Montana Economic Report 2015

Page 1

MONTANA

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2015

ECONOMY

A special report by the staffs of The Billings Gazette, The Helena Independent Record, The Missoulian, The Montana Standard and The Ravalli Republic

Keeping up with demand

LARRY MAYER/Billings Gazette photos

Amid the wheat glut and a decline in quality wheat, cattle are pulling the economic wagon in Montana now.

Cattle pull the economic wagon for Montana’s third-largest economy By TOM LUTEY tlutey@billingsgazette.com In Montana’s $3-billion-a-year agriculture economy, when markets are bullish, there are real cattle involved. For the fifth year in a row, Montana calf sales are hotter than a red iron brand. Prices for quality calves are double what they were seven years ago. Analysts say there simply aren’t enough cattle to keep up with world demand for beef and likely won’t be for years. It hasn’t been since the early 1950s when the U.S. Department of Agriculture record books showed fewer cattle. That’s good news for the state’s third largest private economic sector, which is rapidly cooling off after the commodities boom of 2007-2013. High wheat prices helped keep Montana’s gross domestic product growing during the recession for all but a couple months, but three straight years of abundant global supply eroded Montana’s breadwinner. Cattle are pulling the economic wagon now. “When you look at calves, the 100year trend line, adjusted for today’s prices, should be $1.52 a pound. The nation’s like $1.90 now. Montana is

Wheat is transferred into a truck as Dallas and Ashley Green operate DG Harvesting on a farm near Forsyth.

about what you would call $2, probably because the cattle here are better,” said Gary Brester, Montana State University agriculture economist. That price, 125 percent of the longterm average, is a staggering benefit to the state’s economy. In fact, few states have benefited more economically from high cattle prices than Montana. That’s because currently the hottestselling cattle in the marketplace are

calves and Montana is what’s known as a “cow-calf” state. There are more than 2.6 million cows and calves, basically mothers and their offspring, dotting the Montana landscape. The population has increased by roughly 100,000 since 2006 and calves are fetching the best market prices, as high as $2.79 a pound currently, more than double what ranchers received just six years ago.

While Montana has added calves since 2006, other states have seen dramatic declines in cattle of all kinds because of drought and rising business expenses like labor, feed and higher rents for grazing land. Texas has lost 1.17 million beef cows, mostly due to drought. Montana’s neighboring states have each lost at least 30,000 head during that time. The biggest price loser for Montana agriculture is wheat, by far the state’s largest crop at more than 5.52 million acres planted in 2015. Those planted acres have been relatively flat since 2009. Wheat prices have been all over the map. Farmers will average about $5 a bushel for their crop this year, which is on the money when past prices are adjusted for today’s value. Price losses in wheat are no small matter for Montana, where the crop contributes more than $1 billion a year to the state economy. That $5 a bushel average wheat price is buoyed by contract sales with terms agreed to months ahead of harvest. Prices have fallen significantly since. By fall, only the best spring wheat was fetching $5 a bushel. Winter wheat was selling for as low as $3.28. Please see Cattle, H4

Health care still a major driver of Billings economy The biggest sector in the state’s largest city By ZACH BENOIT zbenoit@billingsgazette.com BILLINGS — During the summer of 2014, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock stood before a crowd of more than 200 business and health officials from Montana and Wyoming and told them just how big of a role health care plays in the state’s economy. “It’s no secret that here in Montana the health care industry is, and will continue to be, a crucial part of our state’s economy,” he said, opening the Big Sky Business Health Summit in Billings. Eighteen months later, that’s especially true in the Billings area, home to the state’s largest medical community, which includes two regional hospitals and a county health agency. In 2014 Billings’ health care industry employed an estimated 13,000 people — roughly 16 percent of the city’s employment — and accounted for more than $1.2 billion in direct and indirect payroll, including $641 million in wages to health care workers, which represents about 20 percent of the total wages in town. “Billings has continued to become a hub for acute-care medicine, sub-specialty care, so we continue to see that growth,” said

Billings Gazette

Billings Clinic is the largest employer in Yellowstone County, with roughly 4,000 employees paying an estimated 9 percent of the residential property taxes in the county.

Jim Duncan, president of the Billings Clinic Foundation. The majority of that radiates from a medical corridor at the north end of downtown that holds the sprawling main campuses of both St. Vincent Healthcare and Billings Clinic, two regional hospitals that offer a wide range of services and oversee facilities or clinics scattered across Billings and Montana. “It’s quite a footprint when you look at it,” said Steve Loveless, St. Vincent CEO. “As we see

more health care services and as we grow, it shows that it contributes greatly to the community.” Billings Clinic is the largest employer in Yellowstone County, with roughly 4,000 employees paying an estimated 9 percent of the residential property taxes in the county. Expansions have been a major driving force for both hospitals, both on their home campuses and throughout the state. St. Vincent, for example, has sites in the Heights, Grand Avenue, Shiloh Road and Broadwater Avenue in Billings, in addition to facilities in Laurel, Red Lodge and Hardin. It also helps maintain and operate hospitals in Miles City and Butte through its parent organization, the Sisters of Charity of Leavenworth. Its Billings facilities make up more than 863,000 square feet. Conversely, Billings Clinic has off-site facilities in the Heights and West End, five ExpressCare clinics at four locations across Billings, a West End assisted-living facility and primary or specialty care clinics in Bozeman, Columbus, Miles City, Red Lodge and Cody; manages 11 critical access hospitals across Montana and recently took over management of Community Health in Missoula through a joint venture with Tennessee-based RegionalCare Hospital Partners. Please see Health, H4

HANNAH POTES/Billings Gazette

DropTrip Founder Doug Warner developed a company that utilizes peer-topeer networking to transport goods.

Bozeman’s economy is state’s strongest, fastest growing By TOM LUTEY tlutey@billingsgazette.com BOZEMAN — There are a lot of gee-whiz startups in this town cohabitated by college and technology, but the latest, Drop Trip, a company that turns travelers into couriers for hire, could be the slickest yet. Roughly a year old, the company already employs 10 people. Its service is connecting customers who have something to ship with travelers who have room for an extra load in their pickup, their roof rack, or even a backpack on an overseas trip. Welcome, Bozeman, to the new “shared economy,” in which seemingly anyone can make a buck by putting their underused assets for hire primarily through online networking.

Bozeman’s economy is cooking. The $1 billion sale of local tech giant RightNow Technologies to Oracle in 2011 is still paying dividends as former RightNow employees who benefited from sale continue to invest in new businesses. Wages are increasing faster in Bozeman at 5 percent, than the rest of Montana’s 2 percent rise. Construction has risen from the mat after being coldcocked by the recession. Montana State University has set a record for enrollment. The relationship between the MSU, the community’s largest employer, and local businesses is palpable. Drop Trip’s story is Bozeman’s in a nutshell, launched with RightNow sale proceeds, incubated at Montana State Please see Bozeman, H4


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