BKV Group - Senior Living Resident Safety

SENIOR LIVING RESIDENT SAFETY

SENIOR LIVING RESIDENT SAFETY CREATING A RESILIENT COMMUNITY, REDUCING COSTS, AND BEING AN AGENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE.

Co-Authored by:

David Banta, BKV Group Alexis Denton, Perkins Eastman Vassar Byrd, Rose Villa

Design for Aging an AIA Knowledge Community

CONTENTS Why This Topic?

5

Risks

20

Resilience Plan

38

Solutions

62

Costs

90

Conclusion

100

WHY THIS

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S TOPIC?

4

Recent research (UN IPCC report) estimates we may hit 1.5 degrees C between 2030 and 2040; this is the temperature threshold the Paris Agreement set forth as the goal.

Average temperature has risen 1.1 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution.

That’s an average across the globe, with some areas warming faster than others.

Earth will keep warming and the rate will likely increase.

Note: Da

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30-YEAR TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH 20TH CENTURY AVERAGE

ate not available for Alaska and Hawaii. Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information

6

The focus here is on adaptation and how we modify our environments to address rising temperatures and their corresponding impacts.

This is not about climate change or global warming. The earth is changing and we need to be prepared.

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Rising temperatures mean an increase in threats from the climate such as: More extreme weather events – storms that are stronger, last longer, are more frequent, and/or more irregular.

Both more water and less water, meaning more floods and also more drought.

Increased heat during summer and extreme cold in winter, meaning more extreme weather events (see: wildfires in California, freezes in Texas, heatwaves in Pacific Northwest, etc).

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East coast is seeing more tornado warnings than storms now.

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Ultimately this means more costly events.

1980-20 Drought Count Wildfire Count

22

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20

16

Number of Events

This graphic shows the steady rise in billion dollar events since 1980. Note, this is only through 2018 (2019-21 was in fact worse than these figures, and some of these earlier recorded storms in today’s dollars would be in this category).

12

8

4

0

1980

1982

1984

1986

018 BILLION DOLLAR DISASTER EVENTS Flooding Count

Freeze Count

Severe Storm Count

Tropical Cyclone Count

Winter Storm Count

Combined Disaster Cost

Costs 95% CI

5-Year Ave Costs

$450 $400 $350 $300

$200

Cost in Billions

$250

$150 $100 $50

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

$0

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RESILIENCE

The capability of a strained body to recov

its size and shape after deformation cause

especially by compressive stress; an ability

recover from or adjust easily to misfortune change.

Merriam Webster

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ver

ed

y to

e or

This report’s focus will be about how we respond to the increased threats and risks.

But first, what is resilience? This is a word we’ve all lived with this past year and a half, and key to it’s definition is: RECOVERY

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CLIMATE RESILIENCE

Climate resilience is the ability to anticipa prepare for, and respond to hazardous events, trends, or disturbances related to climate. Improving climate resilience

involves assessing how climate change wi

create new, or alter current, climate relat

risks, and taking steps to better cope with these risks.

Center for Climate and Energy Solutions

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ate,

ill

ted

h

Climate resilience is often associated with acute events such as heavy downpours, hurricanes, or wildfires – that will become more frequent or intense as the climate changes. However, good resilience planning also accounts for chronic events like rising sea levels, worsening air quality, and population migration.

16

CLIMATE RESILIENCE DE

Climate resilient design > sustainable desi

Climate resilient design is the intentional d

of buildings, landscapes, communities, an

regions that respond to natural and huma made disasters and disturbances - as well

as long term changes resulting from clima

change - including sea level rise, increase frequency of heat waves, and regional drought.

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ESIGN

ign

design

nd

“Climate resilient design” refers to the practice of how we modify our environments to be more climate resilient.

anl

ate

ed

18

RISKS

WHAT ARE THE RISKS WE NEED TO DES

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SIGN TO?

20

GEOGRAPHIC RISKS N a ti o na l Some are going to be common throughout the US, such as heat risk, but most are going to be specific to a state, county, and even an individual parcel of land.

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WHAT TO CALL CLIMATE CHANGE WHERE YOU LIVE Intensity shows risk level from low (lighter) to very high (darer)

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GEOGRAPHIC RISKS C a se S tud y : C l a c k a m a s Co u n t y (O R) • Extreme Rainfall: HIGH • Wildfire: MEDIUM • Water Stress: LOW • Heat Stress: LOW • Hurricane: NONE • Sea Level Rise: NONE Recent extreme heatwave demonstrates that even low heat stress means that major events are possible.

