που επέτρεπε για πρώτη φορά τη δηµιουργία ντÞπιων ασφαλιστικών εταιρειών. Η Universal Life είναι σήµερα µια

απÞ τισ κορυφαίεσ εταιρείεσ του κλάδου ζωήσ στην Κύπρο µε πρωταγωνιστικÞ ρÞλο στα ασφαλιστικά δρώµενα του τÞπου. Είναι επίσησ µε διαφορά η µεγαλύτερη εταιρεία στον κλάδο Ατυχηµάτων και Υγείασ στην Κύπρο. Τα ασφαλιστικά τησ προϊÞντα διατίθενται απÞ ένα δίκτυο άρτια εκπαιδευµένων ασφαλιστικών αντιπροσώπων, οι οποίοι διακρίνονται για το ήθοσ και τον επαγγελµατισµÞ τουσ. Πέραν των ασφαλιστικών τησ δραστηριοτήτων, οι εργασίεσ τησ Εταιρείασ επεκτείνονται και σε άλλουσ ζωτικούσ τοµείσ τησ οικονοµίασ Þπωσ στον κτηµατικÞ τοµέα, στον οποίο έχει να επιδείξει σηµαντικά αναπτυξιακά έργα, διατηρώντασ παράλληλα σηµαντικέσ επενδύσεισ για µελλοντική αξιοποίηση. Τέλοσ η Εθνική Ασφαλιστική στην Κύπρο, σήµερα, αποτελεί µια αυτÞνοµη, σύγχρονη, δυναµική Ασφαλιστική Εταιρεία, µέλοσ του Οµίλου τησ Εθνικήσ Τράπεζασ τησ Ελλάδοσ, του µεγαλύτερου χρηµατοοικονοµικού Οµίλου τησ Ελλάδασ. Η Εθνική Ασφαλιστική στην Κύπρο ασκεί τισ εργασίεσ τησ µέσω τησ Εθνικήσ Ασφαλιστικήσ (Κύπρου) Λτδ και τησ Εθνικήσ Γενικών Ασφαλειών (Κύπρου) Λτδ, µε έδρα στη Λευκωσία ενώ διαθέτει τα προϊÞντα τησ στο κυπριακÞ κοινÞ µέσα απÞ ένα συνεχώσ αναπτυσσÞµενο δίκτυο Ασφαλιστικών Συµβούλων και Αντιπροσώπων. Με Αποθεµατικά σχεδÞν 34 εκ. ευρώ, Ίδια Κεφάλαια που ξεπερνούν τα 13.3 εκ. ευρώ και Σύνολο Ενεργητικού που ξεπερνά τα 50 εκ. ευρώ, αποδεικνύει τη σοβαρÞτητα και το κύροσ τησ, εξυπηρετεί πέραν των 30.000 πελατών και ακολουθεί µια σταθερά ανοδική πορεία.

2/12

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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

∫Ú›ÛË ‰È·ÚΛ·˜ ÛÙËÓ ∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË… Î·È ÛÙÔ ‚¿ıÔ˜ Fed TÔ˘ ¡›ÎÔ˘ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë Έντονα πτωτικά κινήθηκε για άλλη µια εβδοµάδα η ισοτιµία Ευρώ - ∆ολαρίου η οποία υποχώρησε σε νέο χαµηλÞ τεσσάρων µηνών αγγίζοντασ το χαµηλÞτερο επίπεδο απÞ τον Αύγουστο του 2010. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία απÞ τα 1.2900 τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδοσ διολίσθησε µέχρι και τα 1.2640, για να διορθώσει στην συνέχεια πάνω απÞ τα 1.2750 Þπου και κινείται τισ τελευταίεσ ηµέρεσ. Το εβδοµαδιαίο σπάσιµο του 1.30 ήταν επÞµενο να σηµατοδοτήσει µεγάλη και απÞτοµη πτώση τησ ισοτιµίασ αφού το στενÞ εύροσ διακύµανσησ για πέραν των τριών µηνών θα οδηγούσε αργά ή γρήγορα σε ξέσπασµα. Τα επίπεδα του 1.26 πλέον αποτελούν ένα σοβαρÞ επίπεδο στήριξησ αφού είναι επίπεδα που κρατούν εδώ και 20 µήνεσ. Επίσησ η απÞτοµη πτώση 400 µονάδων έγινε σε πολύ σύντοµο χρονικÞ διάστηµα και Þπωσ συνηθίζεται ακολουθεί διÞρθωση. ΑπÞ την άλλη Þµωσ µε την ζώνη του Ευρώ να πάει απÞ το κακÞ στο χειρÞτερο η οποιαδήποτε ανοδική διÞρθωση πολύ δύσκολα θα διατηρηθεί. Η Ευρωζώνη πλέον είναι εγκλωβισµένη σε έναν φαύλο κύκλο αφερεγγυÞτητασ, έλλειψησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ και ύφεσησ που συνεχώσ κλιµακώνεται. Μπορεί η Þλη συζήτηση να περιστρέφεται γύρω απÞ την Ελλάδα αλλά Þλοι, εκτÞσ απÞ τουσ Γερµανούσ βέβαια, αντιλαµβάνονται πλέον πωσ η απειλή για την Ευρώπη δεν

ήταν ποτέ η Ελλάδα, αλλά η κακή διαχείριση τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ την Ευρώπη. Το µεγάλο πρÞβληµα που γίνεται ολοένα µεγαλύτερο είναι (το αποτέλεσµα) τησ αποτυχίασ να αντιµετωπιστεί το µικρÞ πρÞβληµα. Άλλωστε, ο πραγµατικÞσ κίνδυνοσ είναι αυτÞσ τησ µετάδοσησ τησ κρίσησ. Γιατί αν η Ελλάδα εν τέλει φύγει απÞ το ευρώ, τÞτε θα ακολουθήσουν αναπÞφευκτα ερωτήσεισ Þπωσ: Γιατί Þχι και η Πορτογαλία; Γιατί Þχι και η Ισπανία; Γιατί Þχι και η Ιταλία; ΤÞτε, η διάσπαση τησ ευρωζώνησ θα γινÞταν µια επιλογή- αν και Þχι ελκυστική- και Þχι κάτι που δεν µπορεί να συµβεί. Το µεγάλο και αναπάντητο µέχρι τώρα ερώτηµα είναι πÞσο µεγάλοσ είναι ο κίνδυνοσ µετάδοσησ. Οι αρχέσ τησ ευρωζώνησ επεδίωξαν τη δηµιουργία νέων θεσµών, Þπωσ ο ΕυρωπαϊκÞσ ΜηχανισµÞσ ΣταθερÞτητασ (ESM) και το Ταµείο Χρηµατοοικονοµικήσ ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΣταθερÞτητασ (EFSF), µε µÞνιµα και προσωρινά εργαλεία στήριξησ αντιστοίχωσ, που συνδυαστικά έχουν δυνατÞτητα χρηµατοδÞτησησ ύψουσ 750 δισ. ευρώ. Η ΕΚΤ, παράλληλα, έχει δείξει την ετοιµÞτητά τησ να στηρίξει τα κρατικά οµÞλογα των χωρών τησ περιφέρειασ Þποτε κρίνεται απαραίτητο. Οι επενδυτέσ φαίνεται Þτι έχουν βγάλει τα συµπεράσµατά τουσ. Τουσ τελευταίουσ εννέα µήνεσ, οι ξένοι επενδυτέσ πούλησαν ιταλικά κρατικά οµÞλογα ύψουσ 200 δισ. ευρώ. Αντιστοίχωσ, για τα ισπανικά οµÞλογα, οι πωλήσεισ απÞ ξένουσ επενδυτέσ άγγιξαν τα 80 δισ.

™Â Ó¤Ô ¯·ÌËÏfi ÙÂÛÛ¿ÚˆÓ ÌËÓÒÓ ˘Ô¯ÒÚËÛ ÙÔ ∂˘ÚÒ ÂÓ Ì¤Ûˆ ÂÓfi˜ ÌÔÓ·‰ÈÎÔ‡ Ê·‡ÏÔ˘ ·ÎÏÔ˘ ·ÊÂÚÂÁÁ˘fiÙËÙ·˜ ÛÙËÓ ˙ÒÓË ÙÔ˘ ∂˘ÚÒ ÙËÓ ›‰È· ÒÚ· Ô˘ Ë Fed ÓÔÈÒıÂÈ ÙËÓ ›ÂÛË ÙˆÓ ·ÁoÚÒÓ ÁÈ· QE3. ευρώ µε βάση τισ εκτιµήσεισ τησ JPMorgan. Επισηµαίνεται Þτι ξένοι επενδυτέσ κατέχουν κρατικά οµÞλογα των δύο χωρών συνολικά 800 δισ. ευρώ. Είναι τουλάχιστον αφελέσ να νοµίζει κανείσ Þτι µπορεί να περιοριστεί ο αντίκτυποσ Þσο συντονισµένη πολιτική και οικονοµική δράση και αν ληφθεί απÞ τα κράτη µέλη. ΑπÞ τη στιγµή που η Ελλάδα αποχωρήσει ή χρεοκοπήσει, τÞτε η µετάδοση τησ κρίσησ θα γίνει ένα κανÞνι που θα βάλει εναντίον των υπÞλοιπων χωρών µε ανυπολÞγιστεσ ζηµιέσ. Επίσησ πολλοί στισ αγορέσ ανησυχούν µήπωσ, αν οι θεσµικοί δανειστέσ Þπωσ η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση χάσουν Þλα τα χρήµατα που εµπιστεύθηκαν στην Ελλάδα, δεν θα έχουν τη

Fitch: ∏ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· «ÔÓ¿ÂÈ» ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ 2 σελ. 1/11 ΕιδικÞτερα, οι Fitch Ratings έθεσαν υπÞ αρνητική παρακολούθηση (Rating Watch Negative - RWN) την µακροπρÞθεσµη πιστοληπτική ικανÞτητα (Issuer Default Ratings - IDRs), τα Support Rating Floors (SRFs) ‘BB+’ και τον βαθµÞ κρατικήσ στήριξησ ‘’3’’ (Support Ratings ‘3’), των Τραπεζών Κύπρου, Λαϊκή και Ελληνική. Σύµφωνα µε τον διεθνή οίκο, σε περίπτωση που στισ νέεσ εκλογέσ στην Ελλάδα που έχουν προγραµµατιστεί για τισ 17 Ιουνίου δεν σχηµατιστεί Κυβέρνηση µε εντολή να συνεχίσει µε το πρÞγραµµα δηµοσιονοµικήσ λιτÞτητασ τησ ΕΕ και ∆ΝΤ και τισ διαρθρωτικέσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ, η έξοδοσ τησ Ελλάδα απÞ την ΟΝΕ θα είναι πιθανή και αυτÞ θα µπορούσε να οδηγήσει σε εξάπλωση τησ χρεοκοπίασ στον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα καθώσ και στισ κρατικέσ υποχρεώσεισ σε ευρώ. Αναφέρει επίσησ Þτι ενώ η τάση τησ κυπριακήσ Κυβέρνησησ να στηρίξει τισ κυπριακέσ τράπεζεσ παραµένει αµετάβλητη, η ικανÞτητά τησ θα εξαρτηθεί σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ απÞ την έκταση των προβληµάτων που προέρχονται απÞ τισ εργασίεσ των κυπριακών τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα. ‘’Η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα είναι η πλέον εκτεθειµένη στα ελληνικά δάνεια (49% των χορηγήσεων στο

τέλοσ του 2011: Συµπεριλαµβανοµένων και των διεθνών ναυτιλιακών δανείων που δÞθηκαν στην Ελλάδα), ακολουθούµενη απÞ την Τράπεζα Κύπρου (34% στο τέλοσ Μαρτίου 2012) και την Ελληνική Τράπεζα (17% στο τέλοσ του 2011)’’, προσθέτει ο οίκοσ Fitch Ratings. Σηµειώνει, ωστÞσο, Þτι η έκθεση στο ελληνικÞ δηµÞσιο χρέοσ έχει µειωθεί σηµαντικά µετά απÞ τισ αποµειώσεισ το 2011 και κυµαίνονται µεταξύ 35 εκατοµµυρίων ευρώ για την Ελληνική και γύρω στα 350 εκ. ευρώ για την Λαϊκή. Οι Fitch Ratings αναφέρουν Þτι η υποβάθµιση τησ αξιολÞγησησ βιωσιµÞτητασ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου και τησ Ελληνικήσ αντικατοπτρίζει τισ κεφαλαιακέσ τουσ ανάγκεσ λÞγω των µεγάλων ζηµιών το 2011, ωσ αποτέλεσµα των αποµειώσεων απÞ την έκθεση τουσ στο ελληνικÞ κρατικÞ χρέοσ και τησ επιδείνωσησ του προφίλ πιστωτικού κινδύνου τουσ. Επίσησ, οι Fitch σηµειώνουν Þτι η περαιτέρω επιδείνωση του δανειακού χαρτοφυλακίου το 2012, ιδιαίτερα του χαρτοφυλακίου ελληνικών δανείων, θα µπορούσε να αυξήσει στισ κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ των τραπεζών. Το RWN στην αξιολÞγηση τησ βιωσιµÞτητασ των τραπεζών Κύπρου και Ελληνικήσ αντικατοπτρίζει, σύµφωνα µε τον διεθνή οίκο, την ευαισθησία τουσ για τισ εξελίξεισ στην Ελλάδα.

δυνατÞτητα να στηρίξουν τη Ρώµη και τη Μαδρίτη. Το premium που πληρώνει η Ισπανία για να δανειστεί συγκριτικά µε το γερµανικÞ επιτÞκιο άγγιξε νέο ρεκÞρ, στισ 481 µονάδεσ βάσησ. Και µέσα σε Þλα αυτά αναµένεται µε ενδιαφέρον η αντίδραση τησ Fed τα µέλη τησ οποίασ στα τελευταία πρακτικά απÞ την συνεδρίαση του Μάιου άφησαν να εννοηθεί Þτι περαιτέρω προσαρµογή τησ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ θα ήταν αναγκαία εάν η οικονοµική ανάκαµψη έχανε το momentum τησ ή εάν οι κίνδυνοι καθοδικήσ απÞκλισησ διογκώνονταν σηµαντικά. Η Fed πλέον νοιώθει και πάλι για τα καλά την πίεση των αγορών για ένα νέο κύκλο ποσοτικήσ χαλάρωσησ (QE3) αφού µε τουσ Γερµανούσ απαθήσ ίσωσ είναι η µÞνη που µπορεί να δώσει και πάλι το φιλί τησ ζωήσ στισ αγορέσ. Βεβαίωσ αυτή την φορά χωρίσ την συµµετοχή των Γερµανών το QE3 δεν δείχνει ικανÞ να σώσει την παρτίδα. Τεχνικά η πτώση τησ ισοτιµίασ κοντά στα επίπεδα του 1.26 δείχνει να συµπληρώνει το πρώτο πτωτικÞ κύµα µε πιθανÞν να σηµειωθεί µια ανοδική διÞρθωση πλησιάζοντασ ακÞµα και τα 1.30. ΑκÞµα και έτσι Þµωσ η τάση είναι σαφέστατα πτωτική και τα επίπεδα του 1.26 είναι απλÞσ θέµα χρÞνου να δοκιµαστούν και πάλι. Βέβαια πολλά θα εξαρτηθούν απÞ το ΕλληνικÞ ζήτηµα Þπωσ βέβαια και οι αποφάσεισ τησ Fed για QE3. √ ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜, Â›Ó·È Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com

∏ §·˚΋ ¤ÚÈÍ ÛÙ· Ù¿ÚÙ·Ú· ÙÔ Ã∞∫ Νέα µεγάλη βουτιά πραγµατοποίησε χθεσ το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου λÞγω τησ αβεβαιÞτητασ για τη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Ο γενικÞσ δείκτησ µε ζηµιέσ 5.65% κατέληξε στισ 159 µονάδεσ που είναι νέο ιστορικÞ χαµηλÞ. Ο δείκτησ επίλεκτων µετοχών µε πτώση 5.4% κατρακύλησε στισ 59 µονάδεσ. Ο Þγκοσ συναλλαγών ανήλθε στισ 465.841 ευρώ και απÞ το σύνολο των µετοχών 3 σηµείωσαν άνοδο, 15 πτώση και 113 έµειναν χωρίσ µεταβολή. Η µετοχή τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου µε πτώση 5.72% υποχώρησε στα 0.31 ευρώ, τησ Μαρφίν Λαϊκήσ µε ζηµιέσ 9.32% κατέληξε στα 0.11 ευρώ και τησ Ελληνικήσ µε απώλειεσ 0.99% έφτασε στα 0.20 ευρώ.

π·ÓÔ˘¿ÚÈÔ˜ 1990 ÛÙÔ Ã∞ Στο χαµηλÞτερο επίπεδο απÞ τον Ιανουάριο του 1990 έκλεισε χθεσ ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ του Χρηµατιστηρίου τησ Αθήνασ, µε νέεσ απώλειεσ και αφού πρώτα σηµείωσε νέο ενδοσυνεδριακÞ χαµηλÞ 22 ετών. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ έκλεισε στισ 535,96 µονάδεσ υποχωρώντασ 1,58%, και αξία συναλλαγών 42,8 εκ. ευρώ. Για τον τραπεζικÞ δείκτη, Þπου µε θετικÞ πρÞσηµο ολοκλήρωσαν οι Alpha Bank, Eurobank και Τρ. Πειραιώσ, η συνεδρίαση έκλεισε µε απώλειεσ 0,92% στισ 204,26 µονάδεσ. Αναλυτικά απÞ τον FTSE20, οι Alpha Bank και Eurobank βρέθηκαν στην κορυφή των κερδών, ενισχυµένεσ 2,92% και 1,77% στα 0,776 και 0,517 ευρώ αντίστοιχα. Ακολούθησαν οι Τρ. Πειραιώσ και MIG µε άνοδο 0,92% και 0,88%. Για τουσ τίτλουσ των ΤΤ, ∆ΕΗ και ΟΠΑΠ οι συναλλαγέσ ολοκληρώθηκαν χωρίσ µεταβολή στα 0,32, 1,58 και 4,15 ευρώ αντίστοιχα (µε τον ΟΠΑΠ να έχει βρεθεί ενδοσυνεδριακά σε νέο ιστορικÞ χαµηλÞ στα 3,90 ευρώ). Με πτώση 5,98% και 4,94% ακολούθησαν οι ΜΑΡΦΒ και ΚΑΕ, άνω του 3% υποχώρησαν οι Τρ. Κύπρου, Βιοχάλκο και Τιτάν, ενώ πτωτικά σε ποσοστÞ 2,66% και 2,59% κινήθηκαν οι µετοχέσ των Jumbo και ΕΛΠΕ. Για τισ Coca-Cola 3E και ΕΤΕ οι συναλλαγέσ έκλεισαν µε µικρÞτερεσ απώλειεσ 1,70% και 0,79% στα 12,69 και 1,25 ευρώ αντίστοιχα.

∂ӉȷʤÚÔÓ ·fi ∫‡ÚÈÔ˘˜ Î·È Í¤ÓÔ˘˜ ÁÈ· ª·Ú›Ó· §ÂÌÂÛÔ‡ Σηµαντικά και ελπιδοφÞρα ήταν τα αποτελέσµατα τησ έρευνα Cyprus Residential Development - Prime Market Report 2012 για την αγορά των υπερπολυτελών αναπτύξεων στην Κύπρο. Η έρευνα ετοιµάστηκε απÞ την ανεξάρτητη, διεθνή εταιρεία συµβούλων ακινήτων Knight Frank, µε ένα δίκτυο 242 γραφείων σε Þλο τον κÞσµο. Τα αποτελέσµατα τησ έρευνασ παρουσιάστηκαν στην Κύπρο απÞ την εταιρεία Cybarco που δραστηριοποιείται στον τοµέα ανάπτυξησ πολυτελών ακινήτων στην Κύπρο. Στην έρευνα Cyprus Residential Development - Prime Market Report 2012, έγινε ανάλυση τησ οικονοµικήσ κατάστασησ στην Κύπρο, η οποία αν και επηρεάζεται απÞ την οικονοµική κρίση, είναι σε πολύ καλύτερο επίπεδο απÞ άλλεσ χώρεσ µέλη τησ ΕΕ. Γίνεται επίσησ αναφορά στην εύρεση κοιτασµάτων φυσικού αερίου στην Κυπριακή ΑΟΖ και στην ώθηση που αναµένεται να δώσει στην οικονοµία τησ Κύπρου και κατ’ επέκταση στον τοµέα των ακινήτων. Σηµαντική αναφορά γίνεται και στο γεγονÞσ Þτι η κυπριακή οικονοµία βασίζεται ωσ επί το πλείστον στον τοµέα των υπηρεσιών, µε την τουριστική βιοµηχανία να κατέχει κυρίαρχη θέση. Παρά την µείωση, η αγορά του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου παραµένει η µεγαλύτερη πηγή τουρισµού ενώ η εισροή τουρισµού απÞ τη Ρωσία παρουσιάζει σηµαντική αύξηση. Την ίδια τάση ακολουθεί και η αγορά ακινήτων στην Κύπρο απÞ ξένουσ αγοραστέσ. Παρ’Þλο που οι τιµέσ και ο ρυθµÞσ πωλήσεων των ακινήτων έχουν µειωθεί σηµαντικά (12%) απÞ την χρυσή περίοδο του 2007, εκ διαµέτρου αντίθετη είναι η εικÞνα που παρουσιάζει η αγορά των πολυτελών ακινήτων στην Κύπρο. Η ζήτηση έχει παραµείνει σε υψηλά επίπεδα αν και οι τιµέσ έχουν αυξηθεί κατά 10% µέσα σε δύο χρÞνια. Η αγορά τησ Κύπρου σε αυτÞ τον τοµέα διαφοροποιείται απÞ άλλεσ αγορέσ Þσο αφορά την τιµή, την τοποθεσία και το προ-

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™Ù·ıÂÚ‹ Ë ·ÁÔÚ¿ ÔÏ˘ÙÂÏÒÓ ·ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ φίλ των αγοραστών για ακίνητα πέραν των 500,000 ευρώ. Αυτέσ οι αναπτύξεισ προσελκύουν ωσ επί το πλείστον Ρώσουσ και άλλουσ Ευρωπαίουσ αγοραστέσ, οι οποίοι προβαίνουν σε αγορά τησ κύριασ ή τησ εξοχικήσ τουσ κατοικίασ. Η αγορά των πολυτελών ακινήτων στην Κύπρο περιλαµβάνει µικρÞ αριθµÞ υπερπολυτελών αναπτύξε-

ων Þπωσ η Μαρίνα Λεµεσού, το Akamas Bay Villas στο Λατσί και τo Sea Gallery Villas στη ΛεµεσÞ, έργα τησ εταιρείασ Cybarco. Η έρευνα Cyprus Residential Development - Prime Market Report 2012 παρουσιάζει σαν παράδειγµα την Μαρίνα Λεµεσού, η οποία αποτελεί µια απÞ τισ σηµαντικÞτερεσ αναπτύξεισ στο νησί. Η Limassol Marina, η οποία θα είναι έτοιµη να υποδεχτεί τα πρώτα σκάφη και ενοίκουσ πριν το τέλοσ του χρÞνου, προσελκύει το ενδιαφέρον τÞσο των Κύπριων Þσο και των ξένων αγοραστών. Οι κατασκευαστικέσ εργασίεσ βρίσκονται σε πλήρη εξέλιξη και συνεχίζονται µε εντατικούσ ρυθµούσ. Τα διαµερίσµατα στο Nereids και Thetis Residences και οι µοναδικέσ επαύλεισ Peninsula & Island Villas µε ιδιωτικέσ θέσεισ ελλιµενισµού µέχρι και 60 µ., διακρίνονται για την πολυτέλεια τουσ, την απρÞσκοπτη θέα προσ τη θάλασσα και τη Μαρίνα προσφέροντασ ένα νέο τρÞπο ζωήσ, «Living on the sea». Έχοντασ υπÞψη την ευρύτερη Ευρωπαϊκή αγορά και συγκρίνοντασ την µε άλλεσ αναπτύξεισ που πωλούνται κατά το στάδιο κατασκευήσ, η Μαρίνα Λεµεσού είναι ένα απÞ τα πιο επιτυχηµένα έργα αφού σε διάστηµα 14 µηνών έχουν υπογραφεί και κατατεθεί στο κτηµατολÞγιο συµβÞλαια πέραν των 55 εκ. ευρώ. Ο ΕκτελεστικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ Cybarco, Μιχάλησ Χατζηπαναγιώτου, κατά τη διάρκεια τησ παρουσίασησ, αναφέρθηκε και στην επιτυχηµένη πορεία τησ εταιρείασ κατά τα τελευταία χρÞνια καθώσ επίσησ και σε Þλα τα µεγαλεπήβολά τησ έργα τα οποία αναφέρονται στην έρευνα αυτή.To Akamas Bay Villas που ανεγείρεται στο πιο µαγευτικÞ παραλιακÞ σηµείο τησ Κύπρου, µεταξύ του Λατσιού και τησ χερσονήσου του Ακάµα, και το Sea Gallery Villas στη ΛεµεσÞ, ένα µοναδικÞ έργο µε 17 ανεξάρτητεσ υπερπολυτελείσ επαύλεισ, 100 µέτρα απÞ τη θάλασσα. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ επισκεφτείτε την ιστοσελίδα www.cybarco.com.

∂π¢∏™∂π™

∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

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∫ÈÓ¤˙ÔÈ, ·¤ÚÈÔ Î·È ·Î›ÓËÙ· ∆Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓË §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘ Πληροφορούµεθα στην ατµÞσφαιρα τησ Κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ Þτι υπάρχει ενδιαφέρον για αγορά ακινήτων απÞ τουσ Κινέζουσ. Αν και είχαµε κάποιεσ επιµέρουσ συναντήσεισ µε διάφορουσ ενδιαφερÞµενουσ, επρÞκειτο µάλλον για ιδιώτεσ µε κύριο ενδιαφέρον την εξασφάλιση µÞνιµησ κατοικίασ και/ή διαβατηρίου (το µέτρο αυτÞ µετά απÞ 5 χρÞνια ακÞµη είναι οµιχλώδεσ και ουδείσ γνωρίζει τι γίνεται). Ασ µην µασ δοθεί η εντύπωση Þτι οι Κινέζοι θα κατακλύσουν την αγορά ακινήτων τησ Κύπρου τουλάχιστον στο στάδιο αυτÞ. Οι εµπειρίεσ οι δικέσ µασ είναι Þτι το ενδιαφέρον επικεντρώνεται κυρίωσ στην Λάρνακα και ΛεµεσÞ και για µονάδεσ µέχρι 300.000 ευρώ (το ελάχιστο ποσÞ αγοράσ κατοικίασ για εξασφάλιση βίζασ µÞνιµησ κατοίκησησ). Στο στάδιο αυτÞ δεν υπάρχει επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον οµολογουµένωσ και πολλά θα εξαρτηθούν απÞ την επιµÞρφωση που θα τύχει η Κίνα απÞ τισ εδώ οργανώσεισ, ΚΕΒΕ κλπ. Βέβαια θα πρέπει να γίνουν αντιληπτέσ οι κλίµακεσ των δύο χωρών. Η Κύπροσ και οι σχετικέσ επιχειρήσεισ τησ δεν ξεµπερδεύουν µε 2-3 Κινέζικεσ εκθέσεισ και 10-20 διαφηµίσεισ στα Κινέζικα. Θα πρέπει να στοχεύσει η προβολή στα επιµέρουσ επιχειρηµατικά κέντρα, να χρησιµοποιηθεί η κατάλληλη Κινέζικη διάλεκτοσ, ενώ κάπωσ κύριο πρÞβληµα είναι η επεξήγηση στουσ Κινέζουσ που είναι η Κύπροσ. Αφού “εντυπωσιαστούν” απÞ το µέγεθοσ, µετά θα πρέπει να τουσ επεξηγηθεί γιατί να επενδύσουν στην Κύπρο και Þχι σε άλλη χώρα τησ Ε. ΄Ενωσησ. Να είστε έτοιµοι να εξηγήσετε και την αεροπορική διαδροµή απÞ τον τÞπο κατοίκησησ τουσ στην Κίνα στα αεροδρÞµια µασ. Να είστε προσεκτικοί εάν σασ ζητούν να εκδώσετε πρÞσκληση επίσκεψησ, διÞτι εάν δεν γνωρίζετε το άτοµο, θα πρέπει να του παρέχεται εγγύηση για την πληρωµή του ξενοδοχείου του, ασφά-

λεια υγείασ και σε περίπτωση “εξαφάνισησ” του στην Κύπρου φέρετε ευθύνη. Η γλώσσα αποτελεί επίσησ ένα µεγάλο πρÞβληµα. Ελάχιστοι Κινέζοι µπορούν να συνεννοηθούν επαρκώσ στα Αγγλικά, ενώ η προφορά τουσ είναι ένα πρÞσθετο αρνητικÞ στοιχείο στην συναντίληψη. Η χρήση µεταφραστή είναι µεν µια λύση, αλλά στην δική µασ περίπτωση “ατυχήσαµε”, διÞτι ο µεταφραστήσ µασ πληροφÞρησε απÞ την µια Þτι οι πελάτεσ δεν ενδιαφέρονται και ο ίδιοσ είχε απευθείασ συνεννÞηση µε τουσ πωλητέσ αντί µέσω του Γραφείου. Είναι Þµωσ γεγονÞσ Þτι φαίνεται απÞ τισ αρχικέσ µασ επαφέσ Þτι υπάρχει κάποιο ενδιαφέρον που να δικαιολογεί περαιτέρω διερεύνηση επί τÞπου (µε αρκετÞ κÞστοσ). ΤαυτÞχρονα θα πρέπει να συζητήσετε το θέµα χρηµατοδÞτησησ των αγοραστών σασ µε την τράπεζα, για παροχή δανείου για αγοραστέσ. Πολύ φοβούµεθα Þτι τÞσο η αδυναµία των τραπεζών µασ, Þσο και οι τÞκοι θα είναι µια τροχοπέδη στο ξεκίνηµα προώθησησ Κυπριακών ακινήτων. Πολλά θα εξαρτηθούν απÞ το εµπορικÞ έργο του αεροδροµίου Λάρνακασ µε τισ 500.000 τ.µ., διÞτι µε τισ 100 και πλέον επιχειρήσεισ που αναµένεται να εγκατασταθούν στην Κύπρο, θα γίνει και η Κύπροσ πιο γνωστή στην Κίνα. Επαναλαµβάνουµε παλαιÞτερη µασ εισήγηση για ενίσχυση τέτοιων δραστηριοτήτων στο εξωτερικÞ απÞ τισ Κυπριακέσ επιχειρήσεισ. Αν και το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου επιχορηγεί σε κάποιο βαθµÞ τέτοιεσ δραστηριÞτητεσ µε ποσÞ 1.000 ευρώ/έκθεση, εντούτοισ Þταν κάποιοσ υπολογίσει Þτι µια συνήθησ έκθεση κοστίζει γύρω στισ 10.000 ευρώ ανά συµµετέχοντα, γίνεται αντιληπτÞ Þτι χρειάζεται περισσÞτερη ενίσχυση. Ίσωσ ένα κονδύλι γύρω στο 1 εκ. ευρώ να αφαιρεθεί απÞ την διαφήµιση του ΚΟΤ και να διατεθεί για αυτÞν τον σκοπÞ και/ή οι διαφηµίσεισ ΚΟΤ να περιλαµβάνουν και τισ επενδύσεισ ακινήτων (ίδε Ισπανία). Ελπίζουµε επίσησ Þτι Κινέζικοι οίκοι θα ενδιαφερθούν και για τα καζίνο, γιατί προσφέρουν τισ ίδιεσ προοπτικέσ Þπωσ και το Mall τησ Λάρνακασ (οι Κινέζοι είναι οι πλέον µανιώδεισ παίκτεσ καζίνο στον κÞσµο). Τέτοια εντατική προσέγγιση ίσωσ να είναι πιο

πύργο στον κÞσµο, ξεπερνώντασ τον Πύργο τησ ΚαντÞνασ, ύψουσ 600 µέτρων. Το υψηλÞτερο κτίριο στον κÞσµο είναι το ύψουσ 828 µέτρων Burj Khalifa στο Ντουµπάι. Η εταιρία που διαχειρίζεται τον πύργο εκτιµά πωσ οι επισκέπτεσ θα φτάνουν ετησίωσ τα 25 εκατοµµύρια.

