Q4 2023 Market Commentary

Subtleties of Success and the Shadows of Risk Q4 2023 Commentary

With the close of 2023, the financial narrative unfolds a tale of resilience amidst volatility. The S&P 500 Index, with its robust rally of over 26%, marked a bullish resurgence, albeit one heavily skewed by the outsized influence of seven major tech giants. This anomaly underscores a critical concern about market concentration and its implications for broader market health. In contrast, the bond market, as reflected by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (AGG), remained mired in a drawdown, highlighting the ongoing complexities in the fixed-income arena.

These contrasting dynamics in the equity and bond markets underscore the pertinence of the RiskFirst® approach, which emphasizes prudent risk management and long-term strategic focus amidst fluctuating market conditions.

The Dichotomy of the Rally The S&P 500’s impressive 26% gain presents a complex narrative

index return. This highlights the inherent risks and limitations

in the equity markets. The reality is more nuanced. The largest

of market-cap weighted indices, which, while convenient, can

seven tech giants in the S&P 500, or the “Magnificent Seven,”

obscure underlying sectoral disparities and market dynamics.

has disproportionately influenced the index’s overall trajectory, and is responsible for over 50% of last years performance. This

The stark reality is that the Magnificent Seven delivered

has resulted in a skewed portrayal of market health, where the

extraordinary gains, but also exhibited significant risk. In 2022,

extraordinary gains of these few companies overshadow the

these stocks experienced a dramatic drawdown and fell 49.34%.

more modest or even negative performances of the wider index

This underscores the importance of a balanced approach to risk,

constituents. The average performance of all companies in the

as market euphoria can often distort investors’ risk perception.

index was around 14%, markedly lower than the cap-weighted

2023 Performance 30

The average stock in the S&P 500 significantly underperformed the overall index.

Return (%)

20

14.13% 10

0

Bottom 493 Stock’s Contribution

12.11%

S&P 500

26.24%

Equal Weighted S&P 500

13.84%

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/18/2024. Date range from 1/1/2023 - 12/31/2023.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 3

Late-Year Shifts in Dynamics In the latter half of 2023, financial markets witnessed a

sentiments can evolve in response to changing macroeconomic

notable shift with smaller cap and mid-sized companies

and geopolitical landscapes. This development underscores

gaining momentum, marking a departure from the earlier

the importance of dynamic portfolio management, adapting to

dominance of large-cap tech stocks. This trend represents

capitalize on emerging opportunities and manage associated

a systematic rally, driven by investor optimism that the Fed

risks in a swiftly changing market environment.

would soon pause rate hikes. This shift also highlights the agility of financial markets, demonstrating how rapidly investor

U.S. Small Caps

U.S. Mid Caps

International

U.S. Large Caps

We saw a significant return into small cap equities at the end of the year.

16% 14% 12% 10%

Return

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%

01

06

11

16

21

26

31

Days of December 2023 Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/24/2024. Date range from 12/1/2023 - 12/31/2023.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 4

Global Market Cycles The financial history books are replete with cycles of

Global diversification not only buffers against risk but

market dominance, none more enduring in recent memory

also

than the supercycle of U.S. stock outperformance. This

growth

extended period of over 16 years has provided investors with

through the historical patterns of market performance,

remarkable returns, but it also serves as a cautionary

diversification stands out as a dynamic tool for building portfolio

exemplar of the impermanence of market trends. As we reflect on

resilience and seeking worldwide opportunities.

exploits drivers

the of

asynchronous different

economic

regions.

As

cycles we

and

navigate

these cyclical patterns, the value of diversification across global markets becomes increasingly apparent.

Relative Performance Between U.S. and Emerging Market Stocks MSCI Emerging Market Index Outperformance

350%

MSCI U.S. Index Outperformance

315% (5.5 years)

We are currently in the longest U.S. cycle of outperformance.

300%

238% (16.2 years)

250% 195% (6.2 years)

200% 150% 100% 50%

49% (2.5 years) 31% (3.3 years)

91% (4.0 years)

83% (4 years) 48% (7.2 years)

44% (1.5 years)

36% (3.5 years)

0% 1969

1975

1981

1987

1993

1999

2005

2011

2017

2023

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/24/2024. Date range from 12/31/1969 - 1/23/2024.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 5

Bond’s Drawdown Dilemma In the realm of fixed income, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond

For investors to fully recoup their investment from a price

Index (AGG) made a slight recovery in the final quarter of the year,

perspective, there is a reliance on the possibility that bonds

closing 2023 with an uptick of 5.53%. Despite this recent rally, the

will once again trade at a premium. This expectation hinges

AGG is still trailing over 10% below its peak, a summit reached in

on a variety of factors, including market sentiment, interest

2020. This drawdown, which has persisted for over 1260 days,

rate trajectories, and broader economic conditions. As such,

has been one of the most enduring tests of patience for bond

bond investors face a complex landscape, where the road to

investors. Holders of the AGG who entered the market prior to

price recovery is not only dependent on market performance

the sell-off likely did so at a premium, acquiring bonds at prices

but also faces unknown risks that can once again drive

above their par value. This presents a unique conundrum, as the

bonds lower into double digit drawdowns.

intrinsic nature of bonds to mature at par value means that the path to recovery in bond prices is capped, with the amount of potential recovery being inherently limited.