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GEOGRAPHIC RISKS C a se S tud y : W a s h i n g t o n , DC • Hurricane: HIGH • Sea Level Rise: HIGH • Water Stress: MEDIUM • Wildfire: MEDIUM • Heat Stress: LOW

FLOODING FROM S

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STORM SURGE NOT JUST RAINFALL

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RISKS TO OWNER/ OPERATORS Li a b i l i ty .

RISING FREQUENC

Insur a b i l i ty .

The number of natural hydrological events suc

Staff p r od ucti vi ty a n d mo r a l e .

Oper a ti ng cos ts .

Sup p l y cha i n d i s ru p t i o n s (fo od , etc).

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Geographic

Meteor

CY OF NATURAL DISASTERS

disasters has been rising rapidly in recent decades, particularly ch as floods

rological

Hydrological

Climatological

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HEALTH RISKS Re si d ent a nd s ta ff h e a l t h a n d w e l l b e i n g : • Stress during event.

• Comfort and livability.

• Death.

Effect on r es i d ent a n d s t a ff h e a l t h a nd wel l - b ei ng : • Seniors will be disproportionately affected by higher temperatures and weather events.

• More susceptible to temperature changes.

• Decreased ability to recover quickly.

• Poor health outcomes after an evacuation.

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30

FINANCIAL RISKS Insur a nce p r em i u ms a n d c o v e r a g e a mo u nt s .

Climate change is causing insurance companies to charge higher premiums on insurance, making the number of coverage options much lower.

Imp a ct to p r o f or m a .

Climate change yields much more fluctuation, and therefore cost, putting pro forma at risk.

Imp a ct to f i na ncia l i n fr a s t r u c t u r e s .

Tied to disaster preparedness plans knowing it is very costly to make repairs after events, and it can be difficult to find labor and materials at a premium.

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MARKETING RISKS Re sea r ch s hows po t e n t i a l r e s i d e n t s w a n t to l ea ve a l a s ti ng , p o s i t i v e l e g a c y a n d cons i d er envi r on m e n t a l s t e w a r d s h i p t o b e p a rt of tha t.

Public opinion is that this topic will become a huge marketing issue, with residents starting to demand sustainability and resiliency be addressed in their living environments.

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REGULATORY N ew, p r op os ed r e g u l a t i o n c h a n g e s a r e p ushi ng towa r d b u i l d i n g c o d e s w i t h n o w some s ta tes r eq u i r i n g : • Electrification.

• Net zero ready design.

• Increased wind loads.

• Effective response to sea level rise.

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RESILIENCE PLA

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AN

38

CLIMATE RESILIENCE PLAN • Identify potential threats and stressors.

• Establish resilient principles.

RISK = VUL

• Define design goals with a step by step guide for new developments or existing communities; similar to longrange planning • Develop a framework for risk assessment and strategies, and describe concrete resilient strategies.

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Sensitivity Exposure

LNERABILITY x THREAT

Adaptive Capacity

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PROCESS Focused on assessing the particular risks in an area, and addressing them through a series of potential, prioritized solutions.

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STEP 1: Eng a g e exp er ts t o fo r m a t e a m : • Architects/Engineers.

• Owner/Operator (see: marketing, facilities, etc.)

• Local jurisdiction.

Engagement of local authorities goes beyond our normal conversations, and into emergency response plans and local hospital response plans.

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TEAM RESILIENCE 44

STEP 2: Id enti f y thr ea ts an d s t r e s s o r s : • Specific to community location.

• Acute or chronic.

• Fast-moving events or coming on slowly.

• Natural or human-caused.

A key element of a resilience plan includes defining vulnerabilities and threats for that particular geography. These can be acute or chronic, localized or large-scale, and stem from natural disasters or human activity. They can be fast-moving events, such as hurricanes, or come on slowly and be prolonged, such as chronic water and food shortages. Some exist regardless of location, such as heat stress, but others are geographically distinct, including floods and wildfires.

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P S

SUMMER WATER DEFICIT MAP: ALL SCENARIOS Last updated last year

Puget Sound

Summer Water Deficit: Historical Historical (inches) +9 to +13 +4 to +9 +2 to +4 -0 to +2 -2 to 0 Other

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STEP 3: Post- m or tem on r e c e n t e v e n t s : • What has recently happened?

• Listening to residents and staff.

• Identifying what could happen.

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STEP 4: D evel op r es i l i ent d e s i g n g o a l s .

Examples: • Maintain a comfortable indoor temperature during the winter in the event of a power outage.

• Ensure that a building exterior can withstand hurricane force winds.

• Maintain optimal indoor air quality during a smoke event.

