Is Israel Stuck? A look into the Era of Endless Elections

Is Israel Stuck?

A Look into the Era of Endless Elections

By Aron White

In the classic movie Groundhog Day, Phil Connors gets stuck in a time loop where he keeps waking up to repeat the same day again and again. In Israel, it seems Election Day is becoming the national equivalent of that; Israelis will wake up this Tuesday to vote for the Knesset for the fifth time since 2019. To put that into perspective, five presidential elections ago, Americans were choosing between George Bush and John Kerry and the current high school seniors were being born. Israel’s political system has confused outsiders for many years, but even by Israel’s standards, what is happening is unprecedented.

To understand the 2022 election, we have to understand how we got here and answer some big picture, systemic questions: Why are we having elections again? What is going wrong in Israel’s political system? Is there any chance that this election will change things?

Why Can’t Israeli Elections Be More Like the U.S.?

To begin understanding what is going on in Israel, it is helpful to compare elections in Israel to elections in the U.S.

In America, elections are straightforward. There are two main parties, Republicans and Democrats. There are elections at fixed, predictable times. We go and vote, someone wins, and then we repeat it in a few years’ time. So why isn’t Israel’s system like this?

Actually, on paper, Israel’s system should be simpler and require fewer elections than in the U.S. In the United States, there are separate elections for the legislature – the Senate and Congress who make the laws – and the executive, the president who runs the country. In 2022, Americans are voting for senators and congressman, and in 2024, Americans will vote in a different election for the President.

In Israel, there is a parliament rather than a president, so things work differently. Israelis only vote for the legislature, the Knesset, and whichever party wins that election also gets to form the government. If Israel would vote, and the Likud party would win 65 out of the 120 Knesset seats, the Likud party would control the legislature, the Knesset, and would get to form the next government, picking who will be the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and all other government positions. Israel has just one election, and whoever wins the vote for the Knesset automatically gets to make the government as well.

In theory, this is simple, but in practice it has always been more complicated. The reason for this is actually remarkable; in 74 years of history and 24 elections, no party in Israeli history has ever won a majority of seats in the Knesset. From the very first election, there have always been lots of parties running in Israel, rather than just a two-party system, and with so many parties running, no one is able to get an absolutely majority of over 60 seats. Ben Gurion’s Mapai party never won more than 50 seats, and the highest Bibi Netanyahu has won leading the Likud party is 36 seats. The closest anyone ever got to a majority was the Maarach lead by Golda Meir who won 56 seats in 1969.

Why is it like this? Why are there usually over ten parties represented in the Knesset, rather than just the two in the U.S. Senate and Congress?

There is a sociological answer to this question: two Jews, three opinions. Israel has so many different groupings of people – right-wing and left-wing, Jews and Arabs, religious and secular, Ashkenazi and Sephardi, Russian and Ethiopian, Dati Leumi and Chareidi – that all of these groups would be hard to represent in just two parties. However, while this is true, it is not sufficient as a complete explanation. The United States is a country of hundreds of millions of people, with different ethnicities, religions, races, political leanings and more, yet still only has two parties.

The deeper reason for why Israel has multiple parties is because of how voting works in each country. In the U.S., each election is actually 50 mini elections as each state votes separately. Let’s suppose I created a new political party, and won 10% of the vote across America, winning 10% in every single state. I would have amassed millions of votes but get absolutely nothing from it – I would have lost in every state, so I would end up with no senators, congressmen or electoral college votes. When there is a system like this, which is known as First Past the Post, it usually leads to a two-party system, as it’s very hard for a small party to break in and get meaningful results.

In Israel, when there is an election, there is one election for the whole country. If my party would win 10% of the vote, it would win 10% of the seats in the Knesset. When there is a system like Israel’s, which is known as Proportional Representation, it makes it easier for small parties to compete, leading to multiple parties winning seats. (In political science, this effect of voting systems on the number of parties is called Duverger’s Law.) Israel is a country of almost 10 million people, and you just need 140,000 votes or so in order to get into the Knesset, making it much easier for small and new parties to reach the Knesset. Since 1948, countless small parties have formed, grown, shrunk, and disappeared, and with very low barriers to entry, this process will continue. Israelis choose between numerous parties that get into the Knesset, and with the pie split between so many players, it is no wonder that no party has ever managed to win a majority of the seats.

