3. D emand Outlook and Reference Scenarios 3.1. Hydrogen Demand Outlook by 2050 The EU’s future energy demand and hydrogen’s share remain highly uncertain. Although the EU’s strategy does not mandate specific hydrogen consumption levels, it references multiple projections in which energy demand ranges between 5.6 and 11.4 PWh by 2050, together with a hydrogen share of 1% to 23%.39 Despite the wide variations in projections, the transition to a low-carbon economy and the need to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors will significantly increase hydrogen demand across all scenarios. For the following analyses, EU hydrogen demand by 2050 is assumed to be equivalent to 15% of current primary energy consumption or about 76 Mt/yr, in good alignment with recent literature (see Figure 3).40
39 EU Joint Research Center (JRC) (2019) “Hydrogen Use in EU Decarbonisation Scenarios,” EU Science Hub, last update 9 July 2020, accessed 20 September 2021, JRC116452. https://web.archive.org/ web/20201214082537/https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/final_insights_into_hydrogen_use_public_ version.pdf 40 See also Dos Reis, PC (2021) “Hydrogen Demand: Several Uses but Significant Uncertainty,” European University Institute Florence School of Regulation, 18 January 2020. https://fsr.eui.eu/hydrogen-demandseveral-uses-but-significant-uncertainty/
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The Future of Renewable Hydrogen in the European Union