Resilient design goals may include maintaining a comfortable indoor temperature during the winter in the event of a power outage, or ensuring that a building exterior can withstand hurricane force winds, or making certain that optimal indoor air quality can be maintained during a smoke event.

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STEP 5:

D evel op the f r a m e w o r k r i s k a s s e s s me n t a n d s t rat e g

• This can be a tool to prioritize the goals and ultimately the strate

• Key to this tool is prioritizing based on ability of residents to cope

0 Accept Little or No

LIKELIHOOD

Improbable

Possible

Probable

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Risk Unlikely to Occur

Risk Will Likely Occur

Risk Will Occur

g ie s matri x.

egies.

e with change.

IMPACT

able Effect

1

2

3

Tolerable

Unacceptable

Intolerable

Effects are Felt but

Serious Impact to Course of Action and Outcome

Could Result in Disasters

Not Critical

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STEP 6: D evel op r es i l i ent d e s i g n p r i n c i p l e s : Resilient design principles typically fall into three categories: 1. Adaptability and responsiveness to respond to different environmental conditions.

2. Diversity and redundancy in building systems and services.

3. Durability in terms of the environment’s ability to last.

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STEP 7: I de n ti fy concr ete s tr a te g i e s a n d s o l u t i o n s t o a c h ieve res i l i ent d es i g n g o a l s : Concrete resilient strategies to be either incorporated into the design or done as a separate project.

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STEP 8: Id enti f y a nd a s s i g n c o s t s :

NPV

• Do a cost/benefit analysis.

• Incorporate into capital budget.

• Schedule projects.

• Incorporate costs into capital budget. This is not a separate item, but part of a normal operating budget.

Solar+Storage+Dispa Generator Micro-grid (with value of resilien

Solar-onl

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- SOLAR-ONLY VS. FINANCED MICROGRID

atchable d nce)

ly System

$0

$100

$200

$300 $400 Thousand Dollars

$500

$600

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NEW CONSTRUCTION When to d o thi s ?

For new construction, resilience planning can be done as part of programming or immediately after.

Some solutions will affect things such as building orientation and massing, thus resilience planning should be complete before concept design.

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Building systems should be reviewed, building envelope discussions, cost benefit analysis, meetings with local authorities.

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EXISTING BUILDINGS When to d o thi s ?

For existing buildings, resilience planning can be done anytime, or during any repositioning or strategic/master planning.

539 Sunlight Hours Thermal Sensation: 56.79º F

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268 Sunlight Hours Thermal Sensation: 42.97º F

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SOLUTIONS

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TYPES OF SOLUTIONS When i t com es to d e s i g n , w e ’r e l ooking a t op er a t i o n a l s o l u t i o n s a n d d esi g n s ol uti ons .

It’s important to remember that there are building solutions and community solutions, and that resiliency is not any single solution, concept, or perspective. Resiliency is a multifaceted lens which balances proactivity and reactivity to inform solutions to disruptions.

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OPERATIONAL Pl a nni ng a nd p r e p a r e d n e s s n e e d t o b e b as e d on th r ea ts . I t ca n n o t b e g e n e r i c , a n d i n c l u de i te ms s uch a s m at e r i a l a n d fo o d s o u r c i n g, a nd b y uti l i z i ng da t a c o n d u c t p r o a c t i v e an d p red i cti ve m a i nte n a n c e w h i l e e n g a g i n g resi d ents .

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DESIGN STRATEGIES Design strategies fall into seven buckets.

Imp or ta nce of ea c h o f t h e s e d e t e r mi n e d by lo c at io

ENERGY IN DE P E N DE N CE

AIR QUA L IT Y

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WA I NDEPEN

R E S O U RC E S T O R A GE

on:

A TER N DENCE

RENEWABLE R ES O U R CE S

PA SSI V E SYSTE M S

CO M M U N IT Y SUPPORT

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ENERGY INDEPENDENCE Re d uce d ep end e n c e o n c o m p l e x b u i l d i n g contr ol s a nd s y s t e m s .

Incor p or a ti ng r ed u n d a n t /r e l i a b l e e l e c t r i cal system s wi th b a c k - u p c a p a c i t y .

Inte g r a ti ng ener g y e ffi c i e n t s y s t e ms .

Provi d e m a nua l o v e r r i d e s i n c a s e o f ma l functi on or te mp o r a r y p o w e r o u t a g e s .

Instal l hea t p um p s fo r h e a t i n g a n d c o o l i ng.

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WATER INDEPENDENCE C ons er va ti on a nd e ffi c i e n c y .

Carry out water conservation practices rely on annually replenish water resources, including, harvested rainwater, as the primary or back-up water supply.