MTN: €1 1,5 ÂÎ. ÁÈ· ∞¶√∂§ Ωσ κύριοσ χορηγÞσ του ΑΠΟΕΛ και την τριετία 2013-16, θα παραµείνει η ΜΤΝ. Η εταιρεία κινητήσ τησ τηλεφωνίασ ήταν χορηγÞσ τησ οµάδασ τα τελευταία χρÞνια και το Þλο θέµα που δηµιουργήθηκε, προέκυψε µετά την κατάθεση πρÞτασησ απÞ την ανταγωνίστρια Cyta. ΣτÞχοσ και των δύο εταιρειών είναι να φαίνεται το λογÞτυπο τησ εταιρείασ στο µπροστινÞ µέροσ τησ φανέλασ τησ οµάδασ. Εκεί που η Cyta θεωρούσε δεδοµένη τη συµφωνία µε τη διοίκηση τησ εταιρείασ ΑΠΟΕΛ ΠοδÞσφαιρο, ο νυν χορηγÞσ των “γαλαζοκιτρίνων” (MTN) ενεργοποίησε τον Þρο που την ήθελε να έχει τον πρώτο λÞγο σε περίπτωση που κάνει ανάλογη

κατάλληλη για µεγάλεσ επενδύσεισ που υπάρχουν στην Κύπρο και που απαιτούν ξένα κεφάλαια, διÞτι για µικρέσ επιχειρήσεισ το κÞστοσ είναι απαγορευτικÞ. ΤÞσο οι µαρίνεσ Þσο και τα γήπεδα γκολφ που παραµένουν στα χαρτιά, δυστυχώσ, ίσωσ να τουσ προσφέρεται τέτοια δίοδοσ για συµµετοχή σε κοινοπραξίεσ. ∆υστυχώσ οι Κυβερνητικέσ υπηρεσίεσ και τα Υπουργεία Εσωτερικών/ Οικονοµικών/ Εµπορίου δεν έχουν κατορθώσει να αρπάξουν τέτοιεσ επενδυτικέσ ευκαιρίεσ απÞ ξένουσ, διÞτι το µέτρο Passport for Cash & House Purchase with visa Þπωσ προαναφερθήκαµε δεν είναι ξεκάθαρο. Παρ’ Þλησ τησ επιµονήσ µασ εδώ και 1? χρÞνο για ξεκαθάρισµα, ουδέν νεÞτερο στο στάδιο αυτÞ. Έχουµε ασφαλώσ την CIPA για την προβολή τησ Κύπρου µε στÞχο την προσέλκυση ξένων επενδυτών, αλλά χρειάζεται κάποια φαντασία και πρÞσθετη ενίσχυση αυτού του οργανισµού. Χώρεσ στÞχευσησ είναι εκείνεσ που έχουν προβλήµατα πολιτικήσ σταθερÞτητασ (Αίγυπτοσ, Συρία, Μπαχρέιν, Ισραήλ και Ιορδανία – στο

ºÂ‡ÁÂÈ ÙÔ euro Î·È ¤Ú¯ÂÙ·È ÙÔ Geuro;

√˘Ú·ÓÔ͇ÛÙ˘ 634 ̤ÙÚˆÓ ÛÙÔ ∆fiÎÈÔ Εγκαινιάστηκε χθεσ στο ΤÞκιο, ο υψηλÞτεροσ πύργοσ του κÞσµου και µÞνο την πρώτη µέρα τον επισκέφθηκαν 200.000 άνθρωποι. Ο ουρανοξύστησ Tokyo Skytree, ύψουσ 634 µέτρων, αποτελεί το νέο τηλεπικοινωνιακÞ κέντρο τησ ιαπωνικήσ πρωτεύουσασ, µε 312 καταστήµατα και εστιατÞρια, γραφεία, ενυδρείο και πλανητάριο. Ο ουρανοξύστησ που βρίσκεται στο ανατολικÞ ΤÞκιο έχει δύο παρατηρητήρια στα 350 και στα 450 µέτρα και θέα 360 µοιρών τησ µεγαλούπολησ. “Ελπίζω πωσ ο Tokyo Skytree θα βοηθήσει στην ανάκαµψη του τουρισµού και θα αποτελέσει το κίνητρο που θα δώσει ζωή στισ περιοχέσ τησ βÞρειασ Ιαπωνίασ οι οποίεσ επλήγησαν απÞ τον καταστροφικÞ σεισµÞ”, τÞνισε ο υπουργÞσ Υποδοµών Τακέσι Μαέντα τησ Ιαπωνίασ. Το Βιβλίο ΡεκÞρ Γκίνεσ χαρακτήρισε τον Νοέµβριο τον Tokyo Skytree τον ψηλÞτερο

∆fiÛÔ Ë ·‰˘Ó·Ì›· ÙˆÓ ÙÚ·Â˙ÒÓ Ì·˜, fiÛÔ Î·È ÔÈ ÙfiÎÔÈ ı· ·ÔÙÂϤÛÔ˘Ó ÙÚÔ¯Ô¤‰Ë ÛÙÔ ÍÂΛÓËÌ· ÚÔÒıËÛ˘ ÙˆÓ ∫˘ÚÈ·ÎÒÓ ·ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ

άµεσο µέλλον). Εάν µπορούσαµε να καθοδηγήσουµε τα πιο πάνω υπουργεία, θα διαθέταµε ποσÞ 3 εκ. ευρώ µε έντυπεσ διαφηµίσεισ στισ εκεί χώρεσ γιατί να προτιµήσουν την Κύπρο, τι επενδυτικέσ ευκαιρίεσ υπάρχουν, τονίζοντασ την ασφάλεια ζωήσ και περιουσίασ και µετά άµεσεσ και συνεχείσ επισκέψεισ απÞ οµάδεσ επιχειρηµατιών ανάπτυξησ, ξενοδÞχουσ κλπ κλπ. Ùσο και να σασ φαίνεται περίεργο, υπάρχει αυξητικÞ ενδιαφέρον πρÞσφατα απÞ Ισραηλινέσ εταιρείεσ, ενώ η υποβÞσκουσα πολιτική αστάθεια στον Λίβανο δεν πρέπει να αγνοηθεί. Υπάρχουν ορισµένοι οίκοι Ισραηλινών εταιρειών µε επενδύσεισ σε ακίνητα στην Κύπρο (και στα κατεχÞµενα δυστυχώσ) και ύπαρξη και αυξητικού ενδιαφέροντοσ για το ΚυπριακÞ Γκάζι απÞ σχετικέσ Ισραηλινέσ εταιρείεσ (διÞτι πιστεύουµε Þτι οι πολυεθνικέσ εταιρείεσ θα έχουν ελάχιστο ενδιαφέρον λÞγω αντίδρασησ τησ Τουρκίασ και άρα θα αναλάβουν οι σχετιζÞµενεσ µε το Ισραήλ εταιρείεσ µε την κάλυψη τησ Αµερικήσ). ΠρÞσφατο επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον επιδείχθηκε και απÞ άλλεσ πολυεθνικέσ εταιρείεσ που ασχολούνται µε την προµήθεια υλικών για τισ γεωτρήσεισ. ΓερµανικÞσ κολοσσÞσ µασ ζήτησε αποθηκευτικÞ χώρο 20.000 τ.µ. και άλλοσ 30.000 τ.µ. για να έχει βάση την Κύπρο. Ο κ. Σιαρλήσ ζητά εναγωνίωσ 200 εκ. ευρώ για το έλλειµµα. Εάν παραχωρήσουµε 200 διαβατήρια προσ 1 εκ. ευρώ(ζητούµε τώρα 15 εκ. ευρώ µε ίσωσ-ίσωσ – δεν γνωρίζει κανένασ 10 εκ. ευρώ) τÞτε δεν θα είναι δύσκολο να προσελκύσουµε Άραβεσ/Κινέζουσ/ Ρώσουσ κλπ στο σύνολο των 200 ατÞµων. Σε πρÞσφατη τηλεφωνική επικοινωνία µασ µε τον ΠρÞεδρο του Συνδέσµου ΛευκορωσίασΚύπρου (στην Λευκορωσία) σχετικά µε τα µέτρα έκδοσησ διαβατηρίου, του είπαµε “περίµενε”. Περιµένουµε είπαµε και σε Αρµένιο απÞ το Γεριβάν για το ίδιο θέµα. Μετά απÞ αναµονή 2 ετών µασ έγραψε ευχαριστήρια επιστολή (ο τελευταίοσ) και µασ πληροφÞρησε Þτι µε 5 εκ. ευρώ εξασφάλισε διαβατήριο απÞ την Ιρλανδία (αντί τα 15 εκ. ευρώ ή 10 εκ. ευρώ που ζητά η Κύπροσ).

πρÞταση µε άλλουσ ενδιαφερÞµενουσ. Ωσ εκ τούτου, το µεγάλο δίχτυο κινητήσ τηλεφωνίασ προχώρησε σε νέα πρÞταση ύψουσ 1.500.000 ευρώ, Þση ήταν και η πρÞταση τησ Cyta, κερδίζοντασ τη µάχη για την επÞµενη τριετία. Ουσιαστικά το ποσÞ που θα δαπανεί κάθε χρÞνο η ΜΤΝ για να εµφανίζεται στισ στολέσ των γαλαζοκιτρίνων, φτάνει τισ 500 χιλιάδεσ. Ο 1οσ ΑντιπρÞεδροσ των γαλαζοκιτρίνων Γιώργοσ Γεωργίου, επιβεβαίωσε την πρÞταση τησ CYTA και ξεκαθάρισε Þτι η ΜΤΝ είχε το δικαίωµα να ισοφαρίσει την οποιαδήποτε προσφορά και να συνεχίσει να διαφηµίζεται στο µπροστινÞ µέροσ τησ φανέλασ του ΑΠΟΕΛ.

Την κατηγορηµατική διαβεβαίωση Þτι το «σχέδιο Α» τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ είναι η διατήρηση τησ Ελλάδασ στη ζώνη του ευρώ και η ΕΚΤ δεν εργάζεται παρά µÞνο πάνω σε αυτÞ έδωσε o Γεργκ Ασµουσεν, µέλοσ του διοικητικού συµβουλίου. Την ίδια ώρα, Þµωσ, η Deutsche Bank σε ανάλυσή τησ έκανε λÞγο για το Geuro, «ένα παράλληλο νÞµισµα για την Ελλάδα». Ο Γεργκ Ασµουσεν ερωτηθείσ αν υφίσταται ένα «σχέδιο Β» για την Ελλάδα, ο ΓερµανÞσ τραπεζίτησ τÞνισε: «Εχουµε ήδη επικριθεί για το γεγονÞσ Þτι δεν υπάρχει. Οµωσ απÞ τη στιγµή που αρχίζουµε να µιλάµε για ένα σχέδιο Β ή Γ, το σχέδιο Α δεν έχει πια καµία πιθανÞτητα να πραγµατοποιηθεί». Υιοθέτησε έτσι την ίδια γραµµή που είχε υιοθετήσει την περασµένη εβδοµάδα ο πρÞεδροσ τησ ΕΚΤ, Μάριο Ντράγκι, που δήλωσε πωσ η ευρωτράπεζα δεν θέλει να βγει η Ελλάδα απÞ την Ευρωζώνη, παραδεχÞµενοσ πάντωσ Þτι η απÞφαση δεν ανήκει σε αυτήν. Στο µεταξύ, σύµφωνα µε την ανάλυση τησ γερµανικήσ τράπεζασ Deutsche Bank, οι πρÞσφατεσ δηµοσκοπήσεισ εµφανίζουν Þτι η νέα ελληνική κυβέρνηση θα αποτελείται απÞ κÞµµατα που απορρίπτουν το πρÞγραµµα προσαρµογήσ τησ τρÞικασ. Την ίδια στιγµή, ωστÞσο, επισηµαίνει Þτι η Ελλάδα είναι απίθανο τυπικά να εγκαταλείψει το ευρώ, Þπωσ και οι άλλεσ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ να εγκαταλείψουν εντελώσ την Ελλάδα. «Ο δρÞµοσ τησ µικρÞτερησ αντίστασησ θα µπορούσε να είναι η διακοπή τησ χρηµατοοικονοµικήσ βοήθειασ προσ την ελληνική κυβέρνηση και η συνέχιση των πληρωµών για την εξυπηρέτηση του χρέουσ, καθώσ και η σταθεροποίηση των ελληνικών τραπεζών σε µια ευρωπαϊκή bad bank», αναφέρει η Deutsche Bank.

ŒÓ· ·Ú¿ÏÏËÏÔ ÓfiÌÈÛÌ· ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ÚÔÙ›ÓÂÈ Ë Deutsche Bank οÓÔÓÙ·˜ ÏfiÁÔ ÁÈ· ÙÔ «Geuro» Σε αυτή την περίπτωση, ένα ελληνικÞ παράλληλο νÞµισµα του ευρώ (το οποίο ονοµάζει Geuro) θα µπορούσε να κάνει την εµφάνισή του. ΑυτÞ, Þπωσ υποστηρίζει, θα επιτρέψει στην Ελλάδα να εφαρµÞσει µια υποτίµηση τησ ισοτιµίασ, χωρίσ τυπικά να έχει βγει απÞ την νοµισµατική ένωση. «Αρχικά θα περιµέναµε µια µεγάλη υποτίµηση, αλλά οι ελληνικέσ Αρχέσ θα είχαν τη δύναµη να σταθεροποιήσουν ή ακÞµη και να ενισχύσουν ξανά την ισοτιµία του Geuro έναντι του ευρώ µέσω µιασ δηµοσιονοµικήσ πολιτικήσ και διαρθρωτικών µεταρρυθµίσεων, έτσι ώστε να αφήσουν ανοιχτή την πÞρτα για µελλοντική επιστροφή στο ευρώ». Ο Γεργκ Ασµουσεν διαβεβαίωσε επίσησ πωσ οι ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ έχουν αυτήν τη στιγµή επαρκή πρÞσβαση σε ρευστÞτητα. Η κεφαλαιοποίησή τουσ δεν αρκεί για να τουσ εγγυηθεί την πρÞσβαση σε «φυσιολογική» χρηµατοδÞτηση απÞ τον θεσµÞ, Þµωσ επωφελούνται απÞ έκτακτη χρηµατοδÞτηση και «έχουν πρÞσβαση σε ρευστÞτητα», εξήγησε.

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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

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∏ STAROIL ‰˘Ó·ÌÈο ÛÙÔ ÏÈ·ÓÈÎfi ÂÌfiÚÈÔ ∆υναµική είσοδο στην κυπριακή αγορά έκανε η STAROIL προσφέροντασ µια νέα επιλογή στουσ καταναλωτέσ και διεκδικώντασ ένα σηµαντικÞ µερίδιο τησ εγχώριασ αγοράσ, επεκτείνοντασ τισ δραστηριÞτητέσ τησ στον τοµέα του λιανικού εµπορίου µε τη λειτουργία πρατηρίων καυσίµων. Το συνεχώσ επεκτεινÞµενο δίκτυο πρατηρίων τησ STAROIL βρίσκεται σε επιλεγµένεσ περιοχέσ. Το πρώτο πρατήριο STAROIL ξεκίνησε τη λειτουργία του την 1η Μαΐου 2011 στο ΑυγÞρου, ενώ στισ 25 Νοεµβρίου του ίδιου έτουσ άνοιξε το δεύτερο πρατήριο στο Τραχώνι. Το τρίτο πρατήριο τησ εταιρείασ STAROIL λειτούργησε στισ 14 Μαΐου 2012 στην περιοχή Ταµασσού. ΕντÞσ των επÞµενων µηνών η εταιρεία προγραµµατίζει περαιτέρω επέκτασή τησ µε το άνοιγµα ακÞµη τριών πρατηρίων. Ùλα τα πρατήρια τησ STAROIL παρέχουν Þλων των ειδών καυσίµων Þπωσ πετρέλαιο κίνησησ και θέρµανσησ, αγροτικÞ, κηροζίνη, βενζίνη 95 και 98 οκτανίων. ∆είχνοντασ ιδιαίτερο σεβασµÞ προσ το περιβάλλον, η STAROIL εγκατέστησε σε Þλα τησ τα πρατήρια, συστήµατα ανάκτη-

10 Ó¤· Ú·Ù‹ÚÈ· ̤¯ÚÈ ÙÔ Ù¤ÏÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ 2013 σησ και επιστροφήσ των ατµών βενζίνησ απÞ τισ αντλίεσ (φάσησ ΙΙ).

O ∆ιευθύνων σύµβουλοσ τησ STAROIL κ. Γιώργοσ Πέτρου δήλωσε: «Η εταιρεία STAROIL

ÕÓÔÈÍ ÙȘ ‡Ï˜ ÙÔ˘ ÙÔ ÌÔ˘ÛÂ›Ô ∑·Ì¤Ï· Άνοιξε τισ πύλεσ του το ιδιωτικÞ µουσείο Λουκίασ και Μιχαλάκη Ζαµπέλα, που στÞχο έχει να δώσει την ευκαιρία σε Þλουσ να κάνουν την Τέχνη κοµµάτι τησ ζωήσ τουσ. Το µουσείο αποτελεί Þραµα τησ οικογένειασ Ζαµπέλα εδώ και 40 χρÞνια και πρÞκειται για έναν µη κερδοσκοπικÞ οργανισµÞ ιδρυθέντα απÞ την εταιρεία ZampelasArt Ltd. Το Μουσείο εγκαινιάζεται µε την έκθεση ζωγραφικήσ του µεγάλου δηµιουργού Παναγιώτη Τέτση «Π. Τέτσησ Ζωγραφική», που σε συνεργασία µε το Ινστιτούτο Σύγχρονησ Ελληνικήσ Τέχνησ τησ Αθήνασ, παρουσιάζει 28 αντιπροσωπευτικά έργα του καλλιτέχνη. Η έκθεση θα παραµείνει ανοικτή µέχρι τισ 2 Σεπτεµβρίου. Η ZampelasArt Ltd δηµιουργώντασ ένα ολοκληρωµένο φορέα Τέχνησ, δηµιούργησε τα τµήµατα: Zmart Gallery, Zmart Shop, Zmart Cafe, Zmart Framing και το περιοδικÞ Journal of Arts. Παράλληλα και µε στÞχο την εκπαίδευση και διαπαιδαγώγηση του κοινού, το Τµήµα Εκπαιδευτικών Προγραµµάτων του Μουσείου (Zmart Education), σχεδιάζει πρωτÞτυπα εκπαιδευτικά προγράµµατα βασισµένα στισ µÞνιµεσ συλλογέσ του, αλλά και στισ περιοδικέσ εκθέσεισ που θα παρουσιάζει στουσ χώρουσ του. Στην ιστοσελίδα www.zampelasart.com, θα βρείτε τα πάντα για τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ τησ ZampelasArt Ltd και του Μουσείου Λουκίασ και Μιχαλάκη Ζαµπέλα.

ξεκίνησε να δραστηριοποιείται στην Κύπρο απÞ το 2006, στον τοµέα τησ εµπορίασ χονδρικήσ πώλησησ καυσίµων και έχει καταστεί σε σύντοµο χρονικÞ διάστηµα η πρώτη εταιρεία που

εισήγαγε και διένειµε καύσιµα σε εµπορικούσ πελάτεσ, βασιζÞµενη στισ χαµηλέσ τιµέσ, την ποιÞτητα και την απευθείασ προµήθεια απÞ την πηγή». Παράλληλα ο κ. Πέτρου ανέφερε πωσ µε τη λειτουργία των 6 πρατηρίων STAROIL, έωσ το τέλοσ του έτουσ, η εταιρεία θα καλύψει ένα σηµαντικÞ ποσοστÞ των γεωγραφικών θέσεων που έχει στρατηγικά επιλέξει, ενώ παράλληλα, στον ευρύτερο σχεδιασµÞ για επέκταση τησ εταιρείασ περιλαµβάνεται η λειτουργία και άλλων τεσσάρων πρατηρίων εντÞσ του 2013. Αξίζει να αναφερθεί πωσ η STAROIL παρέχει τη δυνατÞτητα προµήθειασ καυσίµων σε ανταγωνιστικέσ τιµέσ σε Þλη την Κύπρο, χρησιµοποιώντασ ιδιÞκτητα ή ενοικιαζÞµενα µέσα µεταφοράσ, ενώ διαθέτει µικρά τερµατικά ανεφοδιασµού στισ πλείστεσ πÞλεισ και είναι η µÞνη µε τερµατικÞ κοντά στην Λευκωσία για εφοδιασµÞ καυσίµων σε τιµέσ χονδρικήσ πώλησησ. Επίσησ, οι καταναλωτέσ µπορούν να παραγγείλουν καύσιµα µέσω διαδικτύου, απÞ την ιστοσελίδα τησ Staroil http://www.staroilcyprus.com

‘‘¶Ú¿ÛÈÓ˜’’ ÔÈ ·Ú·Ï›Â˜ Nissi Î·È Fig Tree O ΚυπριακÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Τουρισµού, το Travel Foundation UK και ο ΚυπριακÞσ Σύνδεσµοσ ΑειφÞρου Τουρισµού, σε µια προσπάθεια Þπωσ καταστεί η Κύπροσ πρωτοπÞροσ στη βιώσιµη τουριστική ανάπτυξη, υπέγραψαν και υλοποιούν απÞ το 2010 σχετικÞ πενταετέσ πρÞγραµµα. Στα πλαίσια τησ πενταετούσ συνεργασίασ τουσ για την ΑειφÞρο Ανάπτυξη του Κυπριακού Τουρισµού, θέσπισαν και το πρÞγραµµα «‘Πράσινεσ’ Κυπριακέσ Παραλίεσ. Μετά την πραγµατοποίηση µελέτησ το 2011, προσλήφθηκε διαχειριστήσ του έργου αναλαµβάνοντασ την επίβλεψη του καθώσ και την εφαρµογή των «πράσινων» πρωτοβουλιών σε δύο παραλίεσ (Nissi Beach, Αγία Νάπα και Fig Tree Bay, Πρωταράσ) που επιλεχτήκαν πιλοτικά για το έτοσ 2012. Ανάµεσα στισ δράσεισ του προγράµµατοσ περιλαµβάνονται η καθαριÞτητα τησ παραλίασ και η διατήρηση τησ ποιÞτητασ του νερού µε στÞχο τη δηµιουργία µιασ πρÞτυπησ παραλίασ. Με τη βελτίωση τησ ελκυστικÞτητασ τησ παραλίασ, οι τοπικέσ κοινÞτητεσ και η τουριστική βιοµηχανία στισ περιοχέσ αυτέσ θα είναι σε µια πιο πλεονεκτική θέση να ανταποκριθούν στισ απαιτήσεισ των επισκεπτών και θα καταστούν τισ παραλίεσ σε δηµοφιλείσ αειφÞροι προορισµοί. Στα πλαίσια του προγράµµατοσ πραγµατοποιήθηκε και το πρώτο ενηµερωτικÞ εργαστήρι σε µια προσπάθεια εµπλοκήσ Þλων των ενδιαφερÞµενων φορέων. Η Ειρήνη Γιασεµή, η οποία και έχει αναλάβει την ευθύνη για την καθηµερινή διαχείριση του έργου, δήλωσε Þτι «η µετατροπή

των κυπριακών παραλιών σε πράσινεσ δηλαδή αειφÞρεσ δεν είναι ένασ εύκολοσ στÞχοσ». ΠρÞσθεσε, ωστÞσο, Þτι «παρÞλα αυτά, ανυποµονώ να συνεργαστώ µε Þλουσ τουσ εµπλεκÞµενουσ φορείσ, να καθορίσουµε το ρÞλο που θα διαδραµατίσουν και να διασφαλίσουµε την επιτυχία αυτού του πιλοτικού προγράµµατοσ». «Ελπίζουµε το πρÞγραµµα να θέσει σε ισχύ ένα πλήρωσ υλοποιήσιµο εργαλείο, για την αειφÞρο διαχείριση και χρήση των παράλιών, λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη την ποικιλÞτητα των δραστηριοτήτων και χρήσεων και τισ επιπτώσεισ τουσ», είπε η κ. Γιασεµή. Ο κύριοσ στÞχοσ είναι η δηµιουργία «προτύπου» παραλίασ, µε Þλεσ τισ διευκολύνσεισ και αξιοποίηση τησ τελευταίασ τεχνολογίασ που θα µπορεί να ανταποκρίνεται στισ απαιτήσεισ των επισκεπτών, καταλήγει η ανακοίνωση.

™˘ÓÂÙ·ÈÚÈÛÌfi˜ ϤÔÓ ÙÔ ÁÚ·ÊÂ›Ô ∞ÓÙÒÓË §Ô˝˙Ô˘

¡¤Ô ȉȈÙÈÎfi ·ÓÂÈÛÙ‹ÌÈÔ ÛÙË §¿Úӷη Αρχέσ Σεπτεµβρίου αναµένεται να λειτουργήσει το βρετανικÞ ιδιωτικÞ πανεπιστήµιο, το UCLan Cyprus (Central Lancashire University Cyprus) αποτελούµενο απÞ τρεισ σχολέσ και δέκα περίπου προγράµµατα σπουδών, στην Λάρνακα. ΠρÞκειται για αγγλικÞ ιδιωτικÞ πανεπιστήµιο το UCLan Cyprus, το οποίο ιδρύεται στη περιοχή τησ Πύλασ, στην επαρχία Λάρνακασ µε βάση τη κυπριακή νοµοθεσία. Εχουν ήδη αρχίσει οι εργασίεσ ανέγερσησ του νέου πανεπιστηµίου µε προοπτική αν είναι Þλα έτοιµα µε βάση τισ προϋποθέσεισ που έχει θέσει η Επιτροπή ΑξιολÞγησησ Ιδιωτικών Πανεπιστηµίων να αρχίσει τη λειτουργία του απÞ τον προσεχή Σεπτέµβριο. Το νέο αυτÞ ιδιωτικÞ πανεπιστήµιο θα έχει τρεισ σχολέσ, µε δέκα περίπου προγράµµατα σπουδών κάτι που θα σηµαίνει Þτι η Λάρνακα έχει µια προοπτική περαιτέρω ανάπτυξησ στον εκπαιδευτικÞ τοµέα’. Ενώ η Λάρνακα και η Πάφοσ βρίσκονταν στον δεύτερο χρÞνο για ένταξή τουσ και διεκδίκηση προγραµµάτων σπουδών στο καινούργιο σύστηµα Μεταλυκειακών Ινστιτούτων Επαγγελµατικήσ Εκπαίδευσησ και Κατάρτισησ, αποφασίστηκε Þτι απÞ τη προσεχή ακαδηµαϊκή χρονιά θα λειτουργήσουν και τρία τέτοια προγράµµατα σπουδών στη Λάρνακα.

