BEATA SZABINA HERSKOVICS Marketing & Sales Specialist, IncQuery Labs
VDC SUMMARY
What Questions Are Addressed? 01
How is the COVID pandemic affecting spending on modeling tools?
04
02
Which verticals have proven most resilient to downturn and ripest for long-term growth?
05
How are Machine Learning and AI development needs impacting modeling tool use?
03
How does the future outlook for commercial modeling tools in the embedded/IoT market compare to projections for the enterprise/IT
06
In what ways will the evolving practices of engineers and software developers influence tooling decisions and preferences over the next few years?
Are recent lifecycle management vendor acquisitions influencing product innovation and tool selection?
sector?
07
How should modeling tool providers respond to best serve the needs of modern engineering teams?
Executive Summary $1.2B in 2019 - $1.6B by 2024
PLBM: $663.7M in 2019 $874.6M by 2024.
SLBM: $270.1M in 2019 $874.6M by 2024.
The global market for software and system modeling tools totaled $1.2B in 2019.
In 2019, the global embedded/IoT proprietary language-based modeling (PLBM) tool market totaled $663.7M.
SLBM tool revenue in the embedded/IoT market will increase at a CAGR of 6.0%, reaching $361.3M in 2024 from a base of $270.1M in 2019
PLBM tool revenue will increase at a CAGR of 5.7% to reach $874.6M by 2024.
In 2019, the enterprise/IT SLBM market totaled $307.6M. This market will increase at a CAGR of 3.8% to reach $373.9M in 2024.
Modeling tool revenue growth will reaccelerate after the malaise of 2020 for an overall average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 5% through 2024, reaching $1.6B. During the last recession, the modeling tool market contracted over 8% in 2009. / slight growth in 2020
PLBM tools, automotive and aerospace and defense, medicalstarted to accelerate
Future growth and expanded tool adoption in the SLBM market will be contingent on both successful stewardship of SysML 2.0 solutions as well as the broader evangelism of traditional modeling tool value points, such as code generation, reuse, and timeto-market savings.
Key Findings
Automotive remains the top industry for embedded/IoT software and system modeling tool revenue, generating $265.0M in 2019. While rail is expected to generate an even faster rate of growth at a CAGR of 9.8% across the forecast period. (Opportunity)
MathWorks and IBM together represented just under half of all IoT/embedded market revenue in 2019.
33% of surveyed engineers are deploying IoT capabilities. Furthermore, more than 75% of respondents will fit that categorization by 2022. Approximately 75% of organizations report investigation or implementation of cross-engineering domain integration, up from 50% of engineers in 2010.
Only 19% of modeling tool users reported projects behind schedule versus 30% of nonusers.
Global Software and System Modeling Tools The global market for automated software and system modeling tools totaled $1.2B in 2019, but will grow only .5% in 2020 as the commercial market navigates the impact of the pandemic. During the last recession, the modeling tool market contracted over 8% in 2009. / slight growth in 2020
Future growth and expanded tool adoption in the SLBM market will be contingent on both successful stewardship of SysML 2.0 solutions as well as the broader evangelism of traditional modeling tool value points, such as code generation, reuse, and time-tomarket savings.
The SLBM tool market is primed for disruption. PLBM Tool Market Software and systems engineering tools – increasing Pandemic impacted -> spending slowdowns Automotive market – slowdown, but increase expected. Euro currency conversion rates had a large impact on the automotive PLBM market. automotive and aerospace and defense, medical- started to accelerate
SLBM Tool Market The commercial enterprise/IT market – slowdown, because of the adoption of low cost and alternative coding platforms
SysML 2.0 Easy-to-use Precision integration with other models and workflows
IoT & AI Shaping Next Generation Projects IoT, M2M, Edge, or simply connected systems, development and engineering organizations are rapidly reshaping the products they develop and the services they deliver through them.
33%
of engineering organizations are deploying IoT capabilities. Greater than 3/4 of respondents will fit that categorization within the next 3 years. Even higher rate of modeling tool users report IoT alignment, demonstrating the correlation of utility for the more complex projects.
Recent Developments
IoT
Machine Learning Design and simulation of advanced systems will align itself with the use of modeling tools – with some PLBM tools already specifically geared to address those challenges.
Recent Developments Open Services for Lifecycle Collaboration These same vendors attempted to evangelize at least the better management of models – across and between modeling tools.