Re d und a nt s up p l y a n d s t o r a g e .

Provide redundant water supplies or water storage for use during emergencies. For deep-well pumps, provide either stand-alone so electricity or hand pumping options where possible. Where there option for on-site water, consider water storage that can gravity-f to building.

D i sp os a l d ur i ng e me r g e n c i e s .

• Consider an option for human waste disposal in the event of non-operating municipal wastewater system. This could include composting toilets and waterless urinals.

• Design vegetated roofs and rainwater bioswales to reduce the urban heat island effect and manage stormwater.

• Design and build (or rebuild) physical infrastructure, such as culverts, storm sewers, roadways, and bridges, to handle increa stormwater flows.

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ed r

olar is no feed

e

ased

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RENEWABLE RESOURCES Opti mi z e us e of o n - s i t e r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y .

D evel op r eg i onal , r e n e w a b l e p o w e r - g e n erat io n system s to ens ur e a m o r e s t a b l e , d i s t r i b u t e d el ectr i ca l g r i d a n d m i c r o - g r i d s .

Opti mi z e r enewab l e e n e r g y s o u r c e s , i n c l udin g: • Solar • Even small scale wind • Waste heat recovery

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S

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RENEWABLE RESOURCES Use a nd s our ci ng o f: • Food • Water • Energy

Resource use and sourcing is focused on redundant sources like materials, food and water, and energy, having the ability to store them, and sourcing them locally so the supply chain is less likely to be disrupted during a disaster.

With water, for example, it is beneficial for a building to be as water independent as possible. This means incorporating redundant water supplies, such as rainwater capture, water storage, and greywater reuse, all while trying to reduce water needs.

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S

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PASSIVE SYSTEMS

Pa ssi ve hea ti ng a n d c o o l i n g .

A d voca ti ng f or ve r n a c u l a r d e s i g n p r a c t i c e s .

Pa ssi ve hous e p r in c i p l e s .

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By r pre cen with

relying on vernacular design practices that were evalent before the advent of air conditioning and ntral heating, we can combine these design strategies h modern materials to optimize resilient design.

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PASSIVE SYSTEMS

Exa m p l e: sh o w i n g p a s s iv e s t r a t e g ie s f or a p ro jec t A ri zo n a – sh ade s t r uc t ur e s a nd s t r a t e g ic p la nt ing.

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in

.

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PASSIVE SYSTEMS

Exa m p l e of a b uil d i n g d e s i g n to us e p a s s i ve co o l i n g s y s t e m s :

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Co ori

ommunity is located in a hot climate so buildings are iented to capture prevailing winds for cooling effect

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PASSIVE SYSTEMS Pa ssi ve hous e d e s i g n c o mp r i s e s a s e t of d es i g n p r i nci p l e s u s e d t o a t t a i n a q ua nti f i a b l e a nd r i g o r o u s l e v e l o f e n e r g y effi ci ency wi thi n a s p e c i fi c q u a n t i fi a b l e comf or t l evel . A p a s s i v e b u i l d i n g i s d e s i g n e d a nd b ui l t i n a cco r d a n c e w i t h t h e s e fi v e b ui l d i ng s ci ence p r i n c i p l e s : 1. Employs continuous insulation throughout its entire envelope without any thermal bridging.

2. The building envelope is extremely airtight, preventing infiltration of outside air and loss of conditioned air.

3. Employs high-performance windows (double or triplepaned windows depending on climate and building type) and doors - solar gain is managed to exploit the sun’s energy for heating purposes in the heating season and to minimize overheating during the cooling season.

4. Uses some form of balanced heat- and moisture-recovery ventilation.

5. Uses a minimal space conditioning system.

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AIR QUALITY Smok e, m ol d , m o i s t u r e , o ff- g a s s i n g .

Bui l di ng envel ope t i g h t n e s s .

Fi l trati on.

Ma te r i a l s a nd a pp l i a n c e s .

Indoor air quality is a determinant of health outcomes; it can be influence by appliances such as gas stoves, materials that off-gas, and wildfire events. The tightness of the building envelope and proper filtration are key to keeping indoor air quality healthy.

Picture right is taken in Berkeley California during 2020 wildfire season at 10am – the streetlights stayed on all day and air quality was extremely hazardous.

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COMMUNITY PARTNERS

Creating relationships with the outside comm resilience because neighbors can be relied

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SHIPS

munity make for greater d on during emergencies.

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COSTS

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BEST PRACTICES C a n’ t jus t l ook a t i t o n c e a s c o s t s a r e c h an gin g very q ui ck l y d ue t o m a t e r i a l a n d r e g u l a t o ry cha ng es .

