Luxury Property Report | Spring 2023

COHEN

HOMES & ESTATES

SPRING 2023

SHERWOOD HOMES & RICHARD WENGLE ARCHITECTURAL MASTERPIECE ON RAVINE | Offered at $8,350,000

Market Commentary by Barry Cohen

Luxury buyers have returned to the GTA’s housing market … will listings follow?

After a volatile 2022, Toronto’s luxury housing segment has finally found its groove.

Sidelined buyers returned to the market in early spring, encouraged by lower fixed mortgage rates and overall market stability. New listings—while still down significantly yearover-year – showed some modest signs of improvement in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), edging up to 11,364 between March and April. While challenges still exist for home buyers in terms of inventory (more than 18,000 properties were listed for sale this time last year), upward pressure on pricing is expected to draw some sellers into the market in the months ahead.

Despite the uptick in demand, sales in the Greater Toronto Area in the first four months of 2023 paled in comparison to year-ago levels. Fourteen hundred and seventy-five properties changed hands over the $2 million price point, down from a peak level of 3,621 recorded between January and April of 2022. Average price over $3 million held relatively steady, sitting at $3,999,506 year-to-date 2023, down just six per cent from $4,252,706 reported during the same period in 2022.

Luxury Freehold/Condominium Sales in the Greater Toronto Area

Source: Barry Cohen Homes, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Market Watch

BARRY COHEN President & Broker

Further recovery is expected for the GTA housing market in the coming months, although supply issues will likely linger. New listings have edged upward month-over-month, but they remain well off year-ago levels. To illustrate, there are close to 1,100 homes listed for sale between $2 million and $2.999 million in the GTA – and drilling down deeper – only 356 are available in the 416-area code. Between $3 and $4.999 million, 457 homes are listed for sale in the GTA, while only 172 are listed in Toronto proper. Far greater selection is typical for this time of the year and many of the properties currently listed for sale have been on the market for an extended period.

Relatively healthy economic fundamentals should also support homebuying activity moving forward. Real GDP rose 0.5 per cent in January, registering a further increase of 0.1 per cent in February, according to Statistics Canada. Employment levels continue to be tight, with unemployment hovering at five per cent. Inflation appears to be falling, sitting at 4.3 per cent in March, down from 5.2 per cent one month earlier. Fixed rate mortgages have been dropping, with some lenders now offering five-year, and in some instances, three and four-year terms under five per cent. The Bank of Canada is expected to continue it’s pause on interest rate hikes in the next meeting. Against this backdrop, residential housing markets across the country should perform relatively well.

While stock market performance has been unstable as of late, the failure of several US banks in March, April and May sent shockwaves through global financial communities. Not surprisingly, when banks fail, as they did in 2008 and 2009, investors tend to turn their attention to housing markets and the security of a tangible asset. We suspect that 2023 will be no different.

While luxury sales were down year-over-year, the number of homes that changed hands over $3 million this year continues to climb month over month suggesting that the activity that has occurred in the lower end of the market, is working its way to the luxury price points. This point is further reinforced in the ultra high-end, with half of the year’s sales over $7.5 million occuring in just the last 30 days. There is a lot confusion and mixed messaging going on, with pundits seemingly two months behind. Thankfully I’ve been through a transitioning market like this before and am excited for what the year ahead will bring. If you’d like to chat about a home buying or selling strategy or would like to get on our exclusive list to be notified of what we will be listing in the near future, please feel free to reach out to us at any time at 416-223-1818. Hope you enjoy the great weather!

Best,

Barry Cohen

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Comparison of aggregate brand mentions across global media publications, digital forums, and social media. Q3 2021- Q3 2022.

INDUSTRY SHARE OF VOICE

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Source: Meltwater Media Monitoring

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ESTATES

Inside Some Of Our Most Luxurious Estates

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29 SWANSDOWN DRIVE Offered at $8,580,000

ICONIC BRIDLE PATH ESTATE

61 THE BRIDLE PATH Offered at $16,880,000

LAWRENCE PARK GEORGIAN

185 DAWLISH AVENUE Offered at $11,350,000

The Greater Toronto Area’s Top Luxury Markets

Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills, St. Andrews-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow (C12)

Homebuying activity is heating up in the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s C12 district (consisting of the Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills and St. Andrew-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow), where luxury purchasers will find the greatest selection of high-end homes and estates available for sale. Forty-one properties have sold in the first four months of 2023 in the area, with most sales occurring in March and April.

Average price over $2 million hovered at $5,648,033 in the Bridle Path–Sunnybrook-York Mills pocket between January and April of 2023, falling eight per cent short of the $6,152,438 reported during the same period in 2022. Forty-eight homes are currently listed for sale, ranging in price from $2.6 million to two at almost $29 million.

Forty properties are also available for sale in St. Andrew-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow, where prices start at $2.2 million and climb to almost $30 million. Values have held relatively steady year-over-year as well, with the average price sitting at just under $3.9 million in 2023.

Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills and St. Andrew-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow, well-known for spacious homes on well-treed and generous lot sizes, continue to attract affluent buyers. In fact, five of the 10 properties that changed hands over the $7.5 million price point in the GTA to-date have occurred in the C12 district. The average days on market for a property in C12 sat at 30 in April.

GATED

FIFESHIRE ESTATE Offered at $7,880,000

Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills

Average Sold Price 2023 $5,648,033

Average Sold Price 2022 $6,152,438 -8% Year-over-year

St.

Hollow

Average Sold Price 2023 $3,868,535

Forest Hill South, Humewood-Cedarvale (C03)

Tight inventory levels prevailed in both HumewoodCedarvale and Forest Hill South during the first four months of the year, hampering sales activity in TRREB’s C03 district. Just three properties are currently listed for sale over $2 million in Humewood, while selection is scarce over the $5 million price point in Forest Hill, with just 10 homes available.

To date, ten homes have sold in Forest Hill South, with all but three sales occurring under the $4 million price point. Thirty-three properties are currently listed for sale. In Humewood-Cedarvale, ten properties moved between January and April, with just three currently available for sale.

While average price over the $2 million price point is down in both markets year-over-year, there has been upward pressure on pricing for freehold properties throughout the GTA. New listings that are well priced tend to move quickly in Forest Hill South and Cedarvale-Humewood, with some selling in multiple offer situations. Properties that are overpriced, however, continue to stagnate in today’s competitive environment.

Forest Hill South

FOREST HILL ENGLISH MANOR Offered at $8,995,000

| 55 Colin Avenue

Rosedale, Moore Park (C09)

While demand for luxury properties within Rosedale, Moore Park remains strong, a limited number of homes listed for sale across all price points has had a substantial impact on sales in the area. Twenty-four properties changed hands in the first four months of the year, down from 36 during the same period in 2022. Nearly half of those properties moved in multiple offer situations in 2023, with one selling for substantially more than asking price.

Just 21 properties are currently listed for sale in the area, with values ranging from $2.2 million to close to $11.9 million. Sellers are reluctant to sell their properties, given softer prices, that, in large part reflect the 11 sales between $2 million and $2.9 million to date. Upward pressure on pricing has been noted in recent months, but average price remains six per cent off year-ago levels.

Luxury purchasers will continue to be drawn to the Rosedale, Moore Park area in the coming months. While the advent of the traditional spring market is expected to bring new listings to the market, quantity and quality will dictate sales activity in this hot pocket.

Rosedale, Moore Park

January 1st - April 30st, 2023 vs. same period in 2022

Average Sold Price 2023 $3,548,202

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,763,827

-6% Year-over-year

SOLD | 732/734 Avenue Road

SOLD | 300 Vesta Drive Represented the buyer

ROSEDALE LANDMARK ESTATE Offered at $11,895,000

FULLY RENOVATED IN FOREST HILL Offered at $7,995,000

Yonge-St. Clair, Casa Loma, Annex (C02)

While fewer homes were sold in the Yonge-St. Clair, Casa Loma, and Annex neighbourhoods in the first quarter of 2023, momentum appears to be on the upswing heading into the spring market, with most sales occurring at the entry-level to luxury. Of the 32 properties sold in TRREB’s C02 district, 72 per cent occurred between $2 million and $3 million.

Downsizing purchasers and young professionals make up the lion’s share of purchasers, with many seeking properties in close proximity to the vibrant core areas, along Yonge St., Bloor St., and St. Clair Ave. By far the greatest demand this year existed in the Annex, where 10 sales occurred over the $2 million price point, followed by Casa Loma and Yonge-St. Clair at five and two sales respectively.

Tight inventory issues were apparent in Casa Loma and Yonge-St. Clair moving into the strong spring market. Thirteen properties were listed for sale in the Yonge-St. Clair area, while 14 were available in the Casa Loma area, with prices ranging from $2 million to $25 million. Twenty-eight properties were available for sale in the Annex.

Although the number of homes listed for sale is expected to climb in the Annex, Casa Loma, and Yonge-St. Clair in conjunction with the traditional spring market, conditions should remain tight throughout the second quarter. Days on market, at eight in C02, were the lowest in the central core districts in April.

Average Sold Price 2023 $2,959,333

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,337,834 -11% Year-over-year

DRAMATIC NEW FOREST HILL CUSTOM Offered at $14,750,000

SOLD | 106 Wychwood Park

3/4 AC IN CASA LOMA ENCLAVE Offered at $25,000,000 STUNNING RUSSELL HILL ESTATE Offered at $16,900,000

January 1st - April 30st,

Casa Loma

January

Average Sold Price 2023 $2,969,907

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,566,200 -17% Year-over-year

Average Sold Price 2023 $2,945,250

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,874,667 -24% Year-over-year

Leaside continues be one of the city’s strongest housing pockets, with the average price of a home over $2 million up three per cent over year-ago levels, climbing to close to $3.3 million in the first four months of 2023. Twenty-five properties were sold in between January and April, down from the 31 sales reported during the same period in 2022. Nearly half of the 25 properties were sold for more than list price.

