David Graddol "English in the Future: It's Role in Economic Development"

20/11/2012

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20/11/2012

ENGLISH AS A LINGUA FRANCA • Most interactions using English will not include a native speaker • More concerned with 'soft skills' and intelligibility than accuracy • Focus on intercultural communication skills • Can a speaker develop a rapport, negotiate, persuade through English?

• It's OK not to sound like a native speaker • Bilinguals are often better at lingua franca usage than monolingual native speakers • Competence (at least receptive) is needed in many forms of English

EMERGENT FEATURES OF ELF • 3rd person singular >> 'He run' • Complex native speaker usage of 'the' and 'a' will simplify - articles may be lost ('He is very good person') • 'Which' vs 'who' distinction may disappear • Non count plurals may regularise ('informations', 'researches') • Pronunciation of 'th' may become a stop ('t') • Vowel contrasts will reduce in number • Speech may become syllable timed

THE FUTURE OF ELF • ELF has become a major scholarly research area, with its own specialist journal.

• Many of the trends which ELF studies note are having an impact on English in the future, and have helped inform courses in communications especially cross-cultural communications.

• ELF problematises the teaching of English - which variety should be taught, how should it be tested.

However, no clear answers to these questions have yet emerged.

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IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHY ON THE ECONOMY

THE NEW WORLD RUSH TO ENGLISH

• As the proportion of people in employment falls, they must become more productive if the national economy is not to shrink • Fewer children allow more intensive investment in education (by the state, by parents) • As workers become scarce, wages become higher - this means it becomes more economic for manufacturers to invest in technology (eg robots) rather than employ workers • Middle class, educated, urban families have fewest babies • If skilled workers become scarce, there is increased pressure to allow immigration for skilled workers

• Since late 1990s English has been made a central part of Educational reform in many countries • China in 2001 decided English should be taught by Grade 3, earlier in cities like Shanghai • English has changed in most countries from being a 'foreign language' to a 'basic skill' required by all children • More children study some subjects through English whilst at school • Universities - especially in Europe and Asia - are providing more courses through English • Many graduate jobs - especially in the professions - require high levels of English • This means a new generation is growing up across the world who speak English, potentially eroding any special advantage for countries who already have English

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ASSUMPTIONS • The rate of progress in the escalator model assumes: • Good quality teaching (teachers, methods, materials) • Sufficient hours per week • Good motivation by the learners • Support from the home environment

THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR • In most countries now trying to improve proficiency levels of English in the workforce, the private sector seems to play an important role • Parents use language schools to 'top up' school provision • Students use private colleges to prepare for key exams (eg Ielts), or take 'finishing courses' to improve employability • Young adults who have disposable income are able to invest it in improving their English • Private institutes allow late starters to catch up • Promotion difficulties due to lack of English often appear mid career

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ECONOMIC TRENDS AFFECTING DEMAND FOR ENGLISH • Regionalisation of economies • The trend towards services, rather than agriculture or manufacturing • The trend towards more knowledge intensive services • Shift towards domestic economy away from exports

THE NATURE OF CEFR A1 AND A2 LEVELS • The A levels are defined as basic, but do define a useful level of functional ability in the language • A level language users are restricted to 'familiar topics and contexts' • A2 is often sufficient for jobs in retail, hospitality services etc, where routine processes, enquiries and information giving are required • However, A1 classroom English is NOT A1 Hotel English - each operates in a different range of contexts

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE C1/C2 LEVELS • C1 Can use language flexibly and effectively for social, academic and professional purposes.

• C1 is regarded as the minimum level at which meanings can be formulated with precision and is the level required for university study in English medium and for professional communication in globalised business.

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ENGLISH IN THE WORKPLACE

CREATING THE TALENT POOL

• As services provided to the general public (eg retail, hospitality, health) grow, so does the need for staff to be able to communicate with people with diverse language backgrounds. English is now the global lingua franca.

• Often, language needs are different for communicating ‘up the line’, than ‘down the line’.

• In multinational companies, a lack of English often causes a barrier to promotion in mid career.

• Many European and Asian companies have adopted English as their corporate language.

• A lack of English in the local workplace makes it difficult for multinationals to rotate key management between countries.

• Countries which are unable to home grow sufficient English-speaking graduates find they have to bring in talent from abroad.

• Creating local talent requires opportunities to travel, study abroad, engage in exchanges, internships etc. A lack of English often prevents local people from acquiring international experience outside the Spanishspeaking countries.

THE PEARL RIVER DELTA ECONOMY IS RESTRUCTURING • The whole of Guangdong is attempting to move up the value chain - towards higher value production and services. Raising the minimum wage to price out lowcost factory labour, is one current strategy • Shenzhen is establishing itself as a direct competitor to Hong Kong in financial and business services by establishing the new business district at Qianhai • Guangzhou is leading many of these trends • The profile of English levels required in the workforce to allow this economic transition in the PRD will increasingly look like that in Hong Kong

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SOME CONCLUSIONS • There is no doubt that English is becoming a more important factor in sustainable economic growth.

• It remains a challenge to fully understand the role of English in economic processes, but there appears to be a rule: the higher value the process, the higher the level of English is needed. This in part because the mix of technology, creativity and innovation requires international collaboration.

• The rate of change is so fast that it is difficult for educational policy and practice to respond. This is not just an issue for education. It also requires a close match with economic planning.

• We need to think more carefully about the actual levels of proficiency needed by the economy and by individuals, and to balance social and cultural costs against benefit.

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