Στην αναδιοργάνωση και µετεξέλιξη του προχώρησε το Γραφείο Αντώνησ Λοΐζου & Συνεργάτεσ - Εκτιµητέσ και Σύµβουλοι Ακινήτων Βάσει µελέτησ η οποία ετοιµάστηκε απÞ τον διεθνή ελεγκτικÞ οίκο και σύµβουλουσ επιχειρήσεων, PWC, το γραφείο γίνεται πλέον συνεταιρισµÞσ. Μετά απÞ 32 χρÞνια παρουσίασ στην κυπριακή οικοδοµική βιοµηχανία, το Γραφείο Αντώνη Λοΐζου θα ανοίξει τισ πÞρτεσ εισÞδου συνεταίρων, µε στÞχο την προσέλκυση νέων. Αρχικά θα προσεγγισθεί το νεÞτερο επαγγελµατικÞ προσωπικÞ του Γραφείου. Άλλοι επαγγελµατίεσ, µε κατάλληλη πείρα θα είναι επίσησ ευπρÞσδεκτοι. “ΣτÞχοσ είναι να προσελκύσουµε νέουσ chartered surveyors στον τοµέα των ακινήτων, ωσ επίσησ και πολιτικούσ µηχανικούσ για το

τµήµα τησ ∆ιεύθυνσησ ΄Εργων και Εξέτασησ Κτιρίων (building surveys). Επίσησ, επιθυµία είναι η προσέλκυση νέων στον τοµέα των οικονοµικών/διεύθυνσησ επιχειρήσεων κλπ, για το τµήµα του Γραφείου που ασχολείται µε µελέτεσ, πωλήσεισ ακινήτων κλπ. “Τώρα που τα πράγµατα στην οικοδοµική βιοµηχανία δεν είναι ρÞδινα, είναι καιρÞσ για αναδιοργάνωση και αναδίπλωση στη νέα τάξη πραγµάτων που θα ακολουθήσει στην µετά την ύφεση εποχή” ανέφερε ο Α. Λοίζου, και πρÞσθεσε: “Σύντοµα θα ανακοινώσουµε και κάποιεσ κοινοπραξίεσ µε διεθνείσ οίκουσ ακινήτων, ενώ η πρÞσφατη κοινοπραξία µαζί µε τον διεθνή ελεγκτικÞ οίκο και σύµβουλουσ επι-

χειρήσεων, KPMG και το πολυεθνικÞ δικηγορικÞ γραφείο Α. Νεοκλέουσ (ίσωσ το µεγαλύτερο στην Κύπρο που ασχολείται µε ξένουσ επενδυτέσ) είναι η αρχή. Ωσ κοινοπραξία, δηµιουργήσαµε κοινή ιστοσελίδα, ένα είδοσ “one stop shop”, µε στÞχο την προσέλκυση ξένων στην Κύπρο, τÞσο στον τοµέα ανάπτυξησ ακινήτων, Þσο και στουσ υπÞλοιπουσ επιχειρηµατικούσ τοµείσ, που θα περιλαµβάνουν και την διευθέτηση κοινοπραξιών ξένων επιχειρήσεων µε ντÞπιεσ. Θα στοχεύσουµε, εκτÞσ τησ Ρωσίασ, την Κίνα και τισ Αραβικέσ χώρεσ, που φαίνεται να δείχνουν αυξηµένο ενδιαφέρον”.

CIPA: ™ÙËÓ 5Ë ı¤ÛË ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ¶ÚÔÒıËÛË •¤ÓˆÓ ∂ÂÓ‰‡ÛÂˆÓ Στην 5η θέση παγκοσµίωσ κατατάσσεται ο ΚυπριακÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Προώθησησ Επενδύσεων (CIPA) ανάµεσα σε 189 οργανισµούσ για την Προώθηση Ξένων Επενδύσεων ανά τον κÞσµο, στην εφαρµογή Βέλτιστων Πρακτικών για Συγκέντρωση, Ανάλυση και Παροχή ΠληροφÞρησησ για Επενδυτέσ µε στÞχο την Προσέλκυση Επενδύσεων στη χώρα. ΑυτÞ προκύπτει, µε βάση την πρÞσφατη παρουσίαση των αποτελεσµάτων τησ έκθεσησ «Global Investment Promotion Benchmarking 2012» τησ ∆ιεθνούσ Τράπεζασ (World Bank Group). Η αξιολÞγηση έγινε µε βάση τισ δύο ειδικά σχεδιασµένεσ απÞ τη ∆ιεθνή Τράπεζα υποθέσεισ εκδήλωσησ ενδιαφέροντοσ ξένων επενδυτών, η µία στον τοµέα τησ Γεωργίασ και η δεύτερη στον τοµέα του Τουρισµού. Συγκεκριµένα, µε βάση την ανακοίνωση των

αποτελεσµάτων που έγινε κατά το ΠαγκÞσµιο ΕπενδυτικÞ ΦÞρουµ απÞ τη ∆ιεθνή Τράπεζα, στισ 20 Απριλίου 2012, στη ΝτÞχαµ του Κατάρ, η Κύπροσ κατατάσσεται στην 5η θέση.Την πρώτη θέση λαµβάνει η Νικαράγουα, τη δεύτερη η Ουγγαρία, την τρίτη η Ελλάδα και την τέταρτη η Φινλανδία. Η συγκέντρωση, ανάλυση και παροχή πληροφÞρησησ έγινε σε στενή συνεργασία του CIPA µε Κυβερνητικούσ Οργανισµούσ, Επιχειρηµατικούσ Συνδέσµουσ τησ Κύπρου, αλλά και µεµονωµένεσ επιχειρήσεισ Þπωσ Ξενοδοχεία, οι οποίεσ βοήθησαν µε άριστο τρÞπο στην έρευνα. Η έκθεση Global Investment Promotion Benchmarking, αξιολογεί ανά τριετία, τισ ικανÞτητεσ των Οργανισµών Προώθησησ Επενδύσεων σε Þλο τον κÞσµο.

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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

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¢˘Ó·ÌÈ΋ Â¤ÎÙ·ÛË ÙÔ˘ √Ì›ÏÔ˘ §ÂÙfi˜ ÛÙ· ÷ÓÈ¿ Στα Χανιά, την ‘’Βενετία τησ Ανατολήσ’’, φιλοξένησε 15µελή οµάδα δηµοσιογράφων ο Ùµιλοσ εταιρειών ΛεπτÞσ. Η οµάδα διέµενε στο ξενοδοχείο του οµίλου ΠανÞραµα. Το 5* ξενοδοχείο τησ ΛεπτÞσ στα Χανιά, ΠανÞραµα, παραµένει η πρώτη επιλογή για τουσ περισσÞτερουσ Κύπριουσ επισκέπτεσ και Þχι µÞνον, αφού βρίσκεται σε µοναδική τοποθεσία και παρέχει µοναδικέσ καλοκαιρινέσ στιγµέσ µε ‘θέα τη Κρήτη’. Ο Ùµιλοσ ΛεπτÞσ αναπτύχθηκε στην Ελλάδα µε αφετηρία τα Χανιά, το 1999 µε την αγορά του ξενοδοχείου ΠανÞραµα αφού ο πρÞεδροσ του οµίλου Μιχαλάκησ ΛεπτÞσ επισκέφτηκε τη πÞλη που του θύµισε τÞσο πολύ τη γενέτειρα του, την Κερύνεια. Ακολούθησε εκτεταµένη ανακαίνιση έτσι ώστε να προσφέρει την πολυτέλεια και χαρακτήρα αντίστοιχο του ονÞµατοσ τησ ΛεπτÞσ. Το ξενοδοχείο φηµίζεται για την φροντίδα και υπηρεσίεσ του σε πολύ ανταγωνιστικέσ τιµέσ, ειδικέσ για τουσ Κύπριουσ. Ιδιαίτερα ενθαρρυντικÞ και ελπιδοφÞρο για

τον τουριστικÞ τοµέα που έχει θετική επίδραση στον τοµέα των ακινήτων, είναι και η πρÞσφατη δροµολÞγηση πτήσεων τησ Ryan Αir απÞ Πάφο προσ Χανιά σε ιδιαίτερα χαµηλέσ τιµέσ. Αναµφισβήτητα η απευθείασ πτήση απÞ τον αερολιµένα τησ Πάφου προσ τα Χανιά θα συµβάλει σε σηµαντικÞ βαθµÞ στην σύνδεση των δύο µεγαλονήσων τησ Κρήτησ και τησ Κύπρου Þπου αναµένεται η διακίνηση για το έτοσ 2012 πέραν των 600,000 επιβατών. Ο Þµιλοσ ΛεπτÞσ δραστηριοποιείται στον κλάδο των ακινήτων στην Ελλάδα πέραν τησ µιασ δεκαετίασ, µε επίκεντρο το δυτικÞ τµήµα τησ Κρήτησ, τα Χανιά και την ανάπτυξη οικοπέδων σε προνοµιακέσ παραθαλάσσιεσ τοποθεσίεσ. Η εταιρεία έχει επίσησ έργα στα νησιά τησ Πάρου και Σαντορίνησ. Αξίζει να αναφερθεί Þτι ο Þµιλοσ µέχρι τώρα έχει επενδύσει πέραν των 100 εκ. ευρώ για έργα στην Ελλάδα, ενώ προγραµµατίζει την επένδυση 600 εκ. ευρώ για δύο νέα έργα στα Χανιά, το Canea Corniche και το Costa Nopia. Ένα απÞ τα έργα τησ Leptos στα Χανιά, το παραθαλάσσιο «Αφροδίτη», είναι χτισµένο µÞλισ λίγα µέτρα µακριά απÞ µια Þµορφη αµµώδη παραλία, εξ ου και η ονοµασία «Αφροδίτη», Þπωσ η θεά που αναδύθηκε απÞ τη θάλασσα. Τα 50 χρÞνια εµπειρίασ του Οµίλου έχουν διαδραµατίσει βασικÞ ρÞλο στην επιτυχία του Αφροδίτη, χτισµένο µε τα υψηλÞτερα κατασκευαστικά πρÞτυπα και ποιÞτητασ, µε σχεδιασµÞ που προσφέρει αρµονία και άνεση µε µεγάλουσ διαµορφωµένουσ καταπράσινουσ κήπουσ και πισίνα πραγµατικÞ έργο τέχνησ. Επίσησ, η πολύ προσεγµένη προσέγγιση του οµίλου προσ τον επενδυτή αποδεικνύεται µε τουσ ευέλικτουσ Þρουσ πληρωµήσ που προσφέρει η ΛεπτÞσ Ελλάσ, διευκολύνοντασ τον πελάτη σε περίοδο Þπου οι τράπεζεσ δεν είναι πλέον τÞσο ευέλικτεσ στα θέµατα τησ δανειοδÞτηση. Ο Ùµιλοσ εταιρειών ΛεπτÞσ Ελλάσ προσφέρει σε προσιτέσ τιµέσ, µοναδικέσ επενδυτικέσ ευκαιρίεσ.

‘’µÂÓÂÙ›· Ù˘ ∞Ó·ÙÔÏ‹˜’’ Τα Χανιά είναι ένα µέροσ µε σπάνια οµορφιά που συχνά εξυµνείται ωσ η πÞλη των διανοουµένων, τεχνών και των καλλιτεχνών, µε πλούσια ιστορία και πολιτισµÞ και αµέτρητεσ ήσυχεσ παραλίεσ και χωριά - οι επισκέπτεσ θα απολαύσουν σίγουρα την µοναδική φιλοξενία των κατοίκων τησ και θα ζήσουν µοναδικέσ εµπειρίεσ ακολουθώντασ τα ίχνη του παρελθÞντοσ. Η παλιά πÞλη των Χανίων έχει καταφέρει να διατηρήσει την πολιτιστική, πολιτισµική κληρονοµιά και την παραδοσιακή αρχιτεκτονική τησ, αλλά και να συνδυάσει Þµορφα τον σύγχρονο τρÞπο ζωήσ µε µία µεγάλη επιλογή απÞ κοµψά εστιατÞρια , παραδοσιακέσ ταβέρνεσ και µπαρ δίπλα στη θάλασσα, αλλά και µέσα στην παλιά ενετική πÞλη.

Οι λάτρεσ τησ γαστρονοµίασ θα ενθουσιαστούν ιδιαίτερα απÞ τισ αυθεντικέσ γεύσεισ που βασίζονται στα τοπικά προϊÞντα και στην αυθεντική Κρητική κουζίνα τησ περιοχήσ. Μία βÞλτα στα σοκάκια τησ παλιάσ πÞλησ προσφέρει νοσταλγικέσ εικÞνεσ απÞ το παρελθÞν. Μερικά απÞ τα µοναδικά µνηµεία, Þπωσ το Μεγάλο Αρσενάλη, ο ΑιγυπτιακÞσ φάροσ, το βενετσιάνικο ναυπηγείο (Νεώρια), οι παλιέσ εκκλησίεσ και τα επιβλητικά νεοκλασικά κτίρια κ.λπ. µαζί µε την θαλάσσια αύρα του λιµανιού και τα πολύχρωµα τείχη τησ παλιάσ πÞλησ και τη γεύση τησ τοπικήσ κουζίνασ, είναι µÞνο µερικά απÞ τα πράγµατα που κάποιοσ θα αγαπήσει σε αυτÞ τον τÞπο. Κάθε χρÞνο διοργανώνονται πληθώρα πολιτιστικά γεγονÞτα (εκθέσεισ, φεστιβάλ, θεατρικέσ και µουσικέσ παραστάσεισ, κ.λπ.) και ο πολιτισµÞσ τησ πÞλησ ξεδιπλώνεται στα µάτια των επισκεπτών: αρχαιολογικά µέρη, µουσεία, ναοί και ιστορικέσ περιοχέσ αποκαλύπτουν την πορεία αυτού του υπέροχου τÞπου µέσα στο χρÞνο. Τα Χανιά χαρακτηρίζονται απÞ πλούσια πολιτιστική παράδοση. Η κρητική λαϊκή παράδοση συχνά αποτυπώνεται στα έργα λαϊκήσ τέχνησ (υφαντουργία, κεραµική, ξυλογλυπτική, κ.λπ.) και στην καλλιτεχνική έκφραση των ντÞπιων γενικά. Στα Χανιά µπορείτε επίσησ να βρείτε µοναδικά χειροποίητα αντικείµενα απÞ γυαλί, ξύλο, µέταλλο και κεραµικÞ. Η πÞλη διαθέτει διεθνέσ αεροδρÞµιο και το λιµάνι τησ Σούδασ, το οποίο είναι ίσωσ το µεγαλύτερο φυσικÞ λιµάνι τησ Μεσογείου.

§·˚΋: ¶‹Ú ·Ú¿Ù·ÛË Ô ‰ÈÔÚÈÛÌfi˜ ÙˆÓ «G5» Η Επιτροπή Οικονοµικών τησ Βουλήσ, που συνήλθε χθεσ για να εξετάσει το διορισµÞ πέντε συµβούλων του κράτουσ στο ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ, µετά και το ∆ιάταγµα, που θέλει την Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία να λειτουργεί ωσ ανάδοχοσ τησ έκδοσησ κεφαλαίου τησ Τράπεζασ ύψουσ 1,8 δισ ευρώ, µέσω ∆ικαιωµάτων Προτίµησησ, θα συνεδριάσει εκ νέου σήµερα στισ 9 το πρωϊ, µιασ και χθεσ επήλθε αδιέξοδο στισ συζητήσεισ.

ªÂ›ˆÛË ·Ô‰Ô¯ÒÓ 12,5% Σύµφωνα µε το διάταγµα και το νÞµο περί τραπεζικών κρίσεων ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών έχει τη δικαιοδοσία να διορίσει µέχρι πέντε µέλη του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ τράπεζασ. Τα ονÞµατα που θα συζητηθούν θα πρέπει στη συνέχεια να λάβουν την έγκριση τησ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών. ΕντÞσ των επÞµενων βδοµάδων η Τράπεζα θα ορίσει, µε τη σύµφωνη γνώµη του υπουργείου Οικονοµικών, τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ και τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών, ανεξάρτητο σύµβουλο, που θα καταρτίσει σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ. Μέροσ του σχεδίου αποτελεί η µείωση των µισθολογικών και λειτουργικών δαπανών τησ Τράπεζασ την επÞµενη διετία, µε στÞχο την εξοικονÞµηση πÞρων, που θα επιτρέψουν στην τράπεζα να

∫‡Ì· ƒÒÛˆÓ ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÙÒÓ ÛÙËÓ ¶¿ÊÔ ΠληρÞτητεσ µέχρι και 70 % παρουσιάζουν αρκετά ξενοδοχεία τησ Πάφου αυτή την περίοδο, γεγονÞσ πολύ ικανοποιητικÞ για την τουριστική βιοµηχανία. Την µεγάλη διαφορά κάνουν φέτοσ οι τουρίστεσ απÞ τη Ρωσία οι οποίοι στην κυριολεξία έχουν κατακλύσει την πÞλη του Κινύρα. Σε δηλώσεισ του ο εκπρÞσωποσ του Συνδέσµου Τουριστικών Επιχειρήσεων Πάφου ∆ηµήτρησ Σµυρλήσ ανέφερε Þτι ο τουρισµÞσ απÞ τη Ρωσία ανακούφισε κάπωσ την οικονοµική κατάσταση τησ πÞλησ και επαρχίασ, που έχει πληγεί σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ απÞ την οικονοµική κρίση. Να σηµειωθεί Þτι οι επιχειρηµατίεσ που δραστηριοποιούνται µε τον τουρισµÞ, έχουν αναγκαστεί να προσλάβουν και ΡωσÞφωνο προσωπικÞ για να εξυπηρετούν τουσ Ρώσουσ τουρίστεσ οι οποίοι διέψευσαν τισ φοβίεσ που εξέφρασαν οι ξενοδÞχοι για τισ αρχέσ του καλοκαιριού.

παρουσιάσει κερδοφορία. Σύµφωνα µε το διάταγµα η µείωση των αποδοχών και ωφεληµάτων του προσωπικού στην Κύπρο θα ανέρχεται κατά µέσον Þρο τουλάχιστο στο 12,5% σε ετήσια βάση και θα εφαρµοστεί κλιµακωτά, κατÞπιν διαβούλευσησ µε τισ συνδικαλιστικέσ οργανώσεισ. Η µείωση στα έξοδα προσωπικού αναµένεται να προσεγγίσει το 10% για το 2012 σε επίπεδο οµίλου σε σχέση µε το 2011 και επιπρÞσθετα κατά 8% το 2013 ενώ τα λειτουργικά έξοδα θα µειωθούν κατά 7% το 2012. Στην χθεσινή συνεδρία προέκυψαν σοβαρέσ διαφωνίεσ, µε τουσ βουλευτέσ των κοµµάτων τησ αντιπολίτευσησ να αξιώνουν το διορισµÞ πέντε µελών στο ∆Σ τησ Λαϊκήσ, αντί δύο µελών που ήταν η πρÞταση του Υπουργείου. Ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Βάσοσ Σιαρλή χαρακτήρισε ωσ διαδικαστικά τα προβλήµατα που προέκυψαν και πωσ σήµερα θα επιλυθούν υπογραµµίζοντασ πωσ δεν συζητήθηκαν ονÞµατα. Σύµφωνα µε τον ΥπουργÞ στο ∆Σ τησ Λαϊκήσ που είναι 15µελέσ υπάρχουν µÞνο δύο κενέσ θέσεισ, γι αυτÞ, Þπωσ εξήγησε, επιβάλλεται ο διορισµÞσ µÞνο δύο µελών και Þχι µέχρι πέντε Þπωσ προβλέπει το σχετικÞ διάταγµα. Μετά και απÞ αυτή την εξέλιξη, ο Βάσοσ Σιαρλή άρχισε διαβουλεύσεισ µε το διοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ

Τράπεζασ, Πανίκο ∆ηµητριάδη, µε στÞχο την άρση του αδιεξÞδου. Την ίδια ώρα η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα ανακοίνωνε τισ παραιτήσεισ των Κωνσταντίνου Μυλωνά και Νεοκλή Λυσάνδρου απÞ τη θέση του Αντιπροέδρου και Μέλουσ του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Τράπεζασ, ανοίγοντασ έτσι το δρÞµο για το διορισµÞ των συµβούλων του κράτουσ στη διοίκηση του Οµίλου. «Οι κ.κ Μυλωνάσ και Λυσάνδρου επέλεξαν να αποχωρήσουν οικιοθελώσ, ώστε να δηµιουργηθούν διαθέσιµεσ θέσεισ για διορισµÞ νέων Μελών, σύµφωνα µε το ΚαταστατικÞ τησ Τράπεζασ αλλά και το πρÞσφατο ∆ιάταγµα του Υπουργού Οικονοµικών περί τησ Αναδοχήσ των ∆ικαιωµάτων Προτίµησησ τησ Τράπεζασ», ανακοίνωσε η τράπεζα.

™ÙȘ 29 ª·˚Ô˘ Ù· ·ÔÙÂϤÛÌ·Ù· ·’ ÙÚÈÌ‹ÓÔ˘ Εν τω µεταξύ Þπωσ ανακοίνωσε η τράπεζα το ∆ιοικητικÞ τησ Συµβούλιο θα συνέλθει την Τρίτη 29 Μαΐου, 2012 για να εξετάσει, µεταξύ άλλων, τα Οικονοµικά Αποτελέσµατα για την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου - Μαρτίου 2012. Τα αποτελέσµατα θα ανακοινωθούν στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών και στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου την ίδια ηµέρα.

™Ù· €2200 ÂÎ. ÔÈ Û˘Ó·ÏÏ·Á¤˜ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ – ∞˘ÛÙÚ›·˜ ªÂÁ¿ÏÔ ÂȯÂÈÚËÌ·ÙÈÎfi ÂӉȷʤÚÔÓ Υπάρχει µεγάλο επιχειρηµατικÞ ενδιαφέρον απÞ πλευράσ τησ Αυστρίασ για την Κύπρο, δήλωσε ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Αυστρίασ Χάιντσ Φίσερ, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι υπάρχουν επίσησ εξαιρετικέσ δυνατÞτητεσ για συνεργασία των δύο χωρών στουσ τοµείσ τησ οικονοµίασ. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Αυστρίασ, ο οποίοσ µαζί µε τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ∆ηµήτρη ΧριστÞφια, παρευρέθηκαν και µίλησαν στο επιχειρηµατικÞ φÞρουµ που διοργάνωσε το ΟικονοµικÞ Επιµελητήριο Αυστρίασ, στη Βιέννη, έκανε ιδιαίτερη αναφορά στην ανεύρεση φυσικού αερίου στην κυπριακή ΑΟΖ, επισηµαίνοντασ Þτι ο φυσικÞσ πλούτοσ τησ Κύπρου αποτελεί µια καλή βάση για µια σύγχρονη οικονοµία. Ùπωσ υπογραµµίστηκε και απÞ τισ δύο πλευρέσ ο τοµέασ τησ ενέργειασ, µπορεί να αποτελέσει πεδίο ανάληψησ επιχειρηµατικήσ συνεργασίασ των δύο χωρών. Το γεγονÞσ αυτÞ αποδεικνύεται και απÞ το µεγάλο επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον που άρχισε ήδη να επιδεικνύεται για τη Κύπρο σύµφωνα µε τον ΠρÞεδρο ΧριστÞφια.

Να σηµειωθεί πωσ οι εισαγωγέσ-εξαγωγέσ µεταξύ των δύο χωρών υπερβαίνουν τα 200 εκατοµµύρια ευρώ, ενώ οι εξαγωγέσ εκατέρωθεν έχουν εξαπλασιαστεί τα τελευταία 15 χρÞνια.

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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

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10 ¯ÚfiÓÈ· ÌÂÙ¿ ÙËÓ ¯ÚÂÔÎÔ›· Ù˘ ∞ÚÁÂÓÙÈÓ‹˜ Η Αργεντινή βίωσε µια βαθιά οικονοµική κρίση απÞ το 1998 έωσ το 2002. Ουσιαστικά Þµωσ η κρίση άρχισε να σιγοκαίει απÞ το 1983, χρονιά κατάρρευσησ τησ δικτατορίασ στη χώρα. Ο δανεισµÞσ που απαίτησε η ανασυγκρÞτηση βάρυνε επικίνδυνα την Αργεντινή, δηµιουργώντασ στην αρχή µια πλασµατική ευφορία, οδηγώντασ Þµωσ στη συνέχεια στην κατάρρευση του νοµίσµατÞσ τησ (του αουστράλ που είχε αντικαταστήσει το πέσο). Η µία µετά την άλλη υποτίµηση του νεÞκοπου νοµίσµατοσ, αλλά και οι αδυναµίεσ τησ τÞτε κυβέρνησησ στο οικονοµικÞ µέτωπο οδήγησαν σε υπερπληθωρισµÞ. Έτσι, το 1991 ελήφθη η απÞφαση το πέσο να “δεθεί” στο αµερικανικÞ δολάριο, υπÞ τισ ευλογίεσ του ∆ΝΤ, για να αποκαταστήσει την εµπιστοσύνη και να αντιµετωπίσει τον υπερπληθωρισµÞ. Η πρακτική αυτή δούλεψε για λίγο. Ο πληθωρισµÞσ έπεσε, η αξία του νοµίσµατοσ διατηρήθηκε και πολλοί πολίτεσ µπορούσαν πια να ταξιδεύουν στο εξωτερικÞ, να αγοράζουν εισαγÞµενα αγαθά και να ζητούν δάνεια σε δολάρια µε χαµηλά επιτÞκια. Με τον καιρÞ Þµωσ η Αργεντινή αντιµετώπισε τα µειονεκτήµατα του να έχει σταθερή ισοτιµία. ∆ένοντασ το πέσο στο άρµα του δολαρίου, οι Αργεντίνοι υιοθέτησαν ένα νÞµισµα του οποίου η ισοτιµία είχε ελάχιστη σχέση µε τισ οικονοµικέσ τουσ συνθήκεσ. Ήταν µια περίοδοσ που το ήδη τεράστιο χρέοσ τησ χώρασ σε δολάρια πήρε την ανιούσα, µαζί µε τισ ανάγκεσ τησ για συνεχή δανεισµÞ, ενώ οι δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ φούσκωναν σε µια οικονοµία Þπου η διαφθορά κυριαρχούσε. Και εν µέσω Þλων αυτών το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο έδινε δάνεια, τα οποία ουσιαστικά έπεφταν σε ένα βαρέλι δίχωσ πάτο. Ùταν το βραζιλιάνικο ρεάλ βυθίστηκε το 1999, το πέσο δεν µπÞρεσε να ακολουθήσει, καθιστώντασ τισ αργεντίνικεσ εξαγωγέσ πολύ πιο ακριβέσ απÞ αυτέσ του γείτονα. Η πτώση στισ παγκÞσµιεσ τιµέσ αγροτικών προϊÞντων και η παγκÞσµια οικονοµική κρίση απλά επιδείνωσαν τα προβλήµατα τησ Αργεντινήσ. Οι ξένοι επενδυτέσ και αγοραστέσ διαπίστωσαν πωσ τα δολάριά τουσ µπορούσαν να αγοράσουν περισσÞτερα στη Βραζιλία απÞ Þ,τι στην Αργεντινή, µε συνέπεια οι ξένεσ επενδύσεισ να γίνουν καπνÞσ και οι εξαγωγέσ αέρασ. Το 1999 το ΑΕΠ τησ χώρασ µειώθηκε κατά 4% και η χώρα εισήλθε σε περίοδο ύφεσησ, που κράτησε τρία χρÞνια και κατέληξε σε µια δραµατική κατάρρευση. Στο τιµÞνι ήταν τÞτε ο Φερνάντο ντε λα Ρούα. Τον ∆εκέµβριο του 2000 το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο (∆ΝΤ) συµφώνησε να παράσχει στη χώρα δάνειο 40 δισ. δολ. για να καταφέρει να βγει απÞ την κρίση. Το πακέτο Þµωσ που συνÞδευε το δάνειο προέβλεπε µέτρα λιτÞτητασ, Þπωσ αυξήσεισ τησ φορολογίασ και µειώσεισ στα προγράµµατα κοινωνικήσ πρÞνοιασ. Μετά απÞ µια δύσκολη χρονιά, στισ 5 ∆εκεµβρίου του 2001, το ∆ΝΤ ανακοίνωνε Þτι δεν θα εκταµιεύσει την δÞση του 1,3 δισ. δολ. στην Αργεντινή, αφού τα µέτρα λιτÞτητασ δεν ήταν αρκετά σκληρά.

θηκαν µε την απώλεια ανθρώπινων ζωών. Πέντε χιλιάδεσ πολίτεσ µαζεύτηκαν έξω απÞ το σπίτι του υπουργού Οικονοµικών, Καβάγιο, χτυπώντασ κατσαρÞλεσ και τηγάνια, αναγκάζοντάσ τον µετά απÞ µία ώρα να παραιτηθεί, παίρνοντασ στη συνέχεια µαζί του Þλο το υπουργικÞ συµβούλιο. Ο πρÞεδροσ τησ χώρασ Φερνάντο Ντε λα Ρούα χρειάστηκε ελικÞπτερο για να διαφύγει ανοίγοντασ τον δρÞµο στην πολιτική κρίση. Η ενδιάµεση κυβέρνηση που ακολούθησε δήλωσε αδυναµία να αντιµετωπίσει την κατάσταση και, προτού δει την έξοδο, ανακοίνωσε στισ 25 ∆εκεµβρίου του 2001 την αναστολή των πληρωµών στο ύψουσ 132 δισ. δολ. χρέοσ τησ.

