The way to alleviate climate change is to increase mining

Mike Kaiser, Director-General, Queensland Department of Resources

There is little prospect of the world meeting its climate change targets without a lot more mining happening in Queensland.

In fact, the growth of Queensland’s resources sector is crucial to the world’s efforts to decarbonise.

That’s because addressing climate change will mean the electrification of the global economy and the deployment of renewable technologies and batteries, all of which requires Queensland minerals.

It’s a point the International Energy Agency (IEA) compellingly argues. The IEA estimates that total demand for the new economy minerals required for clean technologies will double by 2040 under existing global commitments to reduce emissions. That demand will quadruple if international efforts are increased to achieve zero net emissions by 2050 and reach the Paris Agreement target to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

This doesn’t just present an opportunity for Queensland. It presents an obligation. There’s a very real chance that the thing that will stop the world meeting its climate change targets is the availability of the minerals Queensland has in abundance.

For example, the Queensland Government has recently approved the new Multicom Saint Elmo vanadium mine near Julia Creek. Demand for vanadium is expected to increase substantially over the period to 2040. The reason? Not only is vanadium used in steel blends, it is also a key ingredient for battery technologies for commercial applications such as grid-scale energy storage solutions for the world’s electricity grids, to maximise the benefits of renewable generation.

Demand will also increase for other minerals that have only recently emerged as being attractive for use in a range of new technologies. For example, demand for cobalt – a critical input into batteries used in electric vehicles and an emerging strength for Queensland – may exceed what can be supplied from mines that are currently operating and under construction by as much as 100% out to 2030.

But it isn’t just the exotic rare earth minerals that the world is demanding of us. There’s plenty of copper, zinc, and aluminium required to build the equipment needed to electrify the global economy. Despite being well-established, traditional commodities, shortages are forecast. For example, the IEA estimates that overall global demand for copper is expected to be 25% greater in 2030 than what can be provided from mines that are currently operating and under construction.

The World Bank recently examined the metal and mineral demand for a range of renewable energy technologies. They found that solar power will continue to create demand for aluminium, which is estimated to account for 85% of the mineral demand out to 2050 for the manufacture of solar panel components.

Similarly, we can expect demand for our coal to remain strong as customers in the region seek to expand their economic opportunity and create the steel needed for international development, including wind turbines.

The blast furnaces across Asia which combine coal and iron ore to produce steel are relatively new and are designed to be used for decades to come. That means current steel producers will have a strong incentive to pursue emissions reductions in their existing operations before considering a complete change in technology. This will mean using their steel mills as efficiently as possible for as long as possible, including by utilising high-quality inputs, like Queensland’s metallurgical coal.

So, the race to find and develop all these minerals is on. It’s why the Queensland Government strongly invests in exploration activity, providing open access to geological data and through direct grants to explorers.

The opportunities extend beyond just extracting ore. Global decarbonisation will stimulate a new wave of minerals processing and manufacturing opportunities throughout regional Queensland. For example, now that vanadium mining has been approved at Julia Creek, Government will work with industry to facilitate opportunities to ensure that the ore is also processed and used in battery manufacture in regional Queensland.

There’s no doubt that these global trends will transform the Queensland economy, and with it, our resources sector. But responding to change is nothing new. Queensland’s resources sector has demonstrated its agility over the decades by adapting to new discoveries, shifts in demand and new technologies.

Why can we be confident in our ability to create these supply chains from mine to manufacture? Because it’s in our DNA. Queensland already has a substantial minerals processing industry in aluminium, zinc, and copper. We will use that expertise and our highly skilled regional workforce to expand our processing industry into the new economy minerals the world now craves.

The other significant advantage Queensland has on the world stage is our strong regulatory framework - fair wages, safe working conditions, high environmental standards and just native title arrangements. This puts Queensland suppliers in a great position to satisfy investor and customer Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) concerns. In future, European and North American customers in particular will require evidence of ethical sourcing in their trade and purchasing arrangements.

There’s no doubt that these global trends will transform the Queensland economy, and with it, our resources sector. But responding to change is nothing new. Queensland’s resources sector has demonstrated its agility over the decades by adapting to new discoveries, shifts in demand and new technologies.

Change is again upon us, but this change creates enormous opportunity for our state, the resources sector and Queenslanders.

The imperative to address global warming will create jobs in mining and trigger a new wave of regional industrialisation through minerals processing and manufacturing.

This presents not just an opportunity, but also an obligation. The greatest contribution Queensland can make to tackling global change is to find, mine and process the materials the world will need to decarbonise. •