A sk for exp er t a d v i c e / d o t h e r e s e a r c h .

C a p i ta l b ud g et l i n e i t e m s h o u l d b e s t a n d ard op er a ti ng p r oced u r e .

EXPERT AD

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DVICE

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UP FRONT COSTS Pa ssi ve hous e can c o s t 3 - 1 0 % mo r e than s ta nd a r d p r a c t i c e s b u t c o s t s a r e conti nua l l y com in g d o w n y e a r o v e r ye a r , p l us g ener a t e g r e a t e r s u s t a i n a b l e returns .

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ON-GOING COSTS Re d uces cons ump t i o n a n d a s s o c i a t e d c o s t s f o r wate r a nd el ectr i c i t y .

D ecr ea s ed r i s k as s o c i a t e d w i t h d i s a s t e r co s t s .

Run a l i f e cy cl e c o s t a n a l y s i s d u r i n g d e s i gn .

Life Cycle Assessments: LCA tools are software programs, standards, and guidance documents. They are one of the best mechanisms for architects and other building professionals to understand the energy use and other environmental impacts associated with all the phases of a building’s life cycle: manufacturing, construction and transportation, use, end of life, and material recovery.

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M A N U F A CT U R IN G

US E

T R A N S P O R T A T IO N

CO N S T R U CT IO N

E N D O F L IF E

RECOV E R Y

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TRENDS N ew ty p es of f i nan c i n g i n c l u d e g r e e n b o nd fi na nci ng .

Exp ect to s ee m o r e fe d e r a l a n d s t a t e i n c e n t ive s for res i l i ent m ea s u r e s w h i c h a r e i n c l u d e d in c u rre n t fed er a l b ud g et p r o p o s a l s .

Exp ect i ns ur a nce p r e m i u m s t o b e furth er ti ed to r es i l i e n t fe a t u r e s i n t h e future.

• Green bond financing • Federal and state incentives • PACE Financing: is a means used in the United States of America of financing energy efficiency upgrades, disaster resiliency improvements, water conservation measures, or renewable energy installations of residential, commercial, and industrial property owners; not all states participate as shown in graphic.

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HOW PACE WORKS:

t

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CONCLUSION

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N

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WHAT NOW? Re si l i ence i s : • marketable and necessary.

• an inherent part of wellness.

It does n’ t need to b e e x p e n s i v e u p fr o n t , a nd s a ves m oney i n t h e l o n g - t e r m .

N ow i s the ti m e f o r s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g to b e r es i l i ent.

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WELL BUILDING STANDA Wha t i s i t?

• The WELL Building Standard® is a performance-based system for measuring, certifying, and monitoring features of the built environment that impact human health and wellbeing, through air, water, nourishment, light, fitness, comfort, and mind.

• WELL is managed and administered by the International WELL Building Institute (IWBI), a public benefit corporation whose mission is to improve human health and wellbeing through the built environment.

First standard to focus solely on the health and wellness building occupants.

100 performance metrics, design strategies, and policie

Based on research on the effect of spaces on individual

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ARD

m

h

s of

es.

ls

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WELL PRINCIPLES FALL IN

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NTO SEVEN CATEGORIES:

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RESOURCES

AIA COMMITTEE ON THE ENVIRONMENT https:// www.aia.org/resources/6077668 framewor

EXCELLENCE US CLIMATE RESILIENCE TOOLKIT https://toolkit.climate.gov/

RESILIENT DESIGN INSTITUTE https://www.resilientdesign.org

STATES AT RISK ORG https://statesatrisk.org

There are numerous resources out there

Industry

and more are more are available every

valuable

day

entities

cities ha

online w

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rk for design

y organizations such as AIA present

e information as are government with many large counties and

ave resilience plans available

with reliable/accurate content.

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ENRICHING LIVES AND STRENGTHENING COMMUNITIES

C HI C A GO

DA L L A S

209 South LaSalle Street The Rookery, Suite 920 Chicago, IL 60604

1412 Main Street Adolphus Tower, Suite 700 Dallas, TX 75202

P 312.279.0470

P 469.405.1196

H ANOI , VI ET NAM

MI NNEAPOL I S

WASHING TO N, D C

Phuong Mai Ward, Dong Da District

222 North Second Street Long & Kees Building, Suite 101 Minneapolis, MN 55401

1054 31st Street NW Canal Square, Suite 410 Washington, DC 20007

P 612.339.3752

P 202.595.3173

No 1 Dao Duy Anh Street Ocean Park Building, Suite 15, Room 1508 Hanoi, Vietnam P 469.405.1240

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