Skills for life redefining the role of tertiary education

5th OECD World Forum Guadalajara, Jal. Mexico. October 13, 2015

Francisco Marmolejo Tertiary Education Coordinator The World Bank fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole

@fmarmole

Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org

Strong GDP and productivity growth in early 2000s Real GDP growth and labor productivity (2000-2007) Percent (annual average)

Percent (annual average)

8

50,000 45,000

7

40,000

6

35,000

5

30,000

4

25,000 20,000

3

15,000

2

10,000

1

5,000

0

0 ECA

LAC

Real GDP growth (annual average, percent)

EAP

OECD (Europe)

OECD (Non Europe)

Real GDP per capita growth (annual average, percent)

GDP per person employed (US$ at PPP, 1990)

Source: World Development Indicators (WDI); World Bank (2014), Back To Work: Growing with Jobs in Europe and Central Asia

But GDP and productivity growth slowed down due to crisis Real GDP growth and labor productivity (2008-2012)

Percent (annual average)

Percent (annual average) 50,000

8 7

45,000

6

40,000

5

35,000

4

30,000

3

25,000

2

20,000

1

15,000

0

10,000

-1

5,000

-2

0 ECA

LAC

Real GDP growth (annual average, percent)

EAP

OECD (Europe)

OECD (Non Europe)

Real GDP per capita growth (annual average, percent)

GDP per person employed (US$ at PPP, 1990) Source: World Development Indicators (WDI); World Bank (2014), Back To Work: Growing with Jobs in Europe and Central Asia

Limited employment growth Missed opportunity to spur growth and welfare Tension exacerbated by demographic pressures

WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES

75 % 50 %

10 %

1910

2007

2050

4.75

Developing countries

8.2 1998 2050

1.18

Developed countries

1.16 0

2

4

Source: UN 1998 World Population Report

6

8

10

Japan 2050: 70 65+ yr. old persons per 100 persons aged 15-65 yr.

Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

Nearly a half of the MENA population is under twenty

Source: Richards, A Political Economy of the Middle East, 2008

Source: World Bank. World Development Report. 2015

Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960-2010

Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration

Employment Composition (simple cross country average by type of occupation; 2000-2012) OECD countries

Developing countries

60 50

40

Share in total employment (%)

50

40

Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal Routine cognitive or manual Non-routine manual

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

0 2003

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

0

10 2002

10

20

2001

20

30

2000

30

2000

Share in total employment (%)

60

Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal Routine cognitive or manual Non-routine manual

Source: WDR 2016 team, based on ILO KILM data. Skills classification follows Autor (2014).

% of 15-year olds who are functionally illiterate, scoring “below level 2” on PISA Reading Test 2012. Selected countries

Source: WB Staff calculations using OECD PISA 2012.

Source: World Development Report 2013 19

NO

58 % of employers

72 % of educators

SI

Source: Mourshed, Farrell, y Barton (2012), Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works.

Hypothesis : the labor market is demanding a combination of skills different to the ones that are being provided by the educational system

Projections of the number of 25-34 year-olds with tertiary education, 2005-2030

Note: Figures are estimates based on available data. Population estimates are based on OECD’s annual population projections Source: OECD, UNESCO, and National Statistics websites for Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa

0

.05

Density .1

.15

.2

Average rate of return to year of schooling is 10.4%

0

5

10 Rate of return

15

20

Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970-2011 In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%

Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank

Returns highest at Tertiary Level

Region

Table 3: Returns to schooling by educational level and region (latest available year between 2000-2011) Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc (PPP 2005)

N

World Middle East and North Africa

10.3 9.4

6.9 3.5

16.8 8.9

6,719 3,645

74 7

South Asia Eastern and Central Europe

9.6 8.3

6.3 4.0

18.4 10.1

2,626 6,630

4 7

High Income Economies

4.8

5.3

11.0

31,748

6

East Asia and Pacific Latin America and Caribbean

11.0 9.3

6.3 6.6

15.4 17.6

5,980 7,269

6 20

Sub-Saharan Africa

13.4

10.8

21.9

2,531

24

Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank

ď‚Ą

A one-year increase in the tertiary education stock would raise the long-run steady-state level of African GDP per capita due to factor inputs by 12.2%.

Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa.

David Bloom, David Canning and Kevin Chan.

The World Bank, 2006

Principal factor of social mobility

More education leads to:

Dr. Nikolaus Lobkowicz Citado por Olmos, L. “Algunas ideas sobre la Universidad Humanista�. Junio 2003.

A new type of students

It is a beautiful day. I want you playing outside

多Sequential? Multi-task?

Pew Internet & American Life: US educators not Netsavvy Aug 14 2002: A new study from Pew Internet & American Life indicates that 78 percent of middle and high school students in the US use the Internet.

However, most American teenagers claim that educators often don’t know how, don’t want, or aren’t able to use online tools to help them learn or enrich their studies.