3/1/02 Ë Â›ÛËÌË ¯ÚÂÔÎÔ›·

∆ÔÓ ¢ÂΤ̂ÚÈÔ ÙÔ˘ 2001 ÔÈ ∞ÚÁÂÓÙ›ÓÔÈ, ÊÔ‚Ô‡ÌÂÓÔÈ ˆ˜ Ù· ¤ÛÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ ı· ˘ÔÙÈÌËıÔ‡Ó Î·Ù¤Ê˘Á·Ó ÛÙȘ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜, ı¤ÏÔÓÙ·˜ Ó· Ù· ÌÂÙ·ÙÚ¤„Ô˘Ó Û ‰ÔÏ¿ÚÈ· Û ¤Ó· ÚÔ˜ ¤Ó· ÈÛÔÙÈÌ›·. √È ÂÚÈÔÚÈÛÌÔ› ÙˆÓ ·Ó·Ï‹„ÂˆÓ Ô˘ ·ÎÔÏÔ‡ıËÛ·Ó, ÚÔÎÂÈ̤ÓÔ˘ Ó· ÌËÓ Î·Ù·ÚÚ‡ÛÂÈ ÙÔ ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎfi Û‡ÛÙËÌ·, ÚÔοÏÂÛ·Ó Î‡Ì· ı˘ÌÔ‡ Î·È ·‚‚·ÈfiÙËÙ·˜ Û fiÏË ÙË ¯ÒÚ·. •ÂÎÈÓÒÓÙ·˜ ·fi ÙËÓ Â·Ú¯›· Ô ÎfiÛÌÔ˜ ¿Ú¯ÈÛ ӷ ÏÂËÏ·Ù› ÛÔ‡ÂÚ Ì¿ÚÎÂÙ, Ì ÙȘ ÂÍÂÁ¤ÚÛÂȘ Ó· ÂÂÎÙ›ÓÔÓÙ·È ÛÙ·‰È·Î¿

§ÂËÏ·Û›· Î·È ·‚‚·ÈfiÙËÙ· Οι συνέπειεσ τησ συνεχιζÞµενησ ύφεσησ σε συνδυασµÞ µε τα σκληρά µέτρα δηµιούργησαν µια εκρηκτική κατάσταση. Τον ∆εκέµβριο του 2001 οι Αργεντίνοι, φοβούµενοι πωσ τα πέσοσ του θα υποτιµηθούν κατέφυγαν στισ τράπεζεσ, θέλοντασ να τα µετατρέψουν σε δολάρια σε ένα προσ ένα ισοτιµία. Οι περιορισµοί των αναλήψεων που ακολούθησαν, προκειµένου να µην καταρρεύσει το τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα, προκάλεσαν κύµα θυµού και αβεβαιÞτητασ σε Þλη τη χώρα. Ξεκινώντασ απÞ την επαρχία ο κÞσµοσ άρχισε να λεηλατεί σούπερ µάρκετ, µε τισ εξεγέρσεισ να επεκτείνονται σταδιακά και στο Μπουένοσ Άιρεσ. Η χώρα κηρύχθηκε σε κατάσταση έκτακτησ ανάγκησ και η πολιτική αδυναµία ήταν εµφανήσ. Ο κÞσµοσ οργισµένοσ ξεχύθηκε στουσ δρÞµουσ του Μπουένοσ Άιρεσ, Þχι µÞνο οι άνεργοι, αλλά και οι µικροµεσαίοι που επλήγησαν απÞ τουσ οικονοµικούσ περιορισµούσ. Οι βίαιεσ διαµαρτυρίεσ των τελευταίων ηµερών του ∆εκεµβρίου του 2001 στην Plaza de Mayo κατέληξαν σε συγκρούσεισ µεταξύ διαδηλωτών και αστυνοµίασ που κορυφώ-

Την έκρυθµη κατάσταση ανέλαβε να διαχειριστεί ο νέοσ πρÞεδροσ, Εντουάρντο Ντουάλντε, µε πρώτη κίνηση την κατάργηση τησ σταθερήσ ισοτιµίασ πέσο-δολαρίου. Το πέσο έπεσε στα τάρταρα. Στισ 3 Ιανουαρίου του 2002 η Αργεντινή χρεοκÞπησε και επίσηµα, αφού δεν κατάφερε να ανταποκριθεί σε πληρωµή οµολÞγων 28 εκατ. δολ. Η πτώση του πέσο έφερε αρχικά χάοσ, εκτινάσσοντασ τον πληθωρισµÞ. Το βιοτικÞ επίπεδο του µέσου Αργεντίνου έπεσε σηµαντικά, πολλέσ εταιρείεσ έκλεισαν ή χρεοκÞπησαν, πολλά εισαγÞµενα προϊÞντα έγιναν κυριολεκτικά απρÞσιτα.

∫·È ÌÂÙ¿ ‹ÚıÂ Ë ·Ó¿Î·Ì„Ë Ο Ντουάλντε κατάφερε να σταθεροποιήσει σε ένα βαθµÞ την κατάσταση και στη συνέχεια προκήρυξε εκλογέσ. Τον Μάιο του 2003 τα ηνία τησ χώρασ πήρε ο Νέστωρ Κίρσνερ, διατηρώντασ τον υπουργÞ Οικονοµικών του προκατÞχου του στη θέση του. Σταδιακά η βιοµηχανία και η γεωργία µπήκαν σε φάση ανασυγκρÞτησησ. Οι οικονοµικοί ρυθµοί άρχισαν να αποκτούν υψηλά θετικά πρÞσηµα. Το νέο παραγωγικÞ µοντέλο σε συνδυασµÞ µε τα µέτρα ελέγχου των δαπανών είχαν ωσ αποτέλεσµα τη σταδιακή ανατίµηση του πέσο. Το 2005 η κυβέρνηση κατέληξε σε συµφωνία, ώστε το µεγαλύτερο κοµµάτι των χρεοκοπηµένων τησ οµολÞγων να ανταλλαχθεί απÞ άλλα, µε χαµηλÞτερη ονοµαστική αξία. ΑκÞµα και το ∆ΝΤ χαιρέτισε την ανταλλαγή, µπαίνοντασ σε νέεσ διαπραγµατεύσεισ µε τη χώρα. Μετά τισ τελευταίεσ συµφωνίεσ µε τουσ πιστωτέσ τησ η Αργεντινή έχει διευθετήσει περίπου το 92% του χρέουσ απÞ τη χρεοκοπία τησ το 2001, ενώ έχει αποπληρώσει χρήµατα που η χώρα δανείσθηκε απÞ το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο. Πάντωσ η Αργεντινή πληρώνει ακÞµα τη χρεοκοπία τησ. Αν και πέτυχε συµφωνίεσ µε την πλειοψηφία των πιστωτών τησ, δεν µπορεί ακÞµα να δανειστεί απÞ τισ ξένεσ αγορέσ.

75 ÂηÙÔÌ̇ÚÈ· ¿ÓÂÚÁÔÈ Û fiÏÔ ÙÔÓ ÎfiÛÌÔ l √È

ÂÚÈÛÛfiÙÂÚÔÈ Â›Ó·È Ó¤ÔÈ ËÏÈΛ·˜ 15 ˆ˜ 24 ÂÙÒÓ

Το ποσοστÞ τησ ανεργίασ µεταξύ των νέων για το 2012, σε παγκÞσµια κλίµακα, επανήλθε σχεδÞν στο υψηλÞτερο καταγεγραµµένο επίπεδο ιστορικά µετά το ξέσπασµα τησ διεθνούσ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ και δεν αναµένεται να µειωθεί πριν το 2016 τουλάχιστον, Þπωσ αναφέρει µια έκθεση του ΠαγκÞσµιου Οργανισµού Εργασίασ. Σε παγκÞσµια κλίµακα, οι άνεργοι ανέρχονται σε σχεδÞν 75 εκατοµµύρια

στο ηλικιακÞ φάσµα 15 ωσ 24 ετών το 2012, αριθµÞσ αυξηµένοσ κατά σχεδÞν τέσσερα εκατοµµύρια απÞ το 2007, σύµφωνα µε την έκθεση, η οποία τιτλοφορείται ‘’ΠαγκÞσµιεσ τάσεισ στην απασχÞληση των νέων’’. Τα στοιχεία του Οργανισµού δείχνουν Þτι το 12,7% των νέων είναι άνεργοι εφέτοσ, ποσοστÞ σχεδÞν ίσο µε το αποκορύφωµα τησ κρίσησ το 2009 (75,4 εκατ.) και ελαφρά ανώτερο

απÞ την περασµένη χρονιά, Þταν η ανεργία έπληττε το 12,6% των νέων. Το ποσοστÞ αυτÞ είναι ακÞµη πιο αυξηµένο, σύµφωνα µε τουσ ειδικούσ του οργανισµού, εάν συµπεριληφθούν εκείνοι που, αποθαρρυµένοι απÞ την έλλειψη προοπτικών, έχουν εγκαταλείψει την αναζήτηση εργασίασ: σε αυτή την περίπτωση, το ποσοστÞ των νέων παγκοσµίωσ που είναι άνεργοι αυξάνεται στο 13,6%.

∞ӷοÌÙÂÈ ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ¢ÔÍԇϷ ¶·Û¯·Ï›‰Ô˘ ¢È‡ı˘ÓÛË ¢È·¯ÂÈÚ›Ûˆ˜ ¢È·ıÂۛ̈Ó, Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd Άνοδο παρουσιάζει στισ αρχέσ τησ εβδοµάδασ το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα έναντι του δολαρίου ΗΠΑ καθώσ το µεσηµέρι τησ Τρίτησ τυγχάνει διαπραγµάτευσησ περί τα 1,2780 σε σχέση µε 1,2680 που βρισκÞταν την περασµένη Τετάρτη. Σηµειώνεται Þτι το ευρώ κατέγραψε την Παρασκευή χαµηλÞ 4 µηνών ($1,2640). Η βελτίωση τησ διάθεσησ για ανάληψη κινδύνου και η δέσµευση των ηγετών του οµίλου G8 να υιοθετηθούν µέτρα στήριξησ τησ οικονοµικήσ δραστηριÞτητασ και τησ αγοράσ εργασίασ ευνοούν το ευρώ. Συγκεκριµένα, στο κείµενο συµπερασµάτων τησ ΣυνÞδου του G8 αναφέρεται Þτι βασικÞ στÞχο αποτελεί η προώθηση τησ ανάπτυξησ και τησ απασχÞλησησ. Αναφέρεται Þτι πραγµατοποιούνται συζητήσεισ στην Ευρωζώνη σχετικά µε µέτρα τÞνωσησ τησ οικονοµικήσ δραστηριÞτητασ, παράλληλα µε την εφαρµογή πολιτικών δηµοσιονοµικήσ προσαρµογήσ. Τέλοσ αναφέρθηκε Þτι πρÞθεση των κρατών του G8 αποτελεί η παραµονή τησ Ελλάδοσ στην Ευρωζώνη µε εφαρµογή του συµφωνηθέντοσ οικονοµικού προγράµµατοσ. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη, µέλοσ τησ ΕΚΤ θεωρεί Þτι η εφαρµογή µέτρων µείωσησ του δηµοσιονοµικού ελλείµµατοσ σε

κράτη τα οποία αντιµετωπίζουν χρηµατοοικονοµικά προβλήµατα είναι αναπÞφευκτη. Εκτιµά ωστÞσο, Þτι ενδεχοµένωσ είναι αναγκαία η ενίσχυση του προϋπολογισµού τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, ώστε να µπορεί να χρηµατοδοτηθεί η αύξηση των κεφαλαίων που θα παρέχονται απÞ τα διαρθρωτικά ταµεία τησ Ε.Ε. προσ τισ χώρεσ που αντιµετωπίζουν αναπτυξιακά προβλήµατα. Ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών τησ Γερµανίασ δήλωσε Þτι η Γερµανία και η Γαλλία θα κάνουν Þτι χρειαστεί, ώστε να διασφαλιστεί Þτι η Ελλάδα θα παραµείνει στην Ευρωζώνη. Το ενδιαφέρον τησ αγοράσ εστιάζεται την τρέχουσα εβδοµάδα στην άτυπη Σύνοδο Κορυφήσ τησ Ε.Ε. στισ 23 Μαΐου. Ùσον αφορά τισ οικονοµικέσ εξελίξεισ, στην Ευρωζώνη ο πληθωρισµÞσ διαµορφώθηκε τον Απρίλιο στο 2,6%, παραµένοντασ υψηλÞτερα του στÞχου τησ ΕΚΤ (<2%) για 17ο συνεχή µήνα. Στισ ΗΠΑ, οι αιτήσεισ για επιδÞµατα ανεργίασ διαµορφώθηκαν την περασµένη εβδοµάδα στισ 370.000 ενώ ο δείκτησ µεταποίησησ Φιλαδέλφεια Fed υποχώρησε το Μάιο στο χαµηλÞτερο επίπεδο (-5,8, Απρίλιοσ: 8,5) απÞ το Σεπτέµβριο του 2011. Τέλοσ, µέλοσ τησ Οµοσπονδιακήσ Τράπεζασ των ΗΠΑ δήλωσε Þτι η Fed θα µπορούσε να προβεί σε νέο πρÞγραµµα ποσοτικήσ χαλάρωσησ, εφÞσον καταγραφÞταν σηµαντική επιδείνωση τησ οικονοµικήσ κατάστασησ στισ ΗΠΑ και άνοδοσ του ποσοστού ανεργίασ.

∫·È ÙÒÚ· ÙÔ Ê·ÈÓfiÌÂÓÔ… bank run Ο κίνδυνοσ µαζικήσ φυγήσ καταθέσεων απÞ τισ τράπεζεσ (αυτÞ που οι Αγγλοσάξονεσ αποκαλούν bank run) εξελίσσεται στον κυριÞτερο πονοκέφαλο των κυβερνήσεων στην Ευρωπεριφέρεια. Κανένα τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα στον κÞσµο δεν µπορεί να αντέξει κάτι τέτοιο, καθώσ η ρευστÞτητα που διατηρούν οι τράπεζεσ αποτελεί µέροσ των καταθέσεων που έχουν εισπράξει. Η υποβάθµιση 26 ιταλικών και 16 ισπανικών τραπεζών απÞ τη Moody’s την προηγούµενη εβδοµάδα, ήρθε να υπογραµµίσει το µέγεθοσ του πλήγµατοσ που έχουν δεχθεί οι τράπεζεσ απÞ την κρίση χρέουσ και την ύφεση στισ οικονοµίεσ τησ περιφέρειασ. Ùπωσ ανακοινώθηκε Þτι το ποσοστÞ των µη εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων στα χαρτοφυλάκια των ισπανικών τραπεζών έφτασε το Μάρτιο το 8,36% - το υψηλÞτερο ποσοστÞ των 18 τελευταίων ετών. Σύµφωνα µε δηµοσίευµα τησ El Mundo (που Þµωσ διαψεύστηκε απÞ την κυβέρνηση) µέσα σε λίγεσ ηµέρεσ υπήρξε εκροή καταθέσεων 1 δισ. ευρώ απÞ την Bankia, την τράπεζα που κρατικοποιήθηκε προ δεκαηµέρου. Εδώ και εβδοµάδεσ καταγράφονται σηµαντικέσ εκροέσ κεφαλαίων απÞ τισ οικονοµίεσ τησ περιφέρειασ προσ εκείνεσ του «πυρήνα» τησ Ευρωζώνησ και τησ Βρετανίασ. Το Λονδίνο είναι ένασ απÞ τουσ δηµοφιλέστερουσ προορισµούσ Þσων αναζητούν καταφύγιο για τισ αποταµιεύσεισ τουσ. Ήδη απÞ το 2010 αυξήθηκαν κατακÞρυφα οι αγορέσ ακινήτων στη βρετανική πρωτεύουσα απÞ Έλληνεσ. Στη συνέχεια παρατηρήθηκε η ίδια τάση απÞ Ισπανούσ και Ιταλούσ ενώ, σύµφωνα µε το Spiegel, τουσ τελευταίουσ µήνεσ έντονη είναι η παρουσία των Γάλλων - γεγονÞσ που ερµηνεύεται ωσ ενδεικτικÞ Þτι η κρίση απειλεί, πλέον τη δεύτερη µεγαλύτερη οικονοµία τησ Ευρωζώνησ.ΥπÞ αυτέσ τισ συνθήκεσ, ουδείσ θα ήθελε να µάθει τισ συνέπειεσ ενÞσ bunk run στην Ελλάδα. Ήδη οι καταθέσεισ που «έφυγαν» απÞ την Ελλάδα µέσα σε µια µέρα ήταν 700 εκ. ευρώ και τα περιθώρια αντοχήσ του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ στενεύουν.

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∫·È ÌfiÓÔ ÛÙË ÛΤ„Ë ÙÚÔÌ¿˙ÂÈ Ë ÂÈÛÙÚÔÊ‹ ÛÙË ‰Ú·¯Ì‹ l ÿÛˆ˜

·Ú¤Ì‚ÂÈ Î·È Ô ÛÙÚ·Ùfi˜

Mια πραγµατική κÞλαση θα ζήσει η Eλλάδα το πρώτο διάστηµα, αν φύγει απÞ τη ζώνη του ευρώ και επιστρέψει στη δραχµή. H εκτίµηση αυτή δεν αποτελεί σενάριο επιστηµονικήσ φαντασίασ, αλλά ούτε µεταφέρεται απÞ κάποιουσ που θέλουν να τροµάξουν τουσ ψηφοφÞρουσ, αλλά είναι µία πραγµατικÞτητα, που απαιτείται να ληφθεί σοβαρά υπÞψη απÞ Þλουσ τουσ Έλληνεσ, πολιτικούσ και πολίτεσ, και να καταβληθεί η µέγιστη δυνατή προσπάθεια ώστε να αποφευχθεί ένα τέτοιο ενδεχÞµενο.

Oι πρώτεσ επιπτώσεισ στην περίπτωση αποχώρησησ απÞ το ευρώ θα είναι οι ελλείψεισ βασικών προϊÞντων που εισάγονται.

Kαύσιµα, φάρµακα, τρÞφιµα, πρώτεσ ύλεσ για τη βιοµηχανία.

Mετενέργεια των παραπάνω η έλλειψη αστυνÞµευσησ και πιθανÞτατα κίνδυνοσ για την εθνική ασφάλεια, είναι µÞνο µερικά απÞ τα επακÞλουθα ενÞσ τέτοιου εφιαλτικού σεναρίου.

Mε δεδοµένο, µάλιστα, Þτι η Ελλάδα, σε αντίθεση µε την Αργεντινή, εισάγει σχεδÞν τα πάντα, οπÞτε γίνεται αντιληπτÞ Þτι τουλάχιστον για ένα µεγάλο χρονικÞ διάστηµα, που µπορεί να είναι απÞ έξι έωσ και δώδεκα µήνεσ, η Ελλάδα δεν θα µπορεί να εισάγει απολύτωσ τίποτε ή για την ακρίβεια οι Þποιεσ εισαγωγέσ θα γίνονται µε «αίµα, δάκρια και ιδρώτα».

Mέσα σε αυτÞ το περιβάλλον, που θα θυµίζει την κÞλαση του ∆άντη, οι µÞνοι που θα είναι ωφεληµένοι θα είναι Þλοι εκείνοι που είχαν χρήµατα ή δραστηριÞτητεσ στο εξωτερικÞ και η αγοραστική τουσ δύναµη µέσα σε µία νύχτα θα υπερδιπλασιαστεί.

Mεγάλοι χαµένοι; Oλοι οι Eλληνεσ πολίτεσ και κυρίωσ τα χαµηλά στρώµατα, που αφενÞσ θα δουν την αγοραστική τουσ δύναµη να συρρικνώνεται κατά 50% ή και 70%, ενώ παράλληλα για ένα διάστηµα θα πρέπει να χρησιµοποιήσουν προϊÞντα ή προσωπικά αντικείµενα και περιουσιακά στοιχεία προκειµένου να έχουν τα βασικά είδη, αφού µε το «καληµέρα» τησ δραχµήσ η οικονοµία θα γίνει ανταλλακτική.

Eπίσησ, θα αυξηθεί η µετανάστευση κυρίωσ των νέων, ενώ θα υπάρξουν και φαινÞµενα Pωσίασ, Bουλγαρίασ αµέσωσ µετά την πτώση του καθεστώτοσ (δεκαετία του ‘90). Για παράδειγµα αν σήµερα κάποιοσ λαµβάνει µισθÞ 1.000 ευρώ η αγοραστική του δύναµη είναι: Bενζίνη: 588 λίτρα και Πετρέλαιο: 660 λίτρα.

Mετά την επιστροφή στη δραχµή ο µισθÞσ του θα είναι 340.750 δραχµέσ (Oι µισθοί θα µετατραπούν µε την αρχική ισοτιµία) και η αγοραστική του δύναµη θα µειωθεί στα: Bενζίνη: 367 λίτρα και Πετρέλαιο: 416 λίτρα.

Mπορεί να υπάρχει η δυνατÞτητα να κοπεί χρήµα, ωστÞσο αυτή δεν µπορεί να είναι ανεξάντλητη. Ωσ εκ τούτου απαιτείται να υπάρξουν πρωτογενή πλεονάσµατα απÞ την πρώτη νύχτα τησ επιστροφήσ στη δραχµή. Oι µεταρρυθµίσεισ θα πρέπει να ενταθούν και βέβαια θα περιλαµβάνουν απολύσεισ δηµοσίων υπαλλήλων και µειώσεισ σε κοινωνικέσ παροχέσ.

H έντονη ζήτηση για χρήµατα θα αναγκάσει τισ τράπεζεσ να

κλείσουν για ένα διάστηµα και θα περάσουν στον έλεγχο του κράτουσ. Tα επιτÞκια δανείων θα εκτιναχθούν στα ύψη και ουσιαστικά καµιά επιχείρηση δεν θα µπορεί να έχει πρÞσβαση στον τραπεζικÞ δανεισµÞ, αφού µε επιτÞκια 30%-40% κάτι τέτοιο θα είναι απαγορευτικÞ.

Mεγάλοσ αριθµÞσ εταιρειών θα οδηγηθεί στην πτώχευση, γιατί δεν θα µπορούν να ανταποκριθούν στισ ανάγκεσ τουσ, είτε για την εισαγωγή πρώτων υλών ή για την αποπληρωµή των δανείων τουσ, αφού αυτά είτε θα παραµείνουν σε ευρώ ή θα µετατραπούν σε δραχµέσ - αλλά σε µεταγενέστερο στάδιο και αφού έχει σταθεροποιηθεί η ισοτιµία.

§Ô˘Î¤ÙÔ ÛÙȘ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ Oι πολίτεσ θα σπεύσουν στισ τράπεζεσ να αποσύρουν τισ καταθέσεισ τουσ, αλλά αυτÞ θα είναι αδύνατο. Oι τράπεζεσ θα κλείσουν και ίσωσ επιστρατευτεί ο στρατÞσ για να τισ προστατεύσει. Σταδιακά θα αποκατασταθεί η πρÞσβαση στουσ καταθετικούσ λογαριασµούσ, αλλά αυτοί θα είναι σε δραχµέσ. Θα υπάρξουν συναλλαγµατικοί περιορισµοί, οπÞτε δεν θα µπορεί κανείσ εύκολα να βγάζει χρήµατα στο εξωτερικÞ, ακÞµη και για µεγάλη ανάγκη Þπωσ υγεία και σπουδέσ. Σε περίπτωση αλλαγήσ του νοµίσµατοσ, απαιτείται χρÞνοσ. Σύµφωνα µε τισ εκτιµήσεισ, αλλά και την εµπειρία του ευρώ, χρειάζονται περίπου δύο χρÞνια προκειµένου να υπάρξει δραχµή σε φυσική µορφή. Tι σηµαίνει αυτÞ; Στο µεσοδιάστηµα θα κυκλοφορεί η δραχµή σε λογιστική µορφή, το ευρώ σε φυσική (αλλά δεν θα το δίνουν οι ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ) και θα κυριαρχήσει η ανταλλακτική οικονοµία. Θα δίνει κάποιοσ ένα κιλÞ λάδι προκειµένου να πάρει ένα κιλÞ κρέασ.

O πληθωρισµÞσ θα καλπάζει. Eκτιµάται Þτι µπορεί για το πρώτο διάστηµα και µέχρι να υπάρξει ισορροπία να είναι τησ τάξεωσ του 50%. Oι τιµέσ που θα υπάρχουν το πρωί δεν θα είναι ίδιεσ µε αυτέσ που θα είναι το βράδυ και αυτÞ δεν είναι σχήµα λÞγου. Θα απαιτηθεί πολύσ χρÞνοσ έωσ Þτου η ισοτιµία τησ δραχµήσ µε το ευρώ σταθεροποιηθεί. AυτÞ εκτιµάται Þτι θα διαρκέσει περίπου έξι µήνεσ µε έναν χρÞνο. ∆ιεθνείσ οργανισµοί θεωρούν Þτι η υποτίµηση τησ δραχµήσ σε σχέση µε την αρχική ισοτιµία τησ εισÞδου τησ Eλλάδοσ στο ευρώ θα είναι τησ τάξησ του 60%, ίσωσ και περισσÞτερο. ∆ηλαδή ένα ευρώ θα αντιστοιχεί σε 550 ή 600 δραχµέσ. Kάποιοι ακÞµη πιο απαισιÞδοξοι την βλέπουν και στισ 1.000 δραχµέσ.

Oι εµπορικέσ συναλλαγέσ µε άλλεσ χώρεσ θα «παγώσουν» για ένα διάστηµα, άγνωστο πÞσο. Oι ελλείψεισ σε φάρµακα, καύσιµα και τρÞφιµα θα είναι κάτι περισσÞτερο απÞ ορατέσ. Mε δεδοµένο, µάλιστα, Þτι η Eλλάδα δεν είναι µία αυτάρκησ χώρα, σε αντίθεση µε το παράδειγµα προσ αποφυγή που φέρνουν πολλοί, την Aργεντινή,

Economist: H ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ı· Ó›ÍÂÈ ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Ένασ λαµπαδηδρÞµοσ που µε τη φωτιά του καίει ένα χαρτονÞµισµα των 20 ευρώ είναι το εξώφυλλο του νέου Εconomist το οποίο επικεντρώνεται ξανά στην Ελλάδα µε τον τίτλο να γράφει χαρακτηριστικά «Greek Run», δηλαδή η ελληνική φυγή. Ο Economist συνδυάζει την κρίση µε την επικαιρÞτητα δηλαδή την διαδροµή τησ Ολυµπιακήσ ΦλÞγασ την τελετή παράδοσησ για τουσ Αγώνεσ του 2012. Στο εσωτερικÞ του τεύχουσ, έχει κι άλλη µια ευρηµατική φωτογραφία! ΑπÞ την πÞρτα ενÞσ µεγάλου κτιρίου βγαίνει νερÞ, το οποίο πνίγει τουσ Έλληνεσ και ανάµεσά τουσ διακρίνεται και µία φωτογραφία του θεού Ποσειδώνα! «Έξοδοσ, κεφάλαιο πρώτο», γράφει στο κείµενο και προσθέτει: ∆υο χρÞνια αφού άρχισε η κρίση, µια ελληνική έξοδοσ θα µπορούσε να προκαλέσει Þλεθρο. Σύµφωνα µε το Economist οι εξελίξεισ µπορεί να έρθουν πιο γρήγορα, αν οι Έλληνεσ αρχίζουν να τρέχουν στισ τράπεζεσ, ενώ τονίζει πωσ ο µεγαλύτεροσ κίνδυνοσ που αντιµετωπίζει το χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα τησ Ευρώπησ είναι να εξαπλωθεί Þλο αυτÞ και εκτÞσ τησ Ελλάδασ. Και η χώρα που απειλείται περισσÞτερο απÞ πιθανή έξοδο τησ Ελλάδασ είναι η Κύπροσ.

™ÙȘ 200.000 Ù· ·Ô‡ÏËÙ· ·Î›ÓËÙ· Απούλητα παραµένουν 200.000 ακίνητα σε Þλη την Ελλάδα ωσ αποτέλεσµα τησ κάθετησ πτώσησ του αριθµού των αγοραπωλησιών το πρώτο και δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2012 κατά 54,1% σε ετήσια βάση. Το 2008 το απÞθεµα ήταν στα 120.000 και αυξήθηκε σταδιακά στα 180.000 το 2011, αλλά συνεχίζει να αυξάνεται τÞσο εξαιτίασ τησ απουσίασ επενδυτών Þσο κι επειδή Þλο και περισσÞτεροι ιδιοκτήτεσ βγάζουν την περιουσία τουσ στο σφυρί. Εντυπωσιακή είναι η «βουτιά» στισ επενδύσεισ σε κατοικίεσ, έναν κλάδο που αποτελούσε την ατµοµηχανή τησ οικονοµίασ και σήµερα ευθύνεται κατά ένα µεγάλο βαθµÞ στην υποχώρηση του ΑΕΠ.

Oι επενδύσεισ απÞ το 2000 έχουν υποχωρήσει κατά 68,7% (σε σταθερέσ τιµέσ), εξαιτίασ τησ ραγδαίασ επιδείνωσησ τησ κατάστασησ απÞ το 2007. Το 2011 οι επενδύσεισ µειώθηκαν 23,6% (το 2010 η µείωση ήταν 18%) ενώ αναµένεται περαιτέρω πτώση 17% φέτοσ, κάτι που σηµαίνει Þτι κανείσ δεν τοποθετεί χρήµατα στην αγορά ακινήτων. Οι επενδύσεισ αυτέσ εκτιµάται Þτι θα διαµορφωθούν στα 6 δισ. ευρώ το 2012, απÞ 7,2 δισ. ευρώ το 2011, 9,6 δισ. ευρώ το 2010 και 23,8 δισ. ευρώ το 2006.

