5. R enewable Hydrogen Potential This section analyzes renewable hydrogen potentials for each country to assess the viability of each reference scenario.
5.1. Renewable Hydrogen Potentials in the EU and Trade Partners In line with our previous research (see Table 2),63 the detailed quantitative analysis of renewable hydrogen potentials for each country shows that only a small number of member states could become regional exporters (group 4 in Table 2), and that no member state has the potential to develop into an export champion. All EU member states have moderate or low potentials (see Figure 6). Central European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have the lowest, while countries in the EU’s periphery such as Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and the Baltic States64 have the largest, ranging from 4 to 22 Mt/yr. In contrast, neighboring countries like Morocco and Norway and long-distance partners like Australia and the United States all have the potential to emerge as global export champions. Morocco dominates with more than 161 Mt/yr among regional partners, followed by Norway and Iceland with about 16 Mt/yr each. Turkey and Albania’s potentials are significantly limited by the low cost-competitiveness of their renewable energy resources. Finally, potentials for Australia and the United States are orders of magnitude larger than any other country considered, with 2,733 Mt/yr and 1,810 Mt/yr, respectively.
63 See Pflugmann and De Blasio (2020) Geopolitical and Market Implications of Renewable Hydrogen for a detailed discussion of the country classification. 64 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
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