When No One Wins

So what happens when no party wins 61 seats in the

Knesset? If the largest party only wins 35 seats, who becomes prime minister and forms the government? In order to form a government, a group of parties have to join together to form a coalition – this is a group of different political parties from the Knesset who have a combination of a majority of seats who sign agreements to form a government together.

To take an example from a few years ago: In the 2015 Israeli election, ten parties won seats in the Knesset. Because Likud led by Bibi Netanyahu had the most seats with 30, President Ruvi Rivlin tasked Bibi Netanyahu with trying to form a coalition. He negotiated with different parties and came up with the following coalition: Likud joined with Kulanu (a party focused mainly on economics), Jewish Home (Religious Zionists), United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi Charedim) and Shas (Sephardi Charedim) to form a coalition. Likud had 30 seats in Knesset, Kulanu had 10, Jewish Home 8, Shas had 7, and United Torah Judaism 6, so in total the coalition had 61 seats, a majority of the 120 in Knesset, allowing them to form a government together. The government positions were split up between these parties as part of the coalition agreements – Bibi Netanyahu of Likud was the Prime Minister, Aryeh Deri of Shas was the Minister for the Economy, Ayelet Shaked of Bayit Yehudi was the Justice Minister, etc. Naturally, the process of building a coalition takes a while, as all the parties want to feel they are getting their fair share. The above coalition in 2015 took around two months to form, but ultimately the agreements were signed, the government was confirmed by the Knesset, and the country moved on.

This is the basic dynamic of how a government is formed in Israel – no one wins the election outright and parties have to negotiate who will join together to form a coalition government. This system is complicated, it looks very different from the system in America, but ultimately it has worked for Israel – until 2019.

2019: From Complicated to Dysfunctional

In April of 2019, Israel went to elections for the 21st time. After the results came in, the parties began the usual cycle of trying to join together to form a coalition but were unsuccessful; there was no grouping of parties who could agree to join together to be a coalition. Because of this, new elections were called to try again, but the same thing happened – the parties after the election couldn’t agree to form a coalition. Elections were called for a third time, and in May 2020 a weak coalition formed led by Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, but it only lasted six months. Because they couldn’t pass a budget, new elections were called, Israel’s fourth in two years, and again these did not seem to lead to a coalition. However, a government was formed, but in the most surprising of ways: Naftali Bennett joined with Yair Lapid’s coalition of the center, left and Arabs, even though he had explicitly told voters he wouldn’t do that. He had “crossed the aisle,” a right-wing party joining with the center and left, in a move he claimed was to save Israel from the endless cycle of elections.

The Bennett government lasted for a year, but it gradually started to weaken, with members of Bennett’s own party jumping ship and refusing to vote in line with the coalition. As the situation became untenable, new elections were called, and so on Tuesday Israel will vote for the fifth election in this never-ending chapter.

Why is it that until 2019, the coalition system, even if it was messy, still worked, but since 2019 it hasn’t seemed to produce a stable government? There are two main causes for this.

Firstly, the great weakness of Israel’s system is that nothing ensures that a coalition will be able to be formed. If a party wins a majority, then it automatically makes a government itself. Once you are dealing with

If too many parties have too many red lines, then the system can simply become dysfunctional.

multiple parties having to work together, there is nothing that ensures there will be enough parties willing to work together to form a government. Theoretically, if every party was unwilling to negotiate anything, and refused on principle to work with any party that was different than itself, then Israel would be stuck from the get-go. This is an extreme scenario that doesn’t happen, but it serves to illustrate the weakness – Israel relies on enough parties making enough compromises with each other to be able to form a majority and a government. Each party has their principles, items they are willing to negotiate on, and features that are red lines it won’t cross. If too many parties have too many red lines, then the system can simply become dysfunctional.

