NEW YORK CITY MARKET REPORT
NEW YORK CITY MARKET REPORT | Q3 2024
The Manhattan real estate market displayed mixed but positive signs in the third quarter of 2024 as seasonal and macroeconomic trends intersected, indicating that the nascent recovery noted in earlier reports may still be in its early stages. The median and average sale prices decreased compared to the previous quarter, suggesting a temporary setback on the back of lower summer deal volume. The median sale price declined to $1.175M, down 2.1% from last quarter but up 3.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the average sale price fell to $2.011M, a 3.4% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a slight 0.6% drop from last year. The median price per square foot slipped to $1,382, marking a 1.3% quarterly decline and a 2.5% decrease annually. While the lower quarterly price movements mainly correspond to the softer summer nature of Q3, they also underscore the lackluster sentiment that is slowly dissipating after permeating the market for over two and half years.
In line with seasonality, properties took longer to sell this quarter, with days on market rising to 94 days, up 28 days from Q2, though unchanged compared to last year. Despite longer selling times, sellers managed to capture a slightly higher share of their asking prices, with the sales-to-list ratio ticking up to 95.9%, hinting at firming buyer interest even as broader conditions fluctuated.
The resale market showed varied results across condos and co-ops. Resale condos experienced a 4.8% quarterly decrease in median price but with a 5.4% annual gain. Co-ops, on the other hand, saw quarterly and yearly gains for both median and average prices, suggesting the segment may be gradually improving.
Overall, the third quarter presented a variegated picture for Manhattan’s real estate market, with gains in stability overshadowed by seasonality. Heading into Q4, with the first interest rate cut finally in the books and the promise of more to come, Q3’s firming moderation could finally signal the end of the market’s long hibernation
Steven James, President and Chief Executive Officer
Prepared by:
Steven James, President and Chief Executive Officer, stevenjames@bhhsnyp
MANHATTAN SUPPLY VS PENDING SALES
2,760
MARKET PULSE
The Market Pulse, a seasonally adjusted ratio of demand to supply, measures market leverage and sentiment changes A rising Pulse indicates a strengthening market, while a falling Pulse indicates a weakening market
The current Market Pulse flipped from negative to positive to end the quarter at +0 95 This reading continues to represent a more or less balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have the clear upper hand Still, the slight rise further suggests a market slowly strengthening, even during what is typically a slower period The resilience of the Pulse metric indicates ongoing firming in buyer activity compared to late 2023 and could portend a more active fall season
NEW LISTINGS
3,614 New listings in Q3 -4 2% YoY -27 7% Qtr
Seasonal Average
CONTRACTS SIGNED
2,381 New Contracts in Q3 +9 2% YoY -17 4% Qtr
RESALE CONDOS
RESALE CO-OPS
MARKET PULSE: CO-OP vs CONDO
Breaking down the Market Pulse by property type, condos improved to -0 67, reflecting a gain of 0 7 quarter-overquarter and 0 5 from last year, indicating increased strength Co-ops, however, ticked down to -2 53, continuing their more or less sideways trend This divergence hints that condos may lead the market's gradual recovery while co-ops maintain stability
While the market still presents challenges, the underlying metrics heading into Q4 hint at resilience as macroeconomic uncertainty fades for the time being.
CONDO -0 667
+1 7 year to date
+0 7 from last quarter
+0.5 from last year
COOP -2 533
-0 8 year to date
-0 6 from last quarter
+0.5 from last year
GLOSSARY
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
Calculated by taking the middle value of the subset that includes all relevant sales prices.
MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SFT
Only calculated when size is available, this is the middle value of the subset that includes all relevant price per sft sales data
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
Calculated by adding all final sales prices and dividing the sum by the total number of properties
DAYS ON MARKET
Calculated for sales that have listing information entered by the agent; more specifically, the contract date. This metric counts the number of days from first listing to contract signing. This report uses the median value of the subset that includes all relevant data.
SEASONAL AVERAGE
Average of all previous values for the same point in time. Only goes back one extra year to what is visible in the chart
DISCOUNT FROM ORIGINAL ASK
The median percentage difference between the original asking price and the closed sales price
DISCOUNT FROM LAST ASK
The median percentage difference between the asking price at the time of signing and the closed sales price
MARKET PULSE
A ratio of pending sales to active inventory, rises when leverage is shifting to sellers. Falls when leverage is shifting to buyers.
This report was produced and authored by Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties in partnership with UrbanDigs For questions please contact the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties Marketing Department at Contact@bhhsnyp.com or (212) 710-1900.