Homebuying activity in Leaside is greatest between the $2 - $4 million price point, with young families leading the charge for the area’s detached and semi-detached properties. Eight homes are currently listed for sale, ranging in price from close to $2.4 million to just under $5.4 million.

With demand outpacing supply in Leaside yet again, upward pressure on housing values is expected to remain strong. Properties sold in April spent an average of 10 days on market and the trend is likely continue throughout the busy spring market.

Leaside (C11) Leaside

SOLD | 61 Southvale Drive

Average Sold Price 2023 $3,281,732

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,176,833

3% Year-over-year

Bedford Park, Lawrence Park, Lytton Park, Forest Hill North (C04)

The Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the overnight rate at 4.5 per cent in April is likely to further bolster homebuying activity in TRREB’s C04 district, comprised of the Bedford Park-Nortown, Lawrence Park North and South, and Forest Hill North communities, in the second quarter of 2023.

In Forest Hill North, eight sales occurred in the first four months of the year, just one short of year ago levels for the same period. Listings are typically tight in the neighbourhood and this year is no different, with just five homes currently listed for sale. Average price over $2 million is up twelve per cent over last year in the area, hovering at close to $3.1 million so far this year, up from $2,745,333 during the same period in 2022.

Sales of homes in Bedford Park-Nortown were down year-over-year, with just 43 properties sold in the first four months of the year. Average price, however, held relatively steady, down five per cent to just short of $3.2 million. There are 33 homes available for sale at present, ranging in value from $2.15 million to close to $7.6 million.

Housing values in Lawrence Park remain steady, with the average price over $2 million down three per cent in Lawrence Park North to $2,683,787 year-to-date, compared to the same period in 2022, and 16 per cent off year-ago levels in Lawrence Park South. Lawrence Park has experienced some softening in sales in the first four months of the year. Just 14 homes are currently listed for sale between almost $2.6 million and $11.35 million in Lawrence Park South, while 10 priced from almost $2.2 million to close to $15 million are available in Lawrence Park North.

Park-Nortown

January

Average Sold Price 2023 $3,267,875

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,882,975 -16% Year-over-year

Forest Hill North

Average Sold Price 2023 $3,084,563

Average Sold Price 2022 $2,745,333 12% Year-over-year

NEWLY BUILT CRICKET CLUB MASTERPIECE Offered at $6,299,000

SOLD | 538 Douglas Avenue

SOLD | 19 Forest Glen Crescent Represented the seller & the buyer

1.8 ACRES ON CORTLEIGH BLVD Offered at $8,650,000

PERMIT READY IN LYTTON PARK Offered at $6,880,000

SOLD | 46 Teddington Park Avenue Represented the buyer

Banbury-Don Mills (C13)

While luxury sales have tapered year-over-year in the Banbury-Don Mills neighbourhood, demand remains steady for entry-level product priced from $2 million to $3 million. Twenty-eight homes changed hands in the first four months of 2023, eleven of which sold for more than list price.

Young families continue to drive activity, with most drawn to the value offered by homes in the community. Sixteen sales occurred under $3 million and 12 at $3 million plus. Just 16 homes are currently listed for sale, priced from almost $2.3 million to $13.8 million.

Inventory levels at the $2 million to $3 million remain tight across the GTA, including the Banbury-Don Mills community. Supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, but if new listings fail to materialize, we could see upward pressure on prices yet again.

Average Sold Price 2023

$3,082,679

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,451,123 -11% Year-over-year

SOLD | 9 Alderdale Court

SOLD | 1 Blaine Drive

SOLD | 3 Sagewood Drive

Luxury Condominiums (GTA)

Despite lower year-over-year sales activity, demand for luxury condominiums throughout the GTA has held up relatively well. Eighty-one condominium apartments and townhomes were sold in the first four months of the year, down from 113 units reported during the same period in 2022. The average price of a luxury condominium over $2 million softened in the first quarter of 2023, falling about four per cent from the $3.02 million posted in Q1 2022.

The 416-area code continues to draw the vast majority of condominium buyers, with 89 per cent of year-todate sales over $2 million occurring in Toronto Proper. Communities in the city’s downtown core such as the Annex, Bay St. Corridor, and Waterfront Communities (C1/C8) are most sought-after, although there has been a flurry of activity in older, established neighbourhoods such as Rosedale and Bedford Park this year. Waterfront condominiums in Old Oakville are also a popular choice with luxury condominium buyers, many of whom are downsizing from larger homes in the Oakville area.

While inventory may be tight in some sought-after buildings in the core, more than 216 condominiums, ranging in price from $2 million to almost $35 million, are currently listed for sale in the GTA.

Luxury Condominiums

January 1st - April 30st, 2023 vs. same period in 2022

Average Sold Price 2023 $2,902,961

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,026,531 -4% Year-over-year

STUNNING HAZELTON HOTEL CONDO Offered at $9,990,000

CHARACTER & GRANDEUR AT THE FOUR SEASONS RESIDENCES Offered at $18,000,000

HAZELTON HOTEL CORNER SUITE Offered at $13,800,000

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