MÈ· Ú·ÁÌ·ÙÈ΋ ÎfiÏ·ÛË ı· ˙‹ÛÂÈ Ë EÏÏ¿‰· ÙÔ ÚÒÙÔ ‰È¿ÛÙËÌ·, ·Ó ʇÁÂÈ ·fi ÙË ˙ÒÓË ÙÔ˘ ¢ÚÒ Î·È ÂÈÛÙÚ¤„ÂÈ ÛÙË ‰Ú·¯Ì‹ που «ταΐζει» Þλον τον κÞσµο. Kαµιά ξένη επιχείρηση δεν θα εξάγει στην Eλλάδα Þσο υπάρχει η συναλλαγµατική αστάθεια. Kαύσιµα και φάρµακα θα έρχονται µε σταγονÞµετρο και Þχι µε εµπορικέσ, αλλά µε διακρατικέσ συµφωνίεσ.

Eξαιτίασ τησ έλλειψησ καυσίµων αλλά και τησ αστάθειασ και τησ ανυπαρξίασ θεσµικών συµµάχων, η Eλλάδα µπορεί να βρεθεί στο στÞχαστρο γειτονικών χωρών και η εθνική τησ κυριαρχία να τεθεί εν αµφιβÞλω Þχι σε επίπεδο λήψησ αποφάσεων, αλλά εθνικού εδάφουσ. Mία χώρα αποµονωµένη και µε κοινωνική ένταση, θα είναι εύκολοσ στÞχοσ για Þποιον θελήσει να αµφισβητήσει τα σύνορά τησ. ΣοβαρÞ πρÞβληµα, Þµωσ, θα υπάρξει και µε την αστυνÞµευση, αφού τα οχήµατα τησ EΛ.AΣ. δεν θα έχουν αρκετά καύσιµα να κινηθούν. Tο παράδειγµα τησ Aργεντινήσ δείχνει Þτι τουλάχιστον στα µεγάλα αστικά κέντρα θα υπάρξουν οµάδεσ πολιτών που χρησιµοποιώντασ τη βία θα προσπαθούν να επιβιώσουν. H συγκράτησή τουσ θα είναι τουλάχιστον δύσκολη και ίσωσ χρειαστεί να επέµβει ωσ µέσο αποκατάστασησ τησ τάξησ ο στρατÞσ, µε Þ,τι αυτÞ µπορεί να σηµαίνει.

Tο δηµÞσιο χρέοσ θα αυξηθεί σε ποσοστÞ ανάλογο µε αυτÞ που το ευρώ ή το δολάριο θα ανατιµηθεί έναντι τησ δραχµήσ. Oι εκτιµήσεισ κάνουν λÞγο για χρέοσ που θα φτάσει στο 200% του AEΠ και ωσ εκ τούτου θα είναι αδύνατο να εξυπηρετηθεί, οπÞτε η Eλλάδα θα αναγκαστεί να πάει σε άτακτη χρεοκοπία και τεράστιο «κούρεµα», κάτι που θα σηµαίνει πωσ για δεκαετίεσ θα βρίσκεται εκτÞσ αγορών και δεν θα µπορεί να δανειστεί.

O µεγάλοσ κερδισµένοσ σε θεωρητικÞ επίπεδο θα είναι ο ελληνικÞσ τουρισµÞσ, αφού οι τιµέσ θα έχουν υποχωρήσει σηµαντικά. ΩστÞσο, η κοινωνική αναταραχή και η αστάθεια θα είναι οι παράγοντεσ εκείνοι που τουλάχιστον στο πρώτο διάστηµα θα αποθαρρύνουν τουσ ξένουσ να επισκεφτούν την Eλλάδα.

O δεύτεροσ µεγάλοσ κερδισµένοσ θα είναι και πάλι θεωρητικά ο εξαγωγικÞσ κλάδοσ. ΩστÞσο, η έλλειψη πρÞσβασησ σε πρώτεσ ύλεσ και η αδυναµία χρηµατοδÞτησησ, τα πρώτα χρÞνια θα ακυρώσουν το Þποιο Þφελοσ προκύψει απÞ την υποτίµηση τησ δραχµήσ. Πηγή: Hµερησία

∏ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ÛÙÔ ÛËÌÂ›Ô 0 Ολοένα και περισσÞτεροι άστεγοι κάνουν την εµφάνισή τουσ στουσ δρÞµουσ τησ Αθήνασ, οι ουρέσ Þσων περιµένουν στωικά στα συσσίτια είναι διπλάσιεσ απÞ πέρυσι, ενώ εκατοντάδεσ είναι εκείνοι που αναζητούν στουσ κάδουσ σκουπιδιών πραµάτεια για να πουλήσουνε. Η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται κοντά σε σηµείο διάλυσησ καθώσ παλεύει ασθµαίνοντασ να εκπληρώσει τουσ δηµοσιονοµικούσ στÞχουσ που τησ επέβαλαν οι δανειστέσ τησ. Η κατάσταση είναι δύσκολη, αλλά ενδεχοµένωσ να µην είναι παρά µια πρÞγευση του εφιάλτη ταραχών, πείνασ και ακÞµα και αναρχίασ που µπορεί να ακολουθούσε εάν αναγκαζÞταν η χώρα να βγει απÞ το ευρώ. Οι Έλληνεσ επιστρέφουν στισ κάλπεσ σε ένα µήνα, µετά απÞ το ασαφέσ εκλογικÞ αποτέλεσµα τησ 6ησ Μαΐου που αποτέλεσε θρίαµβο για κÞµµατα Þπωσ τη νεοναζιστική Χρυσή Αυγή, που αντιτάσσεται στο µνηµÞνιο και τα έξωθεν επιβληθέντα µέτρα λιτÞτητασ. Η

νέα εκλογική αναµέτρηση τησ 17ησ Ιουνίου χαρακτηρίζεται διεθνώσ ωσ δηµοψήφισµα για το ευρώ, ακÞµα και αν αρκετοί Έλληνεσ πιστεύουν το αντίθετο.

™Â Â›‰· ∫ÔÏÔÌ‚›·˜ Ë ‰È·ÊıÔÚ¿ Η ύφεση στην Ελλάδα πλήττει και την παραοικονοµία, η οποία εκτιµάται πωσ το 2012 θα υποχωρήσει στο 24% του ΑΕΠ, έναντι 15,8% πέρυσι και 25,4% το 2010. Την εκτίµηση έκανε ο ΑυστριακÞσ καθηγητήσ Φρίντριχ Σνάιντερ, ένασ απÞ τουσ κορυφαίουσ µελετητέσ τησ παραοικονοµίασ παγκοσµίωσ. Ùπωσ είπε, πάντωσ, µπορεί η σκιώδησ οικονοµία στην Ελλάδα να υποχωρεί, αλλά η διαφορά συνεχίζει να αναπτύσσεται, παρουσιάζοντασ αύξηση µεταξύ του 2010 και 2011. Σήµερα η Eλλάδα βρίσκεται σε επίπεδα διαφθοράσ ανάλογα µε τησ Κολοµβίασ, του Ελ ΣαλβαδÞρ, του Περού και τησ Ταϊλάνδησ, χειρÞτερα απÞ το Βανουάτου και τη Γκάµπια. Το ύψοσ τησ παραοικονοµίασ στην Ελλάδα προσεγγίζει τα 60 δισ ευρώ, απÞ τα οποία περίπου το 1/3 (20 δισ) συνυπολογίζονται στο ΑΕΠ, καθώσ προέρχονται απÞ αρχικά νÞµιµεσ δραστηριÞτητεσ οι οποίεσ σε κάποιο σηµείο γίνονται παράνοµεσ. Τα υπÞλοιπα 40 δισ ευρώ προέρχονται απÞ αµιγώσ παράνοµεσ δραστηριÞτητεσ. Η χώρα κατατάσσεται στην πρώτη δεκάδα των χωρών µε

τη µεγαλύτερη παραοικονοµία, µεταξύ των 27 κρατών τησ Ε.Ε. Τισ πρώτεσ θέσεισ κατέχουν η Βουλγαρία και η Ρουµανία, µε σκιώδη οικονοµία, που υπολογίζεται κοντά στο 32% και το 29% του ΑΕΠ αντίστοιχα. Αντίθετα, τα χαµηλÞτερα ποσοστά εντοπίζονται στο Λουξεµβούργο, Αυστρία και Ελβετία (κυµαίνονται γύρω στο 8%), ενώ η µεγαλύτερη οικονοµία τησ Ευρώπησ, η Γερµανία, έχει παραοικονοµία ίση µε το 13,3% του ΑΕΠ τησ. Στη Γαλλία το αντίστοιχο ποσοστÞ είναι 10,8% και στην Ιταλία 21,6%. Ο καθηγητήσ κατέθεσε µια σειρά προτεινÞµενων µέτρων φορολογικού και εισοδηµατικού χαρακτήρα, προκειµένου να µειωθεί η σκιώδησ οικονοµία. Μεταξύ άλλων πρÞτεινε προσωρινή φορολογική αµνηστία για επιστροφή φορολογητέων εισοδηµάτων που έχουν κρυφτεί και φορολÞγησή τουσ µε ενιαίο συντελεστή 25%-30% ΑκÞµη, πρÞτεινε οικονοµικά κίνητρα στουσ εφοριακούσ για τη φορολογητέα ύλη που συλλαµβάνουν (π.χ. επιστροφή σε αυτούσ του 5% των επιπλέον φορολογικών εσÞδων που φέρνουν στα ταµεία).

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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 23 ª∞´√À, 2012

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∆· GrillMan burgers ÛÙ· AlfaMega Ένα νέο, ποιοτικÞ brand ήρθε να κατακτήσει τα ψυγεία των υπερκαταστηµάτων ΆλφαΜέγα! ΠρÞκειται για τα προϊÞντα GrillMan, τη νέα µάρκα φρέσκοκατεψυγµένων American-style burgers. ΑπÞ το λανσάρισµά τουσ στην κυπριακή αγορά σε επιλεγµένεσ υπεραγορέσ και σε Þλεσ τισ πÞλεισ πριν λίγουσ µήνεσ, τα προϊÞντα GrillMan έχουν ήδη κατακτήσει µια θέση στο τραπέζι των... καλοφαγάδων! Φτιάχνονται απÞ διαλεκτά κρέατα, τα οποία παρασκευάζονται στισ υπερσύγχρονεσ εγκαταστάσεισ τησ Grill Man Frozen Foods στη Λευκωσία, µε υψηλά στάνταρ παραγωγήσ και µε αποκλειστικέσ, οικογενειακέσ συνταγέσ. Η παρουσία των προϊÞντων GrillMan στα ΆλφαΜέγα αποτελεί µέροσ τησ στρατηγικήσ επέκτασησ του ονÞµατοσ στα σηµαντικÞτερα σηµεία πώλησησ τησ Κύπρου. Φιλοδοξία τησ Grill Man Frozen Foods είναι η σταδιακή καθιέρωση των ποιοτικών προϊÞντων τησ στην κυπριακή αγορά µε στÞχο να γίνουν πρώτα στην προτίµηση του Κύπριου καταναλωτή. ΑπÞ σήµερα λοιπÞν, στα ΆλφαΜέγα θα φάτε καλά... µε GrillMan!

∏ Top Kinisis Travel ·ÓÙÈÚfiÛˆÔ˜ Ù˘ Etihad Η Top Kinisis Travel έχει διορισθεί ωσ ο Επιλεγµένοσ ΑντιπρÞσωποσ Πωλήσεων τησ Etihad Holidays στην Κύπρο. Η Etihad Holidays είναι µέλοσ τησ Etihad Airways και δραστηριοποιείται στην διοργάνωση ταξιδιωτικών πακέτων διακοπών στουσ προορισµούσ που εξυπηρετεί η Etihad Airways συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ και τησ βάσησ τησ εταιρείασ, το Άµπου Ντάµπι. Το πρÞγραµµα τησ Etihad Holidays προσφέρει επιλογέσ σε 100 προορισµούσ σε 35 χώρεσ στην Μέση Ανατολή, Αφρική, Ασία, Αυστραλία, Ευρώπη και ΒÞρεια Αµερική. Επιπλέον, προσφέρει ολοκληρωµένα πακέτα τα οποία περιλαµβάνουν αεροπορικÞ εισιτήριο, ενοικίαση αυτοκινήτου, ξεναγήσεισ και κρουαζιέρεσ. Οι πτήσεισ τησ Etihad Airways απÞ και προσ την Κύπρο, πραγµατοποιούνται κάθε Τετάρτη, Παρασκευή και Κυριακή. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ µπορείτε να αποταθείτε στα γραφεία τησ Top Kinisis Travel σε Þλεσ τισ πÞλεισ ή στο Παγκύπριο Τηλέφωνο 77 77 81 81 Þπου το έµπειρο προσωπικÞ τησ εταιρείασ είναι πάντα έτοιµο να σασ εξυπηρετήσει.

∏ Hyundai ¤‰ˆÛ ÙÔ Û‡ÓıËÌ· ÁÈ· ÙÔ Euro 2012 Σε µεγάλο διαγωνισµÞ συνθηµάτων για τισ εθνικέσ οµάδεσ ποδοσφαίρου, που προκήρυξε η Hyundai για το Euro 2012, οι συµµετοχέσ ξεπέρασαν τισ 5.000 εισηγήσεισ. Τα συνθήµατα θα διακοσµούν τα λεωφορεία των εθνικών οµάδων, στη διάρκεια του Euro 2012, που θα γίνει στην Πολωνία και την Ουκρανία, απÞ τισ 8 Ιουνίου µέχρι την 1η Ιουλίου. Για την κάθε οµάδα το σύνθηµα θα αναγράφεται στη γλώσσα τησ χώρασ, έχουν δοθεί Þµωσ στη δηµοσιÞτητα και οι µεταφράσεισ στην Αγγλική. Για την Ελλάδα, το σύνθηµα είναι “Γεννηµένοι µαχητέσ”! Για την Πολωνία και Ουκρανία που είναι εκ των διοργανωτών είναι Together, impossible becomes possible και Ukrainians, it’s our time, αντίστοιχα. Οι νικητέσ των συνθηµάτων που έχουν επιλεγεί θα πάρουν απÞ δύο δωρεάν πακέτα φιλοξενίασ σε προηµιτελικÞ αγώνα στο Γκτάνσκ, στην Πολωνία, που περιλαµβάνουν αεροπορικά εισιτήρια, ξενοδοχεία, εισιτήρια του αγώνα, διατροφή και περιηγήσεισ. Ο παγκÞσµιοσ διαγωνισµÞσ “Be There With Hyundai” έδωσε την ευκαιρία σε υποστηρικτέσ απÞ τισ 16 χώρεσ που συµµετέχουν να υποβάλουν εισηγήσεισ για την οµάδα τουσ. Τον περασµένο Απρίλιο, τα τρία επικρατέστερα συνθήµατα για κάθε χώρα αναρτήθηκαν στο UEFA.com και η επιλογή των τελικών έγινε µε ψηφοφορία του κοινού. Η Hyundai είναι ένασ απÞ τουσ επίσηµουσ χορηγούσ του UEFA EURO 2012.

∆Ô ·ÓıÚ·ÎÔ‡¯Ô ÓÂÚfi Badoit ÛÙ· ΢Úȷο Ú¿ÊÈ· Με µια πολύχρονη ιστορία που ξεκινά απÞ το 1778, το φυσικÞ ανθρακούχο νερÞ Badoit αποτελεί σήµερα το Νο.1 στισ µάρκεσ ανθρακούχων νερών στη Γαλλία. Εµφιαλωµένο και αναβλύζον κατευθείαν απÞ την κορυφαία προστατευÞµενη πηγή St. Galmier τησ Γαλλίασ, το Badoit είναι ένα αληθινÞ δώρο τησ φύσησ που διατηρεί µια τέλεια ισορροπηµένη σύνθεση σε µεταλλικά στοιχεία και περιέχει λεπτέσ, ελαφριέσ φυσαλίδεσ που ενεργοποιούν την απαλή του γεύση. Με περιβαλλοντική φιλοσοφία να είναι φιλικÞ προσ το περιβάλλον µειώνοντασ την οικολογική του επίπτωση, το Badoit επανασχεδίασε πρÞσφατα µε µεγάλη επιµέλεια και κοµψÞ σχεδιασµÞ, τη νέα συµπιεζÞµενη φιάλη PET που διατίθεται σε 1L και 33cl και είναι ελαφριά στη χρήση, επανασφραγιζÞµενη και ανακυκλώσιµη. Απαράµιλλο σε ποιÞτητα και γεύση, το Badoit αποτελεί τον ηγέτη των ανθρακούχων νερών και στο γαστρονοµικÞ κÞσµο τησ Γαλλίασ, λÞγω τησ ιδιÞτητάσ του να συνδυάζεται µε διάφορα γεύµατα ενισχύοντασ τη γεύση τουσ. Μάλιστα, πολλοί διάσηµοι Σεφ ανά το παγκÞσµιο το επιλέγουν και προτείνουν τη χρήση του κατά τη µαγειρική τουσ. Στην Κύπρο, το Badoit και το evian εισάγονται και διανέµονται απÞ την εταιρία Iakovos Photiades Foodstuff Suppliers Ltd (ipH).

√ÏÔÎÏËÚÒıËΠÙÔ ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ· √›Î·‰Â Η Τράπεζα Κύπρου διοργάνωσε την Πέµπτη 17 Μαΐου την τελετή λήξησ του Εκπαιδευτικού Προγράµµατοσ Οίκαδε για τη σχολική χρονιά 2011-2012. Ένα πρÞγραµµα που για µία ακÞµη χρονιά έφερε µαζί τα σχολεία του ελληνισµού, αξιοποιώντασ τη σύγχρονη τεχνολογία του διαδικτύου, έτσι ώστε εκπαιδευτικοί αλλά κυρίωσ οι µαθητέσ να δηµιουργήσουν το δικÞ τουσ δίκτυο επικοινωνίασ και να ανταλλάξουν εµπειρίεσ και γνώσεισ µε στÞχο να ενισχύσουν τουσ δεσµούσ τουσ µε την ελληνική γλώσσα και την ελληνική ταυτÞτητα και να οικοδοµήσουν σχέσεισ µε άλλα παιδιά τησ ηλικίασ τουσ. Τρανή απÞδειξη κατά τη διάρκεια τησ εκδήλωσησ η επικοινωνία µε το δηµοτικÞ σχολείο Ριζοκαρπάσου, αλλά και το σχολείο του ακριτικού ΣιδηρÞκαστρου στην Ελλάδα. Σε συνεχή επικοινωνία και συνεργασία µε το Υπουργείο Παιδείασ και Πολιτισµού κάθε νέα σχολική χρονιά εντάσσονται και νέα σχολεία στο Οίκαδε µε στÞχο τη συµµετοχή Þλων ανεξαιρέτωσ των δηµοτικών σχολείων τησ Κύπρου. Το ΠρÞγραµµα Οίκαδε δηµιουργήθηκε στα πλαίσια των εορτασµών για τη συµπλήρωση των 100χρονων τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου.

∆· Taco Bell ÙÒÚ· Î·È ÛÙË §Â˘ÎˆÛ›· Με τον αέρα που διακατέχει τουσ celebrities, τη διαφορετικÞτητα που χαρακτηρίζει τησ ακτέσ τησ ΝÞτιασ ΚαλιφÞρνιασ και τη λάµψη που ακτινοβολεί το Hollywood, η παγκοσµίου φήµησ αλυσίδα µεξικάνικων εστιατορίων γρήγορησ εξυπηρέτησησ TACO BELL, φτάνει και στη Λευκωσία για να γίνει ο πιο νÞστιµοσ προορισµÞσ σασ! Μετά την επιτυχηµένη παρουσία τησ αλυσίδασ εδώ και δύο χρÞνια στο Μy Μall στη ΛεµεσÞ, η PHC Franchised Restaurants Public Ltd ανοίγει το 2ο εστιατÞριο Taco Bell στην Κύπρο. Οι λατρεµένεσ γεύσεισ των Tacos, Burritos, Quesadilla και άλλεσ τÞσεσ µεξικάνικεσ απολαύσεισ θα εγκατασταθούν σύντοµα στον 1ο Þροφο του MALL OF CYPRUS. Το Taco Bell δεν είναι τυχαία η µεγαλύτερη αλυσίδα γρήγορου µεξικάνικου φαγητού στον κÞσµο: απÞ το 1962, στα περισσÞτερα απÞ 5800 εστιατÞρια Taco Bell έχουν φτιαχτεί πολλάκισ δισεκατοµµύρια Tacos και Burritos που λατρεύουν και απολαµβάνουν εκατοµµύρια πελάτεσ κάθε εβδοµάδα! Το µυστικÞ τησ επιτυχίασ; ΠοιοτικÞ µεξικάνικο φαγητÞ στα γρήγορα και στισ καλύτερεσ τιµέσ. Σύντοµα κοντά σασ λοιπÞν, το Taco Bell και οι ακαταµάχητεσ γεύσεισ του απÞ το ΜεξικÞ, στο Mall of Cyprus στη Λευκωσία!

1000 ‰ˆÚÂ¿Ó Î·‡ÛÈÌ· €1 ·fi ÙËÓ Toyota Η ∆ικράν Ουζουνιάν & Σια Λτδ, αντιπρÞσωποι των αυτοκινήτων Toyota στην Κύπρο, ανταποκρίνεται για ακÞµα µια φορά στισ προκλήσεισ των καιρών και σασ προσφέρει την απÞλυτη ξεγνοιασιά και ηρεµία µε µια πρωτÞτυπη και συνάµα πολύ δελεαστική λύση. Κατά τη διάρκεια τησ Κρατικήσ Έκθεσησ και µέχρι τέλοσ Ιουνίου, σασ προσφέρει 1000 ευρώ δωρεάν καύσιµα µε την αγορά κάθε καινούριου αυτοκινήτου Auris, Corolla και άλλων επιλεγµένων µοντέλων. Παράλληλα, για την ίδια περίοδο, θα προσφέρει µοναδικέσ προσφορέσ µε την αγορά οποιουδήποτε µοντέλου Toyota. Το µοναδικÞ σχέδιο Toyota Flex συµπληρώνει το πρωτοποριακÞ πακέτο προσφορών µε δωρεάν συντήρηση και επιδιÞρθωση για 3 χρÞνια. Οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι θα έχουν τη δυνατÞτητα να γνωρίσουν απÞ κοντά το µοντέλο τησ επιλογήσ τουσ σε Þλεσ τισ εκθέσεισ Toyota Παγκύπρια, οι οποίεσ θα λειτουργούν µε παρατεταµένο ωράριο. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ επισκεφθείτε την ιστοσελίδα τησ Toyota Κύπρου www.toyota.com.cy

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

ECO NEWS 19

UK climate policy can curb energy price shocks Britain’s climate policies can help shield the economy from oil and gas price shocks triggered by external factors such as the Arab Spring, an analysis commissioned by the government showed on Friday.

Energy price spikes can often dent economic growth, business investment and employment, as witnessed during the global financial crisis in mid-2008 when oil rose to nearly $150 per barrel, research group Oxford Economics said in a report.

Yet the negative impact on economic growth could be halved if the UK’s climate policies manage to reduce the country’s demand for coal, gas and oil, it said. l The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) revealed the report ahead of the government’s draft Energy Bill that is due to be published next week.

The bill will set out in detail how to reform the UK’s electricity market, as well as how it can attract 110 bln pounds of needed investment to build new low-carbon plants.

“The more we can shift to alternative fuels, and use energy efficiently, the more we can ensure that our economy does not become hostage to far-flung events and to the volatility of market forces,” Ed Davey, secretary of state for energy and climate change, said in a statement.

For instance, Davey cited last year’s Arab Spring for spiking wholesale gas prices and pushing up UK household bills by 20%.

“Of course, there are costs to building more low-carbon plants, but the gains are so much greater, and crucially they are lasting,” he said in a statement.

The energy reforms will enable the UK to meet its climate goals, an

80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and pave the way for new renewable and nuclear power plants and technology to capture and store carbon emissions, DECC said.

ECONOMIC BENEFIT The study by Oxford Economics assessed the economic impact of a jump in oil and gas prices under a low-carbon scenario where demand for coal, gas and oil is reduced by 90, 70 and 30% by 2050 against 2010 levels.

It showed that a 50% rise in oil and gas prices would have reduced gross domestic product by 1.0% in 2010.

By 2050, the negative economic impact would be 0.7% under a business-as-usual scenario and less than 0.4% under the low-carbon one with less energy demand.

“Our modelling results therefore indicate the UK’s sensitivity to oil and gas price shocks could be reduced by around 60% in 2050 through the introduction of such climate change policies,” the report said.

Despite the stagnating economy and tough austerity measures, the UK should continue to strive to reach its climate goals because it makes more economic sense, said Mike Landy, senior policy officer at the Renewable Energy Association (REA).

While fossil fuel price rises added more than 160 pounds to the average energy bill last year, support for renewables accounted for 20 pounds of the average energy bill, he said.

“There is no doubt the targets are ambitious, but if we don’t think this is achievable then we shouldn’t even embark on it,” he told Reuters.

Aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050

Free recycling bins for primary schools from Laiki Laiki Bank has bought PMD and paper recycling bins for all primary schools in Cyprus as part of its corporate social responsibility programme and its commitment to supporting environmental education and protection.

Bins have already been distributed to 150 primary schools nominated by the Ministry of Education and from which Green Dot Cyprus collects the recycled materials.

Laiki’s online game Recycling Hero also offered pupils the chance to both play the recycling game and at the same time improve their school environment with the purchase of recycling bins sponsored by Laiki. In all, 9,000 pupils took part in the game at www.recyclinghero.com.cy.

Scientists urge action on world’s biggest problems Scientists from 15 countries are calling for a better political response to the provision of water and energy to meet the challenge of feeding a world of 9 bln people within 30 years.

The joint statement by some of the world’s leading science academies was issued ahead of the G8 summit in the United States. It is part of the annual lobbying effort aimed at focusing the attention of world leaders on issues the scientific community regards as crucial.

For the first time, the scientists argue that looming shortages in water and energy supplies should be treated as a single issue. “Major stresses on availability of energy and water are already being felt in many countries and regions and more are foreseeable,” the joint statement said.

Fossil fuel, nuclear and hydropower are still providing the bulk of the world’s energy and they all rely heavily on the supply of water for cooling, running steam turbines or direct power generation. Conversely, large amounts of energy are used in pumping, purifying and desalinating water around the globe.

“Without considering water and energy together, inefficiencies will occur, increasing shortages of both,” the statement warns. Politicians should pursue policies that integrate the two and emphasise the need for conservation, efficiency and cooperation across national borders.

DISASTERS CERTAIN TO HAPPEN The world also needs to increase its resilience against disasters like those which result from tsunamis, earthquakes and levees that fail in the face of rising sea levels.

“Disasters are absolutely certain to happen,” Michael Clegg of the U.S.

National Academy of Sciences told Reuters, adding growth in the global population, from 7 bln now, was focused on coastal areas that are more vulnerable, making it “more important that we design for resilience.”

The scientists said global annual losses from natural disasters exceeded $200 bln in 2005, 2008 and 2011 but loss of life was generally much lower in developed countries.

Governments should focus efforts on improving public health systems, strengthening building standards and better information technology that enables faster warnings and response.

Signatories of the statement also call for better measurement of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions and more solid data country by country on natural resources like forests, which absorb some of the most damaging carbon emissions.

“More accurate and standardized methods for estimating human and natural sources and sinks of greenhouse gases are needed as a prerequisite for an international climate treaty and to determine the effectiveness of national emission-reduction programmes,” they said.

Clegg said that despite the widespread acceptance of the need to reduce greenhouse gases, there is still a lot of uncertainty about, and a lack of standardisation in, the methods for measuring those emissions.

“There is a great need to develop more accurate approaches,” he said, adding that it was a fundamental building block for the world’s response to climate change but “getting a correct measurement ... is challenging.”

The statement urges politicians to “give greater consideration to the vital role science and technology could play in addressing some of the planet’s most pressing challenges”.

Blackout risk alert on the rise Even with new generation capacity plans, power industry executives expect blackout risks to rise in Europe and North America, as the industry confronts the challenge of energy affordability, efficiency, and energy security policies not meeting demands. There are also worries that the number of consumers in fuel poverty will rise significantly in the next 20 years.

The findings, from PwC’s 12th Global Power & Utilities report - ‘The shape of power to come’, surveyed the views of 72 power and utilities companies’ in 43 countries. Analysing the big issues facing the industry now, and what the world of electricity would look like in 2030, the report underlines the immense changes and challenges lying ahead for the industry.

With energy demand predicted to rise from 17,200 TWh in 2009 to over 31,700 TWh in 2035, gas heads the list of investment priorities for new generation at double the rates of support for coal or nuclear generation. Despite this, it will not be a game changer, says the industry, with its share of the fuel mix predicted to rise from 29% now to 33% in 2030.

In overall terms, power companies expect their fuel mix to change from 66% fossil fuels vs. 34% non fossil fuel today to 57% vs. 43% in 2030. While this moves the industry closer to recognised industry predictions to meet demand, it falls well short of what is needed by 2030 to limit global warming to an average of 2°C. With worries about affordability and the pace of infrastructure

investment in western power markets translating into unease about security of energy supply, Europe and North America are now more concerned about the risk of black outs than those in developing markets. In Europe and North America close to half (46%) predict an increased risk of blackouts up until 2030, while in developing markets where power cuts are currently more commonplace, 53% expect them to reduce.

