DEFENCE How to defend New Zealand In a recent Wellington public lecture, Professor Hugh White discussed the historic challenges facing Australia and New Zealand in the way they each approach their security in the face of major-power rivalries in Asia. Dr Wayne Mapp offers his views.
Hugh White, in a recent lecture at the Centre of Strategic Studies at Victoria University, argued that the long-standing commitment of the United States to its Pacific allies was coming to an end. That in the face of growing Chinese power, not just in Asia but also in the western Pacific, the United States would withdraw, if not into full isolationism, at least to the point of abandoning the alliances it has built in world war two and in the years immediately thereafter. The deepest alliance guarantees, specifically to Australia, Japan and South Korea would count for nothing. To be fair, this might be overstating White’s proposition, but he was certainly of the view that the bedrock
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011 20
of the alliances will slowly crumble to shifting sands. White’s lecture was derived from his latest book, How to Defend Australia. In this book White argues that Australia has to adopt a maritime denial strategy. That means that Australia has currently over-invested in its surface fleet, whereas a better defensive approach would be to invest more heavily in submarines and airpower, especially maritime patrol and strike. He has made the same point previously in lectures and in private discussion, including with myself. Australia already intends to build twelve new submarines, so this could only mean that twenty-four would be more appropriate. This would make Australia the fourth in the world in terms of submarine power, behind the United States, Russia and China. Quite an ambition for a middle-ranked power. The reasoning behind this strategy is that the United States cannot be absolutely relied upon to fulfil its alliance commitments. Therefore, Australia has to be more capable in defending itself. In his lecture at Victoria, White extended the concept to New Zealand on the basis that both countries are effectively one strategic unit. White has real influence in Australian defence circles. While it is unlikely everything he says will be picked up by the Australian government, it is quite possible that some of it will be. Australia may well buy more F35 aircraft than it currently intends, along with more air tanker support and new basing arrangements. I would not
be surprised if the ultimate F35 buy extends up to 150 aircraft. Although the decision to buy the F35 binds Australia into the wider western industrial military complex, there really is no practical alternative aircraft. In any event the same could be said of all the twenty or so countries that will ultimately operate the F35. One hundred and fifty F35 aircraft would not be out of line for a country of 35 million people, which will be the likely Australian population in 2035. Despite White’s influence and reputation, does his overall strategic view have any real merit, in a way that should influence New Zealand policy makers? The essence of White’s thesis is that China will become the predominant power in Asia. From there he argues that the United States commitment to Australia will wane because the risk of war with China will be too great. This does rather conflate Asia with the Pacific. Although it might seem that Australia is a geographical extension of Asia, in truth Australia, along with New Zealand, is actually in the South West Pacific. Even the northern reaches of Australia are thousands of miles from continental Asia. White is probably right that China will supplant the United States in Asia, although it is hard to see that Japan, for instance, will become a Chinese lackey anytime soon. However, that is quite different to China supplanting the United States in the Pacific, even the western Pacific. Unlike China, the United States has sovereign territory right across the Line of Defence