Par Value (100)

Average Bond Price in the AGG.

Bonds must trade at a premium again for investors to fully recoup their losses.

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/24/2024. Date range from 12/27/1999 - 1/15/2024.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 6

The Fed’s Tightrope Walk A key narrative has been the Federal Reserve’s delicate

However, the history of Fed rate policies teaches us

balancing act with interest rates. The burgeoning optimism

that there are no guarantees about when rates will be

that fueled risk assets in the quarter partly stemmed from

cut or for how long. Previous rate pauses have varied in

the anticipation that the Fed might be on the cusp of

duration, lasting anywhere from four to fifteen months.

reducing interest rates. Such cuts are traditionally seen

The Fed’s primary mandate has been to control inflation,

as a boon for economic growth, making borrowing cheaper and

which has been showing signs of a downward trend. Yet,

often accompanying periods of expansion. Yet, the absence

there remains a palpable reluctance to reduce rates prematurely,

of definitive guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome

for fear of reigniting inflationary pressures—a scenario

Powell has left the market in a state of speculation, with some

reminiscent of the challenges faced during the Volcker era in the

analysts predicting rate cuts as soon as mid-2024.

1980s.

Average Length of Fed Pause: ~8 Months

Fed Funds Rate (%)

12

4 Months

10

Rates have been on pause for ~6 months now.

Interest Rate (%)

8 7 Months

5 Months

6

15 Months

4 8 Months 2

0 '85

'87

'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'11

'13

'15

'17

'19

'21

'23

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/24/2024. Date range from 12/31/1985 - 12/31/2023.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 7

Beyond the Rate Cut The prospect of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has historically

performance has been less favorable, falling 6% in the

been a harbinger of optimism in the markets, suggesting

subsequent year.

potential for economic stimulus and growth. Yet, the reality is that a rate cut alone does not guarantee a continued upward

This

trajectory for the market. The critical variable is the economy’s

investment decisions based on a single variable, such as

ability to avoid a recession in the aftermath of such cuts. Over

the anticipation of a rate cut. The interplay of rate cuts with

the past three decades, we’ve seen that when the economy

economic conditions and market reactions is complex, and

has managed to sidestep a recession following rate cuts, the

strategies based solely on speculation about interest rate

markets have generally responded favorably, with the S&P 500

movements are fraught with risk. The uncertain nature of

yielding 22% on average. Conversely, if the economy slips into a

the economy and market response necessitates a more

recession, the path diverges sharply. Historically, in recessionary

nuanced approach to risk exposure, one that considers a

periods

broader set of economic indicators and market signals.

following

an

initial

rate

cut,

the

S&P

500’s

pattern

illustrates

the

impracticality

of

making

S&P 500 Performance Following a Rate Cut 25%

Median performance when economy avoids recession following rate cut

Fed Cuts

+22%

20% 15%

Return

10%

A rate cut alone does not guarantee a continued upward trajectory for the market.

5% 0% -5%

- 6%

-10% Median performance when economy enters recession 12 months following rate cut

-15% 1

32

60

91

121

152

182

213

244

Days After Fed Rate Cut Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/24/2024. Date range from 11/18/1985 - 12/8/2023.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 8

Diversification in a Converging Market In the classic investment playbook, stocks and bonds have

climbing to unprecedented levels not witnessed in over

long been the dynamic duo of diversification, typically moving

three decades.

in opposite directions to provide a natural hedge within a portfolio. This inverse correlation has been a foundational

This evolution calls for a reevaluation of diversification strategies.

strategy for mitigating risk and capitalizing on the divergent

The increasing alignment of asset behaviors suggests that the

strengths of each asset class. Yet, the financial landscape

traditional portfolio composition may not be as robust a defense

is witnessing a significant shift. In a departure from the

against market volatility as it once was. In response to this trend,

past, we have seen an unusual synchrony in the movements

we must consider innovative approaches to diversification

of the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond

that recognize the changing dynamics and seek out new

index. The traditional balancing act between these assets

combinations of assets that can deliver non-correlated returns.

has given way to a parallel performance, with correlations

24-Month Rolling Correlation Between the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index

Stocks + bonds have smallest diversification benefit in over 30 years.

