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sports Tackle World Moruya Fishing Report Aug 26th

Moruya River. I guess it’s been 2 weeks since our last report, given I was away on holidays. We have had reasonable weather in that me, except for the near freezing blast earlier this week! The river has con nued to be a li le on the quiet side with the excep on of some good tailor schools towards the front of the system around Preddy’s wharf. The fish have been a medium size, but the numbers have certainly made up for the average size. They have been a good source for the smokers in the area, or those wan ng to salt them down for baits later in the year. There are s ll a few flathead lurking deep, but anglers are having to annoy the heck out of the fish to illicit a response. This is the norm with the cooler waters we are experiencing. As we approach the end of August and the rapidly approaching spring season, the weather and waters will slowly start to warm up over the next month or so. We can expect that the shallow flats areas will warm first, which will spark the flathead into a post winter feeding period. Early spring is a good me to target big flathead as they try to put condi on on a er a slow winter. They tend to bite hard to start, then will slow down as they get their fill, before moving into the normal period of high ac vity over summer. We will have to see what this summer brings weather wise, as early predic ons are for yet another La Niña or wet summer this year, the third in a row! Tuross River. Flathead con nue to grace the decks and buckets of anglers working this system of late. While quiet by usual standards, there are s ll fish to be found for this prepared to put in the effort. The deep hole in front of the boat shed always seems to produce a fish or two, while the holes in front of four ways also are holding a few fish. As the season progresses and water temps rise, Tuross, with its extensive flats areas is always the first system to see a spike in flathead ac vity as they come out of a slow winter and feed up for summer. Any flats that have a dark, muddy substrate, will be areas to concentrate on, as the dark bases warm faster than the sandy ones early season. Start with small 2.5” so plas c presenta ons and work up to the bigger 4-8” presenta ons as the summer comes into full swing. Come October we will have a new range of paddle tail baits from Atomic that will go all the way up to 200mm for those chasing XOS Flathead or Mulloway. Keep an eye on our socials for when they arrive. Rock and Beach. Salmon have been abundant in their numbers I have been told, as have the Tailor from the local beaches and the Moruya Breakwall. Drummer should s ll be a good op on off the local ledges as they prefers a cooler water temperature. Saturday is looking to be the pick of the days this weekend, with li le wind before it picks up on Sunday a ernoon. Offshore. Snapper, flathead, mowong have all been reported in close, with the odd Bluefin Tuna out wide. We will be ge ng an range boost to our stock of baits on the lure wall in the next few weeks, as new stock becomes available to Australian market from some of the major suppliers. Stay tuned for those. It’s good to be back on deck a er a busy few weeks off, now to knock over stock take and make room for the new bits and pieces that will be turning up. Thanks to Russell for covering for me while I was away, now it’s me to get ready for what will hopefully be a busy, produc ve summer period. Stay safe everyone and remember, “everyday’s a good day for fishing…” Team Tackle World Moruya.

South Coast Property Specialists (Carlene Franzen) Tips #1111: To Crash or Not To Crash – Part 2

Readers of last week’s Franzen Tips read about the nervousness of some in the real estate market regarding the possibility of a “crash”. On one hand we have some media outlets sta ng “Property Prices will Fall 30%” while some property analysts are dispu ng the likely hood of such a fall as a number of the market variables such as very low unemployment don’t support the condi ons for the widespread fire sale of proper es. During the week the Domain group published further analysis of the peaks and troughs in the property market over the last 30 years, which likely gives some indica on of what may occur in this current downturn. The report stated:  House prices do not go through wild boom and bust phases, we tend to see a period of gains (quite o en surging), followed by a slight decline or flatlined pricing.  On average, an upswing sees house prices rise 32.7% from the point of price trough to peak, spanning 2.75 years.  On average, a downturn sees house prices decline 3.0% from the point of price peak to trough, spanning 0.75 years.  On average, downturns have been just over one-quarter the dura on of the preceding upswing.

They also found that over the last 30 years there have only been four periods where house prices (across the combined capitals) declined annually being in 1995/96, 2008/09, 2011/12 and 2018/19. In all of these downturns, the decline (at an annual rate) was less than 10%. The rate of incline following each of these downturns then peaked above 10% indica ng that the rebound was greater than the preceding decline.

The report noted that it is the top end of the market that tends to lead the price cycles, having the greatest downturn but then following that up by having the greatest recovery.

They also noted that “unlike the last downturn, interest rates are rising, increasing the cost of a home loan and reducing borrowing capacity at a me when living costs are soaring. While this might mean a bigger decrease in prices than we have historically seen, this analysis suggests that it is unlikely we will see a return to a pre-pandemic price. The current combined capitals’ median house price is $1.065 million; it would need to drop by a further 25% to be at pre-pandemic pricing”. This would certainly be an excep onal outcome in comparison with the last four downturns as shown above. The report included a valuable quote for those property owners out there:

It is not ming the market that is important, it is the me spent in the market that counts.

The full report from Domain can be found here: h ps://www.domain.com.au/research/can-we-learn-from-previous-price-cycles-1160395/

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