DEFENCE
The National Party’s newly proposed policy intent for Defence Even at “the most reasonably affordable standard”, an almost total replacement of naval ships, new maritime helicopters, replacement of strategic air mobility, and a new primary combat vehicle is a big shopping list, writes Editor-at-large Peter Greener. In my last article published in Line of Defence, “The New Zealand Defence Policy and Strategy Statement 2023; what are the implications for the Royal New Zealand Navy,” I wrote that we’d have to wait until after the upcoming General Election and into next year before we got to learn whether a future New Zealand government will be putting its money where its mouth is, particularly on naval capability. In the meantime, on 12 October, two days before the election, the National Party released their defence policy on their website. Whilst the policy is brief and short on detail, it nevertheless reinforces the consistently bipartisan approach of both major parties. Although it is apparent that we will still have to wait until well into next year before any finalisation of a defence capability plan, National have committed to maintaining “a strong, highly-trained, combat-ready Defence Force to keep New Zealand safe while promoting our interests and values overseas.” In addition they have made clear in their defence policy that they support the current defence procurement plan, and will ensure regular reviews. Their goal is to provide the Defence Force with the necessary equipment, ships, planes, and weapons “to the most reasonably affordable standard”. 20
As this article is being written coalition negotiations may have begun, but there is no indication as to what the final outcome might be. However, we know that ACT are committed to increasing defence spending to 1.5% of GDP over four years, with a long-term target of reaching 2% by 2030. New Zealand First’s Defence Policy matches this ambition, and commits to progressively increase real defence spending to reach 2% of GDP by 2030. So, whether there should be one, or two, partners in coalition it seems that National will have the support necessary to make significant capability decisions. And there are indeed some significant decisions that will need to be taken. Applying the phrase “most reasonably affordable standard” to the purchase of an almost total replacement of Navy ships, along with new maritime helicopters, replacement of the strategic air mobility for Air Force, and a new primary combat vehicle for Army does nothing to reduce the considerable costs involved. In 2020 in Line of Defence, I wrote about New Zealand’s future maritime helicopter options. An RFI for replacement maritime helicopters was issued on 26 April of this year, with an indicative
Dr Peter Greener
cost of more than $1 billion. Introduction into service was seen as necessary by 2028, though there has been speculation that they may not be maintainable for that long. In any case, a decision on the replacement aircraft will need to be made during the term of this incoming government. Because of the very long lead time, decisions will also need to be made to further the acquisition of new naval ships to replace the capabilities of eight current vessels. The lessons of Project Protector seem to have been learnt. Project Protector provided the Navy a multirole vessel, two offshore and four inshore patrol vessels, all of which had significant shortcomings. A remediation project, which had been Line of Defence
