The Northern Miner July 6 2020 Issue 14

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Demand for electric vehicle raw materials to spike, UN says GREEN ENERGY

Gold miners face challenges to maintain 2019 production levels GOLD

| EV car sales expected to reach 23 million by 2030

P

Electric vehicle at a charging station in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  MARIORDO/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS BY MINING.COM STAFF

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he demand for raw materials used to manufacture rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) will grow rapidly as the importance of oil as a source of energy recedes, according to a new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). According to UNCTAD, ongoing efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions are expected to spur further investment in green energy production, which has been steady over the years, standing at around US$600 billion per year, on average. “Alternative sources of energy

such as electric batteries will become even more important as investors grow more wary of the future of the oil industry,” said Pamela CokeHamilton, UNCTAD’s director of international trade. Electric car sales have boomed in recent years, rising 65% in 2018 from the previous year to 5.1 million vehicles, and are expected to reach 23 million in 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. The report highlights the significant role of rechargeable batteries in the global transition to a low-carbon energy system. The worldwide market for cathode for lithium ion batteries, the most common rechargeable car battery,

was estimated at US$7 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US$58.8 billion by 2024, according to the report. “The rise in demand for the strategic raw materials used to manufacture electric car batteries will open more trade opportunities for the countries that supply these materials. It’s important for these countries to develop their capacity to move up the value chain,” Coke-Hamilton said. Reserves of the raw materials for car batteries are concentrated among a few countries. Nearly 50% of world cobalt reserves are in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 58% of lithium reserves are in Chile, 80% Se e GREEN ENERGY / 3

| Report says US$37 billion investment required in next five years

BY MINING.COM STAFF

rior to the coronavirus outbreak, peak gold supply was becoming a real possibility. Now, with exploration programs halted or cancelled and project disruptions hampering production, the summit is in sight, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie’s latest report. As organic growth is waning, miners are looking to buy gold through mergers and acquisitions to secure their future. So far this has failed to significantly increase production. To avoid a perpetual decline in the gold supply, the industry must see a rise in project development, the research and consulting company says. Wood Mackenzie estimates the industry will need to commission 8 million oz. (262 tonnes) of projects by 2025 to maintain 2019 production levels. This equates to roughly 44 projects, Wood Mackenzie calculates. Based on the average project capital intensity of US$4,610 per oz. gold per year, Wood Mackenzie estimates the industry must invest approximately US$37 billion on greenfield projects and restarts over the next five years. “If all our probable projects were to come online before 2025, this would almost meet the requirement to maintain 2019 production levels,” said Rory Townsend, Wood Mackenzie’s head of gold research. “The likelihood, however, is that we see some degree of slippage among a number of these assets due to permitting delays, prioritization of other capital projects and changes in scope,” he said. Where will the supply come from? “Social and governance considerations are dissuading the explora-

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tion of certain jurisdictions and the progression of identified deposits,” Townsend said. “Investment and exploration in countries such as South Africa have all but dried up, with the gold mining industry plagued by power outages, labour strikes and regulatory uncertainty. This has prompted investors and miners to consider countries they deem to be more mining-friendly.” “Ghana has been a significant beneficiary of this and overtook South Africa to become the largest gold producer in Africa in 2018,” Townsend noted. Wood Mackenzie has identified about 260 projects that gold miners and investors could turn to. “Given the size of the resource that is available to be developed, talk of peak gold supply may seem a little surprising. Crucially, however, it is not the lack of gold that is the constraint. Gold miners and investors are carefully searching for the Se e GOLD / 3 P M 4 0 0 6 9 2 4 0


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