Over the past few decades, a coalition formed between secular right-wing parties and the religious parties that came to be seen as a natural partnership. Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, Mafdal/Bayit Yehudi and United Torah Judaism all agreed to work together, and this became a natural coalition that often had a majority. This camp has come to be known by a number of names in Israel like the right-wing bloc, the nationalist camp, or the believing camp, based on the fact that most of its voters are either religious or traditional. From when Bibi Netanyahu came back as Prime Minister in 2009, this coalition has been his core support. However, this right-wing coalition split in 2019 when Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, abruptly left the coalition. At first, he left because he felt Netanyahu was too weak in his response to Hamas, he then wouldn’t join the coalition because he wouldn’t compromise with chareidim about army service for yeshiva students, and now he says he won’t join any government led by Netanyahu, accusing Bibi of putting his own interest above that of the country. Other right-wing figures such as Gideon Saar also joined this contention of being unwilling to join with Netanyahu because Netanyahu is on trial. And so, the right-wing camp has essentially split into two parts that wouldn’t work with each other, crushing the right-wing coalition that had existed.

This issue still exists today –Leiberman, Saar, and other right-wing figures won’t sit in a government led by Netanyahu. Along with the religious, social, and ethnic divides that already split the parties, now there is the question of “Yes Bibi” or “No Bibi.” This created more splits, making it harder for a coalition of parties to form a government.

Another factor that has caused the instability was recently noted by Haviv Rettig Gur of the Times of Israel. Israel made a change to its voting system in 2014 that has possibly had unintended consequences. There is a minimum threshold of votes a party needs to receive to get into the Knesset, a rule that many countries around the world have. This basically discourages small parties from running. If you didn’t have this, you could theoretically have loads of tiny parties, each with one seat in the Knesset which just becomes impossible to manage. Until 2014, a party had to get 2% of the vote to get into the Knesset, but in 2014, this threshold was raised to 3.25%. In the election in March 2019, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked led a party called HaYamin HeChadash who received...3.24% of the votes, 1,500 votes under the threshold. If they had gotten 1,500 more votes, they would have passed the threshold to enter Knesset, would have had about four seats, and Netanyahu would have had a coalition and formed a government. Because they just missed the threshold, Israel had to go to another election, and we are where we are today. Raising the threshold was meant to give Israel more stability, but it has actually contributed to more electoral chaos.

What Will Happen Next Week?

On Tuesday, Israeli voters will choose their parties, after which the big question will be: can a coalition be formed? There are a few possible coalitions that theo-

retically could form: a right-wing coalition, a left-wing coalition, or something in the middle. 1. A right-wing government - The Likud, Religious Zionist, Shas, and United Torah Judaism could theoretically get 61 seats and form a coalition together. Whether they will get this number will come down to fine margins – at the moment, some polls say they will get 59 seats, some say 61, so it is very close, but there certainly is a realistic possibility of them forming a coalition.

Two things could help the right-wing coalition bounce over the threshold of 61. If the Bayit Yehudi party, another Religious Zionist party led by Ayelet Shaked, could get into the Knesset with four seats, they could join this coalition, helping it reach 61 seats. The issue there is that Bayit Yehudi is currently polling at 1.9% of the vote at the time of this writing and would need to pass the threshold of 3.25% in order to get into the Knesset.

Another possibility that could help the right-wing coalition is if one or more of the left parties don’t pass the threshold. In some polls, no less than four left-wing parties are above the threshold but are very close to the margins. If one or two of Labor, Meretz, Ra’am or Chadash-Ta’al don’t pass the threshold, then that will translate into more seats for the other parties, which could help the right-wing parties to reach the desired 61 seats. 2. A left-wing government - Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Benny Gantz’s Machane Mamlachti, Labor, Meretz, and the Arab parties could theoretically get over 61 seats and form a government, but this seems unlikely. At the moment, they are polling at around 56 seats, and even if they would get 61 seats, it is not clear whether the Arab parties would be invited into this coalition. Ra’am, one of the Arab parties, was in the most recent coalition so it could be invited back, but Chadash-Ta’al are so extreme that it is hard to imagine a government with them – some of their Members of Knesset openly celebrate Palestinian murderers, support BDS, and celebrate violence against Israeli Jews. 3. Something in the middle – If, once again, there is no right-wing or left-wing coalition formed, something unexpected could happen to form some hybrid government. This is unlikely but is what happened last time – Naftali Bennett decided to break his campaign promises and joined a Lapid-led coalition in order to form a government. For this to happen, someone would have to cross one of their red lines. Would Bibi go back on his word and join a government with Benny Gantz? Could Shas or UTJ decide that they will join with the left-wing parties to become part of their coalition? Could Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman revoke their promises and join a coalition with all the Arab parties or the chareidim? Another possible route to a coalition would be if Bibi Netanyahu stepped down as the leader of Likud. Avigdor Lieberman, and even potentially some center and left-wing parties, might join in a coalition with Likud, but not if it is led by Bibi. Were Bibi to step aside, there could be a coalition; however, the Likud voters are voting for Bibi and giving him significant support, and since he claims he is innocent in his trial, he will see stepping down as a capitulation to those who think he is guilty, so is unlikely to do so. Nonetheless, there are reports that some figures even within his own party would want this to happen so the country can move forward.

