Bay Area Houston Economic Partnership
Presented at Business Development Reception November 7, 2018
BAHEP Region ď Ż Represented by 17 Zip Codes
Population Trend – 1990 to 2018 477,733
526,685
544,274
406,765 329,091
Yearly average of 7,685 new residents each year from 1990 to 2018. 3.0% average annual growth 7,097 average each year in the 2000’s.
8,318 average each year in the 2010’s
1990
2000
2010
2016
2018
Households by Income – Bay Area 2000 Census Count Share 146,519
2018 Estimate Count Share 192,816
Change Count % Change 46,297 31.6%
Less than $15,000
15,982
10.9%
13,520
7.0%
-2,462
-15.4%
$15,000 to $24,999
14,557
9.9%
15,362
8.0%
805
5.5%
$25,000 to $34,999
17,843
12.2%
15,412
8.0%
-2,431
-13.6%
$35,000 to $49,999
23,774
16.2%
22,922
11.9%
-852
-3.6%
$50,000 to $74,999
31,526
21.5%
31,480
16.3%
-46
-0.1%
$75,000 to $99,999
19,653
13.4%
24,024
12.5%
4,371
22.2%
$100,000 to $149,999
16,029
10.9%
33,637
17.5%
17,608
109.9%
$150,000 to $249,999
5,692
3.9%
25,210
13.1%
19,518
342.9%
$250,000 to $499,999
1,189
0.8%
7,992
4.1%
6,803
572.2%
$500,000 or more Average Household Income
273 $62,479
0.2%
Household Income Groups - Total Households
3,258 1.7% $100,909
2,985 1,093.4% $38,430 61.5%
Source: US Bureau of the Census 2000, Nielsen/Claritas 2018 estimates – PCensus for Arcview
Labor Force & Occupations – Bay Area 2000 Census Count Share Occupation
Employed Population Age 16+
Architect/Engineer Arts/Entertainment/Sports Building Grounds Maintenance Business/Financial Operations Community/Social Services Computer/Mathematical Construction/Extraction Education/Training/Library Farm/Fish/Forestry Food Preparation/Serving Health Practitioner/Technician Healthcare Support Maintenance and Repair Legal Life/Physical/Social Science Management (including farmers/farm managers) Office/Administration Support Production Protective Services Sales/Related Personal Care/Services Transportation/Moving
193,722 10,346 2,832 4,626 8,596 2,019 6,218 13,917 11,534 381 8,106 8,500 2,227 9,295 1,657 2,750 18,477 28,561 14,258 3,188 22,400 4,193 9,640
2018 Estimate Count Share
267,804 5.3% 1.5% 2.4% 4.4% 1.0% 3.2% 7.2% 6.0% 0.2% 4.2% 4.4% 1.2% 4.8% 0.9% 1.4% 9.5% 14.7% 7.4% 1.7% 11.6% 2.2% 5.0%
9,428 3,482 8,840 13,082 2,589 7,310 20,497 17,105 457 15,417 15,785 4,477 9,760 2,289 2,474 28,188 31,380 17,931 5,842 29,107 6,866 15,499
3.5% 1.3% 3.3% 4.9% 1.0% 2.7% 7.7% 6.4% 0.2% 5.8% 5.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 10.5% 11.7% 6.7% 2.2% 10.9% 2.6% 5.8%
Change Count % Change
74,082
38.2%
-918 650 4,214 4,486 570 1092 6,580 5,571 76 7,311 7,285 2,250 465 632 -276 9,711 2819 3,673 2,654 6,707 2,673 5,859
-8.9% 23.0% 91.1% 52.2% 28.2% 17.6% 47.3% 48.3% 19.9% 90.2% 85.7% 101.0% 5.0% 38.1% -10.0% 52.6% 9.9% 25.8% 83.2% 29.9% 63.7% 60.8%
Source: US Bureau of the Census 2000, Nielsen/Claritas 2018 estimates – PCensus for Arcview
Engineers & Architects Roughly one out of ten Houston Area Engineers & Architects live in the Bay Area Bay Area Engineers and Architects = 9,428 3.5% of the labor force Houston MSA Engineers and Architects = 100,416 3.0% of the labor force Source: Nielsen/Claritas 2018 estimates – PCensus for Arcview
Census Employment Trend– 2004 to 2016 164,617 158,235 148,140 150,181
184,304 175,183177,694 172,322 169,093 169,069
193,015 191,475 184,618
3,611 new jobs each year from 2004 to 2016. 2.4% average annual growth
Source: US Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, 2016, Does not include government.