Views on smart grids and metering highlight the gap to be bridged between domestic consumers and the industry, the survey found. This is particularly noticeable in North America and Europe, where 80% and 74% of respondents respectively, are worried about customer engagement being an obstacle to realising the full potential of these technologies.

The scale of new generation capacity needed to cope with increasing demand will boost the renewables industry‘s case, with many - over 80% - believing onshore wind, biomass and all forms of solar will not need subsidies to compete by 2030.

Overall, participants expect a major ramping up of non-hydro renewables to meet 2030 power demand scenarios.

Also, three fifths of respondents think electric cars will form a significant proportion of the world vehicle fleet by 2030. New technologies and systems able to cope with a more mobile consumers will be key – three out of five survey participants stated the infrastructure needed for electric-powered transport will be a major challenge for utilities.

Green T-shirts at Levention museum The Levention Municipal Museum in Nicosia has introduced a range of 100% eco-friendly T-shirts as part of fund-raising programme to support the programme to digitize all of the books in their library. The three designs depicting a map of Nicosia, the statue of Aphrodite and the prehistoric idol, are selling for 15 euros.

The cost to digitize each book is 500 euros and the museum said it has already processed 20 books.

Lufthansa is Eco-Aviation Airline of the Year Air Transport World, a monthly aviation trade publication that reports on the international airline industry, named Lufthansa its “EcoAviation Airline of the Year”.

“Lufthansa’s comprehensive environmental and sustainability efforts touch nearly every corner of the airline, and in many cases influence the entire industry,” said Karen Walker, Executive Editor of Air Transport World. “For example, the unprecedented long-term biofuel study that Lufthansa concluded in January will no doubt benefit the entire industry.”

Lufthansa’s application showcased the breadth of the company’s environmental efforts, the jury said. Among them, the airline’s dedication to fuel-efficiency, which is achieved through an ongoing investment in fleet modernization, including adding the A380 and new 747-8 Intercontinental to the airline’s fleet and the development of a more effective flight-route planning solution; humanitarian relief that provides aid to communities struck by natural disasters and supports protection of endangered species; and vital umbrella support from seniorlevel management via Lufthansa’s cross-departmental Corporate Responsibility Council.

ATW editors will present the award at a June 21 ceremony that will conclude the publication’s fifth Annual Eco-Aviation Conference, which is attended by high-level aerospace industry executives, operations management, government officials and representatives of companies who are working with mainstream eco-aviation products.

20 FOREX

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

Gold stalls below $1,600/oz Gold inched lower on Tuesday after failing to break above $1,600 an ounce, as investors await a European Union summit later in the week at which leaders will try to agree on action to solve the region’s debt crisis.

Gold made attempts to break above the key resistance level at $1,600 in the past two days but failed, and has since been drifting around $1,590 as investors remained cautious when the fate of Greece and euro zone remains in limbo.

Market participants will closely watch an informal EU summit on Wednesday, during which French President Francois Hollande is expected to push for mutualised European debt, an idea that Germany has opposed.

Equities extended gains, partly riding on optimism about fresh action at the Wednesday meeting, but some analysts were less sanguine about its influence on gold, at least in the short term.

“If the politicians fail to make an agreement, the market will get jittery - people will look for liquidity, the dollar will rally, assets being sold and gold will come under pressure,” Dominic Schnider, an analyst at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore told Reuters.

A worsening situation in the euro zone would eventually prompt the ECB to print more cash, which benefits gold as a non-yielding asset, he added.

If European leaders agreed on new effort to address

the debt crisis, gold may falter as its safe haven appeal diminishes.

Spot gold inched down 0.2% to $1,589.93 an ounce. U.S. gold was nearly flat at $1,589.80.

Physical market activities were slow as prices stalled below $1,600, as buyers were not convinced of a return to the uptrend despite a swift rally that pulled prices up from a 2012 low less than $1,530 last week.

“If we break above $1,600 and even go higher to confirm the bull trend, we will see more buying,” said a Hong Kong-based dealer. “Otherwise the market will be quiet.”

The gold bar premium in Hong Kong was steady from last week at $1.20 to $1.70 an ounce above London prices, while in Singapore, premiums eased to $1 from $1-$1.20 last week as buying slowed, dealers said. Indian rupee rebounded from a record low hit in the previous session against the dollar. The weakness in the rupee has dented gold demand in India, which until recent quarters was the world’s top gold consumer.

The most-active gold for June delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange rose to 29,174 rupees per 10 grams on Monday, its highest since early May, just 0.9% below its historical high while dollar-priced spot gold traded 17% below its all-time high above $1,920 hit last September.

Brent steady near $109 ahead of Iran talks Brent crude held steady near $109 on Tuesday, awaiting the results of two meetings to tackle Europe’s debt crisis and Iran’s nuclear programme, which could determine the future of global oil demand and supply.

Major powers will meet Iran on Wednesday to discuss its nuclear programme, but tensions with the West remain high as the U.S. Senate approved a package of new economic sanctions on Iran’s oil sector on Monday.

Brent crude edged up 7 cents to $108.88 a barrel, but is still about $20 down from March’s high. U.S. crude for June inched up 9 cents to $92.66 ahead of its expiry later today. “Prices just got to such a depressed point where there could be some speculative or technical buying,” Ben Le Brun, a Sydney-based markets analyst at OptionsXpress said.

“Uncertainty in the euro zone is going to weigh out anything from Iran, unless the Iranian newsflow gets worse.”

Rising crude stocks in the United States and higher production from OPEC producers also capped oil gains although any signs of rising tensions between Iran and the West may lift prices again.

There was no immediate sign of a breakthrough in the tense confrontation over Iran’s nuclear programme after U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Yukiya Amano held talks in Tehran on Monday.

“Short term, we feel there are risks to the upside,” ANZ Bank analysts said in a note, adding that Brent looks to be targeting $110.15 a barrel.

“If WTI can clear $93 a barrel, we may see another dollar move towards $94.”

Rising crude stockpiles in the United States may also weigh on prices. Crude inventories were expected to rise 1.0 mln barrels last week, up for the ninth straight week, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.

Distillates and gasoline stocks were forecast unchanged from the previous week’s level.

Markets extend gains on value hunt, hopes for EU summit Markets extended gains on Tuesday with investors hunting for bargains in shares beaten down to 2012 lows late last week, as hopes grew that Europe could agree on fresh action to tackle its debt crisis while promoting growth.

A Chinese media report saying Beijing will accelerate infrastructure investments to combat slowing growth lifted Hong Kong and Chinese shares by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.4%, having recovered on Monday from a plunge to a 2012 low on Friday. Australian shares gained 1% as investors picked up miners and mining services companies on expectations China will undertake further stimulus to maintain an expansion.

Copper, which fell to a four-month low below $7,500 a tonne last week, climbed 0.5% to $7,766 a

tonne. Xstrata, the world’s fourth-largest copper miner, said on Tuesday Chinese demand for copper was likely to improve in the second half. The remarks came after some miners have sounded a cautious note on expansion. Markets are sensitive to demand and growth prospects in China, the world’s leading consumer of materials and second-largest economy, as the financial crisis weighs on European growth while fragile spots remain for the United States.

So it’s no surprise that the media report on China fast-tracking infrastructure projects boosted regional shares on Tuesday.

Evidence that strictly abiding by austerity measures to fix the euro zone’s debt restructuring has only compounded the situation prompted leaders of the G8 major industrialized nations to call for promoting growth.

FOREX COMMENTARY / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS By: Eurivex

The euro’s rebound from four-month lows stalled on Tuesday, failing to break above a technical resistance, though traders said selling could be limited at least until an informal meeting of European leaders this week.

Traders have been reducing their massive bets against the common currency in the past couple of days, taking note of prospects - however slender - that EU leaders may agree measures to bolster investor confidence in the euro zone on Wednesday.

With speculators’ short positions on the euro at a record high, traders were wary of the potential for short-squeeze, despite worries about stability of the banking system in Spain and political gridlock in Greece.

The euro slipped to $1.2794, as short-term players sold the currency after it had failed to make a clean break above the technical resistance at $1.2811 from a tenkan line on the daily Ichimoku charts.

Still, it kept some distance from a four-month low of $1.2642 hit last Friday with many traders wary of further selling after data from U.S. watchdog showed speculators’ short euro positions climbed to a record high of 173,869 contracts.

France’s new President Francois Hollande is expected to push for a joint euro zone bond at the EU meeting in Brussels, a measure backed by Italy, Spain and the European Commission. Germany, the EU paymaster, opposes any early move.

Against the British pound, the euro changed hands at 80.93 pence, near its highest level in over two weeks, having risen for the past four sessions after hitting a 3 1/2-year low of 79.505.

But market participants are also cautious about getting their hopes up too high on the EU summit, which could well show a deep divide between the German-led drive for austerity and the efforts to put more focus on growth, a key pledge of the new French president.

As the euro recovers from lows, the dollar’s index against a basket of currencies stepped back from a four-month peak hit on Friday. The dollar index stood at 81.048, about one percent below Friday’s high of 81.758.

Weekly Economic Calendar Date Country Detail MAY 23 EUR Current Account due at 11.00am in EUR MAY 23 GBP MPC meeting minutes due 11.30am MAY 23 GBP Retail Sales M/M due 11.30am MAY 23 EUR Industrial Orders M/M MAY 23 CAD Retail Sales M/M due 3.30pm MAY 23 US New Home Sales due 5.00pm MAY 24 CHF Swiss Trade Balance due 9.00am in CHF MAY 24 EUR German Final GDP Q/Q due 9.00am MAY 24 EUR German Ifo Business Climate due 11.00am MAY 24 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI due 11.00am MAY 24 EUR Flash Services PMI due 11.00am MAY 24 GBP Revised GDP Q/Q due 11.30am MAY 24 US Weekly Unemployment Claims due 3.30pm MAY 24 US Durable Goods Orders due 3.30pm MAY 25 EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate due 9.00am MAY 25 CHF Swiss Employment Level due 10.15am MAY 25 EUR Italian Retail Sales M/M due 11.00am MAY 25 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment due 4.55pm Indicated times are Cyprus time

Forecast Previous 3.4B -1.3B 0-0-9 0-0-9 -0.70% 1.80% -0.10% -1.20% 0.40% -0.20% 0.40% 0.30% 1.95B 1.58B 0.50% 0.50% 109.5 109.9 46.1 45.9 47.0 46.9 -0.20% -0.20% 374k 370k 0.50% -4.00% 5.8 5.6 4.05M 4.04M -0.10% 0.60% 77.7 77.8 Source: Eurivex

Against the yen, the dollar moved little at 79.38 yen, off three-month low of 79.002 hit on Friday, with traders focusing on the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Although most market players expect the BOJ to keep its policy on hold after an easing last month, there is some speculation about further easing, raising the possibility the dollar could fall on disappointment if the BOJ stands pat.

That could push the dollar below 79 yen, which could set it on course to test an important support level of its 200-day moving average, now at around 78.53 yen.

Disclaimer The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

MARKETS

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

CWW result won’t change Vodafone bid view, says Orbis Fund manager Orbis, the largest shareholder in Cable & Wireless Worldwide (CWW), stood firm on Sunday in its view that the telecoms provider was worth more than the 1 bln pounds ($1.58 bln) Vodafone had agreed to pay for it, regardless of any further decline in trading.

“Given the difficulties that CWW has encountered and the uncertainty its customers face around the future direction of the company, we would not be surprised to see a continuation of CWW’s disappointing trends,” an Orbis spokesman said.

“Having said that, we do not believe that CWW’s current performance is a good indictor of the inherent value of the company.”

The mobile phone operator’s 38 pence-a-share bid is supported by CWW’s board and shareholders

representing 18.6% of the stock, but Orbis, which holds 19%, has declined to publicly endorse the offer, saying it undervalues the company. Orbis has said it is prepared to remain a minority shareholder in a Vodafone-controlled CWW. The troubled business telecoms group was valued at 2.7 bln pounds just two years ago after the former Cable & Wireless split and Vodafone is picking up CWW’s extensive fibre network, business contracts and international cables at a bargain price.

If Vodafone fails to get acceptances from owners of 75% of CWW stock as required under the scheme of arrangement, it can switch to a tender offer, although this would be a less tax-efficient method.

Espirito Santo analyst Will Draper said a nucleus of investors could rally around Orbis to try to force a

World Currencies Per Us Dollar CURRENCY

higher bid.

“If Orbis doesn’t accept, Vodafone could go ahead at 38 pence a share and would accept Orbis as a minority and hope that one day they could squeeze them out,” he said.

Another scenario would be that Vodafone raised its bid slightly to get Orbis to tender, he said.

Orbis is no stranger to the strategy. It refused Canon’s recommended 8.6 euro-a-share offer for printer maker Oce in 2010, before selling out for 9.75 euros in late 2011.

Vodafone for its part has said areas of the business “needed investment”, but it has not given further details. It has also said the deal will be earnings accretive, pre-integration costs, “pretty much immediately”.

Interest Rates

0-0,25% 0.50% 1.00% 0-0,1% 0-0,25%

ALPHA BANK

Swap Rates

CCY/Period

1mth

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1yr

USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.24 0.68 0.34 0.14 0.07

0.35 0.80 0.43 0.16 0.10

0.47 1.01 0.61 0.20 0.11

0.74 1.33 0.92 0.34 0.19

1.07 1.85 1.25 0.55 0.39

CCY/Period

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USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.64 1.29 0.96 0.32 0.09

0.73 1.33 1.05 0.33 0.15

0.89 1.40 1.20 0.36 0.25

1.10 1.50 1.36 0.40 0.36

1.49 1.79 1.66 0.55 0.63

1.90 2.24 1.98 0.85 0.95

Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF 1.2805 0.7809

100 JPY

1.5842

1.0661

1.2575

1.2372

0.8326

0.9821

0.6730

0.7938

0.6312

0.8083

0.9380

1.2011

1.4860

79.52

101.83

125.98

1.1796

CCY\Date

24.04

30.04

08.05

15.05

22.05

CCY

Today

USD GBP JPY CHF

1.3123

1.3215

1.2995

1.2792

1.2748

0.8138

0.8116

0.8035

0.7949

0.8063

106.07

105.82

103.84

102.05

101.11

1.1972

1.1967

1.1964

1.1962

1.1961

GBP EUR JPY CHF

1.5842 1.2805 79.52 0.9380

More Questions Than Answers In China Three months ago, we wrote about the widening valuation gap between domestically listed China shares, and their overseas counterparts. Today the gap is largely closed: H-shares, listed in Hong Kong, have almost lost all their year-to-date gains while A shares have fallen only slightly. This convergence shows that foreign investors, who had been preparing for a substantial easing, adjusted to the lessexciting reality which had been reflected by the Ashares.

Which brings us to yesterday’s headline-garnering news that Premier Wen has committed to making growth a higher priority; a vow that came without the usual cautionary mention of inflation risks. Is this another feel-good stump speech that will not be followed up with action? Actually, no. The action has already begun. After a spate of tepid economic data, the government has been greasing the tracks for a resumption in infrastructure investment projects, as reflected in recent moves to broaden financial channels for the railway sector and encourage private investment. New subsidies for purchases of energyefficient appliances were announced last Wednesday.

And last weekend the PBoC lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50bps, which in turn drove interbank rates to an almost one-year low.

The problem is, we cannot yet be certain that the latest stimulus measures will be successful.

Beijing depends on the banks to push credit out; however official data shows bank lending has been underwhelming so far this year, and the rumour mill indicates that this is getting worse rather than better. According to press reports, net lending by China’s big four banks was almost zero in the first two weeks of May. This year’s lending trend has raised a lot of questions: 1. Is this simply a temporary standoff over borrowing rates? As we wrote in recent daily, lending spreads remain high and the weighted cost of capital is probably rising. Are the banks unwilling to cut rates to attract business, in order to protect NIMs and amid uncertainty over future funding costs? Or are the borrowers deferring some projects on the expectation that terms will change for the better once the economy/lending

Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia

BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH

8165 1.5842 1.5275 19.5788 5.8047 12.2193 1.2803 1.615 231.16 0.5444 2.6966 0.3353 11.8500 5.9329 3.3628 3.469 31.0985 7.0985 0.9381 8.0172

AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD

0.9929 1.0157 7.7645 55.0100 79.53 1163.20 1.3057 1.2656

BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED

0.3770 6.0440 12043.9023 3.8200 0.7080 0.2791 1501 0.3838 3.6406 3.75 8.2423 3.673

AZN KZT TRL

0.7839 147.76 1824500

AMERICAS & PACIFIC Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar

Last Week %Change 1.6105 1.2850 79.88 0.9348

cycle suffers more of a crunch?

2. Are banks having more trouble than expected dealing with increasingly mobile deposits? Over the past two years deposit growth rate has slowed considerably. At the same time, competition from wealth management industry (between banks) has made deposits less sticky.

There are no signs this latter trend is slowing down: e.g., in 1Q12, the size of trust funds increased +60% YoY and 10% QoQ. With uncertainty on deposit flows, banks may have adopted a more conservative stance on long-duration loans.

3. Is the post-stimulus deleveraging process in China too great of a drag on growth, which in turn is sapping loan demand? Last time China deleveraged, it was post the 1998-2002 stimulus when

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham ASIA

Weekly movement of USD

+1.63 +0.35 -0.45 +0.34

84.78

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research

RATE

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

LIBOR rates

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CODE

EUROPEAN

The Financial Markets Base Rates

21

Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira

Note:

* USD per National Currency

The Rational Thing To Do In A Bank Run Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research

The first phase of the European crisis was about the sustainability of budget deficits; this triggered the creation of the EFSF and ESM. The second phase of the crisis was about bank liquidity; this triggered the creation of the LTROs. This third phase of the crisis, however, is about the political willingness of southern Europe to remain “nailed to a cross of euros.” Indeed, as Michael Cembalest put it recently in a missive to his clients: “By the time a member country sees a GDP decline that rivals the US Great Depression, suffers youth unemployment greater than 50% and elects communists and neo-nazis to its Parliament, something has gone horribly wrong”. A stark reality which brings us to the simple question confronting most of our readers every day; namely where do you put your stop-loss?

After all, almost every money manager we have ever met comes into a position with a stop-loss; a pre-deterWEALTH MANAGEMENT mined point at which they ZURICH LIMASSOL MOSCOW SINGAPORE LONDON know that they will intellectually accept that whatever they are doing is not working and that it is time to try something else. But is it the same for individuals and for growth was high thanks to structural reforms taken policymakers? in earlier years. This time around, such a luxury is The answer seems to be yes. According to the FT, the no longer available. That said, Dragonomics does Greek public has taken out some €5bn out of banks since not think debt levels in the corporate sector are so May 6, prompting the head of the Greek Central bank to high that they will stop companies from borrowing write to the government to warn them, for the first time more. since the whole crisis began three years ago, of an unfolding If the current fissure can be explained by the bank run. Now as Mervyn King rightly pointed out back in first two possibilities above, then the problem is 2008 “when you see a bank run unfolding, the rational likely temporary: i) the time will come when market thing is to participate”. This is why at such times, authorirates reach a clearing level, and ii) with some 19% ties need to step in with “shock and awe” as President of China’s deposits locked up through the required Sarkozy did in 2008 when he guaranteed all French bank reserve ratio, the deposit mobility problem can be deposits. Taking a leaf out of that play-book, and now that a offset with further cuts in the RRR. However if there bank-run is making headlines across all media, it would is a serious demand/uncertainty issue, China will seem that the only way for it to stop would be for a credible have to either accept prolonged growth slowdown power (ECB? EU? German government?...) to come in and or return to the path of easy monetary policy— guarantee deposits. But interestingly, European authorities juicing growth in the short term but at the cost of are doing precisely the reverse right now with the ECB actudelaying crucial structural growth issues. ally cutting funding for Greek banks rather than increasing We cannot say for sure what is weighing on the it. At the very least, this gives the impression that EU policredit cycle in China. However we do not think debt cymakers, like the Greek citizens, may be reaching their levels in China are dangerously high, nor has any‘stop-loss’ as far as supporting Greece goes. thing led us to change our call on China’s structurOf course, over the past three years, Europe has develal growth potential. And with Chinese equities oped quite a track record of tearing up the rule book and about as cheap as they have ever been, the downcoming up with innovative solutions to delay what, to some side is limited. of us, seems as inevitable as “The End” on the back-page of

a children’s book. Still, with a bank run now in full force, one would expect Europe’s policymakers to be meeting and coming up with a response. But there seems to be no summits planned; just a “wait and see” approach as to what the June election will throw up. This could be a reflection of other priorities (e.g., the new French president just finished putting together his new cabinet which very fortunately is not as far to the left of a fish fork as we feared), or just overall fatigue at the whole thing (Angela Merkel’s dealings with the Greeks can be compared to Hank Paulson’s repeated attempts to get Dick Fuld to sell Lehman Brothers, only to see him haggle over price, until Paulson grew so tired of the whole thing that he gave up trying). But the increasingly visible problem, of course, is that with a bank run underway, Greece may not have until June. Events on the ground are starting to move at warp-speed while policymaking in the hallways of Paris, Berlin and Brussels has ground to a standstill. So where do we go from here Assuming that EU policymakers do not come up with a “shock and awe” tactic to stop the bank run, then Greece will have little choice but to start looking for a euro exit.

Which will trigger the main question as to how negative a development this would be for other European and global markets. The general perception is that this would be another Lehman-like event but we are not so sure. For a start, it would perhaps “clear the air” for markets, which generally hate uncertainty. Second, financial market participants are far less leveraged today then they were in 2008, so margin calls would not go flying around the street. Third, a lot of the losses (e.g., CDS on Greece) have already been taken and provisioned for (EMU bank shares are already back to 1987 levels!). Fourth, a Greek exit would likely trigger a “shock and awe” easing policy in favor of other European nations, combined with QE3 from the Fed, easing from the BoJ and PBoC, etc. But finally, if the euro is responsible for much of the misery we are currently seeing in southern Europe, why try so hard to save it? Or as Charles put it in a recent interview on French TV, why save the bubonic plague? www.marcuardheritage.com Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice.

Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance.

Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

22 WORLD MARKETS

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

JPMorgan to be haunted by change in risk model

COMMENTARY

Tsipras talks tough counting on Greek primary budget surplus SHAVASB BOHDJALIAN Greeks have lost their stomach for austerity and the rest of the euro zone has lost its patience with Athens’ broken promises, an analyst told the Wall Street Journal last week summing up the mood in Europe but this does not mean that Greece will exit the eurozone or that the EU will kick the country out of the euro. More likely, the two sides are preparing for a new round of tough negotiations, which eventually will be in the best interests of both sides.

With deposits falling, Greek banks become even more dependent on the European Central Bank to meet their funding needs, exposing the central bank to potentially huge losses if Greece leaves the euro area. In the past two years, deposit outflows have generally averaged between EUR2 bln and EUR3 bln a month, though in January they topped EUR5 bln.

Total borrowing from the ECB accounts for more than one-half of Greece’s gross domestic product. If Greece installs an anti-bailout government that reneges on its austerity promises, it would almost certainly be cut off from ECB funding. The ECB briefly rejected Greek bonds from its normal refinancing operations earlier this year after Athens was placed in default by major ratings agencies following its private-sector bond restructuring. Greek banks were still eligible for emergency funding.

Euro-zone officials have threatened to withhold rescue funds for Greece if it refuses to cut spending and make other reforms it promised as part of its latest bailout. The result would likely be another default on Greece’s bonds, cutting it off from regular ECB funds.

Left-wing Syriza party leader Tsipras has said if he wins the June elections, he will keep Greece in the eurozone, but instead negotiate better repayment terms. His biggest negotiating tool is the fact that Greece’s primary deficit – that’s the government deficit excluding interest payments – will be 1% of gross domestic product in 2012.

It’s the first time in recent history that Greece will achieve such a feat. It’s better than the balances of France, the Netherlands, Spain, Ireland, and Luxembourg, among others. And it’s way down from the 10.4% primary deficit Greece recorded in 2009 – a sign of how much austerity the country has endured over the past three years.

Despite the improvement in state finances, it’s also obvious that Greece cannot pay off the interest on its debt, let alone start making capital repayments. The European Commission projects Greek interest payments, even after the restructuring, will be 6.3% of GDP this year and 6.4% in 2013, easily the biggest interest burden in the 27nation EU. With interest payments this large and nominal GDP expected to drop sharply this year and probably next, full repayment is almost certainly impossible. In effect, Tsipras is stating the obvious fact that Greece’s deficit excluding interest payments is small, and its time for more debt forgiveness to allow the country to grow again.

Tsipras said in the interview with the WSJ that, if push comes to shove, Greece can manage on its own. By not paying its debts, the country would have enough cash to pay its workers and retirees, he said. He also proposes cuts in defense spending, cracking down on waste and corruption, and tackling tax evasion by the rich.

Even if Tsipras wins the June 17 elections, I would not panic as it would simply mean the Greek people are sending a new face to negotiate better terms from the rest of Europe. The Troika have invested too much money in Greece to pull the plug now and Greece cannot live without EU support. Eventually the two sides will find a compromise solution and things will hum along until the next crisis hits Portugal or Spain and attention turns elsewhere.

(Shavasb Bohdjalian is a certified Investment Advisor and CEO of Eurivex Ltd., a Cyprus Investment Firm, authorized and regulated by CySEC, license #114/10 and approved by the Cyprus Stock Exchange to act as Nomad for listings on the Emerging Companies Market.

Eurivex offers complete packages and solutions for all types of listings on the ECM/CSE. The views expressed above are personal and do not bind the company and are subject to change without notice)

Nick Reid scales back UBS role Nick Reid is stepping down as co-head of European, Middle Eastern and African investment banking at UBS, according to a memo seen by Reuters, to spend more time with clients as the firm seeks to rebuild its market share. UBS has fallen down the league table in mergers and acquisitions since the financial crisis and aims to regain a top three position, a person familiar with the matter said.

Rebuilding the franchise could take several years, however, because there can be many months between the announcement and successful closing of a deal.

As a result of the changes, Reid will be able to spend more time with close clients including British consumer goods company Diageo, retailer Kingfisher, Land Securities and British American Tobacco.

UBS scored a publicity coup in March, when it poached top banker Andrea Orcel, architect of some of Europe’s biggest banking deals, to run its investment bank. Orcel worked previously for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and is close to banks including UniCredit and Santander.

James Hartop, who was the other co-head along with Reid, will continue to lead the business, the memo said.

l

Disclosure of change came as losses announced JPMorgan Chase & Co’s decision to radically change the way risk was measured in its Chief Investment Office is likely to dog the bank in the developing crisis over the big trading losses it has suffered.

The move, which allowed the bank to disguise the level of risk that the CIO was taking in its trading, could become a major focal point of investigations by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the FBI, former regulators said. It also will likely become part of investor cases in lawsuits against the bank and its executives.

When JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon announced on May 10 that the company had lost at least $2 bln through “egregious mistakes” in trading, he also said for the first time that the bank had changed its model for measuring so-called value-at-risk in the CIO where the derivatives portfolio was managed.

The change made the CIO’s portfolio, which totaled ANA about $375 bln, appear to be a lot safer than it actually was and gave traders more leeway to make risky bets.

The rest of the bank’s divisions apparently kept to more conservative modeling.

The old model would have sounded alarms by showing that the CIO could lose $129 mln, or more, in a day during the first quarter - a higher reading than during the financial crisis.

But the new model cut that figure almost in half, to $67 mln, clouding the view inside and outside the bank of the danger it faced. That figure was lower than the $69 mln reading at the end of the prior quarter.

Some traders and analysts at other firms estimate the final loss tally could exceed $5 bln as the bank tries to unwind its positions. Dimon has said the losses could total $3 bln or more.

LAWSUITS ABOUT RISK Investors have dumped JPMorgan’s shares since the loss was announced, pushing them down more than 17% and erasing more than $27 bln of market value. Two shareholder lawsuits were filed against the company last week, accusing the bank and its management of taking excessive risk.

The SEC is investigating what happened at JPMorgan, the White House has confirmed. The FBI has also opened a preliminary investiga-

l

Seen becoming a possible focal point of probes

tion, according to agency director Robert Mueller.

“It is logical to expect that the SEC will look at this issue” of the disclosures, as well as why and how the new model was adopted, said Harvey Pitt, a former SEC chairman.

“Regulators are going to want to know if changes were made consistently with the obligation to operate safely and soundly,” said Pitt, who is currently CEO of Kalorama Partners, a business consulting firm.

On May 10, as it explained the losses, the bank showed the $129 mln risk reading from the old model. On a call with analysts that day, Dimon said the bank had tried the new model, and then reverted to the old one, which it had used for several years.

“There are constant changes and updates to models — always trying to get them better than they were before,” Dimon said in the May 10 conference call. “That is LYSIS an ongoing procedure.”

That explanation, “does not pass the smell test,” said Mike Mayo, analyst at investment firm CLSA. “It is a red flag for them to change the model,” said Mayo, author of “Exile on Wall Street,” about the inner workings of big banks.

Banks sometimes refine their value-at-risk, or VaR, models but those commonplace changes do not by themselves produce such dramatically different results, said Christopher Finger, one of the founders of RiskMetrics Group, which pioneered VaR models and is now a unit of MSCI Inc. The model JPMorgan put back in place shows “a huge, huge increase in risk,” Finger said.

Finding out how the company decided to change the model would reveal a lot about its internal controls and about how the traders apparently got the upper hand over risk managers, said Finger.

Risk controls on traders in the CIO were eased last year without Dimon knowing, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing unidentified sources.