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/12/2024. Date range from 1/1/1978 - 1/12/2024.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 9

Cash Conundrum In a financial climate where cash yields have surged to

paper and cash equivalents are likely to decrease, diminishing

their highest in two decades, the allure of “risk-free” returns

their value to investors.

has drawn a myriad of investors towards money market assets, with holdings in these safe havens swelling to

While short-term bonds are subject to similar risks, longer-dated

unprecedented levels. Yet, this rush to cash is not without

bonds offer a semblance of a buffer. Their extended maturities

its pitfalls. Historically, the real yield on cash—its interest rate

often lock in higher yields, making them less susceptible to the

adjusted for inflation—has struggled to outpace the eroding

immediate effects of reinvestment risk—the risk of having to

force of inflation, often failing to preserve purchasing power

reinvest at lower rates in the future. This distinction becomes

over time. This phenomenon underscores one of the inherent

particularly crucial for retirees and pre-retirees who rely on yield

risks of cash holdings: their inability to provide a real return

and income to fund their post-working life. For these individuals,

above inflation in the long term. Furthermore, the current

the search for yield necessitates exploring alternatives beyond

yield boon is not immune to change. Should the Federal Reserve

cash and short-term bonds.

move to cut interest rates, the attractive yields on short-term

Rolling Annual 3 - Month Treasury Yield After Inflation Value Loss Due to Inflation

4

Cash yields have been unable to out pace inflation rates over the past decade.

Yield Minus Inflation (%)

2

0

-2

-4

-6 '00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

'21

'22

'23

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/12/2024. Date range from 7/31/2000 - 12/31/2023.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 10

Portfolio Recap As we look back to 2023, we find the markets have rallied

in major indices to the diminishing diversification benefits and

commendably. While our investment strategies have allowed

the lurking reinvestment risks.

us to partake in this uptick, our primary focus on managing risk has never wavered. This year’s rally, substantial as it

In this light, our RiskFirst ® approach remains steadfast.

may have been, has only just counterbalanced the steep

We persist in our search for innovative solutions that

drawdowns of 2022, reminding us of the importance of a long-

address

the

multifaceted

term perspective beyond the confines of a calendar year.

markets.

Our

strategies

risks are

present

designed

in not

today’s only

to

participate in market gains but to do so with a disciplined Amidst these challenges, our commitment to identifying

eye towards managing downside exposure. We believe that

and mitigating risk is more critical than ever. The

understanding and planning around these risks is essential to

financial landscape is rife with complexities that can

sustaining and building wealth over time.

undermine a portfolio’s health — from the concentrated rallies

Dynamic Shifts in DRB Tactical Risk-Off

Mulholland 300

Long IG Fixed-Income

Mulholland 300

Long HY Fixed-Income

Mulholland 300

Long Equity

Private Debt

Mulholland 300

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 11/16/2023. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this commentary for more information.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 11

Conclusion In these times, when short-term market movements can

Our commitment to our investors is unwavering in the face of

often cast long shadows over our investment decisions, we

these challenges. We understand that the path to achieving

are reminded of the distorting effect of cognitive biases like

investment goals is inextricably linked to an investor’s

recency bias, where undue weight is given to recent events.

tolerance for risk. Hence, we persist in our endeavor to find

Amidst the cacophony of market noise, it is tempting to chase

solutions that address the unique hurdles of each market

the allure of recent past performance. However, this approach

cycle. Our aim is not merely to navigate through the market’s

overlooks the potential risks that are a fundamental aspect

complexities but to do so with a clear vision that places our

of investing. It is the reason why we espouse a philosophy

clients’ long-term financial aspirations at the forefront.

that is anchored in the RiskFirst approach, prioritizing the ®

management of drawdown risk above all else.

As we move into the new year, we are cognizant of the journey ahead, filled with both opportunities and obstacles. With a

The recent trials faced by veteran bond managers underscore

rigorous, research-driven methodology and an unrelenting

the prudence of our conservative approach. Respected

focus on minimizing drawdowns, we stride forward. Our

bond funds, traditionally seen as pillars of safety, have been

purpose remains clear: to guide our clients toward their

rattled by prolonged drawdowns extending over a thousand

financial objectives with a steadfast resolve, ensuring that

days. This not only highlights the depth and duration of these

the strategies we employ are as resilient as they are robust,

downturns but also emphasizes the relentless challenges

capable of weathering the tides of change for lasting success.

they pose to even the most experienced of fund managers.

