2020 OUTLOOK
FLIGHT SHAMING HITS BUSINESS AVIATION AND OTHER PREDICTIONS FOR Oftentimes industry outlooks tend to be nothing
more than an extrapolation of what’s already happening at the end of the year rolled into next. For private aviation however, there are developments that would suggest that 2020 will shape up much differently than 2019. Here are some thoughts, trends and predictions for the year from Brian Foley
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JAUNT
Prince Harry has recently been slammed for jet-setting around Europe.
arely in the industry’s vernacular as 2019 rolled in, the term “flight-shaming” from the Swedish word Flygskam was developed by environmentalists to create the perception that one should be ashamed for flying and leaving a carbon footprint. Whereas criticism of corporate executives flying off into the sunset in their private jets had always been a crowd favorite to stick it to “the man” adding the environmental card now brings a nuclear option to activists’ arsenal. Aircraft owners risk being publicly called out à la Prince Harry for his now infamous Gulfstream jet trip to pal Elton John’s. In 2020, private flyers will gravitate towards ways to evade this kind of judgment and public humiliation, either by voluntarily paying into third-party carbon offset programs to have a good alibi if confronted, or by ditching aircraft ownership altogether by using charter, fractional or other non-ownership models that better protect identities. The latter is not at all helpful to new business jet sales which have been stubbornly anemic for the past decade. To create favorable corporate identities of being deeply concerned, committed stewards of the environment, companies in the Business Aviation industry will tweak their ad copy and concoct PR stunts to demonstrate commitment, such as one-time flights
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using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), by now an overdone skit. Others will offer voluntary access to pay-as-you-go carbon taxes to accommodate those who really care and others who want what is essentially an insurance policy to avoid public shaming. The only way out of this quagmire would be through the gradual introduction of hybrid-electric propulsion systems which eventually lead to allelectric engines. While the former could take 10 years and the latter 20 to come to limited fruition, it would eventually squelch the criticism even if smoke-belching, coal-fired electric plants are being used to charge the batteries.
2020 What to Watch Follow the money. With the US stock market up around a whopping 30% in 2019 and a repeat performance unlikely, investors are looking to overseas financial markets for better returns in 2020. This will have the effect of stimulating non-North American and emerging markets which have been on hiatus for much of the decade. Back in 2010, emerging markets accounted for 35% of worldwide business jet deliveries. In 2018 that figure had been reduced by half due to a variety of geopolitical and economic reasons. An inflow of investment due to attractive stock valuations coupled with an improved outlook for global