Traditional value-at-risk models are not a perfect predictor — for example, they only estimate the possible losses for most days, losses could be even bigger on a few occasions. But even so, they are widely used as a metric by risk managers, traders, and investors.

Abbott may collect millions from LME sale From straitened origins in coal mining and the rag trade, Martin Abbott is in line for a major windfall as the 135-year-old London Metal Exchange goes under the hammer.

If the deal goes through, the LME’s chief executive will collect his share of a shadow equity incentive scheme for a select group of managers which will possibly be worth as much as 21 mln pounds, depending on the selling price.

The LME, a last bastion of open outcry trading in a city dominated by computer dealing, opened its doors to a sale last year. The field has narrowed to three suitors and Abbott is helping to oversee the contest, although the shareholders - banks, traders and other firms which use the LME - must approve any deal.

With the winning bid expected to exceed an independent valuation of 1 bln pounds, 52-year-old Abbott and the other beneficiaries are likely to pocket the kind of payouts that have provoked outrage among ordinary Britons when awarded to bankers.

However, people inside the business seem unconcerned that he is one of a fourmember team scrutinising the bids. “Is it a conflict of interest? I don’t think so. You can only wish the guy luck,” said one head of a shareholding metals trading unit.

For Abbott, it will be a long way from the days when he laboured at the coal face to support his studies for a law degree, or was so badly paid as a journalist on the fashion trade magazine Drapers Record that he had to walk to work because he could not afford the train fare.

Abbott, whose CV also includes a spell as a security guard, participates in a shadow equity incentive scheme along with a small group of colleagues, whose value will be boosted if there is a change of the LME’s ownership.

Two industry sources said he could get 7 mln pounds if the deal succeeds.

The exchange, which accounts for 80% of traded volume in global metal futures transactions, achieved record trading volumes last year of 146.6 mln lots, equivalent to $15.4 trln annually and $61 bln on an average business day.

That’s why CME Group, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and Intercontinental Exchange are vying for the LME, whose contracts serve as global benchmarks for metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc.

Its base is a modest building on Leadenhall Street in the City financial district where futures contracts in metals still change hands in ring trading, although deals are also struck electronically and on the telephone.

CONTROVERSIAL FIGURE Abbott has sometimes been a controversial figure. A decision last year to raise fees still upsets some of the shareholder member firms who use the exchange and his appointment more than five years ago as chief executive raised some eyebrows.

Some people asked what a man with his career, which also included spells as an editor and publisher at top trade magazine Metal Bulletin, could know about the complexities of running the world’s largest metals market.

But industry sources say he rapidly grasped the role and has impressed even his critics. He has led the LME to the brink of an historic sale, overseen the rise in trading volumes and opened the way to building a clearing service.

It is not unusual for chief executives to take part in a sale process and profit from incentive schemes when the deal is done. The LME said this week their scheme demanded “exacting performance criteria for increasing shareholder value”.

Abbott seems to have done that. A 1.2 bln pound sale of the LME translates to around 93 pounds per A, or ordinary share, an almost 20-fold increase from the 4.95 they traded at last July - not bad for a company that reported net profit of 7.7 mln pounds last year.

The exchange operates on a constrained profit model, keeping fees low for its shareholder members, although fees could rise sharply if the LME falls into other hands.

The trading head noted that a 1 bln pound price tag no longer looked extravagant after NYSE Euronext, one of four original bidders, fell out of the race last week when its reported 800 mln pound offer was deemed too low. “Those are crazy numbers. And it gets to the stage where shareholders will say ‘well, what’s the point of holding on relative to my costs potentially increasing?” the metals industry source said.

“Of course there is the potential for us to be bled dry afterwards.

There’s no such thing as a free lunch.”

For Abbott, and the managers on the scheme, a sale could mean as much as 21.2 mln pounds.

This is based on the 302,347 notional shares in the scheme, using 77 pounds per share and after subtracting the exercise price, according to Reuters calculations using figures in the LME’s 2011 financial statement.

Currently the notional shares are valued on a formula that takes into account the company’s profit and tax plus the price of its ordinary shares.

Sources say if HKEx wins the auction, it would keep the LME’s open outcry pit open and other unique aspects unchanged. But it is not certain that Abbott would keep his job.

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

WORLD ª∞RKETS 23

24 WORLD MARKETS

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

Historic Facebook debut falls flat l

Analysts blame large float, ad revenue concerns

The historic initial public offering of Facebook Inc did not go as planned on Friday, as the social networking company’s sky-high valuation combined with trading glitches left the stock languishing near its offering price at the market close.

Facebook shares began trading late Friday morning and opened 11% above the $38 offering price, but after peaking at about $45 slid rapidly at the end of the day to close at $38.23. The IPO was the third-largest in U.S. history and valued eight-year-old Facebook at $104 bln.

The surprisingly weak debut of a stock that analysts had predicted would climb between 10 and 50% is not likely to dent the business prospects of Facebook, which boasts 900 mln users and is upending business practices and social relationships around the world.

But the unexpected developments were a clear setback for Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, which sources said was forced to defend the $38 price level by buying shares on the open market. Many market participants said they expected the stock to remain under pressure this week.

The offering also proved an embarrassment for the NASDAQ: the opening was delayed as the exchange struggled with a huge volume of orders, and for much of the day there were long delays in order confirmation. The SEC said late Friday that it was reviewing the situation.

Social media companies and Internet companies that had hoped to benefit from a Facebook halo effect were instead dragged down Friday, with social gaming giant Zynga dropping almost 15%.

Analysts said Facebook may simply have over-reached in raising the IPO price range, pricing at the top of the range and increasing the size of the offering earlier in the week.

“The underwriters got greedy on behalf of selling shareholders and bumped the price high enough that they didn’t get much of a bump on the first day,” said Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, which did not buy Facebook shares in the IPO. “They increased the size of the deal and that really did a number on it.”

Skeptics have argued all along that a valuation of more than $100 bln — about equivalent to Amazon.com Inc and exceeding that of Hewlett-Packard and Dell combined — was far too high for a company that posted $1 bln in profit and $3.7 bln in revenue in 2011.

Concerns about Facebook’s earnings potential were highlighted by General Motors’ announcement this week that it would no longer buy paid advertising on Facebook.

“You don’t need more than a small pencil and napkin to do a valuation on this, to say there are heroic assumptions in earnings growth to keep this at $100 billion, much less $115 bln or $120 bln,” said Dave Rolfe, fund manager at River Park Wedgewood Fund, which does not own shares in Facebook.

“I know there’s a lot of excitement and exuberance, but it seemed today that the market is starting to do some hard valuation math early on.”

The weak IPO may also give pause to private investors in Silicon Valley who have been pouring money into next-generation Internet companies at very high valuations in the hope of eventually taking them public.

MEDIA CIRCUS At Facebook’s headquarters in Silicon Valley, the day began with company founder and Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, 28, symbolically ringing the opening bell for stock trading on Friday morning.

l

Nasdaq investigating trade execution issues

Wearing his trademark black hoodie, Zuckerberg, whose shares are worth nearly $20 bln and who retains voting control over the company, hugged and high-fived Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s chief operating officer, who is credited with bringing crucial business discipline to a company founded in a Harvard dorm room.

The area outside Facebook’s offices was packed with photographers, more than a dozen television trucks, and a TV news helicopter hovering overhead.

Outside Nasdaq headquarters in New York, crowds also gathered, even as exchange officials struggled to sort out trading problems that left investors guessing whether their buy and sell orders had actually been executed.

The IPO minted thousands of new paper millionaires among Facebook’s 3,500 employees — and a handful of billionaires among its founders and early investors. More than half of the proceeds of the IPO will go to existing shareholders, including early backers such as Accel Partners and Russia’s DST Global.

In the run-up to the IPO, demand from institutional investors was strong, and many analysts had expected an influx of retail investors keen on owning a slice of a cultural phenomenon regardless of price. But that did not materialize.

“Flippers who waited all day for a pop that did not come decided to throw in the towel and get out,” said Mohannad Aama, managing director at Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.

“That group also includes people who over-extended themselves in getting more shares than they can afford to hold — whether they got it from the syndicate or from the open market once it opened around noon.”

Still, from Facebook’s perspective, the stock performance could be seen as reflecting smart pricing: Zuckerberg and early investors pocketed maximum gains and left little of the easy money on the table.

“You want to price the offering correctly. Institutional buyers get a little bump and the company raises the right amount of money,” said Kevin Hartz, co-founder and CEO of Eventbrite, an online ticketing startup that is integrated with Facebook’s platform. “If the stock has a massive bump on day one, that means you misread market demand and the company could have raised more money with the same amount of dilution, or could have raised the same amount of money with less dilution.”

BATTLE OF THE GIANTS Facebook faces many challenges as it takes its place beside Google, Apple and Amazon as one of the giant public companies defining the next-generation Internet economy. Google in particular views Facebook as a mortal threat and is moving aggressively to integrate social networking features across its products.

At the same time, scores of young companies are building new products and services, in some cases on top of the Facebook platform and in some cases in competition with it, and attracting huge amounts of investment capital.

A handful of such so-called Web 2.0 companies, including Zynga, LinkedIn, Yelp and Groupon, have already gone public, and others have been acquired by the industry giants. All of those stocks fell on Friday in sympathy with Facebook’s weaker-than-expected debut.

In an indication of the land grab now under way in the Internet world, Facebook in April spent $1 bln to acquire Instagram, a tiny photo-

sharing company with lots of users but no revenue. A Facebook rival, social scrap-booking site Pinterest, raised money earlier last week at a valuation of $1.5 bln in a sign that venture capitalists and other private investors still see enormous potential in Web 2.0 companies.

Many of Facebook’s users spend hours a day on the site and share enormous amounts of personal information. That in turn enables Facebook to target its advertising to people’s specific interests, and many analysts believe the huge store of personal information gives Facebook an advantage that Google and others cannot match.

“Literally everything you see on the Internet, you could see inside Facebook — but done with much more of the social graph built into it,” said Siva Kumar, CEO of e-commerce company TheFind. “In a way, they operate the mall, and everybody in the mall will pay some way or the other to Facebook.”

Analysts say the company has vast untapped opportunities in mobile computing, where it has been weak thus far, and potentially in other Internet services such as email and search. Zuckerberg, though unproven as a public company CEO, is widely admired as a product visionary who has done a masterful job in continually improving the Facebook experience.

Skeptics, though, note that only a small percentage of Facebook users respond to advertising on the site. Google retains a big advantage in that regard, because advertising related to specific Internet searches is by nature far more relevant and thus more valuable.

In Silicon Valley, though, the conventional wisdom is that Facebook and its social media brethren will be an increasingly important force in the business world for many years to come.

And no matter how the industry dynamics unfold over the long term, the influx of wealth arising from Facebook’s extraordinary growth has already helped drive a mini-boom in San Francisco Bay Area real estate. Income tax revenues related to the IPO will cut the state of California’s budget deficit by an estimated $2 bln.

Zuckerberg’s post-IPO wedding is smart legal move Getting married was a smart business move as well as a personal milestone for Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, with the timing of the wedding, the day after the company’s initial public offering, potentially proving particularly advantageous, California divorce lawyers said on Sunday.

Assuming the couple signed a prenuptial agreement, as most wealthy Californians do, Zuckerberg and Chan would have agreed exactly how to split assets, including his Facebook stock, if their marriage dissolved in future. Even without a prenup, the wedding’s timing would help establish the value of their assets in the event of any future divorce battle, lawyers said.

A spokeswoman for Facebook declined to comment on whether the couple signed such an agreement.

Priscilla Chan and Zuckerberg live together in the modest house in Palo Alto, Calif., where they were married on Saturday. The couple met as undergraduates at Harvard University in 2004. Zuckerberg, now 28, dropped out of college to work on Facebook, while Chan, a pediatrician, stayed to earn her undergraduate degree in 2007.

Chan’s work led to Facebook creating an organ donation page. The pair recently travelled to China.

Had they continued the status quo, Chan could potentially lay claim to a much larger portion of assets, including a chunk of his $20 bln in Facebook shares, lawyers say.

“In California, people who live together without the benefit of marriage could claim they had an agreement to pool resources and efforts,” said Napa lawyer Robert Blevans. Although they are hard to prove, “those claims can get really ugly.”

Blevans cited the case of Anthony Maglica, the founder of the company that makes Maglite flashlights. In 1994, an Orange County

court awarded $84 mln to Maglica’s girlfriend Claire, who took his name and lived with him for 23 years. Although an appeals court reversed the award in 1998, she later negotiated a $29 mln

settlement. The same logic— avoiding messy court fights— enters into the calculus of a prenuptial agreement. “One of the primary reasons that wealthy people enter into prenups is to prevent the type of carnage that can come with divorce,” said Garrett Dailey, an appellate attorney in Oakland. “Better to sort it out in advance.”

DIVIDING ASSETS California is one of a handful of states with communityproperty laws. Most states rely on equitable-division rules, which give more flexibility to a judge in dividing assets.

In Chan’s case, she could lay claim to a portion of the options and grants in Facebook stock that vest during the time of their marriage, lawyers said.

If there were no prenup, or if there were and Chan contested it, she could also try to go after stock Zuckerberg held previously if she could claim it increased in value during the relationship and the increase was due directly to Zuckerberg’s efforts. Lawyers said that is hard to prove for publicly-traded companies. “In an organization of this size, that’s not going to happen,” Blevans said.

But still, in case of such a clash, it would likely help Zuckerberg that the marriage took place the day after the initial public offering.

“The value of the company is absolutely known,” said Dailey. “There’s no dispute over it.” If the timing of the marriage so close to the IPO was accidental, “then it was a very nice coincidence,” said Blevans.

Getting married after Zuckerberg achieved such a high level of success probably made the couple at least consider a prenuptial agreement.

Lawyers said there was no guarantee the couple signed an agreement, citing divorce cases involving wealthy people such as actor Mel Gibson and singer Paul McCartney who skipped prenups. But they say it is likely they did.

“In every single state, a wealthy person is better with a prenup,” said Dailey. “I cannot comprehend Zuckerberg marrying without one.”

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

WORLD MARKETS

25

Marks & Spencer posts first profit fall in 3 years Bellwether British retailer Marks & Spencer posted a 1.2% fall in fullyear underlying profit, its first decline in three years, as even its relatively older and more affluent customers were touched by the economic downturn.

Britain’s biggest clothing retailer, which also sells homewares and upmarket foods, said it made a profit before tax and one-off items of 705.9 mln pounds in the year to March 31.

That was down from the 714 mln pounds made in 2010/11 and compares with analyst forecasts in a range of 675-706 mln pounds, according to a company poll which put the consensus number at 694 mln pounds.

Last month M&S missed fourth-quarter sales forecasts after running out of best-selling women’s knitwear and footwear lines but said it would meet year profit expectations having made further cost savings.

Full-year sales at the 128-year-old group, which serves about 21 mln Britons a week from over 730 stores, rose 2% to 9.9 bln pounds, with sales at UK stores open over a year up 0.3%.

The firm said it would pay a maintained dividend of 17p.

“M&S performed well in a challenging economic environment ... holding market share. We also made good progress with our strategic plans,” said Chief Executive Marc Bolland.

He said the firm’s UK pilot stores had delivered good results, giving it confidence to roll-out the programme.

Bolland said M&S was also on track to become a truly international multi-channel retailer.

“By the end of this year we will be transacting from ten websites worldwide and opening around 100 international stores per year,” he said.

M&S did not comment on current trading, saying it would update on the first quarter on July 10.

Many UK retailers are struggling as shoppers grapple with higher prices, particularly for fuel, muted wage growth and government austerity measures, and worry about job security, shaky housing markets and fallout from the euro zone debt crisis.

A survey on Monday said Briton’s household finances worsened at their fastest rate in four months in May, while earlier this month cards and gifts chain Clinton Cards collapsed into administration, a form of protection from creditors.

M&S said last month it had enjoyed a good start to its spring/summer clothing launch, backed by an advertising campaign featuring Take That star Gary Barlow singing The Beatles classic “Here Comes The Sun”.

The campaign is designed to capture the celebratory mood — and boost trade — that M&S hopes will be generated by Queen Elizabeth II’s Diamond Jubilee, Euro 2012 soccer and the London Olympics.

However, after M&S updated on April 17 Britain endured a further month of torrential rain that is particularly unhelpful for fashion sales.

Better weather is forecast for the next two weeks.

Shares in M&S, which prior to Tuesday’s update had lost 14% of their value over the last year, closed at 337 pence on Monday, valuing the business at 5.41 bln pounds.

LVMH looks to burnish Vuitton mystique and buoy sales French luxury giant LVMH is struggling to retain its image as exclusive and high-end creators of $10,000 alligator handbags and goat-lined fur coats, while opening enough stores and reaching enough customers to keep profits high.

Thus far LVMH has managed the balance well, but it is taking no chances, offering customers inceasingly expensive and bespoke services in an effort to retain a high-end mystique around brands in danger of becoming ubiquitous.

LVMH is taking particular care to protect the image of Louis Vuitton, the group’s signature brand, which accounts for 45% of operating profit, and has boasted double digit percentage growth through the financial crisis.

It is the company’s cash cow - with estimated revenues of 6.5 bln euros - and analysts estimate that if handled well, Louis Vuitton could see its sales nearly double within seven years, with much of the growth coming from Asia. l “LVMH remains very conscious of the risk that its bags, tied to the relative accessiblity of the monogrammed bags, might become too common,” said Serge Carrieria, a specialist in luxury brands and professor at the French university L’Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris.

Louis Vuitton’s revenues are almost double those of rival luxury goods group PPR’s Gucci, widely considered its closest French competitor.

Offers ‘ultra-luxe’ hand made bags

THE HERMES MODEL The company is trying to counter the image that the Louis Vuitton monogram is both too common and easily copied by offering certain customers bespoke leather bags that cost two or three times more than the standard 800 euro Louis Vuitton bag.

In this LVMH is taking a page from Hermes, the family run luxury concern that boasts 30% operating margins and in which LVMH recently took a 22% stake.

Hermes retains an aura of rare exclusivity by maintaining long waiting lists for some items, like its 4,000 euro Kelly bag, and charging up to 100,000 euros for a snakeskin coat.

Much of Hermes’s leather goods are still handmade, allowing the company to charge eye-popping prices for even small items such as wallets and key rings.

At Louis Vuitton, customers can choose from 26 patterns and eight different animal skin colors for the leather goods they want. Artisans in a sub-

urb of Paris will produce the product in four to six weeks and guarantee that few if any replicas will be produced.

Such bespoke items can cost anywhere from 5,000 euros to several times that, and customers are encouraged to feel that they are not just buying a luxury object, but participating in the creation of a brand’s image.

“In all the Louis Vuitton stores the buying experience is incredible.

Even if you buy a bag for 600 euros everything is done to give you the feeling of acquiring an exceptional product,” said one analyst who requested anonymity.

A SLOW ROLLOUT But while LVMH tries to burnish the image around its products, an iron hand over the distribution network allows it to not only control margins but make sure that its marketing decisions are adhered to.

In order to protect the sense of timelessness around the brands, LVMH does not allow Louis Vuitton items to go on sale, a move that would be more difficult for PPR, which does not control its distribution network to the same extent.

LVMH is also careful about the rollout of new stores - none were opened in 2011 - aware that the brand would suffer from too much visibility. At the same time, Louis Vuitton, which now has 461 stores in 50 countries, favours increasing floor size at existing stores.

It is also gradually rolling out welllocated megastores exceeding 1,000 square feet. Another sign of the tension between the brand’s mass-market appeal and the necessity of preserving its up-market appeal.

The stores, located in high traffic areas such as the Champs Elysee in Paris, Bond Street in London and 5th Avenue in New York, can carry pricey rents, but customers are given the full-on Louis Vuitton experience from clothes to bags to the smaller leather goods which are extremely profitable.

LVMH believes so strongly in the concept of megastores that it plans to open another six stores exceeding 1,000 square feet to add to the 14 that exist. “They focus on offering their products in increasingly large shops,” said another analyst who requested anonymity. “This optimizes the network and maximizes sales per square metre.”

Even as the megastores lure thousands, they minister to their favoured customers in separate “salons” that offer the luxurious custom bags that the tourists and curiosity seekers who flock to the stores can only dream of.

Graff braves markets with $1 bln IPO Luxury jeweller Graff Diamonds, famous for its giant and rare gems, is forging ahead with a Hong Kong listing despite a sell-off that has rattled equity markets, setting a price range on Friday that would value the company at up to $4 bln.

The London-based jeweller, whose pieces have been worn by celebrities including Imelda Marcos and Oprah Winfrey, set an indicative price range of HK$25-HK$37 per share.

Billionaire Laurence Graff, a self-made man who left school to take an apprenticeship in diamonds and founded the jeweller that bears his name, wants to raise $1 bln to expand his retail network in China and other emerging markets, and to bolster his position in the industry. The company plans to sell $850 mln of new shares and $150 mln in existing shares.

Graff is hoping to join Italian fashion house Prada SpA , luggage maker Samsonite, French cosmetics company L’Occitane and other global brands that have listed in Hong Kong looking to tap booming consumer demand and rising wealth in Asia.

Luxury goods sales in China nearly tripled from 4.5 bln euros in 2007 to 12.9 bln in 2011, the company said in its preliminary offer prospectus, estimating Chinese customers account for around 20% of such consumption once spending outside their country is included.

Asia, where Graff has five of his 18 directly operated stores and plans to open another five this year, has gone from less than 13% of revenue for the company’s retail arm in 2009 to more than 19% in 2011.

But Graff is tapping equity markets after the worst start for IPOs in the Asia-Pacific region in about four years, with overall equity market activity down about a fifth from 2011.

Luxury goods stocks have also slumped, with Chow Tai Fook down about 16.6% over the period and Tiffany & Co. falling 8.6%.

The company is betting on resilient demand for diamonds and highend jewellery in coming years, its founder, one of Britain’s richest men, said in November. Last year 43.8% of its revenue came from its top 20 customers, with one individual alone making up 13.2%.

Man Utd earnings hit by poor cup runs English soccer club Manchester United, rated by Forbes as the world’s most highly-valued sports team, showed the first effects of a rare barren season when reporting a dip in quarterly revenue and underlying profit.

United, deposed as Premier League champions last week by local rivals Manchester City, paid the price for a failure to make it beyond the group stages of the Champions League, having reached the final of Europe’s premier tournament in 2010-11.

The club had its woes compounded by an exit from the Europa League, Europe’s secondary competition, at the round of 16 stage.

That relatively poor performance saw United’s revenue fall 6% to 70.8 mln pounds in the first quarter of 2012. Underlying profit (EBITDA) declined to 20.4 mln pounds from 22.3 mln in the 2011 period.

Commercial income rose and overtook revenues from matchday and media, thanks to new sponsorship agreements including one with logistics company DHL. United, owned by the American Glazer family and who have won the English title a record 19 times, have an estimated 330 mln fans globally - its website says it is the world’s most popular team.

The club put plans to float in Singapore on hold last year because of market volatility, and there has been speculation that the plan could be revived.

The success of Manchester City, bankrolled by Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has put the spotlight back on how the Glazers are running United.

The owners of the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers bought the club in 2005 in a leveraged deal that has saddled United with hefty annual interest payments. Gross debt stood at 423 mln pounds according to the latest figures.

Chief executive David Gill said that manager Alex Ferguson would have money to spend to strengthen his squad after they failed to win a trophy for the first time since 2005.

“We can compete. Why can we compete? Well, because our revenues are in the top three in world football and they are growing significantly in terms of our commercial area and the media area,” Gill told reporters.

“We still pay very good contracts but we also have other assets at Manchester United that we believe can be used to get the best players in, whether it is Alex Ferguson and his record, or (the chance to play alongside) players like Ryan Giggs or our history and heritage.”

As part of their renewal, United have released former England striker Michael Owen after three injury-plagued years at the club.

Tesco CEO turns down £372,000 bonus Tesco Chief Executive Philip Clarke has opted not to take his annual bonus as a result of poor performance in its core British market. The world’s No.3 retailer, whose shares have lost almost a quarter of their value so far this year, said in a statement on its website to coincide with the publication of the retailer’s annual report that its top 5,000 managers would receive a reduced annual bonus representing 16.9% of their maximum entitlement.

Executive directors will receive 13.5% of the maximum. “I decided at the beginning of the year that I would decline my annual bonus for 2012,” Clarke said in a statement emailed to Reuters. “I wasn’t satisfied with the performance in the UK and I won’t take the bonus.

I’m confident that we’re tackling the right issues.”

Clarke would have been entitled to a payout of about 372,000 pounds had he taken the 13.5% being paid to other executive directors.

26

CSE NEWS

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012 CSE CODE OASIS

ΟΑΣΗΣ

Kωδ.

Index performance CSE General Index FTSE/CySE 20 FTSE/XA & XAK Banking MAIN MARKET MAIN MARKET INDEX BOCY ΤΡΚΥ BANK OF CYPRUS CYPRUS POPULAR BANK CPB ΛΑΙΚ HELLENIC BANK HB ΕΛΗΤ LOG ΛΟΤΖ LOGICOM LUI ΛΟΥΗ LOUIS LTD A. TSOKKOS HOTELS TSH ΤΣΟΚ ORPHANIDES ORF ΟΡΦΑ SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO PARALLEL MARKET PARALLEL MARKET INDEX FWW ΓΟΥΛ WOOLWORTH (CYPRUS) PROP VCW ΤΣΙΒ VASSILIKO CEMENT ERMES DEPARTMENT STORES ERME ΕΡΜΕ A&P (ANDREOU&PARASKEV.) APE ΑΝΠΑ LI ΛΕΠΕ MARFIN CLR PUBLIC CO A. ZORBAS & SONS ZRP ΖΟΡΠ K. ATHIENITIS CONTR. - DEV. ACD ΑΘΗΕ G.A.P VASSILOPOULOS GAP ΒΑΣΙ KAN ΚΑΝΙ KANIKA HOTELS MITSIDES MIT ΜΙΤΣ LIBERTY LIFE INSURANCE LIB ΛΙΠΕ PHIL. ANDREOU PHIL ΦΙΛΑ LHH ΛΟΞΕ LORDOS HOTELS HOLDINGS LORDOS UNITED PLASTIC LPL ΛΟΡ∆ SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO ALTERNATIVE MARKET ALTERNATIVE INDEX A. PANAYIDES CONTRACTING APC ΑΠΑΝ AD SHOPPING GALLERIES AD ΑΘΩΣ ALKIS HADJ. (FROU-FROU) FBI ΦΡΟΥ A.L. PROCHOICE FIN. SERV. PROP ΠΡΟΠ AMATHUS PUBLIC LTD ANC ΑΜΑΘ AST ΑΣΤΑ ASTARTI DEVELOPMENT ATLANTIC INSURANCE ATL ΑΤΑΣ AVACOM PUBLIC CO. LTD. ACS ΑΒΑΚ BLUE ISLAND FISH FARMING BLUE ΜΠΛΕ CCCH ΣΙΧΟ CCC HOLDINGS & INV. CCC TOURIST ENT. CCCT ΣΙΤΟ CHARILAOS APOSTOLIDES CHAP ΧΑΡΙ CHRIS JOANNOU LTD CJ ΙΟΑΝ CLA ΚΛΑΡ CLARIDGE INVESTMENTS CLR INVESTMENT FUND CLL ΣΛΕΠ CONSTANTINOU BROS. CBH ΚΩΝΣ CPIH ΚΕΑΕ CPI ENTER. DEVELOPMENT CTO ΣΤΟ C.T.O. PUBLIC CO CYPRINT LTD. CYP ΣΑΙΠ CCC ΚΕΤΣ CYPRUS CEMENT CYPRUS FOREST IND. CFI ∆ΒΚ∆ CYPRUS TRADING CORP. CTC ΣΤΣ∆ CYVENTURE CAPITAL EXE ΒΕΝΤ DIMCO PLC DES ΝΤΙΜ DISPLAY ART LTD DISP ΝΤΙΑ ELLINAS FINANCE ELF ΕΛΛΗ ELMA HOLDINGS ELMA ΕΛΕΠ EMPIRE CAPITAL INV. EMP ΕΜ EUROPROFIT CAPITAL ERP ΓΙΟΥ EXELIXIS INVESTMENT EXIN ΕΞΕΠ FILOKTIMATIKI PES ΦΙΛΟ K & G COMPLEX KG ΚΚΟΜ KARA KARAOLIS GROUP KARKOTIS MANUFACTURING KARK ΚΑΡΚ KEO LTD KEO ΚΕΟ KOSMOS INSURANCE COS ΚΟΣΑ KRONOS PRESS DIST. KRO ΚΡΟΝ JUPITER PORTFOLIO INV. ARI ΤΖΕΠ L.P. TRANSBETON TRB ΤΡΑΝ LEPTOS CALYPSO HOTELS LCH ΛΕΠΤ MALLOUPAS & PAPACOSTAS MPT ΜΑΠΑ MINERVA INSURANCE MINE ΜΙΝΕ MODESTOU SOUND & VISION MSV ΜΟ∆Ε NEMESIS CONSTRUCTIONS NEM ΝΕΜΕ O.C. OPTIONS CHOICE OPT ΟΚΑΣ PANDORA INVESTMENTS PND ΠΑΝ∆ PIPIS FARM PIPF ΠΙΠΗ PETROLINA HOLDINGS PHL ΛΙΝΑ PIERIDES HOLDINGS PGE ΠΙΕΡ PRIMETEL PLC PTL ΠΤΕΛ PROODOS AGROS AGRO ΑΓΡΟ RENOS HADJIOANNOU FARMS FRH ΡΕΝΟ ROYAL HIGHGATE LTD ROY ΡΟΧΑ SALAMIS TOURS SAL ΣΑΛΑ SFS GROUP PUBLIC CO. SFS ΕΣΕΦ STADEMOS HOTELS SHL ΣΤΑ∆ STARIO INVESTMENTS STAR ΣΤΕΠ TOP KINISIS TRAVEL TOP ΤΟΚΙ TOXOTIS INVESTMENTS COV ΤΟΕΠ UNIFAST FIN. & INV. UFI ΦΑΣΤ VISION INTL PEOPLE GROUP VIP ΒΙΖΝ SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO APPROVED INVESTMENTS / EΠEN∆YTIKOI OPΓAN. INVESTMENT INDEX ACTIBOND GROWTH FUND ACT ΑΚΕΠ APOLLO INVESTMENT FUND APOL ΑΠΕΠ FINIKAS AMMOCHOSTOU CONF ΚΟΕΠ CYTRUSTEES INV. PUBLIC CO CYTR ΣΑΕΠ DEMETRA INV. PUBLIC CO. DEM ∆ΗΕΠ DODONI PORTFOLIO DOD ∆ΩΕΠ HARVEST CAPITAL HCM ΧΑΕΠ

Number

Nominal

Market

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ.

