Q1 2024 Manhattan Market Report

NEW YORK CITY MARKET REPORT | Q1 2024

The Manhattan real estate market showed signs of a nascent recovery early in first quarter of 2024, potentially suggesting a bottoming process after a multi-quarter slowdown. While Q1 sales largely reflect deals made during the slower winter months, an upshift in the market from depressed lows late last year is apparent on a real-time basis. As a result, the advantages previously held by buyers are slowly diminishing, leading to a more balanced market environment.

The median price per square foot came in at $1,303, a decline of 3.1% from $1,343 last quarter and a drop of 9.3% from $1,437 last year. The median sales price for Manhattan properties during Q1 was $1,052,500, an 8.5% decrease from $1,150,000 in Q4 and a 4.3% decrease from $1,100,000 last year. Similarly, the average sales price ticked down to $1,901,580, a 5.6% fall from Q4’s $2,014,226 and a 8.5% decline from last year’s $2,079,141. The depth of price declines in resale condos, a precise but lagging measure, was more muted than the overall market, with the median price per square foot dipping 0.7% from Q4 to $1,360, and dropping 6.1% from last year. The downward move in price action is representative of the continued slide in deal volume over the last year and a half.

It took 113 days to secure a contract in Q1, up 34.5% from Q4 and 2.7% from last year, while the salesto-list ratio came in at 94.4%, essentially unchanged from the previous quarter and last year, supporting the thesis that this market has seen the bottom.

Entering the second quarter of 2024, sellers should see a slight improvement in the market environment. After an exhaustive downcycle of below-trend deal activity and declining prices, the busier nature of the spring market may see a return to equilibrium akin to the pre-pandemic marketplace. At the same time, with rates, elections, and the economy continuing to weigh on buyers' minds, we expect market uncertainty to linger, which may result in less dynamic movements in prices and volume, given the seasonal nature of the marketplace

Steven James, President and Chief Executive Officer

Prepared by:

Steven James, President and Chief Executive Officer, stevenjames@bhhsnyp com

MANHATTAN SUPPLY VS PENDING SALES

The Market Pulse, a seasonally adjusted ratio of demand to supply, measures market leverage and sentiment changes A rising Pulse indicates a strengthening market, while a falling Pulse indicates a weakening market The current reading of -2.0 is relatively unchanged from the previous quarter and represents a neutral/slight buyers market bias The spring season has seen a nice recovery in deal activity, but recent evidence is suggesting that we may be losing some upside momentum Overall, the Pulse suggests the market has internalized the wild swings of the pre/post-pandemic era, as well as the slowdown spurred on by historically steep interest rate hikes

Heading into the second quarter, the supply side of the ratio may prove critical if buyers remain cautious

MARKET PULSE: CO-OP vs CONDO

Breaking down the Market Pulse into coops and condos shows that Manhattan's two main property types may have found equilibrium after an extended downtrend The coop market pulse, which currently measures -2 25, is slightly down from last quarter, suggesting buyers still have a slight advantage On the other hand, the condo market, at -1 95, increased by 0 4 from the previous quarter as it continues to improve albeit at a sluggish pace As Manhattan transitions into the busier second quarter, the data suggests that these markets may finally find a bottom and potentially shift higher to a more neutral leveraged market environment.

GLOSSARY

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

Calculated by taking the middle value of the subset that includes all relevant sales prices.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SFT

Only calculated when size is available, this is the middle value of the subset that includes all relevant price per sft sales data

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Calculated by adding all final sales prices and dividing the sum by the total number of properties

DAYS ON MARKET

Calculated for sales that have listing information entered by the agent; more specifically, the contract date. This metric counts the number of days from first listing to contract signing. This report uses the median value of the subset that includes all relevant data.

SEASONAL AVERAGE

Average of all previous values for the same point in time. Only goes back one extra year to what is visible in the chart

DISCOUNT FROM ORIGINAL ASK

The median percentage difference between the original asking price and the closed sales price

DISCOUNT FROM LAST ASK

The median percentage difference between the asking price at the time of signing and the closed sales price

MARKET PULSE

A ratio of pending sales to active inventory, rises when leverage is shifting to sellers. Falls when leverage is shifting to buyers.

This report was produced and authored by Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties in partnership with UrbanDigs For questions please contact the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties Marketing Department at Contact@bhhsnyp.com or (212) 710-1900.

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