18% of our survey respondents citing ‘integration challenges’
as contributing to their projects delay, representing the
4. most frequently cited issue out of 20
OSLC
PTC and Siemens
Regional Forecast US-based development organizations simply continued their focus on their advanced projects Increased use of the tools in telecommunications, medical devices Subscriptionor extended term-based license deals
The PLBM tool market decreased Increased use of the tools in slightly in 2020 in EMEA (covidtelecommunications, medical automotive) devices
PLBM US market higher than in the EMEA - slightly higher revenue than in the EMEA SLBM Embedded/IoT EMEA higher than in the US - also higher revenue SLBM Enterprise/ IT market is the same, both in the US and the EMEA, but the revenue is better in the EMEA
Vertical Forecast
Competitive Landscape by Technology
Biggest vendors: Mathworks+IBM 50% Followed by NI, Dassault, Ansys, dSpace around 6% shares
Competitive Landscape SLBM Embedded/IoT biggest vendors 85%: IBM 50%, Dassault 20%, PTC 15%
PLBM biggest vendors: Mathworks slightly more than half of the market Followed by NI 8% , dSpace around 6% market share
SLBM Enterprise/IT biggest vendors app. 80%: IBM 54%, Dassault 14%, Microsoft 10%
End user insight
T h a n k
Y U
APPENDIX
One of the largest impediments to MathWorks’ potential future growth is its own desire to remain hyper-focused on product development and ease of use for its tools. Although the company is heavily involved in a small number of customer cases, we expect that the active pursuit of these opportunities would lead to a significant opportunity given their brand and expertise – even if it would come at the expense of its traditional business model. remains the standard language-based tool market leader. The days of its unquestioned and perpetual market leadership in the segment are now in jeopardy, however. IBM surrendered the clear technology headliner status that Rhapsody once engendered. The evolution and maturation of No Magic solutions under Dassault will only drive it even further to the premium market, leaving Sparx as the only “entry-level” solution of note. Midst of these headwinds, NI is working to rebrand itself and extend its solution set into complementary areas. Based on this study, however, they required not a rebranding, but rather a focused effort to expand to adjacent industries. No Magic continues to make headway in the IoT/embedded engineering arena. Clearly, the alignment of the companies’ portfolios creates a significant opportunity to capitalize on the growing desire for tighter mechanical and software engineering data and practices. As Dassault works to revamp its portfolio, however, questions remain over the long-term viability of its software engineering-focused solutions. Prior acquisitions in the domain have disappeared (e.g. Geensys/Geensoft) while the corporate cultures of France- and Texas-based entities could not have been more different. Similarly, openness will remain a critical goal and criticism for Dassault to gain share in the software engineering space. VDC believes that the additional capabilities added to Cameo Systems Modeler in 2019 to export SysML models and diagrams to Simulink, Stateflow, S-functions, Simscape, and Modelica are valuable steps in this direction.
Code Composition Shines Light On Code Generation Problem engineering organizations alike are pressed for time, resources, and sources of innovation, efficient development is at a premium- subsequent trends brought on by increasing in-sourcing and the 2020 pandemic. increasing demands for both code and process standard compliance only magnifies the potential time and cost savings Increasing amount of auto-generated code -> enterprise/IT.code generation is a critical component of modeling tool value proposition that will resonate with the increasingly centralized purchasing decisions.
A Model for Market Success Engineering organizations are in dire need of solutions, both new and old, that can help them navigate increasingly complex systems-of-systems design and execution.
Only 19%
of modeling tool users reported projects behind schedule
versus 30% of non-users.
Likewise, modeling tool users reported projects lasting 14.4 months on average versus 15.5 months for those not using.
ALM Vision Strongly Intact organizations investigating the expansion of this vision a strong pattern of use of complementary software development and engineering tools within the modeling tool user base These usage statistics come at a time when there has been a reamalgamation of lifecycle management solutions in the market as seen at Perforce, Siemens and Synopsys. IBM, which had divested part of its Rational portfolio, recently announced a new SCA solution. The market pendulum continues its swing back towards integrated solution providers.
Scope/Methodology – Software and System Modeling Tools This study covers the worldwide market for software and system modeling tools. Focused on the sales of the following products and related services: Standard language-based software and system modeling tools intended to facilitate the process of developing objectoriented and/or event-driven software and systems used for model-driven design. UML, SysML SDL-based modeling environments UML-based state chart/machine tools Proprietary language-based software and system modeling tools, typically intended to automate the process of designing and simulating dynamic systems and control applications (often complex systems). This segment also includes stand-alone automated code generators commonly integrated with system modeling and simulation environments.
Inside this report 1.) MBSE practices have fundamentally rejuvenated the uses and commercial market for modeling tools in recent years.
2.) Engineering organizations are looking to: scale deployments integrate system design workflows address next-generation development challenges
3.) This report analyzes the market and emerging trends for SLBM & PLBM 4.) Market dynamics are discussed in the context of: leading vendors current technologies competitive landscapes data from VDC’s Software and System Development Survey