Hertfordshire Global

The strength of

Britain’s exporters

The heightened economic uncertainty and rising costs are also expected to significantly weaken business investment, with 1.8% growth predicted in 2022, down sharply from 3.5% in the previous forecast.

Firstly, congratulations to

ALL our winners following the recent Inspiring Herts Awards, held at Warner Bros Studio in Leavesden. Special congratulations to Zoocha, winners of the Excellence in International Trade award! Well done also to the other finalists, Premier Ship Models, EziDrops and Brooks & Kempton. The award recognises the strength of Britain’s exporters, demonstrating that they have generated significant and/or sustained increases in export activity.

Similarly, we recently hosted a webinar advertising the Queen’s Award for Enterprise. A follow up workshop is being arranged.

Can I please encourage you to consider entering these prestigious awards? If you need any advice, then do please contact us. The worldwide situation continues much as before with the war in Ukraine, higher general costs, supply chain issues and the pandemic all overarched with the continuing issues following Brexit. This leads to ongoing uncertainty and an uncertain cocktail of predictions going forward.

The British Chambers of Commerce has slightly downgraded its expectations for UK GDP growth for the remainder of this year to 3.5% (from 3.6%) and less than half the 7.5% growth recorded last year, due to the continuing deteriorating economic backdrop and outlook. The BCC also expects inflation to hit 10% in Q4.

The heightened economic uncertainty and rising costs are also expected to significantly weaken business investment, with 1.8% growth predicted in 2022, down sharply from 3.5% in the previous forecast.

Consumer spending is now forecast to grow at 4% in 2022, a fall from the 4.4% prediction in the first quarter.

Imports of goods from the EU rose by 4.2% in April driven by increases in machinery, transport equipment and chemicals but

imports from the rest of the world fell by 2.6% - an overall rise in goods imports of 0.7%.

This reflects the historically high squeeze on real household incomes as inflation far outpaces the forecast 5% growth in average earnings for the year.

With inflation forecast to race ahead of wages, the BCC is concerned about a dip in consumer spending which would further impact businesses and hamper growth. They forecast that if trends continue, inflation will only return to the Bank of England’s target rate at the end of 2024, implying a prolonged period of difficulty for the UK.

Conversely UK goods exports accelerated in April 2022 with increases in exports to the EU rising by 8.1% (£1.2bn) and to the rest of the world by 6.5% (£0.9bn). Main factors in increased goods exports to the EU were machinery, transport equipment and fuels (gas and crude oil).

Food, chemicals, and material manufactures exports to the EU remained flat in April 2022. OBR forecasts for UK export growth in 2022 were 9% and 7% in imports. Imports of goods from the EU rose by 4.2% in April driven by increases in machinery, transport equipment and chemicals but imports from the rest of the world fell by 2.6% - an overall rise in goods imports of 0.7%. There was a reduction in cars, electrical machinery and other manufactured goods from China.

On a more positive note, and to help companies export and import, I have previously mentioned our training packages. I am very pleased to say that coming very shortly will be our new offer of 11 nationally accredited international trade courses with candidates completing six or more courses being awarded the BCC Foundation Award in International Trade, once they have taken and passed a test following each course. Over 5000 candidates have attended the programmes since 2013. Achieving this award has assisted companies going through their AEO application. Being in possession of the award enables companies to demonstrate to HMRC that they have the necessary competences to apply for Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) Registration. One company reported that “The BCC Accredited Trade Training courses developed my all-round international trade knowledge and allowed my company to become AEO registered.”

The 11 courses comprise: · Understanding Exporting · INCOTERMs · Export Documentation · Methods of Payments · Documentary Letters of Credit · Import Procedures · Customs Procedures and

Documentation · Preference Rules of Origin · Agents and Distributors · Inward and Outward Processing · Understanding Commodity Codes

These courses equip international traders with the essential skills invaluable to small and large businesses alike.

Finally, we have been made aware that a number of UK Certificates of Origin have been rejected by various customs authorities, notably Russia and Azerbaijan, as they have been unable to verify these on the International Chamber of Commerce website. Certificates prepared on one of the online platforms, such as ecert, are automatically uploaded and can be certified easily. Manual documents cannot be uploaded.

It is expected that going forward more countries will increase their use of the ICC verification. Therefore, to avoid unnecessary, and potentially costly, delays can I please encourage ALL exporters to move to online platforms.

Meteorologically summer is now upon us. May I take this opportunity to wish you all pleasant breaks, whatever you are doing or wherever you are going and come back refreshed for the undoubted challenges ahead. Don’t forget we are here to help.

With inflation forecast to race ahead of wages, the BCC is concerned about a dip in consumer spending which would further impact businesses and hamper growth. They forecast that if trends continue, inflation will only return to the Bank of England’s target rate at the end of 2024, implying a prolonged period of difficulty for the UK.