THE GREAT SINGAPORE RESET
FollowingPrimeMinisterLawrenceWong’sfirst NationalDayRallyspeech,whereexactlydo Singaporeansstand?
ThenextGeneralElection willbeadistinctonefor Singaporeans.Forthe firsttimeinitsnearly60yearhistory,thePAPwill askSingaporeansto electaPMwhoisneither amemberoftheLee family,noramemberof Singapore’soriginal PioneerGeneration.
Willthisprovetobeaninflectionpoint forSingaporeans,orsimplythelatest chapterinthelongandsuccessful historyforthePAP?
Whilethesignsinearly2024Blackbox pollingshowedtheGovernmenttobe challengedoffthebackofinflation, housingpricerisesandvariouspolitical scandalsandindiscretions,the appointmentofLawrenceWongas PrimeMinisterinMay2024appearedto givethePAPapositivebump.Ourlatest quarterlySensingSGcommunity sentimentshowedsomereboundforthe SingaporeGovernmentandenthusiastic acceptanceofthenewPM,although mostSingaporeansacknowledgedthey stillneededtogettoknowhimproperly Sowheredothingsstandnow?The PrimeMinistergavehismaidenNational
DayRally(NDR)speechon18August andfivedayslateralsoannouncedthat theGovernmentislookingatfurther measurestotacklecost-of-living concernsandtakebettercareof seniorsThesewillbethefocusareasfor thenearfuture.
HowDoSingaporeansFeel AboutPMWongPost-NDR?
Generally,SingaporeansfeelPMWong’s performancetodatehasbeendecent–17%rateitas“excellent”while52%rateit as“good”Only4%assesshis performancetodateas“poor”or“very poor”
However,justoveroneinfour(27%)think hisperformancehasbeen“soso/average”,andthisrisesto35% amongthoseover50yearsold.Given thatthisgrouprepresentthebulkofthe votingelectorate,thereisstillsomework todoinwinningthemoverIntheheat ofanelectioncampaign,thekey audienceislikelytobeolder Singaporeanvoters,manyofwhom havefeltthebruntofrecentcostof livingpressuresandarealsomorelikely tocompareandcontrastthenew4G leadershipteamwithprevious successfulGovernments
Incontrast,youngerSingaporeanadults (21-34)havetakentoLawrenceWong quickly,suggestinghispersonalityand approachappearstobeworking amongstthiscohort.
Furthermore,newandshinycountsfor something(askKamalaHarris)-82%of SingaporeanspolledbyBlackboxsay theyagreethatLawrenceWong“offers somethingfresh”asPrimeMinisterand “expecthimtodowellatthenext GeneralElection”
HowDidTheNewPM’sFirst NDRSpeechGo?
Overall,SingaporeansscoredthePM’s firstNDRSpeechasolid“B”Twointhree (66%)saidthespeechmettheir expectationswhileonly15%saidit exceededtheirexpectations
Ofthekeyannouncementsmadeduring thespeech-therewereatleastnineSingaporeansweremostimpressed with(inorderofpositiverating):
Thenew10-weeksharedspousal parentalweekentitlement,however, scoredhighestofallthenew announcementsamongstunder35s Thisshouldbepositivenewsforthe Governmentasitcontinuesitsneverendingquesttoencouragelarger familiesandarrestdownward populationpressures.
ThePM’sNDRspeechwasalsonotable foritscalltoactionforchangeThePM said,inpart,thatforSingaporeans “realisingournewambitionswill requireamajorreset–amajorresetin policies,tobesure;butalsoaresetin ourattitudes.”
Singaporeansappeartohavetakenthis calltoactiononboardandare embracingit:
90%agreethat“nowisagoodtime forSingaporetoresetitsdirection,so wearebetterpreparedforthe future”;
Inresponsetoahypothetical rebuttalthat“Singaporedoesnot needaresetbecausewehavedone wellandshouldnotbetryingnew thingsandriskingfuturesuccess”–40%findthiscounter-argument convincing,while60%findit unconvincing
Butvotersaremoreevenlydividedon thelastpartofthePM’sresetstatement –hisargumentthatSingaporeansalso needtoresettheirattitudes.While53% findthisargumentconvincing,47%find itunconvincingItisapparentthatthe
Thenew10-weeksharedspousalparentalweek entitlementscoredhighestofallthenew announcementsamongSingaporeansunder35.
PMandtheGovernmentstillhavetheir workcutoutmakingthecasethat Singaporeanstooneedtopressthe resetbuttonwhenitcomestohowthey thinkaboutthings
Overall,thePMandthePAPcanfeel pleasedwiththeNDRspeech.Whilenot everythinglandedperfectly,the signallingofaneedforaSingapore resetwasarguablyriskyandcouldhave generatedmoreimmediatequestions andpushbackFornow,however,it appearstohaveresonatedThenext stepforthePMandtheGovernmentwill bedetailingthehow
HowAreSingapore’sMain
PoliticalPartiesShapingUp fortheNextElection?