EUR

1 795 141 1 611 111 308 004 74 080 460 547 246 214 80 966

114 252 71 936 175 000 182 725 285 713 15 296 13 416 38 750 60 250 8 200 90 804 45 000 35 000 48 006

36 572 128 936 98 861 158 660 107 226 99 925 39 109 72 562 15 438 44 000 141 692 50 000 10 070 108 163 288 141 160 714 24 379 208 700 5 140 137 611 3 059 92 079 14 973 80 999 13 506 16 000 348 333 47 853 31 344 34 000 4 805 100 000 22 343 7 967 30 978 17 985 20 400 62 446 8 571 101 683 43 211 78 415 14 900 61 056 46 355 424 435 9 660 87 500 22 100 300 194 3 590 272 915 33 000 36 529 66 520 32 500 38 581 12 212 20 700 9 988 75 000

58 430 56 582 49 385 44 494 200 000 282 483 14 000

1.00 0.10 0.43 0.35 0.17 0.35 0.35

0.34 0.43 0.34 0.17 0.27 0.34 0.35 0.17 0.35 1.03 0.10 0.17 0.35 0.35

0.35 0.17 0.26 0.09 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 0.43 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.15 0.35 0.17 0.87 0.43 0.43 1.73 0.85 0.43 0.09 0.35 0.62 0.09 0.87 0.09 0.29 0.87 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 1.73 0.03 0.17 0.43 1.00 0.69 0.17 0.34 0.03 0.05 $ 0.10

0.17 0.34 0.10 0.30 0.87 0.02 0.17

Book Value Price to Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Profit/(Loss)

2010 Book Value Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.

561 879 172 389 61 601 20 816 11 053 12 311 7 206 847 255

1.54 0.31 1.40 0.75 0.30 0.54 1.74 0.94

0.20 0.35 0.14 0.38 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.19

114 320 40 284 26 250 33 804 16 571 11 625 9 525 5 425 8 074 5 125 3 451 4 230 3 150 3 312 285 146

1.78 3.01 0.49 0.26 0.27 2.40 4.39 0.33 0.68 3.50 0.09 0.12 1.69 0.56 1.40

0.18 0.19 0.31 0.72 0.22 0.32 0.16 0.43 0.20 0.18 0.43 0.77 0.05 0.12 0.30

6 217 11 604 14 829 3 173 8 578 4 996 30 114 9 433 2 779 11 880 8 502 3 000 201 5 408 2 881 14 464 7 314 8 348 1 234 19 266 5 751 35 911 2 096 7 290 810 5 280 6 967 39 239 627 4 760 2 066 11 000 447 956 18 587 2 158 12 036 4 371 1 971 7 118 8 210 2 352 149 15 875 464 42 444 773 63 875 1 547 18 012 5 816 2 729 1 980 3 288 5 987 6 825 386 3 175 414 200 75 000 603 162

0.90 0.06 0.51 0.04 0.52 0.26 0.73 0.29 0.77 2.25 0.51 0.25 0.46 0.44 0.09 0.75 0.65 0.12 0.36 1.66 7.84 1.81 0.49 0.23 0.35 0.76 0.06 0.05 0.20 0.79 2.47 0.62 0.07 0.12 3.71 0.48 0.74 0.3920 0.41 0.94 0.62 0.14 0.02 0.57 0.22 0.24 0.36 1.29 0.42 0.04 3.43 0.04 0.16 0.52 1.89 2.34 0.05 0.41 0.05 0.12 0.15 0.77 NAV

0.19 1.50 0.29 0.57 0.15 0.19 1.05 0.44 0.23 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.04 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.46 0.35 0.68 0.08 0.24 0.22 0.29 0.39 0.17 0.43 0.33 16.40 0.10 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.27 1.04 0.16 0.25 0.80 0.56 0.07 0.30 0.22 0.43 0.45 0.04 0.41 0.22 0.56 0.17 1.67 0.47 0.25 0.38 0.17 0.05 0.09 0.64 0.43 0.17 6.61 0.71 Disc/Prem

1 169 6 224 988 6 229 44 000 2 825 1 260

0.0434 0.2826 0.0157 0.3314 0.7474 0.0174 0.0634

-53.92 -61.08 27.39 -57.75 -70.56 -42.53 41.96

3M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

3M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

Profit/(Loss)

2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

2010

3M '11

3M '12

2011

306 000 87 100 8 889 3 274 -10 243 -17 397 3 328 380 951

74 000

295 000

74 000

295 000

-1 371 000 -3 650 380 -100 658 3 585 -82 674 -6 894 -8 648 -5 216 669

2010

3M '11

3M '12

2011

8 848 1 310 6 309 4 108 -47 1 846 25 987 -1 903 -703 2 574 -8 419 -1 453 456 71 38 984

0

0

6 674 -1 174 245 4 122 -1 734 989 2 133 -1 600 -77 -947 -2 667 -1 333 759 -1 302 4 088

2010

3M '11

3M '12

2011

1 767 -3 960 4 363 -5 724 -1 339 -11 422 4 108 -2 203 257 -3 542 -6 512 1 542 -622 -3 641 -7 007 440 -157 1 211 -1 031 -6 432 568 13 270 1 157 2 183 -380 575 -5 602 -504 -980 1 048 614 -1 668 -844 -738 -3 358 -760 969 -2 094 -501 -3 469 -1 746 -4 952 -594 5 981 -9 573 -9 238 313 8 617 11 -5 231 362 14 344 131 -9 983 1 165 -1 062 -181 -25 -43 -330 -66 438

0

0

-551 -212 -15 562 1 608 5 130 -2 198 -110 -3 948 -804 100 -1 392 -438 -6 299 1 345 -3 185 -281 2 076 -2 192 -16 880 -1 314 10 753 -868 -6 352 73 151 546 964 -19 100 1 577 -1 737 -689 11 -37 2 753 -108 231

2010

3M '11

3M '12

2011

-760 -3 213 -2 533 -10 875 -15 581 -5 227 -6

373 -12 265 2 334 -2 594 -2 121 -6 400 2 306 -2 754 570 2 416 -3 519 -7 900 -375 -3 942 -7 654 -4 006 -65 -3 921 -513 -4 630 -4 127 5 693 1 104 1 604 -526 -257

-737 -4 301 -1 465 -10 771 -14 687 -6 357 -255

P/E ratio 2011

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield

Share

Share 2011 Cents

%

Results Cents

n/a n/a n/a 5.81 n/a n/a n/a 0.14

5.44 n/a 107.14 8.20 n/a 11.75 4.47 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.15 n/a 11.93

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο

Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ.

31/12/2011

% Change

since

385.85 134.85 365.45

159.14 59.26 152.47

159.14 59.26 152.47

295.94 104.60 196.84

-46.23 -43.35 -22.54

377.70 0.76 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.04 0.05 0.12

148.10 0.31 0.11 0.20 0.26 0.02 0.05 0.08

148.10 0.31 0.11 0.20 0.28 0.02 0.05 0.09

286.83 0.61 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.04 0.05 0.12

-48.37 -48.69 -63.97 -44.60 4.46 -35.14 -1.96 -26.45

Cents -76.37 -226.58 -32.68 4.84 -17.95 -2.80 -10.68

Cents

%

2.50

8.90

Cents 5.84 -1.63 0.14 2.26 -0.61 6.47 15.90 -4.13 -0.13 -11.55 -2.94 -2.96 2.17 -2.71

Cents 5.80

% 18.24

704.24 0.34 0.57 0.17 0.20 0.07 0.80 1.10 0.18 0.12 0.65 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.07

647.60 0.30 0.35 0.15 0.16 0.05 0.46 0.66 0.14 0.10 0.62 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.06

689.62 0.32 0.56 0.15 0.19 0.06 0.76 0.71 0.14 0.13 0.63 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.07

656.6 0.32 0.35 0.167 0.18 0.06 0.65 1.00 0.18 0.11 0.63 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.06

5.03 -0.31 62.32 -10.18 3.35 -7.94 17.28 -29.00 -22.22 21.82 -0.79 -19.15 -4.08 8.43 15.00

Cents 1.02 -9.51 2.36 -1.63 -1.98 -6.40 5.90 -3.80 3.69 5.49 -2.48 -15.80 -3.72 -3.64 -2.66 -2.49 -0.27 -1.88 -9.98 -3.36 -134.91 6.18 7.37 1.98 -3.89 -1.61 -1.15 -0.68 -45.77 33.47 5.13 -9.84 -1.38 -12.74 -4.47 0.49 -2.23 -5.11 -6.19 3.11 -4.06 -1.89 3.40 -4.73 -3.98 -13.60 12.29 -3.93 -2.12 2.03 0.06 1.65 2.64 -28.71 4.85 -4.50 -5.64 0.05 -0.37 3.67

Cents

%

740.44

722.24

0.91

6.07

7.00

9.09

1.20

6.67

8.50

11.64

2.00

9.52

714.16 0.17 0.09 0.15 0.02 0.08 0.05 0.77 0.13 0.18 0.27 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.30 0.04 0.24 0.14 1.88 0.39 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.33 0.02 0.82 0.02 0.14 0.43 0.11 0.02 0.12 0.60 0.12 0.59 0.07 0.23 0.07 0.19 0.03 0.01 0.26 0.01 0.10 0.08 0.73 0.07 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.21 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

738.87 0.17 0.11 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.83 0.16 0.21 0.26 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.31 0.05 0.32 0.18 3.20 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.38 0.02 0.62 0.03 0.15 0.48 0.12 0.03 0.14 0.70 0.09 0.65 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.52 0.06 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.23 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

-3.34 0.00 -18.18 -6.25 0.00 -20.00 0.00 -7.23 -18.75 -14.29 3.85 -14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.23 -20.00 -25.00 -22.22 -41.25 21.88 -17.65 0.00 0.00 -13.16 0.00 32.26 -33.33 -6.67 -10.42 -8.33 -33.33 -14.29 -14.29 33.33 -9.23 -22.22 0.00 -12.50 0.00 -25.00 0.00 23.81 0.00 -9.09 0.00 40.38 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 -25.00 0.00 -10.00 -8.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cents -1.26 -7.60 -2.97 -24.21 -7.34 -2.25 -1.82

Cents

%

529.63

441.63

494.44 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.14 0.22 0.01 0.09

454.51 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.01 0.10

8.79 0.00 22.22 -33.33 0.00 15.79 0.00 -10.00

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012 CSE CODE OASIS

ΟΑΣΗΣ

Kωδ.

APPROVED INVESTMENTS / EΠEN∆YTIKOI OPΓAN. INTERFUND INVESTMENTS INF ΙΝΕΠ ISCHIS INVESTMENT ISXI ΙΣΕΠ REGALLIA HOLD. & INV. REG ΡΕΕΠ TRIENA INV. INCOME TINC ΤΕΕΠ TRIENA INV. CAPITAL TCAP ΤΚΕΠ TRIENA INTERNATIONAL TINT Τ∆ΕΠ UNIGROWTH INVESTMENTS UNI ΓΙΕΠ SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO SHIPPING COMPANIES SECTOR

SPECIAL CATEGORY / AIANTAS INVESTMENTS CEILFLOOR CYPRUS AIRWAYS D.H. CYPROTELS D&M TELEMARKETING DOME INVESTMENTS EFREMICO HOLDINGS G&K EXCLUSIVE FASHIONS KARYES INVESTMENTS KNOSSOS INV. K. KYTHREOTIS HOLDINGS LASER INVESTMENT GROUP LIBRA GROUP OCEAN TANKERS ROLANDOS ENTERPRISES SAFS HOLDINGS SEA STAR CAPITAL SUPHIRE HOLDINGS USB BANK WOODLAND DESIGNS PLC SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO

CSE NEWS

Number

Nominal

Market

Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ.

EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

56 545 11 000 20 247 2 729 2 729 1 364 13 468

0.51 0.51 0.09 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.17

3 393 440 405 2 183 5 458 818 3 367 78 759

NAV 0.1819 0.0673 0.0344 1.0430 2.1427 0.6125 0.2719

Price to

Profit/(Loss)

Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.

Disc/Prem -67.01 -40.56 -41.86 -23.30 -6.66 -2.04 -8.05

3M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

-12 850 -112 -195 389 -446 -7 -127 -51 543

0

3M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

0

-9 493 -165 -150 331 -136 -36 -303 -48 525

Profit/(Loss)

ΑΙΕΠ ΣΙΦΛ ΚΑΕΡ ∆ΡΟΥ ΤΕΛΕ ΝΤΟ∆ ΕΦΡΕ ΕΞΦΑ ΚΑΕΠ ΚΝΕΠ ΚΥΘΡ ΛΕΕΠ ΛΙΠΡ ΤΑΝΚ ΡΟΛΑ ΣΑΦΣ ΣΕΑΣ ΣΑΠΦ ΤΡΑΓ ΓΟΥΤ

81 202 5 055 391 155 157 138 7 700 25 000 11 385 6 698 2 000 21 827 42 450 61 739 189 377 296 665 54 166 70 220 629 785 124 009 60 674 13 000

0.21 0.03 0.086 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.43 0.68 0.43 0.17 0.17 0.06 0.01 $0.20 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.09 0.57 0.17

812 202 23 469 1 571 385 16 250 228 469 540 218 5 519 8 643 1 894 5 933 5 417 702 6 298 1 240 36 404 83 330 199 525

0.1767 -0.61 -0.06 -0.11 -0.01 1.35 0.086 0.33 0.2491 0.11 0.45 0.06 -0.34 -0.27 0.29 0.000 -0.04 -0.1180 0.53 0.13

-94.34 -0.07 -1.05 -0.09 -5.00 0.48 0.23 0.21 1.08 0.09 0.29 2.47 -0.03 -0.07 0.35 33.33 -0.26 -0.08 1.14 50.55

2 013 847

MARKET TOTAL / OΛIKO AΓOPAΣ

Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ.

31/12/2011

-16.79 -1.50 -0.74 12.13 -4.98 -2.64 -2.25

0.06 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25

0.10 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25

-40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

-0.03 -36.72 -4.85 -5.79 -3.18 -2.80 0.31 -3.88 -9.00 0.40 1.44 -4.30 -6.18 -10.88 -0.61 -0.46 -2.62 -0.05 -10.30 -31.25

0.01 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.07 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60 6.41

0.01 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.07 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60 6.41

0.00 -

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield

Share

Share 2011 Cents

%

Results Cents

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο

% Change

since

0.00

2011

2010 AIAS CFL CAIR DHH TLM DOME EFR EXF KAR KNO KYTH LAS LHG OCT ROL SAFS SEAS SUP USB WOOD

P/E ratio 2011

27

-214 -1 353 232 -31 800 -335 -1 938 221 -3 507 -180 774 999 -2 378 -7 100 -50 257 93 -173 -50 598 -764 -6 534 -916 -155 728

`

0

0

-27 -1 856 -18 954 -9 100 -245 -701 35 -260 -180 87 612 -2 656 -11 700 -32 272 -328 -320 -16 501 -60 -6 248 -4 062 -104 736

146 226

74 000

295 000

-5 474 073

0.06

0.03

source: Eurivex Ltd. NAV: Net Asset Value

PAT:Profit After Tax

Bold: Final results

EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares.

P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Book Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price.

EMERGING MARKET (N.E.A.) FOCUS FINANCIAL SERVICES CONSTANTINOU BROS PROPERTIES CYPRUS LIMNI RESORTS & GOLF PHONE MARKETING S.A. ITTL TRADE TOURIST & LEISURE INT'L LIFE GENERAL INSURANCE SA ORCA INVESTMENT PLC P.C. SPLASH WATER PUBLIC CO. WARGAMING PUBLIC CO. ECHMI S.A. INVESTMENT CONSULTANTS TOTAL

CSE Code EXTE/EXTE ΚΩΑΜ/CBAM ΛΙΜΝΗ/LIMNI PHONE/PHONE ΙΤΤΛ/ITTL INLE ΟΡΚΑ/ORCA ΠΚΣΓ/PCSW ΓΚ/WG EXMI/ΕΗΜΙ

No. of Shares (000) 1690.00 1950.00 300000.00 1575.00 100000.00 8057.00 1200.00 35052.00 3400.00 297.00

Market Cap EUR (000) 11830.00 36855.00 300000.00 5512.50 75000.00 21834.47 14280.00 42062.40 3400.00 1401.84 512176.21

Latest price EUR 7.00 18.90 1.00 3.50 0.75 2.71 11.90 1.20 1.00 4.72

Nominal Value EUR 0.30 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.50 1.00 0.01 0.25 0.10 1.00

Listing Date 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 06/8/10 21/7/11 10/9/10 10/10/11 2/11/11 10/04/12

WARRANTS EUROPROFIT (WAR. 2005/2012) ALKIS HADJ. FROU-FROU (WAR. 2015) AMATHUS NAVIGATION (WAR.07-2013) UNIGROWTH INVESTMENTS (WAR.10/12) TOTAL EMERGING MARKET

Ignores weighted number of shares in circulation Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility No. of warrants (000) 893 24831 17606 2218

Mkt Cap (000) 9 497 176 319 1 000

Exercise Price euro cents

Expiry Date

41212 20-30 Jun 2001-2015 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13 1-15 Nov 2010 and 2012

8.67 173 20c or EUR 35c 29

30-10-2012 30-06-15 15-11-2013 15/11/2012

Latest Close 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01

GRTEA

1 040

Market Cap EUR 104 000 000

Kappasquare Ltd Nugreat Ltd Zetadynamic Ltd

KPSQ NGRT ZETA

17 000 23 000 9 000

1 700 000 2 300 000 900 000

100 100 100

30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012

96.900 52.580 90.070

Akcern Ltd

AKCN

2 001

200 100

100

9 May 2012

100.000

(N.E.A.) GreenTea SA

CSE Code No. of Bonds

Exercise Period

Latest price EUR 100 000

Listing Date 8 Nov 2011

Latest NAV N/A

DISCLAIMER: The information, comments, analyses and financial data published in this newspaper were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed and may change without notice.

Any of the information or opinions published herein should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication.

28

BACK PAGE

FINANCIAL MIRROR, May 23 - 29, 2012

Market is oversold, but signs say “sell” stock closed at $38.23 after falling as low as $38, its initial offer price.

The disappointing debut curbed investors’ appetite for other social media stocks. Hardest hit was Zynga Inc, which closed down 13.4% to $7.16 after falling as low as $6.40. The stock was temporarily halted twice due to sudden

WALL ST WEEK AHEAD Normally a big decline would set up Wall Street for a technical rebound. But that may not be the case this week, even after the market posted its worst weekly loss for the year and the S&P fell for six straight sessions.

With the corporate earnings season drawing to an end and recent U.S. economic data raising doubts about the pace of growth, the S&P 500, which is down 7.3% so far in May, could decline further this week as concerns about the financial health of Europe persist.

“What has changed in the world since April? We went from hearing a constant refrain that the world is awash in money and markets must go higher to hearing nobody wants to take any risk ... All in a week,” said Peter Cecchini, global head of institutional equity derivatives at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in New York.

The S&P 500 fell 4.3% for the week, its steepest weekly decline this year, and closed below 1,300 for the first time in four months.

The hotly awaited market debut of Facebook on Friday was marred by technology glitches on the Nasdaq in sending messages back to the brokerages that handled orders of Facebook Inc for individual, or “retail,” investors. Those problems rekindled fears about the market’s electronic trading system and caused some investors to stay away from equities.

Weighing on sentiment is a growing sense among investors that the euro zone debt crisis is nearing new heights, fueled by fears of the potential for a Greek euro exit and the deteriorating health of the Spanish banking system. Solid corporate earnings and upbeat U.S. economic indicators had fueled the rally in U.S. stocks, offsetting jitters over Europe. But

with earnings almost out of the way and data starting to disappoint, investors have shifted their focus back to headlines out of Europe.

Leaders of the Group of 8 major industrial economies met this weekend to try to tackle the financial crisis in Europe. U.S. President Barack Obama, the G8 host, has urged European leaders repeatedly to do more to stimulate growth, fearing contagion from the euro crisis that could hurt the U.S. economy and his chances of re-election in November.

“The market is extremely oversold. Nonetheless, all major indicators remain on sell signals,” Larry McMillan, president of options research firm McMillan Analysis Corp, said in a report on Friday.

“We expect a powerful but short-lived rally should be coming soon.

But at this point, barring some major shifts in our indicators, it may only be a rally in a larger down-trending market,” McMillian said.

THE FACEBOOK EFFECT Facebook, the No. 1 online social network, disappointed investors with a tepid market debut on Friday. Shares rose a scant 0.6% - nowhere near expectations for double-digit gains on the first trading day - and the day was marred by technical problems due to huge order volume. The

declines.

LinkedIn shares fell 5.7% to $99.02, and Groupon fell 6.7% to $11.58.

Zynga and Groupon, both of which went public late last year, are also trading below their IPO prices.

Despite the disappointing market debut and the weak performance of social media stocks, market participants are still optimistic about Facebook going forward.

“In any brand new area, social media in this case, most are going to be losers and only some are going to be winners. Yes, the IPO was disappointing, but Facebook is clearly the winner here and others aren’t,” said Randy Warren, chief investment strategist at Warren Financial Service.

This week’s economic data includes April’s existing home sales which are forecast at a 4.60 mln-unit annual, up from 4.48 mln in March. New homes sales figures are due on Wednesday.

April’s new home sales are also expected to post an increase, gaining about 7,000 units over a 328,000-unit annual rate in March.

Initial jobless claims and durable goods orders will be published on Thursday and consumer sentiment is due on Friday.

For the week, the Dow was off 3.5% and the Nasdaq was down 5.3%.

The costs of living dangerously GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEK AHEAD World leaders are increasingly alarmed at the prospect of financial problems in Europe sending shockwaves through the global economy when advanced countries have very limited resources to fight back.

Yesterday’s fear was Greece leaving the euro zone. Today it’s morphed into a broader concern that bad loans piled up in Spanish banks are eroding confidence in Europe’s financial system and could unravel the single currency.

What is unsettling them is new research from the International Monetary Fund, which has found that advanced and emerging economies have grown so deeply interlinked that a shock from one region could have effects worldwide that are even more profound than in 2008 when financial services firm Lehman Bros collapsed.

Global growth remains sluggish, debt levels in advanced economies high and their governments have very little if any fiscal or monetary policy room left to soften the blow should a fresh crisis erupt.

“The world is much, much more interconnected than at any time before,” said Zhu Min, the IMF’s deputy managing director, at a conference last week where he discussed the IMF study.

The global supply chain allows companies to source goods cheaply from a factory anywhere in the world. But it also means that a shock from one continent ricochets very rapidly into another, hundreds of thousands of miles away, through financial markets. Witness the Thai floods and Japan earthquake in 2011.

In 2003, this market linkage was 42%, but today the equity market linkage between the United States and Asia is 81%, Zhu said. Similarly, the impact of an external shock on industrial output has risen from 30% to 40% today, he said. “Anything happening in one direction can be amplified in

ways we never had before,” Zhu said.

No wonder that the G8 leaders of the world’s major economies meeting at Camp David this past weekend sought ways to boost growth and strengthen financial stability, particularly in Europe to prevent the euro zone crisis from spiralling out of control.

Within diplomatic circles, there is a deepening awareness that Spain matters, Greece is no island and that their economic collapse could have major consequences.

l

Contagion risks rise, markets more deeply interlinked than 2008-IMF “This is a systemic crisis, there are systemic implications from the Greek crisis for their economies. That had not been fully appreciated in the debate so far,” said Domenico Lombardi, a senior fellow at the Washingtonbased Brookings Institution and expert on international economic affairs.

European Union leaders will take an important step on Wednesday when they hold a dinner to discuss ways to stimulate economic growth in Europe, which stalled in the first quarter, while adhering to plans to lower their government debt loads.

If they were to embrace a bold growth plan - one that tears down rules and regulations in the service sector to boost competitiveness not only in Greece, Italy and Spain but also in France and Germany - it would mark a major breakthrough, Lombardi said. It would have a more lasting impact

on growth and jobs, far beyond the infrastructure projects that they have discussed so far, he said. “Right now we are heading toward a one-sided scenario where fiscal contraction leads to deflation and there is no room to be confident about any policy working in this scenario,” he said.

WATCHING THE NUMBERS A measure of the vulnerability of the world’s major economies will come on Thursday when Markit, a London-based financial information services company, gives an early look at manufacturing and service sector growth in the Big Three economies.

China’s manufacturing sector shrank in April, hurt by recession in its leading trade partner Europe. Weak bank lending figures and slowing industrial output are revealing the soft underside of Chinese growth, keeping investors edgy about its outlook.

Brown Brothers Harriman said the risks are tilted to the downside for China. “A fast rebound for China is unlikely in the context of sluggish U.S. growth, euro zone recession and a slowdown in the major emerging market economies,” it said in a client note.

In the euro zone, analysts on average expect that Markit’s flash Purchasing Managers Index for May will show that the contraction in manufacturing and services deepened slightly to 46.5 from 46.7 in April.

For the first time, Markit also will release a flash estimate for U.S. business activity. The ISM manufacturing index strengthened in April to 54.8 from 53.4 while services slowed to 54.6 from 58.9.

Nomura Securities economist Lewis Alexander said that so far U.S. economic data pointed to an economy that has remained resilient despite the pressures. “But rising concerns over Europe threaten the recovery through tighter financial conditions,” he said.

In other words, interconnected economies and markets mean that we live in a very small world.

Greeks not alone in bank savings exodus “It (Greek withdrawals) is not a huge number in percentage terms, but it is still a very worrying story. But deposit flight has been going on for two years. What we are seeing in the euro zone is a slow-motion bank run,” said Michael Riddell, fund manager at M&G International Sovereign Bond Fund.

ANALYSIS Greek savers may be gripped by a “great fear that could develop into panic” in the words of President Karolos Papoulias, but many Greeks shifted their money to safer havens in Britain, Switzerland, Germany and Nordic countries long ago.

Worries about a run on Greek banks has rattled Athens last week, after savers withdrew at least 700 mln euros on one day alone, according to minutes of Papoulias’s comments to political leaders posted on the presidency’s website.

It is not only Greeks who are worried about their savings. Data shows depositors have also taken flight from banks in Belgium, France and Italy. And on Thursday, Spain’s Bankia was reported to have seen more than 1 bln euros drained by its customers in the past week.

Greeks are afraid they could be hit by rapid devaluation if the country leaves the European single currency, while customers at Bankia have been rattled by the government’s takeover of the recently floated bank on May 9 and growing uncertainty about the final cost of Spain’s banking reforms.

In Greece, sources at two banks told Reuters that withdrawals on Tuesday had taken place at about the same rate as on Monday.

“The entire Greek banking system is in danger: the banks are now facing the worst of all outcomes, deposit flight,” said Arnaud Poutier, deputy CEO of IG Markets France.

That flight started at least two years ago, as the debt crisis grew more serious.

Greece’s banks have lost 72 bln euros in deposits since the start of 2010, or about 30%, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

Five of Greece’s top banks saw 37 bln euros taken out last year, includ-

SHIFTING DEPOSITS

ing 12 bln from EFG Eurobank and 8-9 bln apiece at National Bank of Greece, Piraeus and Alpha Bank.

In February, Evangelos Venizelos, finance minister at the time, said only 16 bln euros had gone abroad, with a third of that going to Britain.

Savers have shifted to property, gold and other banks, or stashed it privately.

In Greece, this slow-speed run on deposits has not caused panic. But that could quickly change if there is a sudden loss of confidence in the banks.

Savers lost faith in Britain’s Northern Rock overnight in September 2008, queueing for hours in the days that followed to take out their cash, despite a guarantee safeguarding most deposits. The British government ended up nationalising the bank.

Deposits shifted around Europe dramatically last year, analysis of data from more than 120 listed European banks show.

More than 120 bln euros was taken from two banks in Belgium alone, including an exodus of customer deposits from Dexia which had to be bailed out and restructured. KBC also saw a big outflow.

Some 90 bln euros was taken from France’s banks, including around 30 bln each from Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas. French banks were hit last year by their heavy exposure to Greece and concerns about their liquidity that forced them to accelerate plans to shrink.

Worries the euro zone crisis would spread also saw about 30 bln euros in deposits leave Italian banks, although inflows to BBVA helped limit the net outflow from Spain.

Cash flooded into Britain; more than 140 bln euros was deposited in four big banks alone. The UK benefits from its position outside the euro zone and its Asia-focused banks HSBC and Standard Chartered are seen as particular safe-havens.

Other banks to see big inflows included Barclays, Germany’s Deutsche Bank, Switzerland’s Credit Suisse and UBS and Russia’s Sberbank and VTB.