Ticker

Name

Max Drawdown

Days In Drawdown

Average Coupon

Average Bond Price

Yield To Maturity

Average Years To Maturity

DBLTX

DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund

-16.49%

904

2.51%

78.54

6.96%

20.68

FTRBX

Federated Hermes Total Return Bond Fund

-16.79%

861

3.64%

109.47

5.95%

11.81

PTTRX

PIMCO Total Return Fund

-18.78%

853

3.69%

88.64

6.01%

17.47

AGG

iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund

-18.44%

1267

3.24%

91.98

4.73%

13.31

VBTIX

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund

-18.55%

1265

3.11%

91.92

4.75%

12.11

SPAB

SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond

-18.56%

1267

3.30%

91.39

4.74%

13.08

BND

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

-18.58%

1265

3.11%

91.92

4.75%

12.11

SCHZ

Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF

-18.75%

1267

3.07%

90.01

4.74%

12.84

MAHQX

BlackRock Total Return Fund

-19.22%

861

3.23%

82.3

5.33%

23.61

TGLMX

TCW Total Return Bond Fund

-22.27%

1211

3.75%

83.07

5.90%

18.7

Source: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 1/24/2024. Date Range from 1/1/2019 - 1/24/2024. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this commentary for more information.

bayntree.com

Bayntree Wealth Advisors | 12

General Disclosures The market commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a solicitation to invest or increase investments in Bayntree Wealth Advisors (‘Bayntree’) products or affiliated products. The information contained herein is not intended to provide any investment advice or provide the basis for any investment decisions. Please consult a qualified professional before making decisions about your financial situation. Information and commentary provided by Bayntree are opinions and should not be construed as facts. There can be no guarantee that any of the described objectives can be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Information provided herein from third parties is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Diversification of asset class or investment style does not guarantee against loss or outperformance. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable. Any individual securities shown are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Any funds shown will have different investment objectives and strategies and are for illustration purposes only and is not a statement of equal comparisons. The price of any investment may rise or fall due to changes in the broad markets or changes in a company’s financial condition and may do so unpredictably. Bayntree does not make representations that any strategy will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown in this presentation. Please speak to an advisor before investing any strategy shown within. Indices are shown for informational purposes only; it is important to note that Bayntree’s strategies differ from the indices displayed and should not be used as a benchmark for comparison to account performance. While the indices chosen to represent broad market performance of each asset class, there are report limitations as to available indices and blends, which index can be selected, and how they are presented. Portfolios are sub-advised by Mulholland Wealth Advisors, LLC, (“Mulholland”) an unaffiliated investment advisor registered with the SEC. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training and no inference to the contrary should be made. Please refer to Mulholland’s Form ADV Part 2A (“Brochure”) for more information. RiskFirst® is a registered trademark of Redwood Investment Management, LLC. (“Redwood”), which is an affiliate of Mulholland. Dynamic Risk Budgeted (DRB) and Engineered Risk Budgeted (ERB) portfolios are proprietary to Redwood.

Definitions Magnificent 7 refers to large mega cap companies consisting of Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon. Drawdown is a measure of peak to trough loss in a given period; a maximum drawdown is a measure of the maximum peak to trough percentage loss in a given period. Small Cap are companies with market caps between $300 million to $2 billion. Mid Cap are companies with market caps between $2 billion and $10 billion are known as midcap stocks. Large Cap are companies with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion. Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States that raises or lowers interest rates. Inflation is a decrease in the purchasing power of money, reflected in a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy.

Indices S&P 500 refers to the S&P 500 Index which is a stock market index based on the market capitalization of 500 leading companies publicly traded in the U.S. stock market, as determined by Standard & Poor’s. Dow Jones Industrial Avg. (Average) is an index by Standard & Poor’s that tracks 30 widely traded blue chip stocks with large market capitalization. MSCI Emerging Market Index is an equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Market (EM) countries. MSCI U.S. Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the US market. Barclays U.S. Aggregate refers to the Barclays U.S. Capital Aggregate Bond Index, which is an index that consists of investment grade U.S. Government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. It is often considered representative of the U.S. investment-grade fixed rate bond market.

An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise noted, index returns reflect the reinvestment of income dividends and capital gains, if any, but do not reflect fees, brokerage commissions or other expenses of investing. Investors cannot make direct investments into any index.

Bayntree Wealth Advisors, LLC (‘Bayntree’) is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training and no inference to the contrary should be made. Bayntree’s advisory fees and risks are fully detailed in its Form ADV Part 2A (Brochure”), which is available upon request. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or part without express written permission. Bayntree and Redwood are not affiliated.

Contact Us Bayntree Wealth Advisors

7001 N. Scottsdale Rd., #2055, Scottsdale, AZ 85253 480.494.2750 | bayntree.com