Single-Family Housing Market Existing S.F. Home Sales
Total S.F. Homes 2018 = 139,264 units
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total S.F Homes before 1990 = 75,347 units
Median Price Trend
Average Price Trend
Houston MSA
BAHEP
Source: Houston Association of Realtors, Nielsen/Claritas 2018 estimates – PCensus for Arcview
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
Compared to Houston Overall
$240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
$275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000
New Single-Family Housing New S.F. Home Starts and Closings Total New S.F. Homes built 2008 to 2017 = 15,759 Total New S.F. Homes sold 2008 to 2017 = 16,188
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Starts
Closings
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0 2006
Average 1,575 built annually from 2008-2017
Apartment Market Annual Apartment Construction, Units
Apartment Occupancy Trend
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
Total Apartments before 1990 = 39,556 units in 201 properties
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1991
Total Apartments 2016 = 55,705 units in 272 Properties
Apartment Rent Trend, $/SF per month
All Source: Enriched Data, Apartment Database
Class A
2014
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
$1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 1999
94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80%
Office Market
Office Occupancy Trend
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
Office space before 1990 = 13.21 million square feet
500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1991
Total Office Space, 2018 = 16.35 million square feet
Annual Office Construction, Square Feet
Office Rent Trend
90%
$19.00
85%
$18.00
80%
$17.00
75%
$16.00
70%
$15.00
Source: Enriched Data, Office Database
3Q 2005 3Q 2006 3Q 2007 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 3Q 2015 3Q 2016 3Q 2017 3Q 2018
$20.00
2Q 2005 2Q 2006 2Q 2007 2Q 2008 2Q 2009 2Q 2010 2Q 2011 2Q 2012 2Q 2013 2Q 2014 2Q 2015 2Q 2016 2Q 2017 2Q 2018
95%
Retail Market Total Retail Space, 2018 = 23.57 million square feet Retail space before 1990 = 11.69 million square feet
Annual Retail Construction, Square Feet 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
Retail Occupancy Trend
Retail Rent Trend
96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82%
$2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 3Q 2005 3Q 2006 3Q 2007 3Q 2008 3Q 2009 3Q 2010 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 3Q 2015 3Q 2016 3Q 2017 3Q 2018
2Q 2005 2Q 2006 2Q 2007 2Q 2008 2Q 2009 2Q 2010 2Q 2011 2Q 2012 2Q 2013 2Q 2014 2Q 2015 2Q 2016 2Q 2017 2Q 2018
$1.00
Source: Enriched Data, Shopping Centers Database, includes only centers with more than 10,000 square feet
Retail Sales – BAHEP Cities Total Retail Sales, Millions $ $5,000 $4,500 $4,000
Drop in Total Sales 2008 to 2010 = -8.9% Increase in Total Sales 2010 to 2013 = 35.3%
$3,500
Increase in Total Sales 2002 to 2017 = 95.1% Taxable Sales steady as a share of Total – 50%-55%
$3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500
$1,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Retail Sales Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Taxable Retail Sales
Population Projection – 1990-2060 Population in thousands
478 409 329
513 528
559
595
631
688 663 673
706 716
8,010 new residents each year from 1990 to 2010. 6,946 average each year in the 00’s 6,128 average each year 2010 to 2040 2,690 average each year 2040 to 2060
Jobs Projection – 1990-2060 345 325
Jobs in thousands
305 265
174 140
194 200
213
229
247
276
3,360 new jobs each year from 2000 to 2010.
3,035 average each year 2010 to 2040 4,024 average each year 2040 to 2060
Questions/Comments
ď Ż
1001 South Dairy Ashford Street Suite 450 Charlie Savino Houston, TX 77077 www.cdsmr.com Steve Spillette 281-582-0847 sspillette@cdsmr.com Ty Jacobsen 281-582-0864 tjacobsen@cdsmr.com