WiththenextGEapproachingand debateswirlingaroundwhatnew electoralboundarieswilllooklike,itis timelytolookatthekeypartiesand wheretheystandtoday
ThePAPisdealingwitheconomic problemsandsomeinternal controversies;theWorkers’Party(WP) seemstohavemovedpastitsTown Councilissuesbuttheirleaderstillfaces acourtcase;andtheProgress SingaporeParty(PSP)-thesurprise packagein2020-whileneedlingat times,havebeenrelativelylow-key
Currently,thePAPcurrentlyenjoysanet +54%positiveratingamongst SingaporeansTheirnetscoreisfairly consistentacrossageandgenderwhich indicatesthattheircut-throughisstill broad-based
TheWorkers’Partycurrentlyholdsanet +45positiverating,whiletheirnegatives -likethePAP-fallunder10%overall.The WP’snetpositivescoreshowsadistinct gendergap–menaremorefavourable thanwomenby11points(50%vs39%) TheWPalsoratesslightlyhigher amongstover50satpresent.
Theothermajoroppositionparty,the PSP,whosevoteexceeded10%atthe 2020GeneralElection,currentlyhasa net+10%positiveratingHowever,their netscoreis+20%amongunder35sand only+3%amongover50sThisis interestingandsuggeststhattheirpush onpublichousingrelatedissuesmaybe resonatingwithyoungervoterslooking togetafootholdonthepropertyladder.
TheSingaporeDemocraticAlliance (SDA)ratesbestamongtherestofthe partieswhocontestedGE2020,witha netpositiveratingof+12%
MessagingAnalysis:
BlackboxDiametrics
Whilethepotentialdateforthenext GeneralElectionisstillunknown,the politicallandscapeandrecent parliamentaryandmediadiscoursedo offergreaterclaritywithrespecttothe topicsandissuesthatwilllikelyemerge frontandcentre:
Costofliving
Housingaffordability
Governmentaccountability(ie Ministerial/partycontroversies)
LeadershipandTrust(i.e.New leaders,theWPCourtCase)
Employment(andhowitconnects slowerdomesticgrowth,impactof recentChinaeconomicissues, emergenceofAIeconomy,aging workforceetc)
Blackboxhasrecentlyusedaseriesof hypotheticalsinourpollingtomapout currentattitudesandtesttheelasticity ofvariousargumentsthatmightarise inacampaignsetting.
BlackboxDiametricsisourtoolthatwe usetoevaluatehowcounterarguments canchallengeprevailingwisdom, legacymessagingorpoliticaltalking pointsThisallowsustobettervisualise thecurrentcommunicationslandscape andadviseclientsastowhatcanbe supported,reinforced,neutralisedor negated,dependingontheirobjectives
Asaninitialhypotheticalexercise(given thatneitherthepre-electionjostlingor theelectioncampaignhaveyetstarted) wehaveusedDiametricstolookatpreGEmessagingacrossthreepossible dimensions:
StabilityandCertainty
PoliticalAttentiveness
NewLeadershipNarrative
Foreachofthesewethenconstructed statementsinboththepositiveandthe negativeandcreatedarguments-18in total-againsteachtoseewhichwere themostconvincingtopollrespondents
Hereisasummaryofwhatwefound:
Stabilityand Certainty
Political Attentiveness
NewLeadership Narrative
ThePAPhasservedSingaporewellandhasmadeitasuccessful countryforover50years Itdeservestocontinueastherulingparty ofSingaporefortheforeseeablefuture Thereisnobetteralternative
ManyoftheSingaporeGovernment’spoliciesandattitudeshave becomeoutofdate,andtheyonlyreactwhenthereisanoutcry fromcitizensonimportantissuessuchashousingeligibility,house prices,costoflivingandinflation
ThePrimeMinister,LawrenceWongbelievesthatSingaporeneedsa "majorreset"inordertorealisenewambitionsofcreatingasociety whereindividualscanflourishandsucceedintheirownways withoutgettingcaughtupintheratrace.Healsoarguesthat Singaporeans,too,mustjoininthiseffortbyundertakingamajor resetintheirattitudes
StabilityandCertainty
Thisdimensionholdupreasonablywell fortheGovernment.Rebuttalsthat suggestthePAP’sbestdaysarebehind itorthatthenewleadershipislackingin characteraretheleastconvincingto Singaporeanswhichindicatesthatthe PAPremainsaformidableinstitutionfor mostSingaporeans
Amorehard-hittingrebuttal(Diametrics +24%netscore),however,isthe argumentthatPAPleadersthemselves donotunderstandthedaytoday pressuresofcostoflivingthatfamilies arefacingThisrevealstheimportance forcurrentpoliticianstoberelatable and/orfocusedontangiblesolutions overhighlevelpolicyprescriptions.