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

37 63

NO YES

% Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today.

Sep. 24-98

YES NO

@fmarmole

Email: @fmarmolejo@worldbank.org

@fmarmole

Email: @fmarmolejo@worldbank.org





In the future, work will be based on the principle of “adjustment”: intelligent individuals able to combine education, interests and skills in order to become a sort of unipersonal multifunctional team.

Success will depend on the ability to “adjust”: to creatively develop or modify skills and knowledge

       

Bio-systems Engineer Performance technologist Visual Ergonomics Psycho-linguistic Cyber-librarian Bio-manufacturing Geo-environmentalist MKT Information Architect

Tissue Engineer Data Miner Pharmer Genetic Engineer Knowledge Engineer Ethno-Epidemiologist-Musician

...or from the present?



Skills (lack of ), as a major obstacle for development



Need for soft skills and high cognitive skills, in addition to good technical skills.



Limited incentives for change in developing skills



Improvement needed:  Incentives  Capacity building  Information

http://www.worldbank.org

Graduates required in today’s world

Technical Skills

 Sound humanistic preparation  General Education  Attitudes vs. skills

Algo más… Aprender a:

Fuente: José A. López Maldonado

0-5 Resolucion de problemas Resistencia

X

6-11

12-18

X

X

30+

X X

Motivacion

19-29

X

Control

X

X

X

Trabajo en equipo

X

X

Iniciativa

X

X

X

X

Confianza

X

X

X

Etica

X

X

Fuente: Guerra y Modecki (forthcoming), Social-Emotional Skills Development Across the Life Span: PRACTICE, The World Bank

52

53

World Bank STEP Surveys Measures with as much detail as feasible: 1. Skill stocks of people inside and outside labor force (supply) a. b. c. d.

Education level (ISCED) Field of study, TVET, apprentice, certificates  Performance level (reading test scores)  Reading, writing, math, IT use outside work 

2. Skills people use at work (skills jobs demand) a. b. c. d. e.

Occupation (ISCO) Education required for job (ISCED) Cognitive requirements (learning, reading, writing, math, problem solving, IT use) Interpersonal demands Physical demands, heavy technology use

   

3. Employers’ reports of skill and non-skill needs and constraints (employer survey)



STEP samples • • • •

Urban households (mostly) Random sample, working age (age 15-64) Background survey + reading assessment (some countries, based on PIAAC) Separate employer survey (some countries)

12 countries, almost all major regions (2012-2013) 1. Ghana 2. Kenya 3.

4.

5.

6.

(n=2,070) (n=1,956)

China—Yunnan (n=1,268) Lao (n=1,283) Sri Lanka (n=579) Vietnam (n=2,183)

7. Bolivia 8. Colombia 9.

10.

11.

12.

(n=1,206)

Armenia (n=972) Georgia (n=906) Macedonia (n=1,751) Ukraine (n=941)

Key points Many ways to compare workers and jobs—resist simple generalities Measure person and job characteristics on same scale if possible to permit direct person-job comparisons (not always possible, e.g. test scores) Education system and job market are related, but two distinct institutional arenas with their own drivers Job market woes may reflect job market problems, not problems with the education system Better education & training no guarantee of more & better jobs Perhaps necessary, but not clear that manufacturing jobs require high skills

In themselves, education & training don’t create jobs

Demand for labor derived from demand for products & services Skills one ingredient of complex mix of factors affecting employment, not cure-all Low employment: deficient demand or mismatch?

…National level changes are required but not sufficient…

…Tertiary Education Institutions need to embrace the change themselves.

Elliot Masie, President - The Masie Center

“While the ship is sinking –says the captain – the first priority is to save the crew, next is to avoid problems while the ship continues to sink, the third priority is to repair the ship, and lastly, the fourth priority, if time permits, is to save the passengers” Arthur Levine, president of Columbia Teachers College

Continuing doing the sme, but waiting different results

Diversifying options, but leveling the playing field.

Assuring good quality institutions.

Making post-compulsory education and training equitable and affordable.

Targeting public resources toward programs that yield high social returns.

Using innovative approaches to retain students and ensure employable graduates.

Improving secondary education.

Increasing the autonomy and cost-efficiency of institutions and the TE systems.

Arming students with information so they make smart choices.

Embracing competition – national and global.

Fostering openness and an evidence-based culture in tertiary education.

A good idea, but..

A critical need

Too complex

Means for better education

About money and control

About mobility of societies

Marginal

Mainstreamed

A priority for “tomorrow”

A priority for ”yesterday”

There is no magic formula… 

What it may work in one case

…it is not necessarily the best solution in other cases

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, …and wrong.

H. L. Mencken

“ The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be ” Paul Valéry

Francisco Marmolejo Tertiary Education Coordinator The World Bank Tel. +1 (202) 458-5927

Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org http://www.worldbank.org/education/tertiary Twitter @fmarmole