Along with the religious, social, and ethnic divides that already split the parties, now there is the question of “Yes Bibi” or “No Bibi.”

All of the above are unlikely scenarios, but few people predicted that after the last election Bennett would join the center and left-wing to form a coalition. At a time of political chaos, never say never.

If the last five elections have taught us anything, it’s that we are in unchartered territory, so nothing can be ruled out.

What is the Impact of the Instability?

Israeli politics has become more unstable since 2019, and it is unclear whether this latest election will do anything to help stem the chaos. The biggest losers of this situation are actually the Israeli public. Constantly being in election cycles is tiring and frustrating for the country, and the deadlock has delayed important projects, even ones that have a complete consensus. A great example is the Tel Aviv Metro, one of the biggest infrastructure projects Israel has ever undertaken. Over 4 million people live in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area, and the area is the economic heart of Israel. Even though the first light rail lines will (hopefully!) open next year, in the long-term that won’t be enough, and the Tel Aviv region needs a metro system. The planning for this was started by the Likud party in 2015, and plans have been drawn up, budgets have been proposed, and architects assigned. For such a massive project (the current cost is $50 billion), a law needs to be passed through the Knesset to be able to properly regulate numerous aspects of this complex project. Before the Knesset disbanded in May, the Bennett-Lapid government tried to get this law passed in the Knesset, but the Likud wouldn’t vote for it as it would give Lapid and Bennett political points for moving the metro forward – even though the Likud are the ones who initially started this process! There is no debate between right and left, Jew and Arab, religious and secular about the need for the metro system, but the only reason it hasn’t moved forward is the political deadlock.

Another infrastructure project Israel really needs is a new airport. Ben Gurion has over 20 million passengers passing through a year and is reaching full capacity. This has been discussed in Israel for years, and one of the strongest candidates is an airfield near Haifa called Ramat David. Mysteriously, a few weeks ago, Benny Gantz reversed the Ministry of Defense position on this and vetoed that location. One of the most plausible explanations for this is that the residents of the Emek Yizrael area near Ramat David are potential voters for Gantz, and they are against the airport plans; Gantz didn’t want to approve something that residents wouldn’t like a few months before the election. The wait for Israel’s new airport will go on for months and years more, possibly just because of local party interests in yet another election.

Where is Israel Headed?

One good thing about Israel’s elections is that they give a very accurate view of what Israelis are thinking and feeling. Even small groups can be represented by their own party, there are very few wasted votes, so what happens in the Knesset is a pretty good reflection of Israeli society. If the Knesset is deadlocked between all the different parties, it represents that Israeli society is caught between these different groups, all wrestling for power and influence, but none able to fully achieve that.

Taking a step back and looking at Israel’s history, the country has shifted from being dominated by a secular-socialist majority, to one in which there are lots of interest groups, none of whom are able to dominate and govern the overall tone of the country. No party is getting much more than a quarter of the seats in the Knesset.

What will this mean for the future of Israel as it prepares to celebrate its 75th anniversary? Will it be some fine margin that swings the balance of political power, or will a new group or political movement form that will be able to change the deadlock? Perhaps on Tuesday we will get some answers, or perhaps we will have to continue to work towards more tenable, stable solutions.