DecisionIntelligence
Thegovernmentispotentially vulnerabletoemotionally-driven argumentsandvoxpopsonday todayconcerns,butfarlessso toargumentsthatitisnot capableorhasthewrong leadershiptoaddressthese concerns
PoliticalAttentiveness
Withthisdimension,wetesteda negativestatementtoevaluatewhether SingaporeansthinktheGovernmenthas becometooreactiveandonly addressesissueswhenpublicanxiety reachesameasurablelevel
Overall,ourresultsshowthatmost Singaporeansarelessconvincedwith argumentssuggestingthePAP Governmenthaspasseditsexpirydate -thisisnotamessagingwinner
Importantly,Singaporeansaremost convincedbyargumentsthatthe SingaporeGovernmentisdoingbetter thanmostotherGovernmentsaround theworldinaddressingdomesticissues, canbetrusted,andismakingtheright decisionsindrivingthecountry forwards
WheretheGovernmentfacessome potentialpushbackisonthelevelof (quantum)supportmeasuresithas providedThoseaged35-39,especially, arelessconvincedthattheGovernment isdoingenoughoncostoflivingand housing
DecisionIntelligence
Singaporeansfindithardtobe convincedthatthisisatired Government.(ThePAP’s successiontimingmaybe helping)PeoplestillseethePAP ascapableandaremorelikely toargueaboutwhethertheyare doingenough
Thoseaged35-49,especially,arelessconvinced thattheGovernmentisdoingenoughoncostof livingandhousing.
NewLeadershipNarrative
Finally,welookedatthePM’srecentNDR “reset”messagebyrestatinghiswords forsurveyrespondentsandthen exploringpotentialcounterarguments tohisclaim.
Onthisdimension,surveyresponses weremorenuancedandhighlightedto usboththesensitivitiesthePMtouched oninhisspeechandtheimportanceof howthiscalltoactionwillbeelaborated onanddecodedintherunuptothe GeneralElection
Firstandforemost,anycounterclaim thatSingaporeisnotinneedofsome resetisroundlyrejectedby Singaporeans(Diametrics-20%net rating)Tothatextent,thePMappearsto havehithomeonsomeunderlying sentiment
However,ourfindingssuggestthatthe PMmayhaveunderplayedhispointand notfullyappreciatedtheextenttowhich themessagehaslayers.
Lookingatthreeargumentsweputto respondents: Singaporeneedsmorethanareset. Itneedsmajorreforminkeyareasif itistokeepbeingsuccessful (Diametrics+45%netrating)
CertainSingaporeanscanflourish butitisbecomingharderfor ordinarySingaporeanstokeepup andsucceed(Diametrics+51%net rating)
ForSingaporeanstosucceedintheir “ownways”(asstatedbythePM)will requirehavingtorelookatourwhole approachtoeducation(Diametrics +68%netrating-amassivescore)
Assuch,itispossiblethatSingaporeans couldbeunderwhelmedbyincremental changesmasqueradingasaresetand, secondly,interpretaresetasmeaning thatcurrentperceiveddisparitieswillbe fullyaddressed.Expectationswillnowbe high
DecisionIntelligence
Ourinterpretationisthat Singaporeanscertainlybuyintothe ideaofre-examiningthecountry’s directiontoensureeveryoneis affordedtheopportunityto succeed.BlackboxDiametric rebuttalfindingssuggestthat Singaporeansexpectthiscallto actiontobemetwithmeaningful responsesintermsofdealingwith perceivedwealthandopportunity disparities.Furthermore,the invitationtoSingaporeanstolook beyondtraditionalaspirations necessitateswideracceptanceand support Willthisbeforthcoming?
WrapUp:WhereDoesThis LeaveUsToday?
BlackboxpollingpointstothePAPbeing inareasonablepositionatthistime Afterarockystarttotheyear,the smoothtransitiontoanewPrime Ministerandafairlywell-receivedNDR speechhaveprovidedtherulingparty withasolidlaunchpad
Atthesametime,theGovernmentisstill vulnerableonthehotissuesofcostof livingandhousingandwecanexpectto seealotmorepoliticaldebateonthese issuesImportantly,theGovernmentis seentobetacklingboth,but Singaporeansarequestioningasto whetheritisenough.
Moreinteresting,however,isPMWong’s boldcallforaSingaporeresetThiswas agambitthathasinitiallypaidoffand, arguably,hasservedtopersonaliseand differentiatehimButitisalsoclearfrom ourpollingthatitisaloaded,nuanced wordandopentowideinterpretation Howhemanagesandcommunicates hisdefinitionofresetinthemonths aheadmaytellusalotabouthowthe PAPintendstoengageitsrivalsatthe nextGeneralElection