The Jewish Home | OCTOBER 29, 2015
THE BALTIMORE JEWISH HOME
FEBRUARY 10, 2022
48
Russian support for China’s stance that Taiwan is an “inalienable part of China” and Moscow’s opposition to any form of independence for the Island. China also joined Russia in calling for an end to “NATO enlargement” and supported its demand for security guarantees from the West, specifically citing Ukraine. Does Russia have specific interests in Ukraine relating to territorial security and national sovereignty? Sure. But the 100,000 Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian border are not there because of those interests alone. Ukraine is just the most recent move by Russia in a much larger global plan. The bigger context in which the Ukraine crisis is nested has certainly not been lost on Western leaders. France’s Emmanuel Macron recently took upon himself the role of shuttle-diplomat in an effort to stave off a Ukrainian war. The French leader was being very honest when he told reporters on February 7 th that the standoff had little to do with Ukraine per se. “The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine, but to clarify the rules of
how Moscow lives with NATO and Europe.” Spot on Emmanuel. Whether or not the Ukraine situation turns into a hot war, the longterm question is this: what will the European/American response be to this troublesome Sino-Russian reconciliation? Based on what we know now, we can expect to see some specific developments over the next several months. First is an increase in Western military cooperation in the Pacific. Last year, the AUKUS trilateral security pact involving Australia, the U.S., and Britain, was initiated by Australian leaders. While there was some feuding among Western powers about the details of the pact (France and New Zealand, for instance, made a fuss over not being included), AUKUS is a natural extension of Western Europe, America, and their allies taking a more assertive stance in the region. Last year, Britain, Germany, and France sent naval patrols through contested waters in the South China Sea, and all have committed to conduct more operations in the region. At this moment,
Washington and Japan are planning military exercises in the Ryukyu Islands area while Tokyo remains in the midst of its largest naval expansion project since World War II. Other U.S.-allied countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia are also bolstering their naval forces. Second: Russian and Chinese collaboration in Central Asia will most likely require some re-engagement on the part of the U.S. Over the past month, several outlets have reported on overtures being made by the State Department to Taliban leaders. According to some, U.S. diplomats have gone so far as to offer their former enemies intelligence support to help defeat Afghan-based jihadists. While these reports remain unconfirmed, in light of current geopolitical reality, they should certainly not be dismissed out of hand. In addition to the military front, there will be a substantial increase in infrastructure investment to counter China’s expansion in Asia. Two goals currently being tackled by the U.S. and Japan are the international commercial routes known as the NorthSouth Transit Corridor (NSTC) and
Russia and China’s Strategic Partnership unites them against the West
the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR), the latter being recognized as a direct competitor to China’s BRI. Is Ukraine simply a diversion to draw away the West’s attention and resources? Whatever it is, the crisis is only marking the beginning of some highly impactful trends that will shape international affairs for the foreseeable future.
A Healing Laugh B A LT I M O R E
B A LT I M O R E
W W W.T H E B J H . C O M
Using Humor to Cope with Stress
49
